ARG poll in SC: Romney 29, Gingrich 25, Paul 20

posted at 1:40 pm on January 13, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Over the next week, we’re going to see a lot of polling in South Carolina, and note the consistencies and the differences between them, and Ramussen and ARG get us off to a good start today.  Both polls released today show Mitt Romney in the lead, and both show Newt Gingrich in second place — but the two diverge at that point:

Mitt Romney leads the South Carolina Republican presidential primary with 29%. Newt Gingrich is in second place with 25% and Ron Paul is in third place with 20%.

Paul has gained the most and Rick Santorum has lost the most since the last American Research Group survey on January 4-5. In that survey, Paul was at 9% and Santorum was at 24%.

Gingrich and Romney are tied among self-identified Republicans with 29% each, followed by Paul with 18%. Paul leads among independents and Democrats with 29%, followed by Romney with 27%, Gingrich with 12%, and Rick Perry with 11%.

Gingrich is a little closer to Romney in this poll, within four (and the margin of error) rather than seven in Rasmussen.  Paul’s position in this poll isn’t far off from what Rasmussen showed, 16% and a tie for third place.  For Santorum, though, the difference between the two is profound.  He’s lost ground in South Carolina in both polls, but in Rasmussen it’s eight points, and in ARG it’s seventeen, down from 24% in last week’s ARG survey.  That seems strange for a candidate who hasn’t made a gaffe that would be worthy of such a one-week swing in polling support, and it makes me question whether ARG’s sampling was off this week or last week.

The methodology for both looks solid, though.  Rasmussen has a sample of 750 likely voters taken in a single day; ARG uses 600 likely voters surveyed over two days, somewhat smaller but still more than large enough for a state-wide poll.  ARG has significantly fewer non-Republicans at 79/21 to Rasmussen’s 71/29, but that should hurt Paul rather than help him.  We could value the two surveys based on their predictive accuracy in New Hampshire, but as it turns out, they were almost identical.

Both polls give the basic outline of the race in South Carolina, which is that Romney leads by a small but significant amount, and Gingrich is closest to him at the moment.  Both pollsters and many others will undoubtedly weigh in again on this state, and we will see whether either or both of these turn out to have the pulse of the electorate or end up being outliers.


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@ working class artist:

check this link out, it’s the gift that keeps on giving:

http://www.texasahead.org/economy/outlook.html

Conger on January 13, 2012 at 3:48 PM

Conger on January 13, 2012 at 3:46 PM

surplus…surplus…surplus…

Despite a record drought, Wildfires and Obama’s war on Texas.

Yep!

Gig Em’
Perry 2012

workingclass artist on January 13, 2012 at 3:50 PM

I’ve lost a lot of respect for Ingraham after she asked Perry that silly question about vetting his donors (her job) and sarcastically introducing the vindictive Cain clip.

ZGMF_Freedom on January 13, 2012 at 3:01 PM

So you shoot the messenger because Perry walked into a trap that he set himself? Perry started the “vulture capitalism” not Ingraham.

JPeterman on January 13, 2012 at 3:09 PM

I had a different take on this interview. I agree politicians can’t vet every donor. But Perry was saying that it’s OK for people to look at his donors’ records, that he was OK with that. It’s obvious from the conversation.

And having vulture capitalists as donors is different than being a vulture capitalist. Besides, Reagan accepted contributions from the Log Cabin Republicans, which was questioned by many conservatives at the time. As he pointed out, they were endorsing his platform, not the other way around.

NbyNW on January 13, 2012 at 3:54 PM

Conger on January 13, 2012 at 3:48 PM

Yeah we have a badass Comptroller, Governor and Atty. General.

Results Matter…They come from strong leadership.

Dig this.
http://texanomics.blogspot.com/

workingclass artist on January 13, 2012 at 3:54 PM

NbyNW on January 13, 2012 at 3:54 PM

KUDOS!

workingclass artist on January 13, 2012 at 3:56 PM

The state legislature, with Romney’s support, also cut spending by $1.6 billion, including $700 million in reductions in state aid to cities and towns. . . . Romney sought additional cuts in his last year as Massachusetts governor by vetoing nearly 250 items in the state budget, but all of them were overridden by the Democratic-dominated legislature.

