Final Q3 GDP revised down to 1.8%

posted at 9:25 am on December 22, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

The Obama administration released some bad news about the economy in the third quarter while receiving mildly good news about joblessness this morning.  The final revision of the annualized GDP growth rate for the third quarter fell from the interim revision figure of 2.0% to 1.8%, highlighting the stagnation that has continued in 2011, and falling well below the initial estimate of 2.5%:

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 1.8 percent in the third quarter of 2011 (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 1.3 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.0 percent (see “Revisions” on page 3).

The change between revisions comes from a reduction in personal consumption expenditures, the report says.  That means that demand didn’t go up much at all in Q3, despite reports when the initial estimate was released that it represented a significant improvement in consumer activity.  The Q3 number still improves on Q1 and Q2, but those two quarters had significant impact from the tsunamis in Japan and gas-price shocks, the effects of which have completely dissipated by now.  The new number puts Q3 below the growth level of the final two quarters of 2010, which was only known for its Recovery Summer in the most ironic way possible.

Reuters, on the other hand, tries to find a silver lining:

U.S. economic growth was slower than previously estimated in the third quarter on a sharp drop in healthcare spending, but stronger business investment and a fall in inventories pointed to a pickup in output in the current period. …

Gross domestic product grew at a 1.8 percent annual rate in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said in its final estimate on Thursday, down from the previously estimated 2 percent.

Economists had expected growth to be unrevised at 2 percent. Though spending on healthcare dropped by $2.2 billion, spending on durable goods was stronger than previously estimated, indicating household appetite to consume remains healthy.

Actually, the report says that the difference was, as I noted earlier, from “a downward revision to personal consumption expenditures that was partly offset by an upward revision to private inventory investment.” That doesn’t sound like a great signal that the “household appetite to consume remains healthy.”  In fact, real personal consumption expenditures rose only 1.7% in the quarter, although durable goods did go up 5.7% as a subset of that figure.  Consumer spending growth of less than 2% is not “healthy” at all.

Now for the good news — weekly jobless claims remained at about the same lower level as last week:

In the week ending December 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 364,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 368,000. The 4-week moving average was 380,250, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 388,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.8 percent for the week ending December 10, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week’s unrevised rate.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending December 10, was 3,546,000, a decrease of 79,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,625,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,631,750, a decrease of 40,000 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,671,750.

We’ve only been out of the 400K range for a couple of weeks, and December’s jobless metrics are always tricky, but it does seem that we have moved to a lower level of job instability.  We are not at the level correlating with job growth, which is around 325K or lower, but we’re sneaking up on it.  Reuters hails it as the lowest level since April 2008, which is true, but which also makes a bit of a hash of this curious assertion:

The level of unemployment claims has fallen in recent weeks, and analysts say fewer layoffs means employers are probably more likely to hire.

Economists at Goldman Sachs said earlier in the week that weekly claims below 435,000 pointed to net monthly gains in jobs. Their research was based on figures available through October.

Net monthly gains against what?  If they mean net monthly gains against population growth, which is the measure they should be using, they’re very wrong.  Even the reference to April 2008 is a giveaway.  Were we adding jobs in April 2008, or were we losing jobs?  And were we adding jobs at the 435K level in relation to population growth, or were we bleeding them at a rate that would normally require a tourniquet?  It’s another variant of the 400K myth, and in this case it’s unnecessary, since the indicator really is going in the right direction, at least.


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Happy days are here again!

sandee on December 22, 2011 at 9:29 AM

Lsm proudly touting the jobless claims for dear leader…the gdp? nary a peep

anything to prop up dear leader

cmsinaz on December 22, 2011 at 9:31 AM

Unexpected…

Drained Brain on December 22, 2011 at 9:31 AM

Anything to help dear Leader.

I’d give anything to know what the real numbers are.

gophergirl on December 22, 2011 at 9:31 AM

This can’t be right. Obama told me yesterday the economy was improving, and I just know he would not lie to me.

thedevilinside on December 22, 2011 at 9:33 AM

I didn’t expect this.

Axe on December 22, 2011 at 9:33 AM

Unexpected…

Drained Brain on December 22, 2011 at 9:31 AM

lol … damn. I need to type faster.

Axe on December 22, 2011 at 9:34 AM

Cambodia’s GDP was 2.6%, that’s right we’re getting beat by Cambodia.

If America has any more “recovery” then we’re all going to be dead soon.

