CNN Iowa poll: Romney 25, Paul 22, Santorum 16, Gingrich 14

posted at 4:29 pm on December 28, 2011 by Allahpundit

You know who this benefits?

In Iowa, both Romney and Paul are each up five points among likely caucus goers from a CNN/Time/ORC poll conducted at the start of December. The new survey indicates that Santorum, the former senator from Pennsylvania, is at 16% support, up 11 points from the beginning of the month, with Gingrich at 14%, down from 33% in the previous poll. Since Gingrich’s rise late last month and early this month in both national and early voting state surveys, he’s come under attack by many of the rival campaigns…

Santorum is campaigning on a shoestring budget, but he’s visited all of Iowa’s 99 counties and has made a strong pitch towards social conservative voters, who are very influential here in Iowa on the Republican side. Wednesday Santorum was up with a new radio spot on Hawkeye State airwaves touting endorsements by social conservative leaders. His pitch may be starting to pay off.

“Most of Santorum’s gains have come among likely caucus participants who are born-again or evangelical, and he now tops the list among that crucial voting bloc, with support from 22% of born-agains compared to 18% for Paul, 16% for Romney, and 14% for Gingrich,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

So there’s the long-awaited Santorum surge among social cons, who are finally giving him a first look at the perfect moment after flirtations this fall with Bachmann, Perry, Cain, and Gingrich. Two caveats, though, one minor and one major. The minor: PPP’s poll published this morning found Santorum stuck at 10 percent, still behind Gingrich and Bachmann. Are their numbers the outlier or are CNN’s? The major: According to the crosstabs, CNN only polled … registered Republicans in Iowa. That means they’re badly underestimating support for Paul, who’s cleaning up among Democrats and independents who are planning to vote in the caucuses. They polled New Hampshire too and did a bit better with that sample, including indies who are likely to vote (Romney leads Paul there by nearly 30 points), but I’m not sure the Iowa data is worth anything. Stick with PPP’s numbers for the time being: Paul 24, Romney 20, Gingrich 13, Bachmann 11.

Got an update or two coming, so stand by.

Update: WaPo quantifies the flaw in CNN’s poll: “in early Dec. Post-ABC Iowa poll, registerd GOP were 83% of potential caucusgoers, with Paul about 2X better among non-Reps.” And PPP notes that if they made CNN’s sample mistake, they’d also have had Romney ahead of Paul.

Update: Erick Erickson sees Romney’s dream coming true:

Santorum has no money or organization outside of Iowa and cannot win the nomination, but Iowans love a guy who sucks up to them and makes sure they know he loves the babies.

As a pro-lifer myself, I have to throw up a bit in my mouth that Iowa conservatives are seriously considering Rick Santorum, which will only help Mitt Romney, a guy who even after his supposedly heartfelt conversion to life put some seriously pro-abortion judges on the Massachusetts bench hiding behind the “Well it was Massachusetts for Pete’s sake” defense…

Rick Santorum is more conservative than Mitt Romney. He is a strong social conservative and has taken a lot of bullets from the left because of his stand. But he is not as strong a fiscal conservative as he claims and the real issue here is social conservatives in Iowa risk Mitt Romney’s election by supporting a guy who cannot get traction or money outside of Iowa.

Rick Santorum will not be the nominee. That’s the reality. But his rise hurts Bachmann, Gingrich, and Perry in Iowa — all of whom have better organizations and better shots beyond Iowa.

Philip Klein also imagines Romney gleefully rubbing his hands at the new dynamic. Santorum’s been following the same underpants-gnome strategy in Iowa as Huntsman has in New Hampshire:

Step one: Camp out there and become the de facto hometown favorite/Not Romney
Step two: Win
Step three: ????
Step four: Nominee!

Step three, I guess, is “momentum,” but momentum works a lot better when you have money and organization to help carry it forward. The only way Santorum becomes a real long-term threat, I think, is if he and Paul finish in the top two in Iowa and then Paul shocks Romney in New Hampshire. (Which is unlikely: Mitt’s now a 90 percent favorite there according to Nate Silver’s model.) That would leave Romney smelling like a loser and would set Santorum up for a possible win in South Carolina. Even then, I’m not sure how he’d outlast Romney in Florida and then in the long slog for delegates on Super Tuesday and beyond, but it would establish him as the lone remaining alternative to Mitt and Ron Paul for conservatives who can’t stomach either.


