NBC/Marist IA poll: Romney 23, Paul 21, Santorum 15

posted at 8:55 am on December 30, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

In the last few days before the Iowa caucus, one would expect the polling to get chaotic and inconsistent, given the nature of caucusing and the interference of the holidays.  That’s what makes today’s NBC/Marist poll so intriguing — it’s practically a carbon copy of yesterday’s Rasmussen poll.  Both polls have Mitt Romney and Ron Paul at a virtual tie at the top, and Rick Santorum making a big move into third place:

A new NBC-Marist poll confirms that with the caucuses four days away former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is the frontrunner in Iowa (with Texas Rep. Ron Paul close on his heels), while former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum is experiencing a late-in-the-game surge.

Romney and Paul are battling for the top spot, winning the loyalty of 23 percent and 21 percent of likely caucus-goers, respectively. The survey finds Santorum at 15 percent, a jump from 6 percent over the last month. The caucuses are Jan. 3.

At the beginning of the month in this NBC/Marist series, Romney and Paul tied at 19, while Santorum languished at 6% among likely voters.  Both sets of numbers included leaners, which only dropped the undecided respondents from 12% to 7%, and boosted Ron Paul more than anyone else (two points to one for both Romney and Santorum).  Newt Gingrich has seen his support drop by more than half in the same period, from 28% to 13%, while Rick Perry rose from 10% to 14% to finish just behind Santorum.  Michele Bachmann lost a point this month, essentially treading water near the bottom of the pack.

In the second-choice category, Perry finished second to Romney, 21/20, with Santorum in third at 15%.  That’s almost double what both Perry and Santorum had at the beginning of the month, but Romney’s second-choice support has grown, too.  Most of that came from Herman Cain’s former second-choice support as well as a significant decline for Gingrich, who at 13% still has an edge over Paul’s 9%.  That figure seems to indicate that Paul’s support in the caucuses is shallow indeed; he’s gotten all of the support he can muster at this point.  Any late breaking decisions by voters will favor Romney, Perry, and Santorum most as voters move away from other candidates.

I think it’s safe to say that NBC/Marist and Rasmussen have a good handle on what the race in Iowa looks like this week.  We’ll see what Iowans think by Tuesday.  One key Iowan still hasn’t made up his mind, but has begun to say what he can abide, at least — and what he can’t:

Steve King would be warmly welcomed onto any of the campaign buses crisscrossing Iowa in the homestretch before Tuesday’s caucuses, but he spent Thursday at his home in the state’s conservative northwest.

The influential congressman’s position on the sidelines epitomizes the failure of Iowa’s abundant social conservatives to unite behind one candidate who could overtake Mitt Romney, widely distrusted because of his Mormonism and previous support for abortion and gay rights. King expected to settle on a candidate in September or October. He didn’t. …

Erick Erickson, the popular conservative blogger for RedState, mocked Santorum’s rise to third place in the poll, noting the former Pennsylvania senator’s threadbare campaign outside of Iowa. That’s was Mike Huckabee’s problem after Iowa’s social conservatives put him over the top in the 2008 caucuses. “No Surprise, Iowa Social Conservatives Are About to Shoot Us All in the Foot Again,” read the headline on Erickson’s post about the new poll. A Santorum surge, Erickson wrote, means Romney is likely to win the nomination.

That prospect doesn’t bother King, who pointed to Romney’s “exemplary family life” with his wife of 42 years and five sons. “He has more children and fewer vices than I have, so how can I criticize him?” King said, in what could be viewed as an appeal to social conservatives to come to terms with Romney’s likely success. “I could do business with Mitt Romney. I could do business with any of these candidates.”

Actually, there is one candidate whose foreign policy position troubles King far more than Romney’s waffling on abortion. Ron Paul advocates pulling all American troops out of foreign countries as part of a massive military disengagement. “That would be a calamity,” King said. He also worries that a Paul victory in the Iowa caucuses would diminish the state’s status because the quirky libertarian is so unlikely to win the nomination.

I don’t think I ever got a chance to post an interview I conducted with Rep. King before the debate in Des Moines on December 10th, so now seems like a good time to do so.  King clearly wants to find a candidate he feels comfortable in endorsing, and his endorsement is probably the one left on the table that could still make some difference, but just as was three weeks ago, King still hasn’t found the right fit.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2 3 4

So being anti-gay marriage makes him a statist in regards to social issues?

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 10:51 AM

Ron Paul for President……the crazy, demented, senior, lunatic who has a more dangerous foreign policy that Obama!

Sparky5253 on December 30, 2011 at 10:50 AM

The truly unfortunate thing about Ron Paul’s run this time is that I think that he may be doing real damage to Rand Paul’s political ambitions.

besser tot als rot on December 30, 2011 at 10:51 AM

Santorum who??? Give me a break.
Perry is the true conservative in the race. He has an 11 proven record as Gov. of Texas, with Balanced budgets and average income soaring. A dedicated family man with none of the baggage of the other candidates. He will provide a clear contrast to President Obama on Healthcare, energy policy, immigration, Foreign policy, and the biggest one to me his faith in America and his belief that we are an exceptional country and our best days are always out there ahead of us for us to strive for. This country has been through dark economic times before, but it was the belief of the American people that we can and will survive and do better that has always pulled us through. President Obama doesn’t have that faith in America, Rick Perry does! Vote for a man who truly believes in our country again, vote Rick Perry!

nancysabet on December 30, 2011 at 10:53 AM

Common Sense Floridian,

I think Perry has recovered well these last few weeks, he’s a different candidate. Once he wins the nomination, he’ll have the full backing of the party and we could probably get him a slew of briallant debate coaches.

