CNN Iowa poll: Romney 25, Paul 22, Santorum 16, Gingrich 14

posted at 4:29 pm on December 28, 2011 by Allahpundit

You know who this benefits?

In Iowa, both Romney and Paul are each up five points among likely caucus goers from a CNN/Time/ORC poll conducted at the start of December. The new survey indicates that Santorum, the former senator from Pennsylvania, is at 16% support, up 11 points from the beginning of the month, with Gingrich at 14%, down from 33% in the previous poll. Since Gingrich’s rise late last month and early this month in both national and early voting state surveys, he’s come under attack by many of the rival campaigns…

Santorum is campaigning on a shoestring budget, but he’s visited all of Iowa’s 99 counties and has made a strong pitch towards social conservative voters, who are very influential here in Iowa on the Republican side. Wednesday Santorum was up with a new radio spot on Hawkeye State airwaves touting endorsements by social conservative leaders. His pitch may be starting to pay off.

“Most of Santorum’s gains have come among likely caucus participants who are born-again or evangelical, and he now tops the list among that crucial voting bloc, with support from 22% of born-agains compared to 18% for Paul, 16% for Romney, and 14% for Gingrich,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

So there’s the long-awaited Santorum surge among social cons, who are finally giving him a first look at the perfect moment after flirtations this fall with Bachmann, Perry, Cain, and Gingrich. Two caveats, though, one minor and one major. The minor: PPP’s poll published this morning found Santorum stuck at 10 percent, still behind Gingrich and Bachmann. Are their numbers the outlier or are CNN’s? The major: According to the crosstabs, CNN only polled … registered Republicans in Iowa. That means they’re badly underestimating support for Paul, who’s cleaning up among Democrats and independents who are planning to vote in the caucuses. They polled New Hampshire too and did a bit better with that sample, including indies who are likely to vote (Romney leads Paul there by nearly 30 points), but I’m not sure the Iowa data is worth anything. Stick with PPP’s numbers for the time being: Paul 24, Romney 20, Gingrich 13, Bachmann 11.

Got an update or two coming, so stand by.

Update: WaPo quantifies the flaw in CNN’s poll: “in early Dec. Post-ABC Iowa poll, registerd GOP were 83% of potential caucusgoers, with Paul about 2X better among non-Reps.” And PPP notes that if they made CNN’s sample mistake, they’d also have had Romney ahead of Paul.

Update: Erick Erickson sees Romney’s dream coming true:

Santorum has no money or organization outside of Iowa and cannot win the nomination, but Iowans love a guy who sucks up to them and makes sure they know he loves the babies.

As a pro-lifer myself, I have to throw up a bit in my mouth that Iowa conservatives are seriously considering Rick Santorum, which will only help Mitt Romney, a guy who even after his supposedly heartfelt conversion to life put some seriously pro-abortion judges on the Massachusetts bench hiding behind the “Well it was Massachusetts for Pete’s sake” defense…

Rick Santorum is more conservative than Mitt Romney. He is a strong social conservative and has taken a lot of bullets from the left because of his stand. But he is not as strong a fiscal conservative as he claims and the real issue here is social conservatives in Iowa risk Mitt Romney’s election by supporting a guy who cannot get traction or money outside of Iowa.

Rick Santorum will not be the nominee. That’s the reality. But his rise hurts Bachmann, Gingrich, and Perry in Iowa — all of whom have better organizations and better shots beyond Iowa.

Philip Klein also imagines Romney gleefully rubbing his hands at the new dynamic. Santorum’s been following the same underpants-gnome strategy in Iowa as Huntsman has in New Hampshire:

Step one: Camp out there and become the de facto hometown favorite/Not Romney
Step two: Win
Step three: ????
Step four: Nominee!

Step three, I guess, is “momentum,” but momentum works a lot better when you have money and organization to help carry it forward. The only way Santorum becomes a real long-term threat, I think, is if he and Paul finish in the top two in Iowa and then Paul shocks Romney in New Hampshire. (Which is unlikely: Mitt’s now a 90 percent favorite there according to Nate Silver’s model.) That would leave Romney smelling like a loser and would set Santorum up for a possible win in South Carolina. Even then, I’m not sure how he’d outlast Romney in Florida and then in the long slog for delegates on Super Tuesday and beyond, but it would establish him as the lone remaining alternative to Mitt and Ron Paul for conservatives who can’t stomach either.


