South Carolina: Romney 33, Gingrich 23, Santorum 16, Paul 13

posted at 5:26 pm on January 18, 2012 by Allahpundit

I know you guys are sick of polls, but look on the “bright side”: If this one holds on Saturday, you won’t have to pay attention to another poll for four or five months.

Feel better?

A CNN/Time/ORC International poll indicates that 33% of likely South Carolina Republican primary voters say they are backing Romney, with 23% supporting Gingrich. The former Massachusetts governor’s 10 point advantage over the former House speaker is down from a 19 point lead two weeks ago. According to the survey, former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania is at 16%, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas is at 13%, and Texas Gov. Rick Perry stands at 6%…

“Gingrich appears to be the only candidate with momentum as the race in South Carolina enters the final few days,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “Support for Romney and Santorum appears to be slipping, and Paul and Perry seem flat. Gingrich, however, has gained ground and cut Romney’s lead in half since early January.”

“All of Gingrich’s increased support comes among tea party movement supporters, where he’s at 31% support, up ten points from early January,” adds Holland. “That suggests that Sarah Palin’s remarks urging South Carolina voters to choose Gingrich may have a receptive audience.”

Interesting! Except, as CNN notes, “Nearly all the interviews were conducted before the Palin’s Tuesday night remarks and before Monday night’s presidential debate.” The poll was taken from January 13 through the 17, which means if there is Newtmentum post-debate and post-Palin appearance on Hannity, very little of it is actually showing up in the numbers yet. Good news if you’re worried about the fact that Gingrich still trails by double digits in this snapshot, but not so good if you’re trying to draw any firm conclusions about the actual state of the race from this poll.

How thrilled is Newt by Palin’s endorsement last night, by the way? This thrilled:

“Gov. Palin is somebody who I think was a very good reform governor. She was extraordinarily effective negotiating with big oil. She did a good job in the state of Alaska. I think she’s a very articulate leader of the tea party conservative movement. I was honored and delighted last night when she said if she were in South Carolina, she’d vote for Newt Gingrich. I hope everybody who likes her decides she’s right. And I hope they vote for me.

“Certainly, she’s one of the people I’d call on for advice. I would ask her to consider taking a major role in the next administration if I’m president, but nothing has been discussed of any kind. And it wouldn’t be appropriate to discuss it at this time.

Earlier he told reporters that her backing is “a signal to every conservative that the one conservative vote that’s effective is to Newt Gingrich.” True enough, but that makes me wonder: Why exactly did she back Newt? Seems odd for a crusader against crony capitalism to opt for the guy who made seven figures from Freddie Mac as a “historian,” and it’s odd for a social conservative as esteemed as Palin to prefer the thrice-divorced Gingrich to the famously passionate pro-life crusader Santorum. Wasn’t Newt also the guy who scolded her back in 2009 when she endorsed Doug Hoffman instead of Gingrich’s candidate, Dede Scozzafava? If Palin’s making a simple electability calculation here, i.e. that Gingrich still has a shot in South Carolina of catching Romney whereas Santorum really doesn’t, then fair enough. But that’s a self-fulfilling prophesy in her case: If she made a strong push for Santorum over Gingrich, that could tilt tea-party votes his way and suddenly make him the last best hope of the Not Romney universe.

Newt told Wolf Blitzer earlier this afternoon that “I think by Saturday we’ll be ahead and depending on how many conservatives come home, we could be ahead by a pretty comfortable margin,” which will make a nice soundbite bookend next week with his comment last month that he’s likely to be the nominee. Exit question via Ross Douthat: Was Gingrich actually Romney’s greatest ally in this campaign? His Bain attacks succeeded in convincing conservatives to finally say something nice about Mitt, and his ability to suck up media oxygen from Santorum prevented Romney from having to face a challenge from a candidate with deep blue-collar and social-conservative appeal. Ah well. Too late now.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2 3

Obama and his capos, incl. the media, fear Newt more than the devil.

