Poll: Obama leads both Romney and Gingrich in Virginia

posted at 3:00 pm on December 14, 2011 by Tina Korbe

Virginia looks to be Barack Obama’s “firewall state” in 2012, according to Public Policy Polling — but take that with a grain of salt. As Guy Benson tweeted, “PPP says Obama is leading comfortably in Virginia, which flies [in] the face of … every single thing that has happened in Virginia since 2008.”

Nevertheless, the polls show what the polls show. An excerpt from the executive summary:

Right now we find Obama on positive ground in the state with 48% of voters approving of him to 47% who disapprove. He won Virginia by 6 points against John McCain so his net approval of +1 basically suggests a 5 point decline for him from his 2008 standing.  To put that in context he won the national popular vote by 7 points and our national poll this week put his approval at a -10 spread (42/52), for a 17 point decline nationally.  His numbers are holding up much better in Virginia than most anywhere else.

What sets Obama’s numbers apart in Virginia is that it’s a rare place where Democrats (89%) are more unified in their approval of him than Republicans (87%) are in their disapproval. A lot of Obama’s trouble nationally is being caused by Democrats abandoning ship but in Virginia he has a very strong base behind him.

Obama leads both Mitt Romney (48-42) and Newt Gingrich (50-43) by margins comparable to his 6 point victory over John McCain in 2008. He leads both of them with independents- Romney by 4 and Gingrich by 8. And between the two match ups he’s picking up as many Republicans as he’s losing Democrats, again something we just aren’t seeing in very many places.

Furthermore, PPP says, Obama continues to enjoy particular popularity among a couple key demographics that helped to ensure his election in the first place. With African American voters, he’s ahead of Romney 87-10 and ahead of Gingrich 89-10. Among young voters, he’s up 55-33 on Romney and 57-35 on Gingrich.

Frankly, grain of salt aside, these numbers do make me nervous. Yes, under the leadership of Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell, Virginia has adopted a number of significant conservative policies, particularly in the education realm. And, yes, in the 2010 midterm elections, Republicans picked up a couple seats.

But Virginia will be a battleground state in 2012. Not only did Obama win it in 2008, but the results of the 2010 midterm elections there sent mixed messages, as well. To me, the takeaway from PPP’s numbers is that neither Obama nor the GOP should take Virginia for granted. For all that Obama has failed to lead as president, he hasn’t failed to prioritize his reelection campaign. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: The GOP candidates need to have a strategy in place to peel away — not just Democrats in a general sense — but pragmatic millennial voters from the Obama coalition. For that, it’d help if the GOP could nominate a particularly charismatic candidate — but, even in the absence of a compelling personality, the GOP can hammer home the link between fiscal responsibility and jobs in a way that should appeal to young voters.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2

Polls are iffy things until we have an actual candidate to go up against Obama. Right now, the Republican field is in flux, and it’s impossible to say how any of the potential candidates will do against him.

RebeccaH on December 14, 2011 at 3:53 PM

isn’t Arlington cemetery located in VA?

obama wins in a landslide

acyl72 on December 14, 2011 at 3:54 PM

And 9% voted for someone else or don’t remember? WTF, who doesn’t remember who they voted for in 2008?

Election results were 0.9% for “someone else”. PPP has it at 9.0%. Where do they get this extra 8.1%?

They’re just making it up as they go along.

And again I ask: Why does anyone at HotAir care what a PPP poll says?

angryed on December 14, 2011 at 3:38 PM

..good thoughts, Ed. Thanks for underscoring the “clueless” factor. Can’t you just see the 8.1% being the “he’s gonna make my car and rent payments from his stash” crowd?

The War Planner on December 14, 2011 at 3:54 PM

obama lies too much, practically his whole presidency has been a lie….
no more status quo politicians for me, all the repub candidates want to keep the wars going, and the government growing bigger.

ron paul wants to bring our troops home and restore our freedom….

ron paul is the only candidate who deserves my vote!

songman727 on December 14, 2011 at 3:55 PM

The War Planner on December 14, 2011 at 3:31 PM

It looks like they over-sampled women and African-Americans, which definitely would benefit Barry. I simply don’t buy this poll. The Gallup battleground poll yesterday showed Obama losing to Gingrich and Romney in Virginia, as well as every other battleground state.

