CNN Iowa poll: Romney 25, Paul 22, Santorum 16, Gingrich 14

posted at 4:29 pm on December 28, 2011 by Allahpundit

You know who this benefits?

In Iowa, both Romney and Paul are each up five points among likely caucus goers from a CNN/Time/ORC poll conducted at the start of December. The new survey indicates that Santorum, the former senator from Pennsylvania, is at 16% support, up 11 points from the beginning of the month, with Gingrich at 14%, down from 33% in the previous poll. Since Gingrich’s rise late last month and early this month in both national and early voting state surveys, he’s come under attack by many of the rival campaigns…

Santorum is campaigning on a shoestring budget, but he’s visited all of Iowa’s 99 counties and has made a strong pitch towards social conservative voters, who are very influential here in Iowa on the Republican side. Wednesday Santorum was up with a new radio spot on Hawkeye State airwaves touting endorsements by social conservative leaders. His pitch may be starting to pay off.

“Most of Santorum’s gains have come among likely caucus participants who are born-again or evangelical, and he now tops the list among that crucial voting bloc, with support from 22% of born-agains compared to 18% for Paul, 16% for Romney, and 14% for Gingrich,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

So there’s the long-awaited Santorum surge among social cons, who are finally giving him a first look at the perfect moment after flirtations this fall with Bachmann, Perry, Cain, and Gingrich. Two caveats, though, one minor and one major. The minor: PPP’s poll published this morning found Santorum stuck at 10 percent, still behind Gingrich and Bachmann. Are their numbers the outlier or are CNN’s? The major: According to the crosstabs, CNN only polled … registered Republicans in Iowa. That means they’re badly underestimating support for Paul, who’s cleaning up among Democrats and independents who are planning to vote in the caucuses. They polled New Hampshire too and did a bit better with that sample, including indies who are likely to vote (Romney leads Paul there by nearly 30 points), but I’m not sure the Iowa data is worth anything. Stick with PPP’s numbers for the time being: Paul 24, Romney 20, Gingrich 13, Bachmann 11.

Got an update or two coming, so stand by.

Update: WaPo quantifies the flaw in CNN’s poll: “in early Dec. Post-ABC Iowa poll, registerd GOP were 83% of potential caucusgoers, with Paul about 2X better among non-Reps.” And PPP notes that if they made CNN’s sample mistake, they’d also have had Romney ahead of Paul.

Update: Erick Erickson sees Romney’s dream coming true:

Santorum has no money or organization outside of Iowa and cannot win the nomination, but Iowans love a guy who sucks up to them and makes sure they know he loves the babies.

As a pro-lifer myself, I have to throw up a bit in my mouth that Iowa conservatives are seriously considering Rick Santorum, which will only help Mitt Romney, a guy who even after his supposedly heartfelt conversion to life put some seriously pro-abortion judges on the Massachusetts bench hiding behind the “Well it was Massachusetts for Pete’s sake” defense…

Rick Santorum is more conservative than Mitt Romney. He is a strong social conservative and has taken a lot of bullets from the left because of his stand. But he is not as strong a fiscal conservative as he claims and the real issue here is social conservatives in Iowa risk Mitt Romney’s election by supporting a guy who cannot get traction or money outside of Iowa.

Rick Santorum will not be the nominee. That’s the reality. But his rise hurts Bachmann, Gingrich, and Perry in Iowa — all of whom have better organizations and better shots beyond Iowa.

Philip Klein also imagines Romney gleefully rubbing his hands at the new dynamic. Santorum’s been following the same underpants-gnome strategy in Iowa as Huntsman has in New Hampshire:

Step one: Camp out there and become the de facto hometown favorite/Not Romney
Step two: Win
Step three: ????
Step four: Nominee!

Step three, I guess, is “momentum,” but momentum works a lot better when you have money and organization to help carry it forward. The only way Santorum becomes a real long-term threat, I think, is if he and Paul finish in the top two in Iowa and then Paul shocks Romney in New Hampshire. (Which is unlikely: Mitt’s now a 90 percent favorite there according to Nate Silver’s model.) That would leave Romney smelling like a loser and would set Santorum up for a possible win in South Carolina. Even then, I’m not sure how he’d outlast Romney in Florida and then in the long slog for delegates on Super Tuesday and beyond, but it would establish him as the lone remaining alternative to Mitt and Ron Paul for conservatives who can’t stomach either.


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How can CNN make such a huge mistake with the polling sample. I’m guessing somebody is losing their job.

ModerateMan on December 28, 2011 at 5:16 PM

So, Erick Erickson is dumping on Santorum, arguably the most serious, credible conservative candidate running, in favor of non-conservative Newt, goofball Perry and tardasil Bachmann. Got it.

The Count on December 28, 2011 at 5:16 PM

cs89 on December 28, 2011 at 5:12 PM

Okay..:)

Dire Straits on December 28, 2011 at 5:17 PM

Here’s more:

AP: I’m sorry, I didn’t think I was going to talk about “man on dog” with a United States senator, it’s sort of freaking me out.

