Open thread: South Carolina; Update: Gingrich wins; Update: Full exit poll data added; Update: Romney video added; Update: Gingrich video added; Update: Jeb Bush staying neutral

posted at 6:00 pm on January 21, 2012 by Allahpundit

Polls close at 7 p.m. ET. If PPP and ARG are right, the race should be called at around 7:01. But maybe they’re not right: More than 22,000 absentee ballots were cast, many of them before Newt’s last-minute surge, so Romney might be stronger than he seems. On the other hand, reporters are chattering about Democrats in South Carolina voting for Newt in order to prolong the Romney/Gingrich war. Read pollster Mark Blumenthal on why trying to predict a race with lots of eleventh-hour developments is a fool’s errand.

Here’s Google’s page for South Carolina election returns. Assuming Newt wins, the margin obviously matters in shaping the pre-Florida spin. If it’s narrow, Romney will claim that Gingrich won only because SC is in his backyard. If it’s wide, you’ll hear the phrase “aura of inevitability shattered” roughly eight thousand times over the next few days. See Ed’s post this morning on why Romney probably isn’t worried, even if he ends up swamped tonight. He’s piling up absentee ballots in Florida, where he currently holds a huge lead, and rumors continue to fly about him rolling out Jeb Bush for the big endorsement at an opportune moment. And then there’s this:

After Florida, Gingrich’s outlook becomes even more bleak. The February calendar presents Romney with the opportunity to do to Gingrich what Barack Obama did to Hillary Clinton in 2008. Caucuses in Nevada, Colorado, and Minnesota will benefit a more organized campaign, giving Romney and Rep. Ron Paul a boost over Gingrich. The two primaries that month, in Arizona and Michigan, will take place on Romney-friendly turf; Arizona has a sizable Mormon electorate, while Michigan is Romney’s home state. By the end of February, Romney is likely to have the majority of the 274 delegates awarded to that point. Paul’s focus on caucus states means Gingrich may not even be in second place by the end of the month.

Then comes Super Tuesday, when 10 states will allocate a total of 407 delegates. With few debates left on the horizon, Gingrich won’t have the time, the exposure, or the money to build the type of national campaign Romney has already started to build (Gingrich isn’t even eligible for the 46 delegates from Virginia; his campaign didn’t submit enough valid signatures to make the ballot there).

In short, South Carolina presents Gingrich’s last real chance to be on equal footing with Romney before the race goes national. Barring a sustained surge in campaign contributions for Gingrich and a real stumble by Romney’s campaign, the reality is that the race for the Republican nod is as clear today as it was before Gingrich’s revitalization: There will be no extended fight for delegates a la Obama-Clinton, there will be no brokered convention, and Romney will be the Republican nominee. The deck is stacked too much in Romney’s favor to give Gingrich’s campaign anything more than a temporary reprieve.

Once Gingrich is formally crowned Not Romney tonight and becomes the last real obstacle to Mitt’s nomination, he shouldn’t have any trouble raising money for months to come. One of his advisors told Stephen Hayes, in fact, that Newt will be in it until the convention. I wouldn’t rule out a “real stumble” from Romney on the trail either. As effective as Gingrich has been this week, Romney has been terrible, hemming and hawing about his tax returns to feed the suspicion that he has something to hide and letting his campaign stupidly float the idea that he might back out of one of the Florida debates, which plays right into Newt’s message that he isn’t tough enough to handle Obama. He won’t implode in a flash the way Perry did with his answer on in-state tuition for illegals, but if he continues to look weak and untrustworthy he could bleed enough support to keep Gingrich going.

Here’s your thread to follow results; lots of updates to come, including a link to the exit polls as soon as they’re available. Ed will be on Hugh Hewitt’s show sometime between 7 and 9 p.m. ET to talk about the results, so be sure to tune into that too.

Update: The hard feelings begin before the vote ends:

Not to be outdone, Romney’s campaign later put out a statement celebrating the “15th anniversary” of the House decision to reprimand Gingrich for ethics violations, during his days as speaker. The Romney campaign plans to deliver an anniversary cake to Gingrich’s South Carolina headquarters to mark the occasion on Saturday.

Update: Behold, my friends, as Team Romney prepares the ultimate “You know who this benefits?” spin:

“I think we’re going to lose tonight, we could lose big,” the aide said, speaking on condition of anonymity. “But I think it’s been a terrible week for Gingrich and a great week for us.”

From the former Speaker’s demonization of Romney’s business record, to his decision to indignantly deflect criticism from his ex-wife, the aide said Gingrich has ensured that he won’t win the Republican nomination…

Of course, a loss is still a loss, and up until very recently, Romney and his surrogates had been predicting a first-place finish in the Palmetto State. Asked whether Romney’s collapse in the polls is forcing Romney’s campaign to consult its own mortality, the aide laughed.

“Oh God, no,” he said. “I mean, to face Newt Gingrich?”

Update: Here comes the exit poll data. You know who this doesn’t benefit?

Sixty-four percent said the debates were an important factor for them; just 34 percent said they were not. Gingrich won standing ovations in both debates while Romney often struggled – and at one point received a smattering of boos for equivocating over how many years of his tax returns he would release.

Gingrich, who polls suggest overtook Romney in the final days before today’s primary, is hoping for a victory that would keep Romney from locking up the nomination before the end of the month. A majority of voters – 53 percent – said they made up their mind about who to back within the last few days.

Forty-five percent say electability is most important. We’ll see how that breaks between Gingrich and Romney.

Update: Looks like it’ll be a short night: “Romney aides tell Fox News they expect a second place finish based on exit polls.”

Update: Nate Silver sends a chill through Team Romney by wondering whether he’s still ahead … in Florida:

Essentially all of the polling data used for the forecast, however, predates the Monday night debate in Myrtle Beach, since which time there has been a dramatic reversal of fortunes in the Republican race. Mr. Romney has lost 15 points from his lead nationwide, according to the Gallup national tracking poll. There has been an even larger swing – a net of about 21 points between Mr. Romney and Mr. Gingrich – in South Carolina.

If the Florida polls have swung as much as the national polls during the past several days, Mr. Romney would have only about a 5-point lead there now. And if the Florida polls have swung as much as the South Carolina ones have during the last week, Mr. Gingrich and Mr. Romney would now be essentially tied there.

The wider the margin tonight, the more buzz Newt will have and, presumably, the more momentum heading into Florida. (There’s another debate on Monday too, don’t forget.) Speaking of which, here’s the answer to the electability question I posed above about the exit poll data: Of the 45 percent who said beating Obama was most important, 49 percent said Gingrich was best positioned to do it compared to just 41 percent who said Romney. In South Carolina, Newt’s the electable candidate.

Update: A picture is worth a thousand words.