Still, the debates will boil down to one simple question: Are you better off than you were four years ago?

Why am I still on his train? It’ simple, because the small business I work for here in Texas reinstated profit sharing after a few years in the red (due to the rough economy.) I attribute that to good management both at our company and due to the pro-business policies we have in place here in our state. I want this kind of thing to sweep through our country. I want people back at work and gaffs aside, Rick Perry has the record to back it up.

Rick Perry / Condi Rice 2012

Conger on December 30, 2011 at 10:53 AM

It’s interesting there isn’t a crosstabs on that poll,

narciso on December 30, 2011 at 10:53 AM

As I said in another thread, my problem isn’t with Santorum on economics so much as on his willingness to use strong government to dictate large areas of social policy.

besser tot als rot on December 30, 2011 at 10:50 AM

Exactly!

I consider myself a strong social conservative but I will take the candidate (Perry) that wants to make Govt. inconsequential in my life over the statists (Santorum and Gingrich) that want to keep Govt. big but use it to conduct their own right-wing engineering.

TheRightMan on December 30, 2011 at 10:54 AM

Nah, what Erickson and other Perry SuperFans are doing is a hatchet job on Santy because he’s a problem for Perry in Iowa and South Carolina.

They are trying to tear down Santy rather than make a positive case for Perry.

Never heard anybody call Santy a statist until he showed up in the polls in Iowa above Perry and the Perry fans are going nuts with this talking point now.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 10:54 AM

In Ron Pauls 20+ year political career, he has had the luxury of having his cake and eating it too.

He likes being the gadfly. He doesn’t have a clue about leadership.

We’ll soon see if he walks the walk. I say no.

WisRich on December 30, 2011 at 10:46 AM

Ron Paul is the proverbial dog eternally chasing the car.
What will he do when he catches it? End up with a flat face like a cartoon character.

cane_loader on December 30, 2011 at 10:54 AM

Hmmmm. In 2008, John McCain takes fourth place in the Iowa caucus and goes on to win the Republican nomination. Mike Huckabee wins Iowa with 34%. Despite winning a number of additional contests, Huckabee withdraws his candidacy after getting trounced in Texas, where he expected to win. Although there is some talk that Huckabee will be chosen as McCain’s running mate, it soon becomes obvious that he has no leverage, and plays an almost nondescript role in McCain’s campaign. When Huckabee floats the idea of running again in 2012, the party bosses and money men sit him down and explain to him in no uncertain terms why he should keep his Fox gig.

That’s the story of Mike Huckabee, a far more intelligent, articulate, and accomplished candidate than Rick Santorum. I think it is pretty easy to guess what is going to happen to Rick after Iowa.

Mr. Arkadin on December 30, 2011 at 10:55 AM

Santorum who?? no record of success!!
I hope any Iowans reading this will seriously consider Perry as their choice! He is the whole Conservative package! Strong Christian Values, strong JOB creating record, willing and able to take on the status quo to bring America back to Greatness! I’m just a Texan who’s had the privilege to live in a state that has benefitted from having Gov. Perry in office…helping us make it through the toughest times in my lifetime a bit better! Please vote Perry…you won’t regret it!

nancysabet on December 30, 2011 at 10:56 AM

In a couple of days we are going to find out if Ron Paul is a paper tiger. Ron Paul is the fly in the establishment republican’s ointment.

Dr Evil on December 30, 2011 at 10:34 AM

Indeed. If he and his supporters can’t override the “raaay-cist” and “Jooo-h8r”-spewing sheeple to win the nomination, it’s all over. He’ll be too old for another go-round and by 2016 there might not be anything left worth being President over.

Paul has been long suppressed by the establishment because of his anti-permawar views…but he has the stage, and now is sink or swim time.

MelonCollie on December 30, 2011 at 10:56 AM

As I said yesterday. Bachmann and Gladys Huntsman gone by the end of next week; Perry and Santorum gone after Romney wins New Hampshire. Newt sticks around to see if he can win So. Carolina and/or Florida. Paul wanders around aimlessly in his bathrobe for a while and leaves but nobody notices.

Trafalgar on December 30, 2011 at 9:11 AM

You seriously think Perry will drop out before South Carolina and/or Texas votes?

*Shakes head in disbelief*

Thank you, Ed and AllahP, the last open registration has flooded Hot Air with political neophytes.

*Sigh*

TheRightMan on December 30, 2011 at 10:56 AM

Never heard anybody call Santy a statist until he showed up in the polls in Iowa above Perry and the Perry fans are going nuts with this talking point now.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 10:54 AM

I’ve been saying the same thing about Santorum as I am saying now since he declared his intention to run for president.

besser tot als rot on December 30, 2011 at 10:57 AM

The Romneybots are worse than the Obamabots. With Obmabots it’s the race card. With Romneybots it’s the Mormon card. I would never vote for Romney because of his liberal ideology, but every time his Marxist lite ideology was opposed, the Mormon card would be played.

Those supporting Romney are the racists. Romney is a white Obama, so the only reason to be voting for Romney is because he’s not black.

they lie on December 30, 2011 at 10:57 AM

Not that I’m calling him a statist now either.

besser tot als rot on December 30, 2011 at 10:57 AM

Erick Erickson will attack the so called “birthers” on his website, but he’s out there calling Rick Santorum a statist? In my mind, that’s just as nutty. He needs to ban himself.

The man sucks at punditry.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 10:57 AM

I consider myself a strong social conservative but I will take the candidate (Perry) that wants to make Govt. inconsequential in my life over the statists (Santorum and Gingrich) that want to keep Govt. big but use it to conduct their own right-wing engineering.

