Florida: Gingrich 47, Romney 17, Cain 15, Paul 5

posted at 4:27 pm on November 30, 2011 by Allahpundit

I know what you’re thinking: “Didn’t Jazz already blog the new giant-lead-for-Gingrich-in-Florida poll?” Actually, no — that was a different poll, conducted by Insider Advantage. This new one comes from PPP. We’ve now got two separate surveys showing Newt Gingrich — Newt Gingrich — above 40 percent in a key battleground state with Romney 20+ points behind.

Come on now. We’re not really going to do this, are we?

In addition to his support for the nomination, Romney’s personal popularity is down too. His Florida favorability was +43 (65/22) and it’s declined 28 points to +15 (51/36). He’s dropped in Montana too although it’s a more modest change there from +11 (47/36) to only +5 (44/39)…

The magnitude of Gingrich’s leads now is an indication that he’s appealing to every segment of the Republican electorate. He’s up with the Tea Party in both states (53% to 24% for Cain and 7% for Romney in Florida, 42% to 18% for Bachmann, 13% for Cain, 10% for Paul, and 5% for Romney in Montana.) But he’s winning over party moderates as well (33% to 22% for Romney in Florida, 31% to 17% for Romney in Montana.) Gingrich’s favorability in Florida is 72/21 and in Montana it’s 65/23. You don’t attain those kinds of numbers without having a lot of appeal to every faction in the party…

As strong as Gingrich is in these polls there’s still evidence he could get stronger. Despite his troubles this week, which voters may not yet be fully aware of, Cain hit double digits on both of these polls. If his declining support bottoms out after the newest set of revelations, Gingrich will be the beneficiary. 45% of Cain voters in Florida say he is their second choice to only 13% for Romney and in Montana Cain backers prefer Newt over Romney 35-11 as a back up.

How strong is the sudden surge of Newtmania? Dude:

The only good news for Romney is that he stands to inherit most of Gingrich’s voters if Newt crumbles, but since there’s already a Cain crumble in progress and Newt stands to mop up most of those votes, the Gingrich implosion would have to be truly cataclysmic to make Florida safe for Mitt before the primary. Another reason he’s doing especially well in Florida is seniors: He was more than 20 points better than his closest competitor among the 65+ crowd in CNN’s latest national poll and PPP’s got him above 54 percent in its new one. We all know what senior turnout is like so he should have no problem getting people to the polls against Romney. He joked this morning at an event in South Carolina that he “only” wants the 65 percent of Republicans that haven’t already committed to Romney or Ron Paul. The way he’s going in Florida, he might get it.

Now, serious question: How is it we’ve landed on Newt instead of taking a second look at Perry? Perry’s last few debates have been fine and he’s spent months groveling to make amends for calling his immigration critics heartless. And of course he’s still got that glamorous Texas jobs record to wield against Obama in the general if he makes it that far. He’s down to almost an asterisk in PPP’s Florida poll, though — just two percent, a point behind Huntsman, after peaking at 24 percent there just two months ago. His favorable rating is an almost unimaginable 27/55, which is right in line with other recent eyepopping surveys. How did we arrive in a universe where there’s an almost 50-point spread in likability between Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich? Isn’t Newt the guy who was a big Donald Berwick fan before being a Donald Berwick fan was decidedly uncool? Wasn’t he way ahead of the curve in pushing health-care ideas like the mandate that conservatives are now ready to destroy Romney for? Didn’t he spend a chunk of the last decade lobbying, in consummate “insider” fashion, and then lamely trying to pretend that it wasn’t, you know, lobbying-lobbying? Hasn’t he been the tea party’s public enemy number one more than once, having endorsed Dede Scozzafava in that special election in New York and then dumping on Paul Ryan’s budget this summer? What about this cavalcade of Newt’s bright ideas that Jim Geraghty spent the morning compiling? Via the Daily Caller, listen to the Mark Steyn clip below for a gloss on that. And yet, and yet, thanks to his surge among Republicans, he’s now viable enough to lead Obama head-to-head and stands a not insignificant chance of running the table in the early states. How did it come to this? Exit quotation: “Whereas I would have thought originally it was going to be Mitt and not-Mitt, I think it’s going to — it may turn out to be Newt and not-Newt.”

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Well Sarah Palin was right – it’s a very unconventional election.

gophergirl on November 30, 2011 at 4:29 PM

How did it come to this?