TarheelBen on December 14, 2011 at 3:56 PM

Wow! Thank you for allowing me to post a comment! I feel so privileged; like I’m in an exclusive club or something!

KellyW. on December 14, 2011 at 3:21 PM

___________________________________________

Hey there KellyW, yes, I’m happy to be a “newbie” like you too, but I prefer to call myself “probie” used by Agent DiNozzo in NCIS.

But “privileged” not so sure about that, since they also let in “liberal4life”.

Typicalwhitewoman on December 14, 2011 at 3:57 PM

Polls against Obama mean nothing at this time, until the R frontrunner is elected/selected.

Schadenfreude on December 14, 2011 at 3:03 PM

Exactly. The fact he isn’t at 50% on any of these polls shows just how much trouble he’s in.

Once the Republican nominee is decided and all the 3rd party idiots are settled into place, then, and only then, will the polls matter.

ButterflyDragon on December 14, 2011 at 3:59 PM

Dec 14, 2011 3:00 PM by Tina Korbe
Poll: Obama leads both Romney and Gingrich in Virginia
Something to worry about?

How about worrying about supporting and defending our Constitution?

New at the American Thinker…

JustiaGate: ‘Natural Born’ Supreme Court Citations Disappear
By Dianna C. Cotter with L. Donofrio Esq.

ITguy on December 14, 2011 at 4:01 PM

From TIME Magazine:

‘For weeks before the presidential election, the gurus of public opinion polling were nearly unanimous in their findings. In survey after survey, they agreed that the coming choice between President Jimmy Carter and Challenger Ronald Reagan was “too close to call.” A few points at most, they said, separated the two major contenders.

But when the votes were counted, the former California Governor had defeated Carter by a margin of 51% to 41% in the popular vote—a rout for a U.S. presidential race.’

41% sounds about right for Barry. These are the partisans who would vote for the Satan/Hitler ticket (appropriate) if it had (D) next to the names (okay, I stole this joke from another site, but it’s telling).

RobertMN on December 14, 2011 at 4:03 PM

Poll: Obama leads both Romney and Gingrich in Virginia

Barack Hussein Obama will defeat RomneyCare and leftist Rockefeller Republican Newt Pelosi in a general election. These two would be a disaster for the Republican party if either one became the Republican Presidential nominee and according to the media’s “so-called” polls they are now the frontrunners, God forbid. I mean, just insane. How could people be so foolish.

apocalypse on December 14, 2011 at 4:04 PM

Show me a poll with these kinds of numbers closer to election day, then I’ll be worried.

ncconservative on December 14, 2011 at 4:04 PM

Also keep in mind the term Independent can mean anything in these polls

PPP: Who do you vote for usually?
Guy on the phone: I vote Democrat 90% and every now and then I vote for the Green or Communist candidate.
PPP: So I can mark you down as an Independent voter then.

Next call

PPP: Who do you vote for usually?
Guy on the phone: I vote Republican about 55% of the time and Democrat about 45% of the time.
PPP: So I can mark you down as dyed in the wool Republican.

angryed on December 14, 2011 at 4:06 PM

This poll must have been taken in Arlington-Alexandria. All those Gov. workers would be in fear of their jobs and would definitely vote Obama. The rest of us can’t wait to vote him out. I know too many people that have not really participated in elections that can’t wait for Nov. ’12.

BetseyRoss on December 14, 2011 at 4:07 PM

The fact that nearly 90% of Black voters say they will vote for Obama tells me that these voters are making their choices based on race, not on policy. How is this not racist? Why is this not a bigger story?

bluegill on December 14, 2011 at 4:07 PM

Here’s something to think about when considering PPP polls, Tina…

Public Policy Polling scrubs one of their control questions after it showed polls skewed to liberals

PPP is running a great scam in 2011 by trying to establish a narrative that the Republican gains just five months ago have crumbled after only two month in office. Many of their polls are gimmicks according to Nate Silver at NY Times, like the Charlie Sheen versus Sarah Palin poll or the one about the MS segregationalists. I first started covering this trend a few weeks ago.

http://lonelyconservative.com/2011/04/public-policy-polling-scrubs-one-of-their-control-questions-after-it-showed-polls-skewed-to-liberals/

lovingmyUSA on December 14, 2011 at 4:09 PM

I got a call for this poll. I gave all pro-Obama answers, just to help screw up the poll. I find it much more amusing when a twit like Obama loses in a surprise. He won’t win in Virginia.