??????

Gunlock Bill on January 13, 2012 at 3:13 PM

The cynic in me says he vetoed these bills because he was already planning ahead for the presidential campaign, and nor for re-election in MA. He knew they would be over-ridden.

NbyNW on January 13, 2012 at 3:56 PM

i agree. my guess is that SC really dislikes Massachusetts moderates and see newt as one of theirs.

nathor on January 13, 2012 at 1:55 PM

Which is why Newt has such a dominating lead over Rom…OH WAIT

Kriggly on January 13, 2012 at 4:06 PM

The state legislature, with Romney’s support, also cut spending by $1.6 billion, including $700 million in reductions in state aid to cities and towns. . . . Romney sought additional cuts in his last year as Massachusetts governor by vetoing nearly 250 items in the state budget, but all of them were overridden by the Democratic-dominated legislature.

Gunlock Bill on January 13, 2012 at 3:00 PM

Texas cut $15 Billion from it’s budget because Perry stood his ground. Largest cuts since WWII.

Upgraded our credit rating too.

workingclass artist on January 13, 2012 at 4:09 PM

Charleston’s been flooded with ex-NYers and ex-Mazzholes over the past 10 years. Your sample might be a little skewed compared to the rest of the state. Just sayin…

angryed on January 13, 2012 at 2:17 PM

And where do you live? You don’t know more about this area than me.

stingray9813 on January 13, 2012 at 4:12 PM

Which is why Newt has such a dominating lead over Rom…OH WAIT

Kriggly on January 13, 2012 at 4:06 PM

It’s not about where you’re at right now, but where you’ll be at on election day.

Right now, the hunch of this South Carolinian is that Gingrich is steady to slowly trending up, and Romney is trending down. I also see Santorum finishing in the single digits, possibly the low single digits, and Perry surging from his 5% to 10-20%.

I think it is possible Santorum will drop out after SC, which should make things interesting (even though Mitt seems likely to take Florida, regardless of what happens in SC).

IcedTea on January 13, 2012 at 4:14 PM

Gunlock Bill on January 13, 2012 at 3:32 PM

MA under Romney = #47 in jobs and #36 by the Tax Foundation

Tx under Rick Perry = #1 in Jobs and #7 By the Tax Foundation

http://www.taxfoundation.org/taxdata/show/22661.html

workingclass artist on January 13, 2012 at 3:43 PM

CATO RATINGS 2006

Matt Blunt (R) Missouri 63 A
Rick Perry(R) Texas 61 B
Mark Sanford (R) South Carolina 60 B
Phil Bredesen (D) Tennessee 60 B
Mike Rounds (R) South Dakota 59 B
John Huntsman (R)* Utah 59 B
John Lynch (D) New Hampshire 58 B
Sonny Perdue (R) Georgia 56 C
Bill Richardson (D) New Mexico 56 C
Brad Henry (D) Oklahoma 56 C
Tom Vilsack (D) Iowa 56 C
Mitt Romney (R) Massachusetts 55 C
Tim Pawlenty (R) Minnesota 55 C

Congrats Mitt. You’re only the 7th most liberal Democrat!

angryed on January 13, 2012 at 4:14 PM

And where do you live? You don’t know more about this area than me.

stingray9813 on January 13, 2012 at 4:12 PM

I noticed you didn’t dispute the fact that the area has been flooded with NYers and NEers.

angryed on January 13, 2012 at 4:15 PM

I noticed you didn’t dispute the fact that the area has been flooded with NYers and NEers.

angryed on January 13, 2012 at 4:15 PM

There are a lot of transplants in the Charleston area, but many of them are from various parts of the South, too.

SC isn’t Florida, it is still a very Southern state.

IcedTea on January 13, 2012 at 4:21 PM

The cynic in me says he vetoed these bills because he was already planning ahead for the presidential campaign, and nor for re-election in MA. He knew they would be over-ridden.

NbyNW on January 13, 2012 at 3:56 PM

He was planning to run for President early in 2005, if not before. Although he didn’t announce until the end of the year, it had been pretty clear for months.

Check out this WSJ piece on his, um, evolution.