SANTORUM: And that’s sort of where we are in today’s world, unfortunately. The idea is that the state doesn’t have rights to limit individuals’ wants and passions. I disagree with that. I think we absolutely have rights because there are consequences to letting people live out whatever wants or passions they desire. And we’re seeing it in our society.

haner on December 28, 2011 at 5:17 PM

All hail Mittons !!!!!! The Republican establishment gets to choose their candidate again. Sorry Tea Party people. Squishy technocrat is the annointed one…and so it is written.

ZippyZ on December 28, 2011 at 5:18 PM

YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!

President Romney will do great!

Jailbreak on December 28, 2011 at 4:34 PM

I’m with ya! Mitt hasn’t promised pie in the sky nostrums. He’s laid out a REAL agenda that does what’s needed to get this country moving in the right direction. From entitlement reform along the lines of Paul Ryan to the RIGHT type of tax reform (lower cap gains, territorial tax, etc). Mitt understands the role of government in such areas as basic R&D (sorry purists but no private company is going to build a super-conducting super collider, for example) and not as venture capitalists (Solyndra, etc).

He’s not telling the radicals what they want to hear and they resent not being pandered to. So sad.

However, the rest of America isn’t being chased away, running and screaming, or howling in derision at the ridiculous promises being thrown around. No 9-9-9 gimmicks. No war on the courts. No 1/2 time Congress promises for Mitt. Instead of playing, “can you top this” Mitt is treating the voters with respect. His strategy will pay off big once he sews up the nomination. Which will be in about 3 weeks!

MJBrutus on December 28, 2011 at 5:18 PM

I’m beginning to hate IA.

What do those people do, get up in the morning and hold up a finger to the wind?

I don’t believe I’ve seen such wishy-washy (non-Independent) people in a long time.

mankai on December 28, 2011 at 5:18 PM

…Without the hispandering and graft.

Fletch54 on December 28, 2011 at 5:10 PM

Rick Perry is NOT my guy. But I reject this idea that he panders to Hispanics.

MadisonConservative on December 28, 2011 at 5:02 PM

I agree with you in part. I think that each candidate has expressed views that challenge my understanding of the Constitution, laws and conservatism.

I am willing to grant Santorum some leeway on his questionable ideals for one reason. He won’t be able to make the changes he’s talking about. So he can rue and wish all he wants. What I do appreciate is his determined perseverance in the face of substantial criticism.

I think GOP failed Santorum by not Google-bombing his name to clear up that search engine problem he has. Even conservatives snicker at him over this. Lame.

Capitalist Hog on December 28, 2011 at 5:18 PM

This quote from Santorum is going to stop him dead in the tracks.

haner on December 28, 2011 at 5:15 PM

Unfortunately there are some SoCons that think his attitude is the right one. Scream “family values” enough and there are some people who will vote for you even if you promise to burn the Constitution at your inauguration.

MadisonConservative on December 28, 2011 at 5:18 PM

This quote from Santorum is going to stop him dead in the tracks.

haner on December 28, 2011 at 5:15 PM

Yes, because as we all know, the pro-sodomy wing of the GOP is all-powerful. No candidate can win if he doesn’t sign the pro-sodomy pledge. It trumps all other conservative issues, including foreign policy and spending.

Norwegian on December 28, 2011 at 5:18 PM

Go Santorum go!

Stoic Patriot on December 28, 2011 at 5:19 PM

How can CNN make such a huge mistake with the polling sample. I’m guessing somebody is losing their job.

ModerateMan on December 28, 2011 at 5:16 PM

You haven’t been watching the news. They have tried everything to throw at Paul and this strange poll is no different. If they can make Santorum look like he is surging they want to create the possibility of people ditching Bachmann and Newt and running to Santorum. Santorum has no money or no organization, the media hurts Newt bad, and Bachmann is out of the race.

LevStrauss on December 28, 2011 at 5:20 PM

Good for him…

… Go get ‘em, Ricko!

Seven Percent Solution on December 28, 2011 at 5:20 PM

Yes, because as we all know, the pro-sodomy wing of the GOP is all-powerful. No candidate can win if he doesn’t sign the pro-sodomy pledge. It trumps all other conservative issues, including foreign policy and spending.

Norwegian on December 28, 2011 at 5:18 PM

It’s not the anti-sodomy part so much as his conviction that the interests of society vastly trumps that of the individual. That’s not a conservative position since the Revolution.

haner on December 28, 2011 at 5:21 PM

His strategy will pay off big once he sews up the nomination. Which will be in about 3 weeks!

MJBrutus on December 28, 2011 at 5:18 PM

I remember you predicting that Truce Daniels would run away with the nomination. How’d that work out? LOL

Norwegian on December 28, 2011 at 5:21 PM

Mitt understands the role of government in such areas as basic R&D (sorry purists but no private company is going to build a super-conducting super collider, for example) and not as venture capitalists (Solyndra, etc).
MJBrutus on December 28, 2011 at 5:18 PM

I dispute that assertion, but if you were right, all you’ve proven is that a “super-conducting super collider” has little to no value for our society.

I don’t think that’s the case, which is why I’m confident a private company would, in fact, invest in something which has value, just like they do in every other part of the market. The laws of economics do not arbitrarily suspend themselves.

thirtyandseven on December 28, 2011 at 5:22 PM

Flav o’ Week: Santorum

andy85719 on December 28, 2011 at 5:23 PM

I like Rick, but he ain’t gonna win. For starters, the debates for him have been ho-hum. He has a good family story, but he did lose reelection by 15%, I think.

