Q-Poll: Romney opens up double digit lead in Florida

posted at 2:15 pm on January 9, 2012 by Jazz Shaw

A consistent theme in the media (not to mention a persistent fear in the “anybody but Romney” camp) is that Mitt could split the conservative vote into small enough slices to knock out wins in the first four states and effectively shut down the nomination process before Groundhog Day. Eight vote margins in Iowa aside, New Hampshire is looking pretty much in the bag and the news out of South Carolina hasn’t been bad either. Now, Quinnipiac University has another far from definite, but still hopeful bit of data for Romney in the Sunshine State.

With 36 percent of Florida Republican likely primary voters, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has a double-digit lead three weeks before the nation’s first big-state presidential primary, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. But 54 percent of GOP primary voters say they still might change their mind.

Twelve points back in the Republican pack is former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with 24 percent, followed by former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum with 16 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey finds. Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul is at 10 percent with 5 percent for Texas Gov. Rick Perry and 2 percent for former ambassador Jon Huntsman. This first look at likely primary voters, a more select group, can’t be compared with earlier surveys of registered voters.

The first caveat to put out there is that this poll was conducted roughly three weeks before the voting takes place in Florida. And as I learned the hard way on the campaign trail, in terms of American politics, that’s roughly enough time for several new mountains to rise and human beings to evolve wings. But with that said, it’s hard to find much in the way of bad news for Mitt in this snapshot.

It’s a poll of likely voters, not registered voters, and Quinnipiac has a fairly solid track record. 36 isn’t a majority by a long shot and a 12 point lead is hardly insurmountable, but the other factor to consider is that this is Florida we’re talking about. It’s one of the most expensive media markets in the country, and fighting a serious air war against Romney is going to require some deep pockets. We’re not going to know for sure how much money Gingrich, Perry and Santorum are sitting on until just before the voting begins – and even then it won’t take into account what they may have picked up after Iowa – but they’ll have to come up with a lot of resources to hit Romney very hard there.

Lower down in the data table, Mitt is tying Gingrich for support among self identified Tea Party supporters and even holding on to a tiny lead with white evangelical Christians. The only sliver of daylight for the rest of the pack is that roughly half say they “might change their mind” before the primary. Santorum looks to have the best chance of benefiting from that because one third of voters still say they haven’t learned enough about him to decide if they like him or not. Conversely, only 9% of voters are unfamiliar with Newt Gingrich, so his numbers may be fairly well locked in.

Either way, I doubt Romney will be boasting and exuding confidence over this… yet. But it’s got to be giving him a warm and fuzzy feeling.


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Romney had better watch his back.

From what I have seen posted on Hot Gas by the Branch Perridians, Ol’ Rick, in his Texas campaigns, has often been behind and then swoops in to victory at the finish line.

It appears he is using the same tactics in the primaries. Down to 1% in New Hampshire, 5% in South Carolina and, now, 5% in Florida.

Perfect! Now he has ‘em all just where he wants ‘em. Time for the “Texas Comeback Magic” to kick in.

That Rick – just like a Master chess player, isn’t he?

Horace on January 9, 2012 at 4:27 PM

Romney will pick Rubio and win FL, and obama will still win.

M_J_S on January 9, 2012 at 4:30 PM

Oromney is the worst candidate the Pubs. could possibly nominate out of the one’s running. He is a guy who was born with a silver spoon in his mouth. A multi millionire who comes from a wealthy career liberal NE country club political family. He can in no way relate to the average person who works for a living and pays taxes without the benefit of a horde of tax accoutants to find every loophole in the tax code. Romney likes to claim he has private sector experience. That’s spin. If I had hundreds of millions of dollars, I could try my hand at the private sector as a hobby and buy up a few companies and raid the assets and make a few million and claim I was a private sector genius. He tried to be a career politician but failed because couldn’t get elected but once.

Romney is a spoiled rich kid. He does not come from humble beginnings such as Santorum, Perry, Obama or even middle class such as Gingrich. Romney cannot even begin to connect with the average Joe in any possible way. When was the last time a Pub. candidate born with a silver spoon in his mouth from a super wealthy family was elected POTUS? Obama will kill Romney with this attack. It is possible for Dems. with this background to be elected, but not Pubs. Romney will lose by a landslide. Obama and the dems. have perfected the class warfare demon and Oromney is the ready made candidate to use it against. That’s why the dems. are salivating at the prospect of Romney being the nominee. Don’t ever bet on long shots unless you won’t to go broke. That’s the advice Vegas would give you.

Again, I ask, when was the last time a super rich progressive Pub. born with a silver spoon in his mouth was elected POTUS. I wouldn’t bet the farm on Romney being elected. Historically, the Odds are very much against it.

they lie on January 9, 2012 at 4:32 PM

If Rubio wants to never be elected to public office again, he will not be on any one’s ticket as VP. It is the political kiss of death. Research it.

they lie on January 9, 2012 at 4:34 PM

M_J_S

Rubio is a “native born” American, not a “naturally born” American, so if Romney or anyone else were to pick him as VP, it would be violation of the Constitution for him to serve, as with Jindal in LA.