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From the crosstabs:

BASED ON INTERVIEWS WITH 452 REGISTERED REPUBLICANS WHO ARE LIKELY TO
ATTEND THE IOWA REPUBLICAN CAUCUS IN THEIR COMMUNITY

Isn’t this flawed methodology? Correct me if I’m wrong, but can’t Independents (and Dems) caucus as well?

limitedgovt on December 28, 2011 at 4:31 PM

Um, no.

Good Lt on December 28, 2011 at 4:32 PM

Santorum is like a much smarter version of Rick Perry.

therightwinger on December 28, 2011 at 4:32 PM

Good for Santorum

darwin on December 28, 2011 at 4:33 PM

Not really sure why they would poll Republicans only…

conservativechristian on December 28, 2011 at 4:33 PM

Stuck at 10%? Behind Perry and Bachmann?

I dont think so. I think they all three had 10% or 11%, and that Santorum ahd been running about five points behind Perry and Bachmann.

So by both polls there is significant movement for Santorum. Newt and Perry are cooked.

swamp_yankee on December 28, 2011 at 4:33 PM

Next up: the Lamar Alexander surge!

/

mankai on December 28, 2011 at 4:33 PM

Iowa is not very important. Romney wins, he secures his position. If RuPaul wins, Romney wins because RuPaul is less credible than RuPaul.

andy85719 on December 28, 2011 at 4:33 PM

^ Allah pointed this out, my B.

limitedgovt on December 28, 2011 at 4:33 PM

I will go to my grave just disgusted with the fact that a national political party allows people who won’t vote for them to have a hand in choosing the candidate. Ron Paul? Really?
Seriously- it’s absolutely insane.

jjshaka on December 28, 2011 at 4:33 PM

YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!

President Romney will do great!

Jailbreak on December 28, 2011 at 4:34 PM

Just as Romney starts to spend money in IA to up his numbers… he opens his mouth and inserts his foot.

Didn’t he try something like this back in 2008, as well?

ajacksonian on December 28, 2011 at 4:35 PM

If the CNN poll is even close to accurate, Rick Perry can go back to Austin.
Those were his voters Santorum just got.

jjshaka on December 28, 2011 at 4:35 PM

Isn’t this flawed methodology? Correct me if I’m wrong, but can’t Independents (and Dems) caucus as well?

limitedgovt on December 28, 2011 at 4:31 PM

You know what’s usually a good idea before commenting? Reading the post. I know our new Paul-fan registrees think this is some kind of Ron Paul bulletin board, but it really isn’t.

Allahpundit on December 28, 2011 at 4:37 PM

Lies, dirty lies, and statistics…

Boodad on December 28, 2011 at 4:37 PM

Stick with PPP’s numbers for the time being: Paul 24, Romney 20, Gingrich 13, Bachmann 11.

Also, keep reading Daily Kos for up-to-date, unbiased information on the GOP primaries.

C’mon, AP.

Red Cloud on December 28, 2011 at 4:37 PM

Santorum surge?

haner on December 28, 2011 at 4:37 PM

“Only registered Republicans can participate in the Iowa Republican presidential caucuses”

I think CNN is confused.

conservativechristian on December 28, 2011 at 4:37 PM

Whether or not this poll is THE outlier, it does show one thing… that there has been serious momentum for santorum. It might be a little late to knock him down before tuesday with no debates left this year.

Go Santorum!

Utica681 on December 28, 2011 at 4:37 PM

Allahpundit is angry!! lol

davemason2k on December 28, 2011 at 4:37 PM

jjshaka on December 28, 2011 at 4:33 PM

I’m all for starting a “NO crossover voting in primaries” movement.

listens2glenn on December 28, 2011 at 4:37 PM

you have to be a Registered Republican to vote in Iowa, can change up to day of. CNN likely accounting for that

jp on December 28, 2011 at 4:38 PM

jjshaka on December 28, 2011 at 4:35 PM

I agree this does not look good for Perry..:)

Dire Straits on December 28, 2011 at 4:38 PM

PPP had Romney up 2 among republicans.

CNN has Romney up 3 among republicans.

