Poll: Obama leads both Romney and Gingrich in Virginia

posted at 3:00 pm on December 14, 2011 by Tina Korbe

Virginia looks to be Barack Obama’s “firewall state” in 2012, according to Public Policy Polling — but take that with a grain of salt. As Guy Benson tweeted, “PPP says Obama is leading comfortably in Virginia, which flies [in] the face of … every single thing that has happened in Virginia since 2008.”

Nevertheless, the polls show what the polls show. An excerpt from the executive summary:

Right now we find Obama on positive ground in the state with 48% of voters approving of him to 47% who disapprove. He won Virginia by 6 points against John McCain so his net approval of +1 basically suggests a 5 point decline for him from his 2008 standing.  To put that in context he won the national popular vote by 7 points and our national poll this week put his approval at a -10 spread (42/52), for a 17 point decline nationally.  His numbers are holding up much better in Virginia than most anywhere else.

What sets Obama’s numbers apart in Virginia is that it’s a rare place where Democrats (89%) are more unified in their approval of him than Republicans (87%) are in their disapproval. A lot of Obama’s trouble nationally is being caused by Democrats abandoning ship but in Virginia he has a very strong base behind him.

Obama leads both Mitt Romney (48-42) and Newt Gingrich (50-43) by margins comparable to his 6 point victory over John McCain in 2008. He leads both of them with independents- Romney by 4 and Gingrich by 8. And between the two match ups he’s picking up as many Republicans as he’s losing Democrats, again something we just aren’t seeing in very many places.

Furthermore, PPP says, Obama continues to enjoy particular popularity among a couple key demographics that helped to ensure his election in the first place. With African American voters, he’s ahead of Romney 87-10 and ahead of Gingrich 89-10. Among young voters, he’s up 55-33 on Romney and 57-35 on Gingrich.

Frankly, grain of salt aside, these numbers do make me nervous. Yes, under the leadership of Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell, Virginia has adopted a number of significant conservative policies, particularly in the education realm. And, yes, in the 2010 midterm elections, Republicans picked up a couple seats.

But Virginia will be a battleground state in 2012. Not only did Obama win it in 2008, but the results of the 2010 midterm elections there sent mixed messages, as well. To me, the takeaway from PPP’s numbers is that neither Obama nor the GOP should take Virginia for granted. For all that Obama has failed to lead as president, he hasn’t failed to prioritize his reelection campaign. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: The GOP candidates need to have a strategy in place to peel away — not just Democrats in a general sense — but pragmatic millennial voters from the Obama coalition. For that, it’d help if the GOP could nominate a particularly charismatic candidate — but, even in the absence of a compelling personality, the GOP can hammer home the link between fiscal responsibility and jobs in a way that should appeal to young voters.


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PPP is a DailyKos and SEIU joint effort. The poll might be good but they have been know to push poll before.

William Amos on December 14, 2011 at 3:03 PM

Polls against Obama mean nothing at this time, until the R frontrunner is elected/selected.

Schadenfreude on December 14, 2011 at 3:03 PM

PPP? Meh.

29Victor on December 14, 2011 at 3:03 PM

DC Gov workers

rhombus on December 14, 2011 at 3:04 PM

Considering half the state is populated by people who work in DC…..

CurtZHP on December 14, 2011 at 3:04 PM

Obama will never take Virginia in 2012. Absolutely will not happen.

BacaDog on December 14, 2011 at 3:04 PM

And it’s rhombus by a nose!

CurtZHP on December 14, 2011 at 3:04 PM

I like Virginia ham.

Bishop on December 14, 2011 at 3:05 PM

I’m from Virginia, and I’m telling you there is no way Obama wins it in 2012. Granted, my opinion is based on instinct…but I trust my instinct, especially when it comes to my home state.

PPP is only trying to prop up Dear Leader. Don’t worry too much. If other (more reputable) pollers show the same results in October of 2012, then I would worry.

DRayRaven on December 14, 2011 at 3:05 PM

Obama will not be re-elected in this economy. No matter how many unemployment or GDP stats are cooked. He’s cooked.

Oil Can on December 14, 2011 at 3:06 PM

I’m not voting for Newt Romney either but if they are the nominee I feel certain there will be a better 3rd party option.

