Gallup: Republicans gain ground in swing states

posted at 12:15 pm on December 13, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

Barack Obama wanted to change the direction of American politics, and it looks as though he has succeeded — to his own detriment.   A new USA Today/Gallup poll shows a nine-point change in party identification in the swing states that Obama must carry to win re-election next year.  And despite the fractious nature of the Republican primary at the moment, either of the two top candidates would beat Obama overall in these states:

The contrasting conditions of the nation’s two major political parties — discouraged Democrats and resurgent Republicans — underscore how different Obama’s re-election campaign is from the contest four years ago.

Consider the math: In 2008, when Obama carried the swing states by 8 percentage points, Democrats there swamped Republicans in party identification by 11 points. Now, that partisan edge has tightened to a statistically insignificant 2 points.

That’s not the only problem facing Democrats next year.  In 2008, thanks to Bush fatigue and Obama’s populism, Democratic voter enthusiasm helped lift Obama to a seven-point victory in the national popular vote, and an eight-point lead in the swing states.  That has now flipped in favor of the Republicans — by a very wide margin:

And the “enthusiasm gap” that helped fuel a Democratic victory last time has turned into a Republican asset. Sixty-one percent of Republicans say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for president next year, compared with 47% of Democrats.

Among the most enthusiastic are some of the GOP‘s core voters: conservatives, middle-aged men and those 50 to 64 years old. Those who are least enthused include core Democratic groups that were critical to Obama’s election in 2008, including minorities and younger voters.

Which states did Gallup and USA Today poll?

This is the second in a series of surveys that USA TODAY and Gallup will be taking through the 2012 campaign focused on 12 swing states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New HampshireNew Mexico,North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

The bad news for Obama?  He won every one of those states in 2008.  If Republicans flip all of these states, the Republicans will win the Electoral College, 326-212.  If Obama hangs onto a couple of traditional Democratic states — say, Pennsylvania and Michigan — it’s a lot closer at 288-250.  However, Obama also carried the normally Republican state of Indiana in 2008, which the USA Today/Gallup survey treats as a non-swing state.  Putting Indiana back in the Republican column changes that calculation to 299-239, and the first calculation to 337-201.

There’s more bad news for Team Obama as well, which is the nature of head-to-head comparisons while only one party has a contested primary.  The GOP has not united behind a single candidate, and the passions of the primary fight will act to depress the results for those candidates.  The key here is that Obama can’t get above 45% in these swing states against either candidate, which indicates that the actual general-election results could be significantly worse — perhaps a 10-point loss.  After all, Obama himself told CBS that he will be judged against the alternative, and that low polling figure at this stage in swing states bodes ill for Obama in that comparison.


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bu bye

screwauger on December 13, 2011 at 12:19 PM

But, but, but…according to CBS wasn’t Obama leading in the solidly Republican South Carolina? How can this be….?

blue13326 on December 13, 2011 at 12:19 PM

Shock. Awe.

How are his numbers this high?

John_Locke on December 13, 2011 at 12:19 PM

Just don’t call him a monkey or look at his butt.

Bishop on December 13, 2011 at 12:19 PM

Mmmm. Anyone but PBHO!!!

dmn1972 on December 13, 2011 at 12:20 PM

Bad news for dear leader is a good day for moi :)

cmsinaz on December 13, 2011 at 12:20 PM

If left wing propagandist Gallup is producing these results , then it must be even far worse for Obama

LeeSeneca on December 13, 2011 at 12:20 PM

Bad news for dear leader is a good day for moi :)

cmsinaz on December 13, 2011 at 12:20 PM

Dang… you beat me to it!

SteveInRTP on December 13, 2011 at 12:22 PM

Please God don’t let some r go third party! We can win this if the votes aren’t split. We have got to get bho out of our house in 2012!
L

letget on December 13, 2011 at 12:23 PM

Heh, Michael Tomasky, the Obama-caca-eating fool, thinks otherwise.

Schadenfreude on December 13, 2011 at 12:23 PM

Weren’t Carter and Reagan tied acc to Gallup days before the election?

Akzed on December 13, 2011 at 12:23 PM

Certainly explains a lot about Holder’s trip to Austin.

