Seven things we learned in South Carolina

posted at 1:30 pm on January 22, 2012 by Jazz Shaw

Now that the dust is beginning to settle in South Carolina and the candidates – with their press pack trains in tow – have fled to Florida, we’ve reached a rather remarkable juncture in the battle of 2012. With that in mind, it’s worth taking a moment to see where we stand and what, if anything, we learned in the Palmetto State on Saturday night. Ed already weighed in with some of this thoughts, and supporters of various candidates have begun chiming in as well. From Erick Erickson to Doug Ross, everyone is trying to redefine the race for roughly the millionth time so far.

But what did the South Carolina primary really teach us? I think there’s a few important lessons which came clear after the polls closed. Here are a few.

1. Debates and earned media still matter – possibly more than ever

There has been a lot of carping about Super PACs and the overwhelming effect of “big money” in the campaign. (In fact, that’s what is generally blamed for Newt’s poor showing in Iowa.) Rasmussen this week said a majority want campaign finance laws dredged up yet again. This has been matched by the griping (including mine) over the large number of debates, with questions as to whether or not anyone was even paying attention to them anymore, aside from hard core political nerds and geeks. South Carolina should put that to rest.

In exit polls, 2/3 of primary voters said that not only did they watch the debates, but they affected their decision as to who they selected. This obviously benefited Newt Gingrich in the extreme with his strong performances. In contrast to that, Mitt’s Super PAC outspent Newt’s by a wide margin. Which had more impact? The returns speak for themselves. People are watching and judging for themselves, frequently shrugging off the negative ad blitzes.

2. The anti-establishment GOP meme is not just a meme

I’m reminded of a scene from the cult classic film, Princess Bride. “Inevitable. You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.” Newt Gingrich may not be the Conservative Ideal for many in the base and his record (or “baggage” if you prefer) may give many pause in terms of the general election. But one thing he’s not is Mitt Romney. Another thing he’s not is the establishment candidate. South Carolina’s history in the modern era of politics should teach us that they are, if nothing else, a generally pragmatic group. If any early state was going to go with the candidate they were “told” was the inevitable winner, it would have been them. But let’s face it… Mitt got his backside handed to him in a fairly decisive fashion. This came in spite of endorsements from prominent “establishment” figures up and down the line, as well as those of ultraconservative, Tea Party favorites. It didn’t matter in the end. The running theme of primary voters being tired of being “told who to vote for” can no longer be taken as a Tea Party talking point, in my opinion. We now have solid voter data to back it up.

3. Mitt Romney is made of flesh and blood

Romney had a double digit lead in South Carolina as little as a fortnight before the voting began. Now that the janitors are mopping the blood up off the canvas, we should be reminded of that scene when Rocky opened up a cut on Ivan Drago’s head. You see? He’s not a machine, he’s a man!

Until now you could make excuses for Romney if you wished. Aside from the Super PAC blitz against Newt at the end, Mitt never really competed in Iowa at anywhere near the level the rest of the contenders did and he still managed what can only be called a tie. He blew the doors off in New Hampshire. And if he had strolled out of Florida with a 4-0 record, let’s face the facts… everyone but Ron Paul would have quit. But Mitt chose to actively campaign and spend big in South Carolina. He always tried to manage expectations downward, but it was obvious he thought he could continue to build momentum going into Florida. He failed. He’s been cut. He’s not a machine.

That’s not to say that Mitt is washed up. Not by a long shot. He’s still got a ton of money and a national campaign infrastructure built for a marathon, not a sprint. But he can only take so many of these losses before the money starts drying up.

4. Newt Gingrich far less unstable than nitroglycerin

The common theme among many – particularly Santorum supporters – is that all they really need to do is wait for a while and Newt will blow himself up and go away. I mean, he always does, right? Well, Newt’s combustible tendencies may be real, but they haven’t managed a feat of self-immolation yet. Every time he says or does something which veteran observers think will be a fatal shot to his own foot, he somehow manages to turn it into a positive and gets standing ovations from the base. (Quite frequently literal standing ovations.)

Is it just possible that what the “experts” think of as fatal errors sometimes turn out to be exactly what conservative voters have been waiting for? South Carolina would seem to add weight to that argument. This isn’t to say that Newt might not yet trip over his own tongue and fall flat, but it certainly hasn’t happened yet. And the upcoming audiences in Florida already seem to be taking approving notice.