DeadGuy940 on December 14, 2011 at 4:10 PM

The Virginia label is confusing. What they mean is in Federal Employee’s Land where there never is heard a budget cutting word.

jimw on December 14, 2011 at 4:12 PM

“Polls are for Strippers……

and Cross-Country Skiers”

Green eyed Lady on December 14, 2011 at 4:17 PM

Who is this Tina Korbe and why is she posting here? Let me get this straight from this political savant using Democrat polls to alarm people.

First of all since BO was elected President does she know that PPP was the only polling firm that had McDonnell losing to Deeds in the 2009 election where the Republicans for the first time ever swept every State wide race. Let us not forget Ms Korbe that in 2010 the GOP took back the majority of Congressional seats in the State. I helped with Bob Hurt and Morgan Griffith’s campaigns. If Ms Korbe knew anything about Virginia she would know that Morgan defeated a 14 term Democrat, Rick Boucher. Boucher held his seat during the 80s, 90s and into the 2000 century. He defeated everyone . Do you want to know what the campaign was about. “Boucher voted for Obama”.
Now to finish this off Ms Korbe in 2011 the GOP took the State Senate and added to their majority in the House of Delegates. Never has Virginia gone so thoroughly Republican. This State is so Republican the Jim Webb turned chicken and decided not to seek re-election.
Stop spreading the Democrat propaganda and look at history. Virginia will stay Republican in 2012 and beyond.

Jdripper on December 14, 2011 at 4:17 PM

When Krauthammer, Romney and every liberal journalist read from the same script regarding Newt, it sure elevates Newt for me. I supported Romney over McCain last time when the media was telling us only McCain could win independents and they lit him up the minute he had the nomination.

Could it be Newt is done with the GOP establishment now after supporting them all those years. Perhaps it took Dede Scozzafava to wake him up but he seems to know who is buttering his bread right now and it ain’t the GOP elites and MSM and that’s okay with me.

DanMan on December 14, 2011 at 3:49 PM

THIS!!!! Haven’t any of you noticed the talking heads of the GOP insiders seem to be all on the same page? Would make me wonder if I was one that tended to be leery of the Beltway Repuklicans pushing their candidate on us…

lovingmyUSA on December 14, 2011 at 4:18 PM

Sooo . . .

Is that a poll of 600 Democrats who are claiming to be something else? Every other poll I’ve seen recently says these numbers are way off.

And IIRC, PPP has had issues with the accuracy of its poll in past polls. Has anyone conducted a more detailed analysis of their sampling?

EdmundBurke247 on December 14, 2011 at 4:26 PM

Not so hard to understand when you realize what “PPP” stands for……”Piss Poor Polling”…which is what we should expect from the polling arm of the DNCC.

Texcons on December 14, 2011 at 4:32 PM

Polls showing unwanted candidates like Palin losing.. are set ins tone and immutable. Polls showing Romney losing…mean nothing. Okay.

promachus on December 14, 2011 at 4:33 PM

Love to see the breakdown on the PPP poll in terms of geography. Northern VA and the Richmond central city will go Obama, but the rest of the state is so red as to be scarlet.

What that means very simply is, who’s going to get their voters to show up? Mr. McDonnell and the Pubs did well at that in 2011, but of course Axel-Plouffe is very good at this sort of thing.

If the Pubs get their voters to the polls it’s a replay of 2011, not 2010, and Obama loses Virginia by (my guess) 4 points.

Steve White on December 14, 2011 at 4:34 PM

It’s a PPP poll, nothing to get all worked up over.

D-fusit on December 14, 2011 at 4:36 PM

PPP polling usually is never accurate, until about 1 or 2 months before the actual election. Tom Jensen is a known Democrat, who only gets the numbers right in the end, not 10 months out. FWIW

JDavis on December 14, 2011 at 4:36 PM

Let me say it here loud and clear so everyone hears it – Obama is going to be re-elected. Get used to it. I know it hurts, but the truth hurts. How can he be beat when half of the country are net recipients from the Feds, and given that he will have $1 BB and an army of goons to march around the country “getting out the vote”. He is practically unbeatable. You can take all of your polling and statistical analysis and throw it out the window.