TheRightMan on December 30, 2011 at 10:54 AM

Good for you. I’ve seen way too many right-wingers who ranted against Big Gov’t morning, noon, and night…unless they got to use it to legislate morality by fiat. The hypocrisy is just astounding.

MelonCollie on December 30, 2011 at 10:58 AM

It’s too bad Santy isn’t gay…sounds like he could be our nominee if he was into sodomy. :)

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 10:58 AM

How would Santy prevent you from having gay sex?

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 10:59 AM

Rick Perry / Condi Rice 2012

Conger on December 30, 2011 at 10:53 AM

No Condi Rice. She’s not qualified. No executive experience. The only reason she’s ever mentioned is because of the color of her skin. If we’re going to play the race card with the VP pick, then pick Rubio, because the Hispanic population is bigger than the African-American population.

I would cringe if either were selected.

cane_loader on December 30, 2011 at 10:59 AM

WisRich on December 30, 2011 at 10:46 AM

Iowa caucus results is going to be an Anomaly because of Ron Paul. From what I understand Independents can vote in the Iowa caucus, and all Ron Paul has to do is get out his fringe support from the truthers and OWS crowd. I don’t know how strong those folks numbers are in Iowa? The TEA party folks aren’t going to go in big numbers for Ron Paul IMO. I think Iowa has a healthy TEA party identification.

Michelle Bachmann, and Rick Perry both identify TEA Party. Herman Cain was a popular TEA party favorite. I don’t know a case where Santorum aligned himself with the TEA party? Santorum has always been a social conservative.

Dr Evil on December 30, 2011 at 10:59 AM

Is Santy going to install cameras in everybody’s bedrooms and monitor for gay sex?

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:00 AM

by 2016 there might not be anything left worth being President over.

MelonCollie on December 30, 2011 at 10:56 AM

There’s always other people’s money to steal and spend. That is like a magnet to a politician.

they lie on December 30, 2011 at 11:01 AM

It’s too bad Santy isn’t gay…sounds like he could be our nominee if he was into sodomy. :)

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 10:58 AM

WTF is this supposed to mean? Sheesh. The crap we’re seeing from the noobs.

cane_loader on December 30, 2011 at 11:01 AM

The point is, all you guys harp on with Santorum is the gay stuff.

You are so fricking obsessed with it.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:02 AM

nancysabet on December 30, 2011 at 10:56 AM

Remain strong, nancysabet, and thanks for your support for Gov. Perry.

It is only in the media – including Hot Air – that a candidate rising from single digits to 16% is a momentum but another candidate also rising from single digits to 14% gets hardly a mention.

The media has its Perry memes and has determined that it will only highlight stories that promote those memes.

Should Perry make a gaffe today – expect Hot Air and other news outlets to trumpet it on the front page.

But reports of his campaign stops being jam-packed to the extent that he had to enter through the back door at some locations – hardly gets a mention here.

Perry is attracting over 200 people at each event. Santorum is attracting 10-30 people but, by Jove, it is a Santorumentum whether we like it or not.

LOL…

TheRightMan on December 30, 2011 at 11:02 AM

Paul has been long suppressed by the establishment because of his anti-permawar views…but he has the stage, and now is sink or swim time.

MelonCollie on December 30, 2011 at 10:56 AM

Ah yes, he’s been sppressed! He’s a sitting congressman for heavens sake. Right it’s another conspiracy! Which is it this time? The illuminati? Elves? Garden gnomes? The contrails in the sky that are laced full of anti Ron Paul chemicals placed there by the Mossad? (You know they probably wrote the racist parts of those letters and put them in his newsletter unbeknownst to him)

Did it ever occur to you that his supposed suppression by the “establishment” is not actually supression. Do you think it might just be because he is batshiat crazy?

Minnfidel on December 30, 2011 at 11:03 AM

RightMan,

Why should we trust you to have accurate numbers on crowds at Perry and Santorum events, especially if you prefer Perry?

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:04 AM

I like Santorum, Perry, and Bachmann. I just want a true conservative. Santorum and Perry are both Conservative so I am fine with either.

I do not want liberal Romney or wacky Paul. Obama would love to get Paul.

And when it comes to the debates, I just don’t see them mattering anymore. Conservatives always think the more conservative wins and the liberals think the liberal wins. In the end, the debates can be entertaining like a game, but I don’t see that they make much of a difference. It is not like back in the late 70′s and 80′s, times have changed.

jeffn21 on December 30, 2011 at 11:05 AM

Santorum believes more legislation is needed to cure the ills of the world. Does Santorum want to do away with welfare? Get rid of SS? Where does Santorum draw the line?
aryeung on December 30, 2011 at 10:08 AM
Santorum actually wrote some of the legislation that was instrumental to welfare reform in the 1990s. And who, besides Ron Paul, is actually vocally in favor of abolishing Social Security?
steebo77 on December 30, 2011 at 10:10 AM

Doesn’t it disappoint you that there are no mainstream candidates calling for the end of welfare programs? I’m glad Santorum reformed welfare, but I do not believe he believes welfare is unnecessary.

aryeung on December 30, 2011 at 11:05 AM

Did it ever occur to you that his supposed suppression by the “establishment” is not actually supression. Do you think it might just be because he is batshiat crazy?

Minnfidel on December 30, 2011 at 11:03 AM

BINGO!

they lie on December 30, 2011 at 11:06 AM

I don’t think the others are quick enough on their feet. Romney’s not bad, but he gets flustered, and that will be 0bama’s game plan, for sure.