Just Sayin on January 13, 2012 at 4:24 PM

ARG’s first poll in the state, so it’s impossible to gauge. Rasmussen’s poll shows potential (within MOE) movement in the last week with Santorum falling and that support divided between Gingrich and Paul.

South Carolina has picked the eventual nominee in every single primary since it was first held in 1980.

Adjoran on January 13, 2012 at 4:24 PM


How a Perry presidency would handle the national debt

video at link

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/on-air/on-the-record/2012/01/13/how-perry-presidency-would-handle-national-debt#ixzz1jNL5PSGp

transcript excerpts from the interview:

VAN SUSTEREN: In terms of the battle down in South Carolina, the politics, is that I heard today — I heard the audiotape where Laura Ingraham was politely grilling you a little bit about — for giving Governor Romney a little bit of hell for Bain Capital. And then you’ve had private equity funds I think to the tune of $7 million contributed to your campaigns as governor of Texas.

So I’m curious, you know, what — I’m curious how you reconcile the criticism of Governor Romney for his Bain Capital private equity, and then you take — and accepting the funds of the largesse of private equity people.

PERRY: Well, I think this is a little bit overblown. When I was talking about Governor Romney, I was talking about two companies right here in South Carolina, where they came in and they made that decision to throw a lot of debt at these companies, and then strip out the assets and sell the companies, and those people lost their jobs.

I don’t think that is the theory and the best way for a Republican presidential candidate to be talking about, Here’s the way that we’re going to operate in the future. I’m the candidate that’s actually created jobs working with our legislature and over a million jobs, and that is an indisputable fact, that we’ve created over a million jobs in the state of Texas while I’ve been the governor, creating that business climate where people know they can risk their capital.

But the idea that — America has now been leveraged by this current president that we have. And you know, you ask yourself, What do you want? Do you want someone who’s going to throw more debt at it, as Governor Romney did with these two businesses in South Carolina, the photo album business in Gaffney, South Carolina, and the steel mill in Georgetown? Or do you want someone with a proven track record who has, in fact, created the environment, cut the taxes and the regulations and put a legal system in place that doesn’t allow for over-suing, and then get out of the way and let the private sector grow?

I think the latter. My record in Texas is what Americans are looking for, rather than the private equity background that Mitt Romney has.”

VAN SUSTEREN: Governor, looking at sort of the complement of people running, it’s clear that probably Congressman Ron Paul is a little bit different than the rest of — than the rest of the field. And I’m just curious, if you were the nominee, and in recognition of the fact that he has strong passion, lots of followers, but that he could create almost a Ross Perot situation for the Republican Party, what would you do to bring him inside the tent so that he didn’t torpedo the Republican candidate?

PERRY: Well, listen, I think Congressman Paul’s got some — you know, he’s got some good ideas when it comes to the economy, with the Federal Reserve and what have you. You know, where most people kind of go off the track with Congressman Paul is on his foreign policy and some of his statements about the military and Iran in particular, and whether or not he would defend Israel. That’s where we have a real problem. But economically, there are some things that Congressman Paul’s talking about that are spot on.

VAN SUSTEREN: So how would you bring him in the tent?

PERRY: And you know — well, you said — I mean, obviously, I don’t think he wants to be outside the tent. I think he wants to be inside trying to get rid of Barack Obama. He knows that the real target here is getting rid of Obama. I mean, the man who has put $15 trillion of debt on future generations — I mean, ask yourself, America, are you better off today than you were $4 trillion ago? And the answer is no.

I mean, no one that’s, I mean, the least bit honest can say that the $4 trillion experiment that Obama and his administration has put America through is good for this country. And Ron Paul knows that. And I think that he cares more about this country. He cares more about getting America back on track economically.

And that’s the reason that not only will he stay hitched from the standpoint of the Republican standpoint, but we need him to be in there swinging away and helping us to beat Obama in 2012…”

workingclass artist on January 13, 2012 at 4:26 PM

South Carolina has picked the eventual nominee in every single primary since it was first held in 1980.

Adjoran on January 13, 2012 at 4:24 PM

That is overblown. This primary is very different from all the rest.

But SC will certainly have a huge impact on how the primary shakes down, that is for sure – it will certainly be far more consequential than Iowa or NH’s primaries.