The only candidate in this field who has a chance to beat him is Ron Paul, because he is the only candidate likely to attract enough independents away from Obama, who for every other candidate are either going to vote for Obama or simply stay home.

And he only has a slight chance at that. But he will never get the nomination anyway because Fox News and the neo-cons will do everything in their power to stop him if he wins Iowa.

ReformedDeceptiCon on December 14, 2011 at 4:37 PM

Uuuh…Tina, I don’t understand what makes you so nervous? Obama’s approval is 1% above his disapproval. This is well within the margin of error. And his lead amongst blacks and kids shouldn’t be all that surprising either.

Does Obama have one helluva’ political infrastructure already built in Va.? For sure he does. Does the GOP need to up its ground game in a serious way? Heck, yeah!

But considering the amount of liberality in Virginia, I am confident it can fall away from Mr. Obama. The thing that makes me nervous is that the GOP is his competition. These buffoons are the type of idiots who would look for the corners in a round room.

Mike Elliot on December 14, 2011 at 4:38 PM

Quote by Tom Jensen, founder and CEO of PPP Polling:

“We’re absolutely rooting in the race. We don’t want Richard Burr to get reelected. We wanted Obama to win last fall,”

Richard Burr is a Republican senator from N. Carolina.

Again, I ask. Why does Hot Air take anything from PPP seriously?

angryed on December 14, 2011 at 4:40 PM

Regarding Richard Burr…

Here is what Tom Jensen, CEO of PPP said last year, a few months before the 2010 election.

“Burr’s relatively anonymity for an incumbent Senator can be seen in his approval numbers. 28% of voters still have no opinion of him, with those who do splitting negatively. 34% like the job he’s doing while 39% disapprove.

Pretty bad huh? Burr is finished and will lose to the Democrat challenger right? Might as well not even bother voting Republicans, it is a waste of time.

Election Results: Burr 55%, Democrat 43%

This is what PPP does. They come out with BS poll after BS poll showing the Democrat in a strong position. It’s meant to discourage conservatives. It’s pure propaganda.

Again, I ask. Why does anyone at HA give this Pravda organization any merit?

angryed on December 14, 2011 at 4:46 PM

I don’t think this is something to worry about.

Right now the voters are split, meaning those for Romney are not going to say they’ll vote for Newt and vise versa.

Once the Republicans settle on THE candidate, I think you’ll see the divergent opinions converge to defeat Obama. If they don’t, then it’s another four years of out of control spending and regulations.

I don’t care for Mitt or Newt, but I’ll hold my nose and vote for either of the two in order to remove Obama from the WH.

BMF on December 14, 2011 at 4:51 PM

NO, no cause for concern;

October of 1979, Ronald Reagan

Favorable 38 %
Unfavorable 39%

January 10, 1980 Gallup Poll

Carter 63%
Reagan 32%

October 24 – 26 1980 Registered Voters

Carter 45%
Reagan 42$

October 24 – 26 1980 Likely Voters

Carter 47%
Reagain 39%

October of 1979, Ronald Reagan

Favorable 38 %
Unfavorable 39%

jaydee_007 on December 14, 2011 at 4:54 PM

I’d actually be interested in the crosstabs and geographical spread of this. After all, DC is Obama territory, and if more and more of DC is spilling over in Virginia (which I cannot confirm, but seems logical) then the state will go blue eventually. Even if PPP is polling such a shift a few years early…

Phil_NL on December 14, 2011 at 5:13 PM

The People Of Virginia, what is your damage? Why do you continue to vote for such thugs,losers and libtards?

RiCkY.D. on December 14, 2011 at 5:14 PM

The People Of Virginia, what is your damage? Why do you continue to vote for such thugs,losers and libtards?

RiCkY.D. on December 14, 2011 at 5:14 PM

You caught in a time warp there sonny? We’re talking about something that hasn’t happened yet.

