And away we go. After a year of munching popcorn, speculating, debating, yelling and sobbing, the first votes have been cast in an actual primary. And, as always, they took place in the stubborn little hamlets of Dixville Notch and Hart’s Location. (By the way… if you have to put the word “location” in the name of your town, you’re really out in the boonies.) Courtesy of OTB, the fine citizens of these tiny outposts of Democracy shuffled out in the darkness just after midnight and cast their ballots.
First up, Dixville Notch.
And then, Hart’s Location.
Are these people very good in terms of prognostication? In Dixville Notch, their track record is pretty impressive, having gone with the eventual GOP nominee in the last seven contested Republican primary battles. (The last time they missed was when they went with Nixon over Goldwater in 1964.) In terms of the general election, they’ve gone 8 wins and 5 losses since 1960, with seven of those wins being when Republicans won the White House. The lone exception was when they correctly picked Barack Obama in 2008.
The record for Hart’s Location is much shorter, since they apparently did the midnight voting once in 1964 and then stopped until 1996. They have correctly picked the GOP nominee in contested primaries only once since then. (John McCain in 2008) For the general election they correctly picked George W. Bush both times and Barack Obama in 2008.
So there you have it! We can all go home now, since with these results in hand we clearly know… nothing.