Open thread: South Carolina; Update: Gingrich wins; Update: Full exit poll data added; Update: Romney video added; Update: Gingrich video added; Update: Jeb Bush staying neutral

posted at 6:00 pm on January 21, 2012 by Allahpundit

Polls close at 7 p.m. ET. If PPP and ARG are right, the race should be called at around 7:01. But maybe they’re not right: More than 22,000 absentee ballots were cast, many of them before Newt’s last-minute surge, so Romney might be stronger than he seems. On the other hand, reporters are chattering about Democrats in South Carolina voting for Newt in order to prolong the Romney/Gingrich war. Read pollster Mark Blumenthal on why trying to predict a race with lots of eleventh-hour developments is a fool’s errand.

Here’s Google’s page for South Carolina election returns. Assuming Newt wins, the margin obviously matters in shaping the pre-Florida spin. If it’s narrow, Romney will claim that Gingrich won only because SC is in his backyard. If it’s wide, you’ll hear the phrase “aura of inevitability shattered” roughly eight thousand times over the next few days. See Ed’s post this morning on why Romney probably isn’t worried, even if he ends up swamped tonight. He’s piling up absentee ballots in Florida, where he currently holds a huge lead, and rumors continue to fly about him rolling out Jeb Bush for the big endorsement at an opportune moment. And then there’s this:

After Florida, Gingrich’s outlook becomes even more bleak. The February calendar presents Romney with the opportunity to do to Gingrich what Barack Obama did to Hillary Clinton in 2008. Caucuses in Nevada, Colorado, and Minnesota will benefit a more organized campaign, giving Romney and Rep. Ron Paul a boost over Gingrich. The two primaries that month, in Arizona and Michigan, will take place on Romney-friendly turf; Arizona has a sizable Mormon electorate, while Michigan is Romney’s home state. By the end of February, Romney is likely to have the majority of the 274 delegates awarded to that point. Paul’s focus on caucus states means Gingrich may not even be in second place by the end of the month.

Then comes Super Tuesday, when 10 states will allocate a total of 407 delegates. With few debates left on the horizon, Gingrich won’t have the time, the exposure, or the money to build the type of national campaign Romney has already started to build (Gingrich isn’t even eligible for the 46 delegates from Virginia; his campaign didn’t submit enough valid signatures to make the ballot there).

In short, South Carolina presents Gingrich’s last real chance to be on equal footing with Romney before the race goes national. Barring a sustained surge in campaign contributions for Gingrich and a real stumble by Romney’s campaign, the reality is that the race for the Republican nod is as clear today as it was before Gingrich’s revitalization: There will be no extended fight for delegates a la Obama-Clinton, there will be no brokered convention, and Romney will be the Republican nominee. The deck is stacked too much in Romney’s favor to give Gingrich’s campaign anything more than a temporary reprieve.

Once Gingrich is formally crowned Not Romney tonight and becomes the last real obstacle to Mitt’s nomination, he shouldn’t have any trouble raising money for months to come. One of his advisors told Stephen Hayes, in fact, that Newt will be in it until the convention. I wouldn’t rule out a “real stumble” from Romney on the trail either. As effective as Gingrich has been this week, Romney has been terrible, hemming and hawing about his tax returns to feed the suspicion that he has something to hide and letting his campaign stupidly float the idea that he might back out of one of the Florida debates, which plays right into Newt’s message that he isn’t tough enough to handle Obama. He won’t implode in a flash the way Perry did with his answer on in-state tuition for illegals, but if he continues to look weak and untrustworthy he could bleed enough support to keep Gingrich going.

Here’s your thread to follow results; lots of updates to come, including a link to the exit polls as soon as they’re available. Ed will be on Hugh Hewitt’s show sometime between 7 and 9 p.m. ET to talk about the results, so be sure to tune into that too.

Update: The hard feelings begin before the vote ends:

Not to be outdone, Romney’s campaign later put out a statement celebrating the “15th anniversary” of the House decision to reprimand Gingrich for ethics violations, during his days as speaker. The Romney campaign plans to deliver an anniversary cake to Gingrich’s South Carolina headquarters to mark the occasion on Saturday.

Update: Behold, my friends, as Team Romney prepares the ultimate “You know who this benefits?” spin:

“I think we’re going to lose tonight, we could lose big,” the aide said, speaking on condition of anonymity. “But I think it’s been a terrible week for Gingrich and a great week for us.”

From the former Speaker’s demonization of Romney’s business record, to his decision to indignantly deflect criticism from his ex-wife, the aide said Gingrich has ensured that he won’t win the Republican nomination…

Of course, a loss is still a loss, and up until very recently, Romney and his surrogates had been predicting a first-place finish in the Palmetto State. Asked whether Romney’s collapse in the polls is forcing Romney’s campaign to consult its own mortality, the aide laughed.

“Oh God, no,” he said. “I mean, to face Newt Gingrich?”

Update: Here comes the exit poll data. You know who this doesn’t benefit?

Sixty-four percent said the debates were an important factor for them; just 34 percent said they were not. Gingrich won standing ovations in both debates while Romney often struggled – and at one point received a smattering of boos for equivocating over how many years of his tax returns he would release.

Gingrich, who polls suggest overtook Romney in the final days before today’s primary, is hoping for a victory that would keep Romney from locking up the nomination before the end of the month. A majority of voters – 53 percent – said they made up their mind about who to back within the last few days.

