Romney slides 10 points in 5 days in the NH Suffolk poll

posted at 1:05 pm on January 9, 2012 by Tina Korbe

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s lead in New Hampshire has dropped by 10 points in the last five days, but he’s still the clear frontrunner in the Granite State, according to a Suffolk University/7News poll released this morning.

Romney retains support among 33 percent of likely voters for a 13-point lead ahead of second-place Ron Paul, who commands support from just 20 percent of likely voters. Jon Huntsman comes in third at 13 percent, Newt Gingrich fourth at 11 percent and Rick Santorum fifth at 10 percent. Rick Perry and Buddy Roemer (yes, Buddy Roemer!) combined attract just 3 percent. (Remember: Perry has opted not to actively campaign in New Hampshire, even though he participated in the two debates this weekend. He continues to bank on a big finish in South Carolina.)

However, another poll — a WMUR/University of New Hampshire poll released last night — suggests Romney’s support hasn’t weakened at all. That poll puts Romney at 41 percent, for a 24-point lead over a Ron Paul with 17 percent. Santorum bests Gingrich in this poll, 11 percent to 8 percent. Jon Huntsman remains in the mix, with 11 percent.

Two other positive signs for Romney in this poll: The vast majority of likely Republican primary voters — 78 percent — say they expect Romney to win, and 55 percent say he stands the best chance to beat Obama.

The discrepancy between the two polls — the one showing Romney on the wane and the other showing Romney holding steady — might stem from the time frames for the polls. The Suffolk poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday, equally before and after the last two New Hampshire debates. The WMUR/University of New Hampshire poll was conducted Thursday through Sunday, mostly before the debates. Romney came out of the debate Saturday night relatively unscathed by the other candidates, but, overall, he didn’t project a particularly charismatic or presidential persona. Sunday morning, the other candidates did make a point to attack him. In combination, the debates might have cast doubt on Romney supporters and/or invited likely New Hampshire voters to take a second look at the other candidates. It’s definitely true that this cycle has been very debate-driven.

The upshot of both polls, though, is that Romney remains the perceived inevitable winner of the first-in-the-nation primary, but the race for second-place is wide open. For now, it appears Ron Paul will capture that spot, but, as Ron Paul isn’t exactly a conventional candidate for the “conservative alternative to Romney” slot, his finish matters less than the order in which Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich finish. Both need to garner compelling two-digit support to build momentum as they move into South Carolina.


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I find it a little odd that a supposed Paul supporter would be saying nice things about the most liberal candidate in the race excepting Obama himself.

Doomberg on January 9, 2012 at 1:50 PM

Indeed, indeed. The land is full of mysteries, to put it mildly.

Schadenfreude on January 9, 2012 at 1:59 PM

Math is not your friend.

Schadenfreude on January 9, 2012 at 1:46 PM

Actually, it is.

But thanks for your concern.

Gunlock Bill on January 9, 2012 at 1:59 PM

You really haven’t been paying attention. His opponents have been attacking him from the beginning. Their attacks have been ineffective.

Gunlock Bill on January 9, 2012 at 1:58 PM

That’s why the teflon videos write themselves. All one has to do is play Obama/Romney, phantom of each other items…don’t tell the Obama camp.

Schadenfreude on January 9, 2012 at 2:01 PM

I’m out of here for a few hours. Play nicely, and remember folks, the main objective is to make damn sure that there are only 377 days remaining in the presidency of Barack Obama.

Flora Duh on January 9, 2012 at 2:05 PM

Uh…yeah?!!
Suprised by this?

Yesterday’s debate, McCain endorsement, Bain’s Bailout on Pension funds, oversea’s accounts…..No, not suprised at all.

Vetting is a bitch.

Politics isn’t a BAINBAG!!!

coach1228 on January 9, 2012 at 2:06 PM

And that is why Romney is ahead of everyone else, right?

Another find display of the logic of the ABR camp.

