Gingrich: On second thought, maybe I will pull off a “great upset” in Iowa

posted at 12:50 pm on January 3, 2012 by Tina Korbe

It’s generally not wise to hype expectations in advance of an election; that makes it extra easy to disappoint. But, by the same token, it’s also a little foolish to depress expectations so greatly that your supporters lose enthusiasm for you. Apparently, Newt Gingrich’s frank admission yesterday that he didn’t think he would win Iowa upset at least one potential supporter. Political Ticker reports:

A precinct captain called in Monday night and told the former speaker, while he was riding on his bus from Cedar Rapids to Davenport, how disappointed he was that Gingrich was essentially counting himself out while he prepared to caucus on the candidate’s behalf.

“I want people to hear you say you’re going to win tonight,” the precinct captain said to Gingrich on the phone.

The former speaker tried to inject the same enthusiasm in his response. “If we do win, it will be an enormous achievement and I will be very deeply in your debt,” he said.

In light of the phone call from the precinct captain, Gingrich did what any politician would do; he eased up on the candor. At an event in Davenport today, Gingrich told supporters he thinks his campaign could pull off “one of the great upsets in the history of the Iowa caucuses.” He then instructed them: “And so I want you to take that attitude into the next 24 hours.” Perhaps he was projecting his own earlier despair onto them; from the sounds of it, it was Gingrich and not they who needed that advice.

At any rate, Gingrich is right: He could pull off a great upset. It’s extremely unlikely, but 41 percent of Iowans who have a first choice still say they could be persuaded to vote for someone else, according to the latest Des Moines Register poll. That’s not insignificant. Nevertheless, if I were Gingrich — or a committed Gingrich fan — I’d be far more concerned to secure the fourth-place slot. If Rick Perry beats out Gingrich for that finish, he’ll carry that momentum into South Carolina.

Meantime, speaking of South Carolina, Michele Bachmann has canceled a couple events there. The campaign says the cancellations were just routine “rescheduling” and the Congresswoman still says she won’t drop out no matter how she finishes tonight — but that remains to be seen.


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Oh my goodness.

Come on Perry!

gophergirl on January 3, 2012 at 12:52 PM

But he said before that he was going to be the nominee!!!

Pride, pride, pride.

There are many things I like about Mr. Gingrich. His puffed up ego isn’t one of them.

Logus on January 3, 2012 at 12:53 PM

Sounds like the Bachmann campaign is having trouble paying for those flights to SC.

El Supreeze.

JohnGalt23 on January 3, 2012 at 12:53 PM

Zero chance. Ron Paul and Mitt Romney reminded the electorate of this guys ghastly past. He is toast.

Jailbreak on January 3, 2012 at 12:54 PM

Come on Perry!

gophergirl on January 3, 2012 at 12:52 PM

2nd that

cmsinaz on January 3, 2012 at 12:54 PM

At any rate, Gingrich is right: He could pull off a great upset. It’s extremely unlikely, but 41 percent of Iowans who have a first choice still say they could be persuaded to vote for someone else, according to the latest Des Moines Register poll.

Perry is going to shock many in a good way tonight.

Lesson: Never ever count the good Governor out.

TheRightMan on January 3, 2012 at 12:54 PM

Wait. What?

What will be the mid-afternoon message?

SlaveDog on January 3, 2012 at 12:55 PM

Irrational people in another blog call this lying.

swamp_yankee on January 3, 2012 at 12:58 PM

Glad to see Newt taking the gloves off.

As I said in another thread, whether Newt wins the candidacy or not, it will be interesting to watch him intellectually eviscerate Romney!

I would also love to see Newt stick it to the Republican establishment and the blowhard pundits.

Sparky5253 on January 3, 2012 at 12:59 PM

SC will be more of a barometer on the candidates than Iowa. We know that a liberal candidtae is going to win in NH, and that is Romney. We know that a conservative is going to do well in SC, and that will be Perry or Santorum. So, SC to me, will be the important state to win. If Romney wins SC, it’s pretty much over.

they lie on January 3, 2012 at 1:00 PM

Irrational people in another blog call this lying.

swamp_yankee on January 3, 2012 at 12:58 PM

Irrational people in another blog call this changing your mind.

portlandon on January 3, 2012 at 1:01 PM

Well, if Newt does drop out, I would bet he will get behind either Santorum or Perry. That doesn’t help Mitt. There will be a conservative challenge to Romney whether the establishment likes it or not.