Oldnuke on December 14, 2011 at 5:17 PM

Poll internals? Show me poll internals first, then I’ll judge the poll. And since it’s a PPP poll, I can only imagine…100 18-34 adults…at a Starbucks in DC.

runningpundit on December 14, 2011 at 5:25 PM

Yeah, PPP, now there’s some folks with ‘street cred’. Hahahahahaha!!!!

GarandFan on December 14, 2011 at 5:30 PM

Polls showing unwanted candidates like Palin losing.. are set ins tone and immutable. Polls showing Romney losing…mean nothing. Okay.

promachus on December 14, 2011 at 4:33 PM

Give it up already.

She has….AGAIN.

CW on December 14, 2011 at 5:46 PM

Really? No one asked me!

Hey! I wanna add some reality to your poll.

TerryW on December 14, 2011 at 5:52 PM

I believe Obama’s fate in Virginia will be closely tied to the Senate race between former governor and DNC chairman Tim Kaine(D) and former governor and Senator George Allen(R). It is going to be very negative contest and the “Race card” and the Macca incident will be used against Allen. The polls, especially PPP’s is meaningless at this time. The state of the economy November 2012 will tilt the balance.

olde forester on December 14, 2011 at 5:58 PM

All those Gov. workers would be in fear of their jobs and would definitely vote Obama.

Wrong. I’m a VA resident who’s been a fed for 15 years, quite fearful for my job in the current climate, and you couldn’t get me to vote for Obama if you held a gun to my head.

mrsknightley on December 14, 2011 at 6:14 PM

Sorry, but I’m not buying the polling. As a Virginian and resident of the people’s republic of Arlington (about as pro-Obama an area as you can find) I’m just not seeing that Virginians are agog over a second term for the jug-eared idiot. Particularly since Obama’s “yes we can” campaign has morphed into a “why we failed” series of excuses.

Obama was the first “rat” to win Virginia since JFK and I don’t think the state will make the same mistake in 2012 it made when this idiot was elected. Coupled with this election is the Senate race pitting George Allen against Obama’s b**ch- Tim Kaine. And make no mistake that Virginia takes politics seriously. Both of these Senate canadites are former and popular governors. Virginia does not allow governors to serve more than four years before leaving office so any ambitious governor heads for federal office. Allen was a good Senator de-railed by a smear campaign. Kaine is Obama’s b**ch who spent most of his time as governor doing the bidding of the DNC. There are other candidates but the fact of the matter is that it really comes down to Kaine v. Allen and since both did a decent job as governor it is a toss-up who will win.

Happy Nomad on December 14, 2011 at 6:29 PM

Furthermore, PPP says, Obama continues to enjoy particular popularity among a couple key demographics that helped to ensure his election in the first place. With African American voters, he’s ahead of Romney 87-10 and ahead of Gingrich 89-10. Among young voters, he’s up 55-33 on Romney and 57-35 on Gingrich.

Isn’t this about the political class demographic whom Obama generously rewarded with cushy government jobs and great benefits in unprecedented numbers? Isn’t Virginia where a lot of these lucky, lucky federal employees live?

Buy Danish on December 14, 2011 at 6:35 PM

Polls this far out showing Obammy winning anything over anyone is simply the liberals carrying his water and are meaningless. The only numbers that will matter are the votes cast on November 6, 2012. If the economy and jobs are still in the tank, Obama loses in a landslide. The liberals will do all possible to manufacture good economic and jobless numbers to help the Dems. We just learned that the numbers of houses sold were off by a full 50% for the past few years. No one in the media or even Republicans questioned those numbers, so who will question the economic or jobless numbers?

I will bet Romney’s $10,000 that the numbers will be falsified, starting next spring, and by October we will be back to full employment, the economy will be growing by a whopping 5% and Obama will be the savior of it all. All of it will of course be a big lie, but as we all know if you tell the lie long enough it eventually is believed. And we have a lot of dumb Americans. Obama being elected is proof of that.

they lie on December 14, 2011 at 7:10 PM

See! This is the kind of stuff that drives me deep into an eeyore depression. I want to just blow it off but some deep recessed portion of my brain screams warning warning warning! On a side note, Tina, giiirrrlll you are fffffiiiine!

ghettogasman on December 14, 2011 at 7:21 PM

This poll isn’t worth the paper … uh, electrons … it’s printed on. At this point conservative and Republican support is split among multiple candidates. As soon as we have a crowned candidate, regardless of who (s)he is, the numbers will be staggeringly different.

