New Hampshire: Romney 44, Paul 20, Gingrich 8, Santorum 8; Update: Another poll shows Santorum surge

posted at 6:24 pm on January 6, 2012 by Allahpundit

Alternate headline: “Mitt Romney’s dream comes true.” How could these numbers be better for him? He’s creeping up on an outright majority and he has Paul poised to kill Santorum’s and Gingrich’s momentum before South Carolina by taking second comfortably.

But maybe that’s about to change:

Except for Huntsman’s numbers, those post-Iowa figures are nearly identical to what Rasmussen found in his own poll of New Hampshire. Santorum’s obviously getting a bounce here and Paul’s begun to slip, possibly because some of his more tepid supporters were convinced by Iowa that he really doesn’t have a shot at the nomination. The problem for Santorum, as Weigel notes, is that it’s hard to see where he picks up any new votes. Newt and Huntsman probably won’t sink much further than they have, and Paul’s voters are the least likely in the field to drop him for Santorum. There aren’t many undecideds left either. Only Romney’s pool is available to him, and that’s a problem too: If Santorum tacks towards the center to try to peel moderates away from Romney, he jeopardizes his chances with more conservative voters in South Carolina, a state that’s more important to him. Everyone’s expecting a big Romney pile-on tomorrow night but I’m starting to think Santorum and Paul might spend more time attacking each other as they jockey for second place. Besides, Newt will be throwing punches at Romney all night long. No need to waste time following his lead.

Speaking of which, here’s Paul’s new ad carpet-bombing Santorum for being a big-government conservative. You’ll be pleased to know that Paul himself once again refused to rule out a third-party run when asked this afternoon, even as he competes for the Republican nomination. Exit quotation: “I’ll decide that later.”

Update: Just across from NBC, another poll of New Hampshire: Romney 42, Paul 22, Santorum 13, Gingrich 9, Huntsman 9. This one was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, after the Iowa results, so it’s good news for both Santorum fans and Paul fans compared to the post-Iowa results above. Two data points I almost can’t believe:

Romney still underperforms among conservative voters, Tea Party supporters and evangelical Christians in the state — but not to the extent he did in Iowa.

Indeed, he leads among very conservative voters (getting 30 percent to 27 percent for Santorum), Tea Party supporters (35 percent to Paul’s 25 percent) and evangelical Christians (31 percent to Santorum’s 30 percent).

Mitt Romney, true conservative. And then there’s this:

Forty-three percent of likely voters find Paul unacceptable, versus 25 percent who say the same about Santorum.

Meanwhile, 44 percent find Gingrich unacceptable, and 54 percent find Perry unacceptable.

More voters find Rick Perry unacceptable than Ron Paul?


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Comment pages: 1 2

Aslans Girl on January 6, 2012 at 8:11 PM

Thanks, I didn’t know that.

bluefox on January 7, 2012 at 12:03 AM

Intrade:

Obama: 51.9%
Romney 38.8%

I guess the other 56 states aren’t as giddy over Mittens, eh?

Romney is not the nominee yet. Hence the reason for the much lower percentage. Once he secures the nomination, that percentage will increase.

Firecracker729 on January 7, 2012 at 12:32 AM

I don’t see Romney losing in NH although I wish it would happen. I do think it will not be as much of a blowout as the polls are suggesting cuz folks like me who have Vonage or no land lines aren’t getting the nightly 3 dozen polling calls. I have never been undecided 4 days before an election in my life. I wish we could take a mold the good points of them all into one super candidate but alas. It appears the Republican party is going to nominate yet another establishment candidate. how has that woeked out for us? GeorgeH, Dole, McCain….I am going tp pull my hair out!

ksmoola1 on January 7, 2012 at 12:33 AM

Puma for Life on January 6, 2012 at 8:19 PM

After reading Santorum’s record that I linked to, I have no idea why he’s considered Conservative either. He’s Conservative on Abortion(against), Marriage and other social issues from what I can tell.

Rush hasn’t endorsed anyone and never has. Rush will point out criticism that others throw at the various R Candidates tho. He’s done that with Bachmann, Perry etc.

Santorum didn’t have a lot of money and spent most all of his time in Iowa. That Iowa Caucus is suspect in my opinion also. It’s open and Dems/Independents/Republicans can vote. So Dems that have an agenda can vote, Independents and Republicans. It can’t be a true Republican vote therefore. I think some R’s & maybe some Dems voted for Santorum in order to vote against Ron Paul. That’s my opinion.

Santorum probably had some backing. After the Iowa Caucus, he raised more money. I have no idea what work he does, since he lost the PA Senate race. Whether he’s able to continue or for how long and what States, I have no idea.

Ron Paul is great on many issues; the main criticism is his foreign policy positions.

So many factions within the Republican Party; everyone has a different motive for a particular Candidate. Actually, my opinion is too much corruption:-)

bluefox on January 7, 2012 at 12:45 AM

Comment pages: 1 2