Same thing! Why is Drudge proclaiming a Romney surge?

The better question is why didn’t CNN include independent and democrats who plan to attend the caucus?

NewLiberty on December 28, 2011 at 4:39 PM

Stupid Party: how about you close the caucuses to oh I don’t know, people who belong to the party? Is that too crazy?

angryed on December 28, 2011 at 4:39 PM

This is interesting this close to the Iowa caucus – Jan 3rd, and Romney still can’t get poll over 25%. Well he’s consistent.

Dr Evil on December 28, 2011 at 4:39 PM

Seems like Santorum is our best bet. I can live with that.

These polls raises expectations for Romney too. If he fails to win or get a close second in Iowa, he will be damaged goods.

New Hamshire is meaningless, the real contest after Iowa is South Carolina.

Norwegian on December 28, 2011 at 4:40 PM

Also, keep reading Daily Kos for up-to-date, unbiased information on the GOP primaries.

C’mon, AP.

PPP had a good record this year. Unless you think they’re cooking their numbers outright, why doubt them? Liberals can conduct a worthwhile poll too.

Allahpundit on December 28, 2011 at 4:40 PM

Cantorum has worked hard in Iowa..Good to see it paying off..:)

Dire Straits on December 28, 2011 at 4:40 PM

If the CNN poll is even close to accurate, Rick Perry can go back to Austin.
Those were his voters Santorum just got.

jjshaka on December 28, 2011 at 4:35 PM

That would explain the whole rape and incest pander from Perry.

haner on December 28, 2011 at 4:40 PM

Willard has been running non-stop for 5 years. And he can’t get more than 1 in 4 Republicans to support him. That’s a recipe for a Reagan like sweep of the land.

RINO/RINO 2012!

angryed on December 28, 2011 at 4:41 PM

Santorum doesn’t have a realistic shot at the nomination, but it’s nice to see him get some attention anyway.

whatcat on December 28, 2011 at 4:42 PM

Seriously, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum? I ****ing hate Iowa. Ugh, AllahP, its melting bunny time.

Lawdawg86 on December 28, 2011 at 4:42 PM

Santorum could very well do well in Iowa, but not many other states have enough voters who like Big Gov peeking through the bedroom blinds to push him to the top.

andy85719 on December 28, 2011 at 4:42 PM

You know what’s usually a good idea before commenting? Reading the post. I know our new Paul-fan registrees think this is some kind of Ron Paul bulletin board, but it really isn’t.

Allahpundit on December 28, 2011 at 4:37 PM

And who do I blame for flooding our serene community with Paulbots?

*Tapping foot*

/joking. :)

TheRightMan on December 28, 2011 at 4:42 PM

Is that too crazy?

angryed on December 28, 2011 at 4:39 PM

But then Rush couldn’t launch Operation Chaos…

Bradky on December 28, 2011 at 4:42 PM

This is interesting this close to the Iowa caucus – Jan 3rd, and Romney still can’t get poll over 25%. Well he’s consistent.

Dr Evil on December 28, 2011 at 4:39 PM

In his defense I don’t think he has spent a lot of time and money there..Unlike my candidate of choice Rick Perry..:)

Dire Straits on December 28, 2011 at 4:42 PM

If the CNN poll is even close to accurate, Rick Perry can go back to Austin.
Those were his voters Santorum just got.
jjshaka on December 28, 2011 at 4:35 PM

That would explain the whole rape and incest pander from Perry.
haner on December 28, 2011 at 4:40 PM

Interesting observations.

whatcat on December 28, 2011 at 4:43 PM

What a mess all of this is! We got a weak field and if anyone denies it is just fooling themselves. Most Voters probably would have chosen non-above if they could

journeymike on December 28, 2011 at 4:43 PM

Santorum is like a much smarter version of Rick Perry, who lost his last election and has no executive experience.

therightwinger on December 28, 2011 at 4:32 PM

FIFY.