‘Cuda. The argument against her that resonated (despite being untrue) was that she wasn’t smart enough. Smarts were elevated above every other qualification. That had repercussions.

alwaysfiredup on November 30, 2011 at 4:30 PM

Now, serious question: How is it we’ve landed on Newt instead of taking a second look at Perry?

Because the “base” not only wants NotRomney, they want NotObama (or at least NotObama in mannerisms).

Steve Eggleston on November 30, 2011 at 4:31 PM

Newt ’12.

Why vote for Romney, if you don’t have to?

portlandon on November 30, 2011 at 4:31 PM

What?

Let the generational theft and police state continue.

FloatingRock on November 30, 2011 at 4:31 PM

How did it come to this?

Simple. In trying to stay away from the one guy at the bar that keeps staring at us, we struck up conversations with a bunch of others. One by one, they turned us off for various reasons. Newt hasn’t put his foot in his mouth yet, it’s getting late, and that guy is still staring at us and we don’t want him following us out to our car.

playblu on November 30, 2011 at 4:32 PM

How did it come to this?

One word: Romney.

ElectricPhase on November 30, 2011 at 4:32 PM

IMHO it’s pretty simple: we (conservatives) don’t just need someone who will beat Obama; we need someone who will beat Obama and undo his destructive policies. On the evidence, we have some misgivings about Newt but a LOT of misgivings about Romney.

jwolf on November 30, 2011 at 4:32 PM

WHOA

nitzsche on November 30, 2011 at 4:33 PM

Now, serious question: How is it we’ve landed on Newt instead of taking a second look at Perry?

Because Perry’s debate performances have been awful and voters now he’ll have to debate Obama with a pro-Obama moderator?

Because Perry called voters heartless for disagreeing with him?

Because Perry looked like an idiot forgetting his own platform?

Because Republicans are extremely concerned with the ammunition handed to Obama if we nominate a guy who has explicitly threatened Social Security?

Newt has issues, but none of the ones you cited will turn off most Indies. They piss off conservatives, but most conservatives will come home just to beat Obama. Perry’s biggest issues are with voters in general.

amerpundit on November 30, 2011 at 4:33 PM

Newt!

lorien1973 on November 30, 2011 at 4:34 PM

Now, serious question: How is it we’ve landed on Newt instead of taking a second look at Perry?

Perry isn’t all that conservative. He may be more conservative than Newt, possibly, but he’s inarticulate, he doesn’t make good arguments for his positions and he reminds people of George Bush.

If a somewhat squishy Republican is what we are saddled with, then lets go with one who can argue and isn’t so slow-witted.

sharrukin on November 30, 2011 at 4:34 PM

Hilarious OT:

“In a press conference this evening, the president referred in stumbling fashion to the “English Embassy” in Iran instead of the British Embassy. One can only imagine the kind of howls of derision that would greet any presidential contender if that kind of basic error were made before, say, the editorial board of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.”

Obama thinks there is an “English Embassy”.

Newt will school him in the debates.

portlandon on November 30, 2011 at 4:34 PM

Well Sarah Palin was right – it’s a very unconventional election.

gophergirl on November 30, 2011 at 4:29 PM

And it ain’t over…

idesign on November 30, 2011 at 4:34 PM

Non liberal/leftist voters are quickly beginning to see Romney for the wobbly, quasi liberal he is and Newt for his conservative potential. Gingrich, even with his, non-malignant warts, is smart enough and tough enough to take on and beat the incumbent regime.

rplat on November 30, 2011 at 4:34 PM

Now, serious question: How is it we’ve landed on Newt instead of taking a second look at Perry?

You want Perry to look like a drooling retard during a debate in Sept 2012? I don’t.

lorien1973 on November 30, 2011 at 4:34 PM

Now, serious question: How is it we’ve landed on Newt instead of taking a second look at Perry?

Take two, if I may – Because the Republican base (note I didn’t say “conservative” or “Tea Party”) wants someone as far out of step with the conservative/Tea Party base as possible who can still hoodwink the conservatives and Tea Party types (see McCain 2008).

Steve Eggleston on November 30, 2011 at 4:34 PM

Sure would be interesting to go back and ask the good burghers of Ames, Iowa what they think of Tim Pawlenty now.

Fabozz on November 30, 2011 at 4:35 PM

“Come on now. We’re not really going to do this, are we?”

Just to see Newt debate Obowma…

Seven Percent Solution on November 30, 2011 at 4:35 PM

I have trouble believing that the GOP is going to throw the dice on… of all people… Newt Freaking Gingrich!

