Huntsmentum: Rasmussen now has Huntsman in double digits in New Hampshire

posted at 5:05 pm on November 29, 2011 by Allahpundit

Dude, it’s happening.

What a difference a month makes in the race for the Republican nomination. In September, Rick Perry was leading in Iowa and running second in New Hampshire. In October, Herman Cain took the lead in Iowa and was running second in New Hampshire. Now, it’s Newt Gingrich’s turn.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary voters in New Hampshire shows former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney on top at 34%, followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 24%. This is the first survey of New Hampshire Primary voters conducted since the Manchester Union Leader endorsed Gingrich.

Huntsman’s in fourth with 11 percent, three points behind Ron Paul. That’s his best poll of the campaign, and doubly noteworthy since it’s a poll of likely voters. His strategy’s always been straightforward: Turn New Hampshire into a two-man race with Romney and then count on the silent “Not Romney” supermajority to sweep him to victory. Two problems with that, though. First, according to Rasmussen’s crosstabs, voters overwhelmingly see Romney as more qualified to be president than Huntsman. Mitt’s split is 79/13 on that question, Huntsman’s is 46/36. I have no idea why — Huntsman served as governor as long as Romney did and has ambassadorial experience to boot — but it is what it is. If it did come to the two of them, Romney would have a huge electability advantage on that point. Second, unlike with Perry, Bachmann, and Cain, there’s no reason to think Gingrich is going away. A catastrophic debate gaffe is unthinkable; a catastrophic personal scandal is more likely but would still be surprising. The sense I get from Newt (and I don’t think I’m alone) is that the big skeletons are already out of the closet and on display because, really, at this point how could they not be? In fact, in an odd way Cain’s difficulties make me more comfortable with Gingrich because at least his peccadilloes are already priced into his stock. So much so, in fact, that I think it’s inured him to some extent against new charges like the reports of him doing de facto lobbying for Bush’s Medicare drug prescription bill. We already know he’s (a) smart and experienced, (b) not Romney, and (c) capable of cringeworthy personal and ideological sins. What’s one more at this point? Coming soon: “Did you know Newt once swiped a lollipop from a toddler and gave it to one of his think-tank clients?” “Yeah, he does that sometimes.” Shrug.

But back to Huntsman. The smaller the field gets, the closer he gets to realizing his strategy, which explains why he’s nudging Cain to drop out this afternoon. He’s also refusing to flatly rule out a third-party run if he flames out in New Hampshire, a prospect that sounds ominous but might not be. If you eyeball the crosstabs to Rasmussen’s poll, it turns out that among Republicans Huntsman’s polling just six percent compared to 38 percent for Romney and 28 percent for Gingrich. Among “others,” though, he’s at 18 percent. (Romney leads in that category too with 29 percent.) Which is to say, would Huntsman running as a “No Labels” independent pull more indies from Obama or more from Romney? If you’re a right-leaning independent who wants O out, you hold your nose and vote for Mitt, secure in the knowledge that he and Huntsman aren’t that different. If you’re a left-leaning independent who’s tired of O, you’ve now got two ways to register your protest vote: If Romney irritates you too much to pull the trigger for him, hey, you’ve got the media’s favorite “reasonable” Republican instead. Logically Huntsman should hurt Romney more, but I think the amount of damage he’d do is negligible given his centrist appeal compared to the damage Ron Paul would do pulling tea partiers away from Romney’s base on the right. Something to keep an eye on.

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I’m happy for you Abby Adams!!

portlandon on November 29, 2011 at 5:07 PM

Grizzly Huntsman is too sexy to be president.

NotCoach on November 29, 2011 at 5:07 PM

Can we PLEASE start over with a brand new set of candidates?

Steve Eggleston on November 29, 2011 at 5:07 PM

Huntsman’s in fourth with 11 percent

Jabba the Huntsman – ELEVENTY!!!!!

peski on November 29, 2011 at 5:08 PM

I’m happy for you Abby Adams!!

portlandon on November 29, 2011 at 5:07 PM

lolz

blatantblue on November 29, 2011 at 5:08 PM

Everytime he speaks I feel the need to shower.

SouthernGent on November 29, 2011 at 5:09 PM

Can we PLEASE start over with a brand new set of candidates?