Samantha on December 14, 2011 at 8:43 PM

Eh – I live in central Virginia, and no one I know plans to vote for Obama. There’s one car in the lot at work that still has an Obama sticker on it from 2008 (guess this was one of the few Obama voters that didn’t trade his clunker in) but I haven’t even seen him put that 2012 sticker on yet.

Waiting for McDonnell’s term as gov to be up so he can run for higher office. Would love to see him move up the ranks. He’s brought a lot of business to VA and seems to be able to run the state on a budget so he at least knows what a budget is. LOL

nachomama on December 14, 2011 at 8:58 PM

Let’s not forget that Reagan was behind Carter as late as September, so these early polls don’t mean squat. Wait until people see the Republican candidate debate Obama and remind the idiot Independents that voting for the “cool” guy won’t make this a better country.

Decoski on December 14, 2011 at 9:56 PM

Poll: Obama leads both Romney and Gingrich in Virginia

A ham sandwich can beat Obama, time to write its’ name on the ballot.

rukiddingme on December 14, 2011 at 11:31 PM

Virginia is on a LOTB deathwatch. Gm’bye Virginia.

Coronagold on December 15, 2011 at 12:19 AM

Do not forget that election in New York City awhile back. Weiner resigned and a Republican took the seat. That election was huge. Bigger than most people will admit. That district was considered extremely safe for democrats yet they lost it. That election alone should tell the world just where Obama and the democrat party stand with the people.

gasmeterguy on December 15, 2011 at 12:49 AM

Yanno, Pennsyltucky was a bellweather state also until this PPP poll reared it’s pernicious head in VA. What’s next for PPP ? A polling comparison between Obama and Jerry Sandusky ?

Defensive coordinator in a landslide.

Get real.

DevilsPrinciple on December 15, 2011 at 10:52 AM

My, my, my . . . what’s with all the hatin’ on Tina here for? She’s as young as she’s smart and beautiful. Do I agree with everything she says? Maybe not. But that’s no occasion for the “babe” and “honey” comments, or the other hateful rhetoric being bandied about. I can say that I’m from the Old Dominion and that I can see why Barry may buck what happened in Virginia in 2009 and 2010. But unless things get better for him, he can kiss this Commonwealth goodbye. Might be close, but close is like the Redskins losing in overtime. Still another loss in the standings.

ieplaya on December 15, 2011 at 11:03 AM

The problem with us in Virginia is that inside the beltway aka northern Virginia is significantly more liberal than the rest of the state. If 40%+ of Federal workers didn’t live in VA, along with large immigrant and welfare populations, we’d be bright red.

DCnative on December 15, 2011 at 1:48 PM

Polls showing unwanted candidates like Palin losing.. are set ins tone and immutable. Polls showing Romney losing…mean nothing. Okay.

promachus on December 14, 2011 at 4:33 PM

If polls matter 11 months from the general, why will we bother with the campaign?
Just like the goofy SP polls they used to run to dissuade her from entering: if I, who think she has the best blend of skills, positions, leadership, principles and pragmatism of all the potential R candidates, don’t support her in a poll of declared candidates, what relevance would that poll have if she had run? None.

I agree that it’s now too late for her, because she needed to go through the entire process for her credibility’s sake, but even now no one else has demonstrated the abilities she has.

I’ll be voting for the R nominee, but I dislike all of them somewhat. But O’bama? He!! no.

rwenger43 on December 15, 2011 at 2:01 PM

The Obama camp thinks GA is in play, too. Ha. Their aren’t enough car trunks to stuff ballot boxes in to make that happen.

Many Georgians were huge fans of Herman Caine, because we want to be cheerleaders for minorities who are willing to walk away from the plantation–even if the social ties were too strong for his wife to come, too. If we can’t be happy with any of our candidates, we’ll support the one that makes the biggest cultural statement in favor of conservatism.

And it’s not Obama.

rwenger43 on December 15, 2011 at 2:06 PM

Comment pages: 1 2