New Rasmussen poll in FL puts Romney up by 8
posted at 9:15 am on January 26, 2012 by Ed Morrissey
Mitt Romney’s performance in Monday’s debate turned out to be a game-changer after all. Three days after a Rasmussen poll of likely Republican primary voters showed Newt Gingrich up by nine points, a new survey taken yesterday shows Romney has an eight-point lead heading into tonight’s CNN debate:
Mitt Romney has jumped back ahead in the fevered Florida Republican Primary race with his support back to where it was before Newt Gingrich’s big win Saturday in South Carolina.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters, taken Wednesday night, shows Romney with 39% support to Gingrich’s 31%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum earns 12%, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul runs last with nine percent (9%). Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.
That’s a ten-point drop for Gingrich since Sunday’s survey, and a seven-point gain for Romney. The momentum of the debate performance, and perhaps the renewed aggression on the campaign trail for Romney, seems to be firmly established in new polling. That makes tonight a must-win evening for Gingricg, and that probably means a lot of bloody knuckles for both men.
Let’s take a look at the differences in the internals. Very conservative voters still choose Gingrich as the stronger candidate against Obama, but that’s down to 47/34 from 56/24 in the earlier survey. Women had given a three-point edge to Romney on this question, but that has now jumped to 22 points, 52/30, and men now give Romney a nine-point lead where Gingrich had a double-digit advantage. The overall rating on this question now favors Romney by 15 points, 49/34, where Gingrich led by 3 on Sunday. Gingrich’s favorability didn’t change much at 63/35, but Romney’s increased to 73/25.
This looks like a very volatile race, though. A big debate stumble by Romney could reverse this yet again. However, with the tax issue off the table and every other line of attack likely to be a rerun, there’s a question about whether Gingrich can find another way to knock Romney off his stride as he did in South Carolina, or go after the media like he did to win in two debates there.
Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
Comment pages: « Previous 1 2 3 4 Next »
It’s not a crappy argument because what matters are the swing states.
Suffolk poll yesterday:
Despite Newt Gingrich’s momentum within the Republican Party, he would be a weaker contender than Mitt Romney in a general election contest against President Barack Obama, according to a Suffolk University/7NEWS (WSVN-Miami) poll of likely voters in Florida.
In Florida, Romney led Obama by 47 percent to 42 percent, while Obama topped Gingrich by 9 points, 49 percent to 40 percent.
In the popularity contest, Gingrich again did not fare well. He holds a 29 percent favorable and 58 percent unfavorable rating statewide among all likely voters. By contrast, Romney had a 44 percent favorable and 37 percent unfavorable rating. Romney’s popularity was lower among independents: 37 percent favorable and 36 percent unfavorable, while Gingrich’s popularity among independents imploded to 19 percent favorable with 70 percent unfavorable.
https://www.suffolk.edu/50641.html
haner on January 26, 2012 at 10:38 AM
Yep, this is exactly how each frontrunner was taken out in turn. In the case of Palin, they just exhausted even her core supporters after years of attacks. In the case of Perry and Cain, they knocked them out before any real support could solidify behind them. The same happened to Gingrich in Iowa.
The strategy is to convince the base that each new candidate they look at is “satan.” If Newt were to drop out and endorse Santorum, the exact same things would happen to him. We would hear that Santorum is “not a conservative” and that he is a “fascist” who wants to “ban sex.” It would probably work. Some of the things that ruined Perry, like Tardasil, were totally ridiculous but seem to have had an impact.
This is why some people think the media’s in the tank for Romney. His negatives are almost never discussed except outside of a few blogs and the opposing campaigns.
Yeah, that is what I think is going to happen. Romney’s support base is very shaky because he’s unpopular, so a steady stream of negative attacks right out of the gate after the convention is likely to knock him down in the low 40s and keep him there throughout the election. Using the MSM to wipe out his opposition is a deal with the devil he will probably regret.
I guarantee you if Romney loses, though, “Tea Party extremism” will be blamed.
Doomberg on January 26, 2012 at 10:39 AM
I think Romney can take credit for doing what was necessary to save those firms. He and his team made the perfect decisions that saved the companies from their current failed leadership.
I see Romney as a very accomplished fiscal conservative. Certainly he is a moderate republican on some social issues. But I do believe his conversion is genuine and trust that he will repeal Obamacare and return that responsibility to the states. For me it is a big deal that even though he supported a progressive program as governor of MA, he has also remained true to a belief in the tenth. I trust that his commitment to some federal restraint is better than any other choice we have.
Gingrich is a pathological liar. We have been accusing him of it for weeks and weeks. And now we find out today that he lied about providing witnesses to ABC news and he really wasn’t such a huge supporter of Reagan. Add that to his long, long, long history of lying, I do not trust one single word he says. Additionally, his erratic behavior and attacks from the left add to his diminishing credibility.