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nhgop on December 28, 2011 at 7:56 PM

PPP polls Democrats and Independents because it’s incredibly easy to switch your affiliations in Iowa.

There’s a legitimate debate over what the makeup of republicans/independents/democrats will be. But, to say that there will be only republicans is laughable.

gyrmnix on December 28, 2011 at 8:06 PM

Only Perry and Bachmann are drawing any kind of crowds at campaign stops.

Kermit on December 28, 2011 at 8:19 PM

Santorum couldn’t win his home state, which kicked him out by almost 20 points after they realized he was a Bible-thumper

HitNRun on December 28, 2011 at 6:22 PM

Pa. is a socially conservative state outside of Pittsburg and Philly, which are welfare havens. Pa. is a union state and the union members are really dumb because most are really conservatives but support liberals because of the union support of Dems. Pa. residents are quite religious, second amendment zealots, against abortion, don’t support same sex marriage, favor lower taxes,etc. So, Santorum would do quite well in Pa. as a POTUS candidate.

they lie on December 28, 2011 at 8:28 PM

therightwinger

Santorum is a smarter version of Perry?

Just Santorum?

Almost everyone is a smarter version of Rick Perry.

Horace on December 28, 2011 at 8:35 PM

Santorum would do well in PA, but for this reason: PA residents are sick to death of loser Obama. Only in Philly would Obama be embraced; 50 percent of residents have been on some type of public assistance since before the recession began.

Pittsburgh gets more red with each passing year of the recession.

Philly on December 28, 2011 at 8:37 PM

Oh and by the way, Mitt Romney lost his bid for the Senate seat against Ted Kennedy in a Republican year by 17 points, while in the same year Senator Santorum won against a Democratic incumbent.

nhgop on December 28, 2011 at 7:56 PM

PA > MA

When the day comes that Pat Toomey can get elected in MA, the republic will have been saved.

(For the record, I like Santorum and would give him a look if he were able to catch fire, but I just don’t see that happening.)

The Count on December 28, 2011 at 8:38 PM

Bottom line, Mitch Daniels was right.

These are the same fools who showed up for Huckabee in 08, you know, the guy who never met a problem government couldn’t solve. Kinda like Santorum, who was a huge spender in Congress.

Call this another good reason to drive a stake through the heart of caucuses.

mbecker908 on December 28, 2011 at 8:42 PM

I for one welcome our new Romneyocrity state of living.

DanStark on December 28, 2011 at 8:48 PM

I quit reading and posting at Red State. I got tired oof Kmow-it-all Ericksin telling me I was stupid if I didn’t agree with him. He’s an arrogant SOB.

Deanna on December 28, 2011 at 7:52 PM

Same here. Redstate has become irrelevant.

They are quite the vicious group of Palin haters over there. The garbage they post would make those at the daily kos blush.

LevinFan on December 28, 2011 at 8:53 PM

Go Rick…Perry.
Santorum is too far-right for me.
I don’t approve of homosexuality,but honestly….if it’s KEPT behind closed doors…what two consenting ADULTS do in the bedroom isn’t one of my big worries. Seriously.

annoyinglittletwerp on December 28, 2011 at 8:55 PM

Bottom line, Mitch Daniels was right.

These are the same fools who showed up for Huckabee in 08, you know, the guy who never met a problem government couldn’t solve. Kinda like Santorum, who was a huge spender in Congress.

Call this another good reason to drive a stake through the heart of caucuses.

mbecker908 on December 28, 2011 at 8:42 PM

As opposed to those who think government can’t solve any problem, and would prefer libertine anarchy.

Stoic Patriot on December 28, 2011 at 8:58 PM

This laughable CNN poll used to inflate Santorum’s numbers and get him over that 10% wall just killed Michelle Bachmann’s candidacy and helped Paul’s.

LevStrauss on December 28, 2011 at 8:59 PM

I would prefer a man who would tell the truth in spite of political fall-out.

Alferd Packer on December 28, 2011 at 7:49 PM

E Clampus Vitus? I have been looking for a Clamper from Alfred Packer Chapter.