Just an observation.

cane_loader on December 30, 2011 at 10:51 AM

Huntsman is fast on his feet, the problem is he has a tendency to shoot himself in foot.

Huntsman: They pick corn in Iowa – they pick presidents in New Hampshire LOL!

But if you win the nomination Horatio Hornblower Huntsman, you need the Iowans corn pickers to turn out, and vote for you in the general election…..God love him, he’s peddling as fast as he can.

Dr Evil on December 30, 2011 at 11:06 AM

But reports of his campaign stops being jam-packed to the extent that he had to enter through the back door at some locations – hardly gets a mention here.

Perry is attracting over 200 people at each event. Santorum is attracting 10-30 people but, by Jove, it is a Santorumentum whether we like it or not.

LOL…

TheRightMan on December 30, 2011 at 11:02 AM

I’ve learned more from twitter feeds about Perry’s bus tour than I’ve learned here.

The pictures tell such a different story than polls, bloggers, etc.

I just want the 3rd to get here to see where everything shakes out.

gophergirl on December 30, 2011 at 11:06 AM

The Conservatives MUST choose and solidify with one candidate.

This is what I have been fearing since early on, look at the conservative vote over 45% of the electorate (not counting Paul) yet it is divided over 4 candidates making it irrelevant. CONSERVATIVES WAKE UP. its called divide and conquer. The Repub elites can’t do better than 25% yet Romney stands to take the whole show?

After Iowa we better square up and cull our group or we will spend the next 4yrs either crying in our soup over O’s second term or worse Romney’s compromising and the best will be his not elimination but replacement of Obamacare. Romney has said over and over we must do more than just repeal ocare we must replace it with something to. Wrong wrong wrong.

C-Low on December 30, 2011 at 9:22 AM

I agree, this is the conservative’s dilemma. Instead of flitting around from candidate to candidate we need to unify around one. My preference right now is Newt because I think he’s the most qualified conservative running. Bruised and bloodied as he is after the savagery in Iowa and from the liberal republican media, I think he’ll bounce back as the only viable conservative alternative (hey, that’s a good campaign slogan; Newt;conservative alternative) to Romney.

If that doesn’t happen, I don’t see much hope for beating Romney. I like Santorum, and would support him if he ends up being the last conservative standing, but I don’t think he stands a chance at this late date.

If Newt doesn’t bounce back

IndeCon on December 30, 2011 at 10:25 AM

Oops. Fixed it for myself.

IndeCon on December 30, 2011 at 11:08 AM

RightMan,

Why should we trust you to have accurate numbers on crowds at Perry and Santorum events, especially if you prefer Perry?

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:04 AM

I don’t know maybe because there are pictures of the events all over twitter, the press corps that are following Perry’s bus tour are the ones providing the numbers.

Facts are lovely things.

gophergirl on December 30, 2011 at 11:08 AM

Huntsman would most likely lose Iowa to Obama if he were somehow to get our nomionation, based on that one stupid comment alone. The guy is an idiot.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:08 AM

The point is, all you guys harp on with Santorum is the gay stuff.

You are so fricking obsessed with it.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:02 AM

Geez… why are you trying to spin our opposition of Santorum into issues to do with gays?

Go read this article by EE at Redstate:

Rick Santorum, Earmarxists, and the Pro-Life Statist

An excerpt:

Rick Santorum participated in raiding the federal treasury as an earmarxist, perfectly happy to pork away on Pennsylvania’s behalf. He did not join conservatives who fought against No Child Left Behind. He did not join conservatives who fought against the prescription drug benefit.

Rick Santorum was part of the problem in Washington. He was one of the Republicans the public rejected in 2006. The voters in Pennsylvania rejected him in 2006 because of his and the Republicans’ profligate ways. Along with Tom DeLay, Rick Santorum led the K Street Project, which traded perks for lobbyists for money for the GOP funded with your tax dollars through earmarks and pork projects.

Sure, you can say 2006 was a bad year for Republicans, but in 2006 Rick Santorum fell 18 percentage points behind his Democratic rival and his defeat and terrible campaign can be linked to the loss of four Pennsylvania house seats.

That was not a defeat for Rick Santorum. It was punishment. He is a pro-life statist and I see nothing in his career since leaving Washington that shows he has changed his ways

Where does this say anything about gay stuff?

There are valid criticisms of Santorum and they pertain to his love for Big Govt. He is no fiscal conservative. It has nothing to do with gay stuff.

TheRightMan on December 30, 2011 at 11:08 AM

Paul slip sliding away:

Romney 24, Santorum 17, Paul 14, Gingrich 13, Bachmann 12, Perry 10 #iowa

andy85719 on December 30, 2011 at 11:09 AM

Huntsman: They pick corn in Iowa – they pick presidents in New Hampshire LOL!

Dr Evil on December 30, 2011 at 11:06 AM

Best line of all time!

they lie on December 30, 2011 at 11:09 AM

Dude, you have no idea what statist means if you think voting for No CHild Left Behind makes him a statist.

That’s just idiotic.

He’s been solid on fiscal issues including taxes across the board. These votes are nothing compared to the crap that Paul Ryan has voted for.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:09 AM

The point is, all you guys harp on with Santorum is the gay stuff.

You are so fricking obsessed with it.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:02 AM

That’s because Santorum is well known for his statements regarding gay people as in homosexuality is like bestiality. Do you real think that’s a mainstream point of view?

Santorum has to answer for his statements, and positions as any other candidate he’s not immune to scrutiny.