Steve Eggleston on November 29, 2011 at 5:07 PM

You soooo read my mind!The current group leaves a lot to be desired..

sandee on November 29, 2011 at 5:10 PM

Someone get Abby. She’s fainted somewhere, I’m sure.

SouthernGent on November 29, 2011 at 5:09 PM

Pervert.

lorien1973 on November 29, 2011 at 5:10 PM

His commercials here in NH, running in pretty heavy rotation, portray him as an outsider and conservative candidate. I assume that those 11% of people will peel away from him once they learn more about him.

livefreerdie on November 29, 2011 at 5:10 PM

Go, Alaric Huntsman!!

whatcat on November 29, 2011 at 5:10 PM

Let’s give a hand to Abby Adams since her guy is on the radar! Congratulations, Abby! *tepid applause*

Punchenko on November 29, 2011 at 5:12 PM

Seriously bad news for Romney.

mike_NC9 on November 29, 2011 at 5:13 PM

The man moved to NH, and is spending 100% of his money there, which explains his less than cellar numbers, but isn’t something I would call a campaign.

Vashta.Nerada on November 29, 2011 at 5:14 PM

I’m happy for you Abby Adams!!

portlandon on November 29, 2011 at 5:07 PM

YIPPIE SKIPPIE!!!

I won’t be completely satisfied until he has the nomination, though! ;-)

Abby Adams on November 29, 2011 at 5:15 PM

Obama / Huntsman 2012

It will happen.

GardenGnome on November 29, 2011 at 5:15 PM

Let’s give a hand to Abby Adams since her guy is on the radar! Congratulations, Abby! *tepid applause*

Punchenko on November 29, 2011 at 5:12 PM

Hahaha. You guys crack me up. :-)

Abby Adams on November 29, 2011 at 5:16 PM

They say Jeb Huntsman is the smart one.

BL@KBIRD on November 29, 2011 at 5:16 PM

Any candidate who is drawing numbers away from Romney is a Hero.

portlandon on November 29, 2011 at 5:17 PM

Abby Adams on November 29, 2011 at 5:15 PM

Listen Alfonso Adams, Juanita Huntsman is too much man for you.

NotCoach on November 29, 2011 at 5:17 PM

That’s IT!!!!

Everytime he speaks I feel the need to shower.

SouthernGent on November 29, 2011 at 5:09 PM

I just called it feeling creepy…but you put the feeling I’ve always had into a single splendid and easy to understand sentence!

SOT- How Political Correctness crap is going to get us all killed…that’s right the MOH recipient is the mental case

RedLizard64 on November 29, 2011 at 5:17 PM

Gingrich because at least his peccadilloes are already priced into his stock. So much so, in fact, that I think it’s inured him to some extent against new charges like the reports of him doing de facto lobbying for Bush’s Medicare drug prescription bill

Allah, it looks like all they have is accusing him of being a RINO the dreaded establishment candidate in conservative clothing. This is the worse they can come up with? Oh and politico put up some kind of RINO test so we could score Newt ourselves, that’s mighty white of them lol!

Dr Evil on November 29, 2011 at 5:17 PM

If he gets the nomination somehow, I will definitely vote 3rd party. He is a liberal. He belongs in the dem party

ConservativePartyNow on November 29, 2011 at 5:17 PM

AP, you seem to have warmed up a little to Huntsman. If my memory serves me correctly, you about snarked him to death when he first announced (not that I disagreed with you)

Kataklysmic on November 29, 2011 at 5:19 PM

Rock on Jedediah Huntsman!!!

RedLizard64 on November 29, 2011 at 5:19 PM

ConservativePartyNow on November 29, 2011 at 5:17 PM

On second thought, if he is the nominee, it would be smart for a 3rd party camdidate, because Huntsmann would end up getting the “centerist” dems to vote for him, because that is basically what he is, and obama would only get the far leftist. The 3rd party person would win.

ConservativePartyNow on November 29, 2011 at 5:20 PM

Juanita Huntsman is too much man for you.

NotCoach on November 29, 2011 at 5:17 PM

His name is Cantwell Huntsman. Everyone in NH knows his name is Charles Huntsman. My goodness, you would think you could get someone’s name correct.