5. Rick Santorum prefers turtle soup to rabbit Fricassee

Rick Santorum isn’t going anywhere. Despite a third place finish, he’s on his way to the Sunshine State. Newt is still speaking very kindly of Rick in public, knowing that he needs Santorum’s supporters if he does manage to turn it into a two person race with Romney, but he’s got to be annoyed.

For his part, Santorum is correct to note that he has now won exactly as many primary contests as Mitt and Newt. And as per number 4 above, he has no reason to leave. Newt may have all the momentum at the moment, but if he does trip and fall, number 2 above should tell us that there is an excellent chance that Newt’s backers will actually stampede to Rick, rather than “falling in line” behind Romney. If he can just put in another strong pair of performances at the Florida debates, he will remain well positioned to lurk in the background and wait for his opportunity.

6. Ron Paul’s car only travels in one gear

This isn’t something we really “learned” in South Carolina, since it’s not really a new story. But Ron Paul has the money, the time and the patience to hang in there until the convention. He openly stated after the polls closed that he is “hunting for delegates” and will focus on the caucus states. What he intends to do with those delegates is anybody’s guess, but you can be sure he will stick around until the bartender signals last call. Last night, Michael Steele said he thought that the Palmetto State results made it “a 50-50 chance that we’re heading for an open convention” this year. Is Ron Paul playing a bigger game than any of us suspect at this point?

7. The conventional wisdom is, yet again, neither

I have lost track of the number of times since last summer that one expert or another told me how “obvious” it was that things were going to be one way or another this election. And on the heels of every major development, the “obvious” outcome seems to change. Sure… it’s possible that it ends just like many of us thought in the fall. Mitt might still lock up Florida and go on to swamp everyone else with money, endorsements and ground game organization, sweeping to his inevitable nomination. In fact, I’d personally still put the odds in favor of that happening. But it won’t be quick, it won’t be clean, and it won’t be pretty. And it might not happen at all.

Goes to show what we know, eh?


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8. The Chuck Norris endorsement changed the course of history.

SparkPlug on January 22, 2012 at 1:45 PM

9. There is always time for another drinking game…!

:)

Seven Percent Solution on January 22, 2012 at 2:58 PM

What WASN’T funny is how the Empire struck back as in Lisa Murkowski running a write-in campaign with the full support of Mitch McConnel or how the entire Delaware Republican infrastructure abandoned Christine O’Donnel after she toasted the Empire’s favorite, Mike Castle.

JonPrichard on January 22, 2012 at 2:17 PM

Good point, Jon. This election is no joke. We’re in for a real fight–and it’s far from being simply a fight against the Democrats.

Burke on January 22, 2012 at 2:58 PM

South Carolina The Republican Party Leadership made a laughingstock of the Republican Party.

Swerve22 on January 22, 2012 at 1:41 PM

FIFY

Snorkdoodle Whizbang on January 22, 2012 at 2:59 PM

Anyone who considers Gingrich “anti-establishment” is living in the distant past. He was an outsider voice as a back-bencher, and did a great job of it, was instrumental in organizing the Contract with America (what won the House was the banking scandal that involved over 100 Democrats, though). Then he became the Establishment.

He thwarted conservative initiative on numerous occasions, and after the Contract agenda had been brought to an early vote, became erratic and difficult to work with. Listening to him grab the credit for the things he was there for the ride upon is hilarious.

Then, conservatives kicked him out. The Establishment guys were willing to forgive him after he managed a plea deal on the ethics charges, Livingston, Hastert, etc.

So what did your “anti-establishment” Newt do? NOT go home to Georgia – he bought a house in Northern Virginia and joined the revolving door of influence peddling former Congressmen.

The most disliked man in America politics since 1995, bar none, he has screwed conservatives time and time again. Now you are dumb enough to bought off for a few bits of red meat at debates? At least Callista makes him keep a half-million dollar line of credit at Tiffany’s for his inevitable screw-ups, conservatives are behaving like battered wives going back to their abuser.

Stupid, stupid, stupid.

Adjoran on January 22, 2012 at 3:00 PM

9. There is always time for another drinking game…!

:)

Seven Percent Solution on January 22, 2012 at 2:58 PM

I like your way of thinking, but 7% aren’t you the least bit groggy today?

Bmore on January 22, 2012 at 3:01 PM

CNN: Gingrich to give a visionary speech on Space

WHAT?! Replace NASA’s outreach to Muslims and actually go back into outer space? Outrageous!

sentinelrules on January 22, 2012 at 3:01 PM

burrata on January 22, 2012 at 2:49 PM

I’ll be curious about that as well. I’m sure the MSM is working furiously to craft what they think are the ultimate bombshells to lob at all the candidates.