Bill C on December 28, 2011 at 4:43 PM

I am a Paul guy but the last few weeks I’ve been wondering why Santorum isn’t doing better. He’s been more consistent than Newt-Romney and more conservative. In many ways Santorum seems to be the HotAir.Com candidate. The only thing is, he’s very big on the social issues and pushes it hard – and the country just isn’t that worried about those issues right now.

fatlibertarianinokc on December 28, 2011 at 4:43 PM

Santorum has worked hard in Iowa..Good to see it paying off..:)

Dire Straits on December 28, 2011 at 4:40 PM

Sorry..:)

Dire Straits on December 28, 2011 at 4:44 PM

You can stick a fork in Gingrich. Likability is a very important factor in voting and Newt and Callista are the most likable couple in the race.

My guess is that many of the people who left Newt went to Santorum.

bw222 on December 28, 2011 at 4:45 PM

I know our new Paul-fan registrees think this is some kind of Ron Paul bulletin board, but it really isn’t.

Allahpundit on December 28, 2011 at 4:37 PM

+ 100..rofl..:)

Dire Straits on December 28, 2011 at 4:45 PM

If Allah won’t do it I will, the time has come.

Lawdawg86 on December 28, 2011 at 4:45 PM

If the CNN poll is even close to accurate, Rick Perry can go back to Austin.
Those were his voters Santorum just got.

jjshaka on December 28, 2011 at 4:35 PM

That would explain the whole rape and incest pander from Perry.

haner on December 28, 2011 at 4:40 PM

Mittbots can’t get Perry out of their minds, right?

Perry will be the nominee and you better believe it.

This poll actually encourages that view. It means not many Republicans are buying the Romney-Paul-Gingrich frontrunner schtick.

Can Perry, Bachmann, and Santorum surprise those three?

You betcha!

TheRightMan on December 28, 2011 at 4:46 PM

11th plague visited upon egypt, but too horrible to be mentioned in the bible: A Republican primary.

Valkyriepundit on December 28, 2011 at 4:46 PM

As far as Santorum goes, he doesn’t have enough time to get to where Paul and Romney are at the top. And I don’t think he has any campaign outside of the state.

conservativechristian on December 28, 2011 at 4:46 PM

And who do I blame for flooding our serene community with Paulbots?

*Tapping foot*

/joking. :)

TheRightMan on December 28, 2011 at 4:42 PM

They’ll be gone after the primaries just like csdeven disappeared after Romney lost.

Bill C on December 28, 2011 at 4:46 PM

You know what’s usually a good idea before commenting? Reading the post. I know our new Paul-fan registrees think this is some kind of Ron Paul bulletin board, but it really isn’t.

Allahpundit on December 28, 2011 at 4:37 PM

On a very cranky day – this made me laugh. Thanks AP :)

gophergirl on December 28, 2011 at 4:47 PM

Santorum is like a much smarter version of Rick Perry.

therightwinger on December 28, 2011 at 4:32 PM

You mean Santorum governed a state for 11 years and has never lost an election?

Oh wait…

TheRightMan on December 28, 2011 at 4:48 PM

gophergirl on December 28, 2011 at 4:47 PM

This is not looking good for Team Perry..:(

Dire Straits on December 28, 2011 at 4:49 PM

CNN only polled … registered Republicans in Iowa. That means they’re badly underestimating support for Paul, who’s cleaning up among Democrats and independents who are planning to vote in the caucuses.

This.

(dammit.)

Tim_CA on December 28, 2011 at 4:49 PM

What a mess all of this is! We got a weak field and if anyone denies it is just fooling themselves. Most Voters probably would have chosen non-above if they could

journeymike on December 28, 2011 at 4:43 PM

It’s still all dependent on who get’s their voters out to vote for them. That’s where the strength comes from the campaign’s ground organization. It’s all about who finally shows up, and how excited they are about voting for their candidate.

Dr Evil on December 28, 2011 at 4:49 PM

Also, keep reading Daily Kos for up-to-date, unbiased information on the GOP primaries.
C’mon, AP.

PPP had a good record this year. Unless you think they’re cooking their numbers outright, why doubt them? Liberals can conduct a worthwhile poll too.
Allahpundit on December 28, 2011 at 4:40 PM

RCP, which is pretty reliable, certainly takes PPP results seriously enough to incorporate it’s them into their data. Though I suspect CNN probably has the better take on this – at this time, at least.

whatcat on December 28, 2011 at 4:50 PM

“Only registered Republicans can participate in the Iowa Republican presidential caucuses”

I think CNN is confused.

conservativechristian on December 28, 2011 at 4:37 PM

NO…BASICALLY ANYONE CAN VOTE IN THE CAUCUS.
READ HERE:

But, in a closely watched twist, voters can switch party affiliation at the caucus and register as Republicans that night.

