NBC/WSJ poll: Gingrich hits 40 percent nationally

posted at 7:43 pm on December 13, 2011 by Allahpundit

The standard caveats apply — only state polls really matter, it’s a poll of registered voters instead of likelies, etc — but this is in fact a milestone. The closest anyone else has gotten to 40 percent in any poll this year was Perry, who reached 38 percent in an NBC/WSJ survey back in late August.

Perry’s now fifth — behind Bachmann?

How’s Newt doing it? Purity:

Fifty-seven percent of Republican primary voters view Gingrich as a conservative, 28 percent see him as a moderate and 10 percent believe he’s liberal.

By comparison, 53 percent of them view Romney as a moderate, 29 percent see him as a conservative and 11 percent believe he’s a liberal.

“Romney’s problem has always been ideology,” Hart says…

Gingrich enjoys strong [favorable] numbers among Republicans (46 percent positive vs. 21 percent negative), conservatives (42 percent positive vs. 23 percent negative) and Tea Party supporters (54 percent positive vs. 16 percent negative). In fact, they are higher than Romney’s numbers among these same three key Republican groups.

In a three-way race with Romney and Paul, Gingrich leads 53/31/13. One not-so-minor detail, though: Obama leads Romney by just two points head to head but leads Gingrich by 11 thanks to Newt’s weakness among women and independents. Romney’s already made electability an overt part of his campaign messaging but I wonder if he’ll be even more heavy-handed about it over the next three weeks. Conservatives might be willing to forgive Newt for his personal transgressions and his support for mandates and Medicare Part D and his rhetoric on climate change and, oh, a whole lot of other stuff, but if they’re convinced that nominating Gingrich would significantly raise the odds of a second Obama term, that’d be a stone cold dealbreaker. Besides, what other lines of attack are available to Romney at this point? For cripes sake, today he was reduced to accusing Newt of being an “extremely unreliable leader in the conservative world.” You know Mitt’s quiver is empty when he’s forced to point fingers at other candidates for being insufficiently doctrinaire. Gingrich should take Major Garrett’s advice and respond with a simple question: What were you doing in 1994?

Nate Silver published his first election model of Iowa tonight just as this new NBC poll was breaking online. His prediction: Gingrich 25, Paul 21, Romney 16, Perry 12, Bachmann 11. Needless to say, that result would be hugely damaging to Mitt; if Perry and/or Bachmann surged a bit and knocked him back to fourth or even fifth place, it could sink him in New Hampshire. While you mull that, I’ll leave you with these two data sets. The numbers speak for themselves in the first set, but I’m not sure how to read the second. It’s insane and frightening that a plurality would prioritize “the one percent” over the state of the economy and the deficit, but then again, if this is the best OWSers can do when conditions for stoking class resentment are this favorable to them, maybe that’s good news after all.

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This just in from a later and better national poll:

33% – Gingrich
27% – Romney

That’s Romney’s best showing in at least 6 weeks. We still sure it was a “gaffe” for Romney to do his $10,000 bet? Or are the inconvenient truths about Gingrich starting to sink in?

Seixon on December 14, 2011 at 6:40 AM

Newt is SOCCER MOM POISON!

Can u imagine a SocMom pulling the lever for an old, paunchy. serial adulterer and his mistress now wife?

Not gonna happen.

Soft Glove Progressives are still Progressives.

And if 60% of GOP voters support Newt Romney then doesn’t that show the GOP doesn’t care or we’ve done a lousy job educating voters of the dangers of Progressivism?

We need to do a better job passing links, sending emails, etc.

PappyD61 on December 14, 2011 at 7:10 AM

The other huge problem with Newt Gingrich is that he would make it extremely easy for Obama to shape and push the debate toward discussion of the Republican nominee’s attributes and AWAY from Obama’s record/the economy. The less time we spend talking about the economy, the greater the chance Obama will be re-elected. The Obama campaign’s strategy will be to go after the Republican in the harshest, strongest terms, attempting to frame the debate around the suitability and personal characteristics of the Republican. Newt Gingrich provides the Obama campaign with a treasure chest full of material with which to paint Newt in the most unflattering terms. The Dems would easily get people talking about Newt’s past and personal issues, so there would be less focus on the economy.