Update: All the nets are calling it for Gingrich promptly at 7 p.m. Stand by for exit poll data so that we’ll have some sense of the margin.

Update: Here’s the exit poll data. Newt wins, 38/29.

Update: The most amazing thing about the exit poll is how many different demographics Newt won. Romney led by double digits less than a week ago but couldn’t hold onto his advantage in virtually any group. Newt won men, women (sorry, Marianne), independents, marrieds, singles, veterans, non-veterans, and all income groups. He won on electability and on the economy and on the deficit. He won among voters who decided today and within the last few days, and tied Romney among those who decided earlier this month. (A rare win for Romney came among those who decided before that.) He even won among those who approve of Nikki Haley’s job performance as governor, notwithstanding her endorsement of Mitt.

As for Bain, here was the response when voters were asked their view of Romney’s background of investing in and restructuring companies:

Most think positively of Romney’s career, but Mitt beats Newt within that group fairly narrowly. Among the minority who view Romney’s career negatively, Gingrich crushes Romney. Could be that the Bain attacks didn’t matter much to most voters, but to the voters who cared, they mattered a lot.

Even though Newt topped Mitt on nearly all the issues, I think this’ll be the media spin tomorrow: “Romney lost on the basis of two debates. Welcome to U.S. of American Idol”.

Update: For what it’s worth, here’s the Democratic reaction tonight via our old friend KP: “Getting ecstatic emails from my Dem operative friends re Newt.”

Update: A mind-boggling exit poll data point from John Dickerson. I guess that ABC interview with Newt’s ex didn’t work: “Gingrich got the same share of the evangelical vote in SC as Mike Huckabee in 2008. One of them is an ordained minister.”

Update: Two more tidbits from the exit poll. In case there was any doubt, yes, Gingrich killed Romney at the debates:

As for this, make of it what you will:

Update: One more and then I’ll stop. This doesn’t prove that the Bain attacks worked, but I’m not sure that’s a comfort to Mitt. If voters are starting to feel alienated by Romney’s wealth, whether because they think he doesn’t understand their problems or for other reasons, then Gingrich could become the “blue-collar candidate” by default and suddenly Mitt has a big problem:

Update: Team Mitt would have preferred to roll out the Jeb Bush endorsement closer to the Florida vote, but I guess they’re panicky about a “sinking Romney ship” narrative tomorrow. Three sources are telling CNN tonight that Jeb will in fact endorse Mitt sometime soon. Will that be enough, though, if Santorum drops out? Says PPP, “Florida Santorum voters prefer Newt over Mitt 58-32…his decision whether to stay in or not will have major implications”.

Update: Chris Cillizza of WaPo tweets that “Close Jeb Bush ally tells me that no Romney endorsement is in the works.” Jeb’s camp being coy, or is he getting cold feet about throwing in with Romney after tonight’s drubbing?

Update: Santorum’s speaking as I write this and Ed notes on Twitter that he’s using the past tense a lot. Him dropping out would be Romney’s worst nightmare, needless to say.

Update: Wouldn’t you know it, Nikki Haley couldn’t make it over to the Romney rally tonight. Sad.

Update: Here’s Mitt’s concession speech. The money line: “Our party cannot be led to victory by someone who also has never run a business, and never run a state… We cannot defeat [Obama] with a candidate who has joined in that very assault on free enterprise.”

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Update: At long last, more than three hours after the race was called for him, here’s Newt. Quote: “I articulate the deepest-felt values of the American people.”

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Update: Oh my. Did Jeb just head for the lifeboats on the S.S. Romney?

Jeb Bush, the popular former Florida governor, said he will “stay neutral” in the Republican presidential primary while warning his party’s candidates to leave the “circular firing squad” of their primary debates behind and start appealing to a broader audience of voters.

Bush’s remarks, in an exclusive interview today, come as the contest advances to Florida, where the Jan. 31 primary will take the race into its biggest and most diverse arena yet. The winner will be awarded all of the state’s 57 delegates…

The younger Bush described both Romney and Gingrich as “credible” candidates in a November contest with President Barack Obama. “I intend to help whoever wins the nomination,” the former governor said…

He also says Romney should disclose his income tax records during the Florida contest, calling Romney’s riches “a wonderful success story.”

Bush is going to spin this as having been his position all along but the rumors that he’d endorse Mitt have been circulating for weeks. (His dad endorsed Romney a few weeks ago, remember.) The fact that he’s declaring neutrality on the same night that Gingrich swamped Romney in South Carolina is a terrible signal for Mitt.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 29 30 31 32

ddrintn on January 22, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Only 28 house members voted against charging Newt with ethica violations. So yeah it was totally a laughable partisan witch hunt.

libfreeordie on January 22, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Now I am wondering if it was such a good strategy for Mitt to have the IA, NH, SC, and FL primaries moved so early? Especially if Newt does well in Florida.

txmomof6 on January 22, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Plus the neverending stories of how Mitt’s nomination was a done deal probably kept them from coming out against Newt who, until the last 2 debates, was doing nothing but attacking capitalism and doing Obama’s campaign work for him.

Priscilla on January 22, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Wrong. I don’t like Gingrich much more than I do Romney, but ever since the debates started Gingrich was the one who was attacking Obama and not the other candidates. Once Gingrich took the lead over Romney as the NotRomney of the moment, Team Mitt had to go into sewer rat attack mode. Then Gingrich responded in kind.

ddrintn on January 22, 2012 at 9:34 AM

One of these mornings the anti-Mitts are going to wake up and ask themselves “Oh my God what have we done?”.

CW on January 22, 2012 at 9:18 AM

And thank their luck stars.

chewmeister on January 22, 2012 at 9:35 AM

All the polls show MItt beating or tied with Obama. So how is Mitt unelectable, as many on here claim?

Jack_Burton on January 22, 2012 at 3:04 AM

Polls aren’t going to save Mitt from his past and current indifference towards the base. There’s a very pissed off sleeping giant out in America who’s beginning to wake up and show a little muscle (thank you, Sarah, for the nudge you gave). Urban elites were surprised in 2010 after returns came in, and they’re going to be surprised in 2012, too.

Burke on January 22, 2012 at 9:36 AM

“The voters in South Carolina basically said to us that what they mean by electability is the ability to take on Barack Obama in a debate. There is no doubt this past week who was the strongest debater. You saw this when Gingrich took on a question from my colleague Juan. And mostly on the issue, not directly Juan, hit the thing out of the park, got a standing ovation and then similarly on Thursday night in the other debate you saw him take on a question from John King about something his wife had said and got a standing ovation,” Brit Hume said.