Dr Evil on December 28, 2011 at 9:14 PM

I love how Romney supporters spread the hate against Rush and Redstate, sometimes Levin and Palin.

Makes sense though, people who have helped build the Conservative movement are the natural enemies of the moderate / progressive, as Romney calls himself (his words not mine, You Tube it).

IMHO Perry / West 2012.

tonotisto on December 28, 2011 at 9:16 PM

Kermit

Jethro “Scourge of Coyotes” Perry and Bachmann are pulling crowds because there really isn’t much to do in Iowa in January except watch the trains come in and go out of town.

Perry/Moe,Larry and Curley 2012! A real balanced ticket for a change.

Horace on December 28, 2011 at 9:21 PM

BTW – No offense meant to the folks in Iowa.
I live next door in the Nebraska Sandhills. We don’t even have many trains to watch anymore. Have to settle for counting the geese that fly over this time of the year.

Horace on December 28, 2011 at 9:23 PM

Dr. Evil…..Sorry I’m unfamiliar with E Clampus Vitus.

I’m a big fan of Alferd because legend has it that the judge sentencing him for cannibalism and murder said “Damn you Alferd Packer. There was only seven demicrats in this county and you done ett six of them.”

I’ve always considered him as a republican hero.

Alferd Packer on December 28, 2011 at 9:35 PM

Hasn’t anyone else noticed that Glenn Beck has been 1-2 weeks ahead of these recent shifts? He bashes Gingrich. Gingrich tumbles. Beck gave a ‘why not Santorum?’ nod a few weeks back, and here’s Rick…

PPP poll is a Demoncrat outfit. I swear those people have no real feel for what’s going on in Iowa.

If Romney gets the nomination, who’s up for going *fourth* party and just putting up a Paul Ryan-Mitch Daniels type of ticket?

shannon76 on December 28, 2011 at 9:37 PM

Americans have lost all common sense.

Your deserve another 4 years of Obama to realize what Socialism really feels like and how destructive it is.

And, under Herr Romney, you will get the same Washington/Wall Street establishment.

Yes, Hot Air people want real change, but have not got the balls to vote for it.

Sparky5253 on December 28, 2011 at 9:41 PM

Dr. Evil…..Sorry I’m unfamiliar with E Clampus Vitus.

I’m a big fan of Alferd because legend has it that the judge sentencing him for cannibalism and murder said “Damn you Alferd Packer. There was only seven demicrats in this county and you done ett six of them.”

I’ve always considered him as a republican hero.

Alferd Packer on December 28, 2011 at 9:35 PM

I remember that quote too :) They even named a memorial Grill after him. I have been looking for Clamper, the mysterious historians who adopt western historic places of significance. I need one from the Al Packer Chapter they adopted Sunnyside cemetery up in Victor and I have cousin buried up there somewhere. I went up to find his resting place last Christmas, but couldn’t find a tombstone. One of my cousin who live in Colorado also looked for me, and suggested I find myself a Clamper of the Al Packer variety GRIN. From what I have heard the E Clampus Vitus “Clampers” are a fun bunch.

Dr Evil on December 28, 2011 at 9:50 PM

Alferd Packer on December 28, 2011 at 9:35 PM

Alferd Packer rocks. Democrats sound like an acquired taste, but maybe they taste like chicken instead of bitter, unripe fruits. /s

WhatNot on December 28, 2011 at 9:50 PM

As a lifelong PA native, Santorum has been my choice from almost day 1 (once Paul Ryan said he’s not running). I hope this surge continues, I’m voting for him in the PA primary regardless.

jdespirito on December 28, 2011 at 9:51 PM

Shannon76……

Ryan/Daniels or Ryan/Rubio I’m up for it.

We need real change not Obama light.

Alferd Packer on December 28, 2011 at 9:53 PM

As a lifelong PA native, Santorum has been my choice from almost day 1 (once Paul Ryan said he’s not running). I hope this surge continues, I’m voting for him in the PA primary regardless.

jdespirito on December 28, 2011 at 9:51 PM

We need more voters who cast their ballots based on their convictions rather than worrying about who other people will vote for.

What’s the current sentiment about Santorum in PA? I know he lost his last election for Senate pretty badly.