This leaves Paul, Santorum, and Romney as the only candidates I can morally support. As of this time, because I believe Romney to be more able to defeat Obama, he is my first choice.
csdeven on January 26, 2012 at 10:39 AM
Newt’s problem is the same thing we warn our children against “don’t lie because you can never keep track of what you said”.
Newt has said so many things in the heat of the moment to get the response he desires that he has completely lost track of whether he for Goldwater or against, for Reagan or against, for a mandate or against……
Tater Salad on January 26, 2012 at 10:40 AM
i have a feeling that in tonight’s debate that the Newt that doesn’t tolerate anyone’s bullsh_t will be making a return. he’s been puting up with so much from all sides this week. come on Newt……knock ‘em out. i’m drooling just thinking about it.
GhoulAid on January 26, 2012 at 10:40 AM
Obama will trounce Hugo Drax by 15 points.
EddieC on January 26, 2012 at 10:41 AM
The poll numbers will go up and down during this primary season.
The media and the repub estab/pundits are throwing everything but the kitchen sink at Newt this week trying to derail his surge.
However, due to the internet along with neighborly political chats the truth will leak its way to the voters. “Newt was cleared
on all ethic charges – you mean, just like Palin!”, etc. “Where
are Cain’s accusers?”.
It is still conservative versus liberal. Research your choice and
vote accordingly.
Amjean on January 26, 2012 at 10:42 AM
Rasmussen is a legit poll, as is Quinnipcuktic (whatever). It is when Hot Air uses each and every poll is when I become less inclined to read.
Gallup polls are flavor of the day type of polls and they made their bones on public perception surveys and are not necessarily good polls for elections.
When hotair analyzes the sampling, quoting each and every poll is a lot better.
bumsteaddithers on January 26, 2012 at 10:43 AM
you lie, and he never said that, that was obama
runner on January 26, 2012 at 10:43 AM
Funny now, but in 2008 I concluded he was the best choice of that bunch and voted for him. Over the last four years, I’ve been pretty disappointed as he and others in our party sat silently by, while 0bama and his cohorts did their thing.
I suppose I’ll fall in line again, as I always do… but, I’m getting real sick and tired of RINO squishes.
TitularHead on January 26, 2012 at 10:43 AM
Interestingly enough, you can easily make the argument that Mitt is more conservative than Newt, and that is not saying much.
Tater Salad on January 26, 2012 at 10:44 AM
That made me laugh, thank you!
Night Owl on January 26, 2012 at 10:45 AM
Has anyone noticed that the primary source of the informtion about Gingrich dissing Reagan is coming from Elliot Abrams? Abrams was censured by the U.S. District Court of Appeals in 1997 for three instances of giving false information. Not that Abrams probably isn’t a good guy and all that, what with launching his attack through National Review Online, but it seems he can be a little loose with the truth when excited or under pressure.
Scriptor on January 26, 2012 at 10:45 AM
Don’t you mean the class warfare campaign Newt Gingrich has been running?
Electability through the general IS what Romney supporters are considering…Newt fans are not. He tees off on the media during a debate, he’s deemed a “fighter”, and that’s it.
changer1701 on January 26, 2012 at 10:46 AM
Newt is enjoyable to listen to when he is talking about history. But have you listened to his appearance on Rush when he was explaining his comments about “right-wing social engineering”? He was tying himself in knots to walk back his comments. I couldn’t follow it. Maybe he is not consistently good at debating. I prefer Romney because he has accomplished things in the private sector, and I don’t care how much money he makes. He will be good for the economy. And Obama is going to lose in a landslide. Or so says Rush.
Paddington on January 26, 2012 at 10:46 AM
You might want to check this article out, take it for what you will. I think is plain to see what “message Drudge is sending.
http://www.damndirtyrino.com/2011/10/04/the-drudge-romney-axis/
MontanaMmmm on January 26, 2012 at 10:46 AM
Interestingly enough, you can easily make the argument that Mitt is more conservative than Newt, and that is not saying much.
Tater Salad on January 26, 2012 at 10:44 AM
Go ahead. And please compare each candidate’s Conservative accomplishments. Thanks in advance.
kingsjester on January 26, 2012 at 10:47 AM
Are you saying that Romney’s background shows that he will simply stop the decline and make no improvements?
csdeven on January 26, 2012 at 10:47 AM
Thanks for your honesty, however I think the non-Newt crowd feels the same about Newts conservative credentials.
Tater Salad on January 26, 2012 at 10:47 AM
The candidate I approve is the one facing Obama. Palin was never going to accomplish that. I was personally attacked for that position. After that all bets were off and every single Palin loon (not the nice respectful supporters) didn’t get one single consideration from me.
You earn respect, you don’t demand it.
csdeven on January 26, 2012 at 9:54 AM
Noone wants your respect. Get over yourself.