“From a process standpoint, it’s a nightmare,” said Dallas County Republican chairman Mike Elam, “but I think it’s a good thing. People can decide they want to be involved up to the very last minute.”

Republicans this year hope that ability leads to a surge of registrations from disgruntled Democrats and independents. But the practice also allows potential cross-party sabotage, where members of one party can participate in a rival caucus in order to vote for the candidate they see as the weakest potential opponent.

All registrations must be complete by 7 p.m., when the caucuses begin, in order for people to participate.

AS YOU CAN SEE….ANYONE CAN VOTE. ALSO…IN A STATE THAT HAS MORE REGISTERED DEMS AND INDY’S….THEY CAN SWITCH THAT NIGHT. NICE HUH?

coach1228 on December 28, 2011 at 4:50 PM

Why are we still talking about Perry? He is third tier.

andy85719 on December 28, 2011 at 4:51 PM

This is not looking good for Team Perry..:(

Dire Straits on December 28, 2011 at 4:49 PM

It’s funny – pictures from his bus tour show such a different story than the polls do. It will be interesting to see what the actual vote is on Tuesday.

I’ll be sad if he doesn’t make it but it is what it is. Sometimes the best candidate doesn’t always win.

gophergirl on December 28, 2011 at 4:52 PM

this is a sign: the rachael huntsman train is getting ready to start up as soon as they hit NH. i can feel it.

t8stlikchkn on December 28, 2011 at 4:52 PM

Willard has been running non-stop for 5 years. And he can’t get more than 1 in 4 Republicans to support him. That’s a recipe for a Reagan like sweep of the land.

RINO/RINO 2012!

angryed on December 28, 2011 at 4:41 PM

Reagan lost the Iowa primary in 1980 to GHWB, and he was running 24 points behind Jimmy Carter in January 1980. Reagan wasn’t Reagan until Reagan became the president.

Rational Thought on December 28, 2011 at 4:53 PM

Santorum is getting his surge at the perfect time.

Go Rick!

ThePrimordialOrderedPair on December 28, 2011 at 4:53 PM

CNN only polled … registered Republicans in Iowa. That means they’re badly underestimating support for Paul, who’s cleaning up among Democrats and independents who are planning to vote in the caucuses.

Oh My CNN ignoring Paul’s support at their own peril.

Dr Evil on December 28, 2011 at 4:53 PM

Step one: Camp out there and become the de facto hometown favorite/Not Romney
Step two: Win
Step three: ????
Step four: Nominee!

Ah yes…..that pesky old step three!

Tim_CA on December 28, 2011 at 4:53 PM

The Republican party should just get it over with and drink the Romney-laced Kool Aid and go to sleep forever or they can VOTE ROGUE and LIVE! Only Sarah Palin can stop Romney!

CoolChange80 on December 28, 2011 at 4:53 PM

Just spitballing here, but- what if Santorum cracks the top 3 in Iowa, and Palin decides to wade in with an endorsement of him?

Unlikely, but I think momentum and fundraising $ would jump on the Santorum express in that scenario.

(Well, it’s at least more likely than her jumping in herself in Jan./Feb…)

cs89 on December 28, 2011 at 4:54 PM

As far as Santorum goes, he doesn’t have enough time to get to where Paul and Romney are at the top. And I don’t think he has any campaign outside of the state.

conservativechristian on December 28, 2011 at 4:46 PM

Organization in presidential primaries is overrated. It matters in Iowa and few other early caucus states, but nowhere else.

After Iowa, it is all about the expectations game and the big “Mo”. Everyone assumes Romney will win big in NH, so that state is meaningless this cycle. The real test will be South Carolina.

If Santorum does well in Iowa, his poll numbers will rise in South Carolina. Gingrich currently leads that state by double digits, but if he craters in Iowa, his numbers there will fall through the floor.

Norwegian on December 28, 2011 at 4:54 PM

Why are we still talking about Perry? He is third tier.