Hume says Romney’s loss in South Carolina will cost him support.
================================================================

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/01/21/brit_hume_electability_means_who_is_able_to_take_on_obama_in_a_debate.html

canopfor on January 22, 2012 at 7:57 AM

Newt will get a total of 6 questions in two debates against Barack Obama, and I will guarantee you that three of them will be about race. And two will be about his work for Freddie Mac and the millions his “think tank” got from the health insurance industry. And the other one will be about how Bill Clinton is campaigning for Obama and telling everyone that Newt had nothing to do with his success in balancing the budget or the great economy of the 1990s.

They don’t allow people in the audience to show any response to the candidates in these debates. No standing ovations.

And Newt will look old and fat next to the young and trim Obama. The optics alone will be terrible, not much better than they were with John McCain.

People who just think Newt Gingrich will wipe the floor with Barack Obama in two short debates and then walk away with the election are delusional.

rockmom on January 22, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Mitt beat Newt by 30 points in New Hampshire; Newt beat Mitt by 12 points in South Carolina. Guess which state any Republican is going to win in 2012, and which state is a toss-up but must-win for the GOP candidate.

12 swing states will decide this election: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

The winner of the general election has to win at least half those states. Obama won them all in 2008. Which 6 states listed above is Newt Gingrich going to take back from Obama in 2012?

Rational Thought on January 22, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Cindy Munford on January 22, 2012 at 9:33 AM

What are they going to do, ma’am? Tout his record? Derision of other voters’ intelligence is all they have.

kingsjester on January 22, 2012 at 9:36 AM

http://www.tnr.com/blogs/the-stump

Interesting analysis.

Bradky on January 22, 2012 at 9:37 AM

Yes, Mitt as the nominee means millions of conservatives in RED states sit home. which means the Black vote in those southern states come into play. NC, GA among others will be battleground states. Hint to you. If you are having NC and GA has battleground states and you are a gop candidate you are losing. Be it his relgion, his moderation, his rich out of touch personility, his team’s dirty tricks or all four Mitt does not play well in the South nor in the Southwest. His stronghold is the Northeast and mountian states moderates/mormons. We don’t need to win Ny or PA to win the election but we sure as hell better win NC and Ga if we want a victory. Mitt brings nothing to the ticket in those terms. 2012 will be a base on base election. the myth of moderates will not appear in 2012 anymore than it appeared in 2008. You want a landlside nominate a republician that the base can support. Mitt is not that man.

unseen on January 22, 2012 at 8:38 AM

I’m familiar with the larger electoral dynamics. I was just wondering if in the face of a second term for the Kenyan Marxist, serious conservatives would really stay home and also if you don’t think that there’s the chance of offsetting moderates who would be turned off by Ginginrich — not a likeable or tolerant fellow — shifting into the GOP column for Romney. Clearly, it’s imprtant to fire up the base. Just as clearly, in the general, that’s not eough.

urban elitist on January 22, 2012 at 8:48 AM

It might be close to six on one side and half a dozen on the other.
However, some polls show the country as a whole turning more conservative. Personally, I think conservatives are ready to
vote out the Marxist and vote anyone in who will reverse his
policies. Newt, 80-90% yes. Santorum, ? Romney, not so much.

What is the definition of a “moderate” politically speaking?
Somehow I think a moderate is someone who is not really politically interested.

Amjean on January 22, 2012 at 9:37 AM

Only 28 house members voted against charging Newt with ethica violations. So yeah it was totally a laughable partisan witch hunt.

libfreeordie on January 22, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Charges are somewhat different from convictions.

ddrintn on January 22, 2012 at 9:38 AM

The same people who were worried Romney would run away with it by the time SC voted were bemoaning how 3 states could make the difference, etc. Now that Newt has pulled off an impressive win in SC they are declaring it over… funny….
Bradky on January 22, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Weird how that works.

So yeah it was totally a laughable partisan witch hunt.

libfreeordie on January 22, 2012 at 9:34 AM

The charges were found to be without merit right?

CW on January 22, 2012 at 9:38 AM

kingsjester on January 22, 2012 at 9:36 AM

I was a Gingrich fan sometime back and when the chance of a Palin run was still in the mix took more than a few hits for that.
But electability is an issue.
Do you really think that Gingrich is more electable than Romney?

Bradky on January 22, 2012 at 9:39 AM

And thank their luck stars.

chewmeister on January 22, 2012 at 9:35 AM

Read RockMom’s post. You’re delusional.

CW on January 22, 2012 at 9:39 AM

These “conservatives” aren’t too bright, I’m afraid……

Priscilla on January 22, 2012 at 8:51 AM

Anyone voting for Romney has no clue what conservatism is…

razorbackchick on January 22, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Mitt beat Newt by 30 points in New Hampshire; Newt beat Mitt by 12 points in South Carolina.

Rational Thought on January 22, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Yeah, but we’re told that Romney’s national organization is sooooo strong, and all you can point to is a win in a state in which he lives and which has been more or less his HQ for years now? Good grief. We’re supposed to nominate Romney because he can win NH?

ddrintn on January 22, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Hey, so what if Mitt isn’t a conservative with an (R) behind his name.
We have plenty of them already.
To name a few: McCain, Boehner, Snowe, Collins, Brown, Murkowski
And what of Bush? Couldn’t stop spending, & father of the bailouts
I don’t think of Gingrich as a conservative either, just looking at his record.

Belle on January 22, 2012 at 9:42 AM

Rational Thought on January 22, 2012 at 9:36 AM

WI and PA for starters. Both went R in the midterms. All were votes against current federal and state leftist policies.

chewmeister on January 22, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Yeah, but we’re told that Romney’s national organization is sooooo strong, and all you can point to is a win in a state in which he lives and which has been more or less his HQ for years now? Good grief. We’re supposed to nominate Romney because he can win NH?

ddrintn on January 22, 2012 at 9:41 AM

You deflected the question, so I’ll ask it again. Since you are a Newt supporter, it is a question you MUST be able to answer if you believe he can be elected president. Here it is again:

12 swing states will decide this election: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

The winner of the general election has to win at least half those states. Obama won them all in 2008. Which 6 states listed above is Newt Gingrich going to take back from Obama in 2012?

Your answer? Which six states above is Gingrich likely to win in order to win the 2012 election?

Rational Thought on January 22, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Over 3,000 comments!
If Dr. Thelsa would have hung around after 3 AM….you could have hit that figure at 6 AM! (:>)

KOOLAID2 on January 22, 2012 at 9:44 AM

I was a Gingrich fan sometime back and when the chance of a Palin run was still in the mix took more than a few hits for that.

Bradky on January 22, 2012 at 9:39 AM

Which says it all. A Mittbot pretending to be a Newt fan just to stick it to Palinistas. How pathetic is that?

ddrintn on January 22, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Newt/Callista 2012!
that’s right, he doesn’t even need a vp. Bad @$$ Callista is all the running mate he needs!!!!!