ConservativePartyNow on December 28, 2011 at 5:23 PM

Santorum has the alcohol you are looking for, but he’s a pale stale ale with the foam on the bottom.

jaime on December 28, 2011 at 5:23 PM

Join the Santorista movement, while it’s still cool to do so.

Norky on December 28, 2011 at 5:24 PM

I know our new Paul-fan registrees think this is some kind of Ron Paul bulletin board, but it really isn’t.

Allahpundit on December 28, 2011 at 4:37 PM

Hahahaha. Santorum’s gains in CNN’s poll look real even though they’re a little long in the tooth from Dec. 21-27 (PPP had him only 11% with GOP only Dec. 26-27). If Santorum, Paul and Romney’s considerable increases in the CNN poll are proportionally split from the Gingrich implosion, seems Santorum was the biggest beneficiary. He’s the most ostensibly interventionist of the three.

TXGOP on December 28, 2011 at 5:25 PM

You know what’s usually a good idea before commenting? Reading the post. I know our new Paul-fan registrees think this is some kind of Ron Paul bulletin board, but it really isn’t.

Allahpundit on December 28, 2011 at 4:37 PM
On a very cranky day – this made me laugh. Thanks AP :)

gophergirl on December 28, 2011 at 4:47 PM

Good to know, I was not the only one laughing!(and..cranky)

KOOLAID2 on December 28, 2011 at 5:25 PM

Norwegian on December 28, 2011 at 5:21 PM

Wrong. I wanted him to run, but made no predictions about if he would or what his chances were.

MJBrutus on December 28, 2011 at 5:26 PM

Whic state do you think South Carolinans are more likely to pay attention to?

Norwegian on December 28, 2011 at 5:09 PM

The South Carolinians I know aren’t influenced by other states!

Eren on December 28, 2011 at 5:26 PM

It’s not the anti-sodomy part so much as his conviction that the interests of society vastly trumps that of the individual. That’s not a conservative position since the Revolution.

haner on December 28, 2011 at 5:21 PM

Oh please. You are a Romney supporter. Romney’s support of an indivudual mandate, cap & trade, etc, etc, shows clearly that his conviction is more aligned with what you accuse Santorum of.

Irregardless, the only area in which this matters is judicial appointments. I’ll take Santorum’s appointments over Romney any day. Romney track record in appointing judges in Massachusetts has been abysmal from a conservative point of view.

Norwegian on December 28, 2011 at 5:26 PM

OT: i really don’t like wolfie, just saw him badgering mitt on being transparent…what a crock!!!! where was your badgering of dear leader’s information???

liberal putz

cmsinaz on December 28, 2011 at 5:26 PM

You haven’t been watching the news. They have tried everything to throw at Paul and this strange poll is no different. If they can make Santorum look like he is surging they want to create the possibility of people ditching Bachmann and Newt and running to Santorum. Santorum has no money or no organization, the media hurts Newt bad, and Bachmann is out of the race.

LevStrauss on December 28, 2011 at 5:20 PM

That’s a fine conspiracy theory; your candidate would be proud. Tell me, who’s the supposed ultimate beneficiary in this sinister media collusion to take down Paul? Is it … Romney? Because if so, then CNN should really, really be trying to boost Ron Paul in Iowa instead.

Allahpundit on December 28, 2011 at 5:27 PM

Rick Perry is NOT my guy. But I reject this idea that he panders to Hispanics

LOL! Tell it to La Raza. They sure do think Rick is swell signing that DREAM Act into law. Of course, the vast majority of Hispanics still won’t vote for him, even if he has a heart.

Fletch54 on December 28, 2011 at 5:27 PM

I hope Santorum is able to pull of a surprise victory because he’s the only serious alternative left for conservatives. He’s sharp, articulate, passionate and focused. He has some weaknesses to be sure, but I think if given the nod he can put together a serious campaign. He needs to ease up on the 24/7 marriage and anti-buggerin’ rhetoric in order to not scare away milquetoast undecideds, but I think he is a man that can rise to the occasion.

NO ROMNEY, NO CRY!

Spirit Crusher on December 28, 2011 at 5:28 PM

I know our new Paul-fan registrees think this is some kind of Ron Paul bulletin board, but it really isn’t.

Allahpundit on December 28, 2011 at 4:37 PM

The decision to open registration twice in one week right before the start of the primaries, when all the kids are out of school for the holidays was… questionable, no?

Lawdawg86 on December 28, 2011 at 5:29 PM

Flav o’ Week: Santorum

andy85719 on December 28, 2011 at 5:23 PM

lol..I don’t even think it is a flavor yet..:)

Dire Straits on December 28, 2011 at 5:29 PM

thirtyandseven on December 28, 2011 at 5:22 PM

I understand the Libertarian argument, but I don’t think it always holds water. The fact is that we don’t know the value of pure science until we gain the insights it provides. Some times it provides very little return for the money and some times it pays of very big. The expense of such projects are so large that private business would have to be foolhardy to gamble with the shareholder’s money on such a scale.