KickandSwimMom on January 3, 2012 at 1:04 PM

2nd that

cmsinaz on January 3, 2012 at 12:54 PM

:)

gophergirl on January 3, 2012 at 1:04 PM

Newt had to do just a couple of things to stay viable, and one of them was not revert to type and become flaky. But he couldn’t stop himself. So here he is, being a flake. “We’re gonna lose…we’re gonna win.” Sheesh.

Rational Thought on January 3, 2012 at 1:08 PM

The man is losing it.

JPeterman on January 3, 2012 at 1:13 PM

And yet he’d be so much more impressive in a debate with Obama than Perry.

(eyeroll)

Marcus on January 3, 2012 at 1:13 PM

GingBat needs a full mental health workup, stat.

VorDaj on January 3, 2012 at 1:16 PM

And they’ll be coming to take him away, ha ha, he he!

VorDaj on January 3, 2012 at 1:17 PM

This isn’t scorched earth. This isn’t even mowing the lawn.

SlaveDog on January 3, 2012 at 1:19 PM

Twinkle, twinkle, fat old GingBat, how I wonder how you got to the state you’re at.

VorDaj on January 3, 2012 at 1:20 PM

I really hope that Iowans got to know Rick Perry from meeting him . Not how some of the media do in a negative sense.
Rick Perry will be liked by many Americans and can feel he can lead our Country out of deep waters.
People need to find out things for themselves and not follow polls or the media. Decide yourself !!! RICK PERRY 2012
I still like that interview yesterday with Perry and the Politico White House Correspondent. Do you have names, Do you have names!!!
Awesome GO RICK PERRY he is a STRONG LEADER!!!

nancysabet on January 3, 2012 at 1:20 PM

Pretty soon GingBat will be telling Romney, “Get off my lawn!!!”

VorDaj on January 3, 2012 at 1:21 PM

Don’t let the bastards get you down Newt…Keep pushing forward and start attacking Romney mercilessly

georgealbert on January 3, 2012 at 1:21 PM

Awesome GO RICK PERRY he is a… a… a… “Oops”

nancysabet on January 3, 2012 at 1:20 PM

FIFY

E L Frederick (Sniper One) on January 3, 2012 at 1:22 PM

If people want a viable “non-Romney” option in the race until Super Tuesday, they should consider supporting Newt.

Santorum is too much of a dark horse and in debates comes across as whiny to have a legimitate chance at winning the nomination.

And Perry? Well forget about the flaws of his that we are well familiarized with. Let’s assume that he all of a sudden becomes a champion debater and demonstrates an impressive command of Federal policy. He would still be unelectable. You CANNOT oppose the legality of abortion for a raped woman in this country and be elected President.

Paul is bat s–t crazy on foreign policy, etc.

Bachmann….gaffe prone and out of it.

Newt has the intelligence and the drive to fight back into contention and be a challenge to Romney.

Reggie1971 on January 3, 2012 at 1:22 PM

I would pull for Newt but it always seems he is talking down to me. I would prefer he talked down to the left.

Yes, he would be a better debater against Obama. However I am not so sure I would be comfortable with Newt pontificating to the right while kicking the can down the road.

Perry has a point in that he has none of the inside the beltway baggage the others have.

Ear marks indeed.

RAGIN CAJUN on January 3, 2012 at 1:27 PM

Meantime, speaking of South Carolina, Michele Bachmann has canceled a couple events there. The campaign says the cancellations were just routine “rescheduling” and the Congresswoman still says she won’t drop out no matter how she finishes tonight — but that remains to be seen.posted at 12:50 pm on January 3, 2012 by Tina Korbe

Gov. Perry’s SC schedule so far:

The weather is finally winter-ish, but now the South Carolina political heat intensifies. Iowa votes today, and Rick Perry appears to be skipping New Hampshire in order to jet straight here.