The reason it took us this long to get around to him is we all knew he would lose to Obama. Big time. And now, instead of going down with a tea-partier, or a right-wing ideologue, we are preparing to go down with maybe the biggest DC insider there is.

I think I may throw up.

JohnGalt23 on November 30, 2011 at 4:35 PM

We might as well cancel the election and just let Obama keep the keys to the White House.

The Opinionator on November 30, 2011 at 4:35 PM

Now, serious question: How is it we’ve landed on Newt instead of taking a second look at Perry?

Or even a first look at Santorum.

SouthernGent on November 30, 2011 at 4:35 PM

How did it come to this?

because when people said that a ham sandwich could beat Obama, the GOP said “oh yeah?”.

Even for Republicans, I didn’t think they could suck out as bad as they have with this field. Should have guessed that they could play limbo with the bar that Obama has set.

Doctor Zhivago on November 30, 2011 at 4:37 PM

As I wrote on the “I’m not greedy” thread:

Perry screwed up – he wasn’t ready for the big stage. He should have been in a bunker practicing debates and on camera interviews with tough questions and clean answers for the last 9 months. If he had, he’d probably be the front-runner right now. As it is, he looks like a doof, and won’t win anything barring a miracle.

peski on November 30, 2011 at 4:33 PM

peski on November 30, 2011 at 4:37 PM

Or even a first look at Santorum.

SouthernGent on November 30, 2011 at 4:35 PM

I’ve been screaming that for a couple weeks. Santorum’s only problem is, well, he’s conservative.

Steve Eggleston on November 30, 2011 at 4:37 PM

Second look at ham sandwich?

sandee on November 30, 2011 at 4:37 PM

Wrinkles could forget his own name at any given time, he did the Dream Act, he wouldn’t do as well in debates against the One.

I have nothing on Remus Huntsman at this time, I only bring him up to mention his name.

Darksean on November 30, 2011 at 4:37 PM

because when people said that a ham sandwich could beat Obama, the GOP said “oh yeah?”.

Even for Republicans, I didn’t think they could suck out as bad as they have with this field. Should have guessed that they could play limbo with the bar that Obama has set.

Doctor Zhivago on November 30, 2011 at 4:37 PM

Since I’ve already awarded today’s Comment of the Day™, I’ll have to create the Comment of the Campaign™ and give that to you.

Steve Eggleston on November 30, 2011 at 4:38 PM

I’ve been screaming that for a couple weeks. Santorum’s only problem is, well, he’s conservative.

Steve Eggleston on November 30, 2011 at 4:37 PM

That’s not his only problem. In fact, its not a problem.

Santorum’s problems? He endorsed Specter, he lost in his own frakin’ state by double digits, he’s a whiney little twerp and his nose is crooked.

Darksean on November 30, 2011 at 4:38 PM

How did it come to that? Newt can explain ideas and also has shown the ability to admit when he was wrong, unlike Romney.

Well, that and the fact that Ryan, Christie, Palin, etc. did not run for some reason.

cpaulus on November 30, 2011 at 4:39 PM

People believe Newt will withstand the regime/media blitzkrieg better than Perry.

forest on November 30, 2011 at 4:39 PM

How did it come to this?

‘Cuda. The argument against her that resonated (despite being untrue) was that she wasn’t smart enough. Smarts were elevated above every other qualification. That had repercussions.

alwaysfiredup on November 30, 2011 at 4:30 PM

BINGO!

tinkerthinker on November 30, 2011 at 4:40 PM

Newt!

Punchenko on November 30, 2011 at 4:40 PM

I had written off Newt until he apologized for the ad that he cut with Pelosi. He must be saying the right things to a lot of other people, too.

theperfecteconomist on November 30, 2011 at 4:40 PM

Now, serious question: How is it we’ve landed on Newt instead of taking a second look at Perry?

My guess is that people think Perry is plenty conservative, but not nearly articulate enough to make the case to the American people exactly why Obama is such a failure and why conservatism is the answer.

And AP, as far as the laundry list of Newt’s faults are concerned, have you found his responses persuasive at all?

Kataklysmic on November 30, 2011 at 4:41 PM

I think I may throw up.

JohnGalt23 on November 30, 2011 at 4:35 PM

One of the things I think will keep Gingrich conservative during his presidency is his legacy. He is a big history guy. He wants to be the next Reagan. I’d be happy to have someone stay close to Reagan positions (With exception to his amnesty BS).