Amjean on January 26, 2012 at 10:49 AM
I was a big Giuliani supporter, but I was a Super Tuesday state so he was out by the time I got to vote so I ended up voting for Romney. I disliked both McCain and Huckabee and was sort of “meh” about Romney so I went with him. This time around none of the candidates I would have been excited about ended up running. I was interested in Bachmann, but once she was out I went to Romney.
athenanyc on January 26, 2012 at 10:49 AM
I think Newt made a mistake doing the moon colony thing yesterday. Not because it’s not a laudable goal or that most of his space ideas have to do with private enterprise.
the reason he made a mistake is that when asked about and where will the money come from he will have to explain it.
that will waste time he could be pouncing on Romney.
gerrym51 on January 26, 2012 at 10:49 AM
Well, I don’t know any RP supporters except on blogs I read. I must say that is a scary thought.
Okay, Ron Paul for Fed chair! Will that work?
csdeven on January 26, 2012 at 10:49 AM
only if you call campaigning for and providing financial support to Rubio, Haley, Brown and a bunch of other republicans, headlining fundraiser for people like John Thune, Tom Price, Phil Gingrey in 2010, sitting by
runner on January 26, 2012 at 10:50 AM
It is still conservative versus liberal. Research your choice and
vote accordingly.
Amjean on January 26, 2012 at 10:42 AM
Interestingly enough, you can easily make the argument that Mitt is more conservative than Newt, and that is not saying much.
Tater Salad on January 26, 2012 at 10:44 AM
You can make the argument, however, it won’t fly.
Amjean on January 26, 2012 at 10:50 AM
Drudge hasn’t exactly been subtle lately.
TitularHead on January 26, 2012 at 10:50 AM
cano,
http://www.newsobserver.com/2011/11/28/1676707/3-perdue-associates-indicted.html
hawkdriver on January 26, 2012 at 10:00 AM
hawkdriver:Thanks for the link,I’m losing my mind,I posted the
indictment thingy,months ago..ugh!:)
canopfor on January 26, 2012 at 10:50 AM
We know what Newty and Teddy had in common… Infidelity and open marriages FTW!
cicerone on January 26, 2012 at 10:50 AM
Let’s just say, if an opportunity arises to pounce, particularly if Gingrich continues on with his pious baloney/outrageous outrage over Romney’s blind trust having held Freddie/Fannie bonds…
Buy Danish on January 26, 2012 at 10:50 AM
Oh, that would work like a charm.
JohnGalt23 on January 26, 2012 at 10:52 AM
The Conservative base is not going to turn out for Romney, who many will consider a Socialist and no different than obama.
Newt can frame the debate in a very sharp contrast to Obama and He’s turnign the Class Warfare around on the Dems and making it the little guy vs. the “Elites” in media/washington, etc.
jp on January 26, 2012 at 10:52 AM
Interestingly enough, you can easily make the argument that Mitt is more conservative than Newt, and that is not saying much.
Tater Salad on January 26, 2012 at 10:44 AM
Go ahead. And please compare each candidate’s Conservative accomplishments. Thanks in advance.
kingsjester on January 26, 2012 at 10:47 AM
Romney is the only candidate in the race to have actually overseen the shrinking the size of government (not just some pseudo reduce the rate of growth). He actually vetoed an embryonic stem cell bill, whereas Newt fought for the research.
How about those two for starters?
Tater Salad on January 26, 2012 at 10:52 AM
Please educate me further on this point. It is my understanding that the MA budget grew 14.1% during the Romney years. Am I misinformed?
ElectricPhase on January 26, 2012 at 10:52 AM
I wasn’t aware that Soros was running for the GOP nomination. Interesting…
cicerone on January 26, 2012 at 10:52 AM
All Newt has to do is run a commercial showing how Romney lied about him resigning, how he was cleared and got his money back, and what he forced Clinton to do on the budgets and welfare reform.
Hard Right on January 26, 2012 at 10:53 AM
Ha!!! Drudge is now featuring the 1998 story about Newt’s hypocritical attack on Clinton over l’affaire Lewisnky I repeatedly linked to days ago!
Buy Danish on January 26, 2012 at 10:54 AM
SPEWT!
M240H on January 26, 2012 at 10:54 AM
I would happily support him for that or Secretary of Treasury. Just as long as he’s kept away from the foreign policy and defense spending controls.
Doomberg on January 26, 2012 at 10:54 AM
How about those two for starters?
Tater Salad on January 26, 2012 at 10:52 AM
Provide the links corroborating how he shrunk the size of Massachusetts government by installing a state-run healthcare system, please.
kingsjester on January 26, 2012 at 10:54 AM
Both were governors of states, and as such had records of governance. Both are or were leading candidates for the GOP’s nomination for POTUS.
Denying the comparison makes you look foolish.