Forty-five percent say electability is most important. We’ll see how that breaks between Gingrich and Romney.

Update: Looks like it’ll be a short night: “Romney aides tell Fox News they expect a second place finish based on exit polls.”

Update: Nate Silver sends a chill through Team Romney by wondering whether he’s still ahead … in Florida:

Essentially all of the polling data used for the forecast, however, predates the Monday night debate in Myrtle Beach, since which time there has been a dramatic reversal of fortunes in the Republican race. Mr. Romney has lost 15 points from his lead nationwide, according to the Gallup national tracking poll. There has been an even larger swing – a net of about 21 points between Mr. Romney and Mr. Gingrich – in South Carolina.

If the Florida polls have swung as much as the national polls during the past several days, Mr. Romney would have only about a 5-point lead there now. And if the Florida polls have swung as much as the South Carolina ones have during the last week, Mr. Gingrich and Mr. Romney would now be essentially tied there.

The wider the margin tonight, the more buzz Newt will have and, presumably, the more momentum heading into Florida. (There’s another debate on Monday too, don’t forget.) Speaking of which, here’s the answer to the electability question I posed above about the exit poll data: Of the 45 percent who said beating Obama was most important, 49 percent said Gingrich was best positioned to do it compared to just 41 percent who said Romney. In South Carolina, Newt’s the electable candidate.

Update: A picture is worth a thousand words.

Update: All the nets are calling it for Gingrich promptly at 7 p.m. Stand by for exit poll data so that we’ll have some sense of the margin.

Update: Here’s the exit poll data. Newt wins, 38/29.

Update: The most amazing thing about the exit poll is how many different demographics Newt won. Romney led by double digits less than a week ago but couldn’t hold onto his advantage in virtually any group. Newt won men, women (sorry, Marianne), independents, marrieds, singles, veterans, non-veterans, and all income groups. He won on electability and on the economy and on the deficit. He won among voters who decided today and within the last few days, and tied Romney among those who decided earlier this month. (A rare win for Romney came among those who decided before that.) He even won among those who approve of Nikki Haley’s job performance as governor, notwithstanding her endorsement of Mitt.

As for Bain, here was the response when voters were asked their view of Romney’s background of investing in and restructuring companies:

Most think positively of Romney’s career, but Mitt beats Newt within that group fairly narrowly. Among the minority who view Romney’s career negatively, Gingrich crushes Romney. Could be that the Bain attacks didn’t matter much to most voters, but to the voters who cared, they mattered a lot.

Even though Newt topped Mitt on nearly all the issues, I think this’ll be the media spin tomorrow: “Romney lost on the basis of two debates. Welcome to U.S. of American Idol”.

Update: For what it’s worth, here’s the Democratic reaction tonight via our old friend KP: “Getting ecstatic emails from my Dem operative friends re Newt.”

Update: A mind-boggling exit poll data point from John Dickerson. I guess that ABC interview with Newt’s ex didn’t work: “Gingrich got the same share of the evangelical vote in SC as Mike Huckabee in 2008. One of them is an ordained minister.”

Update: Two more tidbits from the exit poll. In case there was any doubt, yes, Gingrich killed Romney at the debates:

As for this, make of it what you will:

Update: One more and then I’ll stop. This doesn’t prove that the Bain attacks worked, but I’m not sure that’s a comfort to Mitt. If voters are starting to feel alienated by Romney’s wealth, whether because they think he doesn’t understand their problems or for other reasons, then Gingrich could become the “blue-collar candidate” by default and suddenly Mitt has a big problem:

Update: Team Mitt would have preferred to roll out the Jeb Bush endorsement closer to the Florida vote, but I guess they’re panicky about a “sinking Romney ship” narrative tomorrow. Three sources are telling CNN tonight that Jeb will in fact endorse Mitt sometime soon. Will that be enough, though, if Santorum drops out? Says PPP, “Florida Santorum voters prefer Newt over Mitt 58-32…his decision whether to stay in or not will have major implications”.

Update: Chris Cillizza of WaPo tweets that “Close Jeb Bush ally tells me that no Romney endorsement is in the works.” Jeb’s camp being coy, or is he getting cold feet about throwing in with Romney after tonight’s drubbing?

Update: Santorum’s speaking as I write this and Ed notes on Twitter that he’s using the past tense a lot. Him dropping out would be Romney’s worst nightmare, needless to say.

Update: Wouldn’t you know it, Nikki Haley couldn’t make it over to the Romney rally tonight. Sad.

Update: Here’s Mitt’s concession speech. The money line: “Our party cannot be led to victory by someone who also has never run a business, and never run a state… We cannot defeat [Obama] with a candidate who has joined in that very assault on free enterprise.”

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Update: At long last, more than three hours after the race was called for him, here’s Newt. Quote: “I articulate the deepest-felt values of the American people.”

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Update: Oh my. Did Jeb just head for the lifeboats on the S.S. Romney?

Jeb Bush, the popular former Florida governor, said he will “stay neutral” in the Republican presidential primary while warning his party’s candidates to leave the “circular firing squad” of their primary debates behind and start appealing to a broader audience of voters.

Bush’s remarks, in an exclusive interview today, come as the contest advances to Florida, where the Jan. 31 primary will take the race into its biggest and most diverse arena yet. The winner will be awarded all of the state’s 57 delegates…

The younger Bush described both Romney and Gingrich as “credible” candidates in a November contest with President Barack Obama. “I intend to help whoever wins the nomination,” the former governor said…

He also says Romney should disclose his income tax records during the Florida contest, calling Romney’s riches “a wonderful success story.”