I’ll be watching with fascination. :)

PatriotGal2257 on January 22, 2012 at 3:02 PM

I like your way of thinking, but 7% aren’t you the least bit groggy today?

Bmore on January 22, 2012 at 3:01 PM

Vast amounts of Gatorade on the ‘day after’ works wonders…

/

Seven Percent Solution on January 22, 2012 at 3:07 PM

Would that be Marco Rubio?

lulub on January 22, 2012 at 2:55 PM

Article 2, Section 3, Clause 5 of the U.S. Constitution:

“No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States.”

“Amazing Marco” Rubio is a “native born” citizen, not a “naturally born” citizens. His parents naturalization process was completed AFTER he was born here, hence his parents weren’t citizens at the time of his birth.

Same applies to Jindal in Louisiana.

But, are you saying, after the Obama precedent, “Constitution? We don’t need no stinkin’ Constitution?”

Horace on January 22, 2012 at 3:07 PM

The establishment will not go down without a fight

liberal4life on January 22, 2012 at 2:51 PM

Bmore! Razors! The stubble is getting LONG!

KOOLAID2 on January 22, 2012 at 3:08 PM

Mitt said in an interview with Laura on Friday that the economy is improving (it is not by the way), on a separate interview Mitt said what Barack did with GM and with Solyna is the same thing he when he did. Mitt will not at all point out Barack’s past because it might offend people.

BroncosRock on January 22, 2012 at 2:32 PM

This is so typically Mitt and so utterly disgusting. I swear, with Mitt, we have another Dole-McCain-Ford-Kemp, another Republican politician working so hard to be nice and gentle and balanced that it will be hard for anyone to tell the difference between him and the Democrats.

Burke on January 22, 2012 at 3:09 PM

Bmore

“What’s shakin?”

The large window in my living room. Cold wind from Canada sweeping through here today. But I’m snug and warm and checking the barrel from time to time.

Horace on January 22, 2012 at 3:09 PM

the establishment removed newt and since then all they done is spend
and play reindeer games. newt was yhe strict teacher when the class
wanted the easy sub. have you notice that since newt left no has approached balancing the budget.to the est gop they mitt or bho because the games will continue

rik on January 22, 2012 at 3:16 PM

Adjoran

The hell you say?

But thanks for the post. I was just going to call the local Hindu temple to see what I needed to convert.

After all, it appeared to me that Calvin Coolidge, Robert Taft and Barry Goldwater had all been suddenly reincarnated in “anti-establishment” Newt.

At least now I won’t have to buy all that incense.

Also, have always wondered if Calvin Coolidge had a cat named “Hobbes.”

Horace on January 22, 2012 at 3:19 PM

This is so wrong… Every single one of us “evil establishment” Republicans can’t stand Romney, and we are all dismayed at the lack of strong candidates. But this simple fact is that he is the only one who even has a prayer of taking down Obama, except maybe Ron Paul, and as I say that I realize that Mittens is likely to lose. Newt WILL lose. MIttens is our only chance, as awful and depressing as that is.

REPEAT: THE ESTABLISHMENT DOESN’T LIKE MITT, BUT HE IS THE ONLY GUY IN A SUIT RIGHT NOW!

HTnFBCoachnTX1980 on January 22, 2012 at 2:23 PM

Really? If the establishment really can’t stand Mitt, then why have they been trying to push him as the last best hope and our only chance as the GOP candidate since 2008, no less? All we’ve been hearing, here as in other places in the MSM as well as so-called “conservative” sites such as National Review, the Weekly Standard and the Washington Examiner, is that Romney is the only choice any of us should be bothering ourselves with.

Never mind that his flip-flops are well-known, never mind that he sounds to me as if he’s rehearsed and memorized talking points during all the debates but doesn’t seem to believe any of it — he just says what is expedient to go over well with voters, and never mind that he displays a timidity and cautiousness that to me is very alarming. He’s going to go up against Obama being hesitant? Sure. He’ll be pulverized by an Obama Attack Machine that will chew him up and spit him out before he even realizes what happened.

But you’re right — he’s probably not going to take out Obama. That’s why Gingrich, Santorum and Paul are still in the race.

