Tis the season for predictions
posted at 4:00 pm on December 31, 2011 by Jazz Shaw
No end of the year political shindig would be complete without pundits and prophets gazing into the chicken entrails and letting us know what we should expect in the year to come. Given the fact that we so rarely see end of the year, “Look how well I did last December” articles, you might not want to invest too heavily based on these. But a quick look around should provide us with some amusement if nothing else.
Over at The Sun Journal in Maine, self styled psychic Vicki Monroe was asked to take a crack at the task. Vicki is described as someone who, “has been seeing spirits for most of her life. She ignored them for years, until one day she embraced her psychic side.” Her thoughts:
* Obama will win re-election. Others won’t.
“They’re saying in the election what’s going to surprise many is that a lot of those Republicans that were voted in … will be voted out,” Monroe said.
* The American economy will improve, and job security will increase.
* Moods will improve, both nationally and worldwide.
“Everything is going to change. Basically on a global scale we will start looking at things in a positive way,” Monroe said. “What the Mayans said as the end of the world is the end of the world as (far as) nations having to beat each other (to be) No. 1.”
So… OK then! Moving along, we have Kara Miller at the Boston Globe checking in. She takes a different approach, predicting that Mitt Romney will win not only the GOP nomination, but the presidency. And then she provides the mechanism for how he defeats Obama, which is where things get a little weird.
Massachusetts will become the central issue in the 2012 campaign. Not to be parochial (OK, maybe a little), I believe that this state will prove to be Romney’s greatest hurdle and greatest asset.
Right now, Massachusetts health care features prominently in Republican attacks on Romney, but if the former Governor can nab the nomination, his Massachusetts experience could prove to be a tremendous strength. (“I know how to get both sides of the aisle to work together; heck, I was governor of Massachusetts!”)
Wouldn’t it be ironic if Massachusetts propelled Mitt Romney to the presidency? I wouldn’t rule it out.
So… that happened. James Poulos checks in at The Daily Caller with some tongue in cheek predictions. He too feels that Mitt Romney will be the nominee and the next president, but his foresight about the VP nominee may come as a shock.
In a surprise, Romney will turn for his running mate to David Petraeus, and Petraeus will accept. Obama’s foreign policy advantage will be gone. Panic over the stunning whiteness and maleness of the ticket will prove misguided; in every other way Petraeus is everything Romney is not. Marco Rubio makes Republicans feel great about themselves, but Petraeus will make Americans feel like the adult has finally walked into the room. The day the first Romney/Petraeus bumper stickers go out will be the last time anyone ever mentions Condoleezza Rice.
Back to the other side of the aisle, The Daily Beast has a collection of prognosticators offering up their vision of things to come. We’ll start with a couple items from Michael Tomasky:
3. Bashar al-Assad will fall. The Free Syrian Army will march triumphantly into Damascus in March. More incredibly still, everything will go swimmingly! Syria will become a more-or-less functioning democracy within the year. Hizbullah members will start cashing in their 401K’s.
5. The Supreme Court will uphold the Affordable Care Act on a 5-4 vote, but here’s the twist: Kennedy will vote against it, and Scalia will vote for it! Scalia’s vote to uphold, consistent with his previous commerce-clause thinking, will mute a lot of the howling, and health care won’t be much of a campaign issue.
9. Obama wins reelection fairly easily; Democrats hold the Senate, Republicans hold the House, but the margins of majority narrow in both chambers.
And these stunners from Paul Begala:
1. Herman Cain will get a contract with Fox News Channel. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich will not.
2. A third-party candidate will get more than 7 percent of the popular vote for president.
3. John Boehner will be toppled from his post as speaker before the 2012 elections.
4. Democrats will re-take the House, hold the Senate and Obama will be reelected; a stunning rebuke of the Tea Party.
There’s more at each of the links, so have fun with them. And since I don’t suffer from the curse of embarrassment when proven wrong, (it wears off after a few decades of being so wrong so often) allow me to pitch a few of my own. (Some serious, some not so much.) Feel free to add yours.
1. Mitt Romney effectively wraps up the nomination by the second week in February. All across America, millions of Republicans and conservatives shuffle their feet and mumble something about how everyone always knew it was going to happen and try to drink enough to forget the other candidates they backed. In an ironic twist, the sudden surge in alcohol sales provides a jolt to the economy, lowering unemployment by two tenths of a percent and boosting Obama’s approval rating back to 48%.