Bishop on December 22, 2011 at 9:35 AM

gophergirl on December 22, 2011 at 9:31 AM

Hey what happened, did your rep Ellison decide to cancel snow this year to make Minnesota more like Somalia or something? I’ve got half a dozen sleds and an entire herd of kids who are disappointed at the lack of powder.

Bishop on December 22, 2011 at 9:37 AM

The TEA Party is preventing the GDP from increasing!!!eleven1!

Actually, I’m waiting for the meme to turn to say that the TEA Party is actually the 1%.

LoganSix on December 22, 2011 at 9:38 AM

Still.a.lie.

Peppa Pig on December 22, 2011 at 9:40 AM

Anything to help dear Leader.

I’d give anything to know what the real numbers are.

gophergirl on December 22, 2011 at 9:31 AM

One “real” number (as “real” as these things get) is that the U-6 is 15.6% as of December 2.

Declining ever so very slowly, and way too high since, um, 2008. what happened that year again? An election or something…

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on December 22, 2011 at 9:41 AM

Hey what happened, did your rep Ellison decide to cancel snow this year to make Minnesota more like Somalia or something? I’ve got half a dozen sleds and an entire herd of kids who are disappointed at the lack of powder.

Bishop on December 22, 2011 at 9:37 AM

It’s all down in the Southwest.

Steve Eggleston on December 22, 2011 at 9:41 AM

Hey what happened, did your rep Ellison decide to cancel snow this year to make Minnesota more like Somalia or something? I’ve got half a dozen sleds and an entire herd of kids who are disappointed at the lack of powder.

Bishop on December 22, 2011 at 9:37 AM

LOL! Don’t give him any ideas that he has any more power than he thinks he has. The guy’s head is big enough.

Actually I’m fine with no snow – hate the stuff.

gophergirl on December 22, 2011 at 9:42 AM

I haven’t trusted any of this stuff since Clinton (both parties)…

golfmann on December 22, 2011 at 9:44 AM

‘It’s Not the People Who Vote that Count; It’s the People Who Count the Votes’ – obama errr stalin

acyl72 on December 22, 2011 at 9:45 AM

Color me unsurprised. Likewise next year when Q4 comes in below expectations. I’ve seen where Black Friday sales broke records, so did returns as people thot twice about what they bought in their shopping frenzy.

AH_C on December 22, 2011 at 9:45 AM

By the way, this election has to be about something bigger than the economy. If we make it about the economy, we likely lose. It has to be about, regardless of the current economy: “govt is too big, faith / freedom is under attack.”

anotherJoe on December 22, 2011 at 9:47 AM

Anything to help dear Leader.

I’d give anything to know what the real numbers are.

gophergirl on December 22, 2011 at 9:31 AM

Kim Jong Un and Barack Obama: Bobbsey Twins
http://thepeoplescube.com/peoples-blog/kim-jong-un-and-barack-obama-bobbsey-twins-t8165.html

Bobbsey Twins: One is a spoiled, unaccomplished, ignorant, narcissist leader of a communist regime. The other has just inherited North Korea.

Colbyjack on December 22, 2011 at 9:49 AM

Nancy Pelosi loves to spew, on and on, about the “failed policies” of Bush and the Republicans.

But go back and look at what happened to GDP and unemployment after the Bush Tax Cuts were passed in 2003.

For all the talk of what Obama “inherited”, look at what Bush “inherited”… the double whammy of the Dot Com bust and the 9/11/2001 attacks. Unemployment started to rise sharply in the wake of that one-two punch, but the Bush Tax Cuts stopped the rise in unemployment.

The Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 was signed into law by President George W. Bush on May 28, 2003. Unemployment peaked in June 2003 at 6.3% and then declined steadily to 4.4% in December 2006.

That’s right… five years ago this month, unemployment was 4.4%.

Then Pelosi and Reid took over Congress in January 2007, and it’s been downhill ever since.

Unemployment rate in December 2006, just before Nancy Pelosi took power as Speaker of the House: 4.4%

Unemployment rate in December 2010, after four years of Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House: 9.4%

– Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

So tell me, who has the “failed policies”?

ITguy on December 22, 2011 at 9:52 AM

Actually I’m fine with no snow – hate the stuff.
gophergirl on December 22, 2011 at 9:42 AM

Get out.

Ya you heard me….get the hell out of my state.

Bishop on December 22, 2011 at 9:52 AM

Hopelessness and Change! Yeah!

monalisa on December 22, 2011 at 9:54 AM

Get out.