Romney is squeaky clean in the personal ethics department. Even his detractors have to concede that. All the attacks from the DNC against Romney (and Romney HAS been the candidate they have directed almost all their fire at) have been weak and seemed like they were stretching. Romney is the Republican candidate with the broadest general election appeal, and he would make it very hard for Obama to position the debate around the Republican’s attributes. Romney would repeal Obamacare, appoint conservative Supreme Court justices (his campaign advisor is Bork!) and make it possible for us to accomplish important entitlement reform. Romney would give us the best chance to defeat Obama. Voting for Gingrich makes absolutely zero sense, either ideologically or strategically.

bluegill on December 14, 2011 at 7:31 AM

Reuters has him at 28%.

kg598301 on December 14, 2011 at 7:45 AM

can we lay off the Romney is the only guy that can beat Obama meme? if i wanted to choose between 2 democrats i’d register as a Dem and vote in their primaries.

bannor on December 14, 2011 at 7:52 AM

http://www.cracked.com/cracked-64-top-8-everything-of-2011/Person/

That goes for Newt too.

Browncoatone on December 14, 2011 at 7:55 AM

IA polls already trending downward. The country’s apathetic voters will catch up next week.

swamp_yankee on December 13, 2011 at 7:52 PM

You’re right. The only candidates going up in the Iowa polls are Perry and Bachmann.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html

kg598301 on December 14, 2011 at 8:00 AM

Really, REALLY?!? Romney is the only one who can beat Obama?!? He’s McCain reflux FGS!!! Gang, we’re getting played again and we’re going to relive the nightmare of ’08. At least we have chances with presenting a real difference to Obama instead of another republican-lite, McCain clone. Yes, the others have plenty of flaws, but with Romney it’s just McCain deja vu. This can’t be happening again!!!

mozalf on December 14, 2011 at 8:17 AM

This whole absurd Newt Gingrich fantasy has got to end.

I like Newt, but my feeling is he would be VERY easy pickings for Obama in the general election. The career politician-turned-Freddie-and-Fannie-lobbyist/adulterer Newt has flipped and flopped more than anyone and has little appeal to independents and moderate Democrats (who have become increasingly disenchanted with Obama)

i think the general electorate will be charmed by newt smooth talking the same as conservatives.

, and he’s not any more conservative than Romney (who I think has the best chance to beat Obama).

actually no. they are both they same type of conservative.
romney current tack to the right is untrue. his past history shows his true colors.
newt will say anything to please the crowd but if an average is made, he is the same centrist republican as romney.

It makes absolutely no sense to me that the former Cain and Palin supporters would now be latching on to the most liberal Republican running, Newt Gingrich. If they wanted an arguably “more conservative” person than Romney (who I think is plenty conservative and would make an effective, outstanding president, by the way), then why not go for Santorum? or Bachmann? or Perry, if you can get over the fact that he has trouble speaking coherently?

true. however i dont think people are choosing newt for his conservative credentials over romney. they are choosing him because his personal qualities. he is smart, very knowledgeable and super smooth talker. romney however sounds like an fake constructed polititian.
newt comes across not as a fake, but just as a charming liar politician. however, people are willing to forgive newt many lies.

With Gingrich, all you have is someone arguably LESS conservative than Romney AND less attractive to independent voters in the general election. We need those voters to win! Voting for Gingrich in the primary is voting for increased likelihood of a second Obama term.

independents will grow to like him. if he can charm the conservatives, he will charm the rest as well.

Romney has a great record in appointing conservative judges, and we are going to need a Republican president for the upcoming Supreme Court vacancy appointments. Let’s quit fooling around with this election!

romney will disappointed conservatives the same as newt. his current prolife take is fake.

I think that a lot of you forget that the general election voters aren’t made up of only people like us (regular HotAir readers) or Republican primary voters. The candidate that the Dems fear the most and would be the toughest to run against is Mitt Romney. Nominating divisive Newt Gingrich would be repellant to independent voters and a HUGE gift to Obama’s re-election campaign.

maybe not

If we want to go with a riskier pick, then what’s wrong with Santorum? He doesn’t have most of the problems that Newt has. I would wholeheartedly support any of the Republicans as nominee, but I WANT TO WIN and am terrified that Gingrich would bring disaster and a landslide victory for Obama.

predict much?