GhoulAid on January 22, 2012 at 9:45 AM

WI and PA for starters. Both went R in the midterms. All were votes against current federal and state leftist policies.

chewmeister on January 22, 2012 at 9:43 AM

That’s two, though Gingrich will never win PA. But I’ll give it to you anyway. What are the other four he’ll win to take the presidency?

Rational Thought on January 22, 2012 at 9:45 AM

CW and DD

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/govt/leadership/stories/011897.htm

Newt admitted he broke House rules and then he resigned. Its a campaign ad in the making

Rockmon did you know you’re a socialist now? Join the club!

libfreeordie on January 22, 2012 at 9:45 AM

kingsjester on January 22, 2012 at 9:36 AM

I disagree, he has a formidable record as a business man and instead of playing up his success he complains that the failures are being highlighted. Someone on a thread yesterday had a brilliant idea of comparing Gov. Romney’s business investments to Obama’s business investment of the taxpayers money. That would be so incredibly powerful. How about the Olympics, he did a great job there! And while I think too much is being made of Newt’s attacks on the media, he is stellar at “disagreeing with the premise”. Push back at the wording and the promotion of preconceived notions of Republicans.

Cindy Munford on January 22, 2012 at 9:45 AM

I live in NJ, and saw how Christie won in a deep blue state. All of my moderate/independent friends now support him and want Romney to be the next POTUS. Not one would vote for Newt. I would, but I’m ABO….not one of of them would. They can’t stand him, and would hold their noses and vote for Obama.

Priscilla on January 22, 2012 at 9:28 AM

This is the problem. You live in NJ, and you and your NJ friends want Romney to be President. But we don’t care what NJ thinks, because your state’s electorate is deep-blue and will never vote Republican for President in 2012. We care about who excites the base in the deep-red states, and who can win the purple states. Being the preferred candidate of self-described “moderates and independents” in deep-blue states like Illinois, NJ, California, etc. is, if anything, a mark of shame for a GOP candidate.

Lawdawg86 on January 22, 2012 at 9:45 AM

ddrintn on January 22, 2012 at 9:44 AM

LOL — nice try at the mischaracterization. Do me a favor and answer Rational Thought’s question please.

Bradky on January 22, 2012 at 9:45 AM

My son will be a first time voter in this election. He was only a year old when Newt Gingrich left the House. He has no idea who this guy is or why he should be President. He can’t figure out what Gingrich is for that the others aren’t. What he sees is a fat old guy who likes to be a smartass in debates. He doesn’t want to vote for Obama but I don’t think he will vote for Gingrich.

rockmom on January 22, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Newt admitted he broke House rules and then he resigned. Its a campaign ad in the making

Rockmon did you know you’re a socialist now? Join the club!

libfreeordie on January 22, 2012 at 9:45 AM

LOL

rockmom on January 22, 2012 at 9:47 AM

Nikki Haley sure crapped in her hat. She should have endorsed Newt or stayed neutral. Big mistake, Haley. Conservative South Carolinians who got you elected will not forget. Count on it. The fact that the three largest county Republican Parties in the state have censored Lindsay Graham and has told him he is not welcome to attend any of their sponsored events, should have told her that endoesing Mittens would be a bad idea.

Jeb really wanted to endorse Mittens, but is playing both sides against the middle. I suspect Rubio will do the same.

they lie on January 22, 2012 at 9:47 AM

You deflected the question, so I’ll ask it again. Since you are a Newt supporter, it is a question you MUST be able to answer if you believe he can be elected president.

Rational Thought on January 22, 2012 at 9:43 AM

I’m not a Newt supporter.

Considering that unstoppable Mitt has been shown to be quite stoppable, which of those swing states do you think he’d take by storm? None of them. None. The electability argument that’s been propping up Romney for years now is going out the window, whether you like it or not.

ddrintn on January 22, 2012 at 9:47 AM

they lie on January 22, 2012 at 9:47 AM

I really doubt that Haley is such a wallflower that she curled up into the fetal position in fear…
Nothing wrong with Jeb or Rubio holding out on endorsements. Make ‘em earn it is not a bad strategy. the real question is will the ABR’s respect the effort if he does earn the nomination?

Bradky on January 22, 2012 at 9:49 AM

The electability argument that’s been propping up Romney for years now is going out the window, whether you like it or not.

Electability in a general has very, very little to do with electability in a primary (see Christine O’Donnell, Sharon Angle). You Mitt-haters are showing a significant amount of ignorance on that point. Argue for your guy with facts, please.

Priscilla on January 22, 2012 at 9:50 AM

That’s two, though Gingrich will never win PA. But I’ll give it to you anyway. What are the other four he’ll win to take the presidency?

Rational Thought on January 22, 2012 at 9:45 AM

“Gingrich will never win PA.” Just a few months ago no Mittbot would’ve considered the possibility that Gingrich would win a single primary, either. It’s called “myopia”.

ddrintn on January 22, 2012 at 9:50 AM

That’s two, though Gingrich will never win PA. But I’ll give it to you anyway. What are the other four he’ll win to take the presidency?

Rational Thought on January 22, 2012 at 9:45 AM

No way the GOP wins WI and PA, Dems have been organizing in WI ever since the anti-union campaign of Walker. And PA has enough older voters who remember who Newt Gingrich is, and do not like him. Gingrich easily wins back N.C. and VA which really shouldn’t have been swing states in the first place. But thats about it. No way Newt wins N.M. or Nevada with his anti-latino statements. Colorado will be very close.

libfreeordie on January 22, 2012 at 9:50 AM

Electability in a general has very, very little to do with electability in a primary (see Christine O’Donnell, Sharon Angle). You Mitt-haters are showing a significant amount of ignorance on that point. Argue for your guy with facts, please.

Priscilla on January 22, 2012 at 9:50 AM

You mean “facts” as in “why not just do away with the primary process and just choose a nominee based on who’s leading in Gallup two years out from the election”? That sort of “fact”? You have no other basis than polls on which to base some sort of electability myth around Romney. Now if the polls start showing Gingrich doing better against Obama than Romney, are you going to become a Gingrich fan for the sake of electability?

ddrintn on January 22, 2012 at 9:53 AM

My son will be a first time voter in this election. He was only a year old when Newt Gingrich left the House. He has no idea who this guy is or why he should be President. He can’t figure out what Gingrich is for that the others aren’t. What he sees is a fat old guy who likes to be a smartass in debates. He doesn’t want to vote for Obama but I don’t think he will vote for Gingrich.

rockmom on January 22, 2012 at 9:45 AM

I don’t mean to offend, but are you really suggesting that we should take our cues from your teenage son, who by your own description evidences little knowledge of politics and history, and has zero experience in the real world?