PatriotGal2257 on January 22, 2012 at 3:20 PM

Horace
That was a heck of a thread last night. It looks like you did get to watch the vid, at the risk of repeating myself, the kid with the banjo is still here. He is the dishwasher at the local cafe. In case there was any confusion about things I said on that thread. Let me clarify one last time. I was trying to play peace maker between you and cozmo, nothing more. I consider you my Allie and tho you need no one to go to bat for you. I did. You are welcomed down here anytime. Well its time to call my dear old Mom, WWII Navy, Pearl Harbor, 92 you’d like the cut of her jib Horace.

Bmore on January 22, 2012 at 3:21 PM

It was interesting to see that George H.W. told Bar to tell Laura to tell George W. to tell Jeb to tell Romney to release his tax returns if he wants help lifting barges and toting bales in Florida.

Elite in Action!

Horace on January 22, 2012 at 3:22 PM

Bmore

As I said, “No problem.”

Great you still have your mother around at 92. My mother died in 2001 at age 86. “Maudline Cornelia” How’s THAT for Southern names?

Horace on January 22, 2012 at 3:29 PM

South Carolina made a laughingstock of the Republican Party.

Swerve22 on January 22, 2012 at 1:41 PM

Classic, this encapsulates several Romney backers here, when people disagree with your candidate dismiss them and insult them.

Yep, that is the way to influence people. Romney supporters are
Romney’s Achilles heal.

Skwor on January 22, 2012 at 3:33 PM

Mitt lost again?!? bwahahahahaha

cptacek on January 22, 2012 at 3:46 PM

We learned SC like corrupt big government progressives.

steve123 on January 22, 2012 at 3:47 PM

Skwor on January 22, 2012 at 3:33 PM

I was thinking the same thing basically.. The sour grapes are epic in scale, as if they are more interested in burning bridges than beating Obama in the fall. The similarity to Paul voters is striking too.

If you don’t buy their entire argument, you’re a moron…

The only “stupid” being dispensened is the kind where people are so emotionally paired up with a certain candidate, they’ll threaten to stay home and hold their breath till they turn blue…

yeah… that’ll work.

Nobody thinks Newt is perfect, but between the two, if the Ohio primary were today, I’d vote for Newt, not to endorse his flaws, but because I have to pick between two human beings, warts and all, and make the decision as to who will come closest to my set of governing principles…

It’s not a high school popularity game..

and enough folks are hurting now, Obama can’t try that again either…

Stop making it personal, nobody is voting as they are just to screw another voter for his choice.

mark81150 on January 22, 2012 at 3:47 PM

Call my opinion “inconceivable” but I still hold that Newt IS more volatile than nytro…and, though he talks anti-establishment, and he does TALK a really good game, it’s actions I’m after and I’ve seen Newt in action. He’s the most Washington insider of all. If he’s electable, even worse, ‘cuz I don’t want him to be prez. As a Economic Conservative Independent, I’ll say it here and now, I will not vote for Newt. I want Romney. I’d take Santorum, Perry, Cain, many other Republicans, maybe-maybe not Paul, but I absolutely, positively will never, ever cast my vote for the Newtster. I remember him in the House, and I don’t want him in power again. Been there done that. His ego is too darn big and he’s way too much of a blowin’ in the wind, do as I say, not as I do kind of guy. Sure, he won the house once upon a time…before losing it again…along with his ethics investigation. I honestly don’t know what I’d do in a Newt vrs Barak contest, but it wouldn’t include a check-mark besides either of their names. Conservative Republicans may be just about ready to take beach the ship for all conservatives right beside that ocean liner that went down off the coast in Italy. Batten down the hatches. Newt really, really shouldn’t be the Republican guy…unless conserv Repubs are set on 4 more years of Obama.

limmo on January 22, 2012 at 3:48 PM

Seriously Republicans, trust Marriane. Newt proved to be an unreliable guy to have in her house. It won’t be in better to have him in our White House!

limmo on January 22, 2012 at 3:55 PM

Wouldn’t it be great to have a Newt with no baggage. A conservative with a great record, no ties to lobbyists, not a liberal like mitt. Someone that worked for the people that governed under a Reagan type of worldview. Still pis@ that candidate choose not to run. She would be on her way to the nomination at this point.

unseen on January 22, 2012 at 1:51 PM

Would that be Marco Rubio?

lulub on January 22, 2012 at 2:55 PM

Rubio is a she?

cptacek on January 22, 2012 at 3:58 PM

Would that be Marco Rubio?

lulub on January 22, 2012 at 2:55 PM

Article 2, Section 3, Clause 5 of the U.S. Constitution:

“No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States.”