2. Mitt selects Marco Rubio as his running mate and goes on to be elected President of the United States. But it’s a much closer election than many think, nearly as close as the 2000 race, and comes down to the final vote count in Ohio. We don’t find out the eventual winner until it is decided by the Supreme Court. Unable to bear the specter of reliving the nightmare all over again, Senator Al Franken falls into a fit of despair, flies to Cleveland and sets himself on fire like that fruit vendor guy who started the Arab Spring.
3. The GOP takes the majority in the Senate, but don’t come anywhere near 60 seats so the chamber remains effectively deadlocked. They retain control of the House, but the DNC runs a devastatingly effective mediscare campaign in close districts across the nation and pick up a number of seats. The closely divided House includes a number of moderate Republicans, meaning that President Romney doesn’t have any sort of free glide path to implement whatever he wants. Gridlock continues and the popularity of Congress finally reaches the statistical margin of error at 3%.
4. John Boehner retains his speakership to the annoyance of pundits everywhere who predicted that Eric Cantor would have put a lethal dose of Ex-Lax in his chocolate Easter Bunny by then. In an unrelated story, Nancy Pelosi misses several weeks of the Spring session due to uncontrollable diarrhea.
5. Twenty years too late, in March, we finally get cost effective, mass produced flying cars. Unfortunately, the TSA immediately places so many restrictions on getting into one that most people throw up their hands in frustration and go back to driving their SUVs. A few finally do get hold of them by August, though. The following day the GEICO Gecko is killed while filming their first flying car insurance advertisement when the AFLAC duck gets sucked into his car’s engine. Ironically, the flaming wreckage crashes into the State Farm HQ building, burning it to the ground. Conspiracy theories mount when a YouTube video of the incident shows that annoying woman named Flo from Progressive’s ads chuckling evilly near the crash site.
6. New, stricter immigration laws survive all court challenges and go into effect in every state which passed them. In a related story, McDonald’s moves the Big Mac to the dollar menu. Unless you want it with tomato. In which case it’s $11.99
7. Yet another Must-Have smart phone will be released… precisely two days after you finally break down and buy the current one. It incorporates all the functions of the Kindle so you can now read books on it as well. Related: Chris Matthews writes yet another book which none of you download to the new device and virtually nobody reads outside of his immediate family and the staff at MSNBC.
8. Some areas of the Earth will experience dramatic, violent weather, immediately prompting Al Gore to make millions of additional dollars. A series of violent tornadoes surprise everyone by occurring in a place known as “Tornado Ally” which are then blamed on the Keystone XL pipeline, even though construction has still not begun on it. Obama immediately cancels Keystone XL yet again, gaining a three point bump in popularity among self described “Eco-warriors.”
9. The date of the Mayan apocalypse in December will come and go. The families of suicide cult members will scramble to think up less embarrassing things to write on their grave markers. Unlike Harold Camping, however, the Mayans do not reappear to move the date back to March of 2013.
10. Hot Air will hire Rick Perry as a guest blogger after changing its name officially to Hot Gas, and remains the most highly trafficked, popular conservative blog on the planet.
UPDATE: Doug Mataconis tosses in his own predictions for 2012 in a far more serious nature. A few of the more provocative offerings:
Mitt Romney will select Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell as his Vice-Presidential running mate, although much of the pre-convention press coverage will involve speculation about Chris Christie
Chris Christie will be the keynote speaker at the Republican National Convention
The Supreme Court will strike down Arizona’s immigration law
Jon Corzine will be indicted for activities related to the collapse of MF Global
There will be no indictments, resignations, or attempts at impeachment related to the “Fast & Furious” scandal
Tensions in the Persian Gulf will increase, with at least one incident involving exchanges of fire between an American naval vessel and Iranian forces
Of course, Doug also picks the Packers to win the Superbowl, so it’s probably all a load of Dingo’s kidneys.
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Jazz thinks Stuart Stevens is a serious person. Bless his heart.
steebo77 on April 6, 2013 at 11:39 AM
Your idea is stupid too… the problem isn’t who is moderating the debates but the idea that debates need moderators to begin with.
Just set a debate topic and let the candidates speak on their own… and then let them ask questions to each other.
ninjapirate on April 6, 2013 at 11:40 AM
So far the Rs are proving to be LESS SMART on so many levels.