Dr Evil on December 30, 2011 at 11:09 AM

don’t know maybe because there are pictures of the events all over twitter, the press corps that are following Perry’s bus tour are the ones providing the numbers.

Facts are lovely things.

gophergirl on December 30, 2011 at 11:08 AM

NO offense, but you sound like you want to have Perry’s baby. I trust you to be objective.

I’m not anti-Perry, but I think you are a Perry SuperFan.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:11 AM

He’s been solid on fiscal issues including taxes across the board. These votes are nothing compared to the crap that Paul Ryan has voted for.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:09 AM

I don’t consider Ryan a conservative so comparing him to Santorum who does consider himself a conservative means nothing.

Dr Evil on December 30, 2011 at 11:11 AM

I like Santorum, Perry, and Bachmann. I just want a true conservative. Santorum and Perry are both Conservative so I am fine with either.

Agreed.

Voting for Romney is voting for a well managed decline into Euro-socialism.

Newt? Who the heck knows what you’ll get. The firebrand from 1994? The guy who fought, but mostly lost to Clinton in the mid 90s? Or the guy cuddling up to San Fran Nan to get in on draconian global warming legislation?

And Paul? Seriously? Yes, it would be nice to see candidates much more willing to forcefully demand significant reductions in the size and scope of government, but Paul is a racist conspiracy theorist who doesn’t care in the least about what is ideas and their implementation would mean in practice.

18-1 on December 30, 2011 at 11:12 AM

That’s because Santorum is well known for his statements regarding gay

people as in homosexuality is like bestiality. Do you real think that’s a mainstream point of view?

Santorum has to answer for his statements, and positions as any other candidate he’s not immune to scrutiny.

Dr Evil on December 30, 2011 at 11:09 AM

I don’t care about his views on gay people, to be honest.

I don’t see gay issues as a big issue, especially when the economy sucks and repeal of Obamacare is what matters to a mjority of voters.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:12 AM

NO offense, but you sound like you want to have Perry’s baby. I trust you to be objective.

I’m not anti-Perry, but I think you are a Perry SuperFan.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:11 AM

No I’m not a superfan – I like the guy. If he loses, he loses – I’ll vote for the nominee.

I’m not making this up. Here is the link to the ABC reporter following the bus tour. So unless you are accusing her of being a superfan as well – I think I’ve made my point.

http://twitter.com/ArletteSaenz

gophergirl on December 30, 2011 at 11:13 AM

Do you think it might just be because he is batshiat crazy?

Minnfidel on December 30, 2011 at 11:03 AM

When “batshiat crazy” is defined by the tub-thumping armchair generals as “do anything but invade and continually occupy every Turd-World sandlot we feel like”, then yeah, I could see that!

MelonCollie on December 30, 2011 at 11:14 AM

My picks:

Perry
Huntsman
Gingrich

My preferred ticket Perry/West 2012!

After awhile Maynard Huntsman just starts growing on you GRIN.

Dr Evil on December 30, 2011 at 11:14 AM

Is 200 people at a campaign stop a big deal? If that’s all Perry is getting, I doubt he’s going to make top 3 in Iowa.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:15 AM

RightMan,

Why should we trust you to have accurate numbers on crowds at Perry and Santorum events, especially if you prefer Perry?

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:04 AM

Because pictures don’t lie.

Aslan’s Girl and gophergirl, my fellow Perry supporters, have posted several picks in previous threads showing pictures taken at both Perry and Santorum events.

The difference couldn’t be more stark.

There are also several articles like this one:

Bachmann, Perry, Santorum hope Iowans reward them for old-fashioned retail

which starts off with:

DeWITT, Iowa — Rick Perry drew standing-room-only crowds. Michele Bachmann lost her voice. Rick Santorum made a duel pitch —for votes and cash.

Hope WashPost is still credible enough for you? Otherwise google “Rick Perry standing room only Iowa” and let me know what you find.

TheRightMan on December 30, 2011 at 11:15 AM

Here’s another reporter with counts in case you don’t believe the ABC reporter

http://twitter.com/BenPhilpottKUT

gophergirl on December 30, 2011 at 11:16 AM

The voters in Pennsylvania rejected him in 2006 because of his and the Republicans’ profligate ways. Along with Tom DeLay, Rick Santorum led the K Street Project, which traded perks for lobbyists for money for the GOP funded with your tax dollars through earmarks and pork projects.

LOL. Pa. voters love their pork and earmarks and vote for those who deliver. They elect porkers like the late John Murtha who called his own constituents redneck racists. The idiots in Pa. don’t care for Santorum because he is not a BIG supporter of unions.

they lie on December 30, 2011 at 11:16 AM

Huntsman is an awful candidate. He should have primaried Obama.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:16 AM

Well I thought the talking point against Palin was she could draw big crowds but not votes. :)

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:17 AM

I don’t care about his views on gay people, to be honest.

I don’t see gay issues as a big issue, especially when the economy sucks and repeal of Obamacare is what matters to a mjority of voters.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:12 AM

That’s how you view Santorum. Santorum’s base is evangelicals, they do care about homosexuality and same sex marriage, that’s why Santorum talks about the issue so much, because he is a social conservative candidate. Evangelicals don’t believe you have to have one or the other. They think you can have the entire package, a social conservative, and someone who can turn the economy around. Santorum knows what the evangelicals, his base are looking for, that’s why his position on homosexuality is so well known, and discussed.

Dr Evil on December 30, 2011 at 11:19 AM

Ok, Dr. Evil, you fret about those gays.