Newt does not want to go down as a President who stabbed Conservatives in the back.

portlandon on November 30, 2011 at 4:42 PM

Come on now. We’re not really going to do this, are we?

Gulp… this is surreal.

lexhamfox on November 30, 2011 at 4:42 PM

Come on now. We’re not really going to do this, are we?

I hope not…

sandee on November 30, 2011 at 4:43 PM

Or, because Newt can articulate positions we might not agree with, as opposed to poorly saying things we DO like (Perry, Cain, Palin)?

Didn’t Reagan talk about broadening the conservative base not by moving to the middle, but articulating conservative positions in order to convince the middle to agree with HIM?

GASP!

Maybe Newt’s Reagan-ing US!?

playblu on November 30, 2011 at 4:45 PM

My guess is that people think Perry is plenty conservative, but not nearly articulate enough to make the case to the American people exactly why Obama is such a failure and why conservatism is the answer.

Exactly.

Pre-Bush, Perry’s moronic statements wouldn’t be so hard. But I bet many people (like me) cannot do it again. Cannot sit thru 4 or 8 years of a guy who is too inarticulate to defend himself.

lorien1973 on November 30, 2011 at 4:45 PM

It all hinges on “the Heartland”.

The key to the battle between these two professional politicians is genuineness.

Whoever conveys that personality trait most effectively to Conservatives/Republicans will win their vote.

And, right now, it’s not the author of Romneycare.

kingsjester on November 30, 2011 at 4:45 PM

Sure would be interesting to go back and ask the good burghers of Ames, Iowa what they think of Tim Pawlenty now.

Fabozz on November 30, 2011 at 4:35 PM

You know, T-Paw proved to be a big sissy. And then as soon as he got out, he threw all 3 pounds of his political frame behind Mitt Romney.

Sissy. He makes beta males look macho.

beatcanvas on November 30, 2011 at 4:46 PM

Come on now. We’re not really going to do this, are we?

I hope not…

sandee on November 30, 2011 at 4:43 PM

may not want to but we’re stuck between a bloated corpse and Mel Kiper Jr.

Doctor Zhivago on November 30, 2011 at 4:46 PM

Perry isn’t all that conservative. He may be more conservative than Newt, possibly, but he’s inarticulate, he doesn’t make good arguments for his positions and he reminds people of George Bush.

If a somewhat squishy Republican is what we are saddled with, then lets go with one who can argue and isn’t so slow-witted.

sharrukin cynccook on November 30, 2011 at 4:34 PM

Same like you said.

cynccook on November 30, 2011 at 4:46 PM

I am voting for Bachmann in South Carolina’s primary. I just can’t support Gingrich or Romney.

SouthernGent on November 30, 2011 at 4:46 PM

Weren’t the experts just saying that Newt couldn’t really compete because he doesn’t have the big war chest and awesome organization in place? Probably still some truth to that in Iowa because it’s a caucus state, but I think the old model isn’t so predictive as it used to be.

forest on November 30, 2011 at 4:46 PM

One of the things I think will keep Gingrich conservative during his presidency is his legacy. He is a big history guy. He wants to be the next Reagan.

portlandon on November 30, 2011 at 4:42 PM

No, I think he wants to go bigger. I think he wants to go full-blown Thatcher. It’s a shame Coulter, National Review, Mark Steyn, etc. etc. etc. are all against him.

Punchenko on November 30, 2011 at 4:46 PM

It is because he can handle the media better than the others. The media put Obama in and they’ll take our guys, including their darlings Mitt and Huntsman (after they secure the nomination that is).

Plus I think he can be reined in better than Romney. It will take a strong House though.

There is no perfect candidate.

GardenGnome on November 30, 2011 at 4:46 PM

Or even a first look at Santorum.

SouthernGent on November 30, 2011 at 4:35 PM

I’ve seen enough of Santorum from here in PA thankyouverymuch.

alexwest on November 30, 2011 at 4:46 PM

alwaysfiredup on November 30, 2011 at 4:30 PM

Not true. We are seeing the first true post=Palin anti-Romney candidate boom. Many Palinistas didn’t think Cain was qualified, but they are on board with Newt. Hence, these numbers. These are the numbers Palin would’ve got if she’s in the race.

promachus on November 30, 2011 at 4:47 PM

I think I may throw up.