“Amazing Marco” Rubio is a “native born” citizen, not a “naturally born” citizens. His parents naturalization process was completed AFTER he was born here, hence his parents weren’t citizens at the time of his birth.

Same applies to Jindal in Louisiana.

But, are you saying, after the Obama precedent, “Constitution? We don’t need no stinkin’ Constitution?”

Horace on January 22, 2012 at 3:07 PM

Prediction: Those that don’t know the difference between naturally born and native born will call you a birther…

cptacek on January 22, 2012 at 3:59 PM

Yea, Senator Christine O’Donnell has been a huge success… Oh wait…

HTnFBCoachnTX1980 on January 22, 2012 at 2:15 PM

I thought Palin didn’t weigh into the O’Donnell race until after she won the primary? As in, she was backing the Republican candidate in the general. Perhaps I misremembered, though.

cptacek on January 22, 2012 at 4:00 PM

Horace
My wife’s Mother’s name is Martha Cornelia, funny. Glad we are square on everything. Man that thread sucked!

Bmore on January 22, 2012 at 4:00 PM

After the results of the South Carolina primary, NewtCantWin.com has endorsed Newt Gingrich. Read all about it here.

netster007x on January 22, 2012 at 4:03 PM

3) Apparently, the reason elitist, intellectual, and establishment conservatives look down on extreme conservatives is, shockingly enough, the extremists are actually uneducated and dumb. The right wing screams that we need them and look down on them, but just watch what would happen if all the “educated elitist” conservatives stopped defending the crazies. We would be a socialist state in two election cycles.

Way to go South Carolina… Best decision y’all made since you started the Civil War…

HTnFBCoachnTX1980 on January 22, 2012 at 2:08 PM

My, my, they are so cute when they are both irredeemably patronizing and willfully idiotic, aren’t they? Half-educated pseudo-elites have nothing on the lowliest backwoods hick for block-headed stupidity.

Why don’t you join David Brooks and genuflect before Obama’s trousers-crease?

ebrown2 on January 22, 2012 at 4:11 PM

After the results of the South Carolina primary, NewtCantWin.com has endorsed Newt Gingrich. Read all about it here.

netster007x on January 22, 2012 at 4:03 PM

Ziegler’s doing his “right-wing Olby” schtick again, I see. It explains why he’s been fired from so many jobs.

ebrown2 on January 22, 2012 at 4:13 PM

Jazz
You ever gonna correct #3?

Bmore on January 22, 2012 at 4:15 PM

Nice blog post Jazz Shaw..:)

Dire Straits on January 22, 2012 at 4:17 PM

Jazz
You ever gonna correct #3?

Bmore on January 22, 2012 at 4:15 PM

Don’t tell me you’re a Patriots fan.

Bmore on January 22, 2012 at 4:17 PM

Don’t tell me you’re a Patriots fan.

Bmore on January 22, 2012 at 4:17 PM
LoLz..Jazz is a Jets fan..:)

Dire Straits on January 22, 2012 at 4:20 PM

Dire Straits on January 22, 2012 at 4:20 PM

Ahh, How you doing Dire? : )

Bmore on January 22, 2012 at 4:21 PM

All we learned is that Newt can hit a hanging curve ball out of the park. That’s basically what got him rolling Thursday night and the SC voters loved it. They were looking for a reason to go anywhere but to Romney’s corner and that exchange did it.

Of course, it could have been calculated by the left. Newt’s response was pretty much predictable. The wide open, “Do you want to respond” was perfect and he hammered it.

EconomicNeocon on January 22, 2012 at 4:24 PM

Romney’s supporters and their nasty snark are some of Mitt’s biggest negatives. I would almost vote against him to pee them off.

SurferDoc on January 22, 2012 at 4:27 PM

Barack Obama?

Mitt Romney?