Newt Gingrich, who sided with liberal Republican Houses candidates (Dede Scozzafava in New York 23) over a competitive conservative, who supported national health insurance mandates that went far beyond what Romney ever did, and who teamed up with Nancy Pelosi to call for government action to fight GloBULL warming,

all true but the electorate dont seems to care.

will easily be painted by Dems as the guy who was thrown out of his post by fellow Republicans, who was slapped with fines for ethics violations, who is strongly disliked by the conservatives who worked most closely with him, who worked as a lobbyist for Fannie and Freddie, who cheated on multiple wives, who comes across as pompous and condescending, and who is best known by the general electorate as the person who was blamed for shutting down the government under Bill Clinton.

all true, but i am not sure how much the general electorate will care about decades old stuff. the recent stuff like fannie and freddie will be forgiven.

Do we want to beat Obama, or do we want to just go along with the flavor of the month, which now happens to be Gingrich? Defeating Obama should be priority one!

bluegill on December 14, 2011 at 6:11 AM

newt is good to defeat obama. his charm and wits will win the day

nathor on December 14, 2011 at 8:30 AM

Really, REALLY?!? Romney is the only one who can beat Obama?!? He’s McCain reflux FGS!!! Gang, we’re getting played again and we’re going to relive the nightmare of ’08. At least we have chances with presenting a real difference to Obama instead of another republican-lite, McCain clone. Yes, the others have plenty of flaws, but with Romney it’s just McCain deja vu. This can’t be happening again!!!

mozalf on December 14, 2011 at 8:17 AM

Personally I think Huntsman has a much better chance beating Obama. I will definitely stay home if the republicans nominate him instead of voting Obama who i happen not to support. However i do intend to hold my nose and vote for Barry as you all call him if anyone else is nominated

Uppereastside on December 14, 2011 at 8:37 AM

Romney is too much of a glass jaw. He has skin as thick as Obama’s.He isnt ready for public office.

Flapjackmaka on December 14, 2011 at 8:41 AM

To: Stenwin 77

Please keep posting. You are one of the few who make
any sense.

Amjean on December 14, 2011 at 8:55 AM

Uppereastside on December 14, 2011 at 8:37 AM

What?, …..we are doomed.

Bmore on December 14, 2011 at 9:06 AM

wi farmgirl on December 13, 2011 at 8:25 PM

I like to look at history as a lesson much like Newt.
In 1979, when he was first in office, he did some stupid stuff. During Reagan’s years, those were his initial growing up years, I believe he learned much from Reagan. When Bush I was in office, and was going to renege on his “Read my lips, no new taxes” pledge, he fought back and got many rank and file republicans very upset with himself. I think we can all agree that Newt was right on that pledge. When Clinton was in office, he co-wrote the Contract With America, and I think he had aspirations of actually enacting all of those points in it. I think the Republicans who voted him into the Speakership thought it was just politics as usual and in reality they were going to do what Washington politicians do, increase their own power while they had the chance. Newt threw them a curve ball when he actually worked feverishly to actually try and get the Contract passed into law. He was able to balance the budget, and do massive welfare reform. This is in fact the single time in the last 60 years when government power in Washington was reduced. I think those rank and file Republicans got furious with their loss of power at just the time that they finally got hold of the reigns of government. This is why they backed bogus ethics charges against Newt. Out of the 70odd charges, not a single original charge was provable. The only reason he was ever censured and fined was that one of his lawyers submitted an incorrect paper, one which Newt had supplied several versions of that all were correct, and Newt gave testimony about which was also the truth. But needing to get rid of the Washington reformer, many rank and file Washington loving Republicans who got used to their cushy lifestyles on capitol hill voted against him on the ethics charge. The following year they voted him out of the Speakership (really just did not vote for him), and after winning the next election, he resigned leaving an easy pick up in a special election for the republicans.

When the rubber meets the pavement, Newt is pretty rock solid conservative (not perfect, even Reagan had bad policies), but he has showed that he is willing to lose his job doing the right things.

astonerii on December 13, 2011 at 10:03 PM

You are correct. I am old enough to remember. Now, you young
ones who are getting your Newt “facts” from either your liberal
neighbor or Huffington Post, listen up – we have a country to
save. Newt has promised to reverse Obama’s policies within minutes of taking office. That is good enough for me.

And if the country can “forgive” Clinton’s fornicating with a cigar (or whatever) outside the oval office with a girl young
enough to be his daughter, the rape accusations, the hundreds
of one night stands his state troopers brought to him and his
12 year affair with Jennifer Flowers……..we can certainly
“forgive” or “understand” Newt’s two lengthy marriages breaking
up for reasons other than cheating, however, certainly including
Newt’s cheating. I am sure that Clarista has him on a short rope
and we won’t see a repeat. So, those of you with the huge
moral compasses – Get over yourselves!