JohnGalt23 on November 30, 2011 at 4:35 PM

Face it, though. Paul has no prayer. That’s just grim reality.

Even if you agree with some of his positions – which many people do – he’s a terrible spokesman for them. It’s really that simple.

Put him in the body of someone who has just a little bit of charisma and things would be different. But they aren’t.

That has been and always will be his problem.

lorien1973 on November 30, 2011 at 4:47 PM

Newt has had hit pieces about his sex life longer than 13 years ago so nothing the MFM can find is new. Been there done that got the t-shirt and already has holes in it from wear.

tjexcite on November 30, 2011 at 4:48 PM

Is there another debate before the first primary? Would be nice to see everyone gun for Newt and see what happens.

lorien1973 on November 30, 2011 at 4:49 PM

imo the rasmussen general poll is more important because it shows he’s not doa in the general, which is conventional wisdom right now.

IR-MN on November 30, 2011 at 4:49 PM

RE: Mark Steyn’s point:

Newt literally “wrote the book” on inflammatory political language.

Pre 1994 revolution, during the whole “Let’s Nationalize the House Election of 1994″, Newt used to run workshops for GOP political candidates schooling them in how to use maximum impact political language such as “pathetic”, “insane”, “miserable”, etc.

They were all videotaped and distributed.

Think we’ll be seeing these (and everything else) in the general if Newt’s the nominee?

aquaviva on November 30, 2011 at 4:49 PM

This is sheer madness. Newt was helping Mayor Bloomberg fundraise for president just a few years ago, and he was one of those Soros-funded Mainstreet Republicans too, bragging about always supporting moderates.

Perry endorsed Hoffman over Scuzzafava. Come on folks, this is madness. Even Romney is more consistently conservative than Gingrich.

juliesa on November 30, 2011 at 4:49 PM

It’s mania.

It’s true that we get the government we deserve, but I don’t want to bring kids into the world we apparently deserve. They’re future is being stripped away, and it’s no surprise that Florida seems to be most gung ho about it.

FloatingRock on November 30, 2011 at 4:50 PM

Darksean on November 30, 2011 at 4:38 PM

You owe me a new keyboard, this one is ruined with coffee!

ROTFLMAO!!

belad on November 30, 2011 at 4:51 PM

jump on board the train……

IT LEAVES THE STATION THE FIRST HEAD TO HEAD DEBATE BETWEEN PRESIDENT UMMMMM AND NEWT! Off teleprompter….there is not enough popcorn in the world to prep for that event…..

SDarchitect on November 30, 2011 at 4:51 PM

Same like you said.

cynccook on November 30, 2011 at 4:46 PM

I have never understood where people see the arch-conservative in Perry. He is somewhat conservative, but more in the George Bush mold than anything else.

sharrukin on November 30, 2011 at 4:52 PM

I just want to see him leave Obama in shambles on that debate stage.

davek70 on November 30, 2011 at 4:52 PM

If younger American’s want to have a decent retirement themselves and not have their futures pulled out from under them they had better line up behind a small-gov candidate, not Newt or Romney.

FloatingRock on November 30, 2011 at 4:53 PM

I think most are just satisfied to have a candidate who can speak directly to the issues with intelligence and poise without sounding obsessively calculatedly noncommittal (Mitt) or fumbling, mumbling, stumbling, bumbling rambling BS (Everyone else) or blurting out pronouncements so bat sh1t, so cuckubananas that the babushkas on The View can only nod and cackle their full agreement(Bachman). Oh and at least Newt doesn’t seem to be completely in the dark about what his willie has been up to all these years. It’s a low bar, but he’s the only one who made.

ronsfi on November 30, 2011 at 4:53 PM

Santorum’s only problem is, well, he’s conservative.

Steve Eggleston

No, Santorum’s problem is that he’s Santorum.

That. Simple.

tree hugging sister on November 30, 2011 at 4:53 PM

He is somewhat conservative, but more in the George Bush mold than anything else.

sharrukin on November 30, 2011 at 4:52 PM

Yeah, he is too tied into the Texas establishment that always made me wince a bit.

Punchenko on November 30, 2011 at 4:53 PM

“…the Gingrich implosion would have to be truly cataclysmic to make Florida safe for Mitt before the primary.”

The only way that could happen…

… is if Newt started to interject “My friends,…” into his speeches.