As I said, I’m curious. I’m not a Mitt supporter. They can defend their guy just fine.
I just want to know what Reagan’s conservative accomplishments were prior to being POTUS. Because, considering CA’s political outlook (at the time) and MA’s political outlook (at the time), their records don’t appear all that dissimilar.
JohnGalt23 on January 26, 2012 at 10:56 AM
I’m not going to argue with you there. Newt’s done some good, done some bad. Maybe more good than bad. I’m not even real sure about that.
Here’s the big three for me: He’s throwing a wrench in the establishment cogs (at least that slows down the process, allows a little more vetting, and perhaps gives the base a chance to push all these squishes a little more to the right);
Two, he got Perry and Palin on board. That tells me something;
Three, he ain’t Mitt.
That’s about all I got.
TitularHead on January 26, 2012 at 10:56 AM
Hell, at this point you don’t even have to read the article. Everytime you flip to Drudge, a new batch of headlines guaranteed to scare the living poopies out of the masses pops up: “GINGRICH ATE PET CAT IN 1979!” “HUGO CHAVEZ SAYS GINGRICH DISSED GEORGE WASHINGTON!” “GINGRICH SWAM WITHOUT A BATHING SUIT IN 1945!” and, “Halo mysterously appears around Romney’s head, while Murdoch, Ailes, Priebus, Bushes I and II, plus the entire Union League Club of New York, and the Yale Club of Boston Kneel in Awe!”
It’s reaching overkill. But we peasants are sure stupid, they have to pound the point home, y’know
Scriptor on January 26, 2012 at 10:57 AM
Absurd. Adopting class warfare tactics does not qualify as “turning it around.” And any so-called “Conservative” who can’t tell the difference between any of the GOP candidates and Obama just needs to take a deep breath, stop hyperventilating and use the brain God gave them.
cicerone on January 26, 2012 at 10:58 AM
Interestingly enough, you can easily make the argument that Mitt is more conservative than Newt, and that is not saying much.
Tater Salad on January 26, 2012 at 10:44 AM
Go ahead. And please compare each candidate’s Conservative accomplishments. Thanks in advance.
kingsjester on January 26, 2012 at 10:47 AM
Romney is the only candidate in the race to have actually overseen the shrinking the size of government (not just some pseudo reduce the rate of growth). He actually vetoed an embryonic stem cell bill, whereas Newt fought for the research.
How about those two for starters?
Tater Salad on January 26, 2012 at 10:52 AM
Give us more please!
By the way how much money did Romney and his friends throw at
the Olympics in order to provide the save?
Amjean on January 26, 2012 at 11:00 AM
Denying the comparison makes you look foolish.
JohnGalt23 on January 26, 2012 at 10:56 AM
Not as much as you circling around my request to provide a list of Romney’s Conservative accomplishments.
kingsjester on January 26, 2012 at 11:01 AM
Yup. Romney has made some poor policy decisions, but has always advocated federalism. When Romney signed the Mass health care law, he stated that is was a good plan for his state, but not a good federal model. When Newt was applauding Romney for signing the health care law, Newt held it up as a good model for the nation.
Romney has always been pro states rights, Newt has always been pro central planning.
HarryBackside on January 26, 2012 at 11:02 AM
glad drudge is on Mitts side-(until he’s not)
gerry-mittbot-looking for divine guidance
gerrym51 on January 26, 2012 at 11:02 AM
Here is the rebuttal on the anti Reagan/Newt theme coming out
of the horses behinds – go to gateway.com to see the video -
It should be clear by now that the elites in the Republican Party will do and say anything to destroy Newt Gingrich or anyone else who challenges the Romney machine. Drudge, Coulter, Britt Hume, the folks at National Review, Jen Rubin etc. are just a few of the prominent conservatives trying to not only persuade you that Romney is some sort of conservative, but that Newt Gingrich, Reagan’s Young Lieutenant, is some kind of squish.
Legal Insurrection today sets the record straight on the Gingrich record. Professor Jacobson dug up this video from 1995 where Nancy Reagan tells a conservative audience that,
“Ronnie turned the torch over to Newt.”
You’ll have to decide for yourself how much of the latest Romney smear campaign you’re going to believe but as Jeffrey Lord writes, “Quite to the contrary of the Romney message, Newt Gingrich was in fact one of Reagan’s Young Lieutenants.“
Amjean on January 26, 2012 at 11:04 AM
Conservative base member here. Gladly voting for Romney. Class warfare is creepy. It demeens those who buy into it. It also manipulates them in an unbecoming way. Sad.
Paddington on January 26, 2012 at 11:04 AM
Once again, I’m not here to defend Mitt Romney. He has his own supporters.
But I will point out disingenuous attacks when they are so obvious. The fact that you cannot provide a similar list for Reagan pretty well points out the cynicism of your argument.
Thanks for playing.