Mr. Joe on January 22, 2012 at 4:30 PM

Bmore on January 22, 2012 at 4:21 PM

Doing well..:)

PS..Jazz could have found a more up to date picture??!!?..:)

Dire Straits on January 22, 2012 at 4:34 PM

We learned the “The Stupid Party” no longer applies to the repugnicans. The should be called the Stupid Dinosaur party. GOP, the new Whigs.

borntoraisehogs on January 22, 2012 at 4:36 PM

I haven’t read all the comments, but speaking as a SC voter, in the last debate, Newt was clear, well spoken and on point. Paul rambled. Santorum didn’t convince anyone of anything. And the biggie…. Romney sounded like a stuttering Obama speaking without his telepromptor. When you grasp at straws for why you haven’t released your tax forms (“Uh….. uh….. uh….I’ll release them after I file them.” What BS! What about your 2010 return????????) then point the finger to the other candidates in the classic “Look Over There!” maneuver,you get your ass booed in SC!

Storybec on January 22, 2012 at 4:39 PM

….. And you lose the people’s votes!

Storybec on January 22, 2012 at 4:40 PM

Under #2: the word is “inconceivable”, not “inevitable”

pfw51 on January 22, 2012 at 4:42 PM

There are the AnybodybutRomneyers. I’m a NoteverNewter. He’s not another Regan. He’s another Nixon. I saw ‘em both, and I saw King Newt in the House, and I betcha.

Maybe we really do need a third party-economically conservative to the max but not zealously social-conservative true believers, so determined to never compromise that the far left always wins. New might win Conserv Repubs but he won’t win the Conserv Independents.

A vote for Newt is a vote for Obama. My prediction. Say it loud and proud…”Four more years!”

limmo on January 22, 2012 at 4:44 PM

Dire Straits on January 22, 2012 at 4:34 PM

Wouldn’t hurt if Jazz would correct the error in #3 either. But I digress, I am still warn out from the return thread, last night was it? 7% is all geared up with a new drinking game. Arrrgh. Pass the aspirin, please.

Bmore on January 22, 2012 at 4:46 PM

Bmore on January 22, 2012 at 4:46 PM

Ihear you..It was a very interesting thread for sure..:)

Dire Straits on January 22, 2012 at 4:49 PM

A Newt vrs Obama contest will be a race to see who can get 49%. Most Independents won’t vote for another four years of Obama, but many won’t want Newt either. Some will hold their noses; many may not. Repeat after me. FOUR more years!

limmo on January 22, 2012 at 4:59 PM

I don’t much care what polls are saying. If you don’t think the Democrats are scared as hell of Newt and want to face Mitt so bad they can taste it, just go spend 15 minutes over at Democratic Underground.

sybilll on January 22, 2012 at 5:14 PM

That flat truth about demos is this… about 30+% Repub, close to 40ish% Dems. Independents will tell the tale. Next to last election, they went GOP. Last election, they hoped and changed. They’ve had enough of that. But, they aren’t going to want Newt either. Repubs, as an Independent Conservative, I implore you, do something right and that won’t be Newt. If you insist upon NoRomney, go Santorum. Draft Christie. Draft Anyone. Newt will newtralize any hope of change in 2012.

limmo on January 22, 2012 at 5:22 PM

And if Newt somehow CAN win, I’m convinced he shouldn’t. He’s not a good guy when it comes to presidential material. He’s a great conservative, a great spokesperson for the cause, but he’ll take that cause down as its presidential candidate, before or after an election. Happened before. It will happen again.

limmo on January 22, 2012 at 5:26 PM

The dialog word in The Princess Bride? Not creepy to know, rather inevitable to know, if you’d parented one or more daughters in the 80s and had your VCR in the family room. My daughter can still recall huge swaths of the movie’s dialog, it’s like a flashback to the family room.

ugottabekiddingme on January 22, 2012 at 5:43 PM

Let me try to define Establishment from a normal persons perspective. I think Establishment for most people is based in being of the National Washington DC crowd whether its being supported by such people or currently working in that area.

Mitt Romney is a Washington DC Establishment guy because a majority of his support is coming from those people telling us all it is Inevitable because he is the most Electable.

Newt Gingrich is not currently a Washington DC Establishment guy because a majority of the current people from Washington DC are against him as the primary nominee despite his years of being a Washington DC Establishment guy which is a weird Paradox.

Ron Paul should properly be considered a Washington DC Establishment guy for his 24 years as a Congressmen but this gets ignored due to his constantly voting No on Legislation that he fills with Earmarks and his rants about War Mongers and following the Constitution.

Rick Sanctorum is a Republican Establishment guy for his 2 terms in congress and 2 terms as Senator and staying involved in the process after losing his Senate Campaign in 06.

Rick Perry is not a Washington DC Establishment guy even though he could be called part of The Texas state Establishment.