CoffeeLover on April 6, 2013 at 11:41 AM
The 2016 primary is a bit unusual in that there is a clear top-tier of candidates (whoever runs from the Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie group.) As a result, it’s likely to be easier to control the debate process if they can be convinced that’s in their best interest to limit appearances.
Mister Mets on April 6, 2013 at 11:42 AM
Nevermind… I just skimmed over and I thought your entire idea was have Hugh Hewitt et al moderate the debates…
I think we need to just do Lincoln Douglas the whole way though… just have random drawings to keep the debates small at the beginning.
ninjapirate on April 6, 2013 at 11:42 AM
That’s a great idea. I’d also say that each candidate should be given equal speaking time, to use as they wish – give them a button to activate their microphone, and cut it off permanently when they’ve run out of allotted time. If one guy wants to talk for 10 minutes on a single topic and then have no time for any other exchanges, let him.
Inkblots on April 6, 2013 at 11:44 AM
How is this any different from a series of interviews? Presumably, the candidates will be engaging in more than enough of those?
The emphasis on policy proposals is a bit problematic since it ignores other things that will determine whether someone can be an effective President, such as their accomplishments in the past. In a discussion that is just about policy, there’s nothing to distinguish a failed state legislator from a popular Governor.
Mister Mets on April 6, 2013 at 11:45 AM
I say run a tournament of one-on-one debates.
Count to 10 on April 6, 2013 at 11:50 AM
Imagine Candy Crowley moderating the Lincoln-Douglas debates, and therein lies the problem…
Khun Joe on April 6, 2013 at 11:50 AM
Sounds good.
Count to 10 on April 6, 2013 at 11:51 AM
I agree with Jazz, Republicans are running to be the Republican NOMINEE not the DEMOCRAT Party nominee. I don’t get why they want to appear on Democrat news. If they want to go on ONE big cable news it should just be Foxnews moderated by Hannity and Erick Erickson.
Rush should also have his own debate forum. Republicans should just stick with going on blogs and conservative places like Glenn Beck.
No MORE going to debate hosted by Marxist.
BroncosRock on April 6, 2013 at 11:52 AM
From what I remember, the moderators of Lincoln-Douglas debate don’t get to ask questions. It’s a strait up one-on-one point and counterpoint about a single topic.
Count to 10 on April 6, 2013 at 11:53 AM
How about a radio debate on Rush’s show?
Count to 10 on April 6, 2013 at 11:54 AM
How about duct taping the mouths of the leftard moderators and let the candidates talk?
Old Country Boy on April 6, 2013 at 11:55 AM
A new way to handle primary debates…..
Don’t listen to ANYONE connected to the failed gop that has had anything to do with any national election since 1988.
Limited government Conservative values haven’t been on the ballot since 1984 (and to be honest that wasn’t really smaller government). It at least had the veneer of having someone at the head that preached it constantly (and appeared to believe it).
PappyD61 on April 6, 2013 at 12:02 PM
View the DOTUS and all his glory (his fundamentally transformed United States of America) here.
http://glennhenson.files.wordpress.com/2011/04/image001-obama.jpg
2017 here we come.
PappyD61 on April 6, 2013 at 12:11 PM
I would love to see mark levin moderate a debate.
karenhasfreedom on April 6, 2013 at 12:12 PM
Surprised no one suggested the Republican candidates stand silently on the stage while the liberal media debates how bad each Republican candidate is compared the the Democrat running for office.
;-)
albill on April 6, 2013 at 12:12 PM
Awesome picture. That needs to be used in campaign ads next year to help dethrone Reid in the senate.
karenhasfreedom on April 6, 2013 at 12:14 PM
It is about time the GOP did what the Democrats do. Hire moderators that share the philosophy. We simply are not interested in Stephanopolis’s delusional presumptions.
pat on April 6, 2013 at 12:16 PM
Nice article Jazz Shaw..You made some very valid points..:)
Dire Straits on April 6, 2013 at 12:30 PM
Hear!..Hear!..:)
Dire Straits on April 6, 2013 at 12:31 PM
You’d think this would be the easy part, but no…… *shakes head*
GWB on April 6, 2013 at 12:41 PM
A version of this scenario is what we saw over and over ad infinitum in 2012. If Republicans allow this outrage to be repeated … They. Will. Lose. Again. And deserve it.