JohnGalt23 on January 26, 2012 at 11:04 AM
LOL!!!
angreyed keeping it classy.
Gunlock Bill on January 26, 2012 at 11:05 AM
are you talking about newt here, who is educating everyone about the evils of capital, or the plight of the 99% suffering under the burden of swiss bank accounts, or how selling “historical” access to politicians is the same as investing in a muni fund ? that would be an uphill battle, i agree
runner on January 26, 2012 at 11:07 AM
It’ll be interesting. I wonder if Newt will go there, considering how the Freddie thing has apparently hurt him. Probably, as he can’t help himself.
I expect a lot of grandstanding and red meat outrage. ‘Cause, apparently, that’s how we choose nominees now.
changer1701 on January 26, 2012 at 11:07 AM
But I will point out disingenuous attacks when they are so obvious. The fact that you cannot provide a similar list for Reagan pretty well points out the cynicism of your argument.
Thanks for playing.
JohnGalt23 on January 26, 2012 at 11:04 AM
Reagan’s not running, genius. His sane son supports Newt. Back to you.
kingsjester on January 26, 2012 at 11:08 AM
Well, the perception is that the attacks are chicken/egg type events. For me, I did not start after Palin supporters until they went after me. That has been going on since last spring when I expressed my admiration for her, but doubted she could be elected. I feel her best role is to help the down ticket candidates like she did in 2010. That wasn’t good enough and we were off to the races. I continue to poke those loons who have switched from positive, albeit rabid, Palin support, to full on Romney hate by supporting Gingrich when he is the most corrupt politician we have in the race. It is completely baffling.
csdeven on January 26, 2012 at 11:08 AM
Last paragraph of your article
“There’s a huge problem with the way the press is looking at these ads,” Crawford said. While they may “acknowledge” or “address” Lewinsky, she said, “these ads are not about Monicagate. They are about something a lot bigger than the president.”
It is folly to accept 1998 reporting on republican strategy now as it was then. Ceci Connoly is not exactly a down the middle journalist and none that were reporting were. As I mentioned in a previous post, one that was there (Tom Delay) said Newt thought going after Clinton was a bad idea for the very reason that article exhibits. The entire issue was framed as sex and not perjury. Was then and is now.
Absolutely incredible Newt is carrying Clinton’s baggage along with his own still. We still have our own carrying the media’s take. This is the biggest reason Newt is resonating to me. He is the only one willing to counter their sludge pile.
DanMan on January 26, 2012 at 11:08 AM
Newt and Romney are the same. Gingrich has supported every issue that people criticize Romney for. Gingrich was one of the biggest cheerleaders for RomneyCare, and if he ever had the sack to run for governor, he too would have tried to pass a health care law with an individual mandate.
If Newt is such a lion of Conservativism, where are the hordes of GOP House members who served with Newt in the 90′s, who are voicing their support for him?
HarryBackside on January 26, 2012 at 11:11 AM
And Goldwater’s son supports Ron Paul.
Of course, that wouldn’t matter to an old Rockefeller Republican like Newt, now would it?
JohnGalt23 on January 26, 2012 at 11:12 AM
My gentle Puck, come hither. Thou rememb’rest
Since once I sat upon a promontory
And heard a mermaid on a dolphin’s back
Uttering such dulcet and harmonious breath
That the rude sea grew civil at her song
And certain stars shot madly from their spheres
To hear the sea-maid’s music.
— A Midsummer Night’s Dream
(Ron Paul Secretary of Treasury) = (certain stars shooting madly from their spheres)
… a few apocalyptic Bible verses came to mind too. :) Anyway, the universe would look mugged, I know that.
Let’s do it!
Axe on January 26, 2012 at 11:13 AM
heh. No kidding, you think he might just back the truck up juuuust a little as not to appear in the tank.
MontanaMmmm on January 26, 2012 at 11:14 AM
x 10
Rovin on January 26, 2012 at 11:14 AM
at least that’s how Newt will win
gerrym51 on January 26, 2012 at 11:14 AM
JohnGalt23 on January 26, 2012 at 11:12 AM
So, you’re admitting that Mitt has no Conservative accomplishments, huh?
kingsjester on January 26, 2012 at 11:15 AM
Funny, the way Newt was trying to wrap himself in the mantle of the man he insulted repeatedly through his Administration, I thought Reagan was already on Newt’s ticket.
Well, maybe Newt can settle for the namesake of his real GOP hero, and get Jay Rockefeller to run with him. More suited to his philosophy than Reagan, really.
JohnGalt23 on January 26, 2012 at 11:15 AM
It’s hard to tell from the polls which is more effective this cycle: the negative advertising or the debates. Likely both in conjunction, the advertising feeding into the debates (providing the moderators with gotcha possibilities) the debates feeding into the advertising (the gotchas that worked in the debates is amplified in the advertising). So, as someone pointed out upthread, there’s a sort of naturel cycle or pulse or rhythm to the candidates’ rises and falls in the polls.