IcedTea on January 13, 2012 at 4:27 PM

Main Stream Media must be so proud of their Anointed One 29%.

Now no one can say he is stuck at 25%.

Anyone but Romney is getting 75%.

We give Romney the nomination and we are idiots.

Steveangell on January 13, 2012 at 4:32 PM

There are a lot of transplants in the Charleston area, but many of them are from various parts of the South, too.

SC isn’t Florida, it is still a very Southern state.

IcedTea on January 13, 2012 at 4:21 PM

“Texas tops the list in U.S. for seventh straight year, followed by Florida and South Carolina…

Outbound States

Illinois usurped the title of top outbound state with the highest net relocation losses (more outbound than inbound shipments), followed by Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey and New York – all part of the top 5 outbound states in 2010. Illinois lost ground this year, with a net loss of 1,198 moves out of state, versus 2010 losses of 1,050. Michigan, the No. 1 outbound state in 2010, had a net loss of 900 moves, an improvement over last year’s 1,149 outbound moves. Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York rounded out the bottom five, with net relocation losses of 940, 841 and 669, respectively.”

http://www.allied.com/2011MagnetReport.aspx

Hope they leave their liberal politics behind.

workingclass artist on January 13, 2012 at 4:34 PM

That is overblown. This primary is very different from all the rest.

But SC will certainly have a huge impact on how the primary shakes down, that is for sure – it will certainly be far more consequential than Iowa or NH’s primaries.

IcedTea on January 13, 2012 at 4:27 PM

This is a very different primary.

workingclass artist on January 13, 2012 at 4:36 PM

Both polls indicates a Ron Paul surge!!!

Capitalist75 on January 13, 2012 at 4:37 PM

workingclass artist on January 13, 2012 at 4:26 PM

Problem is there is really no solution to Entitlements.

Social Security depended on women having 4 or 5 children but they no longer do that with a figure of less than two we simply do not have enough younger workers to support the baby boom generation retiring now and living for another 25 years or so.

So everyone talks about the edges and ignores or mostly ignores the elephant in the room. Though of course much of our current deficit is wasteful spending that will not be the case in a few years. Either real cuts happen in entitlements or very high deficits continue.

Steveangell on January 13, 2012 at 4:39 PM

I noticed you didn’t dispute the fact that the area has been flooded with NYers and NEers.

angryed on January 13, 2012 at 4:15 PM

I dispute that it’s FLOODED with NYers and NEers. The majority is people who have lived here all our lives. I figured you weren’t from here.

stingray9813 on January 13, 2012 at 4:41 PM

PPP poll is out on real clear politics! paul 15%

nathor on January 13, 2012 at 4:47 PM

Will there be a post from AllahP about the latest PPP SC poll which shows Mitt leading by only five at 29%? Newt’s up to 24% in it. Doesn’t look like Newt’s “attacking the very core of our nation!!eleventy” has hurt him, in fact he’s up several points from the 18% he’d gotten twice in other polls there last week.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-1590.html

Huntsman back to sixth place and Perry’s up 1 point.

-Aslan’s Girl

Aslans Girl on January 13, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Will there be a post from AllahP about the latest PPP SC poll which shows Mitt leading by only five at 29%? Newt’s up to 24% in it. Doesn’t look like Newt’s “attacking the very core of our nation!!eleventy” has hurt him, in fact he’s up several points from the 18% he’d gotten twice in other polls there last week.

true!
economic populism will give results. republicans should be very careful fielding a guy that can easily be painted as a “volture capitalist” by the dems.
its a serious blow to mitt’s electability!

nathor on January 13, 2012 at 5:18 PM

Perry’s at 9%? That’s the highest number he’s seen in SC in over a month!

ARG hasn’t been added to RCP’s average, so I’m glad to see it here.

I’m liking these numbers and glad to see Newt has pulled up (so much for Newt’s “attacking the very core of our nation!!eleventy” hurting him).

-Aslan’s Girl

Aslans Girl on January 13, 2012 at 5:31 PM

CNN has a new national poll out, too. Perry’s also UP — to 9% nationally, the highest number nationally he’s seen in month! I’m taking this as very encouraging news :)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html

Aslans Girl on January 13, 2012 at 5:37 PM

Heck, at this rate, Perry latest three numbers in national polls are 7, 5, 9 and his average is 6.6%, he might not have needed to be “given” his spot at the debates, looking like he may have gotten their without any help (he needed to average 7% in three national or three state polls).