Lawdawg86 on January 22, 2012 at 9:53 AM

rockmom on January 22, 2012 at 9:45 AM

I have three adult children and they don’t like any of them.

Cindy Munford on January 22, 2012 at 9:54 AM

I can’t believe that so many people still think that questioning the intelligence of fellow voters is the way to promote their candidate.

Cindy Munford on January 22, 2012 at 9:33 AM

Leftist always think that.

bgibbs1000 on January 22, 2012 at 9:54 AM

FIRST!!!!!

hillbillyjim on January 22, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Dems have been organizing in WI ever since the anti-union campaign of Walker.

libfreeordie on January 22, 2012 at 9:50 AM

My hippy dippy, organic farming, green party sister begs to differ. She is so PO’d at the Dems wasting money on Walker’s recall and recent thuggery of the unions, she is going to vote Republican for the first time ever.

Fallon on January 22, 2012 at 9:55 AM

ddrintn on January 22, 2012 at 9:50 AM

Romney was not expected to get fourth in Iowa either. You are making observations on the general election based on anecdotal info from the primaries.

Please answer RT’s question and tell us who you are for if not Newt?

Bradky on January 22, 2012 at 9:55 AM

I wonder how many S.C. voters will awake this morning, sans beer-goggles, and realize that they are in bed with a dirty, old goat?

Pork-Chop on January 22, 2012 at 9:55 AM

Do you really think that Gingrich is more electable than Romney?

Bradky on January 22, 2012 at 9:39 AM

According to the voters of South Carolina, he is.

kingsjester on January 22, 2012 at 9:55 AM

Only 28 house members voted against charging Newt with ethics violations. So yeah it was totally a laughable partisan witch hunt.

libfreeordie on January 22, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Newt was Borked. We’ve seen it now enough times to recognize it when it happens. He was Palinized. Congresscritters are weak and they’ll fold like cheap suits if the mainstream media decides to direct its propaganda against someone who doesn’t play nice and go along to get along with all the others as do Bohner and McConnell. Anyone who honestly looks at the charges against Newt realizes right away how bogus they were. In those days, without the Internet, conservatives had no vehicle for pushback, and politicians didn’t make waves once media consensus had formed. Cain just allowed this despicable process to happen, but Newt is going to do things differently this time around.

Burke on January 22, 2012 at 9:55 AM

No way the GOP wins WI and PA, Dems have been organizing in WI ever since the anti-union campaign of Walker.

libfreeordie on January 22, 2012 at 9:50 AM

And all that Dem organizing hasn’t been all that impressive. It’s accomplished little. I think WI can go red.

ddrintn on January 22, 2012 at 9:55 AM

FIRST!!!!!

hillbillyjim on January 22, 2012 at 9:54 AM

…in our hearts <3.

Fallon on January 22, 2012 at 9:56 AM

Cindy Munford on January 22, 2012 at 9:54 AM

So do I and they seem to share your kids opinions. May be a lot of twenty somethings not voting in the general this time around.

Bradky on January 22, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Cindy Munford on January 22, 2012 at 9:45 AM

You make an excellent point. Unfortunately, the face of his Massachusetts governorship has a great big mole on it, which one cannot avoid seeing: Romneycare.

kingsjester on January 22, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Romney was not expected to get fourth in Iowa either. You are making observations on the general election based on anecdotal info from the primaries.

At the time of the primary Romney was supposed to win, not be caught by some guy who was polling in the single digits a couple of weeks before. Romney is weak. Face it.

Please answer RT’s question and tell us who you are for if not Newt?

Bradky on January 22, 2012 at 9:55 AM

I love how after 3 years or so of sniping from the bushes and flinging poo without committing to any candidate, the Mittbots are into the “well who do YOU support?” thing.

ddrintn on January 22, 2012 at 9:59 AM

Pork-Chop on January 22, 2012 at 9:55 AM

i don’t know about the voters in S.C., but i’m about to stand at Newt’s bedside and tell Callista to scram. then i’d slide up to dirty, old goat Newt, and hug him real close and thank him for sticking up for Catholics, and sticking it to CNN, romney and the republican establishmnet.

GhoulAid on January 22, 2012 at 9:59 AM

Rockmom has a point. Appearance to the average voter, who may be uninformed, is important. Look at Reagan. He was older, but his appearance was vibrant, & yes, youthful. Gingrich lacks that.

Belle on January 22, 2012 at 10:00 AM

No way the GOP wins WI and PA, Dems have been organizing in WI ever since the anti-union campaign of Walker.

libfreeordie on January 22, 2012 at 9:50 AM

Keep telling yourself that.

Sans a manufactured “crisis”, OBrainy will be lucky to win any state if the O-conomy gets much worse.

hillbillyjim on January 22, 2012 at 10:00 AM

Considering that unstoppable Mitt has been shown to be quite stoppable, which of those swing states do you think he’d take by storm? None of them. None. The electability argument that’s been propping up Romney for years now is going out the window, whether you like it or not.

ddrintn on January 22, 2012 at 9:47 AM

I don’t think he will necessarily take any “by storm,” and I did not use that phrasing in asking which of those states Gingrich will take. But of the 12 swing states — Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin — I believe Mitt will take Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, and New Hampshire; will be very competitive in Michigan, Ohio, New Mexico, and Iowa; will be slightly less competitive in Wisconsin; and will lose Pennsylvania.

So, Mitt will take 5 of the necessary 6 and compete quite well in 4 others.

Which will Gingrich take?

Rational Thought on January 22, 2012 at 10:01 AM

Newt will get a total of 6 questions in two debates against Barack Obama, and I will guarantee you that three of them will be about race. And two will be about his work for Freddie Mac and the millions his “think tank” got from the health insurance industry. And the other one will be about how Bill Clinton is campaigning for Obama and telling everyone that Newt had nothing to do with his success in balancing the budget or the great economy of the 1990s.

They don’t allow people in the audience to show any response to the candidates in these debates. No standing ovations.

And Newt will look old and fat next to the young and trim Obama. The optics alone will be terrible, not much better than they were with John McCain.

People who just think Newt Gingrich will wipe the floor with Barack Obama in two short debates and then walk away with the election are delusional.

rockmom on January 22, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Right, let’s play games and decide our nominee based on the moderators of debates! I’m sure they’ll treat Mittens with kid gloves though if he’s challenging Dear Leader.

Newsflash: any GOP candidate will get ridiculous questions and the moderators/media will do anything they can to make them look bad. When need somoene who’ll stand up to them like Newt has done this week, not some wimp who’ll take it like Mittens and Mccain.