If he had a brain, he’d be a powerhouse. Seems like a nice guy and more conservative than not.

therightwinger on December 28, 2011 at 4:55 PM

The Republican party should just get it over with and drink the Romney-laced Kool Aid and go to sleep forever or they can VOTE ROGUE and LIVE! Only Sarah Palin can stop Romney!

CoolChange80 on December 28, 2011 at 4:53 PM

Delusions.

andy85719 on December 28, 2011 at 4:55 PM

Santorum is getting his surge at the perfect time.

Go Rick!

ThePrimordialOrderedPair on December 28, 2011 at 4:53 PM

It’s media vapor Romney 25% :)

Dr Evil on December 28, 2011 at 4:55 PM

Santorum will do better than fellow Pennsylvanian Milton Shapp did in 1976.

Mr. D on December 28, 2011 at 4:56 PM

My God, its like they keep jumping to each unvetted candidate. Do they really think Santorum doesn’t have baggage? Anybody remember him telling WaPo all about how he introduced his age 1 1/2, 4, and 6 year old children to the corpse of their dead baby brother? And they sang songs to him and kissed him for hours? Seriously, what do the diehard social cons think the rest of the country is going to think of this story?:

Upon their son’s death, Rick and Karen Santorum opted not to bring his body to a funeral home. Instead, they bundled him in a blanket and drove him to Karen’s parents’ home in Pittsburgh. There, they spent several hours kissing and cuddling Gabriel with his three siblings, ages 6, 4 and 1 1/2. They took photos, sang lullabies in his ear and held a private Mass.

“That’s my little guy,” Santorum says, pointing to the photo of Gabriel, in which his tiny physique is framed by his father’s hand. The senator often speaks of his late son in the present tense. It is a rare instance in which he talks softly.

Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A61804-2005Apr17.html

And by the way, before anyone attacks me for being insensitive to a grieving father, consider that Santorum chose to tell that story to WaPo. It could have remained private; Santorum chose to make this public knowledge. In fact, some cynics would say that Santorum made that story public to position himself as a sympathetic figure and rally social conservatives to his campaign in the face of flagging re-election poll numbers in PA.

Lawdawg86 on December 28, 2011 at 4:56 PM

gophergirl on December 28, 2011 at 4:52 PM

Hear!..Hear!..I’m with you..:)

Dire Straits on December 28, 2011 at 4:56 PM

Oh come on you conservative lite folks, Rick won’t do anything to harm your gay friends.

Would you rather have Romney?…PAUL!?!

Norky on December 28, 2011 at 4:57 PM

cs89 on December 28, 2011 at 4:54 PM

Do you think she would endorse a “knuckle dragging neanderthal” like Santorum??!!??..:)

Dire Straits on December 28, 2011 at 4:59 PM

That’s not what I typed.

It’s media vapor* -look here not here – *Romney 25%

Dr Evil on December 28, 2011 at 4:59 PM

Delusions.

andy85719 on December 28, 2011 at 4:55 PM

I can’t help you out dude, see a doctor….

idesign on December 28, 2011 at 5:00 PM

I don’t want Rick Santy for his Moral Authority…but by gawd…I want him for more than what some of the others lack….GO! GO RICKY GO!
If I can’t have the quitter beyotch…at least Santy might make a showing and give me a little hope. Go…you bastich!

KOOLAID2 on December 28, 2011 at 5:00 PM

Um, no.

Good Lt on December 28, 2011 at 4:32 PM

Um, yes.

PatrickHenry599 on December 28, 2011 at 5:01 PM

Over Christmas, my parents said they actually kind of liked Santorum. This wasn’t surprising, because I would consider my parents somewhat more conservative than I am. I read them this excerpt:

AP: OK, without being too gory or graphic, so if somebody is homosexual, you would argue that they should not have sex?

SANTORUM: We have laws in states, like the one at the Supreme Court right now, that has sodomy laws and they were there for a purpose. Because, again, I would argue, they undermine the basic tenets of our society and the family. And if the Supreme Court says that you have the right to consensual sex within your home, then you have the right to bigamy, you have the right to polygamy, you have the right to incest, you have the right to adultery. You have the right to anything. Does that undermine the fabric of our society? I would argue yes, it does. It all comes from, I would argue, this right to privacy that doesn’t exist in my opinion in the United States Constitution, this right that was created, it was created in Griswold — Griswold was the contraceptive case — and abortion. And now we’re just extending it out. And the further you extend it out, the more you — this freedom actually intervenes and affects the family. You say, well, it’s my individual freedom. Yes, but it destroys the basic unit of our society because it condones behavior that’s antithetical to strong healthy families. Whether it’s polygamy, whether it’s adultery, where it’s sodomy, all of those things, are antithetical to a healthy, stable, traditional family.