FloatingRock on December 14, 2011 at 3:06 PM

Obama’s ahead of Romney and Newt with African American voters? I’m shocked!
When they tell me bHOs ahead of Larry the Cable Guy’s fans, then I’ll worry.

lonestar1 on December 14, 2011 at 3:07 PM

Virginia will be close, as in Florida circa 2000.

Robert_Paulson on December 14, 2011 at 3:07 PM

I like Virginia ham.

Bishop on December 14, 2011 at 3:05 PM

That’s kind of a salty comment.

Chip on December 14, 2011 at 3:07 PM

what was the polling sample?

red131 on December 14, 2011 at 3:08 PM

B! S!

KOOLAID2 on December 14, 2011 at 3:09 PM

obama loses Virginia and PA

M_J_S on December 14, 2011 at 3:11 PM

I bet the generic Republican still beats Obama in Virginia!

huckleberryfriend on December 14, 2011 at 3:12 PM

DC Gov workers

rhombus on December 14, 2011 at 3:04 PM

Considering half the state is populated by people who work in DC…..

CurtZHP on December 14, 2011 at 3:04 PM

Was going to say the same thing.

Vote buying with taxpayer dollars – it’s the DNC way of life.

Chip on December 14, 2011 at 3:12 PM

I’m not voting for Newt Romney either but if they are the nominee I feel certain there will be a better 3rd party option.

FloatingRock on December 14, 2011 at 3:06 PM

Idiots like you are Obama’s true “firewall”

BuzzCrutcher on December 14, 2011 at 3:12 PM

That’s kind of a salty comment.
Chip on December 14, 2011 at 3:07 PM

Don’t be a pig.

Bishop on December 14, 2011 at 3:12 PM

We’re a year out. I wouldn’t read too much into these polls

bs4948800 on December 14, 2011 at 3:12 PM

And then there’s the polling sample:

Democrat 36%
Republican 33%
Independent/Other 31%

Bob McDonnell won over Creigh Deeds by 17 points.

That this poll is oversampling Democrats may help put your mind at ease, Tina. Virginia is not by any means a safe state for Republicans, but neither is it a shoo-in for Obama.

JohnTant on December 14, 2011 at 3:13 PM

He’s ahead there, because he hasn’t campaigned there yet.

SlaveDog on December 14, 2011 at 3:13 PM

Virginia and North Carolina WILL go Republican in 2012. This is PPP producing talking point polling info to soothe the battered liberal psyche. PPP does it a little better than Marist by focusing on a state where Obama at least has a realistic hope of winning, instead of a guaranteed red state like South Carolina.

TheLastBrainLeft on December 14, 2011 at 3:13 PM

With African American voters, he’s ahead of Romney 87-10 and ahead of Gingrich 89-10.

Hence Herman Cain’s comment on the democrat indoctrination of the black community.

csdeven on December 14, 2011 at 3:14 PM

D/R/I = 36/33/31
think that explains more than anyhting.

t8stlikchkn on December 14, 2011 at 3:14 PM

There are a few polling firms I consider to be reputable. PPP is not one of those. A PPP poll is alot like getting my news from just CBS,NBC ABC NY Times etc. I know whan I get information from these businesses they have an agenda.

DVPTexFla on December 14, 2011 at 3:14 PM

I am sorry, we can we just forever stop taking PPP Polling seriously? They are little more than a propaganda arm for the DNC. Their numbers and samples ALWAYS lean left.

mitchellvii on December 14, 2011 at 3:15 PM

As others have said, PPP is a joke. In September 2012, if a real poll shows the same thing, then we can start worrying.

eyedoc on December 14, 2011 at 3:15 PM

And the partisan breakdown of the PPP sample was?

The same electorate that voted for Bob McDonnell in 2009 by 59-41?

Did PPP call anyone living more than 50 miles from DC?

Didn’t think so…

Steve Z on December 14, 2011 at 3:15 PM

If Virginia votes for Bammy, Ill swear off my native Commonwealths citizens as damned yankees for evermore.

Cafedumerde on December 14, 2011 at 3:15 PM

It’s too early to worry about this. We don’t even have a candidate yet. I’m curious to see how Perry or Paul polls against Obama as well.