MJBrutus on December 28, 2011 at 5:29 PM

andy85719,
Wrong Answer!

CoolChange80 on December 28, 2011 at 5:30 PM

Allahpundit on December 28, 2011 at 5:27 PM

Clearly, it’s blog traffic here. If CNN can boost Santorum, they know that there will be a titanic social con/RP battle and it will drive traffic here, leading to more advertising money, more sway for HA, and ultimately a national conversation about advertisers and corporate money in America. Thus, they are boosting Santorum to bring back campaign finance reform in force. I don’t know how you could miss this…

thirtyandseven on December 28, 2011 at 5:34 PM

Perry out early and Bachmann out after Iowa is terrific for a Run Sarah Run. Vote Rogue Operation. Newt Gingrich is not gonna make it and Perry is Texas Toast. Needs to more than just a Top 3 in Iowa. He has to keep it up. All his Eggs are in Iowa. I predicted he would be Top 3 for months and it is starting to look like it.

CoolChange80 on December 28, 2011 at 5:36 PM

thirtyandseven on December 28, 2011 at 5:34 PM

Lol, this was all set up at Bilderburg 2011, duh.

Lawdawg86 on December 28, 2011 at 5:37 PM

I understand the Libertarian argument, but I don’t think it always holds water. The fact is that we don’t know the value of pure science until we gain the insights it provides. Some times it provides very little return for the money and some times it pays of very big. The expense of such projects are so large that private business would have to be foolhardy to gamble with the shareholder’s money on such a scale.

MJBrutus on December 28, 2011 at 5:29 PM

Case in point being the National Fermi labs run by the University of Chicago, which led to technology that developed the MRI.

haner on December 28, 2011 at 5:37 PM

I hope Santorum is able to pull of a surprise victory because he’s the only serious alternative left for conservatives. He’s sharp, articulate, passionate and focused. He has some weaknesses to be sure, but I think if given the nod he can put together a serious campaign. He needs to ease up on the 24/7 marriage and anti-buggerin’ rhetoric in order to not scare away milquetoast undecideds, but I think he is a man that can rise to the occasion.
Spirit Crusher on December 28, 2011 at 5:28 PM

His weaknesses are less than the rest of the candidates lumped together.

Norky on December 28, 2011 at 5:38 PM

OFA = Organizing For A-Rom

Key West Reader on December 28, 2011 at 5:38 PM

Lawdawg86 on December 28, 2011 at 5:37 PM

Right after Allah’s keynote

thirtyandseven on December 28, 2011 at 5:39 PM

So… what happens when Herman Cain reinstates his previously suspended campaign?

/Lin Wood

Key West Reader on December 28, 2011 at 5:39 PM

Key West Reader on December 28, 2011 at 5:39 PM

LoL..:)

Dire Straits on December 28, 2011 at 5:41 PM

So, Erick Erickson is dumping on Santorum, arguably the most serious, credible conservative candidate running, in favor of non-conservative Newt, goofball Perry and tardasil Bachmann. Got it.

The Count on December 28, 2011 at 5:16 PM

Erick Erickson is like Newt Gingrich. His primary interest is in himself.

bw222 on December 28, 2011 at 5:45 PM

Geez, now Romney’s people have to dig up dirt and destroy Santorum? They must be exhausted.

lea on December 28, 2011 at 5:45 PM

I think Santorum is hoping for a Palin endorsement before South Carolina. While the two did have a dust up she has had really nice things to say about him on Fox. It is possible. A palin endorsement brings lots of cash.

Go Santorum, GO!

Utica681 on December 28, 2011 at 5:48 PM

“If voters start kind of shifting gears and deciding they want ideological consistency, then they’re going to start paying attention to say Rick Santorum,”
PALIN told Sean Hannity on Fox News.

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2011/12/02/sarah-palin-lavishes-praise-on-rick-santorum/#ixzz1hs81AXXN

Rick ran few effective ads like Governor Palin gave him some kind of
quasi endorsement.

Result: Rick Santorum surges from almost bottom to #3!

SARAH PALIN POWER!!!

“SUDDEN AND RELENTLESS REFORM”-SARAH PALIN

TEX on December 28, 2011 at 5:48 PM

How can CNN make such a huge mistake with the polling sample. I’m guessing somebody is losing their job.

ModerateMan on December 28, 2011 at 5:16 PM

Usually CNN doesn’t make their polling samples public.

As for losing jobs, don’t hold your breath. This is CNN, remember?

OT: i really don’t like wolfie, just saw him badgering mitt on being transparent…what a crock!!!! where was your badgering of dear leader’s information???

liberal putz

cmsinaz on December 28, 2011 at 5:26 PM

Only reason History Major Wolfie still has a job at CNN is because he quite literally lives at CNN Headquarters and refuses to leave. He’s working for room and board.

Del Dolemonte on December 28, 2011 at 5:50 PM

My God, Santorum is a horrible candidate. He looks like a rat with dentures, and his persona radiates neediness, desperation, and barely supressed hysteria. I am surprised he has not slipped on his own flop sweat stepping off the podium during his horrific debate performances. His career in the Senate was pointless, he was caught up in the John Ensign mess (Family Values!), and has been a hack lawyer since he was thrown out of the Senate by 59% of his constituents. Last I looked stumping for income inequality and the repeal of DADT is not the recipe for a successful Presidential run. If Mike Huckabee, a far more accomplished, intelligent, articulate, and charming candidate, couldn’t make it in 2008 against John McCain, Santorum doesn’t stand a chance. He will barely make a dent in Iowa and then, hopefully, go away.