Bush is going to spin this as having been his position all along but the rumors that he’d endorse Mitt have been circulating for weeks. (His dad endorsed Romney a few weeks ago, remember.) The fact that he’s declaring neutrality on the same night that Gingrich swamped Romney in South Carolina is a terrible signal for Mitt.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 30 31 32

I don’t really like Newt but Mitt is too weak to take on Obama. He changes his mind with the wind and is the worst kind of politician.

Newt is a annoying blowhard. yeah he talks a good game but he has so much baggage and says the stupidest things sometimes, Obama and his media shills are going to have a field day with him.

Both of them are establishment hacks

rightConcept on January 22, 2012 at 10:34 AM

Hi Canopfor! I am sorry to hear that news. It was such a shame that his career ended the way it did.

JonBGood on January 22, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Even bigger shame he looked the other way and more kids got raped.

LevinFan on January 22, 2012 at 10:34 AM

I see a bigger margin of win for Obama than in 08 with a Newt candidacy. Much bigger.

Rational Thought on January 22, 2012 at 10:14 A

I see landslide for Obama and a democrat House and Senate if Newt is the nominee.

fight like a girl on January 22, 2012 at 10:35 AM

The problem for Mitt and Romneycare is that at its core, it is anti-liberty and antithetical to Republican philosophy. How do you defend that?

And many Baystaters would like to get rid of Romneycare and Romney. ;-)

Here’s why: The impact of Romneycare

An analysis of Romneycare by Suffolk University’s Beacon Hill Institute found that, on average, Romneycare:

•    cost the Bay State 18,313 jobs;

•    drove up total health insurance costs in Massachusetts by $4.311 billion;

•    slowed the growth of disposable income per person by $376; and

•    reduced investment in Massachusetts by $25.06 million.

In addition:

“the state’s health-care costs have been heavily subsidized by billions of dollars in federal aid through a Medicaid waiver program.”

Who do you think has to pay for those subsidized costs after the federal money runs out?

JonBGood on January 22, 2012 at 10:27 AM

Very well said. Saved this once to my archives.

These reasons alone should be enough to pick Newt over Mittens.

LevinFan on January 22, 2012 at 10:37 AM

From the WSJ, the delegate count and vote totals:
http://projects.wsj.com/campaign2012/delegates

txmomof6 on January 22, 2012 at 10:38 AM

The establishment is having a true meltdown. It has been worth the wait too.

mike_NC9 on January 22, 2012 at 10:40 AM

Only 4% of the primary vote in S. Carolina was attributed to Democrats in the exit poll.

JonBGood on January 22, 2012 at 10:42 AM

cane_loader on January 22, 2012 at 10:24 AM

Are y’all talking primary? Newt can’t win Virginia because he’s not on the ballot.

Cindy Munford on January 22, 2012 at 10:43 AM

Reading a lot of these comments, especially those coming from other Repubs, is really, really, sad to me.

What happened to us? What happened to our backbone? Our balls? Were we so crushed, so dispirited, by losing the Congress in 2006 and to Obama in 2008, that we’ve given up any hope of winning an election the “old fashioned” way? ie, based on a Conservative message and ideals?

So Newt is unelectable? Compared to whom? You guys still remember George W. Bush, right? You know, the drunk driver who doesn’t even have the vocabulary of a 11th grader and can’t enunciate his way out of a paper bag? Oh, he won TWO elections by the way. And one of them quite convincingly. Now we have Newt, who is more conservative than Bush, and immeasurably more intelligent and eloquent, but HE is the one who is completely unelectable?

What happened to us? Why are people saying that the only chance we have of winning another election is with a RINO? That from now on only fake, moderate Republicans have any chance to become president? Is this how people truly believe? If so, why not just dissolve the party now? What is the point of continuing?

tkyang99 on January 22, 2012 at 10:44 AM

From the WSJ, the delegate count and vote totals:
http://projects.wsj.com/campaign2012/delegates

txmomof6 on January 22, 2012 at 10:38 AM

Thanks for the link. I’m still feeling good about last night, but it’s a reminder there’s alot of work to be done.

It could’ve been a disaster though. Before Newt’s great comeback, imagine if Mittens had over 50 delegates and the next in line was Santorum with 14 or so.

Nice to see the Establishment hacks squirm.

LevinFan on January 22, 2012 at 10:44 AM

Even bigger shame he looked the other way and more kids got raped.

LevinFan on January 22, 2012 at 10:34 AM

I was shocked when I found that out. I had always greatly admired him.

JonBGood on January 22, 2012 at 10:45 AM

I noticed there is no mention of how many Democrats voted in the primary, I wonder if the information was available since it is an open primary. I know the Democrats won’t have a primary on the presidential level but I wonder if voting in this one would have any impact of their ability to vote on primaries for other offices later?

Cindy Munford on January 22, 2012 at 10:31 AM

Vote by party ID

Democrat 4%
Republican 71%
Independent 25%

Flora Duh on January 22, 2012 at 10:45 AM

I’ll play the electability game. The thing you moderates keep forgetting is that the BASE will not be motivated to vote/support Mittens. It was the same thing in 2008, that’s why we lost southern states like NC, VA, and Fl.