Problem for Newt was, heading into the Florida cycle, his biggest debate triumphs were gotchas against… the media, personified in the moderators. He really couldn’t feed that into follow-up ads against Romney, and so spent the week floundering around on audience participation in debates, immigration, Nancy “I got the goods” II, Cayman Islands, and moon colonies, but principally fending off a flood of negative stories generated in large part by the media (partly motivated by having been gotcha’d in the debates). So Newt was unable to ride the wave through the advertising cycle leading into the next debate, and his rising tide has collapsed.
I know it’s argued that Romney defeated Gingrich in the last Florida debate on Freddie Mac, but I think his positives from the debate (if anyone stayed awake through it) had more to do with a long-needed realization by voters that he does fight, and on the occasion can rise to the same level of feistiness for which Gingrich is admired. That was reassuring because it’s going to be needed against the media, and against Obama in debate, in the general. He also benefited from having already outspent Gingrich and everyone else by $5 million in ad campaigning before Gingrich even got started. He’s poured in another $5 million so it’s not entirely surprising that he’s been riding a higher wave since the last debate.
I think the debates matter enormously this cycle, and the last debate of the primary matters most. Florida is practically make-or-break for both candidates so I think tonight will be riotous. Also fascinatingly asymmetrical with Newt simultaneously debating the media (“let my people roar”) AND Romney, Romney focussed entirely on Newt. Question is, will Romney revert to the above-it-all Romney of most of this campaign, or the all-new-Bachman-debate-coach-honed “aggressive fighting Romney”? I think whoever “wins” this debate wins Florida.
de rigueur on January 26, 2012 at 11:16 AM
JohnGalt23 on January 26, 2012 at 11:15 AM
Aren’t you tired of playing duck and cover? Admit that Romney’s not a Conservative and get it over with, or cite Mitt’s Conservative accomplishments.
It’s not a difficult request.
kingsjester on January 26, 2012 at 11:19 AM
I believe it’s a combo of his taxes and he is taking a huge hit from conservatives in the media.
rubberneck on January 26, 2012 at 11:19 AM
There’s a creepy trend round here of copying and storing people’s posts until the moment you can later unload them in a big dump like that. Now, of course, you’re right. Ed calling for civility is akin to George Wallace attending an NAACP meeting, but still how long did it take you to find all those?
libfreeordie on January 26, 2012 at 11:20 AM
let the mud fly tonight
nparga23 on January 26, 2012 at 11:26 AM
..suggest you loosen up the sweat band on your tin foil hat, old son. Sit down, relax, and enjoy the ride. it’s only life; no one gets out alive.
The War Planner on January 26, 2012 at 11:30 AM
I find it disturbing that you continue to frame everything in terms of your experience with some Palin supporters. That acrimony went in both directions. For me, it became ancient history the moment Palin chose not to run.
That aside, the core of our disagreement consists of two unsupported statements:
- “Gingrich [...] is the most corrupt politician we have in the race.”
Aside from the discredited work of Democrat smear merchants who spent years trying to take Gingrich down, what evidence is there of Gingrich being corrupt?
- “I see Romney as a very accomplished fiscal conservative.”
Using his public sector record of increasing his state’s budget by 14.1% and enacting the blueprint for Obamacare, can you make a case that Romney would be a better standard bearer for fiscal conservatives than Gingrich?
ElectricPhase on January 26, 2012 at 11:31 AM
Like Neutron Newt was drooling after that @ss whoppin’ Ropmney laid on him Monday?
“Duuuuh, duuuuh, duuuuuh…”
csdeven on January 26, 2012 at 11:31 AM
Bill, like so many here, find BelligerentEd’s comments rankling. It’s just our way of repaying the love. besides, I remember several instances of FuriousEd doing the same thing — although I did not save them.
The War Planner on January 26, 2012 at 11:35 AM
I never really liked Ann Coulter until recently.
captn2fat on January 26, 2012 at 11:35 AM
Hahaha….I imagine hundreds of corrupt insiders in a long line for the guillotine.
Does that make me mean?
csdeven on January 26, 2012 at 11:38 AM
Explain this to the folks, Mr. Drudge.
Schadenfreude on January 26, 2012 at 11:40 AM
Romney is the phantom of Obama.
Schadenfreude on January 26, 2012 at 11:40 AM
Budgets do grow in states with an 85% dem majority. But he did balance the budget for 4 years and established a rainy day fund. He also signed 800 vetoes.
I cannot credibly speak to the 14% increase. I will research it. If I forget, ask me later.
csdeven on January 26, 2012 at 11:41 AM
Puh. I might.