Mr. Arkadin on December 28, 2011 at 5:52 PM

hey rick isn’t mitt he has my vote.

unseen on December 28, 2011 at 5:53 PM

Jan 3rd, and Romney still can’t get poll over 25%.

Dr Evil on December 28, 2011 at 4:39 PM

At this point Perry, Newt and Santorum would cream their own pants to have those kind of numbers.

Romney is peaking at the right time, game on over.

hanzblinx on December 28, 2011 at 5:54 PM

Mr. Arkadin on December 28, 2011 at 5:52 PM

Yeah, but he’s the last not-Romney who hasn’t been caught shtupping the help or otherwise obviously disqualifying himself in the eyes of the rubes of corn town.

MJBrutus on December 28, 2011 at 5:55 PM

Herman who?

KornKing on December 28, 2011 at 5:56 PM

A palin endorsement brings lots of cash.

Utica681 on December 28, 2011 at 5:48 PM

The only person she will endorse is Romney. I’d be happy to bet on it too.

hanzblinx on December 28, 2011 at 6:01 PM

Who actually likes/respects Erick Erickson? I tried to give Red State a shot and was blown away by the poorly written articles. They were so dead wrong on so many issues that it got me thinking about who exactly reads his crap. Any Erick Erickson fans here to explain his appeal?

ModerateMan on December 28, 2011 at 6:02 PM

My God, Santorum is a horrible candidate. He looks like a rat with dentures, and his persona radiates neediness, desperation, and barely supressed hysteria.

Mr. Arkadin on December 28, 2011 at 5:52 PM

..one of the two great take-aways from this thread. This image is absolutely fabulous! (I do like Senator Santorum, though.) The other is that thoroughly presious term, HISPANDERING.

*scribbles in tattered notebook*

The War Planner on December 28, 2011 at 6:04 PM

Rick Santorum creeps me out. It’s a gut feeling I have about him that something isn’t right, and I 99.27% of the time trust my gut.

SouthernGent on December 28, 2011 at 6:12 PM

THOMAS SOWELL ENDORSES NEWT GINGRICH !

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2826065/posts

stenwin77 on December 28, 2011 at 6:14 PM

Santorum has zero… zero… zero chance.

NONE (or NUN) !

He’d make a great priest, except for the 9 kids thing. But a dull, horrible president.

stenwin77 on December 28, 2011 at 6:15 PM

If Palin endorses Romney, she will be forever and ever DONE in politics.

stenwin77 on December 28, 2011 at 6:16 PM

Santorum couldn’t win his home state, which kicked him out by almost 20 points after they realized he was a Bible-thumper with little interest in or understanding of spending or taxes or jobs in a state that primarily cares about economics. I say this as someone who voted for him in that beating.

The reason everyone says this benefits Romney is because it does. Gingrich and Perry’s support isn’t going away, not until it’s too late anyway. Those two are obviously more electable (Bachmann, Santorum, Paul) or less liberal (Romney, Huntsman, Paul) than the alternatives. That means that the nominee will be Romney, Perry, or Gingrich. You can vote for none of the above, but that means the establishment will mark your vote for Romney. Them’s just the facts.

HitNRun on December 28, 2011 at 6:22 PM

Thanks Iowa. Thanks for sticking us with Mitt.

juliesa on December 28, 2011 at 6:22 PM

If Palin endorses Romney, she will be forever and ever DONE in politics.

stenwin77 on December 28, 2011 at 6:16 PM

In case you missed it she quit politics to be a FOX news contributer and reality TV star. She was done a long time ago.

How many times does reality have to hit you in the face before you get it?

hanzblinx on December 28, 2011 at 6:22 PM

Oh goody, another surge! Wonder what will happen next? lol

kg598301 on December 28, 2011 at 6:27 PM

badly underestimating support for Paul, who’s cleaning up among Democrats and independents who are planning to vote in the caucuses.

Democrats and independents – the only “true conservatives”, or so a Paulnut told me.

peski on December 28, 2011 at 6:30 PM

By the way, do you think Ebeneser Huntsman will ever jump into the race?

peski on December 28, 2011 at 6:31 PM

Del Dolemonte on December 28, 2011 at 5:50 PM

heh

cmsinaz on December 28, 2011 at 6:37 PM

Any Erick Erickson fans here to explain his appeal?

ModerateMan on December 28, 2011 at 6:02 PM

I’m not really a fan, but I once called Erick’s radio show earlier this year to discuss the election. I basically told him that I was probably throwing in with Romney for strategic reasons (I cited some polls), and he was courteous and respectful and not at all disagreeable with my point of view. But, he seems to be a completely different person on his blog. Maybe he didn’t want to be rude on the radio – I dunno.