Swing states Mittens could win: Florida, Michigan, Nevada, NH

Swing states Newt could win: Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, NC, Ohio, Va. There’s 7 states for Newt, 4 for Mittens. Newt would have a decent shot in NH too.

LevinFan on January 22, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Of the swing states you say Newt “could” win, only one — Virginia — is even likely. Most of the rest are not even up for grabs with Newt as the candidate. It’s a pipe dream. He is unelectable in Colorado. Unelectable in Nevada and New Mexico. Unelectable in Ohio. Florida? Maybe, but it would be a nail-biter. A path for Newt just doesn’t exist. Id like to see some new swing state polls with Newt rising in the race, but I really believe they’ll show an electoral slaughter in the making. I hope we get some this week to see. And if it’s going to be Newt, I hope I’m wrong.

Rational Thought on January 22, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Cindy Munford on January 22, 2012 at 10:43 AM

I believe the GOP can put Newt on the ballot in VA if they want to. I could be wrong. Would Virginia Newt supporters not have an argument after the trouncing in SC?

mike_NC9 on January 22, 2012 at 10:46 AM

thank you, Sarah, for the nudge you gave).

Burke on January 22, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Been waiting for someone to mention this – I believe that her “offhand” endorsement still carries a lot of weight, I know it does with me. She’s the only politican I actually trust. She was a kingmaker in 2010, intersting to she what she’ll be up to this round, likely trying to change the House and Senate.

HoosierHawk on January 22, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Flora Duh on January 22, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Thanks, good for them, I assume they could have made a bigger impact had they wanted to.

Cindy Munford on January 22, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Good points. You never know. Didn’t realize that Santa Fe was such a cesspool, I knew Bill Richardson was Governor….

[snip]

LevinFan on January 22, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Well, Santa Fe’s not a cesspool in the same way as San Francisco; it’s a clean kind of cesspool. There’s a mix of ’60s hippie liberalism and mystic crystalism there that is very intolerant of conservative thought. Being as conservative in Santa Fe/Taos is to be gently pitied and ignored.

As far as the rest of the state, the whole darn state’s on the dole – the Indians and everyone else. The ranchers are conservative, but there’re not enough of them.

Put that together, and the GOP will have a very hard time ever winning New Mexico.

cane_loader on January 22, 2012 at 10:47 AM

You guys still remember George W. Bush, right? You know, the drunk driver who doesn’t even have the vocabulary of a 11th grader and can’t enunciate his way out of a paper bag?

Lemme guess: You’re a “true conservative.” Yeah. Sure ya are.

Rational Thought on January 22, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Reading a lot of these comments, especially those coming from other Repubs, is really, really, sad to me.

What happened to us? What happened to our backbone? Our balls? Were we so crushed, so dispirited, by losing the Congress in 2006 and to Obama in 2008, that we’ve given up any hope of winning an election the “old fashioned” way? ie, based on a Conservative message and ideals?

So Newt is unelectable? Compared to whom? You guys still remember George W. Bush, right? You know, the drunk driver who doesn’t even have the vocabulary of a 11th grader and can’t enunciate his way out of a paper bag? Oh, he won TWO elections by the way. And one of them quite convincingly. Now we have Newt, who is more conservative than Bush, and immeasurably more intelligent and eloquent, but HE is the one who is completely unelectable?

What happened to us? Why are people saying that the only chance we have of winning another election is with a RINO? That from now on only fake, moderate Republicans have any chance to become president? Is this how people truly believe? If so, why not just dissolve the party now? What is the point of continuing?

tkyang99 on January 22, 2012 at 10:44 AM

Well said. The truth is Newt is pretty close to being a RINO himself with many questionable positions in the last 10 years. Still much better than Mittens though.

And that’s a good point, Newt is more conservative than Bush and can obviously articulate conservative ideals much better.

DOn’t get too discouraged though. There’s alot of Mittbots here, but they aren’t all the representative of conservatives (b/c they’re weak moderates).

I’m upset myself that I may have to settle for Newt but he’s better than W and a bazillion times better than Maobama so things are looking up!

LevinFan on January 22, 2012 at 10:48 AM

I see a bigger margin of win for Obama than in 08 with a Newt candidacy. Much bigger.

Rational Thought on January 22, 2012 at 10:14 A

I see landslide for Obama and a democrat House and Senate if Newt is the nominee.

fight like a girl on January 22, 2012 at 10:35 AM

I think you both need to see an optometrist.

bgibbs1000 on January 22, 2012 at 10:49 AM

For those who want to put this on Palin, what do you think would have happened if she had told people to vote for Santorum in SC? …. Thought so.

ElectricPhase on January 22, 2012 at 10:52 AM

bgibbs1000 on January 22, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Zing!

Flora Duh on January 22, 2012 at 10:52 AM

KOOLAID2 on January 22, 2012 at 10:03 AM
Your use of italics, bolds and quote blocks remains inspiring. Which meds are you on again?

libfreeordie on January 22, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Different strokes for different folks!
(Didn’t come here to be home-schooled azzhole!)

KOOLAID2 on January 22, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Of the swing states you say Newt “could” win, only one — Virginia — is even likely. Most of the rest are not even up for grabs with Newt as the candidate. It’s a pipe dream. He is unelectable in Colorado. Unelectable in Nevada and New Mexico. Unelectable in Ohio. Florida? Maybe, but it would be a nail-biter. A path for Newt just doesn’t exist. Id like to see some new swing state polls with Newt rising in the race, but I really believe they’ll show an electoral slaughter in the making. I hope we get some this week to see. And if it’s going to be Newt, I hope I’m wrong.