The Upstate, however, is not on the itinerary, unless you count Aiken.

The latest from the campaign:

Wednesday, Jan. 4

– 3:30 p.m. – Aiken Main Street walk, The Gun Rack,
213 Richland Avenue West. The walk will begin at The Gun Rack and end at Aiken Municipal Building Conference Center.

– 4:30 p.m. – Aiken town hall meeting, Municipal Building Conference Center, 215 The Alley.

– 6 p.m. – North Augusta meet and greet, Al’s Family Restaurant, 611 Atomic Road.

Thursday, Jan. 5

– 9 a.m. – Lexington meet and greet, Lizard’s Thicket,
4616 Augusta Road, US #1.

– Noon, Orangeburg meet and greet, Duke’s BBQ, 789 Chestnut Street.

– 2 p.m. – Summerville Main Street walk, Guerin’s Pharmacy, 140 South Main Street.

– 4 p.m. – Walterboro Main Street walk, Hiott’s Pharmacy,
373 East Washington Street.

– 5 p.m. – Walterboro meet and greet, Fat Jack’s Grillin’ and Chillin’, 308 Ivanhoe Drive.

Friday, Jan. 6

– 9:30 a.m. – Beaufort meet and greet, Magnolia Bakery,
703 Congress Street.

– 12:15 p.m. – Bluffton meet and greet, Squat & Gobble,
1231 May River Road.

– 1:40 p.m. – Hilton Head Main Street walk, Hilton Head Coligny Plaza, One North Forest Beach Drive.

http://data.greenvilleonline.com/blogs/politics/2012/01/03/wedthursfri-perry-in-s-c/

workingclass artist on January 3, 2012 at 1:28 PM

Perry- The obnoxious Mary Kaye of retail politics. “Get out there and sell me and I’ll give you a pink Cadillac”.

Fletch54 on January 3, 2012 at 1:28 PM

But he said before that he was going to be the nominee!!!

Pride, pride, pride.

There are many things I like about Mr. Gingrich. His puffed up ego isn’t one of them.

Logus on January 3, 2012 at 12:53 PM

Well, what the heck do we want? Enthusiasm and optimism or candor and realism?

Vince on January 3, 2012 at 1:32 PM

KickandSwimMom on January 3, 2012 at 1:04 PM

I think Newt would get behind Perry if he drops out…Santorum can’t raise money and lost his last race.

Perry can raise money. As leader of the RGA he broke fundraising records & matched Romney in 1/2 the time during the first quarter. Once the field narrows Perry’s fundraising will pickup speed.

workingclass artist on January 3, 2012 at 1:32 PM

He would still be unelectable. You CANNOT oppose the legality of abortion for a raped woman in this country and be elected President.
Reggie1971 on January 3, 2012 at 1:22 PM

Against Obama and his failed Economy…Yes The Governor of Texas whose state created 3 out 4 private sector jobs in America can be elected and do so handily.

Gig Em’
Perry 2012

workingclass artist on January 3, 2012 at 1:38 PM

workingclass artist on January 3, 2012 at 1:28 PM

Perry is starting in the small towns. I’m sure he will be in all the state before the vote is cast.I like his start because he will do well with these folks. Probably wanting to get a level of comfort before venturing into the hornets nest. Plus, I don’t think Romney and Nikki Haley will relate well to these folks, so Perry gets good press coverage.

they lie on January 3, 2012 at 1:40 PM

Irrational people in another blog call this lying.

swamp_yankee on January 3, 2012 at 12:58 PM

If you post on that other blog, suggest that those people buy a dictionary.
Just tryin’ to help.

Mimzey on January 3, 2012 at 1:43 PM

Newt totally blew it by dropping the ball by not getting on the ballot in Virgina.

He’s flailing here. He knows he’s toast.

It’s a shame, too because I would have loved to see him debate 0bama and rip him to shreds.

UltimateBob on January 3, 2012 at 1:44 PM

Way to throw your team of volunteers that are working hard on your behalf under the bus by saying you’re not going to win iowa.
How many people want to back a candidate that is a sure loser? I’m willing to bet a lot of votes got switched to a different candidate over that statement alone.