LevinFan on January 22, 2012 at 10:01 AM

BTW, Romney did rather well on Chris Wallace’s show this AM.

hillbillyjim on January 22, 2012 at 10:02 AM

kingsjester on January 22, 2012 at 9:36 AM
I disagree, he has a formidable record as a business man and instead of playing up his success he complains that the failures are being highlighted. Someone on a thread yesterday had a brilliant idea of comparing Gov. Romney’s business investments to Obama’s business investment of the taxpayers money. That would be so incredibly powerful. How about the Olympics, he did a great job there! And while I think too much is being made of Newt’s attacks on the media, he is stellar at “disagreeing with the premise”. Push back at the wording and the promotion of preconceived notions of Republicans.

Cindy Munford on January 22, 2012 at 9:45 AM


He’s my third choice, and I remember what he did for the Olympics.
He’s like Bill Clinton…finger to the wind…he’d be a ‘polling’ president…and hopefully have the House and Senate to poll/pull him in the right direction. I don’t understand the hate I see in here at times.
Christie and Gingrich…two fat guys that can bend the media over…and we love it! Big Deal!
Look who’s in office now! Ron Paul looks like Ronald Reagan to me right now!

KOOLAID2 on January 22, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Now it,s said the establishment Rinos are thinking about running favorite sons in the rest of the primaries to stop Newt and save their phony bologna jobs.These people are playing with fire and i hope they get burned .

logman1 on January 22, 2012 at 10:03 AM

12 swing states will decide this election: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Wisconsin.

The winner of the general election has to win at least half those states. Obama won them all in 2008. Which 6 states listed above is Newt Gingrich going to take back from Obama in 2012?

Rational Thought on January 22, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Newt takes Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin and Nevada.

Florida, because 0bama didn’t take it by that much, and he’s not going to do as well nationally as he did in ’08.

Michigan because the economic disaster has deepened under 0bama, and people are desperate for a change.

Wisconsin because it was in play last time, and the undercurrent demonstrated by the election of Gov. Walker will flip it back R.

Ohio – just a hunch on this one – mainly for the same reasons as Michigan. Jobs, jobs, jobs.

North Carolina, despite Charlotte and Raleigh/Durham, because North Carolina is still part of the South, and 0bama is going to lose the entire South, no matter who the GOP nominee is. The resentment down there is palpable.

Nevada – this on’e actually a no-brainer. Between the atrocious unemployment numbers, and 0bama’s PR war against Vegas, the Vegas establishment is going to form a solid ABO bloc of influence. Vegas wants 0bey gone, and there’s no way he takes Nevada.

cane_loader on January 22, 2012 at 10:04 AM

So, Mitt will take 5 of the necessary 6 and compete quite well in 4 others.

Which will Gingrich take?

Rational Thought on January 22, 2012 at 10:01 AM

Gingrich would be just as competitive in any state in which Romney is. I don’t see any evidence other than the “Romney’s Da Man” crap we’ve been getting over the past several years to justify thinking that Romney is any more electable than Ron Paul, even.

ddrintn on January 22, 2012 at 10:05 AM

Oops, in my list I meant to say “North Carolina,” not “Virginia.”

I don’t know if Newt could take Virginia. Too many government worker bees who know they would lose their jobs.

cane_loader on January 22, 2012 at 10:06 AM

KOOLAID2 on January 22, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Your use of italics, bolds and quote blocks remains inspiring. Which meds are you on again?

libfreeordie on January 22, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Do you really think that Gingrich is more electable than Romney?

Bradky on January 22, 2012 at 9:39 AM

According to the voters of South Carolina, he is.

kingsjester on January 22, 2012 at 9:55 AM

The Republican candidate, whomever he is, is going to win South Carolina. South Carolina is not in play in the general election.

These states are: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

The winner of the 2012 contest must win half of those. Which six are Gingrich going to win? That is the answer to the question of electability. What’s your answer?

Rational Thought on January 22, 2012 at 10:07 AM

People who just think Newt Gingrich will wipe the floor with Barack Obama in two short debates and then walk away with the election are delusional.

rockmom on January 22, 2012 at 9:36 AM

That is absolutely true, rockmom, but there’s more to campaigning than debates. There are those pesky interviews which require candidates to think on their feet and not act stupid. McCain blurted out that he didn’t “know much about economics” not in a debate but in an answer to a reporter’s simple question. Newt can think on his feet and explain ideas extemporaneously which McCain, Bush, Dole, and Ford could not.

Burke on January 22, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Lawdawg86 on January 22, 2012 at 9:45 AM

NJ went Reagan, NJ threw out Corzine and Christie’s approval ratings have soared as he has balanced the budget and fought the teachers union. It is a state with over 10% unemployment under Obama. You can claim that NJ would not go red against Obama, but since you -obviously – don’t know anything about the state, check out Obama’s/Romney’s approval ratings here, to see that Romney could win the state.

Granted, that is unlikely. But NJ’s swing state neighbor,PA, would have a great shot at going red for Romney. Gingrich….ummm, no.

Priscilla on January 22, 2012 at 10:08 AM

rockmom on January 22, 2012 at 9:36 AM

I don’t think he would debate Newt. Why should he?

Cindy Munford on January 22, 2012 at 10:09 AM

These states are: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Rational Thought on January 22, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Are you saying that these states are “moderate”, and that to win “moderate” votes you ave to run a “moderate” candidate”?

ddrintn on January 22, 2012 at 10:10 AM

States that will never vote Gingrich:

Colorado, due to the poisonous influx of liberal idiots from the coasts.

New Mexico, because Santa Fe is San Francisco of the desert, and the entitlement mentality and the liberal idiocy runs deep in that state. I don’t see New Mexico ever going Republican in the next 50 years.

cane_loader on January 22, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Darn, this is depressing!
Mitt, a liberal republican
Newt, a big government guy
What’s the choice?
Will the true conservative please stand up?

Belle on January 22, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Oh my, it looks like someone pissed in Prissy’s cornflakes this morning.

Let’s break her shrill shrieks down and let the good people of SC answer them according to the CNN exit poll.

I find it hard to believe that the people of SC would vote for him on the basis of a couple of questions from Juan Williams and John King, but there is a great desire for someone to smack down Obama in a debate, and I suppose they feel that Newt is the one to do it.

Priscilla on January 22, 2012 at 8:07 AM

According to the poll:

Most Important Candidate Quality – 45% said to beat Obama – Gingrich got 51% to Romney’s 37%

…the neverending stories of how Mitt’s nomination was a done deal probably kept them from coming out against Newt who, until the last 2 debates, was doing nothing but attacking capitalism and doing Obama’s campaign work for him.
Priscilla on January 22, 2012 at 9:28 AM

According to the poll:

When asked who ran the most “unfair campaign” 6% said Gingrich, 49% said Romney

Don’t kid yourself, moderates vote, they want to vote for someone who they perceive as better than Obama, and they will see Newt as worse than Obama.
Priscilla on January 22, 2012 at 9:28 AM

According to the poll:

Moderate or Liberal voters went 31% for Gingrich, 34% for Romney

Apparently the moderates don’t see Romney as that much better than Gingrich.