GrannyDee on December 13, 2011 at 12:23 PM

Best part, that Gallup has Big Gov’t as the land’s problem at 65%, Big Business as the problem at 26 and unfortunately Big Labor as the problem, only at 8%.

Schadenfreude on December 13, 2011 at 12:24 PM

Nominating will hand the presidency to obama!11!!1!11!!

JAGonzo on December 13, 2011 at 12:25 PM

Poor Soetoro. We are just to stupid to appreciate his greatness.

BR549 on December 13, 2011 at 12:25 PM

So were people lying when they said they liked him as a person?

BettyRuth on December 13, 2011 at 12:25 PM

Great minds Steve :)

cmsinaz on December 13, 2011 at 12:26 PM

get rid of BHO

gerrym51 on December 13, 2011 at 12:26 PM

Why would anyone have a lack of enthusiasm for our dear leader? Really, if Donald Duck ran against BHO, I’d vote for the duck…

rightmom2 on December 13, 2011 at 12:26 PM

Nominating >insert candidate’s name other than Romney< will hand the presidency to obama!11!!1!11!!

FIFM

JAGonzo on December 13, 2011 at 12:27 PM

Weren’t Carter and Reagan tied acc to Gallup days before the election?

Akzed on December 13, 2011 at 12:23 PM

The MSM back then kept saying all along the election was neck and neck, too close to call, etc. And Reagan won in a landslide. Nobody I knew could believe the polls were that close.

cartooner on December 13, 2011 at 12:27 PM

John_Locke

The reason-
government handouts, union, dependents, the media, stupid young people,monolithic voting minority blocs, and 47% paying Zero in federal income tax.

CoolChange80 on December 13, 2011 at 12:27 PM

letget on December 13, 2011 at 12:23 PM

A crossover from the Boss Emeritus’s blog?

BuckeyeSam on December 13, 2011 at 12:28 PM

That’s ok, PBHO will abandon whites, working class, Christians, and the rich and instead concentrate his resources on dead voters, illegals, and domestic terrorists.

Bishop on December 13, 2011 at 12:28 PM

The picture looks like Ralphy from A Christmas Story when Scut Frakus is asking him if he’s going to cry.

hawkdriver on December 13, 2011 at 12:29 PM

This all assumes there is going to be an election…

ornery_independent on December 13, 2011 at 12:29 PM

Bad news for dear leader is a good day for moi :)

cmsinaz on December 13, 2011 at 12:20 PM

OT: So many new faces. It took awhile to find a familiar face. And more coming?

BuckeyeSam on December 13, 2011 at 12:31 PM

cmsinaz on December 13, 2011 at 12:26 PM

/begin_suckup/ I’m in good company here at HA; been lurking for about 3 years and finally got in. I’ll try to keep up! /end_suckup/

SteveInRTP on December 13, 2011 at 12:31 PM

“Hey BARRY! Get OFF our White House lawn!”

ornery_independent on December 13, 2011 at 12:31 PM

Remember: this is with the Republicans at their absolute feel-good best. Barry hit his absolute floor months ago, and has actually rebounded a little bit since then. The average voter still has to hear the negatives of whoever the Republican nominee will be. And when they do, many will stick with the known quantity of Bamster.

Daikokuco on December 13, 2011 at 12:32 PM

But all the GOP nominees are unelectable……

LMAO – Garden Gnome ’12

Don’t fret Barry, imagine the speaking fees

ICanSeeNovFromMyHouse on December 13, 2011 at 12:35 PM

bu bye

screwauger on December 13, 2011 at 12:19 PM

Final tally: 337(R) – 201(D)

cya Barry!

Tim_CA on December 13, 2011 at 12:36 PM

Looks like the slower students in the class (i.e. moderates) are finally rubbing two brain cells together and figuring Obama isn’t so swell for their financial portfolio

JB-STLMO on December 13, 2011 at 12:36 PM

BuckeyeSam on December 13, 2011 at 12:28 PM

I post on MM under the same name as I do here.
L

letget on December 13, 2011 at 12:37 PM

Remember: this is with the Republicans at their absolute feel-good best. Barry hit his absolute floor months ago, and has actually rebounded a little bit since then. The average voter still has to hear the negatives of whoever the Republican nominee will be. And when they do, many will stick with the known quantity of Bamster.