ModerateMan on December 14, 2011 at 3:16 PM

..you mean Obama polls better after months of Republicans bashing each other for the nomination while Obama gets a free ride….. I’m shocked.

You can bet that when the nominee is pretty much decided and all focus will be on Obama’s failed policies that these numbers will change dramatically.

Gingrich pretty much sent this message yesterday when he was talking about stopping the red on red fighting and concentrating on exposing Obama’s failures while providing solutions to them.

Republicans have done well recently on local elections and Obama is still underwater in many areas…including the economy.

There has been no focus on Obama from Republicans for months.If anything…his numbers should be much better with an adoring MSM to go along with this free ride.This is all about to change and these poll numbers will change right along with them.

Baxter Greene on December 14, 2011 at 3:16 PM

Good grief. George Washington, Thomas Jefferson and all the other Virginia Patriots are spinning in their graves.

Dexter_Alarius on December 14, 2011 at 3:16 PM

I live in Virginia…both Richmond and Northern Virginia. I seriously doubt this poll. If anything, it is because the Romney/Gingrich numbers are split between them. As soon as there is one, it will turn into 1/3 Obama to 2/3 whoever the opponent is. People felt good voting for Obama in 2008 and they didn’t want another Republican. If the people of Virginia are stupid enough to vote for Obama over ANYTHING this time around, we’ve got bigger problems. It’s over. I refuse to believe that anyone, whether Virginia or anywhere else is that stupid.

PorchDawg on December 14, 2011 at 3:16 PM

Newt is on Hannity calling himself a “genuine, hard line conservative” – ROFL

Swerve22 on December 14, 2011 at 3:17 PM

Virginia will be close, as in Florida circa 2000.

Robert_Paulson on December 14, 2011 at 3:07 PM

I don’t think so. I don’t think it’ll even be a contest.

Oldnuke on December 14, 2011 at 3:17 PM

But….but….they’re electable!

Vaztor on December 14, 2011 at 3:18 PM

Except for the black vote (which I’m sure is not racist /s) all the numbers appear to be within the margin of error.

Kaffa on December 14, 2011 at 3:18 PM

I say this with great affection for my native Old Dominion, but @&$#! It’s one heck of a mixed-up state. The northern part – with the DC suburbs – is a completely different political beast than the rest of it.

I too am worried the NoVa blues will once again carry the day, as they did in 2008.

mrsknightley on December 14, 2011 at 3:18 PM

Oh… but Gingrich will whip Obama in the debates and all will be well…/sarc

Rhetoric won’t beat Obama in 2012. A tangible record will.

Vote for the ONLY candidate with the record that can beat Obama: Gov. Rick Perry.

Go Perry 2012.

TheRightMan on December 14, 2011 at 3:18 PM

I live in VA and I think you’d be pretty hard pressed to find anything but tepid, small pockets of support for our leftist president.

darwin on December 14, 2011 at 3:19 PM

I was shocked and horrified to see obama carry Va last time. I don’t think this poll means much though, most polls I have seen show obama 10 points down in VA.

Redstone357 on December 14, 2011 at 3:19 PM

With African American voters, he’s ahead of Romney 87-10 and ahead of Gingrich 89-10.

Wait a minute… as lopsided as those numbers are, aren’t they actually bad numbers for Obama? The 2008 exit polls showed Obama over McCain 95-4 among African Americans. Even Kerry won 88% of the Black vote in 2004. If Obama isn’t even polling as well as a haughty, French-looking ketchup gigolo, that has to be a bad sign, no?

Fabozz on December 14, 2011 at 3:19 PM

I too am worried the NoVa blues will once again carry the day, as they did in 2008.

mrsknightley on December 14, 2011 at 3:18 PM

McDonnell and 2010 prove otherwise.

darwin on December 14, 2011 at 3:20 PM

For that, it’d help if the GOP could nominate a particularly charismatic candidate — but, even in the absence of a compelling personality

And that my friends, would have been Palin or Cain.

racquetballer on December 14, 2011 at 3:20 PM

Bob McDonnell won over Creigh Deeds by 17 points.

JohnTant on December 14, 2011 at 3:13 PM

Gotta be fair about that statistic though. Nobody had ever heard of Creigh Deeds. If they had McDonnell would have won by 50 points.