What doesn’t make sense to me is that if you value electability/organization over purity, you’ll go with Mitt. If you want purity, it seems like your options are Bachmann or Santorum and to a lesser extent Perry. True, Bachmann and Perry have more organization, but at least Santorum won’t go around making an ass out of himself saying something idiotic. No amount of organization can save you if continually shoot yourself in the foot with idiotic or outlandish statements. Santorum may offend some people with his strong Christian world view, but at least he can’t easily be portrayed as an idiot like the other two.

The Count on December 28, 2011 at 6:40 PM

but I think he is a man that can rise to the occasion.

Spirit Crusher on December 28, 2011 at 5:28

Though presumably not through the back passage …

Seriously guys, you have the hots for a guy who obsesses about OTHER people analysing each other?

You know that kind of guy would get about 25 percent in the GE?

Hope on December 28, 2011 at 6:41 PM

Erick Erickson is a joke and so is his entire site. If he had his way we’d all be watching Rick Perry attempting to remember his lines while debating Obama. He’s part of the anti-Romney establishemnt and a hater, nothing more.

1punchWill on December 28, 2011 at 6:51 PM

The only person she will endorse is Romney. I’d be happy to bet on it too.

hanzblinx on December 28, 2011 at 6:01 PM

A romney primary endorsement! HA. And I thought paulbots were delusional!

Flapjackmaka on December 28, 2011 at 6:54 PM

peski on December 28, 2011 at 6:30 PM

Something to think about when you see that, Paul is growing the GOP.

If you knew what they’re upset about over Obama, you’d know why they’re turning to Paul.

gyrmnix on December 28, 2011 at 6:56 PM

Meanwhile Mitt starts to clean up and look toward the general.

WOOWHOO!!!

1punchWill on December 28, 2011 at 6:57 PM

YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!

President Romney will do great!

Jailbreak on December 28, 2011 at 4:34 PM

I’m with ya! Mitt hasn’t promised pie in the sky nostrums. He’s laid out a REAL agenda that does what’s needed to get this country moving in the right direction. From entitlement reform along the lines of Paul Ryan to the RIGHT type of tax reform (lower cap gains, territorial tax, etc). Mitt understands the role of government in such areas as basic R&D (sorry purists but no private company is going to build a super-conducting super collider, for example) and not as venture capitalists (Solyndra, etc).

He’s not telling the radicals what they want to hear and they resent not being pandered to. So sad.

However, the rest of America isn’t being chased away, running and screaming, or howling in derision at the ridiculous promises being thrown around. No 9-9-9 gimmicks. No war on the courts. No 1/2 time Congress promises for Mitt. Instead of playing, “can you top this” Mitt is treating the voters with respect. His strategy will pay off big once he sews up the nomination. Which will be in about 3 weeks!

MJBrutus on December 28, 2011 at 5:18 PM

YEEESSSSS!!!!!!!! Romney is the only contender who can defeat Obama next year. Couldn’t have said it better than you! Yes…thank goodness, our electorate has opened their eyes.

Redford on December 28, 2011 at 6:59 PM

I’m not a big Palin fan, but I believe a Santorum/Palin ticket would rock!

Norky on December 28, 2011 at 6:59 PM

I hate that we have lost this race to Obama…….already. The only one that could have outworded him on the fly was Gingrich and even he makes mistakes. Romney is so liberal that the tea partiers won’t vote for him. Santorum couldn’t WIN RE-ELECTION IN HIS OWN STATE. Ron Paul? The guy who wouldn’t send help to the end the holocaust? Oh brother if there was emoticons on here I’d choose one that had rolling eyes. What a LOON.

No wonder that Obama is up 5 points for doing nothing but going surfing and golfing. Everyone on our side looks BAD making dumbo ears look GOOD.

Un-freaking-believable how WEAK the republican bench was to go against a community organizer.

Our only hope at this point? A convention appointment – Christie, Rubio, Palin, – someone who gets picked after the “nominee” has been pummeled to DEATH by the media and at the convention a newbie is chosen – there’s a short window for the face/name to be ooh’d and aah’d over (as well as torn a new one by the other side) and we all vote for them.

Or its 4 more years of Oh No Obama.

athenadelphi on December 28, 2011 at 7:00 PM

YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!

President Romney will do great!

Jailbreak on December 28, 2011 at 4:34 PM

I’m with ya! Mitt hasn’t promised pie in the sky nostrums. He’s laid out a REAL agenda that does what’s needed to get this country moving in the right direction. From entitlement reform along the lines of Paul Ryan to the RIGHT type of tax reform (lower cap gains, territorial tax, etc). Mitt understands the role of government in such areas as basic R&D (sorry purists but no private company is going to build a super-conducting super collider, for example) and not as venture capitalists (Solyndra, etc).

He’s not telling the radicals what they want to hear and they resent not being pandered to. So sad.

However, the rest of America isn’t being chased away, running and screaming, or howling in derision at the ridiculous promises being thrown around. No 9-9-9 gimmicks. No war on the courts. No 1/2 time Congress promises for Mitt. Instead of playing, “can you top this” Mitt is treating the voters with respect. His strategy will pay off big once he sews up the nomination. Which will be in about 3 weeks!

MJBrutus on December 28, 2011 at 5:18 PM

YEEESSSSS!!!!!!!! Romney is the only contender who can defeat Obama next year. Couldn’t have said it better than you! Yes…thank goodness, our electorate has opened their eyes.