Daikokuco on December 13, 2011 at 12:32 PM

I am not sure if I buy that. A lot of infighting right now in the party and we don’t really know what o’s floor is because of pi$$ poor polling conducted up to date. Anybody who goes running back to Little o after what has happened over the last three years should be exiled to Cuba.

JAGonzo on December 13, 2011 at 12:39 PM

This moron deserves to be overthrown next year. Looks like enough people are figuring it out.

The Count on December 13, 2011 at 12:40 PM

BO would lose to a ham sandwich

Van124 on December 13, 2011 at 12:42 PM

I’ve been saying for awhile that the GOP candidate doesn’t really matter, because the voter intensity this time around is with simply getting rid of Obama. This will be an ABO election, and ABO’s gonna win.

Rational Thought on December 13, 2011 at 12:43 PM

Hey Buckeye :)

Welcome Steve :)

cmsinaz on December 13, 2011 at 12:43 PM

This is why Obama is fighting ID laws. With ID laws in place 45% means 45%, not 51%.

angryed on December 13, 2011 at 12:43 PM

Weren’t Carter and Reagan tied acc to Gallup days before the election?

Akzed on December 13,

No, Gallup had Carter winning by 5 points registered voters poll and 8 in likely voters

LeeSeneca on December 13, 2011 at 12:44 PM

Obama is so concerned about this, that he gave Iran a nice, new U.S. “spy plane”.

How can ANYone in the Presidency be that incompetent?!? Or, perhaps, complicit.

Lourdes on December 13, 2011 at 12:44 PM

Just don’t call him a monkey or look at his butt.

Bishop on December 13, 2011 at 12:19 PM

What about his wife?

Lourdes on December 13, 2011 at 12:45 PM

Can someone please explain to me what makes Mitt so electable? Did he win some important election by 20 points, is there some evidence we can point to that makes the case?

Mitt has no natural base, except the mushy moderates. Is he going to excite anyone to knock on doors for him? And what about his 1% persona and his flip flops? I get that Newt has baggage, why is Mitt’s any better in the general election?

At least with Newt you know he will fight when necessary, and fight hard. I can see Mitt easily negotiating tax increases with Democrats or caving on important issues instead of trying to persuade the public. This election is too important and Mitt is too big a risk.

Galadriel on December 13, 2011 at 12:47 PM

Sixty-one percent of Republicans say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for president next year, compared with 47% of Democrats.

You betcha I’m extremely enthusiastic! Come November 6th I will be at the polling place at 6am when it opens. We need to put an end to this long national nightmare as quickly as possible.

The only question I have is what is going on behind the scenes in the Democrat party. They’ve got to be watching this polling, the unemployment numbers, the negative polling numbers, and all the rest. Beneath all the swagger and arrogance, Democrats have got to be wondering if it is time to dump the European socialist and find another candidate. But would Hillary or Joe Biden really be able to pull off a victory after four years of criminally bad stewardship? To be a Dem in 2011 is like standing on the deck of the Titanic knowing full well that there is no good outcome.

Happy Nomad on December 13, 2011 at 12:48 PM

“Hey BARRY!

Get OFF our White House lawn

!”

ornery_independent on December 13, 2011 at 12:31 PM

I sense a vast underestimation of how pi**ed off the American people are at Bammy. And his Czars. And his wife. And his Cabinet. And his party.

Lourdes on December 13, 2011 at 12:49 PM

GOTTA have faith in the American people….

LANDSLIDE!

(Unless they cheat it closer)

golfmann on December 13, 2011 at 12:49 PM

Please God don’t let some r go third party! We can win this if the votes aren’t split. We have got to get bho out of our house in 2012!
L

letget on December 13, 2011 at 12:23 PM

Anyone or any media that advocates for a third party is a defacto Obama supporter. PERIOD

Rovin on December 13, 2011 at 12:50 PM

You folks are way too positive. The general election hasn’t even begun yet. Polls like Gallup are secondary to the poll that actually matters on election day. It worries me for us to be too confident at this stage.
.
Keep criticizing Ø and promoting conservative Republicans.

ExpressoBold on December 13, 2011 at 12:52 PM

Let’s hope that news like this continues.