All of my moderate/independent friends now support him and want Romney to be the next POTUS.
Priscilla on January 22, 2012 at 9:28 AM

According to the poll:

Independents- Gingrich got 31%, Romney 25%

You may want to take a closer look at the CNN exit poll Prissy, because 99% of the predictions you and other Romney supporters have been harping about for the past 4 days were wrong. Guess you’re not as smahrt as you’d like to think you are.

Oh and btw, I dare you to go to any breakfast diner in SC this morning and tell the “fools” there they “aren’t too bright”.

Flora Duh on January 22, 2012 at 10:11 AM

NJ went Reagan, NJ threw out Corzine and Christie’s approval ratings have soared as he has balanced the budget and fought the teachers union.

Priscilla on January 22, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Last I heard his prospects for re-election are doubtful.

ddrintn on January 22, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Iowa is a puzzle for me. It has a stubborn history of going Dem when states around it go GOP. But maybe Newt’s asinine support of ethanol subsidies will be enough.

cane_loader on January 22, 2012 at 10:12 AM

They’re not independent voters, they are American voters!

mike_NC9 on January 22, 2012 at 10:12 AM

So, just to be clear, that whole sanctity of marriage thing still applies when it comes to us gays, right?

McDuck on January 22, 2012 at 10:14 AM

cane_loader on January 22, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Ok. You’ve answered the question. And your Newt electability scenario is dependent on him winning Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Nevada. I just don’t see that happening. Michigan, which I’m quite familiar with, will never, ever go Newt. It won’t even be close. Wisconsin? Never. Ohio? Nevada? Who knows, but I don’t think so. I just don’t see a path. I see a bigger margin of win for Obama than in 08 with a Newt candidacy. Much bigger.

Rational Thought on January 22, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Fox pretending the Haircut still has an 18 point lead in Fl. Even the Mittards don’t believe that any longer.

Typhonian on January 22, 2012 at 10:15 AM

Mitt has run for office for years and he finally won one race: Governor. And that race he won with < 50% of the vote. He left after one term with low approval ratings.

Why would anyone think that Mitt was electable. He can't even carry his own state in the General Election.

I would think, with that totally awesome healthcare plan he left his state, that the people of Massachusetts would be clamoring to elect Mitt. /s

JonBGood on January 22, 2012 at 10:15 AM

kingsjester on January 22, 2012 at 9:58 AM

I have made fun of Romney supporters for wanting special dispensation for Massachusetts but it is indeed a very different state. I wish he had pushed back more. In the general I think Romneycare and Obamacare are a wash, how are either of them going to argue that. What I wish Gov. Romney would do is point out what the unintended consequences have been and push home that it would be a disaster on a national level.

Cindy Munford on January 22, 2012 at 10:16 AM

And your Newt electability scenario is dependent on him winning Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Nevada. I just don’t see that happening. Michigan, which I’m quite familiar with, will never, ever go Newt. It won’t even be close. Wisconsin? Never.

Rational Thought on January 22, 2012 at 10:14 AM

So what makes you think they’d vote Romney any quicker than they’d vote Gingrich? Because that’s what the pundits have told you?

ddrintn on January 22, 2012 at 10:16 AM

McDuck on January 22, 2012 at 10:14 AM

The fact that so many of us fail to live up to the high ideal of the sanctity of marriage proves to me that it’s a high ideal worthy of protecting.

mike_NC9 on January 22, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Will the true conservative please stand up?

Belle on January 22, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Not this time.

Cindy Munford on January 22, 2012 at 10:17 AM

According to the poll:

Independents- Gingrich got 31%, Romney 25%

You may want to take a closer look at the CNN exit poll Prissy, because 99% of the predictions you and other Romney supporters have been harping about for the past 4 days were wrong. Guess you’re not as smahrt as you’d like to think you are.

Oh and btw, I dare you to go to any breakfast diner in SC this morning and tell the “fools” there they “aren’t too bright”.

Flora Duh on January 22, 2012 at 10:11 AM

Good Morning! And thank you for injecting some real facts into the Mittswarm of irrationality. ;-)

It’s going to be a bumpy ride, the Mittbots are coming unhinged. ;-0

JonBGood on January 22, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Why would anyone think that Mitt was electable. He can’t even carry his own state in the General Election.

I would think, with that totally awesome healthcare plan he left his state, that the people of Massachusetts would be clamoring to elect Mitt. /s

JonBGood on January 22, 2012 at 10:15 AM

Yeah, in all seriousness I just can’t figure out where that electability myth comes from. I don’t see how anyone could think the guy is some sort of sure-fire juggernaut.

ddrintn on January 22, 2012 at 10:19 AM

I find it hard to believe that the people of SC would vote for him on the basis of a couple of questions from Juan Williams and John King, but there is a great desire for someone to smack down Obama in a debate, and I suppose they feel that Newt is the one to do it.

Priscilla on January 22, 2012 at 8:07 AM

There really is a pent-up anger in the country that no one ever tells 0bama to his face what he’s screwed up – that no one ever lays a glove on him, and that he’s protected by the corrupt MSM.

I think that seeing Newt repeated slap down the corrupt MSM not only is catharsis for many voters, it gives them hope that Newt would be the one to finally tell 0bama to his face that he has no clothes.

Don’t underestimate the power of debates. People’s attention spans further shrunk since ’08, due to the exponential rise in social media (Facebook & Twitter, esp.). They are not going to pay attention to many of the issues. The only thing that will motivate the majority of lazy voters is seeing a cage match – because the debates have become like the NFL playoffs: even people who don’t watch football all year tune in.

The exit polling in SC showed that the debates were a big factor, despite the oft-stated opinion of many here that debates don’t matter.

In our dumbed-down culture, people will vote for the candidate who lays down the biggest “smackdown” moments in the debate. The election will be won or lost, right there. In this category, I think most would agree the Gingrich is the king of this cycle.

Should Gingrich smack down 0bama, then run over him, then back up and run over him again, and do it in easily understandable terms, that will likely be the end of King Barry.

People don’t want to vote for the weak horse, and if Newt pwns Barry in the debates, Newt will win.

cane_loader on January 22, 2012 at 10:20 AM

12 swing states will decide this election: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

The winner of the general election has to win at least half those states. Obama won them all in 2008. Which 6 states listed above is Newt Gingrich going to take back from Obama in 2012?

Your answer? Which six states above is Gingrich likely to win in order to win the 2012 election?