Amjean on December 14, 2011 at 9:07 AM

bluegill on December 14, 2011 at 6:11 AM

We put Romney up last time. His name at the time was McCain. How did that work out? That is right, not well at all.
The country is in crisis and needs dramatic changes in the direction it is headed. Romney, as you so carefully noted is a pretty lame guy when it comes to making dramatic changes towards the right direction. In fact, he is awesome if you want to barrel down the tracks towards the cliff.

astonerii on December 14, 2011 at 9:09 AM

<
please,someone enter the race against these two progessives , or we are doomed. come on sarah

buck taylor on December 14, 2011 at 9:15 AM

I would just love someone to ask Ron Paul in the debate tomorrow……

Why do you support and associate yourself with the group “Code Pink”?? A radical Left wing Enviornmental Group and US Military hater?

Why are your views closely aligned with the “Articles of Confederation” than the US Constitution?

What are your views on Abraham Lincoln?

Why is your Chief of campain staff a racist, bigot??

Mark these words People…..the closer Mr. Nuts gets the top in the polls…..he’s due for a rectal exam.

This will be fun to watch……now bend over Mr. Paul.

coach1228 on December 14, 2011 at 9:21 AM

I’m leaning towards Newt, but I’ll vote for whoever wins the nomination – all I care about is getting Obama out of the White House and turning this country around from the damage he and the other Democrats made.

dukecitygirl on December 14, 2011 at 9:26 AM

You are correct. I am old enough to remember. Now, you young
ones who are getting your Newt “facts” from either your liberal
neighbor or Huffington Post, listen up – we have a country to
save. Newt has promised to reverse Obama’s policies within minutes of taking office. That is good enough for me.

And if the country can “forgive” Clinton’s fornicating with a cigar (or whatever) outside the oval office with a girl young
enough to be his daughter, the rape accusations, the hundreds
of one night stands his state troopers brought to him and his
12 year affair with Jennifer Flowers……..we can certainly
“forgive” or “understand” Newt’s two lengthy marriages breaking
up for reasons other than cheating, however, certainly including
Newt’s cheating. I am sure that Clarista has him on a short rope
and we won’t see a repeat. So, those of you with the huge
moral compasses – Get over yourselves!

Amjean on December 14, 2011 at 9:07 AM

Amjean….REALLY?? Is that all you got? Seriously?? astonerii made GREAT points and you CANNOT dispute them…rather go to another point about Newts wife? Really?? First..”conservatives”….believe in “stay the Hell out of our Personal lives” Humm…and you seem to dwell on “personal” crap. You need to get over it yourself… A Pathetic response.

coach1228 on December 14, 2011 at 9:30 AM

America Needs Newt Now!

Pragmatic on December 14, 2011 at 9:32 AM

Gingrich will never pass a conservative litmus test, as he opportunistically finds directions for his political energy (think ADHD), but his basic instincts are deeply conservative, and they guide his creativity.

Go Newt!

Truizm on December 14, 2011 at 9:41 AM

At least Pual isn’t tied with Newt like he is in Iowa, his foreign policy is scary.

constitutionalist_Va on December 14, 2011 at 9:43 AM

Let’s face it folks, it’s Newt. Newt’s the man. He’s going to be our nominee. And, he’ll go on to destroy Obama in the General Election and become our next President. Book it.

jfs756 on December 14, 2011 at 9:45 AM

I don’t think fidelity should matter in a presidential race, we are in deep trouble and need fiscal sanity ASAP. I have never had to answer any questions of my fidelity when applying for a job. We are letting the Liberals use it against us.

constitutionalist_Va on December 14, 2011 at 9:47 AM

Gingrich is a has been. He hasn’t been relevant for 12 years. He is a backroom wheeler dealer who became rich because of insider contacts. He lost principle to partner w/Nancy Pelosi, Al gore etc.. He was a paid lobbyist for the medicare fix in 2003 that blew a whole in medicare, he recieved $1.8 million to stop freddie mac reform in 2006- the housing collapse happened in 2008. He recieved $312,000 for supporting ethanol subsidies (Iowa),etc.

He goes on Fox touting small government, yey this crony capitalist works behind the scenes to make government bigger. He is a hypocrite.

He has no chance beating the Anti Christ Obamanation. Conservatives like me will never vote for this rat.

To the republican establishment, lose Gingrich & romneycare and get a real conservative in the race. If not, your giving us Obama again. By this field, it almost looks like you want Obama re-elected.