I fear that we could be in a position of “peaking too early”

thegeneral on December 13, 2011 at 12:53 PM

How many percentage points do Obama and Axelrod think they can get from voter fraud?

GaltBlvnAtty on December 13, 2011 at 12:54 PM

You can go ahead and move Virginia over to the red column. It’s a done deal.

stefanite on December 13, 2011 at 12:56 PM

Keep criticizing Ø and promoting conservative Republicans.

ExpressoBold on December 13, 2011 at 12:52 PM

No probs.

I would suggest, however, that we should be positive. That’s not to say cocky and making assumptions that Obama is toast BUT there is every reason in the world to be positive. If conservatives and Republicans can get behind whoever gets the GOP nomination and keeps a positive message, not a few disspirited Democrats will become even more depressed having to support and defend a pathetic loser and an awful administration. It’s really tough to look at any aspect of the Obama administration and proudly defend Obama’s record. It is going to be fun watching Dems becoming more and more angry having to defend that which the all now reeks of failure.

Happy Nomad on December 13, 2011 at 12:58 PM

Consider that 20% of the people polled are probably lying so they don’t get branded as raaaaaacists. So the actual poll results are most likely much worse for OBumf**k

NapaConservative on December 13, 2011 at 12:58 PM

I think by election day next November Bam will look back on today’s polls with wistful recollection. Wait til financial storm of 2012 hits. And the SNAP cards stop working or go intermittent.

JimK on December 13, 2011 at 1:01 PM

The only question I have is what is going on behind the scenes in the Democrat party.

Happy Nomad on December 13, 2011 at 12:48 PM

Fraud, fraud, fraud and fraud. And when they’re done, more fraud.

This is the only option they have. Dead people will not just be voting a couple of times in Philadelphia and Gary, IN. They will be voting 20 times each.

This is why Obama is on a campaign to abolish ID laws. With ID checks in their fraud efforts will be diminished significantly. They know they can’t win without cheating.

angryed on December 13, 2011 at 1:02 PM

Please God don’t let some r go third party!

This is my biggest fear!

suzyque on December 13, 2011 at 1:02 PM

To be a Dem in 2011 is like standing on the deck of the Titanic knowing full well that there is no good outcome.

Happy Nomad on December 13, 2011 at 12:48 PM

..do not give them credit for being that smart. They would be standing on the deck of the Titanic all right but they would be rolling up their pants legs (or hiking up their skirts, in the case of the men) thinking that will be sufficient.

The War Planner on December 13, 2011 at 1:04 PM

No problem, just step up that non-existent voting fraud and we’ll have four more years of failure, whining and blame.

Good times.

NoDonkey on December 13, 2011 at 1:05 PM

You folks are way too positive. The general election hasn’t even begun yet. Polls like Gallup are secondary to the poll that actually matters on election day. It worries me for us to be too confident at this stage.

ExpressoBold on December 13, 2011 at 12:52 PM

..thereby affording The Chicago-Jesus-Butthole-Osculating MSM to push the “Comeback Kid” mantra.

The War Planner on December 13, 2011 at 1:08 PM

Just don’t call him a monkey or look at his butt.

Bishop on December 13, 2011 at 12:19 PM

What about his wife?

Lourdes on December 13, 2011 at 12:45 PM

I do not think one could miss her butt.

The War Planner on December 13, 2011 at 1:10 PM

WHAT DIFFERENCE DOES IT MAKE if the GOP nominates another PROGRESSIVE?????

NO NEWT ROMNEY!!!!

PappyD61 on December 13, 2011 at 1:11 PM

I posted this over at another thread.

Newt is Obama with a paunch, lots of ideas and a proven record of Adultery.

http://www.theblaze.com

PappyD61 on December 13, 2011 at 1:13 PM

Fraud will get them a few close downticket races, but I don’t think the POTUS race will be close enough for them to steal.

Missy on December 13, 2011 at 1:13 PM

And despite the fractious nature of the Republican primary at the moment, either of the two top candidates would beat Obama overall in these states

Nope, not believing it. TRM said there’s no way Governor Romney or Speaker Gingrich could win against Obama and that our only hope of redemption is for Governor Perry to be the GOP nominee.

And if TRM said it, it’s got to be true.

