Rasmussen: Gingrich 33/31 over Romney in SC

posted at 12:30 pm on January 19, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

How much did Monday’s debate move the needle in South Carolina?  This much, and it’s not as much at the expense of Mitt Romney as it is the rest of the field:

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has now surged ahead of Mitt Romney in the final Rasmussen Reports survey of the South Carolina Republican Primary race with the vote just two days away.

The latest telephone survey of Likely GOP Primary Voters in the state finds Gingrich with 33% support to Romney’s 31%. Two days ago, before the last debate, it was Romney by 14 percentage points.

Texas Congressman Ron Paul now runs third with 15% of the vote, followed by former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum at 11%. Paul’s support is steady while Santorum’s support has dropped five points since Monday.  At the beginning of the month, just after Santorum’s strong showing in the Iowa caucuses, he ran second to Romney with 24% of the vote.

Rick Perry’s support came in at 2% in the survey taken yesterday, before his withdrawal today.  Perry endorsed Gingrich on the way out of the race, but that seems to have been more of an acknowledgment than a gift.

A week ago, Romney had a 7-point lead, and two days ago it was 14 points in the Rasmussen series.  This represents a huge shift, perhaps not too surprising after Gingrich’s splendid debate performance on Monday.  However, with his ex-wife dishing on his affair with his present wife today and tonight, Gingrich might have some difficulty holding onto this support.  His jump came among the “very conservative” bloc, which now favors Newt 42/22 over Romney while the “somewhat conservatives” edge towards Romney by three, 36/33.  Gingrich also cleaned up among evangelicals in this latest poll, 37/21, and got a little closer to Romney among women, now only trailing by nine, 27/36.  Most of these demos will not appreciate the dirty laundry airing at the moment in South Carolina, and if this is the first time that many of these voters have heard these stories (as contrasted to those of us who are immersed in politics), then Gingrich’s boomlet could be very short-lived.

The NBC/Marist poll taken Monday and Tuesday also shows momentum swinging to Gingrich, although with Romney still in the lead:

As the Republican presidential candidates crisscross the Palmetto State in the days leading up to Saturday’s South Carolina primary, Mitt Romney leads Newt Gingrich, 34% to 24%, among likely Republican primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate based on interviews conducted on Monday and Tuesday.

Debates matter.  Romney’s Monday lead of 15 percentage points over his closest competitor, Newt Gingrich, narrowed to 5 percentage points on Tuesday following Monday night’s debate.

Marist highlights the key findings, which have Romney leading Gingrich among Republicans by eight points, and thirteen points among independents (Paul comes in second, two points behind Romney).  Just as in the Rasmussen poll, self-identified “very conservative” voters go for Gingrich by double digits, 33/23 with Santorum getting 22% for a close third.  Tea Party support shifted in the two day poll from 35/27 Romney to 34/27 Gingrich for a 31/31 tie overall.  Evangelicals also flipped overnight, 36/22 for Romney on Monday and 37/22 Gingrich on Tuesday, while Santorum maintained third place at 19% and 18% respectively.

Again, if evangelicals and Tea Party supporters are hearing about the dirty laundry of Gingrich’s personal baggage for the first time, those numbers may flip again and leave Gingrich in position to finish behind Romney.  If this is old news in South Carolina, it won’t make much difference at all.  We may not have time to get good polling on that question before Saturday’s vote, either.


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Obama, his capos, which include the media, fear Newt more than the devil.

Oh, hey, me too, li’l cowboy, yet I support Gingrich without hedge or qualification because he’s the first movement conservative to have a shot since, well, since the Reagan era–Bush the elder, Dole, Bush the younger, and McCain, were not movement conservatives by any stretch of the imagination–and Willard “I lost Iowa but I won’t congratulate Santorum” Romney gave us RomneyCare which is functionally identical to ObamaCare so he’s disqualified in advance of any pretense to the conservative principles he says that he has but that his record of governance does not support.

casuist on January 19, 2012 at 1:18 PM

Romney now lost Iowa

No, Iowa has announced that if Romney didn’t have the most votes, then no one won. Iowa lost so many ballots, you know?

kunegetikos on January 19, 2012 at 1:18 PM

The 2008 McCain Anti-Romney playbook was starting to pick up steam and get noticed. Within 8 hours, the “Newt’s Ex-wife” crap gets dropped and wipes it out.

Coincidence?

portlandon on January 19, 2012 at 12:52 PM

Nope. The MSM and the Romney campaign (but I repeat myself) panicked when they saw the stream of positive news for Newt combined with the bad news for Romney. This is an attempt to check Newt’s momentum. Unfortunately for them, Newt will probably pick up a good chunk of the remaining Perry loyalists after the endorsement today.