Aslans Girl on January 13, 2012 at 5:39 PM

Heck, at this rate, Perry latest three numbers in national polls are 7, 5, 9 and his average is 6.6%, he might not have needed to be “given” his spot at the debates, looking like he may have gotten their without any help (he needed to average 7% in three national or three state polls).

Aslans Girl on January 13, 2012 at 5:39 PM

perry should abandon now.

nathor on January 13, 2012 at 5:45 PM

Ron Paul 2012!

steve123 on January 13, 2012 at 6:11 PM

Aslans Girl on January 13, 2012 at 5:39 PM

If you look up, you can see the vultures circling his, Jon’s and Newt’s campaigns.

MJBrutus on January 13, 2012 at 6:14 PM

But I do admit, the opinions of Dan Halutz and Efraim Ha-Levi carry some weight with me, and I’m glad they are so optimistic. Now, would you be so kind as to direct me to the source where said opinion is posted? Any language will do.

Archivarix on January 13, 2012 at 3:41 PM

Contrary to statements made when he was in office, former IDF chief Dan Halutz now negates ‘doomsday scenarios’ vis-à-vis Iran

Ex-Mossad Chief Ephraim Halevy warns strike on Iran could have devastating effect for region. ‘Ultra-Orthodox radicalization poses bigger threat than Ahmadinejad,’ he says

JohnGalt23 on January 13, 2012 at 6:16 PM

nathor on January 13, 2012 at 5:45 PM

Just as a few polls are showing him maybe starting a surge? LOL! You must be a Mittbot!

I hadn’t even realized that Santorum got 7% here; Perry’s ahead of both Santorum and Huntsman, woohoo! Keep it up, Perry :):):)

Aslans Girl on January 13, 2012 at 6:40 PM

If you look up, you can see the vultures circling his, Jon’s and Newt’s campaigns.

MJBrutus on January 13, 2012 at 6:14 PM

Yes, but if I learned anything from IA, it’s that a candidate can go from 2% to 24% virtually overnight (Santorum, Rick).

Any improvement in Perry’s numbers, and there is more than one poll showing that today, will make me :)

Aslans Girl on January 13, 2012 at 6:41 PM

Aslans Girl on January 13, 2012 at 6:41 PM

Well I like when you’re :), so let’s hope he breaks that 10% barrier :-)

MJBrutus on January 13, 2012 at 6:46 PM

Just as a few polls are showing him maybe starting a surge? LOL! You must be a Mittbot!

I hadn’t even realized that Santorum got 7% here; Perry’s ahead of both Santorum and Huntsman, woohoo! Keep it up, Perry :):):)

Aslans Girl on January 13, 2012 at 6:40 PM

pro paul here. i read little into the national polls
perry is quite low in SC and florida. he has to give up.

nathor on January 13, 2012 at 6:57 PM

I’m *so* glad the delegate representation in *most* states is proportional instead of “winner take all” this tine around:

Dear South Carolinians: A vote for Perry or Santorum is a vote for Romney’s “inevitability”

http://legalinsurrection.com/2012/01/dear-south-carolinians-a-vote-for-perry-or-santorum-is-a-vote-for-romneys-inevitability/

Czar of Defenestration on January 13, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Heck, at this rate, Perry latest three numbers in national polls are 7, 5, 9 and his average is 6.6%, he might not have needed to be “given” his spot at the debates, looking like he may have gotten their without any help (he needed to average 7% in three national or three state polls).

Aslans Girl on January 13, 2012 at 5:39 PM

perry should abandon now.

nathor on January 13, 2012 at 5:45 PM

He is averaging 6.6% and you are impressed? Good grief. He needs to quit and back to TX before he embarrasses us further. Aren’t you embarrassed by your delusional cheer-leading?

I guess not. He has been a complete disaster.

SparkPlug on January 13, 2012 at 7:50 PM

workingclass artist on January 13, 2012 at 4:26 PM

Note that Perry didn’t answer Van Susteren’s question about how he justifies his own campaign taking “vulture money”.

whatcat on January 13, 2012 at 8:06 PM

According to this poll, Al Gore’s former campaign manager has hit double-digits in South Carolina.