Herman Cain was the only Candidate who could properly claim the mantle of Non Establishment.

alloyiv on January 22, 2012 at 5:50 PM

Former House Speaker Gingrich (R-Ga.) constantly invokes Reagan on the campaign trail, but he has none of the charm or winsome personality that allowed Reagan to be the master of all factions.

None is too strong. But certainly not enough, yet.

AshleyTKing on January 22, 2012 at 5:51 PM

I will never vote for Oromney. I voted for Gingrich in the SC primary. Oromney is Obama. I am tired of RINOS. Time to stick a fork in ‘em. I have held my nose and voted for the R for the last time. 45 years and I can still smell the stench every time I have voted. No more. Never again!

they lie on January 22, 2012 at 5:54 PM

Trust me…or not, but I’ve see Regan and Newt. Newt is no Regan. Unfortunately.

limmo on January 22, 2012 at 5:55 PM

Romney has run business. He has a shot a running the country. Newt, like Obama, will run the country into the ground.

limmo on January 22, 2012 at 5:57 PM

In some ways this is the ultimate challenge of the Republican establishment.

By the way the Republican Party normally does things, it is clearly Romney’s turn. He finished second last time, and come on, he looks presidential!

The problem is his record is *unacceptable* to any conservative.

So we get a conflict between conservatives and establishment types. Who does the party belong to?

And for those on the fence, if Romney (or Paul) are the nominee I, and many other conservatives, will not vote for him.

Oh, and I’m not thrilled with Newt, but he has actually advanced conservative ideas while in office. So if he is the choice I certainly will vote for him, but he is clearly a compromise candidate – something that is not being noted strongly enough I think.

Like Romney, Newt is closely tied to the establishment, and he’s committed a number of leftwing heresies as well. But unlike Romney, there is at least a chance he would advance conservative ideas in office. And interestingly, by taking up the “anti-establishment” banner he might be forced to strongly advance conservative ideas if elected…

18-1 on January 22, 2012 at 5:59 PM

Four more years of Obama is on it’s way…God save the King.

limmo on January 22, 2012 at 6:06 PM

Horace
My wife’s Mother’s name is Martha Cornelia, funny. Glad we are square on everything. Man that thread sucked!

Bmore on January 22, 2012 at 4:00 PM

My Grandmother’s name was Cornelia May. We called her Grandma Nelia.

Dr Evil on January 22, 2012 at 6:09 PM

God save the King.

limmo on January 22, 2012 at 6:06 PM

Elvis has been dead for a long time now ;-)

burrata on January 22, 2012 at 6:34 PM

If the people who say they won’t vote for Newt ever, and the people who say they won’t vote for Romney ever, all agree to vote for the Republican in the general – no matter who it is – we can beat Obama. Just saying.

YehuditTX on January 22, 2012 at 7:20 PM

He’s not another Regan.

limmo on January 22, 2012 at 4:44 PM

Trust me…or not, but I’ve see Regan and Newt. Newt is no Regan. Unfortunately.

limmo on January 22, 2012 at 5:55 PM

Hey, Donald Regan was a great Chief of Staff, and Sec. of the Treas.

What did you have against him? /s

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on January 22, 2012 at 8:12 PM

In exit polls, 2/3 of primary voters said that not only did they watch the debates, but they affected their decision as to who they selected.

Criminy, Jazz. Have you never heard of a thing called an “antecedent”? Primary voters affected whom the primary voters selected? (And, yes, you got ‘who’ vs ‘whom’ wrong, too.)

I promised not to be a grammar brown-shirt on commenters, but you’re being paid to do this, Jazz.

GWB on January 22, 2012 at 8:20 PM

Elvis dead?!! No freaking way.

limmo on January 22, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Jazz,

I think Dire Straits pointed this out, but yes, you do need to find another picture. Governor David Beasley is like 4 governors ago. And he wasn’t all that popular when he was in office.

Cannon Fodder on January 22, 2012 at 8:34 PM

Does anyone really believe that if the republicans get control of the house and senate that a republican president is going to veto legislation on spending cuts or the repeal of obamacare or effective border control? If so which and why?

dunce on January 22, 2012 at 9:07 PM

Seven things we learned in South Carolina

1) Allegations of philandering – bad, actual philandering – good
2) Instate tuition for illegals – bad, amnesty for illegals – good
3) Earnings at Bain Capital – bad, earnings at Freddie Mac – good
4) Flip flops made by Gingrich are more comfortable than flip flops made by Romney
5) To fight the establishment, send the establishment
6) Debating skills are more important than job skills
7) If Palin says to vote for a particular candidate, nothing else matters.

rukiddingme on January 22, 2012 at 10:07 PM

Amazing Marco” Rubio is a “native born” citizen, not a “naturally born” citizens. His parents naturalization process was completed AFTER he was born here, hence his parents weren’t citizens at the time of his birth.