Redford on December 28, 2011 at 6:59 PM

Oh brother – Look you Mitt-heads/true believers. Democrats make up 48% of the country. Republicans make up 47% of the country. Independents make up 3%. Most of the tea partiers/libertarians (those on the RIGHT of the spectrum) are in the indie group. So, NOOOOOOOO Mitt not pandering to the tea partiers means Mitt won’t get the 3% he needs to cross the finish line. They’ll sit it out. So its OBAMA to win, not MITT (mccain all over again) who is even using the same lack of fire to go after Obama (just like mccain). You guys can’t see history repeating itself and it only happened 4 years ago? Short memory spans. Obama and his surrogates are going to fight with fire. Mitt? He’s already declared a truce in language. We’ve lost already with Mitt.

athenadelphi on December 28, 2011 at 7:17 PM

Relax brah, Romney’s got this.

1punchWill on December 28, 2011 at 7:18 PM

Santorum’s Rising in IA has the potential to pick up steam quickly amongst grassroots…esp with the Harris twins from Huck’s Army behind him now and their state coordinators in 49 states. Santorum will do very well in IA and hit double digits in NH…perhaps mid/high teens. South Carolina’s conservatism plays right into Santorum’s hand and with enough time and grassroots, he may surprise there too.

Deep Timber on December 28, 2011 at 7:25 PM

Santorum couldn’t WIN RE-ELECTION IN HIS OWN STATE

Doesn’t matter. All that matters is that Obama is an abysmal failure as President. Republicans had a horrible year in 2006, and there were other factors involved that led to Santorum’s loss. Just like the Democrats had a horrible year in 2010 and, by God’s grace, will again in 2012. If every person who failed once gave up after that, Lincoln would not have been President and Churchill would not have been Prime Minister. There are other examples out there. I like Santorum. He’s been my pick from the start. Give him a chance. Christie I do not like. He is great for sound bites and has some good positions, but he is less conservative than Mitt Romney. Palin has been too demonized to win against Obama. Maybe in a few cycles. Rubio could do it, but I don’t think he’s interested.

Othniel on December 28, 2011 at 7:29 PM

Santorum will not win. No money. No organization.

andy85719 on December 28, 2011 at 7:32 PM

This election is turning out to be like Sophie’s Choice.

digitalhap on December 28, 2011 at 7:32 PM

Is he a disease?

;-)

Good Lt on December 28, 2011 at 5:14 PM

and the only cure…more huntsman-bell

t8stlikchkn on December 28, 2011 at 7:32 PM

Santorum will not win. No money. No organization.

andy85719 on December 28, 2011 at 7:32 PM

If Herman Cain can raise $10M in 23 days don’t discard Santorum’s ability either–particularly as we get farther into the campaign and other candidates drop out. Organization? Santorum is one 30-second smoking YouTube video from having significant organization and name recognition.

Deep Timber on December 28, 2011 at 7:39 PM

Fred! 2008 2012

digitalhap on December 28, 2011 at 7:40 PM

When the two top Republican contenders are a Socialist and a nutty fruitcake,there is no doubt that either:

Iowans are ignorant throwbacks

The Republican Party is irrelevant

or both are correct.

We are so screwed!

they lie on December 28, 2011 at 7:41 PM

Santorum will not win. No money. No organization.

andy85719 on December 28, 2011 at 7:32 PM

If Herman Cain can raise $10M in 23 days don’t discard Santorum’s ability either–particularly as we get farther into the campaign and other candidates drop out. Organization? Santorum is one 30-second smoking YouTube video from having significant organization and name recognition.

Deep Timber on December 28, 2011 at 7:39 PM

I don’t know. Cain at least could fire up a crowd. People were passionate about Cain. Not so much–who am I kidding? Not at all passionate for Santorum.

digitalhap on December 28, 2011 at 7:44 PM

NO…BASICALLY ANYONE CAN VOTE IN THE CAUCUS.
READ HERE:

But, in a closely watched twist, voters can switch party affiliation at the caucus and register as Republicans that night.

“From a process standpoint, it’s a nightmare,” said Dallas County Republican chairman Mike Elam, “but I think it’s a good thing. People can decide they want to be involved up to the very last minute.”

Republicans this year hope that ability leads to a surge of registrations from disgruntled Democrats and independents. But the practice also allows potential cross-party sabotage, where members of one party can participate in a rival caucus in order to vote for the candidate they see as the weakest potential opponent.

All registrations must be complete by 7 p.m., when the caucuses begin, in order for people to participate.
AS YOU CAN SEE….ANYONE CAN VOTE. ALSO…IN A STATE THAT HAS MORE REGISTERED DEMS AND INDY’S….THEY CAN SWITCH THAT NIGHT. NICE HUH?
coach1228 on December 28, 2011 at 4:50 PM

This is outrageous!!! You can change your party of the day of?? What a joke!

If we ever want to stop fraud this needs to be priority one! Demand that your local leaders stop this nonsense.

Here in NH, you don’t even need an ID to vote!

LevinFan on December 28, 2011 at 7:45 PM

So, Erick Erickson is dumping on Santorum, arguably the most serious, credible conservative candidate running, in favor of non-conservative Newt, goofball Perry and tardasil Bachmann. Got it.