Oldnuke on December 14, 2011 at 3:20 PM

Wow! Thank you for allowing me to post a comment! I feel so privileged; like I’m in an exclusive club or something!

Public Policy Polling (PPP) is an American Democratic Party-affiliated polling firm based in Raleigh, North Carolina. PPP was founded in 2001 by businessman and Democratic pollster Dean Debnam, the firm’s current president and chief executive officer.

I only pay attention when all the polls are somewhat close. This seems like democratic propaganda to me. It may be wise to view things with consideration of the source. (Respectfully)

KellyW. on December 14, 2011 at 3:21 PM

LOL, PPP. The same PPP that was hired by SEIU to run 100+ polls on its behalf.

Oh yea, very reliable indeed.

angryed on December 14, 2011 at 3:21 PM

This sampling isn’t quite as wildly biased as some but why does every poll have a majority of Dems over Pubs?

CorporatePiggy on December 14, 2011 at 3:21 PM

PPP should be DDD.

msupertas on December 14, 2011 at 3:21 PM

If Virginia goes for him they should seceed from the union

murrayjones on December 14, 2011 at 3:21 PM

Right now we find Obama on positive ground in the state with 48% of voters approving of him to 47% who disapprove.

Yeah, they lost me with the very first line. There’s no way in hell that a state the Dem Gubernatorial candidate lost in November 2009 by 18 points(largely due to the unpopularity of Obama) is gonna be split 50/50 on Barry’s job performance 2 years later when things by every measure are worse. Plus there was no Obamacare law back then either which has only made him less popular.

Doughboy on December 14, 2011 at 3:21 PM

How many times does PPP have to be described as a Democrat pollster AND be completely off on election results to be completely discredited? Ignore.

Red Cloud on December 14, 2011 at 3:21 PM

I am sorry, we can we just forever stop taking PPP Polling seriously? They are little more than a propaganda arm for the DNC. Their numbers and samples ALWAYS lean left.

mitchellvii on December 14, 2011 at 3:15 PM

Ace of Spades had a long post about PPP during Virgina’s local elections months ago.He showed how PPP leans considerably left in their sampling to keep democrats energized….then they tighten it up towards the end so that they can brag about how close they were later on.

Many polls had 6-10 point swings within days just before elections.

I pretty much watch Rassmussen and Gallup.They seem to have much more credibility and consistent polling history.

Baxter Greene on December 14, 2011 at 3:22 PM

Frankly, grain of salt aside, these numbers do make me nervous. Yes, under the leadership of Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell, Virginia has adopted a number of significant conservative policies, particularly in the education realm. And, yes, in the 2010 midterm elections, Republicans picked up a couple seats.

Tina, sweetie, honey, babe..here’s where you’re supposed to break into a torrid analysis of the internals of the poll. You know, like Dem oversampling, etc. we know these numbers make you nervous. they make all of us nervous. But if they’re not a predictor of results then they’re an attempt at manipulation and — if so — we would need to know why.

It’s why a lot of us read HA; for this kind of analysis.

The War Planner on December 14, 2011 at 3:22 PM

I live in VA and I think you’d be pretty hard pressed to find anything but tepid, small pockets of support for our leftist president.

darwin on December 14, 2011 at 3:19 PM

I wish that were true in my neck of the VA woods.

mrsknightley on December 14, 2011 at 3:23 PM

“PPP says Obama is leading comfortably in Virginia, which flies [in] the face of … every single thing that has happened in Virginia since 2008.”

Except the massive migration of government workers.

What sets Obama’s numbers apart in Virginia is that it’s a rare place where Democrats (89%) are more unified in their approval of him than Republicans (87%) are in their disapproval. -PPP

Yep.

I don’t think it’s likely that Obama wins reelection in 2012. I do think it’s possible, however, that Virginia loses its spot on the right side of the slide-rule due to the sheer number of government workers. Times are better than they’ve ever been for those people and they owe it all to him. Even general national malaise won’t inspire people to vote against their own jobs.

Unfortunately for Obama, that dynamic works against him in basically the entire rest of the country. If MI or WI go red, that makes Virginia a wash. If PA goes red, the race is over. And those are states whose citizens aren’t being propped up by 1.5T annual deficits, i.e. they’re America.