Doomberg on January 19, 2012 at 1:19 PM

He asked for the divorce from the 2nd wife as she was diagnosed with M.S. Exactly like Romney….without the divorce and the serial adultery.

What a disgusting immoral pig.

He makes Bill Clinton seem moral by comparison.

Jailbreak on January 19, 2012 at 12:32 PM

But does he make Romney’s grandfather seem moral by comparison?

Portia46 on January 19, 2012 at 1:20 PM

Election over. This is not complicated.

matthew8787 on January 19, 2012 at 1:11 PM

I cannot understand why anyone would think differently. Yeah, Newts a good debater- better than Romney- but it won’t get him elected. He is completely disgusting to SO many people.

BettyRuth on January 19, 2012 at 1:20 PM

Likeable? Romney? This is the man whose numbers actually tank the more people know him. He only ekes out “wins” by mere pluralities or the narrowist of margins when he can portray himself as “generic Republican” not-Obama, which is not enough for most voters.

casuist on January 19, 2012 at 1:05 PM

I agree, but I was only making a comparison to Newt, who’s a major turnoff to independent voters.

Aizen on January 19, 2012 at 1:21 PM

Both of them are flip-flopping RINOs, but if we’re going with the lesser of two evils, I’d go with Newt, since at least he could mop the floor with Obama in a debate. Romney stutters and stammers too much.
Aizen on January 19, 2012 at 12:33 PM

Same here.

As for Drudge… I go there at least once a day. I don’t appreciate his shilling for his bud Romney though… He better be careful here… None of us like being manipulated and it’s so obvious with the Newt coverage…

CCRWM on January 19, 2012 at 1:23 PM

Oh, gee whiz kids. The never-done before, run the tables, historic Romney now lost Iowa and is barely holding on in SC? While outspending his competition 20 to one? And if Romney is the one “The One” fears, how come “The One’s” propoganda offices are getting rid of Gingrich?

Ja! Why is this never mentioned? Romney is outspending his rivals by orders of magnitude in return for what, precisely? In business terms, Romney’s ROI is in the negative as his rivals spend far, far less for whatever support they have been able to cobble together. If Willard had an actual base of support, whether regional, or ideological, this wouldn’t even be a contest, but he doesn’t. He can’t carry the one state he was once said to govern, a state that is non-contiguous with the GOP regional base anyway (A Romney nomination puts the entire South of the U.S. into play), and the 2 principle ideological formations of the GOP, Tea Partiers, and Social Conservatives, cannot get excited about the guy as he has nothing to offer them. Romney is a joke candidate.

casuist on January 19, 2012 at 1:24 PM

She hasn’t done that, by far.

Schadenfreude on January 19, 2012 at 1:14 PM

.
Sure. Keep telling yourself that, Harry. Indie America thinks the R party offerings are not worth taking a chance on. The media will help them with it. Unless another Reagan is out there……somewhere

FlaMurph on January 19, 2012 at 1:24 PM

Same here.

As for Drudge… I go there at least once a day. I don’t appreciate his shilling for his bud Romney though… He better be careful here… None of us like being manipulated and it’s so obvious with the Newt coverage…

CCRWM on January 19, 2012 at 1:23 PM

I read Drudge regularly, but I never forgot how he shilled for Obama during the primaries because of his absolute hatred of the Clintons.

Anyway, at this point, Ron Paul and Santorum would be stronger candidates against Obama and much better with turning out the base.

Aizen on January 19, 2012 at 1:26 PM

I guess race-baiting does work.

mythicknight on January 19, 2012 at 12:32 PM

Whats Juan Williams have to do with anything??

Mimzey on January 19, 2012 at 1:27 PM

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!

Jailbreak, swamp_yankee, and the other drones on suicide watch!

Dack Thrombosis on January 19, 2012 at 1:31 PM

He is completely disgusting to SO many people.

BettyRuth on January 19, 2012 at 1:20 PM

You should get out more.

Mimzey on January 19, 2012 at 1:31 PM

No, Iowa has announced that if Romney didn’t have the most votes, then no one won. Iowa lost so many ballots, you know?

kunegetikos on January 19, 2012 at 1:18 PM

No..thats not how math works.
He lost.

Mimzey on January 19, 2012 at 1:34 PM

Iowa doesn’t matter except when it does!

-Mittbots

Dack Thrombosis on January 19, 2012 at 1:37 PM

You should get out more.

Mimzey on January 19, 2012 at 1:31 PM

I get out plenty friend, and toads like Newt Gingrich disgust me.

BettyRuth on January 19, 2012 at 1:37 PM

Wow, you’re just so darn smart, aren’t ya lib?