ZGMF_Freedom on December 28, 2011 at 10:01 PM

Agreed with some of the posts above- Redstate SUCKS..

it is nearly illegible at this stage- poorly written and poorly researched. Plus the fact that Erick Erickson is a stupider Pat Buchanan that the media sucks up to in order to portray Republicans as whack jobs and paleoconservatives.

not to mention they just are wrong about so many issues and make up facts and their own reality. they are ideologues the same as the Daily Kos morons- who twist events to suit their own biases..

AirForceCane on December 28, 2011 at 10:03 PM

Santorum 2012!!! Money bomb

Come on, Conservatives!

pannw on December 28, 2011 at 10:10 PM

YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!

President Romney will do great!

Jailbreak on December 28, 2011 at 4:34 PM

It’s JugEars illegal drunk Uncle again…on another thread.

KOOLAID2 on December 28, 2011 at 10:35 PM

50 percent of residents have been on some type of public assistance since before the recession began.

Philly on December 28, 2011 at 8:37 PM

The one in ’82, ’91, or ’01?

roy_batty on December 28, 2011 at 11:02 PM

it is nearly illegible at this stage-

AirForceCane on December 28, 2011 at 10:03 PM

Is he using blunt crayons again?

roy_batty on December 28, 2011 at 11:03 PM

CNN poll… if they had some credibility it would be news.

MrMoe on December 28, 2011 at 11:09 PM

Fantastic!
Rick Santorum would be a strong, steady defender of freedom!
Surge Rick Surge!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Mark7788 on December 28, 2011 at 11:14 PM

I would actually support Santorum if he could get some traction against Obama.

csdeven on December 28, 2011 at 11:25 PM

I would actually support Santorum if he could get some traction against Obama.

csdeven on December 28, 2011 at 11:25 PM

I think that if everyone who felt this way actually stepped up, instead of waiting for someone else to go first, he would get some traction.

pannw on December 29, 2011 at 12:07 AM

Santorum couldn’t win his home state, which kicked him out by almost 20 points after they realized he was a Bible-thumper
HitNRun on December 28, 2011 at 6:22 PM

Voters nationally were down over the war in Iraq in 2006. The Casey family is royalty in PA, like the Kennedys in MA.

It took both those dynamics working together, to unseat Rick Santorum.

listens2glenn on December 29, 2011 at 2:11 AM

annoyinglittletwerp on December 28, 2011 at 8:55 PM

Rick Santorum will not condone monitoring anybody’s private space, to catch consenting adults in the act of sodomy.

I don’t believe he will condone monitoring anybody’s private space, for anything EXCEPT on the basis of a warrant issued by a duly appointed Judge.
Such warrants are NOT going to be issued on the basis of “suspected sodomy, by two consenting adults.”

listens2glenn on December 29, 2011 at 2:23 AM

Agreed with some of the posts above- Redstate SUCKS..

it is nearly illegible at this stage- poorly written and poorly researched. Plus the fact that Erick Erickson is a stupider Pat Buchanan that the media sucks up to in order to portray Republicans as whack jobs and paleoconservatives.

not to mention they just are wrong about so many issues and make up facts and their own reality. they are ideologues the same as the Daily Kos morons- who twist events to suit their own biases..

AirForceCane on December 28, 2011 at 10:03 PM

The only reason you think Redstate sucks is because they all tend to be right while most here are just following the crowd because they are cowards of the media. I have watched the polls here at HA with so many jumping from one candidate to another. People at Redstate for the most part have been steady in their support, mostly of Perry, because they look at candidates background, not what the MSM is saying about them.

Several Iowa local newspapers have been reporting what has been going on with Bachmann, Perry and Santorum on their bus tours. Only Perry has been packing 150-300 people at each of the 4-5 events each day. Bachmann is mostly media events, not meet and greets. Santorum is still doing very small 10-30 people meets.

Comparing Bachmann, Perry, and Santorum in Iowa

Ronaldusmax on December 29, 2011 at 2:28 AM

why the Red State hate? I don’t believe in going all with just one blog. Isn’t it better to check out several sources? Each one has something different to offer. One big difference between Red State and here is that just about anyone can write a diary and start a thread. That does lead to an uneven quality in the writing. I like it though because it is more of a grass roots type approach. Anyones work can get noticed if there is interest in it. Today there is a first time diary post from a home school student- it’s very nicely done. To me that is all just lots of fun.