Schadenfreude on January 18, 2012 at 8:00 PM

You are nothing but a religious BIGOT. I don’t want someone like you on “our side.” Why don’t you go campaign for some loser like Rick Perry whose campaign tries to attract bottom-feeding bigots like you?

Mitt Romney will win the nomination and then will win the presidency. He will be an excellent president. Those are the facts.

bluegill on January 18, 2012 at 7:58 PM

How does bringing up Romney’s religious doctrine make me a bigot? It’s HIS religion.

Romney doesn’t stand a chance. SNL, daily show, colbert are all itching to lambaste him over that stuff.

tom daschle concerned on January 18, 2012 at 8:01 PM

Hi guys. Her ‘bombshell’ is just a rehash of her 2010 vanity fair article…

you know, the article that was covered on HOTAIR in… 2010.

nothing explosive. she was fairly nice given the divorce.

read for yourself:

http://www.esquire.com/features/newt-gingrich-0910

pamplonajack on January 18, 2012 at 7:53 PM

The only difference is she will be on TV, and I bet you she will cry too…when she describes how Newt was banging his current wife in the office, while married to her. You know, the holy one, ‘Callista and I’…what a joke.

Women all over this country will revile that man. Newt is an idiot. Only a narcissist and an egomaniac filled with hubris can go on TV, and claim to be the real conservative, and run for president, when he has this amount of baggage.

He is a fool, and the only bigger fool is the person who looks at all this, and then supports him. What a joke.

Chudi on January 18, 2012 at 8:02 PM

For arguments sake, let’s say you’re right. What if the other ex-wife that Newt cheated on decides that she has something to say?

The Count on January 18, 2012 at 8:00 PM

She was his teacher, much older, they have kids, and they wanted the divorce, no matter what else you read. Also, the cancer story is false. His daughter from that marriage defends him vehemently.

You need to find other dirt. Tell Obama to do the same.

Schadenfreude on January 18, 2012 at 8:03 PM

“Rumor has it that Newt’s ex-wife is going to trash him in an upcoming interview!”

- “Which one?”

“The one he cheated on.”

- “Which one?”

EddieC on January 18, 2012 at 8:03 PM

Obama and his capos, incl. the media, fear Newt more than the devil.

Schadenfreude on January 18, 2012 at 8:00 PM

Which is exactly why ABC is trying to protect him now while they and Jay Carney attack Romney’s wealth every day, huh? Lunacy…

The Count on January 18, 2012 at 8:03 PM

What a country!

Schadenfreude on January 18, 2012 at 8:03 PM

Unless the former Madame Gingrich has evidence of criminal activity or something, I am not sure what she would have to say other than, “He cheated on me!!!!”

And we know that already.

Sekhmet on January 18, 2012 at 8:03 PM

Romney doesn’t stand a chance. SNL, daily show, colbert are all itching to lambaste him over that stuff.

tom daschle concerned on January 18, 2012 at 8:01 PM

Oh well, I guess it’s time for Republicans to stop trying to win the presidency.

SLN, Daily Show and Colbert will lambaste whoever the GOP nominee is.

Most voters don’t give a darn about those guys though.

joana on January 18, 2012 at 8:04 PM

ABC (who just dumped an innacurate hit piece on Romneys taxes today) doesn’t want to air this interview with Newt’s Ex wife because they “don’t want to interfere with South Carolina”

http://drudgereport.com/flash2.htm

Who’s the MSM behind again Newtbotts?

1punchWill on January 18, 2012 at 7:48 PM

It’s a conspiracy!!1!1! They are really trying to help Romney!!1!1!

You see, they just want Newt to kill off the other ABR candidates first, then they will kill Newt off leaving nothing but Romney who will then go down in flaming defeat to their master Obama! It’s real, this is super serial!

/s

ray on January 18, 2012 at 8:04 PM

Which is exactly why ABC is trying to protect him now while they and Jay Carney attack Romney’s wealth every day, huh? Lunacy…

The Count on January 18, 2012 at 8:03 PM

Heh, you’re funny. They’re not protecting anyone. They let enough of the cat out of the bag to appear ‘ethical’. If you believe they are, you are fooled, royally.