Ya you heard me….get the hell out of my state.

Bishop on December 22, 2011 at 9:52 AM

Well I hate the stuff on roads and sidewalks. If it never landed anywhere I walked on or drove on – I wouldn’t care if snowed 100 feet every winter.

Better?

gophergirl on December 22, 2011 at 9:56 AM

gophergirl on December 22, 2011 at 9:56 AM

Out where I live the ordinances allow for snowmobile riding on roads and certain sidewalks. I’ve sent the kids for groceries on one of the big sleds, they park it like a car right there in the lot.

You obviously don’t understand. So get out. NOW.

Bishop on December 22, 2011 at 10:00 AM

Don’t worry guys, Mitt will get us back on track.

Notorious GOP on December 22, 2011 at 10:03 AM

1.8% less than expected, but still an improvement on 1Q and 2Q. First time claims now solidly below 400K, consumer sentiment up again and hearing whisper numbers for 4Q11 GDP as high a 3.5% – 4% as consumers ramp up buying. Look for strong 4Q numbers early next year …

TouchdownBuddha on December 22, 2011 at 10:03 AM

Reading economic data in December is useless. You have the temp Christmas Non-Denominational Winter Holiday hiring. On top of that no company wants to release press statements like “IBM HAS ANNOUNCED 15K LAYOFFS” a week before Christmas Non-Religious Winter Festival Time. Plus add the fact that nobody really does any real work from around Dec 15th to Jan 2nd and the whole month can be a writeoff in terms of gaining any insight into what the economy is truly doing.

angryed on December 22, 2011 at 10:06 AM

State Figures

Thirty-nine states and territories reported an increase in claims, while 14 reported a decrease. These data are reported with a one-week lag.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-22/jobless-claims-in-u-s-surprisingly-drop-to-lowest-level-since-april-200.html

Funny how many news media outlets omitted this part of the report, or moved it to the bottom of the story.

Rovin on December 22, 2011 at 10:09 AM

No hope and a lot of change… How could this country ever elect such a clown as Barack Hussein Obama? His election and possible reelection shows how far we have slid as a country. I HOPE my kids will be able to survive his damage.

steved95 on December 22, 2011 at 10:10 AM

FWIW, I saw an improvement in the third quarter in my business but the fourth turned into yet another disappointment. Next year is shaping up as another struggle of a year, the fourth in a row. We’ve not laid people off, hoping revenues would rebound, but that is going to change. Big companies are doing better than small ones, especially if they have government revenue streams. Anecdotally, I think small companies are under a ton of tax, regulatory and revenue pressure. We certainly are.

MTF on December 22, 2011 at 10:14 AM

All the fake housing numbers have been revised downwards so that next year’s bad numbers will look comparitively good can be spun as a housing recovery during Obama’s reelection campaign.

Wigglesworth on December 22, 2011 at 10:14 AM

1.8% growth…100% debt to GDP also announced today…they’re just numbers people. Now go back to staring at the shiny (but incandescent) our dear leaders have allowed us to keep.

MNHawk on December 22, 2011 at 10:14 AM

Amazing how these GDP numbers always go in one direction …

besser tot als rot on December 22, 2011 at 10:16 AM

Don’t worry guys, Mitt will get us back on track.

Notorious GOP on December 22, 2011 at 10:03 AM

You forgot your “/” tag.

besser tot als rot on December 22, 2011 at 10:17 AM

gophergirl on December 22, 2011 at 9:56 AM

You obviously don’t understand. So get out. NOW.

Bishop on December 22, 2011 at 10:00 AM

Give her a break. Everybody knows Minnesota is the state to live in, if you don’t like snow! : )

listens2glenn on December 22, 2011 at 10:20 AM

President obama was.elected to manage the decline of the US.

Mission complete.

tom daschle concerned on December 22, 2011 at 10:21 AM

This is the slowest recovery in American history and that is almost exclusively due to our failure of a president and the Democrats in Congress.

Throw them all out in 2012 or the misery will continue.

NoDonkey on December 22, 2011 at 10:24 AM

The Obama administration aren’t just fudging numbers; they aren’t even just cooking the books; they aren’t even “just” committing out-and-out fraud; they are fascistically manipulating the entire American economy to cover up what’s really going on on a quarter-by-quarter basis.