This is why I’m glad Newt is no longer in contention, we’d have an entire campaign of erratic behavior like this, but Newt just can’t help himself, he loves to hear his own voice.

BradTank on January 3, 2012 at 1:56 PM

As a conservative I’m embarrassed to even be associated with the name Newt Gingrich. What a horrible candidate.

Ruiner on January 3, 2012 at 2:03 PM

If Republicans give me Romney as the Republican candidate, I’m going to help Democrats give us all another 4 years of Obama. NO MORE McCAIN’s!

Karmi on January 3, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Against Obama and his failed Economy…Yes The Governor of Texas whose state created 3 out 4 private sector jobs in America can be elected and do so handily.

Gig Em’
Perry 2012

workingclass artist on January 3, 2012 at 1:38 PM

Nope. Such a fringe position on such a personal issue would be just about the only thing that could rescue Obama from his economic record. He’ll draw attention from the economy by running ads that will scare the hell out of young women and drive them to the polls.

Reggie1971 on January 3, 2012 at 2:11 PM

Moderate Man’s Iowa Caucus Estimate

20% Ron Paul
19% Mitt Romney
18% Rick Santorum
15% Newt Gingrich
15% Rick Perry
5% Michelle Bachmann
8% Other/Undecided

ModerateMan on January 3, 2012 at 2:14 PM

they lie on January 3, 2012 at 1:40 PM

Yeah…Perry campaigned in every county in Texas in his last race. He likes meeting voters & voters like him when they meet him.

“Perry is polling in fifth place among seven candidates, with support of 11 percent of likely caucus-goers.

But he also raised the most money in the third quarter — $17.2 million — and is Iowa’s leader in paid political advertising.

Perry and his super PAC, Make Us Great Again, ran 6,413 ads costing $1.9 million in the Des Moines and Cedar Rapids markets in the past two months.

“Perry has a ton of cash. He’s clearly making a play for the evangelical vote,” Rants said. “Everyone has written off Rick Perry, but I think it might be a little too early to do that. He may be staging a comeback.”

The Texas governor stood at the top of the polls after his Aug. 13 entrance into the race, but stumbled after several poor debate performances.

Perry “has lots of money, looks great on TV, is the only one who’s positive and seems happy and is enjoying the debates,” Schmidt said. “He’s also the only one who you’d like to grill out with and have a beer with.”

The social conservative, evangelical or “religious right” vote has been split this year among Santorum, Perry and Bachmann.

Dianne Bystrom, director of the Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics at Iowa StateUniversity, said she doesn’t see those three winning the Iowa caucuses, but one of them could emerge as the favorite among social conservatives.

“I do think some people are giving Perry a second look,” she said…”

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/article/perry-santorum-could-pull-iowa-upsets/288336

Gig Em’
Perry 2012

workingclass artist on January 3, 2012 at 2:14 PM

Nope. Such a fringe position on such a personal issue would be just about the only thing that could rescue Obama from his economic record. He’ll draw attention from the economy by running ads that will scare the hell out of young women and drive them to the polls.

Reggie1971 on January 3, 2012 at 2:11 PM

Wrong

Voters will vote for jobs…and that includes women.

Obama will be suck with is fringe issues and his fringe support. The rest of America will vote for Perry cause he can deliver on the economy just like they did in 1980.

workingclass artist on January 3, 2012 at 2:18 PM

But, by the same token, it’s also a little foolish to depress expectations so greatly that your supporters lose enthusiasm for you.

SARAH ARE YOU LISTENING

Sachiko on January 3, 2012 at 2:19 PM

Updated Moderate Man’s Iowa Caucus Estimate

record ~150,000 voters

20% Ron Paul 30,500
19% Mitt Romney 30,000
18% Rick Santorum 27,000
15% Newt Gingrich 22,600
15% Rick Perry 22,400
5% Michelle Bachmann 7,500
8% Other/Undecided 12,000

ModerateMan on January 3, 2012 at 2:19 PM

Rush is gushin’ on Rick Perry saying he looks great on TV.

workingclass artist on January 3, 2012 at 2:20 PM

I hope some do drop out because the sooner us anti-Romney people can get behind one candidate, the better. That could possibly give the anti-Romney candidate 50-60%, Romney stays at 25% with Paul 20-25%. Believe me, Romney is no hurry for anyone to drop out just yet. The next best thing to Romney losing the nomination is a brokered convention.

lea on January 3, 2012 at 2:22 PM

Newt had to do just a couple of things to stay viable, and one of them was not revert to type and become flaky. But he couldn’t stop himself. So here he is, being a flake. “We’re gonna lose…we’re gonna win.” Sheesh.