/

Flora Duh on December 13, 2011 at 1:17 PM

Imagine all the mournful media faces the morning after the election, all the tongue clicking, all the articles about how “the American people had a tantrum last night.” Imagine how wonderful that’s going to be. Then imagine Moochelle stopped over some moving boxes, thinking about moving back to Chicago and paying for her own vacations and dreadful clothing, and the wonderfulness just expands. I picture them like King Edward and Wallis Simpson, people without a country, left to hop from tacky nouveau riche party to tacky nouveau riche party, B-list celebrities and politicos hanging on their every inconsequential word as they sponge off friends and acquaintances forever and ever. Oh, I have to stop. I’m getting giddy.

Rational Thought on December 13, 2011 at 1:17 PM

I can’t wait for November 6, 2012. Popcorn, pizza, Sam Adams, my tv remote, and Hot Air.

aunursa on December 13, 2011 at 1:23 PM

The word you are looking for, Rational Thought, I believe is shadenfruede, and I can’t wait to revel in that come November.

stacybernardslay on December 13, 2011 at 1:23 PM

In 2008… Democratic voter enthusiasm helped lift Obama to a seven-point victory in the national popular vote… That has now flipped in favor of the Republicans

In 2008, Obama won 52.9% of the national popular vote.

He was the was the first Democratic Presidential candidate to win over 50% of the national popular vote since Jimmy Carter won 50.1% of the national popular vote in 1976.

Obama is now polling worse than Carter was at the same point in his Presidency.

I believe there are only two ways that Obama could be re-elected:
1) Massive fraud (which is why Dems don’t want voter ID laws)
2) A third-party run that splits the right and hands Obama an electoral college victory with a popular vote percentage in the 40′s. (a la Ross Perot handing Bill Clinton two electoral college victories without ever scaring 50% of the popular vote).

ITguy on December 13, 2011 at 1:24 PM

Lefties are still pimping that Marist poll which claims Obama would beat Newt or Romney….in South Carolina. I really feel bad for them. They have to know doom is coming. It will not be pretty.

TheLastBrainLeft on December 13, 2011 at 1:34 PM

Rational Thought on December 13, 2011 at 1:17 PM

“I knew that I always hated this country” — Michelle Obama

How can 59,054,087 people be so DUMB?”– Media, repeat from 2004

p.s. except that I wish for at least 40 states to be “so DUMB”.

Schadenfreude on December 13, 2011 at 1:34 PM

Remember, Reagan won in 1980 with a third party candidate. I don’t think one would necessarily doom the Republican.

TheLastBrainLeft on December 13, 2011 at 1:35 PM

Never underestimate the Republican’s ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of- aw hell, you know the rest.

tdpwells on December 13, 2011 at 1:38 PM

Remember, Reagan won in 1980 with a third party candidate. I don’t think one would necessarily doom the Republican.

TheLastBrainLeft on December 13, 2011 at 1:35 PM

In all seriousness…the electorate today is an entirely different beast from the electorate of 1980. I hate the Reagan/Carter comparisons for that reason.

tdpwells on December 13, 2011 at 1:39 PM

We are not all socialists now. And we’re pretty sick of those that are.

prodigalson on December 13, 2011 at 1:41 PM

May the trend continue apace!

Yiwen on December 13, 2011 at 1:47 PM

Hmm…Mitt’s doing better than Newt v. Obama in the swing states:

“In swing states, Obama trails former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney among registered voters by 5 points, 43% vs. 48%, and former House speaker Newt Gingrich by 3, 45% vs. 48%.
That’s a bit worse than the president fares nationwide, where he leads Gingrich 50%-44% and edges Romney 47%-46%.”

whatcat on December 13, 2011 at 1:54 PM

Watch DNC come up with a 3rd Party Candidate, or worse yet, our own bunch of idiots, Beck included, I lost all respect for him this week, convince someone to run as 3rd Party. Trump is still a dark horse, IMO, all Soetoro has to do with that billion dollars stash of his is somehow shift a few hundred million of it to Trump to run as 3rd Party (yeah yeah, we all now Trump is a Republican and I have a bridge to sell to you if you believe this BS). Soetoro then doesn’t even need to campaign nor debate, he can play golf all he wants and watch Trump siphon off 10% of the idiots from a Republican nominee, which should be enough for a second term.