They can say anything they want about gross GDP over a short interval — by the time you compile the numbers and publically ask the questions, they have already changed all their answers and the data they based them on. And no one will be paying attention anyway because the pre-revision numbers for the new quarter will – yet again – show that “Recovery is just around the corner!”

But the undeniable truth is that the per capita GDP, after real inflation rates are figured in, is not rising a bit more slowly than usual. It has gone DOWN, rather steeply, over the past two years. And that hasn’t happened since the First Great Depression.

logis on December 22, 2011 at 10:29 AM

I always find Ed’s choice of “good news” and “bad news” on economic topics curious.

I greatly appreciate that Hot Air is a place of ideas, and not a simple partisan rag like, say, TPM.

Nevertheless, nearly everyone comes here because, for whatever variety of reasons, they think conservatives do less overall harm than liberals and want a Republican President and Congress in 2012.

So how are we supposed to react to the news that new unemployment applications dropped? Am I mean, heartless, vicious because I’m not exactly overjoyed that Obama is likely to have slightly better economic data as he campaigns?

My own hobby horses are affirmative action and PEUs. The GOP hasn’t done much for me on these issues, but at least they tend not to make things much worse. OTOH, the Dems continue to push these interests in ways that, in my view, are far more harmful to the country than whether unemployment goes up a notch or two.

I know Ed is trying to be generous and not show the meanness so prevalent on the other side. But isn’t it a charade?

bobs1196 on December 22, 2011 at 10:35 AM

President obama was.elected to manage the decline of the US.

Mission complete.

tom daschle concerned on December 22, 2011 at 10:21 AM

That should be Romney’s campaign slogan – Elect Romney: He can manage the decline of the US better than Obama.

besser tot als rot on December 22, 2011 at 10:38 AM

Here are some of today’s headlines from our friends the MSM:

American consumers cheeriest in 6 months

Jobless claims at 3.5 year low

Obama says worst of recession and crises is over

This is how the media portrays our economy.

sandee on December 22, 2011 at 10:41 AM

FWIW, I saw an improvement in the third quarter in my business but the fourth turned into yet another disappointment. Next year is shaping up as another struggle of a year, the fourth in a row. We’ve not laid people off, hoping revenues would rebound, but that is going to change. Big companies are doing better than small ones, especially if they have government revenue streams. Anecdotally, I think small companies are under a ton of tax, regulatory and revenue pressure. We certainly are.

MTF on December 22, 2011 at 10:14 AM

I’m in the same boat. From the sales side of things, my company has had a pretty good year, especially the third quarter, but this month is an absolute disaster.

The really sad thing is that despite record sales, we’re still treading water. It’s been a nightmare trying to keep things going since the last quarter of 2008. We’ve increased sales and become more efficient, but at the end of the year I end up breaking even (except 2009 which was a loss). Believe it or not, my main problem is inflation, especially in raw materials. I’ve raised prices, but have not been able to keep up with increased expenses. You can only raise prices so much when GDP is 1.8%.

I’m actually kind of depressed about this right now. It feels like I’m trying to put out a forest fire with a garden hose. No matter what I do, I just can’t get under control and I’m really getting tired of making the same thing or less than I did 5 years ago. Money sure as heck doesn’t go as far as it used to.

ReaganWasRight on December 22, 2011 at 10:50 AM


But the good news also comes with a significant caveat. Many forecasters say the recent uptick probably does not represent the long-awaited start to a strong, sustainable recovery. Much of the current strength is caused by temporary factors. And economists expect growth to slow in the first half of 2012 to an annual pace of about 1.5 to 2 percent.

Typical Faux News Obama hate right? Nope. This is from the NY Times yesterday.

angryed on December 22, 2011 at 10:52 AM

Give her a break. Everybody knows Minnesota is the state to live in, if you don’t like snow! : )

listens2glenn on December 22, 2011 at 10:20 AM

I ask my parents often why they couldn’t have been born and raised in Hawaii.

I’m going to go cry now – Bishop hurt my feelings WAHHHHHH!

gophergirl on December 22, 2011 at 10:56 AM

150% of that 1.8% is in the form of increased prices. Not increased production.

Constitutional historian of conservative values on December 22, 2011 at 10:59 AM

(2.5-1.8)/1.8 = .39 or 39%. the initial claim was off by FORTY PERCENT!!!

The all knowing smartest regime in the history of the universe under the helm of the smartest man in the history of the universe was only off by 40%.

Can we get the stupid people back? They hit the mark within 10% most of the time.