Gunlock Bill on January 9, 2012 at 1:43 PM

Like I said, spin it however, Mitt has never broken that 33% level in any of his campaigns for a conservative seat…he has when running as a liberal, but not as a conservative.
Despite setting spending records on campaigns…the last primary cycle against McCain, he spent nearly $7 per vote, about 3 times greater than had ever been spent before…and he got trounced because he can’t break out of the 33% base.
Now you point to me his conservative credentials, not what he says, but what organization, what conservative appointments? You list those and you will see why he can’t break into the graces of conservatives. (funny how Mitt supporters who are “conservatives” never get around to facing that inevitable fact)
That is why historically he has always been stuck at 33% max.
Mitt lost to a guy (less liberal than he), who lost to the guy, that Mitt is trying to beat. If he can’t capture more than 50% of the Republican vote, let alone just 33%, Obama will walk away with it.

right2bright on January 9, 2012 at 2:08 PM

He needs to release his tax returns and also come clean about the 200 million dollar inheritance he got from George Romney.

Did His father(George Romney) divert his money to avoid paying estate tax?

Isn’t there a song called “over sea’s accounts”??

coach1228 on January 9, 2012 at 2:09 PM

It’s not Romney’s Mormonism that bothers the crap out of me, it’s his moronism.

Bruno Strozek on January 9, 2012 at 1:54 PM

BEST ONE OF THE DAY!!!! LOL!!!

coach1228 on January 9, 2012 at 2:10 PM

I am new at posting (I have been reading here for years). Could someone explain to me how I bring someone else’s post into my post so that I can respond to it? Thanks in advance.

FastTalker on January 9, 2012 at 2:10 PM

Mitt gets a lot of his support from Democrats and independents. Now that Newt and Perry areattacking Mit with “anti-capitalist” themes, they may go to Paul or somebody else.

Mitt’s liberal base makes him vulnerable to this line of attack.

WhatNot on January 9, 2012 at 1:57 PM

You said it perfectly highlighted!!!

Thus…Mitt’s ELECTABLIITY IS A SHAM!!!!!

McRomney and Paul are the MOST UNELECTABLE…and your point is right on WhatNot..right on!!
The Vetting shall continue…..

coach1228 on January 9, 2012 at 2:14 PM

I am new at posting (I have been reading here for years). Could someone explain to me how I bring someone else’s post into my post so that I can respond to it? Thanks in advance.

FastTalker on January 9, 2012 at 2:10 PM

1. Highlight the comment you wish to bring in.

2. Hit the right mouse button.

3. With the left one select “Copy”

4. Go to new comment space and hit right mouse button again, then selct “Paste”.

5. Highlight all again and select “quote” from the top choices.

6. Then make your own comment.

Have fun and welcome!

Schadenfreude on January 9, 2012 at 2:14 PM

OT: TheFix The Fix
BREAKING: Bill Daley stepping down as WH chief of staff. ow.ly/8nhjB
19 seconds ago

steebo77 on January 9, 2012 at 2:15 PM

I am new at posting (I have been reading here for years). Could someone explain to me how I bring someone else’s post into my post so that I can respond to it? Thanks in advance.

FastTalker on January 9, 2012 at 2:10 PM

Copy it, paste it into the comment block, select it in the comment box so it highlighted. hit the quote button.

Then add your comments. hope this makes sense.

idesign on January 9, 2012 at 2:17 PM

Schadenfreude on January 9, 2012 at 2:14 PM

Your such a good Samaritan….Awe.

coach1228 on January 9, 2012 at 2:18 PM

So did you just wake up?

Romney has been being attacked since 2008. You must be new to HotAir.

Romney, until late 2011, was attacked by guys on the internet and some conservative pundits. That doesn’t come close to the media anal exam given to Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Sarah Palin, etc. He’s been coasting.

So, attacking his capitalistic successes is supposed to hurt him in the GOP Primary?

When did the GOP give up on capitalism?

I guess we ought to stop attacking Jon Corzine/MF Global and Jeff Immelt/General Electric? Or are you one of those people who thinks that “capitalists” would NEVER do bad/unconservative/sleazy things?