Rational Thought on January 22, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Thanks for ignoring my premise: that the BASE will not support Mittens. They didn’t with McCain, why would they do so now?? If Newt’s unelectable due to the liberals in Aspen, then so is Mittens. Same thing for New Mexico.

You’re dead wrong on Nevada. Harry Reid would’ve lost if it werent’ for massive voter fraud. Umemployment is sky high and Vegas has had enough.

Ohio? What are you smoking? Kasich is the governor and it’s all about jobs. No one can communicate this better than Newt.

The only way to lose to Maobama is to be put up the biggest wimp possible, just like we did in 2008. Moderates like yourself just never learn. Maybe someday you’ll see the light, but I doubt it.

Answer this, if Newt’s the nominee will you vote for him?

LevinFan on January 22, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Only 4% of the primary vote in S. Carolina was attributed to Democrats in the exit poll.

JonBGood on January 22, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Just goes to show what happens to RuPaul when less liberals vote!

ANother thing to be really happy about today, Rumpelstiltskin is all but finished!!

LevinFan on January 22, 2012 at 10:55 AM

No way Newt wins N.M. or Nevada with his anti-latino statements

I’m scratching my head here. Newt was the only candidate who proposed a possible path to legalization for illegals, “amnesty” some of you like to call it.

Why do you think he got the endorsement of the Hispanic Republicans?

tkyang99 on January 22, 2012 at 10:57 AM

I think you both need to see an optometrist.

bgibbs1000 on January 22, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Based on what? This?

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/america-hates-newt-gingrich/326161

CW on January 22, 2012 at 10:58 AM

bgibbs1000 on January 22, 2012 at 10:49 AM

LOL!

Perhaps they are missing some historical analysis:

So, the current Republican leadership fears the man who helped the GOP recapture the House for the first time in 40 years?

So, the current Republican leadership fears the man, whose Tea Party allies helped recapture the House in 2010, will cause the GOP to lose the House in November?

It’s beginning to look like a total Establishment and Mitt supporter meltdown in progress. ;-)

What has Mitt ever done for the GOP except leave the Republican party in disarray in Massachusetts? ;-)

JonBGood on January 22, 2012 at 10:59 AM

I’m upset myself that I may have to settle for Newt but he’s better than W and a bazillion times better than Maobama so things are looking up!

LevinFan on January 22, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Newt does have a life-long history of conservative work which has resulted in some significant conservative achievements: 4 balanced budgets, welfare reform, causing the resignation of a powerful Democratic House speaker, and helping recapture the House for the GOP after a long 40 year drought.

After Newt left, just think about what happened: no conservative wins at all.

JonBGood on January 22, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Perhaps they are missing some historical analysis:

So, the current Republican leadership fears the man who helped the GOP recapture the House for the first time in 40 years?

So, the current Republican leadership fears the man, whose Tea Party allies helped recapture the House in 2010, will cause the GOP to lose the House in November?

It’s beginning to look like a total Establishment and Mitt supporter meltdown in progress. ;-)

What has Mitt ever done for the GOP except leave the Republican party in disarray in Massachusetts? ;-)

JonBGood on January 22, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Excellent points all. Now Newt has to be ready for the all out gutter assault that will come from the entire establishment class.

bgibbs1000 on January 22, 2012 at 11:06 AM

America won’t “hate” Gingrich as they get to know him better. People are impressed by intelligent candidates, and once they get a better look at him, I think those numbers will change.

Remember that right now, for 80% of the public, the only images they have are:

1. A name that sounds both like a lizard and like The Grinch, and so evokes subliminal repulsion.

2. Vague recollections that he was a fat, evil, unethical GOP hog.

3. Something about being such a evil guy that he shut down the government so that old people would eat cat food because he really wanted to see old people eat cat food.

One advantage Newt has is that these images (aside from his name, of course, but it’s too late to change it to Prince NotMitt Cool-J) are old and cartoonish due to their age. Newt actually has a chance, with the majority of voters, especially those under 40, to reintroduce himself.

Once people get a better look at Newt now, if he continues being as eloquent as he has, I say he gets a second act. Americans love that.

cane_loader on January 22, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Cindy Munford on January 22, 2012 at 10:31 AM
Vote by party ID

Democrat 4%
Republican 71%
Independent 25%

Flora Duh on January 22, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Thanks Duh!
I thought the Democrats, as in the past since they had nothing to do…would make more trouble in these open primaries. Guess they are the only ones, that don’t want to help JugEars this fall.

KOOLAID2 on January 22, 2012 at 11:08 AM

“the state’s health-care costs have been heavily subsidized by billions of dollars in federal aid through a Medicaid waiver program.”

Who do you think has to pay for those subsidized costs after the federal money runs out?

JonBGood on January 22, 2012 at 10:27 AM

A big chunk of Federal money comes from the DSH waiver & re-routing of money.
DSH are Disproportionate Share Hospitals – basically County hospitals and free clinics- they care for a disproportionate share of indigent clients. Romney’s waiver diverts the money that should have gone to the Charity Hospitals and Community Health Centers and gives it instead to the general pool of money to pay for Romneycare & then to the insurance companies.
Clients of CHC’s are not well known for getting insurance or even if they have it they don’t know about it & don’t present it when using a CHC.

batterup on January 22, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Based on what? This?