Axe on January 26, 2012 at 11:41 AM
csedeven, please answere this in specifics:
Schadenfreude on January 26, 2012 at 11:43 AM
You are mighty forgiving for someone who lies to your face. Me, not so much.
rubberneck on January 26, 2012 at 11:43 AM
Some Romney campaign slogans:
*Romney 2012: In Your Heart, You Know He’s White
*Romney 2012: Because He Looks Like the Guy Who Laid You Off
*Romney 2012: He Knows How to Change His Mind
*Romney 2012: A Shining City on a Hill near San Diego
*Romney 2012: Still The Whitest Man in The Room
*Romney 2012: When it comes to Money, Too Much is Never Enough
*Romney 2012: Let’s Get The Third Party Started
Emperor Norton on January 26, 2012 at 11:43 AM
“Obama/me have the same mentor, Alinsky” — Romney 2012
Schadenfreude on January 26, 2012 at 11:44 AM
An example are these community boards to cull the “bad” illegals from the “good” illegals that Gingrich is promoting. More bureaucracy.
csdeven on January 26, 2012 at 11:44 AM
Yours is a straw man request.
Answer his question. Name off Reagan’s accomplishments as Governor I believe is the question?
csdeven on January 26, 2012 at 11:49 AM
look who the establishment skunk fart are supporting, Romneycare. he of;
*Implementing the model for the largest sociolistic mandate in the history of the world. That would be Romneycare!
*Romneycare, the turd, opens up 12 accounts in the Cayman Islands to shelter his $500 million fortune, in the meantime this azzwipe raises our taxes in ma. over $500 million. Hypocrite!
*Been running for president for 6 years after his one term in office. the last year of that term, 2006, he was out of state campaigning for president 212 days out of 11 months.
*On the issues, he is the most liberal GOP candidate in my lifetime. For Every bailout (Wall street owned), gay marriage, abortion, global warming, gun control, cap & tax, etc.
*Appointed the most liberal judges in the history OF FREAKIN MASSACHUSETTS
I could go on
Now you Romneycare rumpswabs, support this crap record. You can’t, you’ll do the usual, you’ll make every excuse possible.
Well willard azz sniffers, I live in ma. and voted for the fraud in 2002. He is a cancer, he will single handedly destroy the conservative movement!!!
Danielvito on January 26, 2012 at 11:50 AM
I’m no Romney fan, but Gosh that was dumb.
ElectricPhase on January 26, 2012 at 11:51 AM
I don’t think he is particularly conservative. I don’t think I ever claimed he was. I want my conservative candidate cutting hundreds of billions from the budget yesterday, and there’s only one guy left willing to do that.
But you ask for some laundry list of accomplishments. I would ask the same of you of someone we can all agree was a conservative. And you have been unable to do so. Probably because, by the realities of the state he governed at the time, and judged through the lens of today’s conservatism, Reagan really didn’t have much of a list of conservative accomplishments either.
Which makes your argument a fairly weak and cynical one.
JohnGalt23 on January 26, 2012 at 11:54 AM
Okay, I’m gonna say it then shut up.
That huge bump in Florida, was likely largely an illusion. Most of those polls were done on Saturday and Sunday, days when Gingrich was dominating the news cycle. If you look at the internals of the polls over the past few weeks, Romney starts out about where he is now, then abruptly loses ground for a few days when Gingrich is dominating the news cycle, and finally he almost immediately shoots back up.
I’m certain the debate performance on Monday helped, but this polling behavior would seem to suggest it would’ve moved back in that direction sooner or later anyway.
The problem, is that Gingrich is simply a fundamentally broken candidate. He does okay during debates, but he’s a very poor campaigner, frequently gets caught up in distortions of the truth, and has more baggage than a 747.
He can win the occasional state be making a mad dash at the right time, but he’s incapable of maintaining any sort of momentum, let alone keeping his lead.
Now, it is possible that tonight he could knock it out of the park and regain momentum, but I wouldn’t count on it. While the electorate is volatile, in South Carolina Gingrich was helped just as much by Romneys weak performance as he was his own debate performances.
Basically, that was Romneys worst week on record, and his own ability to adapt to the situation likely convinced many voters that he was too weak a debater to win a general election.
Chances are you will not see as weak a performance out of Romney tonight. This doesn’t mean that Newt cannot do well as well, but last week was Newts best debate performances, while simultaneously it was Romneys worst. We’re unlikely to see that specific combination tonight, so its unrealistic to expect Gingrich to move like he did last week.
Another factor working against Newts favor, is the lobbyist issue. Gingrich’s defense on the lobbyist issue has hurt him almost as much as his actual lobbying has. He keeps making an argument that he wasn’t legally a lobbyist, despite the fact that he clearly engaged in activities that most people consider to be clear lobbying. This defense could best be described as lawyer like, it reeks of dishonesty to most people and undermines Gingrich’s credibility. The problem, is that there isn’t really any way Gingrich can take this off the table. He cannot change his defense at this point, because the only other defense is a defense of lobbying in general, which would at the very least hurt him in the short run, and at worst could completely destroy him as a candidate.