But if you were interested in a real debate, I would tell you that the CONTENT of negative ads does not seem to matter so much as their volume and tempo. When Herman Cain had his first bimbo eruption, his supporters rallied around his flag and poured money into his campaign. When he had his fifth, they were running for the hills. I’m sorry that your guy has a glass jaw and can’t handle attacks from weak candidates, but it’s better he be exposed now than having him waltz into the general and get crushed by the MSM.

You really haven’t been paying attention. His opponents have been attacking him from the beginning. Their attacks have been ineffective.

Again, what opponents? Some commenters and pundits on the internet and candidates like Bachmann who were more interested in wooing him for the VP slot on his ticket does not make for much real opposition.

Doomberg on January 9, 2012 at 2:18 PM

Your such a good Samaritan….Awe.

coach1228 on January 9, 2012 at 2:18 PM

From you, coach, I take it as a positive :)

…teach how to fish and all…

Schadenfreude on January 9, 2012 at 2:20 PM

Doomberg on January 9, 2012 at 2:18 PM

Nice post….right on!!

I hate dislike fake people(McRomney)!!!

coach1228 on January 9, 2012 at 2:21 PM

Schadenfreude on January 9, 2012 at 2:20 PM

Why of course my friend(hope that didn’t sound like McCain).

Reading threads and comments from the past week…it was just a good sign that civility still exists.
Sometimes we all get caught up in this mess….but the Vetting process must continue. Mitt picked a fight…..and Perry/ Newt are following his lead. Now that the shoe is on the other foot….the other foot just landed on Mitt’s A$$. Whining and crying is all I hear today.

Politics isn’t a BAINBAG!!!

coach1228 on January 9, 2012 at 2:28 PM

coach1228 on January 9, 2012 at 2:28 PM

Cheers!!!

Schadenfreude on January 9, 2012 at 2:34 PM

Why of course my friend(hope that didn’t sound like McCain).

coach1228 on January 9, 2012 at 2:28 PM

Messrs Coot ‘n Snoot

Schadenfreude on January 9, 2012 at 2:35 PM

What a crying shame Mr. Man-Made Global Warming’s lead is evaporating in New Hampshire. Could this be caused by global warming as well? :)

jfs756 on January 9, 2012 at 2:37 PM

Texas’s economy is thriving.

annoyinglittletwerp on January 9, 2012 at 1:57 PM

Why all the fuss about Texas’ economy? According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of November, Texas’ unemployment rate was 28th in the nation at 8.1, well behind socialist paradises like Vermont (5.3) and Massachusetts (7.0).

cam2 on January 9, 2012 at 2:41 PM

What a crying shame Mr. Man-Made Global Warming’s lead is evaporating in New Hampshire. Could this be caused by global warming as well? :)
jfs756 on January 9, 2012 at 2:37 PM

I told you he’s going to get 50 percent with his NH groudgame

gerry-mittbot-what could go wrong?

gerrym51 on January 9, 2012 at 3:04 PM

Certainly a fluid situation. Makes for an interesting primary season… and I still think the nomination is up for grabs.

Buckle up, kiddies… it’s going to be a bumpy ride to the convention!

Snorkdoodle Whizbang on January 9, 2012 at 3:24 PM

Mitts..Slip Sliding Away….Mitts…Slip Sliding Away…
You know the nearer your destination, the more Mitts slip sliding away……Whoah God only knows, God makes his plan
The information’s unavailable to the mortal man
We’re workin’ our jobs, collect our pay
Believe Mitts gliding down the highway, when in fact…………..he’s slip sliding away

Simon and Garfunkle

coach1228 on January 9, 2012 at 3:28 PM

We are supposed to be the rational ones… and yet such irrational hatred of Mitt Romney is ruling the day amongst a lot of “internetters”.

For crying out loud, he’s bragging about his willingness to work with Democrats! Why would we want a President who works with Democrats? We have one of those, now, and he’s wrecking the country. So, yeah, the alarm bells are clanging in my irrational, reptilian brain. “Ditch the Flipper!” “Ditch the Flipper!” And, if we’ll get serious about this election, there won’t be enough Democrats left to gum up the works.