Danielvito on December 14, 2011 at 9:50 AM

I started out a Romney guy but became increasingly dissapointed with his schoolyard antics. Until recently would never have considered Gingich or Huntsman but now it has become quite apparent that these are the only two who won’t play that stupid gotcha game. The way the other candidates are campagning/debating is an insult to the intelligence of republicans everywhere and I believe this is the reason for the Speakers rise in the polls.

steel guy on December 14, 2011 at 9:53 AM

When did Newt become a conservative and Romney become a moderate? Four years ago Romney was the conservative answer to McCain. Now he is McCain. That same year, Newt was sitting on a sofa with Nancy Pelosi telling us we had to do something about global warming.

I agree that Mitt Romney is no Tea Party conservative, but neither is Newt.

aprazman on December 14, 2011 at 9:54 AM

Seriously, are we seriously going to make Gingrich the nominee?? I can’t believe these #’s.

NWA Conservative on December 14, 2011 at 9:58 AM

In 1979, when he was first in office, he did some stupid stuff. During Reagan’s years, those were his initial growing up years, I believe he learned much from Reagan. When Bush I was in office, and was going to renege on his “Read my lips, no new taxes” pledge, he fought back and got many rank and file republicans very upset with himself. I think we can all agree that Newt was right on that pledge. When Clinton was in office, he co-wrote the Contract With America, and I think he had aspirations of actually enacting all of those points in it. I think the Republicans who voted him into the Speakership thought it was just politics as usual and in reality they were going to do what Washington politicians do, increase their own power while they had the chance. Newt threw them a curve ball when he actually worked feverishly to actually try and get the Contract passed into law. He was able to balance the budget, and do massive welfare reform. This is in fact the single time in the last 60 years when government power in Washington was reduced. I think those rank and file Republicans got furious with their loss of power at just the time that they finally got hold of the reigns of government. This is why they backed bogus ethics charges against Newt. Out of the 70odd charges, not a single original charge was provable. The only reason he was ever censured and fined was that one of his lawyers submitted an incorrect paper, one which Newt had supplied several versions of that all were correct, and Newt gave testimony about which was also the truth. But needing to get rid of the Washington reformer, many rank and file Washington loving Republicans who got used to their cushy lifestyles on capitol hill voted against him on the ethics charge. The following year they voted him out of the Speakership (really just did not vote for him), and after winning the next election, he resigned leaving an easy pick up in a special election for the republicans.

When the rubber meets the pavement, Newt is pretty rock solid conservative (not perfect, even Reagan had bad policies), but he has showed that he is willing to lose his job doing the right things.

astonerii, you have the history exactly right. Your account should be sent to anyone trying to understand Newts contribution and trajectory.

Even cringe-inducing moments, like the Pelosi climate change scene, were too-clever-by-half tactics to hijack a seemingly popular movement and realign it in a conservative direction. Doubting that Newt is a conservative is like the left doubting that BO is a socialist. It is confusing the underbrush with the forest!

Truizm on December 14, 2011 at 10:02 AM

I have been whipsawed around-the-horn of candidates like most. Most recently I was on the Newt bandwagon, too. However, anyone that believes FDR was the best President of the 20th century clearly has a misunderstanding of history. And history is his specialty? Really?

I, for one, will not allow the MSM to guide me to a decision. I am moving back to the Perry bus. Clearly he is a believer in conservate causes and states rights. (And now my “debate prayer’s” will commence!) Defeating Obama is akin to defeating Communism; a war that Reagan did not win (he won a battle; the war continues).

Carnac on December 14, 2011 at 10:03 AM

I have no great love for Romney but Obama will win re-election if Gingrich wins the nomination.

ncgalt1984 on December 14, 2011 at 10:26 AM

How can Newt be that popular? Have Conservatives got really short memories or something? This guy is a progressive, plain and simple!! May as well just re-elect Obama, there won’t be any difference.

steve123 on December 14, 2011 at 10:29 AM

… anyone that believes FDR was the best President of the 20th century clearly has a misunderstanding of history. And history is his specialty? Really?

Newt respects FDR in form, but not in content. Just like Obama appreciates Reagan’s ability to “shift the paradigm”. Try to keep the big picture in focus!