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/america-hates-newt-gingrich/326161

Yes, because we all know everyone out there has already decided exactly who they’re gonna vote for and their minds can’t be changed….

I’m just gonna say it: you poll-tards are part of the problem and what is wrong with our political system. Stop reading inTrade. Go out and talk to people in the real world.

tkyang99 on January 22, 2012 at 11:10 AM

I think you both need to see an optometrist.

bgibbs1000 on January 22, 2012 at 10:49 AM
Based on what? This?

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/america-hates-newt-gingrich/326161

CW on January 22, 2012 at 10:58 AM

So good to know that you are one of those people who base their vote on how the general population feels and polls at any given moment. I fully expect you to jump on the Gingrich bandwagon should his favorability rise.

bgibbs1000 on January 22, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Exactly. Mitt won’t fight. And when he tries, he looks awful doing it. Mitt constantly looks like the spoiled rich kid who’s frustrated because things aren’t going his way. … Romney doesn’t pass the “he’s one of us” test.

BuckeyeSam on January 22, 2012 at 5:01 AM

Here in California, Meg Whitman looked like a shoo-in. She had an enormous amount of cash she was willing to spend. She had great experience running a company. Best of all, she was a moderate, and we in California are supposed to love moderates. But she lost in a landslide in 2010 when conservatives were winning everywhere else. Why did she lose? I can tell you, because I was one of the voters, and I didn’t like her. I would have talked up and contributed to someone who could inspire me. So now we have Jerry Brown whose solution to our state’s financial crisis was to take away free cell phones from government workers, move full-speed ahead towards the bullet train and propose higher taxes on everyone. I’m not going to go through that with Mitt. He cannot win because he’s a milquetoast, sputtering, finger-in-the-wind moderate who won’t bring out voters like Newt did in S. Carolina.

Burke on January 22, 2012 at 11:14 AM

Continue the hate Newt strategy, it working so well.

Cindy Munford on January 22, 2012 at 11:15 AM

Nikki Haley sure crapped in her hat. She should have endorsed Newt or stayed neutral. Big mistake, Haley. Conservative South Carolinians who got you elected will not forget. Count on it. The fact that the three largest county Republican Parties in the state have censored Lindsay Graham and has told him he is not welcome to attend any of their sponsored events, should have told her that endoesing Mittens would be a bad idea.

Jeb really wanted to endorse Mittens, but is playing both sides against the middle. I suspect Rubio will do the same.

they lie on January 22, 2012 at 9:47 AM

What happened with Lindsay Graham? What did he do to tick them
off? (other than the rino scum he is) – somehow I missed this -
more details please.

Amjean on January 22, 2012 at 11:15 AM

CW on January 22, 2012 at 10:58 AM

And the polls from the same time frame have Mitt beating Newt by double digits.

BallisticBob on January 22, 2012 at 11:19 AM

“And, has thou slain the Jabberwock?
Come to my arms, my beamish boy!
O frabjous day! Callooh! Callay!’
He chortled in his joy.

SurferDoc on January 22, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Nikki Haley sure crapped in her hat. She should have endorsed Newt or stayed neutral. Big mistake, Haley. Conservative South Carolinians who got you elected will not forget. Count on it. The fact that the three largest county Republican Parties in the state have censored Lindsay Graham and has told him he is not welcome to attend any of their sponsored events, should have told her that endoesing Mittens would be a bad idea.

Jeb really wanted to endorse Mittens, but is playing both sides against the middle. I suspect Rubio will do the same.

they lie on January 22, 2012 at 9:47 AM

What happened with Lindsay Graham? What did he do to tick them
off? (other than the rino scum he is) – somehow I missed this -
more details please.

Amjean on January 22, 2012 at 11:15 AM

Never forget conservatives. Nikki Haley needs to be primaried for this!!!

We got her elected and we will get her fired!!

LevinFan on January 22, 2012 at 11:22 AM

LevinFan on January 22, 2012 at 11:22 AM

If she does an overall good job as governor I wouldn’t let this incident turn me against her. And I am 100% against any elected officials endorsing anyone. I would judge her on the totality of her work, not for trying to cover her bases while returning a favor.

Cindy Munford on January 22, 2012 at 11:28 AM

If she does an overall good job as governor I wouldn’t let this incident turn me against her. And I am 100% against any elected officials endorsing anyone. I would judge her on the totality of her work, not for trying to cover her bases while returning a favor.

Cindy Munford on January 22, 2012 at 11:28 AM

First I’ve heard she isn’t doing all that great of a job as governor.

Secondly, I strongly disagree. Haley used her position to try to push for the biggest moderate squish out there. Pushing for more of the same big gov’t BS, the last thing we need. The Tea party got her elected, she should’ve been paying us back, not stabbing us in the back.

LevinFan on January 22, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Cindy Munford on January 22, 2012 at 10:31 AM
Vote by party ID

Democrat 4%
Republican 71%
Independent 25%

Flora Duh on January 22, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Thanks Duh!
I thought the Democrats, as in the past since they had nothing to do…would make more trouble in these open primaries. Guess they are the only ones, that don’t want to help JugEars this fall.