It isn’t “irrational hatred.” It’s survival instinct.

TheClearRiver on January 9, 2012 at 3:50 PM

Comparing Bain to MF Global and other financial scandals is dishonest as well as stupid.

You filthy socialists should quit the Tea Party and join OWS if you believe that crap.

Adjoran on January 9, 2012 at 4:41 PM

If Rick “My campaign is like the Alamo” Perry slipped 10 points anywhere he would be in the minus/below zero area.

Is this even possible in modern-day polling?

Horace on January 9, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Romney came out of the debate Saturday night relatively unscathed by the other candidates, but, overall, he didn’t project a particularly charismatic or presidential persona.

Really? Don’t assume your opinion is fact Ms. Korbe.

echosyst on January 9, 2012 at 4:59 PM

One thing this election cycle is proving. Conservative pundits and bloggers (with their commenters), who in the main hate Romney, are having zero effect on the outcome of this primary season. You are all a fart in the wind.

And don’t say “the media” is picking our candidate. The voters are. Romney is not perfect but the other candidates are worse and their lack of traction is their responsibility only. Newt Ginrich should have been laughed out of this race from the start, right along with Santorum, Huntsman and Paul. Perry deserved a shot and I am saddened he didn’t catch on. Cain was a joke on a book tour. They all did it to themselves folks!

echosyst on January 9, 2012 at 5:03 PM

I’m sure there is a block of squishes who would vote for Romney over Obama (but wouldn’t vote for a conservative candidate over Obama). The question is, how many of them are there and where do they live?

disa on January 9, 2012 at 5:23 PM

I am new at posting (I have been reading here for years). Could someone explain to me how I bring someone else’s post into my post so that I can respond to it? Thanks in advance.

FastTalker on January 9, 2012 at 2:10 PM

Copy it, paste it into the comment block, select it in the comment box so it highlighted. hit the quote button.

Then add your comments. hope this makes sense.

idesign on January 9, 2012 at 2:17 PM

Thanks. Hope this works!

FastTalker on January 9, 2012 at 6:42 PM

Have fun and welcome!

Schadenfreude on January 9, 2012 at 2:14 PM

Thank you! Glad to be here.

FastTalker on January 9, 2012 at 6:49 PM

On the accuracy of Suffolk polling:

This past June [the piece was written in Oct 2010], Suffolk reported Republican Sharon Angle’s momentum generated late in the Nevada Republican Primary. SUPRC director David Paleologos was the first to predict that Angle would defeat front-runner Sue Lowden and businessman Danny Tarkanian. She went on to win by double digits on June 8. She is now the Republican candidate trailing Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid by only 3 points in the Nevada race for U.S. Senate.

In May of 2010, Suffolk released a poll of the Pennsylvania Primary for U.S. Senate. This poll showed Joe Sestak leading Arlen Specter by 9 points, and it was widely viewed as an outlier given that all other polls had the race dead even for the Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate. Sestak won by 8 points.

Right here in Massachusetts, Suffolk was the first to show Republican Scott Brown winning by 4 points in the U.S. Senate race against Democrat Martha Coakley just 3 days before the special senate election while many other pollsters had Coakley leading in the double digits. Brown won by just under 5 points.

In 2008, Suffolk was the only polling organization to report that Hillary Clinton was within the margin of error in the New Hampshire Democratic Primary. All other organizations had then-Senator Obama winning the race by a margin of 7 points or more. Further, our two bellwethers were the only statistical indicators in the country showing Clinton winning New Hampshire. She won by a margin of less than 3 points.

Now, this is from their own blog, so it doesn’t include any “misses.” But make of it what you will.

Just Sayin on January 9, 2012 at 7:57 PM

PRESIDENT NEWT OR PRESIDENT RICK WILL SERVE ALONGSIDE SENATOR CHRISTINE ODONNELL.

reliapundit on January 9, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Romney won NH last time too. In the end, Gingrich will win the nom.

popularpolitics on January 10, 2012 at 12:12 AM

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