I’m more concerned about the economy, healthcarfe policy, taxes, etc.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:20 AM

Santorum’s obsession with homosexuality is disturbing. Took the bait on that DADT question and damaged his credibility. Young voters will punish him for that.

andy85719 on December 30, 2011 at 11:20 AM

Younger voters generally don’t turn out for elections.

The ones obsessed with gay issues are going to vote Obama. You can’t out-gay the Democrat Party at this point.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:21 AM

Is 200 people at a campaign stop a big deal? If that’s all Perry is getting, I doubt he’s going to make top 3 in Iowa.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:15 AM

The polls say that Santorum, drawing 10-30 people at an event, is in the top three currently. Perry, drawing 200+ over a holiday period, is in fourth.

Who are you willing to bet will place in top 3 if you wish to gamble?

Also do note Perry will be launching his 72-hour Iowa strike force in the last days of the campaign. Perry, a former RGA Chairman, and Barbuor are veterans when it comes to on-the-ground campaigns. Many forget that and then open their mouths in shock when he surprises them when the results roll in.

Side note: Perry has been campaigning with his friend Jindal in Iowa and Jindal has been winning a lot of hearts as well. 2016 looks good even if 2012 doesn’t work out.

TheRightMan on December 30, 2011 at 11:21 AM

While voters believe cutting spending is good for the economy, most doubt that either party will cut spending after the November elections. If Republicans win the White House and Congress, 38% expect spending to be cut significantly, but 26% expect it will rise. If Democrats win both the White House and Congress, 54% expect further growth in government spending.

Voters want Fiscal Conservatism, and in each of the last three election cycles, 2006, 2008, and 2010, they have voted for the party that they thought would best deliver fiscal conservatism. In 2006 and 2008, voters blamed Republicans for large deficits and the Fannie/Freddie subprime mortgage crisis. In 2010 voters blamed Democrats (who held the Presidency, House, and Congress, and had forced through the very unpopular Porkulus and Obamacare, and ran record-breaking deficits each year.

The answer to winning big in 2012 is to emphasize (and deliver on) Fiscal Conservatism.

That doesn’t mean that the candidate has to be socially “moderate”. The candidate can absolutely be socially conservative. But the FOCUS has to be kept on Fiscal Conservatism.

ITguy on December 30, 2011 at 11:22 AM

I don’t see gay issues as a big issue, especially when the economy sucks and repeal of Obamacare is what matters to a mjority of voters.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:12 AM

Was that Freaudean slip on purpose?

they lie on December 30, 2011 at 11:22 AM

I’m not against Perry. I’m just mocking the statist accusation leveled by Perry SuperFans and bimbos at Santorum because he’s a problem for Perry in Iowa.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:23 AM

When “batshiat crazy” is defined by the tub-thumping armchair generals as “do anything but invade and continually occupy every Turd-World sandlot we feel like”, then yeah, I could see that!

MelonCollie on December 30, 2011 at 11:14 AM

Yea, sure that’s the ticket. It’s the “establishment” keeping him down. He’s a sitting congressman who’s been running for a decade. You’re a typical Paul supporter. Spin is all you have and you continually ignore the elephant in the room. The thing that you and his other disciples are missing is that many people including myself are and would be open to libertarian ideas. He’s got some good ones. The problem for you, me and the country is that all the good is far outweighed by the bad ideas and frankly kooky ideas and theories he has. He’s the crazy uncle at Thanksgiving. Smile and nod at him, oh sure once and a while he says something lucid. Then he goes off on a wild conspiracy theory. The only one who nods in agreement is your stoner cousin. Libertarians could make big gains the way things are right now. Paul is not the one who should be leading the movement he’s hurting more than helping The mere fact that you can’t see it or can easily dismiss his past comments and actions awhile excusing them speaks volumes.

Minnfidel on December 30, 2011 at 11:24 AM

NO offense, but you sound like you want to have Perry’s baby. I trust you to be objective.

I’m not anti-Perry, but I think you are a Perry SuperFan.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:11 AM

LOL…

Well, better to have Perry’s baby than have Romney shoved into our back orifices.

You will vote for Romney and like it.

The VA GOP has even rolled out a campaign to force every primary voter to pledge allegiance to His Mittness.

Ha ha ha ha…

TheRightMan on December 30, 2011 at 11:25 AM

I’m not against Perry. I’m just mocking the statist accusation leveled by Perry SuperFans and bimbos at Santorum because he’s a problem for Perry in Iowa.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:23 AM

I repeat – you are more annoying than a mosquito.

gophergirl on December 30, 2011 at 11:25 AM

Santorum is a statist. His tax-free manufacturing is market manipulation par excellence.

andy85719 on December 30, 2011 at 11:25 AM

Was that Freaudean slip on purpose?

they lie on December 30, 2011 at 11:22 AM

Nope the word sucks is commonly used and it’s usually not sexual in nature.

I’m tired of gays whining all the time, and Republican pundits and pols who are sad they missed on the civil rights movement for blacks are trying to make gays issues into a civil rights movement.

The world doesn’t revolve around gay people. I’m interested in more important stuff.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:26 AM

Here’s another reporter with counts in case you don’t believe the ABC reporter

http://twitter.com/BenPhilpottKUT

gophergirl on December 30, 2011 at 11:16 AM

It helps Romney for Rep Bachmann and Sen Santorum to stay in the primary. I don’t see either going past Iowa IMO. I don’t see a lack of $$$ keeping the other candidates from going on after Iowa since Huntsman didn’t campaign there it doesn’t matter how he finishes in Iowa.

Dr Evil on December 30, 2011 at 11:27 AM

I repeat – you are more annoying than a mosquito.

gophergirl on December 30, 2011 at 11:25 AM

The only reason you like Perry is he is handsome. You’ll flip over to Romney if Perry can’t make a comeback. You said so last night.