Rational Thought on January 22, 2012 at 9:43 AM

I’ll play the electability game. The thing you moderates keep forgetting is that the BASE will not be motivated to vote/support Mittens. It was the same thing in 2008, that’s why we lost southern states like NC, VA, and Fl.

Swing states Mittens could win: Florida, Michigan, Nevada, NH

Swing states Newt could win: Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, NC, Ohio, Va. There’s 7 states for Newt, 4 for Mittens. Newt would have a decent shot in NH too.

LevinFan on January 22, 2012 at 10:20 AM

ddrintn on January 22, 2012 at 10:16 AM

I would think that Michigan would go for Romney, wasn’t his father a successful governor there? I understand his desire not to want to follow too closely to his father’s path but he should have stuck with Michigan as his political home instead of MA. It’s a sin what Michigan has had to go through.

Cindy Munford on January 22, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Don’t forget that the last wave that put Reagan over the top in ’80 was when he creamed Carter in the last debate. Polls showed that that was where the election was won.

Reagan tapped into the pent-up frustration of people out of work in a down economy. We have the same set-up here, with 0bama.

cane_loader on January 22, 2012 at 10:22 AM

JonBGood on January 22, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Good morning Jon. I learned a long time ago that an opinion is only as reliable as the person expressing it thinks it is, thus why I’d rather depend on facts.

Have a great day. BGood, but if you can’t, be careful.

Flora Duh on January 22, 2012 at 10:24 AM

Anybody remember the term,“Yellow Dog Democrats”? It came from a Dem convention when a southern delegation was asked about their backing of a particular candidate they said,“If you nominate a yellow dog, we’ll vote for it!”
That’s how I feel about this Republican group, except these guys aren’t that much better than dogs of any color. I’m sure once the general begins, I’ll be motivated by Obama and his attack machine to vote for whichever dog the GOP gives us.

cartooner on January 22, 2012 at 10:24 AM

Swing states Newt could win: Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, NC, Ohio, Va. There’s 7 states for Newt, 4 for Mittens. Newt would have a decent shot in NH too.

LevinFan on January 22, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Do you really think that the libs in Boulder and Aspen are going to go red?

And wake me up when N.M. ever goes back red. That state’s a lost cause. I think N.M. has about the same chance of going red as N.Y.

Gutsy pick on Va. Lots of gov’t workers are going to be voting to protect their gov’t jobs.

cane_loader on January 22, 2012 at 10:24 AM

BREAKING……………………………………..

Family says Penn State coach Joe Paterno,

who was battling lung cancer, died Sunday at 85

– @APStory metadata:
Submitted 1 min ago from http://www.nbcsports.msnbc.com by editor
http://www.breakingnews.com/
=================================

Paterno loses battle with lung cancerLegenday Penn State coach, 85, leads all in college wins
*****************************

http://www.nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/46085007

canopfor on January 22, 2012 at 10:26 AM

canopfor on January 22, 2012 at 10:27 AM

The problem for Mitt and Romneycare is that at its core, it is anti-liberty and antithetical to Republican philosophy. How do you defend that?

And many Baystaters would like to get rid of Romneycare and Romney. ;-)

Here’s why: The impact of Romneycare

An analysis of Romneycare by Suffolk University’s Beacon Hill Institute found that, on average, Romneycare:

•    cost the Bay State 18,313 jobs;

•    drove up total health insurance costs in Massachusetts by $4.311 billion;

•    slowed the growth of disposable income per person by $376; and

•    reduced investment in Massachusetts by $25.06 million.

In addition:

“the state’s health-care costs have been heavily subsidized by billions of dollars in federal aid through a Medicaid waiver program.”

Who do you think has to pay for those subsidized costs after the federal money runs out?

JonBGood on January 22, 2012 at 10:27 AM

Gutsy pick on Va. Lots of gov’t workers are going to be voting to protect their gov’t jobs.

cane_loader on January 22, 2012 at 10:24 AM

It’s not as bad as they think. Hiring freezes, attrition and across the board cost cutting would help a ton and the only pain is they may have to actually do a full days work.

mike_NC9 on January 22, 2012 at 10:27 AM

I see a bigger margin of win for Obama than in 08 with a Newt candidacy. Much bigger.

Rational Thought on January 22, 2012 at 10:14 AM

I can’t buy that, though. I can’t buy the basic premise that 0bama is going to get more votes in ’12 than in ’08. He’s pissed off too many people, broken too many promises, the “newness” is worn off, and he’s screwed up too many things, and the country’s in too bad a shape.

Plus, you’re saying that McCain would do better than Gigrich or Romney? Head to head, either of the latter could have spanked McCain head to head.

If 0bama wins, I think it would be a squeaker, likely abetted by massive vote fraud.

cane_loader on January 22, 2012 at 10:28 AM

Speaking of predictions:

I’m going with both road teams today: Ravens and Gmen!!

LevinFan on January 22, 2012 at 10:28 AM

Have a great day. BGood, but if you can’t, be careful.

Flora Duh on January 22, 2012 at 10:24 AM

Thank you! Have a great day! I will be “Good.” ;-)

JonBGood on January 22, 2012 at 10:30 AM

Flora Duh on January 22, 2012 at 10:11 AM

I noticed there is no mention of how many Democrats voted in the primary, I wonder if the information was available since it is an open primary. I know the Democrats won’t have a primary on the presidential level but I wonder if voting in this one would have any impact of their ability to vote on primaries for other offices later?

Cindy Munford on January 22, 2012 at 10:31 AM

Do you really think that the libs in Boulder and Aspen are going to go red?

And wake me up when N.M. ever goes back red. That state’s a lost cause. I think N.M. has about the same chance of going red as N.Y.

Gutsy pick on Va. Lots of gov’t workers are going to be voting to protect their gov’t jobs.

cane_loader on January 22, 2012 at 10:24 AM

Good points. You never know. Didn’t realize that Santa Fe was such a cesspool, I knew Bill Richardson was Governor….

My point remains though that you need the base to be excited to win. The base will be alot more excited for Newt than the Establishment Mittens.

As you pointed out, Newt could take Michigan, Wisconsin. I think he could have a decent shot in PA and NH.

LevinFan on January 22, 2012 at 10:33 AM

canopfor on January 22, 2012 at 10:27 AM

Hi Canopfor! I am sorry to hear that news. It was such a shame that his career ended the way it did.

JonBGood on January 22, 2012 at 10:33 AM

As you pointed out, Newt could take Michigan, Wisconsin. I think he could have a decent shot in PA and NH.

LevinFan on January 22, 2012 at 10:33 AM

And there’s some other states that went blue last time that won’t do so again…. like Indiana off the top of my head…

LevinFan on January 22, 2012 at 10:34 AM

Comment pages: 1 29 30 31 32