Punchenko on November 29, 2011 at 5:21 PM

The way things are going it may come down to the person whom no woman will come forward to accuse of groping/harrassment/affairs no matter how much they pay her.

Could he be the One we are waiting for?

Lily on November 29, 2011 at 5:21 PM

AP, you seem to have warmed up a little to Huntsman. If my memory serves me correctly, you about snarked him to death when he first announced (not that I disagreed with you)

Kataklysmic on November 29, 2011 at 5:19 PM

He wants to meet the Huntsman girls. I can’t blame him, actually.

Punchenko on November 29, 2011 at 5:22 PM

Huntsman’s in fourth with 11 percent

It’s one louder, isn’t it?

Mark1971 on November 29, 2011 at 5:22 PM

Well, he isn’t too bad in the debates if you don’t look at his sickening made for TV MAGNUM expression. Sorry, Abby.

RepubChica on November 29, 2011 at 5:22 PM

Timothy Huntsman is like every girls dream…!

Seven Percent Solution on November 29, 2011 at 5:23 PM

His commercials here in NH, running in pretty heavy rotation, portray him as an outsider and conservative candidate. I assume that those 11% of people will peel away from him once they learn more about him.

livefreerdie on November 29, 2011 at 5:10 PM

Except he really is more conservative than Mitt Romney so there’s that.

I am an Independent so if I voted for Huntsman, that means I would be a left leaning protest vote….oh that makes me feel dirty. Stop teasing me Ron Jeremy Huntsman/

Dr Evil on November 29, 2011 at 5:23 PM

Maybe with luck the GOP will send in the second string – the game is fairly well lost -let’s see what they can do.

Liberals politics are just plain evil.
Republican politics are just plane enabling the evil.

Don L on November 29, 2011 at 5:24 PM

Cokie Roberts is running for president?

Who knew?

BuckeyeSam on November 29, 2011 at 5:26 PM

Back off on the coffee Allah, try some decaf. I love ya man, but did you read that after you wrote it? That’s some rambling crazy stuff.

fogw on November 29, 2011 at 5:26 PM

Tom Huntmans has the solid conservative Joe Scaborough in his corner … what could go wrong?

Jaibones on November 29, 2011 at 5:27 PM

Well as far as I know Augustus Hunstman has never cheated on his wife. Therefore he is the perfect candidate….or so many on HA have been telling me.

angryed on November 29, 2011 at 5:27 PM

He wants to meet the Huntsman girls. I can’t blame him, actually.

Punchenko on November 29, 2011 at 5:22 PM

Me either. That brunette is a hottie.

Kataklysmic on November 29, 2011 at 5:27 PM

ConservativePartyNow on November 29, 2011 at 5:17 PM

If everyone votes for the person that they feel is best for the country, and not just for the party, it shouldn’t matter. There are plenty of liberal ideas that don’t affect me so I say let them have at it. That is what America is all about.

mike_NC9 on November 29, 2011 at 5:27 PM

Up to 11% in a Northeaster state eh? But is Huntsman peaking too soon?/s How does he poll in Utah?

KW64 on November 29, 2011 at 5:28 PM

That brunette is a hottie.

Kataklysmic on November 29, 2011 at 5:27 PM

… and married. :-(

Punchenko on November 29, 2011 at 5:29 PM

Ricardo Huntsman’s Papa is probably going to spend at least $10 million+ on TV ads over the next 4 weeks through the Huntsman SuperPac.

TV ads alone can’t win it for Huntsman, but they can help a bunch. Huntsman’s rise, at least initiatlly, undeniably hurts Romney most.

Robert_Paulson on November 29, 2011 at 5:30 PM

If you’re a right-leaning independent who wants O out, you hold your nose and vote for Mitt, secure in the knowledge that he and Huntsman aren’t that different.

I’d say there is a decent enough difference between the two.

Huntsman is pro-life, and always has been. I can’t quite say the same about Romney.
Huntsman has worked for Reagan, Bush 41, Bush 43 (and, yes, Obama). I can’t say the same for Romney.
Huntsman can hit Obama hard over Obamacare in the general. I can’t quite say the same for Romney.

I know Huntsman is a tad too moderate for some people here (is that too much of an understatement?), but at least I know where he stands. Romney is completely all over the place.
Huntsman is also the only one consistently hitting Romney and hitting him hard.