My mother looked very concerned and said “that’s not a conservative talking”. She’s absolutely right. This man has no business holding one iota of government power.

MadisonConservative on December 28, 2011 at 5:02 PM

The Santorum is spreading rapidly in Iowa!

theodore on December 28, 2011 at 5:02 PM

Romney / Santorum 2012

Blather. Rinse. Repeat.

Capitalist Hog on December 28, 2011 at 5:03 PM

Lawdawg86 on December 28, 2011 at 4:42 PM

I don’t take Iowa so seriously. Remember who won in 08? And who didn’t? How’d that work out?

Eren on December 28, 2011 at 5:04 PM

It’s Paul’s to lose. He has passioned supporters and this poll only includes Republicans. A lot of Dems and some indies like Paul and WILL attend the caucuses.

Flapjackmaka on December 28, 2011 at 5:05 PM

No. First, he supported that POS Specter. Second, he’s a religious zealot.

Rational Thought on December 28, 2011 at 5:05 PM

CNN only polled … registered Republicans in Iowa. That means they’re badly underestimating support for Paul, who’s cleaning up among Democrats and independents who are planning to vote in the caucuses.

Oh My CNN ignoring Paul’s support at their own peril.
Dr Evil on December 28, 2011 at 4:53 PM

Not so much. While leftists, OWSers, misc. nuts and druggies can infiltrate a caucus system and reduce Iowa to a laughable cornfield clustermuck, the only story that counts is the nomination. Outside of Iowa, Paul is not a consideration. It’s like how his fans “freep” online polls and they really believe it actually accomplishes anything.

whatcat on December 28, 2011 at 5:06 PM

My mother looked very concerned and said “that’s not a conservative talking”. She’s absolutely right. This man has no business holding one iota of government power.

MadisonConservative on December 28, 2011 at 5:02 PM

Santorum surge is vapor part of the media’s script.

Why the Ron Paul black out? Really I am not a Ron Paul supporter, but I have little doubt that Ron Paul will make a good showing in Iowa.

Dr Evil on December 28, 2011 at 5:07 PM

I hope Santorum does become the nominee. It would be the END of social cons having any influence on the GOP as Obama absolutely slaughters him in the general election.

thphilli on December 28, 2011 at 5:07 PM

I don’t take Iowa so seriously. Remember who won in 08? And who didn’t? How’d that work out?

Eren on December 28, 2011 at 5:04 PM

Iowa mattered in 1996 & 2000, New Hampshire did not.

New Hamphsire mattered in 1992 and 2008, Iowa did not.

Each cycle is different. I would argue that in this cycle, New Hampshire is meaningless, while Iowa matters. Whic state do you think South Carolinans are more likely to pay attention to?

Norwegian on December 28, 2011 at 5:09 PM

Allahpundit on December 28, 2011 at 4:37 PM

He already had apologized for that… irony? :P

..and with all the RP posts, y’all coulda fooled me!! ;)

thirtyandseven on December 28, 2011 at 5:09 PM

utside of Iowa, Paul is not a consideration. It’s like how his fans “freep” online polls and they really believe it actually accomplishes anything.

whatcat on December 28, 2011 at 5:06 PM

We should want Paul to win Iowa AND Virginia. It requires them to abandon their systems for primaries cause of embarrassment.

Flapjackmaka on December 28, 2011 at 5:09 PM

Not so much. While leftists, OWSers, misc. nuts and druggies can infiltrate a caucus system and reduce Iowa to a laughable cornfield clustermuck, the only story that counts is the nomination. Outside of Iowa, Paul is not a consideration. It’s like how his fans “freep” online polls, and they really believe it actually accomplishes anything.

whatcat on December 28, 2011 at 5:06 PM

We will find out on January 3rd. Paul’s supporters are the committed kind, but it’s going to take getting them to the caucus and voting. In fact it’s going to come down to ground organization for all the candidates in Iowa.