Schadenfreude on January 18, 2012 at 8:04 PM

How does bringing up Romney’s religious doctrine make me a bigot? It’s HIS religion.

tom daschle concerned on January 18, 2012 at 8:01 PM

Listen, you’re bigoted trash. I want nothing to do with you, and I’m through responding to your idiocy. I hope you don’t vote for Romney because I don’t want you to be able to take credit later on for helping elect one of the best presidents in modern history.

bluegill on January 18, 2012 at 8:05 PM

You are nothing but a religious BIGOT.

I don’t want someone like you on “our side.”

I’m not on your side. I don’t support gun grabbing, big government liberals who enact ridiculous healthcare laws like Romneycare. He is all yours.

Why don’t you go campaign for some loser like Rick Perry whose campaign tries to attract bottom-feeding bigots like you?

That’s it romneybot, feel the hatred coursing thru your veins. give into it, let it take control.

Mitt Romney will win the nomination and then will win the presidency. He will be an excellent president. Those are the facts.

500:1 against

bluegill on January 18, 2012 at 7:58 PM

tom daschle concerned on January 18, 2012 at 8:05 PM

And we know that already.

Sekhmet on January 18, 2012 at 8:03 PM

Revelation “Newt is a lout”.

Newsflash – he found religion. I ‘love’ the left, so help me, but I ‘love’ the right more.

Schadenfreude on January 18, 2012 at 8:05 PM

ABC ethics and protecting Gingrich nothing—the interview is probably a lot of, “And he cheated on me, and lied to me! His WIFE! That Callista is a WHORE!!!!1!”

But by very obviously “withholding” it, we turn ourselves in knots wondering what devastating thing she has to say.

Sekhmet on January 18, 2012 at 8:06 PM

SNL, daily show, colbert are all itching to lambaste him over that stuff.

tom daschle concerned on January 18, 2012 at 8:01 PM

NEWS F’N FLASH: SNL, daily show, colbert would be itching to lambast ANY Republican candidate. To lambast him on his mormonism would be the least of any Republican’s problems.

haner on January 18, 2012 at 8:06 PM

Listen, you’re bigoted trash. I want nothing to do with you, and I’m through responding to your idiocy. I hope you don’t vote for Romney because I don’t want you to be able to take credit later on for helping elect one of the best presidents in modern history.

bluegill on January 18, 2012 at 8:05 PM

oh my goodness! LOL!

tom daschle concerned on January 18, 2012 at 8:07 PM

She was his teacher, much older, they have kids, and they wanted the divorce, no matter what else you read. Also, the cancer story is false. His daughter from that marriage defends him vehemently.

You need to find other dirt. Tell Obama to do the same.

Schadenfreude on January 18, 2012 at 8:03 PM

Ok, so I’m glad you lived in their house and know every embarrassing detail about their marriage that she won’t reveal no matter how much a network pays her. What Really worries me is what Romney’s ex might say about him. /

The Count on January 18, 2012 at 8:07 PM

[...] for helping elect one of the best presidents in modern history.

bluegill on January 18, 2012 at 8:05 PM

That’s a pretty low bar. :)

EddieC on January 18, 2012 at 8:07 PM

ABC ethics and protecting Gingrich nothing—the interview is probably a lot of, “And he cheated on me, and lied to me! His WIFE! That Callista is a WHORE!!!!1!”

But by very obviously “withholding” it, we turn ourselves in knots wondering what devastating thing she has to say.

Sekhmet on January 18, 2012 at 8:06 PM

All she has to say is “He beat me” and it’s game over.

Game over.

haner on January 18, 2012 at 8:07 PM

The Count on January 18, 2012 at 8:07 PM

Not to worry. I have no interest in other people’s lives/bedrooms. If you read carefully you know this already.