And Aslan’s Girl says Al Gore’s former political strategist is now bumping 9% nationally. Why, that lowers the percentage not in favor of him being President down to a mere 91%! Doable. Doable.

What Al Gore’s former campaign manager needs to do now is implement the Virginia stategery in South Carolina – threaten to sue anyone who doesn’t vote for him.

He could also hand out free tickets to the Gay Rodeo in Fort Worth, March 2-4, hailed as a Texas Tradition, but that would probably be bribery. (not that there’s anything wrong with it)

Go, Rick, Go! Al is proud of you!

Horace on January 13, 2012 at 10:10 PM

Yes, but if I learned anything from IA, it’s that a candidate can go from 2% to 24% virtually overnight (Santorum, Rick).

Any improvement in Perry’s numbers, and there is more than one poll showing that today, will make me :)

Aslans Girl on January 13, 2012 at 6:41 PM

The dynamics are much different. In Iowa, Santorum received the benefit of being the last not Romney candidate. Now he has been vetted and like all others has been found less than acceptable. What we have now is the final decision about who will be the not Romney candidate. Perry is done as is Ernesto Huntsman. Santorum is likely done and Paul is in for the duration. That leaves Gingrich as the only viable second look candidate. But his attacks on the free market and the ads that will remind the voters of SC that he was in bed with freddie, is the only speaker to be sanctioned for ethics violations, sits on couches with Pelosi, and was booted out of his speakership by his own party.

But in the end, none of them can compete in Florida and when super Tuesday comes around, Romney is the only candidate with the ground organization and money to compete in all those states simultaneously.

csdeven on January 13, 2012 at 10:48 PM

HE IS THE MOST QUALIFIED, MOST ELECTABLE AND MOST HONORABLE

The latest “Perry Woman” video ABSOLUTELY OUTSTANDING
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mt7c4mQbaZ4

nancysabet on January 14, 2012 at 8:49 AM

Cast as Romney’s Victim, Gaffney South Carolina Says, ‘Huh?’
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/14/us/politics/cast-as-romneys-victim-gaffney-sc-says-huh.html?_r=1

Gov. Rick Perry of Texas picked up the theme this week, calling Mr. Romney a “vulture capitalist” and pointing to Gaffney as an example of the depths to which Mr. Romney will stoop to make a profit.

There is a problem, though. Here in Gaffney, where deeply held Christian beliefs often matter more than jobs, few remember the Holson Burnes photo album plant, let alone the devastation its closing is alleged to have caused back in 1992.

“I have been here all my life,” said Ed Elliott, who sells insurance. “I’m 59 years old, and I’ve never heard of the plant.”

That Bain’s actions carry little resonance in a community whose woes have been seized on by presidential candidates testifies to the impact of the campaigns’ opposition research and their willingness to exploit a convenient storyline. Here in Gaffney, the focus is a little embarrassing for residents who do not know what all the fuss is about.

“Nobody here really cares about that. It wasn’t a big deal,” Mr. Sossamon said. Others are similarly mystified.

That is not to say the loss of any job does not matter here. This city of 12,000 people has been brought to its knees first by the loss of the agricultural sector and then by the slow collapse of the textile industry. But there is work to be had. The photo album plant that was abandoned by Bain soon became home to a Bic pen factory that employs 80 people.

Nestlé has a large factory here, where a thousand workers make frozen dinners and other packaged food. The Freightliner Custom Chassis Corporation, with 500 employees, fashions chassis for school buses and mobile homes. About 700 people work at Timken producing steel roller bearings.

“We’re not Appalachia here,” Mr. Elliott said. “We’re not in poverty.”

oops….

haner on January 14, 2012 at 6:01 PM

Newt’s old campaign staffer (Matt Towery) who now runs Insider Advantage just released a new poll showing Newt with a 7 point lead over Paul. When you can’t earn respect then buy it, or just have an old friend fudge some numbers.

The goal is to turn this into a two man race between Newt and Romney. You’re buying it aren’t you?

popularpeoplesfront on January 16, 2012 at 12:32 AM

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