Why is it that the demented (so called democrats) always unite behind whoever the party picks, good bad and ugly, and yet Republicans go into conniptions and refuse to support a nominee because he/she doesn’t “match ” just 1 of their many criteria points. I used to be a perfectionist and yes, as much as it meant to me I learned that perfectionism is for dolts, you have and MUST compromise on some things in life. SOME, not all. Some republicans really need to learn that some compromise is a good thing.

I seriously dislike Paul (and being a Jew adds to that), but if he is our nominee come next year I will vote for him, no issue. ANYBODY but the Manchurian Candidate at this point. Just wish some here and elsewhere had some brain matter between the ears to see the obvious.

riddick on December 13, 2011 at 1:59 PM

I don’t trust these polls. They strike be as a desperate and last ditch effort to suppress our vote. The its in the bag mentality needs to be avoided at all costs. Like Yogi said “It ain’t over until its over.” And its far from over.

Bmore on December 13, 2011 at 2:11 PM

Still 11 months to go before the “fat lady sings” so let’s keep her well nourished so that when she sings she blows Obama out the door>

dman232 on December 13, 2011 at 2:24 PM

I can not think of one state Bush won in 2004 that will vote for Oliar again in 2012. Name one. I can’t think of one.

karenhasfreedom on December 13, 2011 at 2:42 PM

For as much as this country hates Bush, I bet he’d beat bari!!!

angrymike on December 13, 2011 at 3:58 PM

This is just evidence that Obama is beatable. I have been saying this for months, a “Dirty Mop” would beat Obama in 2012. Unfortunately, not all the GOP candidates measure up to “Dirty Mop”. I personally hate the GOP field. It just sux. So I am picking the least, worst candidate. At this moment, I think it’s Newt even with his baggage.

BTW, this was my first HA comment. Thanks HA for letting me comment.

TexasorBusted on December 13, 2011 at 4:03 PM

It does seem important that both Romney and Gingrich lead Obama in the swing states, even though they trail him nationally, according to Gallup’s poll. We do need to be careful about interpreting this poll, because we don’t know how the sample was distributed among the swing-states, and the sample in any given state could be too small to be significant.

But these states are where elections are won or lost, and this poll shows that both Romney and Gingrich are electable where it counts. They should not be afraid of running as “conservatives” if 44% of the electorate is conservative, and they need only 7% out of the 35% of moderates to win those states.

Steve Z on December 13, 2011 at 4:04 PM

This just means that the Democrat machines are going to double down and get Mickey Mouse, Bugs Bunny, and the residents of every swing state cemetery registered before election day. Vote early and often!

krutaya on December 13, 2011 at 4:38 PM

need a 10 point margin.

anything less than that and the regime will find bags of votes, lose bags of vets votes and the the dead, felon, illegal alien and multiple voters will make up the difference.

10 points is a lot… especially with electronic voting.

It’s not the people who vote that count… it’s the people who count the vote.
-stalin

acyl72 on December 13, 2011 at 5:25 PM

I can not think of one state Bush won in 2004 that will vote for Oliar again in 2012. Name one. I can’t think of one.

karenhasfreedom on December 13, 2011 at 2:42 PM

Ohio, plenty of dead, felons and multiple voters. Voter ID will be thrown out in early next year.

Any state w/o voter ID and a sizable city/welfare population will end up in obama’s column.

acyl72 on December 13, 2011 at 5:30 PM

Please God don’t let some r go third party! We can win this if the votes aren’t split. We have got to get bho out of our house in 2012!
L

letget on December 13, 2011 at 12:23 PM

Anyone or any media that advocates for a third party is a defacto Obama supporter. PERIOD

Rovin on December 13, 2011 at 12:50 PM

Whatever!

Ralph Nader 2012!

Goldenavatar on December 13, 2011 at 8:40 PM

If that 9 point swing in party ID towards (R) is correct, then the majority of the other pollsters are weighted too much in favor of (D).

MaggiePoo on December 13, 2011 at 10:01 PM

“Hope” the Republicans don’t pull their usual trick of ‘snatching defeat from the jaws of victory’….

If they don’t, that will be a “Change”

Lenguado on December 14, 2011 at 5:29 PM