I don’t care what some Hot for Perry/Romney woman says.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:28 AM

I’m not against Perry. I’m just mocking the statist accusation leveled by Perry SuperFans and bimbos at Santorum because he’s a problem for Perry in Iowa.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:23 AM

I repeat – you are more annoying than a mosquito.

gophergirl on December 30, 2011 at 11:25 AM

Now, Dr. Tesla, you’ve done it!

It’s really hard to get on the wrong side of gophergirl, who is one of the nicest people on Hot Air – much much nicer and more tolerant than me.

But you managed to do it.

*Shakes head*

TheRightMan on December 30, 2011 at 11:28 AM

I don’t see me voting for Romney unless the line is super short.

I’m defintely not standing in line for over 10 minutes to vote for him.

I’m just one vote so it’s not like it matters.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:29 AM

Gophergirl isn’t judge and jury here.

She’s welcome to share her opinion but I’m not obligated to agree with it or dance for her or say things she wants to hear.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:30 AM

Santorum’s obsession with homosexuality is disturbing. Took the bait on that DADT question and damaged his credibility. Young voters will punish him for that.

andy85719 on December 30, 2011 at 11:20 AM

Meh, the people committed to gay marriage or the like are going to vote for Obama no matter what, presuming they remember to get to the polls.

Out of the moderates up for grabs, opposition to gay marriage will generate votes, especially in the swing states like PA or IA.

In this sense it is like a less important version of the abortion issue – being strongly pro-life may well make the difference between winning or losing a close election. Of course outside of Romney, the rest of the R candidates will likely have that advantage going into the election.

18-1 on December 30, 2011 at 11:30 AM

Incredibly sexist Dr. Tesla. Perhaps gophergirl really does like Perry, for whatever reason. Accusing her of simply judging on looks is very dismissive.

andy85719 on December 30, 2011 at 11:31 AM

The only reason you like Perry is he is handsome. You’ll flip over to Romney if Perry can’t make a comeback. You said so last night.

I don’t care what some Hot for Perry/Romney woman says.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:28 AM

Oh dear God… can you be any more infantile?

I have to back gophergirl on this:

Perry supporters (including gophergirl) have given concrete reasons why we support him. And it has nothing to do with his looks – although I must say it doesn’t hurt he is good looking – but it has everything to do with his record.

gophergirl will support Romney in the general because she sees anyone as better than Obama.

Me OTOH – I choose Obama if it devolves to a Romney vs. Obama race.

Capiche?

Now get lost and go drink some milk.

TheRightMan on December 30, 2011 at 11:32 AM

Ok, Dr. Evil, you fret about those gays.

I’m more concerned about the economy, healthcarfe policy, taxes, etc.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:20 AM

You are being obtuse, I don’t know if it’s intentional or your nature. I didn’t state at any time in my comment that gay issues, homosexuality was a concern of mine. I pointed out to you, Santorum’s base “evangelicals” and why it’s important to them. Santorum’s base “evangelicals” does not equal your concerns.

It’s an odd thing that you are arguing Santorum’s positives, and no nothing about his base of support which is social conservatives who care about same sex marriage issue.

Dr Evil on December 30, 2011 at 11:32 AM

Andy,

She said last night if Perry can’t make a comeback, she’s going to vote for Romney.

You can’t tell me that has nothing to do with the fact they are both handsome men.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:33 AM

And Paul? Seriously? Yes, it would be nice to see candidates much more willing to forcefully demand significant reductions in the size and scope of government, but Paul is a racist conspiracy theorist who doesn’t care in the least about what is ideas and their implementation would mean in practice.

18-1 on December 30, 2011 at 11:12 AM

God bless the people of Galveston, TX… I love that area, and ache to go back there some day. But what in the hell they see in Ron, and for 35+ years even, frankly boggles my mind.

Ron is just as nuts as Dennis Kucinich, only Ron didn’t famously drive a major city into default while as a 20-something mayor.

Myron Falwell on December 30, 2011 at 11:34 AM

Did it ever occur to you that his supposed suppression by the “establishment” is not actually supression. Do you think it might just be because he is batshiat crazy?

Minnfidel on December 30, 2011 at 11:03 AM

I’d vote for a garden gnome to suppress RuPaul. Where do I sign up for this conspiracy? /

WhatNot on December 30, 2011 at 11:34 AM

It’s an odd thing that you are arguing Santorum’s positives, and no nothing about his base of support which is social conservatives who care about same sex marriage issue.

Dr Evil on December 30, 2011 at 11:32 AM

I think you are hellbent on painting him as a social con but he’s a full sprectrum conservative. His voting record on fiscal matters and foreign policy is conservative across the board.

It’s not statist as the redneck from Macon Georgia Erick Erickson asserts. That guy is dumber than a rock.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:34 AM

I don’t care what some Hot for Perry/Romney woman says.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:28 AM

Is this where Perry got the “Hot Gas” malaprop from? ;)

Myron Falwell on December 30, 2011 at 11:36 AM

Ok, so what if I’m wrong and gopher girl doesn’t vote on looks?

It’s a harmless opinion on a comment board. She’ll get over it.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:36 AM

You can’t tell me that has nothing to do with the fact they are both handsome men.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:33 AM

Nope.

It has everything to do with the fact that your postings with respect to women on these forum has been increasingly sexist.

What is wrong with you? Girlfriend or wife dumped you? Insecurity? Having problems with your female boss?

Whatever it is – deal with it. I could probably help you if I can find the time.