Rubio will probably endorse Romney in Florida and campaign with him, but stay put in the Senate.

Of course, if the Repubs want to follow NoBama’s precedent and skip the qualifications for President in the Constitution, then, by all means, pick Rubio or Jindal. After all, that Constitution is over 100 years old and hhhhaaaarrrdddd to read.

Horace on January 9, 2012 at 4:35 PM

Rubio runs with Romney ? I want my money back !

Lucano on January 9, 2012 at 4:35 PM

You do understand that at every attempt at a national office he has lost…that he has never garnered any more that 33% of the Republican vote in a national run…that he has spent record amount of money to obtain that dismal record…yet you say he can win? Under what circumstances, that Obama does not run?
Mitt lost to the man, that lost to the man that Mitt wants to beat….

right2bright on January 9, 2012 at 4:22 PM

Ronald Regan lost to the man (Ford) that lost to the man (Carter) that he aimed to beat (and did in a landslide). See how fun this game is. It is 2012 and by now the bloom is off the rose for BO, The country is now doble A rated instead of triple A ( a historic event that did not happen during the Great Depression, Unemployment level soaring etc etc. Oh and also Romney will have more than the 70 Million McCain had to go against BO and his supporters (Soros, Move On Unions etc.

P.S. BO lost a lot of elections before his victory

Natebo on January 9, 2012 at 4:36 PM

they lie on January 9, 2012 at 4:32 PM

It’s obvious you are extremely stupid, but since when is Michigan in NE?

Adjoran on January 9, 2012 at 4:45 PM

The first caveat to put out there is that this poll was conducted roughly three weeks before the voting takes place in Florida. And as I learned the hard way on the campaign trail, in terms of American politics, that’s roughly enough time for several new mountains to rise and human beings to evolve wings.

A huge caveat. Who was leading Iowa, and where was Rick Santorum, three weeks before the Hawkeye Cauci? Apparently Rickarus sprouted his wings since then, but they might melt after voters get to know him.

Everybody knows Romney will win NH, so voters are ignoring it. Florida is certainly the big prize, but whoever has the “mo” out of South Carolina will get the $$$ needed to campaign in Florida. The real challenge is to get Ron Paul out of the race, so that the real Not-Romney can please stand up.

Steve Z on January 9, 2012 at 4:46 PM

More support for my theory that polls are destroying this country.

Just Sayin on January 9, 2012 at 4:47 PM

More support for my theory that polls are destroying this country.

Just Sayin on January 9, 2012 at 4:47 PM

Sorry – hit “submit” too soon.

Imagine if each and every voter cast a ballot for his or her preferred candidate and didn’t worry about what they thought everyone else was doing. It would be a very different world.

Just Sayin on January 9, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Don’t celebrate too soon, Romney. There’s still plenty of time left for the Super Pack ads from Newt and the others to kick-in and bring down those numbers–just like you brought down Newt’s numbers in Iowa. What’s good for the goose is good for the gander, Romney.

jfs756 on January 9, 2012 at 5:19 PM

Again, I ask, when was the last time a super rich progressive Pub. born with a silver spoon in his mouth was elected POTUS. I wouldn’t bet the farm on Romney being elected. Historically, the Odds are very much against it.

they lie on January 9, 2012 at 4:32 PM

George H.W.Bush and George W Bush, to answer your question

galtani on January 9, 2012 at 5:24 PM

If Rubio wants to never be elected to public office again, he will not be on any one’s ticket as VP. It is the political kiss of death. Research it.

they lie on January 9, 2012 at 4:34 PM

What do you mean? It worked out swell for the last …

I see your point.

MJBrutus on January 9, 2012 at 5:33 PM

jfs756 on January 9, 2012 at 5:19 PM

Look! Up in the sky! It’s a bird. It’s a plane. No, it’s Newt’s Soo-oooper PAC to the rescue!

MJBrutus on January 9, 2012 at 5:35 PM

What do you expect with Perry, Newt, and Huntsman running around attacking free market capitalism?

Swerve22 on January 9, 2012 at 5:42 PM

If Rubio wants to never be elected to public office again, he will not be on any one’s ticket as VP. It is the political kiss of death. Research it.

they lie on January 9, 2012 at 4:34 PM

14 Vice Presidents became President. 5 won election on their own: John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, Martin Van Buren, Ricard Nixon and George H.W. Bush.

galtani on January 9, 2012 at 5:50 PM

acknowledge that not everyone succeeds in the free market.

Philly on January 9, 2012 at 2:48 PM

unless of course you are “too big to fail”…

equanimous on January 9, 2012 at 2:59 PM

If the private sector chooses to bail out “too big to fail”, then great. Distressed companies can survive, but they have to change failed business processes.