Truizm on December 14, 2011 at 10:31 AM

Amjean….REALLY?? Is that all you got? Seriously?? astonerii made GREAT points and you CANNOT dispute them…rather go to another point about Newts wife? Really?? First..”conservatives”….believe in “stay the Hell out of our Personal lives” Humm…and you seem to dwell on “personal” crap. You need to get over it yourself… A Pathetic response.

coach1228 on December 14, 2011 at 9:30 AM

Perhaps you have not had your caffeine boost yet this am.

I stated that I agreed with the Astonerili point of view. Then
I rebutted the tired “Newt cheated on his wives” theme that always pops up when those who are for another candidate cannot get their
facts straight about Newt’s record.

What is your problem?

Amjean on December 14, 2011 at 10:33 AM

So interesting to me to hear and read all the bloggers and comments attacking Newt, feels so like MSNBC and liberal comments. Stop attacking the GOP candidates, the left is loving it. The media wants Mitt, they do not decide. Change we CAN believe in.

who won on December 14, 2011 at 10:46 AM

Seriously, the Newton is the worst of the GOP candidates.

The man is a flake.

Gunlock Bill on December 14, 2011 at 10:48 AM

newt is good to defeat obama. his charm and wits will win the day

nathor on December 14, 2011 at 8:30 AM

Yeah? How can Gingrich charm his way out of taking money from the entity that bankrupt the country, supports a federal mandate, and is a serial adulterer?

csdeven on December 14, 2011 at 10:51 AM

First & Foremost, is to Vote BHO & His Many Alliances out of our Federal Building..
Nominations & Running are one thing, Winning, going all the way are a total other..
American Voters, can not allow, to ever have another Candidate or Re-elect, to ever be shoved down our throats again..
This 2 party system, that is totally responsible, for delivering America, to this shameful & even dangerous Here & Now.!
Brand Name Electable Parties, Career Professional Politician, for over 40 plus years, Delivering our America to this Economic,Financial,Social,Spiritual,Political Abyss & Epic Debt..!
It is their self serving promotion,endorsing, enabling of anything & everything that grows,enmeshes & manifest,Big Gov-Ism Insanity..!
They were all there!
Always a Secure, Strong Nation, with a Modern Armed Forces..
Once a True World Hub of Export, Now a Nation of Importation, Dependence & Record Unemployment,Nationwide..
Regulatory Big Gov-Ism Alliances, with Brand Name Electable Parties all there, for 40 plus years, watching it transform,enmesh,manifest before them and did nothing..?!
Fly our Flag…
Real true Conservatism, with real Conservatives can position our America, to be Saved, to be Stabilized and to be Resurrected for one and All.!
We will never come up & out of the Abyss, with the Same Old, Same Old, it is illogical to think it or Vote For It..

Jeff Johnson on December 14, 2011 at 10:52 AM

Gingrich is a brainstormer that thinks outside the box.

But, if you look at his accomplishments, he is the most accomplished conservative in modern times, since Reagan.

How is the track record of Republicans since Gingrich?

Hastert?
Boehner?
DeLay?

Since Gingrich was speaker, Republicans have gone soft, caved into democrats and allowed federal government to balloon to near economic catastrophe levels these days.

As for the current race, voters are simple. They boil everything down into, does this candidate inspire my confidence in beating Obama. Gingrich is the only one.

Common_Cents on December 14, 2011 at 11:08 AM

Wow, glad they opened registration. Have been wanting to post here forever.

Regarding polls from far left MSM outlets like NBC, always look to the sample before making any judgements. The BIG news in this poll is that while Newt does very well with Republicans, he gets CRUSHED by Obama in the General.

Of course, consider the source. This poll has 10% more Obama voters than McCain voters in it. Obama beat McCain by 7 points so this poll assumes Obama is actually 3 points MORE popular today than he was on election day 2008 – right preposterous.

The takeaway? Obama is a known quantity whose support is stuck in the low 40′s amongst registered voters (a sample which favors him as well). Newt is a leading contender whose support has not solidified beneath him for the general. While Gingrich’s support will surge once he is the nominee, Obama’s will not move much – end result, Gingrich wins in a walk in the General.

mitchellvii on December 14, 2011 at 11:09 AM

Elections are not about finding perfection in candidates, it’s about finding the best imperfect candidate in the midst of imperfection.

Gingrich is the best in this horrible field.

Cosell1968 on December 14, 2011 at 11:10 AM

I can’t believe the GOP is poised to nominate Gingrich. Surely there has to be someone better than the current crop running? Yeah, yeah I know the argument that anyone is better than Obama but I’d really like to have someone I can vote FOR instead of just voting AGAINST the other guy time after time. Besides, I really don’t want to trade one set of problems for others as well as I strongly believe Gingrich will cave on many of his promises – just like he did as Speaker.