Guess that screwing up so badly is, you guessed it, just another sign of the great mental genius that 0bama and his team possesses.

jukin3 on December 22, 2011 at 11:04 AM

Between O-blows corrupt administration doctoring up the numbers and the MSM being more than willing to carry the torch, it is unlikely that “we the people” will ever know what the real numbers actually are. Fixing the numbers to make it seem like the ailing economy has finally turned around is the only way that he stands a chance at getting re-elected, and team Obama knows this all to well.

RiCkY.D. on December 22, 2011 at 11:08 AM

Here are some of today’s headlines from our friends the MSM:

American consumers cheeriest in 6 months

Jobless claims at 3.5 year low

Obama says worst of recession and crises is over

This is how the media portrays our economy.

sandee on December 22, 2011 at 10:41 AM

How sad…..

golfmann on December 22, 2011 at 11:09 AM

A thirty three percent overstatement of the GDP by Obama to hype good news and I net the lamestream media will yawn at this deception.

eaglewingz08 on December 22, 2011 at 11:13 AM

Wait until about 3 weeks from now when the layoffs from the Christmas/Holiday hirings have set in and see what the weekly jobless claims rise to.

stukinIL4now on December 22, 2011 at 11:26 AM

Uncanny! Never revised UP!~

Jpalm on December 22, 2011 at 11:32 AM

I knew it would get revised down.

Yakko77 on December 22, 2011 at 11:36 AM

Well, after all this good news on the economy for the third straight year, I just hope that Barry has a good time and gets lots of rest on this, his latest Hawaiian vacation.

PorchDawg on December 22, 2011 at 11:44 AM

Obama says worst of recession and crises is over

That is very, very bad news. 0bama has the “Minus Touch” and is just about 100% wrong on any call that he makes.

Jukin’s prediction with only that single input is we are heading for serious economic problems.

Who do you think will be proven correct?

jukin3 on December 22, 2011 at 11:48 AM

Wow! What a lot of bullshit.

I repost below a previous related Status Message and comment with a sourced quote I made on Facebook

*

March 8 2011

I repost below as a comment a related previous Status Post

*****

SHALOM SHALOM SHABBAT SHALOM

This affirms the central purpose of my NEW ECONOMIC PARADIGM:

“. . . to solve The American Problem you have to have GROWTH – Real Growth – Real Growth is going to Increase People’s Incomes so Taxable Revenue will Increase and that is going to cover Government spending.”

- Peking University Professor Yang Yao
on China Central TV Dialogue hosted by Tian Wei

You are warmly welcome to learn about my non-political, non-religious New Economic Paradigm, which Economically Affirms Women and All Nations that Apply, Register, and Activate it, by accessing my Notes in a side panel on my Facebook Profile Page John W Stevenson

Sincerely

John W. Stevenson
Sovereign
The John W. Stevenson
New Economic Paradigm

Facebook Profile Page John W Stevenson
(haha! be sure you get the right one, I have recently announced a Movie Project Design there)

http://www.johnwstevenson.com

http://johnwstevensonforpresident.com

John W Stevenson on December 22, 2011 at 11:49 AM

When the unemployment rate was 4.6% under GWB the dems and the media called it hamburger flipping jobs. Now at8.6% we are on our way. no thanks!

chuckachucka on December 22, 2011 at 12:03 PM

SEE, OBAMA’S POLICIES ARE WORKING!!!!!

(until the figures are “revised”.)

Marxism is for dummies on December 22, 2011 at 12:16 PM

So tell me, who has the “failed policies”?

ITguy on December 22, 2011 at 9:52 AM

See that the problem with you Conservatives. Always using real world logic and your ‘memory’. /s

My friend came up with that, Dems hate us because we have a brain and a memory.!

Of course Dems hate that, but these guys have the MSM, er Propaganda Systems, on their side now, so that data and logic will never get out.

“lalalala…, I don’t care Obama is Awesome.”

Actually in the real world I never hear anyone speak of the Obamas, and if I do, its not favorable. I think I just don’t hang around a lot of Dems.

orbitalair on December 22, 2011 at 12:28 PM

I’m actually kind of depressed about this right now. It feels like I’m trying to put out a forest fire with a garden hose. No matter what I do, I just can’t get under control and I’m really getting tired of making the same thing or less than I did 5 years ago. Money sure as heck doesn’t go as far as it used to.