Rational Thought on January 3, 2012 at 1:08 PM

I’m speechless . . . that is NOT an easy thing to do. But it accurately sums up the situation to a tee.

Perfect summation.

Trochilus on January 3, 2012 at 2:23 PM

Rush just played Perry’s politico takedown…Yeah Rush dug it.

He said Perry makes him smile…and laugh in a good way.

workingclass artist on January 3, 2012 at 2:24 PM

There is apparently no filter between Newt’s brain and his mouth. He spouts off whatever fleetingly crosses his mind.

Clark1 on January 3, 2012 at 2:25 PM

Iowa First In The Nation Prepares To Saddle Up & We’re Off To The Races. Some video of Imus Guest This Morning, James Carville and Frank Luntz both humping the inevitability of a Romney nomination, and simultaneously pointing how weak a candidate he will be in the General.

Dr Evil on January 3, 2012 at 2:28 PM

Americans concerned with our out of control spiraling National Debt have only one clear choice at the polls and that remains an iron clad fact.

Newt 2012.

DannoJyd on January 3, 2012 at 2:39 PM

they lie on January 3, 2012 at 1:40 PM

Forgot to add that The state of Texas is divided into 254 counties, more than any other U.S. state Perry campaigned in everyone of them in his last race.

From the least populated Loving – 67 to
the most populated Harris – 3,693,050

workingclass artist on January 3, 2012 at 2:39 PM

Iowa First In The Nation Prepares To Saddle Up & We’re Off To The Races. Some video of Imus Guest This Morning, James Carville and Frank Luntz both humping the inevitability of a Romney nomination, and simultaneously pointing how weak a candidate he will be in the General.

Dr Evil on January 3, 2012 at 2:28 PM

How on Earth did you make it through that show?

workingclass artist on January 3, 2012 at 3:05 PM

Newt!…P L E A S E…just shut-up!

KOOLAID2 on January 3, 2012 at 3:12 PM

If Republicans give me Romney as the Republican candidate, I’m going to help Democrats give us all another 4 years of Obama. NO MORE McCAIN’s!

Karmi on January 3, 2012 at 2:07 PMbrilliant idea Karmi.

Here is another one:

The normal (center right)people of both the Democratic and Republican party form a centrist party and free themselves from the progressive liberal high tax, high spending/deficit wackos in the D party and the my way or the highway, government sucks,no taxes, no spending ultra right wing conservatives of the Republican Party. Such a formula would ensure a balanced approach to America’s problems of high unemployment and high deficits. Although we would become like Europe (which is a shame) IMHO the two party system does not work when you have a significant right wing that will sabatoge their own parties nominee and would elect a the devil out of spite and not having their Newt!

Such a party would eventually rule the country for decades with balanced budgets and economic growth.

Natebo on January 3, 2012 at 3:26 PM

Since Gingrich has reverted to being the nasty little man we all knew and avoided, the chance the undecided will break his way is about the same as they will break for Ron Paul: ZERO, except for those who suffer a hard knock in the head.

Santorum is surging at the perfect time for Iowa, so it is likely he will reap some of the late deciders, as will Romney with those who acquiesce to his electability argument. The other candidate who has been actually drawing crowds of Iowans (Paul’s campaign is full of out-of-state supporters who got on the bus after being promised a Grateful Dead concert, and holds rallies at high schools where the adoring fans can’t vote) has been Perry.

My bold and courageous prediction:

1. Romney
2. Santorum
3/4. Perry, Paul
5. Gingrich
6. Bachmann

Adjoran on January 3, 2012 at 4:05 PM