KOOLAID2 on January 22, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Honestly, I think Democrats would create more mischief if they could by voting for any Huntsmans still in the race, but there are none left. They absolutely despise Gingrich because he speaks “truth to power” against the lazy disadvantaged and the corrupt media. On the other hand, they hate Romney because of his greedy history in predator-capitalism. To liberals, these two are equally unacceptable. It’s really very entertaining to watch Democrats who would love to throw the election find themselves in such a quandary.

Burke on January 22, 2012 at 11:42 AM

LevinFan on January 22, 2012 at 11:34 AM

I don’t live in S.C. so I can commit on her job but let’s see if she got the message. Gov. Bush seems to have.

Cindy Munford on January 22, 2012 at 11:42 AM

“can commit” would be “can’t comment” to normal people. Seriously I have a library card and everything.

Cindy Munford on January 22, 2012 at 11:50 AM

I don’t live in S.C. so I can commit on her job but let’s see if she got the message. Gov. Bush seems to have.

Cindy Munford on January 22, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Nikki is doing fine. SC is not waiting for Obama to come save them, they’re digging out just like we are in NC. Looking forward to giving Obama and Bev Purdue the boot in November. I still love Nikki and I think she did get the message. Lindsay Graham was just Slay the Nation and he apparently gets it.

mike_NC9 on January 22, 2012 at 11:50 AM

How did Nikki get the message?

She endorsed Mittens. What conservative would support a Progressive RINO?

Personally, it made me sick during the debates everytime they showed her face.

She’s a sellout who if she had her way Mittens would’ve walked away with the nomination, Tea Party be damned!

LevinFan on January 22, 2012 at 11:56 AM

mike_NC9 on January 22, 2012 at 11:50 AM

Good, I like her and hope she is incredibly successful. Endorsements are meaningless to me, I have my very own mind that I can make up all by myself.

Cindy Munford on January 22, 2012 at 11:59 AM

I would judge [Gov. Nikki Haley] on the totality of her work, not for trying to cover her bases while returning a favor.

Cindy Munford on January 22, 2012 at 11:28 AM

Cindy’s right on this, LevinFan. Romney gave strong help to Nikki when she was running in 2010 even while the SC Republican establishment was smearing her. At the time, Nikki made it clear that she owed Romney a favor, and during this primary, she paid it by endorsing him. It’s very similar to Palin supporting McCain in his Arizona race.

Also, keep in mind that Gingrich is not exactly a Reagan or Sarah Palin.

I’m not a huge fan of Nikki because she didn’t stand up for Palin after Tuscon, but I don’t think supporting Romney by itself is going to get her primaried.

Burke on January 22, 2012 at 12:05 PM

Cindy’s right on this, LevinFan. Romney gave strong help to Nikki when she was running in 2010 even while the SC Republican establishment was smearing her. At the time, Nikki made it clear that she owed Romney a favor, and during this primary, she paid it by endorsing him. It’s very similar to Palin supporting McCain in his Arizona race.

Also, keep in mind that Gingrich is not exactly a Reagan or Sarah Palin.

I’m not a huge fan of Nikki because she didn’t stand up for Palin after Tuscon, but I don’t think supporting Romney by itself is going to get her primaried.

Burke on January 22, 2012 at 12:05 PM

Sorry Burke, both you and Cindy are wrong on this.

I would argue that the Tea Party gave Haley more support than Mittens did. When she had to pick, she chose the RINO over the Tea Party.

Whatever happened to sticking to your principles. If you really believe in limited gov’t, then how does Mr. Romneycare expose that?

And Palin was wrong too in endorsing McCain. One of the things I dislike most about her.

The country is at stake and Haley supported the biggest RINO in the room. She stabbed the Tea Party in the back.

I’ll never forgive her for it.

LevinFan on January 22, 2012 at 12:19 PM

Jeb Bush staying neutral! Oh yes because he knows his endorsement could sink his pic. The times they are a changin!!

sonnyspats1 on January 22, 2012 at 12:19 PM

I’ll never forgive her for it.

LevinFan on January 22, 2012 at 12:19 PM

That’s fine, if you are a constituent then she needs to listen to you. I will tell you that when the rumors were swirling the Rubio was going to endorse, I emailed him so quick it would make your head swim. As someone who’s career was almost squelched by establishment endorsements he probably is a little more receptive to the advice.

Cindy Munford on January 22, 2012 at 12:24 PM

I see a bigger margin of win for Obama than in 08 with a Newt candidacy. Much bigger.

Rational Thought on January 22, 2012 at 10:14 A

I see landslide for Obama and a democrat House and Senate if Newt is the nominee.

fight like a girl on January 22, 2012 at 10:35 AM

Based on what? The underrated Unicorn Vote? The yet to be released Skittles and Rainbow Index?

I see desperate Liberals….and an awakening electorate. There is no doubt that, should The One manage to be re-elected that he would have to deal with a GOP majority in both houses. Damn, that’d be fun to watch!!!

Anti_anti on January 22, 2012 at 12:31 PM

The country is at stake and Haley supported the biggest RINO in the room. She stabbed the Tea Party in the back.

I’ll never forgive her for it.

LevinFan on January 22, 2012 at 12:19 PM

Are you ever going to forgive Palin for backing McCain? Because I have, much though I despise McCain. Just as I’ve forgiven Palin for not running even though her country desperately needs her.

Maybe it’s because I live in California where Jerry Brown is governor and Barbara Boxer was just reelected to another six-year term. A generally conservative governor whose only fault was to endorse the guy who made it possible for her to win her own election (with money and open support) just doesn’t seem so bad to me.