Your sarcasm at Romney is cute :)

Schadenfreude on January 18, 2012 at 8:08 PM

Obama and his capos, incl. the media, fear Newt more than the devil.

Schadenfreude on January 18, 2012 at 8:00 PM

Newt Gingrich is a complete and utter joke. Gingrich as the nominee would mean that Obama wouldn’t even have to break a sweat. I take it you weren’t around in the 1990′s when Gingrich was one of the most reviled (for good reason) politicians in the country? Conservatives hate Gingrich, as do independents.

Heck, the man can’t even get on the ballot in his home state of VA. Newt is too incompetent to manage a campaign. All he can do is fire off blustery answers in debates and grandstand like some pompous old fool.

bluegill on January 18, 2012 at 8:08 PM

haner on January 18, 2012 at 8:07 PM

Don’t start unsubstantiated rumors. Otherwise you are the left.

Schadenfreude on January 18, 2012 at 8:09 PM

All she has to say is “He beat me” and it’s game over.

Game over.

haner on January 18, 2012 at 8:07 PM

And if she said anything like that, you think ABC would have any “ethics” about airing the interview?

I’m just sayin’

Sekhmet on January 18, 2012 at 8:10 PM

ABC (who just dumped an innacurate hit piece on Romneys taxes today) doesn’t want to air this interview with Newt’s Ex wife because they “don’t want to interfere with South Carolina”

http://drudgereport.com/flash2.htm

Who’s the MSM behind again Newtbotts?

1punchWill on January 18, 2012 at 7:48 PM

Excellent comment. It’s obvious that Obama fans want Newt. Everyone knows it.

Newt means Obama will have a cakewalk.

bluegill on January 18, 2012 at 8:10 PM

I think the O-bots at ABC are more fearful of Romney winning, which is why they are holding off on the alleged NewtGate.

Marianne probably won’t divulge anything different about Newt than what we already know and discuss here on a daily basis. We all Newt is an arrogant, condescending, self-destructive attack muffin. Nothing to see folks, move along.

Philly on January 18, 2012 at 8:11 PM

bluegill on January 18, 2012 at 8:08 PM

I’m for West/McDonnell. I hate all of those in the run.

Still, I’d pay good dough to see Newt debate Obama’s teleprompter.

Schadenfreude on January 18, 2012 at 8:11 PM

All she has to say is “He beat me” and it’s game over.

Game over.

haner on January 18, 2012 at 8:07 PM

Wouldn’t surprise me.

bluegill on January 18, 2012 at 8:11 PM

Obama and his capos, incl. the media, fear Newt more than the devil.

Schadenfreude on January 18, 2012 at 8:00 PM

Against Newt Obama wins 40+ states.

EddieC on January 18, 2012 at 8:11 PM

Wouldn’t surprise me.

bluegill on January 18, 2012 at 8:11 PM

Is one of you Andrew Sullivan?

Schadenfreude on January 18, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Obama and his capos, incl. the media, fear Newt more than the devil.

Schadenfreude on January 18, 2012 at 8:00 PM

That’s because they’re on the same side as the devil, and Newt Gingrich looks like a hungry Jabba da Hutt.

1punchWill on January 18, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Against Newt Obama wins 40+ states.

EddieC on January 18, 2012 at 8:11 PM

Against Romney, Obama wins by 5.

Schadenfreude on January 18, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Against Romney, Obama wins by 5.

Schadenfreude on January 18, 2012 at 8:12 PM

I think Obama by 2-3 against Romney, 10-12 against Newt.

EddieC on January 18, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Mitt Romney makes John Fing Kerry look like he has integrity.

tom daschle concerned on January 18, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Romney wins back many of the independents who went for Obama (and who gave Obama his victory).

Newt Gingrich would send independents (especially women) and others running for the hills. Nominating Newt Gingrich would be suicidal.

bluegill on January 18, 2012 at 8:16 PM

Heh, you’re funny. They’re not protecting anyone. They let enough of the cat out of the bag to appear ‘ethical’. If you believe they are, you are fooled, royally.