Evangelicals for Mitt

Flora Duh on January 19, 2012 at 1:01 PM

Are you telling me Mitt will win the evangelicals in South Carolina?

liberal4life on January 19, 2012 at 1:40 PM

Wow, you’re just so darn smart, aren’t ya lib?

Evangelicals for Mitt

Flora Duh on January 19, 2012 at 1:01 PM

Are you telling me Mitt will win the evangelicals in South Carolina?

liberal4life on January 19, 2012 at 1:40 PM

I’m not presumptuous enough to say who “will win the evangelicals” in SC, or any other state.

What that link does prove is your blanket assertion that:

Well Evangelicals can’t support Romney since he is not a Christian..

liberal4life on January 19, 2012 at 12:53 PM

is wrong.

Flora Duh on January 19, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Over simplistic but Newt gave us the Contract with America, welfare reform and basically a Clinton who had to swing sharply to the right…

Romney gave us Romneycare which gave us Obamacare AND he gave Obama a big out on the GM and Chrysler scandals… What Obama and Co. did there was unethical and screwed the investors to hand the Cos to the Unions… That’s big and Romney blew that. Now Obama is using Romney’s words to defend his Solyndra scandal. Thanks a lot Romney.

Santorum isn’t catching on, Paul is crazy so were stuck with Newt who will at least attack Obama on his failed records and scandals… And the guy is quick on his feet. Remember we’re not dealing with an educated or sophisticated electorate anymore. It’s all entertainment and slick manipulative media now. Romney doesn’t stand a chance!

CCRWM on January 19, 2012 at 1:55 PM

A Dilemma for SC Bible Christians: The Adulterer, The Heretic, or The Traitor?

spiritof61 on January 19, 2012 at 1:56 PM

I get out plenty friend, and toads like Newt Gingrich disgust me.

BettyRuth on January 19, 2012 at 1:37 PM

Thats a non sequitur.
Maybe I should have said ..you should get out of yourself more.

Mimzey on January 19, 2012 at 1:56 PM

But seriously, folks: Newt/Santorum mends a lot of fences. Mitt fears that ticket. So would Obama.

spiritof61 on January 19, 2012 at 1:57 PM

Are I’m you telling me Mitt you we will win the evangelicals in South Carolina be taking away your dreams little girl.?

liberal4life on January 19, 2012 at 1:40 PM

View your dream and how it turns out here little girl. The good news your 0z is over. We are taking your dreams away.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&NR=1&v=X2CYjcQSUXg

Bmore on January 19, 2012 at 1:59 PM

Well Evangelicals can’t support Romney since he is not a Christian..

liberal4life on January 19, 2012 at 12:53 PM

You really aren’t very bright are you?

Written by a non-mormon Christian.

http://www.firstthings.com/article/2012/01/mormonism-obsessed-with-christ

Gunlock Bill on January 19, 2012 at 2:08 PM

A Dilemma for SC Bible Christians: The Adulterer, The Heretic, or The Traitor?
spiritof61 on January 19, 2012 at 1:56 PM

LOL pretty much!

At least two of them believe in the same Christ I believe in!

CCRWM on January 19, 2012 at 2:08 PM

Gunlock Bill on January 19, 2012 at 2:08 PM

S/he is a sockpuppet.

Schadenfreude on January 19, 2012 at 2:11 PM

CCRWM on January 19, 2012 at 2:08 PM

One of them is repentant, apparently. Just trying to be theologically helpful.

spiritof61 on January 19, 2012 at 2:12 PM

CCRWM on January 19, 2012 at 1:23 PM

This

—————–
FlaMurph on January 19, 2012 at 1:24 PM

Just be careful and don’t party prematurely. It might hurt you.

Schadenfreude on January 19, 2012 at 2:13 PM

Gunlock Bill on January 19, 2012 at 2:08 PM

S/he is a sockpuppet.

Schadenfreude on January 19, 2012 at 2:11 PM

Right!

Because we know that a vote for Romney is a vote for Satan.
http://www.votingforsatan.com/

Gunlock Bill on January 19, 2012 at 2:13 PM

One of them is repentant, apparently. Just trying to be theologically helpful.

spiritof61 on January 19, 2012 at 2:12 PM

God is great!

Schadenfreude on January 19, 2012 at 2:14 PM

Gunlock Bill on January 19, 2012 at 2:13 PM

Only fools believe that.