Abby Adams on November 29, 2011 at 5:30 PM

… and married. :-(

Punchenko on November 29, 2011 at 5:29 PM

always the catch with hot women

blatantblue on November 29, 2011 at 5:31 PM

But I thought Sheriff Joe Huntsman endorsed Perry today…?

Seven Percent Solution on November 29, 2011 at 5:31 PM

Newt is going to be a disaster for the country. This is from his website on immigration:

If citizens of other nations want to invest and create jobs in America, then we should be making it easier for them to invest, work and potentially gain citizenship through an expanded EB-5 program. The EB-5 program grants permanent residency to overseas investors who create and maintain at least ten American jobs.

The existing EB-5 program, which sets as high as a $1 million minimum investment to be considered for legal residency, is too restrictive and selective. We must expand this program to allow for foreign entrepreneurs who may not have the capital yet, but have the ability to come to the United States and raise enough American capital to form a business.

http://www.newt.org/solutions/immigration

This is essentially citizenship for sale, and will cause our housing prices to skyrocket just like Canada’s due to massive numbers of wealthy Chinese who want to launder their questionably attained money in American real estate.

haner on November 29, 2011 at 5:34 PM

Abby Adams on November 29, 2011 at 5:30 PM

fair ’nuff

blatantblue on November 29, 2011 at 5:35 PM

Mika and Joe are sure pulling for him and just don’t get why we don’t see him as the conservative’s conservative

See ya Ralphie huntsman

cmsinaz on November 29, 2011 at 5:35 PM

Up to 11% in a Northeaster state eh? But is Huntsman peaking too soon?/s How does he poll in Utah?

KW64 on November 29, 2011 at 5:28 PM

New Hampshire Primary is January 10th that’s about 6 weeks out.

Official News for the 2012 New Hampshire Primary, and it has a link with a poll that ask who is going to win the New Hampshire Primary? Who wants to skew the poll for Larry Huntsman?

Dr Evil on November 29, 2011 at 5:35 PM

haner on November 29, 2011 at 5:34 PM

You should get your Huntsman talking-points ready since he is hurting your guy in New Romshire. Tick-tock..

Punchenko on November 29, 2011 at 5:36 PM

Anyone else notice that Igor R. is never present on Vladamir Huntsman threads, but always surfaces on Newt’s…?

… Hhhhhhhhhhhmmmmmmmmmmm.

/

Seven Percent Solution on November 29, 2011 at 5:37 PM

haner on November 29, 2011 at 5:34 PM

For the love of Pete…

Seven Percent Solution on November 29, 2011 at 5:40 PM

Anyone else notice that Igor R. is never present on Vladamir Huntsman threads, but always surfaces on Newt’s…?

… Hhhhhhhhhhhmmmmmmmmmmm.

/

Seven Percent Solution on November 29, 2011 at 5:37 PM

Gee, I don’t know what kind of conclusion you can draw from that. He doesn’t have a Groucho mustache, does he?

SlaveDog on November 29, 2011 at 5:41 PM

Don Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov Huntsman has the gravitas to make it happen.

abobo on November 29, 2011 at 5:42 PM

The sense I get from Newt (and I don’t think I’m alone) is that the big skeletons are already out of the closet and on display because, really, at this point how could they not be?

Who knew about Newt’s ties to Freddie and Fannie until a couple of weeks ago?

Newt’s thinks he’s electable…why?

Has he ever run a national campaign before?

Has he ever run a campaign in a blue state as a Republican? Has his crossover appeal ever been tested?

Why is he considered electable from the House of Reps and Michelle Bachmann is not?

LOL…..no wonder Obama is going so hard on Romney right now, the DNC wants to help facilitate the GOP’s suicide.

Newt is a big fat untested risk to run against Obama. Less than a year ago he was dissing Paul Ryan and now he’s a conservative savior.

sheryl on November 29, 2011 at 5:44 PM

Seven Percent Solution on November 29, 2011 at 5:37 PM

Dammit, you used vladimir first. Kareem Abdul Huntsman is NOT amused.

abobo on November 29, 2011 at 5:44 PM

Huntsman has 11% in flukey, quirky New Hampshire which counts a whopping 4 Electoral Votes out of 540? In fourth place behind Romney, Gingrich, and flukey, quirky RON PAUL?