marybel on April 6, 2013 at 12:49 PM
The first thing I would do is refuse to have any debate on CNN. After Candy Crowley set Mitt Romney up there is no reason to give that network any recognition until such time as they recognize the harm they did and rectify the situation.
bflat879 on April 6, 2013 at 12:53 PM
No political circus would be complete without Mr. “Etch-a-Sketch,” Stevens, Andrea Saul, Mike Murphy, Kevin Madden, Alex Castellanos, Ed Gillespie or the rest of the clowns from Team Romney.
bw222 on April 6, 2013 at 12:59 PM
There have been some watchable formats that differed greatly from the ‘stand around the stage as targets’ venue.
Huckabee did a very good job with the candidates and they each got to answer questions but on their own, no back and forth, just state your position without knowing what anyone else had said before that.
The Value Voters Summit is, perhaps, one of the best venues that has happened and is a very good format style as a table-talk discussion not a ‘please indict yourself for the moderator’ junk we normally get.
Then there is always the strange concepts of asking the campaigns to each submit moderators and put their names into a hat and pick out two and then go to an online venue for this stuff.
Or ask Brian Lamb to host them on CSPAN with someone on the clock to cut off microphones.
Anything but the last two go-arounds all over again.
ajacksonian on April 6, 2013 at 1:02 PM
But, does anyone think Jazz is a serious person? Doubtful.
bw222 on April 6, 2013 at 1:03 PM
Geraghty and Erickson are the only ones from that list that aren’t total RINOs and Erickson is a complete jerk.
bw222 on April 6, 2013 at 1:08 PM
I’ve always been a proponent of the Lincoln-Douglas format with moderators serving only time-keeping functions. That just isn’t practical with eight debaters. Jazz’ suggestion of 15-minute segments would yield far more substance than the current system, but I wonder if the lack of confrontation would cause the networks to lost interest in covering them.
It is insane to allow the media to control the selection process for the Republican nomination. They are not neutral brokers, but active enemies of our side and agents for the other side.
Adjoran on April 6, 2013 at 1:14 PM
Here’s an idea: how about having real debates that force the candidates to actually answer the question by ADDRESSING THE ISSUE?! And stop allowing them to drone on and on about anything but the issue. O/T a bit, but how about fielding candidates with iron balls instead of the shriveled little ones the dweebs we now see seem to possess? And clear the field of ANYBODY who was even the slightest associated with the last election. Fresh meat is what we need.
HiJack on April 6, 2013 at 1:50 PM
At this stage the only near-”absolute” I think that needs to be corrected is a new way of picking moderators.
No more hostile lib/pro Dem questioners who live for the chance to embarrass and marginalize GOP candidates…ever. And no wire hangars either!
Sacramento on April 6, 2013 at 1:53 PM
Nein, nein, nein
Schadenfreude on April 6, 2013 at 2:20 PM
HiJack on April 6, 2013 at 1:50 PM
+1
Schadenfreude on April 6, 2013 at 2:21 PM
There need to be some debates.You can’t let candidates just get away with spouting their ideas unchallenged.And debates are good practice for the 3 in the general against the Dem candidate.Under no circumstances should any GOP candidate agree to appear onstage with a liberal moderator,and this should be insisted upon in advance by having each candidate take a pledge not to do so.If the networks want to host a debate they will provide a conservative moderator.Lastly,the sheer number of debates was ridiculous.Limit them to one each on economic policy,social issues,and foreign policy.
redware on April 6, 2013 at 2:30 PM
Maybe your problem is the answers, not the questions.
If your argument is sound, why should it matter how it gets asked… a candidate is interviewing to be president of the united states, and they’re afraid of MSNBC?
triple on April 6, 2013 at 3:32 PM
…someone should insist on it!
KOOLAID2 on April 6, 2013 at 4:20 PM
I think the moderators should be Michelle and Hussein official jock holders from the white house staff.
fair and balanced
tom daschle concerned on April 6, 2013 at 4:35 PM
I am thinking we should bring back “Win Ben Stein’s Money” to weed out the unprepared.
Jimmy Kimmel can’t be any more partisan than Candy Crowley, and far more intelligent and easy on the eye’s to boot.
Snowblind on April 6, 2013 at 4:52 PM