I am watching Rick Perry soundbites on Fox. Man, he’s channeling Karl Marx and the Obama campaign. OccuPerry and Newt 99 apparently hate free enterprise. I’m sure Newt can cite articles in the NY Times and Washington Post agreeing with his assertion.

Philly on January 9, 2012 at 6:06 PM

Again, I ask, when was the last time a super rich progressive Pub. born with a silver spoon in his mouth was elected POTUS. I wouldn’t bet the farm on Romney being elected. Historically, the Odds are very much against it.

they lie on January 9, 2012 at 4:32 PM

George H.W.Bush and George W Bush, to answer your question

galtani on January 9, 2012 at 5:24 PM

Teddy Roosevelt too…

jimver on January 9, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Romney will lose by a landslide. Obama and the dems. have perfected the class warfare demon and Oromney is the ready made candidate to use it against. That’s why the dems. are salivating at the prospect of Romney being the nominee. Don’t ever bet on long shots unless you won’t to go broke. That’s the advice Vegas would give you.

Again, I ask, when was the last time a super rich progressive Pub. born with a silver spoon in his mouth was elected POTUS. I wouldn’t bet the farm on Romney being elected. Historically, the Odds are very much against it.

they lie on January 9, 2012 at 4:32 PM

indeed the fact that Gingrich is a super ‘poor’ progressive man who connect so well with the every average Joe must in itself be the best argument to nominate him :)…yeah, I can see how the Dems will be at a loss using the class warfare tactics against a man of poor means and no connections with Wall Street (other than Freddie Mac, but hey, FM is not Wall Street, is it :-) such as Gingrich :)…they will cover themselves in ridicule employing the class warfare thing against Gingrich :-)…as for the rest of Rep bunch, they are too nutty to even consider…not that Gingrich strikes me as of a too sane mind…

Again, I ask, when was the last time a super rich progressive Pub. born with a silver spoon in his mouth was elected POTUS.

the two Bushes and Tedd Roosevelt…

jimver on January 9, 2012 at 7:02 PM

I am watching Rick Perry soundbites on Fox. Man, he’s channeling Karl Marx and the Obama campaign. OccuPerry and Newt 99 apparently hate free enterprise. I’m sure Newt can cite articles in the NY Times and Washington Post agreeing with his assertion.

Philly on January 9, 2012 at 6:06 PM

eer doubted for a second that Gingrich is a crypto-marxist? and a disgusting one at it…

jimver on January 9, 2012 at 7:04 PM

maybe when mitt is prez he can get advice from sununu who to replace ginsburg with since souter is consider to be a conservative in NH. this is what it boils down to

rik on January 9, 2012 at 7:10 PM

If Rubio wants to never be elected to public office again, he will not be on any one’s ticket as VP. It is the political kiss of death. Research it.

they lie on January 9, 2012 at 4:34 PM
14 Vice Presidents became President. 5 won election on their own: John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, Martin Van Buren, Ricard Nixon and George H.W. Bush.

galtani on January 9, 2012 at 5:50 PM

Not a very good track record overall and especially in modern political times. Nixon did not fare well on his first try after serving under Ike who was a pretty likeable POTUS. George H.W.Bush served under the most popular Republican POTUS ever who was a conservative. Fact is, the odds are much much better of getting the party’s nomination and getting elected IF YOU ARE NOT the VP candidate on some one’s ticket. I did not say it had never been done. I said the odds were not good and they are not. The odds are even worse for those VP candidates who end up on a losing ticket.

they lie on January 9, 2012 at 7:27 PM

It’s Floriduhhhh. A state full of Casey Anthonys, Crackers, Geriatric Transplants, and other tools.

The state will probably break for Vermin Supreme.

CorporatePiggy on January 9, 2012 at 2:40 PM

It’s also home to large urban areas such as West Palm Beach, Ft. Lauderdale, Orlando, and Tampa, with sizable populations of Jewish voters who are disenchanted with Obama.

Then there’s the Space Coast where thousands have lost their jobs, and many their businesses, because of Obama’s scaling back of the space program.

And let’s not forget that paltry little stretch of real estate on the south east coast known as Miami Beach, home to the “rich and famous” beautiful people (SoBe) where many no longer think Obama is the end all, be all. Not to mention the thousands of wealthy Cuban-American business owners who have a history of voting (R).

Last, but certainly not least, there’s the Florida Keys a.k.a. among South Floridians as, “Gay Pride Central”.

But you just keep phlucking that stereotype chicken, act like you don’t need FL, and see how far that gets you.

Flora Duh on January 9, 2012 at 7:35 PM

they lie on January 9, 2012 at 7:27 PM

Your statement was: If Rubio wants to never be elected to public office again……

galtani on January 9, 2012 at 7:45 PM

I am in FL for few months and Mittens is already running a lot of ads here. The others had better start soon.

Bullhead on January 9, 2012 at 10:09 PM

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