Two other recent polls from Insider Advantage tell the real Huntsman story: He is listed as less than 1% (due to rounding, that implies less than 0.5%) in both Iowa (Gingrich 28, Romney 12) and South Carolina (Gingrich 38, Romney 15). By the way, Michele Bachmann is at 10% in Iowa, which is a bigger state (6 EVs) than NH. Three cheers for Bachmentum in Iowa!!!

So if Huntsman ran third party, he might draw less than 0.5% of Republicans, or 0.2% of the overall electorate, away from the Republican nominee, much less than Pat Buchanan got in 2000. To paraphrase our clean, articulate Vice President, no big effin’ deal.

Steve Z on November 29, 2011 at 5:45 PM

You should get your Huntsman talking-points ready since he is hurting your guy in New Romshire. Tick-tock..

Punchenko on November 29, 2011 at 5:36 PM

I have no guy. I would support anyone who says they will mandate E-Verify. Period.

Newt was the reason why E-Verify became only a voluntary program and not a mandatory program. He has opposed E-Verify from the beginning. The guy doesn’t represent my interest in keeping America for Americans.

haner on November 29, 2011 at 5:52 PM

MORMON FIGHT!!!!!

… unfortunately, a Mormon fight consist of Romney and Huntsman having a friendly and peaceful conversation about their differences over a

fine cigar cold beer hot coffee walk on the beach.

Lawdawg86 on November 29, 2011 at 5:53 PM

Lawdawg86 on November 29, 2011 at 5:53 PM

Wow, that didnt work out all as planned. Let me try again:

MORMON FIGHT!!!!!

… unfortunately, a Mormon fight consist of Romney and Huntsman having a friendly and peaceful conversation about their differences over a fine cigar cold beer hot coffee walk on the beach.

Lawdawg86 on November 29, 2011 at 5:54 PM

Lawdawg86 on November 29, 2011 at 5:54 PM

Meh, close enough.

Lawdawg86 on November 29, 2011 at 5:55 PM

Well, it is New Hampshire. ‘Nuff said.

Sporty1946 on November 29, 2011 at 5:56 PM

He’s also refusing to flatly rule out a third-party run if he flames out in New Hampshire,

Once again we see the hypocriscy of the RINOs.

The GOP whines & harps about how the Conservatives have to suck it up, hold their noses & vote for whatever chosen milktoast who appeals to the muddling middle but when push comes to shove they think that rule doesn’t apply to them.

katiejane on November 29, 2011 at 5:56 PM

When only three people in the field have any semblance of sanity, that might be a bad sign.

mythicknight on November 29, 2011 at 5:56 PM

secure in the knowledge that he and Huntsman aren’t that different.

Very different.
For one thing, Huntsman did not architect Romneycare. Romneycare is going to be a HUGE liability if Romney gets on the ticket. Hello 2nd term Obama!

balkanmom on November 29, 2011 at 6:01 PM

Once again we see the hypocriscy of the RINOs.

The GOP whines & harps about how the Conservatives have to suck it up, hold their noses & vote for whatever chosen milktoast who appeals to the muddling middle but when push comes to shove they think that rule doesn’t apply to them.

katiejane on November 29, 2011 at 5:56 PM

Nice point.

GaltBlvnAtty on November 29, 2011 at 6:13 PM

Third party bid by Huntsman?

If so, John Huntsman in 2012 = John Anderson in 1980.

In the end, Anderson hurt Carter more than he hurt Reagan.

blogpre on November 29, 2011 at 6:14 PM

Dammit, you used vladimir first. Kareem Abdul Huntsman is NOT amused.

abobo on November 29, 2011 at 5:44 PM

Stillwell Huntsman is all forgiving, except for…

haner on November 29, 2011 at 5:34 PM, and sheryl on November 29, 2011 at 5:44 PM who can’t figure out this isn’t a “Newt” thread.

Seven Percent Solution on November 29, 2011 at 6:20 PM

I think that there’s one thing Huntsman brings to the table that shouldn’t be forgotten. He’s the only one who is guaranteed to win. More and more Romney is looking like Dewey to me, Gingrich is my guy but I dunno how he does in a general, everyone else just gets killed. Huntsman wins in a walk. I’d be shocked if he got less than 55%.

galenrox on November 29, 2011 at 6:48 PM

Everytime he speaks I feel the need to shower.
SouthernGent on November 29, 2011 at 5:09 PM

Try to stay on topic. Even though they have the same position on Global Warming this thread is about Huntsman, not Gingrich. As of now, other than Gingrich, there is no evidence of any GOP contender having his nose in the trough.