Burke on January 22, 2012 at 12:36 PM

The in-fighting is animated, but useless. The analysis is simple.

Speaker Gingrich has demonstrated stronger anti-Obama rhetoric during the last four months than any other candidate. Since this is, without question, the anti-Obama campaign for those on the Right, it isn’t hard to understand the growth in popularity for the one candidate to clearly state the ways in which Obama has failed, has worse than failed, and what can be done about it. Other than Santorum, none of the rest have even tried. Romney doesn’t dare try, because he can’t do it convincingly. So Newt gains momentum. Q.E.D.

Freelancer on January 22, 2012 at 12:37 PM

Now that I’m a newbie in supporting Newt, do I call myself a “Ginger”?

Typicalwhitewoman on January 22, 2012 at 1:18 PM

Typicalwhitewoman on January 22, 2012 at 1:18 PM

I don’t know? What’s your hair color?

cozmo on January 22, 2012 at 1:20 PM

Can we please, please have just another 842 comments on this thread? That would bring the total up to 4000 which would be awesome.

Burke on January 22, 2012 at 1:34 PM

Typicalwhitewoman on January 22, 2012 at 1:18 PM
I don’t know? What’s your hair color?

cozmo on January 22, 2012 at 1:20 PM

Too funny, cozmo!!!!

My husband has been trying to talk me into going red, but he would hate the expense of “upkeep” and I know he would want matching carpet!

Been having cargasms all weekend.
Watching Barret-Jackson auction.
I think I need a ’57 DeSoto convertible “Adventurer”, and would look great in it as a redhead!

Typicalwhitewoman on January 22, 2012 at 1:36 PM

Just don’t go with “Mary Ann”. Bad things could happen.

cozmo on January 22, 2012 at 1:38 PM

Burke on January 22, 2012 at 1:34 PM

It would be pretty cool.

Cindy Munford on January 22, 2012 at 1:42 PM

This Newt win has conjured up a huge Mittstorm. The Romney supporters are scared Mittless and they are Mitting in their pants.

///

SparkPlug on January 22, 2012 at 1:43 PM

It would be cool, but even if we say how cool it would be forty or fifty times, it wouldn’t get us to 4000, so I guess it’s time to move to another thread.

Maybe the upcoming Florida thread next week when Newt wins by another landslide–that should get us into the ballpark.

Burke on January 22, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Gingrich would of done the bailouts. Anyone care to explain to me how he is Mr. Tea Party?

V-rod on January 22, 2012 at 2:29 PM

Gingrich would of done the bailouts. Anyone care to explain to me how he is Mr. Tea Party?

V-rod on January 22, 2012 at 2:29 PM

Sure, V-rod. I’ll help you out. First of all, Gingrich can explain capitalism and conservative principles without stammering and equivocating; Mitt cannot. Tea Partiers want someone who doesn’t just mumble when he’s asked a direct question.

Also, Gingrich led the House to victory back in the 80s and moved the nation by means of Congress into a more conservative direction with welfare reform and less spending. In contrast, Mitt created Romneycare and still brags about it.

That’s it in a nutshell. Now do you understand us Tea Partiers? No, I didn’t think so. Because if you don’t get us by now, you’re not going to ever get us.

Burke on January 22, 2012 at 2:45 PM

This Newt win has conjured up a huge Mittstorm. The Romney supporters are scared Mittless and they are Mitting in their pants.

///

SparkPlug on January 22, 2012 at 1:43 PM

Ha ha, that was funny!

kg598301 on January 22, 2012 at 4:49 PM

ElectricPhase on January 22, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Romeny would have come in 3rd and Santorum would have come in second.

RedLizard64 on January 22, 2012 at 6:58 PM

I think you both need to see an optometrist.
gibbs1000 on January 22, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Based on what? This?

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/america-hates-newt-gingrich/326161

CW on January 22, 2012 at 10:58 AM

CLAP….CLAP…..CLAP…… CLAP

Those “people” know what’s going on. Don’t they??? /sarc

mr_west on January 22, 2012 at 11:45 PM

gibbs1000, Funny and on your side.

CW….. ahhhh no…

/ just to clarify.

mr_west on January 22, 2012 at 11:47 PM

That’s it in a nutshell. Now do you understand us Tea Partiers? No, I didn’t think so. Because if you don’t get us by now, you’re not going to ever get us.

Burke on January 22, 2012 at 2:45 PM

The Tea Party formed before Obama was elected to protest the bailouts.

If what you stated is all the Tea Party stands for, then I don’t want to “get” it.

V-rod on January 23, 2012 at 5:13 AM

Never forget conservatives. Nikki Haley needs to be primaried for this!!!

We got her elected and we will get her fired!!

LevinFan on January 22, 2012 at 11:22 AM

We need to do this every time one of them turns their back on the people that got them elected. They need to go.

wi farmgirl on January 23, 2012 at 6:46 AM

That’s fine, if you are a constituent then she needs to listen to you. I will tell you that when the rumors were swirling the Rubio was going to endorse, I emailed him so quick it would make your head swim. As someone who’s career was almost squelched by establishment endorsements he probably is a little more receptive to the advice.

Cindy Munford on January 22, 2012 at 12:24 PM

Thank you for taking the time to email him. We all need to do those things, take the time to make our voices heard.

wi farmgirl on January 23, 2012 at 6:50 AM

Comment pages: 1 30 31 32