Same applies to Jindal in Louisiana.

But, are you saying, after the Obama precedent, “Constitution? We don’t need no stinkin’ Constitution?”

Horace on January 22, 2012 at 3:07 PM

That must be liberating to shed the chains of law and fact and assert with smug certitude that which is so plainly wrong. You must be a Newtbag.

borntoraisehogs on January 22, 2012 at 10:46 PM

8. The Media shouldn’t try to push a candidate on SC.

9. The Washignton DC elite shouldn’t try to push a candidate on SC.

10. Attack dog attitude is needed to go after the president.

Missed a few….

mr_west on January 22, 2012 at 11:06 PM

limmo on January 22, 2012 at 8:28 PM

I’m sorry if this offends you, but…10 posts within 5 hours, and you still haven’t said anything intelligent?

How about positive? Could you say anything positive about any of our candidates within a 10-post spread?

I live on the SC border, and all my voting friends in SC have said the same things:
1) They could stand with Santorum, but he had no real opportunity in this particular fight;
2) They love the fire and combativeness that Newt brings to any discussion, because they’re tired of being told what to think by the Obama administration and the MSM, and Newt is the only candidate who won’t let his opponents define all the discussions; and
3)they fully understand their role in giving the other 47 states an opportunity to play out this contest.

SC played defensive stopper for the Conservatives; now we’ll see just how inevitable the Romney machine is.

And BTW, no matter how hypocritical any of us look at the eventual (R) nominee, even my dead rabbit would be better for America in 2012 than 4 more years of Obama’s plunderers.

rwenger43 on January 23, 2012 at 12:23 AM

I think what a lot of people learned from the 2008 election is what’s driving the 2012 nomination campaign. The establishment candidate will not be tolerated. I think most voters still have a nasty taste in their mouth from having to settle for McCain and their bound and determined not to let it happen again.

Norky on January 22, 2012 at 2:42 PM

If you remember back to 2008, McCain was dead in the water and way down in the polls because of his immigration position. He was effectively, out of it but then NH vaulted him back into the limelight after all of the moderates and dems voted him there, and the GOP establishment started loving him again not because he could win but only because he was next in the line of succession and therefore “deserved” it.

This election is no different. Mittens is the “next” in line so the establishment is behind him. Paul finally learned that being a libertarian candidate is not going to get you any attention, so better to be a republican. Now his foreign policy slip is showing and he isn’t looking all that great anymore. Newt is a great debater and a big picture thinker but, he is quite the big government republican and he has baggage with wives, freddie and fannie, and sitting on the couch with Nancy-poo making green. Santorum looks good but he can’t get anyone to listen to him and he has made some bad decisions in the past. There isn’t that one great candidate. But, overall I think that more than anything, people want to make their own decision, they don’t want the gop party hacks telling them who they are voting for.

I’m a Virginian, I don’t have a choice. For me it’s Mittens or Paul. Either the state GOP party didn’t let on to anyone other than Mitt and Paul that you needed a petition of at least 10K voters to get on the ballot, or the candidate’s political machines weren’t savvy enough to plan ahead to find out the ballot requirements for each state’s primary. I just want a choice to vote my conscience in a primary. Then in the general election I’ll hold my nose and pull the lever for Mitt if I have to.

Sweaty Deacon on January 23, 2012 at 12:45 AM

8. Palin’s opinion matters.

ChuckTX on January 23, 2012 at 8:07 AM

Well, born and raised in SC… It seems to me and from talking to people a lot of SC’linians were doing a protest vote. That is, voting for Newt because of the way the media dug up an Ex-wife.

GunnyRet03 on January 23, 2012 at 8:26 AM

I’m reminded of a scene from the cult classic film, Princess Bride. “Inevitable. You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.”

Ed, the word is Inconceivable! (And yes, it must always be said or written with the exclamation mark)

Freelancer on January 23, 2012 at 11:49 AM

At this point the nominee is almost irrelevant to me. I’m just thrilled to see the “conventional wisdom” turned on its keester.

creeper on January 24, 2012 at 11:47 AM

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