Schadenfreude on January 18, 2012 at 8:04 PM

The joke’s on you. Your RDS has caused you to ignore ALL of Newt’s flaws – some of them electorally catastrophic, falling in love with the zingers he throws in a debate, like he’s Obama with Greek columns.

He has betrayed 2 wives and betrayed conservatives 3 times since the election has just started. If Romney attacked Paul Ryan 2 years ago, his campaign would be over. Meanwhile, every time Newt attacks capitalism or defends consulting for Freddie, you rally around him like he’s Reagan defending firing air traffic controllers.

Newt will not win a single state, and then you will see this interview air after he’s done. And, I will be there to laugh in your face saying, “thank God we didn’t listen to that crank schadenfreude.”

The Count on January 18, 2012 at 8:20 PM

Chudi on January 18, 2012 at 8:02 PM

ABC is going to make the voters of South Carolina look like fools if Newt surges.

scotash on January 18, 2012 at 8:21 PM

Frankly, I suspect that the ‘suits’ at ABC probably wished to hang on to the Marianne Gingrich interview until the general election and release it say.. about… late August…leaving Gingrich to flail about.. issuing denial after denial and trying to do some kind of damage control until the general. It would have served to blow Gingrich out of the race and HAND the election to Obama. Thankfully, an ‘insider’ gave the story to DRUDGE and the story broke now so we’ll never know for sure one way or the other. If it blows Gingrich out of the race then, given that he was aware that Marianne might do just this very thing, its the risk that he assumed when he decided to run. I’m of the opinion that she most likely has some proof for anything that she’s going to ‘reveal’ about Gingrich, since knowing him as well as she must after 18 years… and those particular 18 years of his life to be specific.. surely she must have thought that he would likely sue her if she slandered or libeled him. A TWO HOUR interview has to entail a great deal more specificity than just ‘He cheated on me when he was Speaker.”

thatsafactjack on January 18, 2012 at 8:22 PM

Newt == John Edwards with bad hair

MJBrutus on January 18, 2012 at 8:35 PM

That interview will help Newt more than hurt him…

equanimous on January 18, 2012 at 7:35 PM

Are you kidding? Are you people this delusional? You think women don’t vote in this country? You think women will listen to this kind of stuff, and then vote for that guy for president? Are you that stupid, really?

Chudi on January 18, 2012 at 7:49 PM

yeh I was trying to be funny… and was going to add the disclaimer “…at least among the male voters.” but thought it was obvious and implied… meaning after they see what kind of woman this lady is they will understand why they divorced… joking… attempt at humor… should have added a *rimshot…and I’m not a “you people”… no need for insults…

equanimous on January 18, 2012 at 8:49 PM

Newt & Romney Dead Even in South Carolina. “No one Else is even close” says PPP
Santorum support collapsed and supporters breaking for Newt.

Just as predicted earlier in this thread.

Friday Polls will show Newt tied or with a lead.
see Twit @PPPPolls for source

Afterseven on January 18, 2012 at 10:22 PM

Listen, you’re bigoted trash. I want nothing to do with you, and I’m through responding to your idiocy. I hope you don’t vote for Romney because I don’t want you to be able to take credit later on for helping elect one of the best presidents in modern history.

bluegill on January 18, 2012 at 8:05 PM

I’m actually starting to lose count of the number of times that I’ve seen online somebody being told that Romney does not need his vote. My goodness, what would bluegill say if Romney loses to Obama — “thank God he was spared the burden of a victory sullied by the votes of bigots”?

Aitch748 on January 18, 2012 at 10:33 PM

I don’t know about any Newtmentum..but my guess is he will screw himself up again, he always does..but then maybe Fox can lob him some softball questions in an interview and he can thrill the base by picking on black kids or whatever.