/

Seven Percent Solution on November 30, 2011 at 4:53 PM

Think we’ll be seeing these (and everything else) in the general if Newt’s the nominee?

aquaviva on November 30, 2011 at 4:49 PM

Fantastic. We’ll see one guy proud to fight for his country, his party and his positiions, and another that can’t release his transcripts, has a public dinner video with wingnut Islamists holed up down at the LA Times, and won’t let anyone look at anything but a scan of his birth certificate.

While Newt is probably smart enough to leave the BC alone, he isn’t the political pantywaist McCain is; the media will be forced to look at Obama if it wants to take shots at Gingrich. It will not be pretty for Obama.

alexwest on November 30, 2011 at 4:54 PM

Don’t worry, everything possible to be done to put a stop to this will be put into motion.

Cindy Munford on November 30, 2011 at 4:54 PM

It’s the media whack-a-mole effect — whenever a GOP candidate becomes prominent, 90% of the media go on the warpath against them.

First Perry was Palinized,, then Cain. Newt is smart enough and has been around long enough that some of it may slide off him, but we’ll see over the next couple months. I think Romney may still be the guy.

The MSM is apparently going to pick our candidate. Oddly, the media’s power may have actually grown in this respect.

TallDave on November 30, 2011 at 4:54 PM

If younger American’s want to have a decent retirement themselves and not have their futures pulled out from under them they had better line up behind a small-gov candidate, not Newt or Romney.

FloatingRock on November 30, 2011 at 4:53 PM

Who would that be?

Punchenko on November 30, 2011 at 4:54 PM

One of the things I think will keep Gingrich conservative during his presidency is his legacy. He is a big history guy. He wants to be the next Reagan. I’d be happy to have someone stay close to Reagan positions (With exception to his amnesty BS).

Newt does not want to go down as a President who stabbed Conservatives in the back.

portlandon on November 30, 2011 at 4:42 PM

No, that’s precisely why he’s the most dangerous. His sense of duty to his legacy will easily eclipse any sense of a commitment to the desires of a conservative base. His entire presidency will be an exercise in waiting to see which Newt will arise from bed on any given morning–the one who thinks entitlement reform is “right-wing social engineering” or the one who sees the political expediency of issuing an apology for sitting on the AGW couch.

TexasDan on November 30, 2011 at 4:54 PM

The only way Romney can dig himself out of this hole is recruit Palin to be his stalking horse. That way, the lead for Newt will split and he will have a fighting chance.

promachus on November 30, 2011 at 4:55 PM

Newt. The way it s’posed to be.

bloggless on November 30, 2011 at 4:55 PM

No, Santorum’s problem is that he’s Santorum.

That. Simple.

tree hugging sister on November 30, 2011 at 4:53 PM

This. Santorum couldn’t carry his home state of PA at this point.

alexwest on November 30, 2011 at 4:55 PM

Who would that be?

Punchenko on November 30, 2011 at 4:54 PM

Sarah Palin.

promachus on November 30, 2011 at 4:55 PM

Given enough time and with an error free performance, Perry could conceivably compete, but there isn’t time and Newt’s snowball is rolling downhill picking up speed and gaining in size. Perry couldn’t compete well against Obama, based on preformed perceptions…you just know Obama would call for a debate a week, as opposed to agreeing to only the mimimum number with Newt, if he can get away with it. Perry has the conservative record and enough governing experience to make a good president. So did Palin. Neither will have the chance.

a capella on November 30, 2011 at 4:56 PM

aquaviva on November 30, 2011 at 4:49 PM

Um, isn’t Obama the rabble rouser? Don’t you remember his “get in their face” stuff.

C’mon. If Newt telling candidates to lay it on thick is the worst they got; that ain’t nothing.

lorien1973 on November 30, 2011 at 4:56 PM

Florida is a winner take all primary. The good news is they were penalized for going early and only get 1/2 of their delegate votes.

huckleberryfriend on November 30, 2011 at 4:56 PM

No, Santorum’s problem is that he’s Santorum.

That. Simple.

tree hugging sister on November 30, 2011 at 4:53 PM

I heard a little bit of him on Glenn Beck’s radio show this morning, and he does seem a bit weenie-ish. Just something about him is off to me.

SouthernGent on November 30, 2011 at 4:56 PM

TallDave on November 30, 2011 at 4:54 PM

No, the media is not responsible for Perry or Cain’s decline.

Punchenko on November 30, 2011 at 4:57 PM

One of the things I think will keep Gingrich conservative during his presidency is his legacy. He is a big history guy. He wants to be the next Reagan. I’d be happy to have someone stay close to Reagan positions (With exception to his amnesty BS).