Schadenfreude on January 19, 2012 at 2:14 PM

South Carolina Republicans are so desperate to nominate the Non-Mormon Romney that we will cede the family values argument and nominate a buffoon so full of himself – that he is completely unaware of his own hypocrisy. Newt = the sure path of 4 more years of Obamanation. He won’t win over the independents, he won’t get the Reagan democrats – and he’ll leave permanent marks on the Republican party. Oh well, they’ve need a complete re-branding anyways.

joncoltonis on January 19, 2012 at 2:33 PM

joncoltonis on January 19, 2012 at 2:33 PM

That’s right, McCain Mitt is the only one who can win over independents and Reagan Democrats. McCain Mitt also embodies Family Values, which will energize conservatives to turn out in November. Besides, McCain Mitt has a solid conservative voting record yet is willing to “reach across the aisle” in the interests of the nation.

spiritof61 on January 19, 2012 at 2:40 PM

Unfortunately for them, Newt will probably pick up a good chunk of the remaining Perry loyalists after the endorsement today.

Doomberg on January 19, 2012 at 1:19 PM

True, but how much difference will 5 or 6 voters make in the grand scheme of things?

digitalhap on January 19, 2012 at 2:54 PM

How much does Newt pay you people to prop him on on here all day trying to convince us he’s not as repulsive as he appears?

Buttercup on January 19, 2012 at 2:54 PM

You really aren’t very bright are you?

Written by a non-mormon Christian.

http://www.firstthings.com/article/2012/01/mormonism-obsessed-with-christ

Gunlock Bill on January 19, 2012 at 2:08 PM

Oh, if you’re going to start that Sixpack, folks need to do some additional research here: http://www.utlm.org/

Seriously? IF Romney gets the nod, it’s you people who apparently think it’s a missionary opportunity who will keep everyone home. You cannot win the argument because there’s too much evidence out there, and some of it doesn’t even go back that many years.

What we NEED are non-religious based arguments to counter the basic truths that Mitt needs a teleprompter, that he has a sketchy record on a lot of Republican issues, and that he really understands conservative philosophy.

Portia46 on January 19, 2012 at 2:57 PM

Mitt will take SC by at least 10 points.

claudius on January 19, 2012 at 3:19 PM

New polls today show Romney over Obama 47-40 in Ohio. And Obama over Newt 47-45 in TEXAS. Anyone supporting Newt at this point must hate the country as much as your typical liberal. Newt is a liar and a disgrace.

royalblue on January 19, 2012 at 3:30 PM

MittNewt will take SC by at least 10 points.

claudius on January 19, 2012 at 3:19 PM

FIFY

Decoski on January 19, 2012 at 3:39 PM

royalblue on January 19, 2012 at 3:30 PM

Reagan was said to be “unelectable” and polls showed him losing badly to Carter just months before the election.

Decoski on January 19, 2012 at 3:43 PM

The absurdity of Newts surge is that he IS NOT a conservative alternative to Romney. He spent all last week pissing all over Capitalism. What a shame if he gets rewarded for that with a win in SC.

royalblue on January 19, 2012 at 3:57 PM

Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich share more in common than a “tie”. Both share the character trait of opportunistic flip flopping. Newt has been fickle forever, misrepresenting himself and his professional qualifications since seeking his first job teaching “history” in college, frequently missing classes, his first semester campaigning to replace the non-vacated school’s president, then to usurp the non-vacated chairmanship of the History Dept., then only to jump on the EPA empowering propaganda machine by establishing ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES for the school. He began an environmental institute for the school, in order to exercise graft by siphoning additional state funds from the institute as his own personal income illegally until the school president reprimanded him. Finally, semester after semester after his several unsuccessful campaigns for public office, he finally found his way to Washington in ’78 and the rest is flipper history. What goes around comes around, Newt’s shared values with Pelosi advertising Global Warming for PERSONAL PROFIT AT TAXPAYER EXPENSE.

There is no surprise that Mitt ‘n Newt represent what is being touted as “conservative” in the over-spending offensively interventionist camp within the Republican Party.

It’s all well and good to sing Tea Party anthems while begging for funding from voters whining “I’m Pelosi’s #1 Target,” like Bachmann whose TP caucus leadership has yet to protect our civil rights from abusive legislation that Obama signed in the dead of night, New Years Eve 2011. How appropriate, her anti-corruption hypocrisy retreated from having been exposed the liar with, “I stand for truth for the American People,” basing her lie on media propaganda instead of the FACTS from the UN Report that found NO ADVANCEMENT IN IRAN’S NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENT.

That Palin could be bribed so easily for a pseudo-endorsement (Cabinet) speaks volumes about her own opportunism, after flaunting herself in Tea Party banners while AGAIN ignoring the anti-corruption and lower taxes platform. So she feels she’s done her part fighting corruption, and shows again how she never really was “rogue” from McCain’s Establishment agenda, now supporting Newt who is VOID of either integrity or fidelity. Supporting Newt, feeling the need to be “relevant” – so much for exploiting spiritual epiphany.

maverick muse on January 19, 2012 at 4:24 PM

Flora Duh on January 19, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Yes. I am one of those evangelicals. I would not support Newt.

uhangtight on January 19, 2012 at 4:49 PM

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