BTW, 74% of the people in this country on welfare or some kind of government support are white..so if Newt wants to really stand up against political correctness maybe he can demand that white people get a work ethic. But that would not get him a standing ovation from a GOP debate audience..so that won’t be happening. Maybe he will just attack capitalism instead.

The truth is that debate was a gift from Fox to Newt and it might help him, but I don’t think most conservatives are going to be fooled by some performance on stage by this guy. He is an unethical, self serving egomaniac who has spent most of his life in DC feeding off of the federal government. He is more con artist than conservative.

Terrye on January 18, 2012 at 10:36 PM

How thrilled is Newt by Palin’s endorsement last night, by the way? This thrilled:

“Gov. Palin is somebody who I think was a very good reform governor. She was extraordinarily effective negotiating with big oil. She did a good job in the state of Alaska. I think she’s a very articulate leader of the tea party conservative movement. I was honored and delighted last night when she said if she were in South Carolina, she’d vote for Newt Gingrich. I hope everybody who likes her decides she’s right. And I hope they vote for me.

“Certainly, she’s one of the people I’d call on for advice. I would ask her to consider taking a major role in the next administration if I’m president, but nothing has been discussed of any kind. And it wouldn’t be appropriate to discuss it at this time

Hey, those Fox analysts stick together. It is interesting to see a woman who is such a conservative backing a man who supported federal funding for abortions back in the 90s…and it is interesting to see a man who has such a crappy history with woman pandering to one to get her support..for what it is worth anyway.

The truth is I am pretty disgusted with both of them. Sarah Palin has sold out. Plain and simple. And Gingrich is the same man who said that Paul Ryan’s plan for medicare reform was right wing social engineering. There is not one issue he has not been on both sides of.

Terrye on January 18, 2012 at 10:40 PM

Newt & Romney Dead Even in South Carolina. “No one Else is even close” says PPP
Santorum support collapsed and supporters breaking for Newt.

Just as predicted earlier in this thread.

Friday Polls will show Newt tied or with a lead.
see Twit @PPPPolls for source

Afterseven on January 18, 2012 at 10:22 PM

Anything is possible, but intrade still has Romney at over 80% to win this.

Terrye on January 18, 2012 at 10:42 PM

BTW, 74% of the people in this country on welfare or some kind of government support are white..so if Newt wants to really stand up against political correctness maybe he can demand that white people get a work ethic. But that would not get him a standing ovation from a GOP debate audience..so that won’t be happening. Maybe he will just attack capitalism instead.

Terrye on January 18, 2012 at 10:36 PM

74% of the people this country are white so what is your point? Newt never once mentioned race in his comments but people assume that “poor” must mean “black” and that shows their own biases not Gingrich’s…

Newt’s remarks:

“Really poor children in really poor neighborhoods have no habits of working and have nobody around them who works,” the former House speaker said at a campaign event at the Nationwide Insurance offices. “So they literally have no habit of showing up on Monday. They have no habit of staying all day. They have no habit of ‘I do this and you give me cash,’ unless it’s illegal.”

Hollywood rich liberals don’t mind their children working in film… so what is the problem?

equanimous on January 18, 2012 at 11:06 PM

Some good posts with very little name calling. I know what sucked in all the support for Odumba but I thought Repubs were more educated than this…to not see thru this guy is beyond me. Whoevser said it is right, Newt would not carry any water against Obama and we might not be a party anymore. Consequenses of no critical thinking and rigid ideology. Romney needs a good thumping and lessons in direct confirtation but he is much better than Obama and can work for all…no just some.

AReadyRepub on January 19, 2012 at 12:01 AM

That interview will help Newt more than hurt him…
equanimous on January 18, 2012 at 7:35 PM

Are you kidding? Are you people this delusional? You think women don’t vote in this country? You think women will listen to this kind of stuff, and then vote for that guy for president? Are you that stupid, really?

Chudi on January 18, 2012 at 7:49 PM

MITT ROMNEY, IS THAT YOU?!?!

TheClearRiver on January 19, 2012 at 6:12 PM

Comment pages: 1 2 3