Newt does not want to go down as a President who stabbed Conservatives in the back.

portlandon on November 30, 2011 at 4:42 PM

I think that’s exactly the case. Plus, he’d have a Republican House and Senate to keep him straight and narrow. He has the ability to put himself into the context of the situation, which is why he’s in the position that he is in right now in the first place. While everyone was attacking Romney he kept attacking Obama and that helped him win every debate. He seems to have learned from his mistakes and is willing to say he was wrong, something Romney has failed to do.

I hope that he picks West as his VP if he wins and they just roll.

cpaulus on November 30, 2011 at 4:57 PM

‘Cuda. The argument against her that resonated (despite being untrue) was that she wasn’t smart enough. Smarts were elevated above every other qualification. That had repercussions.

alwaysfiredup on November 30, 2011 at 4:30 PM

That’s a good point. It’s the biggest reason Perry’s imploded. I live in Texas. I can say with a fair amount of confidence that dude is not a dumb guy. But those flubs in the debates were brutal. And all it’ll take is one of those moments in the general and it’s Barry for 4 more years. Seriously, whomever our candidate is will have to run a damn near perfect campaign to pull this off. And even that may not be enough once the smear merchants come out of the woodwork.

I think that’s why Newt is doing so well. He’s articulate. He’s smart. He’s got a pretty solid record as Speaker to run on. He hasn’t resorted to trashing the rest of the field(unlike Perry, I might add). And best of all, he’s performed so well in these debates that a lot of conservatives are salivating at the thought of the guy going up against Obama in 3 debates(or 7 if we’re really lucky) and just demolishing the dude. Because 2012 isn’t just about taking back the White House and Senate. It’s about punishing the people who put us in this mess and have yet to be held accountable. And I can only speak for myself, but Newt gives me a helluva lot more confidence that he can get the job done than Perry.

Doughboy on November 30, 2011 at 4:57 PM

Newt has had hit pieces about his sex life longer than 13 years ago so nothing the MFM can find is new.

Yeah, but they believe in recycling.

imo the rasmussen general poll is more important because it shows he’s not doa in the general, which is conventional wisdom right now.

Agree.

TallDave on November 30, 2011 at 4:57 PM

Sarah Palin.

promachus on November 30, 2011 at 4:55 PM

She’s not running.

Punchenko on November 30, 2011 at 4:58 PM

Newt ’12.

Why vote for Romney, if you don’t have to?

portlandon on November 30, 2011 at 4:31 PM

Heh. I’ll take that one.

ted c on November 30, 2011 at 4:58 PM

Santorum’s problems? He endorsed Specter, he lost in his own frakin’ state by double digits, he’s a whiney little twerp and his nose is crooked.

Darksean on November 30, 2011 at 4:38 PM

And don’t forget his horse teeth, missing upper lip, and uncanny resemblance to Guy Smiley…

jondun5 on November 30, 2011 at 4:58 PM

Shouldn’t the blame for this be squarely on Romney’s shoulders?

SouthernGent on November 30, 2011 at 4:58 PM

RE: Mark Steyn’s point:

Newt literally “wrote the book” on inflammatory political language.

Pre 1994 revolution, during the whole “Let’s Nationalize the House Election of 1994″, Newt used to run workshops for GOP political candidates schooling them in how to use maximum impact political language such as “pathetic”, “insane”, “miserable”, etc.

They were all videotaped and distributed.

Think we’ll be seeing these (and everything else) in the general if Newt’s the nominee?

aquaviva on November 30, 2011 at 4:49 PM

….and that’s supposed to make us like him less or something? #confused

cynccook on November 30, 2011 at 4:58 PM

Perry screwed up – he wasn’t ready for the big stage. He should have been in a bunker practicing debates and on camera interviews with tough questions and clean answers for the last 9 months. If he had, he’d probably be the front-runner right now. As it is, he looks like a doof, and won’t win anything barring a miracle.

peski on November 30, 2011 at 4:33 PM

True, he would be running a better campaign if he had done that.

But he is the only one besides Paul who is actually in office. TX only has legislative sessions once every two years, and this was the year. He had a job to do, and now he’s being penalized for it. This year’s session was especially important because of redistricting and the balancing the budget in a big recession.

As Perry was making a smaller budget while maintaining job growth and services, the others were sharpening their skills on the campaign trail.