HitNRun on December 14, 2011 at 3:23 PM

N8sebaka’s 2012 eection prediction: Obama will propose to lift the salary freeze on federal salaries before the election. If he doesn’t propose it, then he will push a button in the house and/or senate. Either way, he will pay for reliable votes in Virginia.

n8sebaka on December 14, 2011 at 3:24 PM

Here is how a poll conducted by PPP is written about on HuffPo:

US-Obama Approval: 44% Approve, 52% Disapprove (PPP/Daily Kos/SEIU 11/17-20)

Why anyone on HotAir (or elsewhere in the right blogosphere) takes anything from PPP seriously is beyond me.

angryed on December 14, 2011 at 3:24 PM

Mind-boggling and frustrating that so many Americans want to give this president another four years. They cannot see the evil and destructive man that I see.
Are they uninformed, agree with his radical agenda, don’t care or simply do not believe that he is capable of purposely damaging our country.
I don’t care who gets the nomination (I wanted Palin) I just want Obama on a helicopter waving good-bye in 2013.

bailey24 on December 14, 2011 at 3:25 PM

No way Bammy takes Virginia this time. Not even close.

stefanite on December 14, 2011 at 3:25 PM

The way forward has been clearly demonstrated by Gingrich: Attack and expose Obama every step of the way. Do the same Romney.

Allendundit on December 14, 2011 at 3:25 PM

PPP gets paid by lefty blogs and orgs, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re just making up stuff ;)

I only follow Real Clear Politics polls, which does averages of everybody elses polls.

Kaine and Allen (VA-Sen) are in a statistical tie right now, as I’m sure they will be on election eve. Just add 10 points to the Republican candidate for your tiebreaker, which is what our congressman won by.

DeniseVB on December 14, 2011 at 3:26 PM

Naah. PPP stands for Piss-Poor Polling.

slickwillie2001 on December 14, 2011 at 3:26 PM

Rasmussen had Romney slightly ahead when they polled there in Oct, looks like. I live in Northern VA and will campaign for whomever is the GOP nominee.

The Count on December 14, 2011 at 3:27 PM

Virginia is a government welfare state, but PPP is crap just like Rasmussen. Polls are for Strippers and Skiers.

CoolChange80 on December 14, 2011 at 3:28 PM

History shall repeat itself.
1995, the republicans shut down the government.
1996, Clinton is re-elected.
Newt Gingrich’s nasty fat hands are all over this AGAIN.
Obama will be re-elected. Count on it.

BedBug on December 14, 2011 at 3:28 PM

All I know is – Newt better start laying off anti-capitalist attacks like this one on Mitt Romney. Newt’s mouth is starting to get him in trouble again with those who might otherwise consider voting for him.

OneVision on December 14, 2011 at 3:28 PM

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0311/52249.html

All you need to know about PPP polls:


The liberal website Daily Kos, with sponsorship from the Service Employees International Union, has commissioned more than 100 PPP polls to be conducted and published over the course of the 2012 election cycle.

Again, I ask: why on earth does anyone at Hot Air take this outfit seriously?

angryed on December 14, 2011 at 3:29 PM

Weighting of donks? +9? +0?

jukin3 on December 14, 2011 at 3:30 PM

It should also be noted that, a month before the first primary, all that matters is the incumbent’s number. Those (48, 50) don’t suggest a strong political position – they suggest a surprisingly tenacious grip on life, at best.

HitNRun on December 14, 2011 at 3:30 PM

..here’s where you’re supposed to break into a torrid analysis of the internals of the poll.

The War Planner on December 14, 2011 at 3:22 PM

Anyway, here’s the internals:

Voted for in 2008:
John McCain 43%
Barack Obama 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember 9%

Political leanings:
Very liberal 9%
Somewhat liberal 15%
Moderate 34%
Somewhat conservative 24%
Very conservative 18%

Man versus Woman:
Woman 55%
Man 45%

Democrat v. Republican v. independent
Democrat 36%
Republican 33%
Independent/Other 31%

White v. Black v. Other:
White 73%
African-American 19%
Other 8%

Age:
18 to 29 14%
30 to 45 30%
46 to 65 36%
Older than 65 20%

The War Planner on December 14, 2011 at 3:31 PM

and PPP over-polled Dems and Independents to make Paul’s numbers higher yesterday in Iowa, by alot.

jp on December 14, 2011 at 3:31 PM

Christine O’Donnell endorses Mitt Romney – http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/12/christine-odonnell-endorses-mitt-romney-for-president/. If Gingrich loses the primary, he can blame her and say “she turned me into a Newt!”

chaos on December 14, 2011 at 3:31 PM

Good, so now he can campaign in Colorado, Georgia, New Mexico, and Washington.