ReaganWasRight on December 22, 2011 at 10:50 AM

I’m right there with you. We’ve cut every extraneous expense as much as possible and it gets tiresome. Our customers are tighter with a buck than yours it sounds like, but the results are the same. We made a deliberate decision to lose money over 2011, investing in a new product just now coming on line, so our bottom line sucks but our business is in solid shape…we just need to see some optimism in the economy. If the goddam President would just shut up and play golf I’d be happy. Every time he opens his mouth something bad happens.

MTF on December 22, 2011 at 12:34 PM

I don’t care. Obama is awesome…and…uh…er…it’s all Bush’s fault!
/

Decoski on December 22, 2011 at 1:15 PM

When the unemployment rate was 4.6% under GWB the dems and the media called it hamburger flipping jobs. Now at8.6% we are on our way. no thanks!

chuckachucka on December 22, 2011 at 12:03 PM

Except it’s even worse than that. The “real” unemployment number U-6 is 15.6%, and the U-3 8.6% means nothing due to the number of folks that have stopped looking and are not seeking work anymore.

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on December 22, 2011 at 1:15 PM

I’m actually kind of depressed about this right now. It feels like I’m trying to put out a forest fire with a garden hose. No matter what I do, I just can’t get under control and I’m really getting tired of making the same thing or less than I did 5 years ago. Money sure as heck doesn’t go as far as it used to.

ReaganWasRight on December 22, 2011 at 10:50 AM

I’m right there with you. We’ve cut every extraneous expense as much as possible and it gets tiresome. Our customers are tighter with a buck than yours, it sounds like, but the results are the same. We made a deliberate decision to lose money over 2011, investing in a new product just now coming on line, so our bottom line sucks but our business is in solid shape…we just need to see some optimism in the economy. If the goddam President would just shut up and play golf I’d be happy. Every time he opens his mouth something bad happens.

MTF on December 22, 2011 at 2:07 PM

So…the economy is back? Again? That is until next week when they revise the numbers. Same song and dance…over and over and over.

JennM111 on December 22, 2011 at 2:35 PM

So how are we supposed to react to the news that new unemployment applications dropped? Am I mean, heartless, vicious because I’m not exactly overjoyed that Obama is likely to have slightly better economic data as he campaigns?

bobs1196 on December 22, 2011 at 10:35 AM

I think what you are coming across is cynicism from those of us who have been closely following the jobs environment. Here are our issues…

1) Monthly fake revisions that paint a somewhat positive outlook. Then every month, they are revised downwards. It is very clear that the administration is desperately trying to paint some good news, and the MSM is carrying water for them. The boy who cried wolf only did it a handful of times. We’ve been seeing this every month for at least two years. Nobody believes anything that comes out from this administration on jobs and the economy.

2) Every report ignores the real jobless number… which is tied to the ratio of people actually working in our society. We have seen MILLIONS drop completely out of the economy and give up on looking for jobs. If you look at raw numbers in the reports, and consider the timeframe for jobless benefits, it is very clear that the reason unemployment is going down is because more and more people have given up looking for work, so they are not included in the stats.

So how do I react to a slight decrease in unemployment?

Do I gloat, or wish unemployment to increase? No… but I also don’t trust anything this administration tries to sell, especially when they’re trying to tell me the opposite of what the raw numbers are telling me.

dominigan on December 22, 2011 at 2:44 PM

As Nov. 2012 draws near, watch the number of people who have “given up” looking for work increase precipitously. They will dump as many into that category as necessary to lower the unemployment rate. They realize that most Americans don’t dig deeper than the main number that is advertised so prominently. Someone needs to ask, “What are all these people who have given up looking for work doing for food, shelter, clothing?” Why is the administration being rewarded for an unemployment rate that exceeds 11%?

MDLibertyLover on December 22, 2011 at 2:51 PM

Shocked and surprised yet again!
No failure in this regard…EVAH!

KOOLAID2 on December 22, 2011 at 3:09 PM

Positive job numbers. Hold the presses. Or how about we wait until after the Christmas season to see how many of those seasonal jobs become part of the revised unemployment numbers again next year.

chickasaw42 on December 22, 2011 at 4:57 PM

What’s odd is that when these faux positive numbers come out, the NYSE loves it and it shoots up into the green. Then when they’re “unexpectedly” revised downward, the Dow doesn’t go down the same percent as it went up on the difference of the original false estimate.

Hmmm.

So, how long is this paper lion supposed to hold together?

Dr. ZhivBlago on December 22, 2011 at 10:21 PM