JohnAGJ on December 14, 2011 at 11:20 AM

Newt respects FDR in form, but not in content. Just like Obama appreciates Reagan’s ability to “shift the paradigm”. Try to keep the big picture in focus!

Truizm on December 14, 2011 at 10:31 AM

If you say so. Then, let’s refer to Newt himself and let Newt define Newt: “I’m frankly a realpolitik Wilsonian.”

That’s enough for me. I am outta here. “Waiter. Check please.”

Carnac on December 14, 2011 at 11:22 AM

I guess Newt is the best candidate the Republicans can muster.

Sad, sad, sad.

The state of US politics has gone the way of Time magazine. Last time McCain, now Newt. The Republican leadership needs new blood badly. Before long without it, the Republican leadership will be a sorry as the democrats.

With the population growing more dependent on the government dole everyday, it is just a matter of short time until more than half the voting public will be beholding to their paymasters, and the big slide of the USA will be irreversibly underway.

Thanks Republicans. You make me almost a sick as the Democrats. Our only hope is that the govenment dependent masses will get sick of the dole, but it hasn’t been the case in the urban minority ranks. They simply scream for more and usually get it. What happens when the money and credit runs out? The USSA?

saiga on December 14, 2011 at 11:25 AM

John McCain came in 4th in Iowa…with 13%.

Remember when the Bachmann surge?
Remember the Perry surge?
Remember the Cain surge?
And right now it’s the Gingrich surge.
Still to come…the Paul Surge, the Huntsman surge,
and the…ok, well maybe not the Santorum surge.
But overall, an excellent setup for the Obama surge.

verbaluce on December 14, 2011 at 11:33 AM

Romney supporters are constantly harping that there are no perfect candidates to those off of Romney’s bandwagon. But, those same Romney supporters condemn Gingrich for not being a perfect candidate. News flash: there are no perfect candidates and certainly there are no candidates in the top tier even close to Conservative. Romney’s record as Gov. of MA exhibited socialism at its worst, at least sometimes Gingrich leans to the right when his professorial leanings aren’t controlling his thoughts. Both have their fingers in the air hopping for the turbine to produce more than negative energy.

aposematic on December 14, 2011 at 11:39 AM

Iowa turned out to be significant because it gave us Jimmy Carter in 1976, not that alone should have procluded taking it seriously, The next time around it was Reagan’s break out, thanks to the Des Moines
debate, that was actually right around the time of the primary, What this really indicates, is there is a significant portion of the Iowa
electorate that is either uncommitted or soft in their support.

narciso on December 14, 2011 at 11:44 AM

Even better than Herb Cain’s nine, nine,nine, is Newt’s 40, 40, 40. Translation: New national poll, share of body fat in his head, and counting Calypso, Newt, at 33%, is working on the highly coveted 40 percent faithfulness rating .

borntoraisehogs on December 14, 2011 at 11:47 AM

Actually it is not a poll of registered voters, I think this poll says it is People, some of whom have a cell phone but not a land line, 200 of them or so, and 20% of the people responding, if this is the same poll, didn’t vote last time. It is a national popularity poll, not a poll of likely voters, or even registered voters. Take a look and correct me if I am wrong. It is a poll for the national media to have something to talk about, and so they can say that, according to this poll, no one likes the Republican led congress. These people in the poll want the Congress to switch back to democrat led 45-43. 12% of the respondents have no idea which they prefer. Not exactly a poll of Hot Air readers.

Fleuries on December 14, 2011 at 11:49 AM

Of course, consider the source. This poll has 10% more Obama voters than McCain voters in it. Obama beat McCain by 7 points so this poll assumes Obama is actually 3 points MORE popular today than he was on election day 2008 – right preposterous.

The takeaway? Obama is a known quantity whose support is stuck in the low 40′s amongst registered voters (a sample which favors him as well). Newt is a leading contender whose support has not solidified beneath him for the general. While Gingrich’s support will surge once he is the nominee, Obama’s will not move much – end result, Gingrich wins in a walk in the General.mitchellvii on December 14, 2011 at 11:09 AM

This is correct. In fact, surveys have shown that Dems are losing registered supporters especially in the swing states, where Romney and Gingrich are doing well in h2h w/ obama. H2H matchups are ridiculous at this point so early with the Republican support so splintered and focused on circular firing squads.