But don’t take it out on the excellent women in our community.

TheRightMan on December 30, 2011 at 11:36 AM

I think you are hellbent on painting him as a social con but he’s a full sprectrum conservative. His voting record on fiscal matters and foreign policy is conservative across the board.

It’s not statist as the redneck from Macon Georgia Erick Erickson asserts. That guy is dumber than a rock.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:34 AM

I am not painting him as anything, it’s from his own mouth in his own words he’s a social conservative, he has intentionally campaigned for the evangelical vote in Iowa.

I don’t care what someone on another website opinions of any of the candidates might happen to be. This is HOT AIR.

Dr Evil on December 30, 2011 at 11:38 AM

cane_loader,

Condi Rice is black! What!?

Look, I’m Republican, so I tend not to pick people based on the color of their skin, but the content of their character and their resume.

…and we are talking about Dr. Rice, the former Sectary of State, former National Security advisor to the President, and was a Provost of Stanford University. She is qualified to the President, much less vice president.

In a Perry administration, she would bring her foreign policy experience and gravitas to the job, especially in light of the foreign policy we’ve had for the last four years. I don’t think she would apologize for our foreign policy the last four years; she would just simply re-build it. Like Bush and Regan picked VP with foreign policy experience, Perry should do the same.

Hell, if Conger had his way, he would put a panda’s heart into Dick Cheney’s body so he could take the slot again for another eight years.

Rick Perry / Condi Rice 2012

Conger on December 30, 2011 at 11:38 AM

RightMan,

You take things too seriously. Trash talk is part of politics, and she hasn’t denied it yet.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:38 AM

Ok, so what if I’m wrong and gopher girl doesn’t vote on looks?

It’s a harmless opinion on a comment board. She’ll get over it.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:36 AM

*Facepalm*

Man up, dude, and issue an apology to gophergirl.

TheRightMan on December 30, 2011 at 11:38 AM

Ok, so Santy never mentions his views on fiscal matters and foreign policy. He campaigns ONLY on social issues.

Oh my god, people say anything in campaign seasons.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:39 AM

RightMan,

You take things too seriously. Trash talk is part of politics, and she hasn’t denied it yet.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:38 AM

Maybe she’s hurt/annoyed and is ignoring you? Just apologize and she might forgive you.

TheRightMan on December 30, 2011 at 11:40 AM

I am not painting him as anything, it’s from his own mouth in his own words he’s a social conservative, he has intentionally campaigned for the evangelical vote in Iowa.

Indeed, which means he is strongly arguing for one of the 3 major planks of conservative thought.

And…you see this as a negative?

18-1 on December 30, 2011 at 11:40 AM

Apologize to gophergirl for what? I never said I could prove it, but she is all excited about Perry but she said last night if not Perry she goes over to Romney. She never explained why, and I never heard her talk much about why she supports Perry and why Romney would be acceptable if not Perry.

I just note they are both handsome men.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:41 AM

I’m not trying to date gophergirl.

I prefer girls in the south because they have hard tanned bodies.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:42 AM

The only reason you like Perry is he is handsome. You’ll flip over to Romney if Perry can’t make a comeback. You said so last night.

I don’t care what some Hot for Perry/Romney woman says.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:28 AM

Yes Perry and Romney are attractive men but GROSS they are old enough to be my father.

Contrary to what you believe – all of us women on HA have brains and have concrete reasons as to why we support the candidate we do and surprise they have nothing to do with the way they look.

I just love sexist digusting men /

gophergirl on December 30, 2011 at 11:42 AM

I’m not trying to date gophergirl.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:42 AM

THANK GOD!

gophergirl on December 30, 2011 at 11:43 AM

Harold Stassen is the only viable candidate that can bring us all together.

celtic warrior on December 30, 2011 at 11:43 AM

Well gopher,

I’ve always admit to being bit of a sexist.

But I do note that I did show more support for Palin and Bachman than most on Hot air. :)

NOthing wrong with a little eye candy for president.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:44 AM

Ok, so Santy never mentions his views on fiscal matters and foreign policy. He campaigns ONLY on social issues.

Oh my god, people say anything in campaign seasons.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:39 AM

Except he wrote a book and it wasn’t during the campaign season and it’s all about his social conservatism. “It takes a family” in response to Hillary Clinton’s book “It takes a village”

You really don’t know anything about Rick Santorum, but I don’t expect many people do, he doesn’t have high profile face or name recognition. That’s one of the reasons he’s not going to be the republican nominee.

Dr Evil on December 30, 2011 at 11:44 AM

Oh dear God… can you be any more infantile?

I have to back gophergirl on this:

Perry supporters (including gophergirl) have given concrete reasons why we support him. And it has nothing to do with his looks – although I must say it doesn’t hurt he is good looking – but it has everything to do with his record.

gophergirl will support Romney in the general because she sees anyone as better than Obama.

Me OTOH – I choose Obama if it devolves to a Romney vs. Obama race.

Capiche?

Now get lost and go drink some milk.

TheRightMan on December 30, 2011 at 11:32 AM

You are a sweetheart – thank you :)

gophergirl on December 30, 2011 at 11:44 AM

Santorum is a statist. His tax-free manufacturing is market manipulation par excellence.

andy85719 on December 30, 2011 at 11:25 AM

If bringing back manufacturing to the US is statist, then give me statism.

Stoic Patriot on December 30, 2011 at 11:45 AM

Gopher girl,

I think you really like me but your ego won’t let you admit it. :)

Female pride amuses me.

Dr. Tesla on December 30, 2011 at 11:45 AM

Comment pages: 1 2 3 4