One thing I have always liked at Hot Air is the headlines. I hate reading Drudge- to me it is a confusing set up. Hot Air headlines are easy to check out and they are kept quite up to date. Good job on that.

I have watched the polls here at HA with so many jumping from one candidate to another.

This has really annoyed me as well. Quite a fickle bunch around here. I have been a Perry supporter through thick and thin because the reasons I have for thinking he is the best candidate have not changed. No wonder I find Red State more congenial at the moment. There are supporters of all the candidates over there but I don’t see an an unbearable level of contempt for any of them.

I do look beyond the primaries and plan to be good friends with Hot Air once more when all this craziness is over and we settle down to get our ABO elected whoever it is!

cheetah2 on December 29, 2011 at 3:59 AM

Santorum does his best John “F’n” Kerry impression; “Where can I get me a hunting licenses?” LMAO!! Santorum even wore a brand new NRA hat to seal the lie! We all know what happened to J F’n K…

I’ll give 3 to 1 odds Santorum becomes a Packer’s fan and becomes the next “Biggest Cheese Head Ever!” I wonder if Santorum can name his favorite Pittsburgh Pirate or Philadelphia Phillie’s player? I remember F’n Kerry’s was Manny Ortiz!!

When all is said and done the shit always sinks to the bottom where it belongs. Santorum will be resting comfortably at the bottom of deep end in the presidential primary.

Tbone McGraw on December 29, 2011 at 7:03 AM

Erick Erickson isn’t being stupid today. Color me amazed.

rubberneck on December 29, 2011 at 8:01 AM

Question… why is it poor organization when Gingrich misses the VA ballot but not poor organization when Santorum doesn’t even submit signatures? How about complete lack of organization on Santorum’s part? Geez, such a double standard these days. The conservative blogosphere is doing everything it can to lose the upcoming election… IMO, if Newt isn’t the nominee I don’t see Obama being booted from office.

ColHogan on December 29, 2011 at 8:09 AM

Tbone McGraw on December 29, 2011 at 7:03 AM

wtf are you talking about?

hawkdriver on December 29, 2011 at 9:10 AM

We need more voters who cast their ballots based on their convictions rather than worrying about who other people will vote for.

What’s the current sentiment about Santorum in PA? I know he lost his last election for Senate pretty badly.

ZGMF_Freedom on December 28, 2011 at 10:01 PM

Despite having kept in touch with PA via a weekly spot on Bill Bennett’s radio show, most people here seem to have forgotten him. There’s been a couple of times I’ve had conversations with conservative friends here about “I don’t know who to pick out of this bunch, I’m not thrilled about any of them.” and I’ll say “Don’t you remember Santorum? He’s running.” and I can actually see the light bulb going on over their head when I say that.

As for voters who do remember him, there’s no bad taste in anyone’s mouth about him, most have nothing but good things to say, I think it was just a really bad election cycle for Republicans that year. Being something of a hipster most of my friends are far leftists and don’t really have any thoughts on him specifically beyond knee-jerk reactions.

jdespirito on December 29, 2011 at 10:31 AM

Gingrich beats Santorum in Iowa and the South. Lots of talk about organization now instead of policies, so I hope Gingrich is working on that part of his campaign. Right now, who in their right mind would want to be the frontrunner ahead of Romney knowing what lengths Romney’s campaign is willing to go to to destroy any alternative candidate the people are supporting based on policy and not organization.

There is no reason to think that Romney can beat Obama based on his history. He has only won one election in his lifetime, and lost several. He could not even beat McCain. The only thing he has going for him is the organization and money provided to him by the Republican establishment, which is probably a payoff for losing the 2008 primary to McCain.

lea on December 29, 2011 at 11:20 AM

Iowa

Romney, Paul, Gingrich tied at 17 each, Rick Santorum 13:

Insider Advantage 12/28 – 12/28 429 LV Romney 17 Paul 17 Gingrich 17 Santorum 13

RCP Average 12/19 – 12/28 — Romney 21.8 Paul 20.8 Gingrich 15.3 Santorum 12.3

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html

IndeCon on December 29, 2011 at 11:37 AM

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