Once Gingrich is nominated and the support consolidates look out. The fact that any R is even close to Obama is terrible news for Dems.

I am watching Obama now at Ft. Bragg. He’s got camouflaged teleprompters! LOL

Common_Cents on December 14, 2011 at 12:00 PM

Shouldn’t NBC/WSJ be required to put a disclaimer on all their polls indicating the massive oversampling of Libs? Just saying…

Teeklee on December 14, 2011 at 12:16 PM

Realistically speaking, national polls don’t mean much since the later states go with whoever the early states choose.

conservativechristian on December 14, 2011 at 12:21 PM

Common cents and Teeklee, you have to twist real hard to know what to interpret here, you might make just about any claim you wanted to from this poll!

When I was working on a campaign, we paid more money and relied more heavily on polls of likely voters. People who actually get out on a regular basis and participate, in primaries and local elections. I am not sure how important it is at this point what uninformed people who are not going to vote in the primaries matter to the primary process and the selection of the republican candidate. It is a very small sample of nationwide republican primary voter respondents.

But as a popularity contest, these uninformed voters don’t think highly of Congress. Do you remember the Zeigler (?) poll after the last election where his people interviewed the Obama voters on civics questions, and they thought that Congress (Nancy Pelosi’s) must be Republican because George Bush was a Republican. They also knew that ONE candidate had a pregnant daughter and said she could see Russia from her house.

When I get a call from pollsters, I try to let my answer reflect better on the republicans and the Tea Party congressional leaders, because at least the PPP that phoned me, had trick questions in it to make it sound like I hated Mitch McConnell. I wonder about answering…”don’t know”…maybe I would just rather sound stupid and uninformed than have my impatience, frustration with someone like Mitch McConnell be interpreted that I HATE the REPUBLICAN Congress, like the media is so quick to interpret it.

I want to see a question that says: The Republican Congress has passed 27 bills and sent them to the Congress, are you at all informed about these bills? Which ones do you favor? Which ones should Harry Reid take up immediately? and Which ones whould Obama sign with NO Time to WASTE?

Fleuries on December 14, 2011 at 12:38 PM

The national polls are nice to get a general sense of a candadite’s strength, but it’s all about the battleground states! Who can deliver OH and PA?

chris1964 on December 14, 2011 at 12:43 PM

bluegill on December 14, 2011 at 6:11 AM

Well said. I’m not sure I agree Obama would win in a landslide, but Newt definitely has more weaknesses than some of our other candidates. Where is the support for conservatives like Santorum? With Newt and Mitt being the front runners, why isn’t there more talk of Huntsman? His only baggage is working for the Obama administration as an ambassador.

aprazman on December 14, 2011 at 12:50 PM

Todays rasmuusen poll has Obama 49 gingrich 39.

article also says Romney has been the only one to stay in contention with obama.

Gerry-moderate republican-Romney supporter-but no longer a troll(until Ed says so)

gerrym51 on December 14, 2011 at 1:14 PM

How in the hell do many here get that Romney is McCain…If you recall, McCain was the one-time war hero who spent twenty years or so skewering all things Republican at the National level. What does that have to do with Romney? Furthermore, McCain is/was a tired old man running for the toughest job in the world. Mitt is a proven executive. He is young, strong, and steady. He may not be Reagan incarnate, but he is the right man in this field. He is certainly not McCain II. Perry is not going to come back from his many mis-steps. Sorry, but for many in the squishy middle, he’s another GW Bush with poorer communication skills. Newt is the supposed conservative genius…If so, why was his time as Speaker so brief? Why did he abrubtly resign? Why has he spent thirty years in Washington drifting from one cause to another. He’s not exactly what the founders had in mind as the citizen statesman who did his job and went home to private enterprise. Newt is really the quintessential Washington insider, feeding off the government tit. As well, he’s anther tired old man, now with trophy third wife running for the toughest job in the world. I don’t think he is physically up to the task. GW Bush was largely successful with his policies because he fought like a lion for them. He put in the hard work day after day, week after week, year after year. Newt’s too soft for that. He would be a Republican Obama spewing words of wisdom from his bully pulpit and leaving the real work for the underlings and lobbyists to do…His lightening rod personality would quickly kill his chances of gaining consensus for his policies, sorta like his brief tenure as speaker…I won’t mention the also rans since they are running for VP, Cabinet posts and personal edification…

Nozzle on December 15, 2011 at 7:36 AM

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