Basilsbest on November 29, 2011 at 7:00 PM

Well as far as I know Augustus Hunstman has never cheated on his wife. …

angryed on November 29, 2011 at 5:27 PM

Do you know that for a FACT?

belad on November 29, 2011 at 7:16 PM

Dmitry Medvedev is to Vladimir Putin
As
Huntsman is to Obama

IMHO

mechkiller_k on November 29, 2011 at 7:23 PM

Second look at Obadiah Huntsman?

OhioCoastie on November 29, 2011 at 7:38 PM

His strategy’s always been straightforward: Turn New Hampshire into a two-man race with Romney and then count on the silent “Not Romney” supermajority to sweep him to victory.

There are some fairly obvious problems with that strategy, primarily that the Not Romney crowd would rather have Romney than a committed moderate-liberal member of the Obama administration.

HitNRun on November 29, 2011 at 7:41 PM

haner on November 29, 2011 at 5:34 PM

That’s hardly radical. EB-5 has been around for years. It’s a green card, not citizenship. Citizenship would still require a civics test and an English test along with good moral character and 5-year waiting period.

Greek Fire on November 29, 2011 at 7:58 PM

The sense I get from Newt (and I don’t think I’m alone) is that the big skeletons are already out of the closet and on display because, really, at this point how could they not be? In fact, in an odd way Cain’s difficulties make me more comfortable with Gingrich because at least his peccadilloes are already priced into his stock.

Newt can take the skeletons out and goes dancing with them, that is how much they are already priced into him.

Cain’s implosion helps Newt, yes, and may help get a point or two back to some of the other ‘Not Romney’ candidates as well.

Huntsman? Nice tax proposal, but what is he planning to do about the size, scope and power of the federal government? Its real nice if he wants to make a horserace in NH, but the country doesn’t need another fast nag, but a chainsaw Al, and from what I’ve seen Huntsman is pretty much not that man unless he starts co-opting some of Paul’s domestic policy points. But its a bit late for that.

ajacksonian on November 29, 2011 at 8:04 PM

Newt can take the skeletons out and goes dancing with them, that is how much they are already priced into him.

Silly talk. Newt’s implosion is inevitable. Look at his track record. It’s just a matter of time.

Basilsbest on November 29, 2011 at 9:05 PM

Exciting news for Englebert Hunstmandinck.

Mr. D on November 29, 2011 at 9:43 PM

Hubert Hussein Huntsman knows how to fry rice real nice. He is plural, did you know that?

BL@KBIRD on November 29, 2011 at 10:58 PM

His commercials here in NH, running in pretty heavy rotation, portray him as an outsider and conservative candidate. I assume that those 11% of people will peel away from him once they learn more about him.

livefreerdie on November 29, 2011 at 5:10 PM

I dunno, Vitgeft Huntsman’s political advertising doesn’t make a very strong case for his presidential gravitas:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPbIiLrNGZo

ebrown2 on November 29, 2011 at 11:14 PM

Seriously, you “have no idea” why voters view Romney as more qualified than Huntsman? What color is the sky in your world?

Huntsman winning statewide in Utah as a Republican is NOT the same thing as Mitt winning in Massachusetts. But call that a wash, two terms small red = one term big blue.

Salt Lake City Olympics. They were virtually bankrupt and so far behind construction schedule that it was in doubt whether the Games could be held or not. Romney comes in and not only salvages the operation and puts on a successful Games, but makes them profitable.

Then take the fact Romney has a record of turning around failing companies and making them profitable again, to the tune of earning himself a quarter-billion dollars as his commission on the deals.

So that’s a couple things on Romney’s resume that Huntsman hasn’t done, but Huntsman has done something Romney hasn’t, too. Romney never wrote notes to Obama and Bill Clinton offering to lick their boots.

Do I exaggerate? Read what Huntsman wrote them, and decide for yourself.

Adjoran on November 30, 2011 at 1:07 AM