SouthernGent on December 14, 2011 at 3:33 PM

Let’s see: He beats John McCain by a lousy 6 points in a perfect Democrat storm and we’re supposed to believe he’s going to do even better three years later with an economy on the brink of collapse? Even an outfit as biased as PPP should have taken one look at the results of this and realized something went horribly wrong…

ceedude on December 14, 2011 at 3:33 PM

Bari loses in Ohio! Believe me there’s no way he gets 30% let alone 51%

angrymike on December 14, 2011 at 3:34 PM

N8sebaka’s 2012 e[l]ection prediction: Obama will propose to lift the salary freeze on federal salaries before the election. If he doesn’t propose it, then he will push a button in the house and/or senate. Either way, he will pay for reliable votes in Virginia.

n8sebaka on December 14, 2011 at 3:24 PM

..for what it’s worth: I just received a notice that my SS would be increased by 3.6% for COLA starting January.

The War Planner on December 14, 2011 at 3:35 PM

A lot of things can change in 11 months. Including who the nominee will be….

notropis on December 14, 2011 at 3:36 PM

Poll is skewed to women & oldsters….also a small sample. Never trust a ppp poll is my experience. VA will be red next fall.

camaraderie on December 14, 2011 at 3:37 PM

The War Planner on December 14, 2011 at 3:31 PM

Census Facts on VA:

Men/Women 49/51 (PPP Way over sampled women)
% over 65 YO: 12.2% (PPP way over sampled this group)

And 9% voted for someone else or don’t remember? WTF, who doesn’t remember who they voted for in 2008?

Election results were 0.9% for “someone else”. PPP has it at 9.0%. Where do they get this extra 8.1%?

They’re just making it up as they go along.

And again I ask: Why does anyone at HotAir care what a PPP poll says?

angryed on December 14, 2011 at 3:38 PM

Ace of Spades had a long post about PPP during Virgina’s local elections months ago.He showed how PPP leans considerably left in their sampling to keep democrats energized….then they tighten it up towards the end so that they can brag about how close they were later on.

Many polls had 6-10 point swings within days just before elections.

I pretty much watch Rassmussen and Gallup.They seem to have much more credibility and consistent polling history.

Baxter Greene on December 14, 2011 at 3:22 PM

PPP actually had Creigh Deeds within the margin of error against Bob McDonnell around Labor Day in 2009. And they had Jon Corzine beating Chris Christie in every poll right up to Election Day, which caused an awful lot of people here and on other blogs to believe he was going to win. There polling was just laughable in 2009.

I used to work in an office next to one of the top GOP pollsters and learned a ton about how polls can be manipulated. PPP is one of, if not the worst at this. Its polls are good for birdcage liner, not much else.

rockmom on December 14, 2011 at 3:38 PM

Oh please . . . that poll is mathematical garbage. Please check and double check this trash before you headline it.

rplat on December 14, 2011 at 3:38 PM

Again, I ask: why on earth does anyone at Hot Air take this outfit seriously?

angryed on December 14, 2011 at 3:29 PM

We don’t…

… but it sure is good chum for the new trolls.

Seven Percent Solution on December 14, 2011 at 3:38 PM

The numbers might be right… Northern Virginia is still growing with DC transplants, and the Hispanic population is proportionally growing faster in nearly all areas (note: I need to get a reference for this, obviously).

I’m far more encouraged by prospects in Ohio and Florida to be frank, but that’s just my gurgling gut telling me that.

mrkurtz on December 14, 2011 at 3:39 PM

I believe few polls coming out right now because the Democrats spin machine is trying to pick out candidate and will do so by many methods, including inaccurate polling.