The Count on December 28, 2011 at 5:16 PM

I’d be fine with either MB or Santorum.

It comes down to their records.

Santorum voted for No Child Left Behind and Medicare Part D.

MB led 40,000 patriots to DC to fight Obamacare, fought for the incandescent light bulb, voted no on TARP, fought the RINO establishment over $108B in funding for Obamacare in the continuing resolutions, and voted no on the debt ceiling.

MB has the best track record of sticking to her principles of anyone in the race.

LevinFan on December 28, 2011 at 7:47 PM

Santorum had enough nerve to tell the Iowa farmers that he was against the ethanol subsidy (and then went hunting with them).

The man has guts.

Both Romney and Gingrich both are pandering to big corn by supporting corn based ethanol.

I would prefer a man who would tell the truth in spite of political fall-out.

Alferd Packer on December 28, 2011 at 7:49 PM

I like Rick, but he ain’t gonna win. For starters, the debates for him have been ho-hum. He has a good family story, but he did lose reelection by 15%, I think.

ConservativePartyNow on December 28, 2011 at 5:23 PM

I seem to remember a former vice president who ran for Governor of California and lost prior to getting elected President.

Santorum is the only not-Mitt who hasn’t stuck both feet in his mouth and chewed on them. One not-Mitt stuck both feet in his mouth while being bombed by the Japanese.

Santorum has little money and no organization. What can make him a viable candidate? Sarah Palin’s endorsement.

Remember, in a moment of candor, Newsweek’s Evan Thomas said that media support (bias) was worth 15% to Kerry-Edwards in 2004. It’s still worth at least 10%, an obstacle any Republican must overcome.

bw222 on December 28, 2011 at 7:51 PM

So, Erick Erickson is dumping on Santorum, arguably the most serious, credible conservative candidate running, in favor of non-conservative Newt, goofball Perry and tardasil Bachmann. Got it.

The Count on December 28, 2011 at 5:16 PM

I quit reading and posting at Red State. I got tired oof Kmow-it-all Ericksin telling me I was stupid if I didn’t agree with him. He’s an arrogant SOB.

Deanna on December 28, 2011 at 7:52 PM

THIS IS BULL. We bought and paid for Iowa already./ Ron Paul

hawkdriver on December 28, 2011 at 7:52 PM

If Santorum can pull off the nomination I’ll vote for him against Barry gladly.

Best of luck Rick.

profitsbeard on December 28, 2011 at 7:56 PM

Seriously, Hot Air can’t even give Senator Santorum his day in the sun!! Once people start to give him crediblity, they will realize he is the better alternative to Mitt/Newt. PPP polls democrats and since they can’t vote it makes the PPP polls irrelevant. Rick’s the only one who has a proven record of being a “true conservative” and has done more to move legislation through then any of the other candidates who are currently serving in Congress. First of all, he won a Congressional seat in a Blue State, and won two elections as a Senator in a Blue State and ran as a Conservative in a Blue State. The only election Mitt Romney won was the Governor and he won as a liberal not as a conservative and only served for 2.5 years. The rest of the time he was out of state campaigning for President. Oh and by the way, Mitt Romney lost his bid for the Senate seat against Ted Kennedy in a Republican year by 17 points, while in the same year Senator Santorum won against a Democratic incumbent.

nhgop on December 28, 2011 at 7:56 PM

SouthernGent on December 28, 2011 at 6:12 PM

I agree. I’ve got the same gut feeling, and I had the same feeling with Huntsman — just something not right there.

athenadelphi on December 28, 2011 at 7:17 PM

Don’t know where you’re getting your data, but the most recent I’ve seen has the country at about 35% democrat, 35% Republican, leaving about 30% unaffiliated. By ideology, 42% call themselves “conservative,” while only 21% say they’re “liberal” and 36% say they’re “moderate.” In such an environment, a Romney win over the failed Obama is more likely than not.

Rational Thought on December 28, 2011 at 7:56 PM

I don’t know. Cain at least could fire up a crowd. People were passionate about Cain. Not so much–who am I kidding? Not at all passionate for Santorum.

digitalhap on December 28, 2011 at 7:44 PM

Have you seen his Hollidaysburg, PA speech on YouTube? His Tea Party ones? Check ‘em out. He holds crowds and audiences attention much better than most in IA–particularly the Right To Life forum from 2 weeks ago.

Deep Timber on December 28, 2011 at 7:57 PM

nhgop on December 28, 2011 at 7:56 PM

Look, Kennedy killed a woman, and helped his nephew cover up a violent rape, and he still got elected over and over. It was going to take a lot more than Mitt Romney to unseat him. As it turned out, he had to die in order to be removed from office, and if that state’s democrat apparatus could have stuffed his fat corpse and propped it up in his Senate seat, they would have, and he’d still be voting. Saying Romney lost to Kennedy as some kind of argument against his perceived electability is just silly.

Rational Thought on December 28, 2011 at 8:05 PM

Go Rick! Gain momentum and keep on rolling. When stuff like this happens, things get interesting (in a good way).

Philly on December 28, 2011 at 8:05 PM

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