Finally, there is the simple fact that Gingrich is being put under closer scrutiny this week. South Carolina was more a vote against Romney than a vote for Gingrich, and the problem now is that people now need to make the leap from opposing Romney to supporting Gingrich. With Gingrich’s baggage, poor campaigning, and own leftist tendencies, this is a difficult leap for some people to make. Santorum would have an easier time convincing people to go from opposing Romney to supporting him, but for whatever reason he hasn’t been able to garner sufficient momentum for that.
So in short, I guess what I’m saying is that we shouldn’t expect a repeat of South Carolina. That was a politically unprecedented event that would be difficult to reproduce even under ideal circumstances, and the circumstances just aren’t ideal at the moment.
Gingrich could still win of course, but if he did it’d probably be a squeaker rather than a blowout.
WolvenOne on January 26, 2012 at 11:54 AM
Er…maybe it’s because Romney is running a sane campaign, keeping gaffes to a minimum, and continually turns the conversation to attack Obama.
Newt? He talks about colonists on the moon declaring statehood.
If reporting the facts makes one “GOP Establishment”, then yeah, Hot Air is that.
captn2fat on January 26, 2012 at 11:55 AM
This is a little off track, Townhall Greg Hengler has a video of Nancy Reagan giving speech ,back in 1995. In the speech she states that Barry(Goldwater) gave the torch to Ronnie(Reagan) and Ronnie has given the torch to Newt. If anyone would know what Reagan though about Newtit would be Nancy, NOT COULTER,DRUDGE,ABRAMS or anyone else. It will be interesting to see what spin they try to put on this. Drudge is still running the anti Reagan Newt stories. I don’t know if this changes things in Fl. for Romney? but That sounds like a Reagan Endorsment of Newt.If I was Newt, I think I’d run with this.Anyway we’ll find out soon enough.
pamiam on January 26, 2012 at 11:59 AM
Drudge is just another RINO and his rabid BS LIES DRIVEN headlines in recent days is just another sign of desperation from the Romney camp. I’ll take Reagan’s son’s and wife’s statements any day of the week over incompetent, sold out political hacks that dominate the stage these days and certainly over herd mentality posters who can’t seem to understand simple facts. The one who RINO Establishment doesn’t want is THE ONE we must have in the general.
Read the link to Illegal Insurrection, pretty eye opening, not that I needed any “validation” of my views of Newt as I remember him back to early ’90s. I saw some derision of HA on other blogs and at first I did not understand why, it is pretty clear now the reasons. When HA contributors themselves lead the clueless brigade with constant pro-Romney misguided views (to be very polite) why should anyone expect the herd to act any differently.
riddick on January 26, 2012 at 12:01 PM
So Newt reverted back to OWS today in Tampa.
galtani on January 26, 2012 at 12:02 PM
..no sarcasm here: you should really, really consider blogging. Your writing is very cogent and coherent and entertaining (in a good sense).
The War Planner on January 26, 2012 at 12:02 PM
Newt gains when he attacks Obama. Romney will do the same thing. People don’t want to hear anything but attacks on Obama. PERIOD.
Voter from WA State on January 26, 2012 at 12:06 PM
Definition of “RINO” . . . anyone who does not agree with me 100% of the time on 100% of all issues.
Voter from WA State on January 26, 2012 at 12:08 PM
Newt is a sick embarrassment.
But, this campaign has taught me things.
The talk show blowhards (Rush, Levin) are people that I do not agree with. I suspected this when they shilled for that clown half-term Palin, they confirmed it during this primary. I dont listen to them anymore…and never will. They want Obama to win…it helps with their sales.
The right wing blogger class is not too bright and hypocritical. People like Erikson who writes for RedState.com and even HotGas. I have nothing in common with these people. Their analysis is comical and cartoonish.
I didnt check my “character matters” mantra at the door when the guy winning the nomination happened to me Mormon. Make no mistake…that is his problem. The party has a significant number, even if its a minority, of evangelicals that wont vote for a Mormon. Liberal democrats dont care….ever hear them talk bad about Harry Reid. No, this is a particular problem with our party.
Jailbreak on January 26, 2012 at 12:08 PM
Maybe it was over your head.
If you’d like it explained, send me an e-mail.
Emperor Norton on January 26, 2012 at 12:08 PM
How can childish stupidity be over somebody’s head. You can POSSIBLY think that your stupid post was capable of being over somebody’s head. My 8th grade daughter would be embarrassed to write something that silly and void of substance. Yes, I want fries with that.
Jailbreak on January 26, 2012 at 12:13 PM
Comment pages: « Previous 1 2 3 4 Next »