He’s been walking the walk, while they were talking the talk. Jobs. Cutting spending. Cutting debt. Obtaining a credit upgrade. Just the things the US needs most.

juliesa on November 30, 2011 at 4:58 PM

Who would that be?

Punchenko on November 30, 2011 at 4:54 PM

If not Bachmann or Ron Paul then somebody else, but not a big-gov generational thief.

Young people’s interests and Florida’s interests don’t exactly line up.

FloatingRock on November 30, 2011 at 4:58 PM

The only way Romney can dig himself out of this hole is recruit Palin to be his stalking horse. That way, the lead for Newt will split and he will have a fighting chance.

promachus on November 30, 2011 at 4:55 PM

No way Palin would support Romney…

Hell would freeze over!

idesign on November 30, 2011 at 4:59 PM

huckleberryfriend on November 30, 2011 at 4:56 PM

What’s ironic is that Mittens got the primary moved ahead which had cascading affect on all other primaries. Now he’s in a hard place because there’s not enough time to finish off Newt. It backfired on him. More ironic is Mittens played this stunt because he wanted to push Palin off. Now his only chance is to call Palin back in the race. Only she can cut Newt in half and make this a three way race. Otherwise, Romney is toast.

promachus on November 30, 2011 at 5:00 PM

The argument against her that resonated (despite being untrue) was that she wasn’t smart enough. Smarts were elevated above every other qualification.

The argument against Palin was (and is) that she is our Hillary. People already love her or hate her. You aren’t going to sway a lot of people either way. She has a ceiling. It was like 40% or something. That’s it. It ain’t moving very far.

Why do you think hillary lost in 2008? Cuz democrats were smart enough to realize that hillary had a ceiling. She wasn’t passing it.

Our current Hillary nostalgia stems purely from the fact that she is out of sight out of mind. Her being invisible has worked well for her. Cuz no one likes her.

lorien1973 on November 30, 2011 at 5:00 PM

Punchenko on November 30, 2011 at 4:57 PM

Do you remember anything like this dynamic in the Dem 2008 primaries?

Remember, at that time Obama had a racist pastor and ties to left-wing terrorists. Edwards was fathering a child with Rielle Hunter. If the media were inverted, that would have all come out before the general.

TallDave on November 30, 2011 at 5:00 PM

idesign on November 30, 2011 at 4:59 PM

I am not saying she would support Romney. ROmney used his people to push her out, now he should use his people to urge her back in the race. She would enter for her own reasons but only that would make this a three way race at the moment.

promachus on November 30, 2011 at 5:01 PM

Shouldn’t the blame for this be squarely on Romney’s shoulders?

SouthernGent on November 30, 2011 at 4:58 PM

Romney’s prevent defense is losing him the game.

Then again, if Ace’s summary of his Baier interview is accurate, Romney trying to win votes isn’t going well, either.

lorien1973 on November 30, 2011 at 5:01 PM

Young people’s interests and Florida’s interests don’t exactly line up.

FloatingRock on November 30, 2011 at 4:58 PM

Stop speaking for me. I’m with Newt all the way.

Punchenko on November 30, 2011 at 5:02 PM

And don’t forget his horse teeth, missing upper lip, and uncanny resemblance to Guy Smiley…

jondun5 on November 30, 2011 at 4:58 PM

While we’re bashing Santorum’s appearance, can someone tell me whether or not those are plugs on his head? It’s been bugging me for years. It just doesn’t look like his real hair, especially when you watch these debates in HD.

Doughboy on November 30, 2011 at 5:02 PM

I have never understood where people see the arch-conservative in Perry. He is somewhat conservative, but more in the George Bush mold than anything else.

sharrukin on November 30, 2011 at 4:52 PM

I had high hopes for Perry, but frankly, if he couldn’t even keep it together in a campaign against his ideological brethren (oh, and sistren), how on earth would he survive in a death match against Obama, the DNC Death Star and the MSM propaganda machine??

cynccook on November 30, 2011 at 5:02 PM

lorien1973 on November 30, 2011 at 5:00 PM

Again that’s not true. What do you think Newt’s numbers were before this boom? He was polling worse than Palin. Now he’s rising because there’s no other option for a non-Romney candidate to emerge. That’ it. Palin actually has highest favorables with the GOP base. They won’t turn into electable numbers unless she were in the race and people saw with their own eyes how she performed. If she performed well, those numbers would improve.Same as Newt.

promachus on November 30, 2011 at 5:03 PM

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