Dr Evil on December 28, 2011 at 5:10 PM

Santorum is like a much smarter version of Rick Perry.
therightwinger on December 28, 2011 at 4:32 PM

…Without the hispandering and graft.

Fletch54 on December 28, 2011 at 5:10 PM

Fall in line radicals….A moderate is what you will have to swallow. There is too much money and power in play here for the establishment to let you dictate this game.

Romney = White Mormon version of Obama.

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on December 28, 2011 at 5:11 PM

Dire Straits on December 28, 2011 at 4:59 PM

I certainly think it’s possible, but maybe not likely-

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/post/palin-predicts-santorum-rise-in-iowa/2011/12/02/gIQA3wPpLO_blog.html

He’ll have to show he’s actually in the running before that would happen, IMO. Doesn’t look like she’s planning to endorse before the Iowa caucus, & (though I’d like her to!) I doubt if she’ll jump in herself.

I’m a fan of hers, so take this FWIW. I think she’ll do what she thinks is best for the US & the conservative cause. If that means endorsing a conservative candidate who can actually win the nomination, great. If that means sitting back through the primaries, and endorsing Romney if he sews up the nomination, she’ll do what it takes to try to get Obama out of office.

Just my $0.02- but I think that “knuckle-dragging” comment was just a brushback pitch, when Ricky got a little cocky and tried to use her to get some airtime while she was still considering running herself.

cs89 on December 28, 2011 at 5:12 PM

If Romney wins, after the convention, Romney will be flip flopping again, this time saying “What is the tea party? Never heard of it”

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on December 28, 2011 at 5:13 PM

What an incredible waste of time, effort, energy and money. The first Republican primary is held in a state where anyone can vote, excuse me – caucus, who has the energy or inclination to throw a monkey wrench in the R’s primary and the critical factors for them are ethanol subsidies and social issues.

Yet it can and does affect the entire primary process. Gimme a break….

jb34461 on December 28, 2011 at 5:14 PM

The Santorum is spreading rapidly in Iowa!

theodore on December 28, 2011 at 5:02 PM

Is he a disease?

;-)

Good Lt on December 28, 2011 at 5:14 PM

I have a picture on my desk of me, Santorum, Bob Dole, Arlen Specter and Joe Paterno. This was from 1994. Times have changed, eh?

I like Rick but he has no shot. He’s supposedly one of the top candidates of the religious right but he has no money and can’t break 20% five days before the caucus. It ain’t going to happen for him and I suspect he will come in 4th or 5th. Romney and Paul win and place locked up. I suspect Gingrich will show but it could be Perry since Newt is starting to bail on Iowa and turn his attention to SC.

Inignort on December 28, 2011 at 5:14 PM

We should want Paul to win Iowa AND Virginia. It requires them to abandon their systems for primaries cause of embarrassment.
Flapjackmaka on December 28, 2011 at 5:09 PM

You’re correct insofar as the ability of the left to infiltrate Republican politics with their “Operation Chaos via Paul” should not be enabled.

whatcat on December 28, 2011 at 5:14 PM

AP: OK, without being too gory or graphic, so if somebody is homosexual, you would argue that they should not have sex?

SANTORUM: We have laws in states, like the one at the Supreme Court right now, that has sodomy laws and they were there for a purpose. Because, again, I would argue, they undermine the basic tenets of our society and the family. And if the Supreme Court says that you have the right to consensual sex within your home, then you have the right to bigamy, you have the right to polygamy, you have the right to incest, you have the right to adultery. You have the right to anything. Does that undermine the fabric of our society? I would argue yes, it does. It all comes from, I would argue, this right to privacy that doesn’t exist in my opinion in the United States Constitution, this right that was created, it was created in Griswold — Griswold was the contraceptive case — and abortion. And now we’re just extending it out. And the further you extend it out, the more you — this freedom actually intervenes and affects the family. You say, well, it’s my individual freedom. Yes, but it destroys the basic unit of our society because it condones behavior that’s antithetical to strong healthy families. Whether it’s polygamy, whether it’s adultery, where it’s sodomy, all of those things, are antithetical to a healthy, stable, traditional family.

This quote from Santorum is going to stop him dead in the tracks.

haner on December 28, 2011 at 5:15 PM

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