My poll, asking people if they’re happy with Obama, says he can only win if there’s a third party candidate to split the Republican vote, other than that, he’s toast. NOt because he’s black, not because he’s a Democrat, but because he’s incompetent.

bflat879 on December 14, 2011 at 3:39 PM

The Gop cannot take VA For granted regardless of the economy, if it does then i don’t know what the point of the primary madness is , every state wherever possible should be fair game.

oliver77 on December 14, 2011 at 3:40 PM

We don’t…

… but it sure is good chum for the new trolls.

Seven Percent Solution on December 14, 2011 at 3:38 PM

Their clicks are as valuable as any clicks I suppose.

angryed on December 14, 2011 at 3:40 PM

What demographic group has suffered by far the most under Obama? African Americans – check. What demographic group continues to support Obama in vast majorities? African Americans – check.

If you are looking for examples of racism in America, you need look no further.

mitchellvii on December 14, 2011 at 3:41 PM

Living in VA for all my life, and mindful of the swing from 2008 to ’09,’10 and ’11, I can’t see Obama or the any democrat emerging with a victory here in 2012. Obama-Pelosi-Reid have damaged the Democrat brand beyond easy repair in the Commonwealth, and Bob McDonnell has shown how a Conservative can govern.

In the just-completed elections of 2011, the GOP widened their lead in the state House of Delegates and won back control of the state Senate for the first time in a decade. “Train kept a rollin’ all night long..”

Even George Allen, the too-confident candidate that LOST the U.S. Senate for the GOP in 2006 with his arrogant “macaca” moment, will win handily over Tim Kaine this time ’round, even though the “polls” show them neck-and-neck just now.

It’s back to Red in VA.

baribunma on December 14, 2011 at 3:41 PM

A PPP poll?

Um, no.

ICanSeeNovFromMyHouse on December 14, 2011 at 3:41 PM

This isn’t surprising as Virginia benefits from big government by its proximity to DC.

Wigglesworth on December 14, 2011 at 3:42 PM

Tina, sweetie, honey, babe..here’s where you’re supposed to break into a torrid analysis of the internals of the poll. You know, like Dem oversampling, etc. we know these numbers make you nervous. they make all of us nervous. But if they’re not a predictor of results then they’re an attempt at manipulation and — if so — we would need to know why.

It’s why a lot of us read HA; for this kind of analysis.

The War Planner on December 14, 2011 at 3:22 PM

Condescending much? If you think it’s a crap post just say so.

dmn1972 on December 14, 2011 at 3:47 PM

When Krauthammer, Romney and every liberal journalist read from the same script regarding Newt, it sure elevates Newt for me. I supported Romney over McCain last time when the media was telling us only McCain could win independents and they lit him up the minute he had the nomination.

Could it be Newt is done with the GOP establishment now after supporting them all those years. Perhaps it took Dede Scozzafava to wake him up but he seems to know who is buttering his bread right now and it ain’t the GOP elites and MSM and that’s okay with me.

DanMan on December 14, 2011 at 3:49 PM

What’s more annoying than these multitudes of polls? GOP debates!

racquetballer on December 14, 2011 at 3:50 PM

Come on Hot Air, you are sounding like that alternate site, Hot Gas.

Everyday now I see one poll or another trotted out with results that show whatever you want it to show. You are pushing the hit counts so much you are using whatever poll floats your boat.

Okay, use the polls but use them with discretion. PPP polls are left wing, so why treat them as such. Gallup, CNN, and a myriad of others are very unscientific.

I would like you all to quote the polls as it is your job to drive traffic, but at least, temper the enthusiasm as we all know 90% of the pollsters don’t know what they are doing and the other 10% know that polls in November don’t mean anything.

bumsteaddithers on December 14, 2011 at 3:51 PM

What demographic group has suffered by far the most under Obama? African Americans – check. What demographic group continues to support Obama in vast majorities? African Americans – check.

If you are looking for examples of racism in America, you need look no further.

That demographic group of which you write has suffered by far under not only unde Obama, but overall dem leadership from local to national, and yet it continues to overwhelmingly support that party which has been mainly responsible for abusing said group.

hawkeye54 on December 14, 2011 at 3:51 PM

I live in Southwestern Virginia. I would love to see where these polls were taken. For these numbers to be real, I would suspect they polled Northeast Virginia around the DC area. However, Virginia does have a lot of die hard Democrat lever pullers regardless of what reality is or isn’t.

aposematic on December 14, 2011 at 3:53 PM

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