A new draft-Palin ad to run in Iowa next week

Is it too late for Sarah Palin to enter the Republican presidential nomination sweepstakes?  Conservatives4Palin hope not, and they plan to run an ad in Iowa aimed at convincing caucus-goers to draft her into the race:

Your contributions have made it possible for us to run the Palin reconsider television ad next week in the Sioux City, Iowa market. Thanks to everyone who chipped in to make it possible.

You’ll be able to see the ad that will be shown on televisions on KCAU-TV across the Sioux City, Iowa market on this blog and on youtube when it goes up next week. If you have any ideas on how to get this story more attention, let us know and feel free to push it yourself to people who may be interested. The target date for this ad going up is now November 29th as the Thanksgiving holidays pushed our initial target date of November 28th back. At the very latest, we expect to get it up on the Sioux City market on the 30th.

The Hill reminds its readers that Palin had plenty of time to jump into the race:

In October, Palin announced that she would not run for the party’s nomination. “You don’t need an office or a title to make a difference,” she said in a YouTube video.  Palin had weighed a presidential bid for months and was the subject of much media speculation. …

[W]ith the Hawkeye State’s caucuses on Jan 3, the group has little time to convince Palin to reconsider her decision and enter the race.

Isn’t it too late to get in the race?  Not in Iowa, or in other caucus states like Nevada.  The state parties run those events, and they can add a name to the ballot at any time — or caucus-goers can write in their favored candidates if they like.

However, Palin faces a bigger problem outside of Iowa.  Most of the early contests are not caucuses, but primaries — and those states do have filing deadlines, which have all passed.  Palin wouldn’t have contended in New Hampshire anyway, but can any candidate fail to win South Carolina, Florida, and Michigan and still expect to seriously contend for the nomination? Filing deadlines for all of these states have already passed.

Besides, Palin didn’t have an organization built in Iowa or anywhere else when she demurred on a run in the first place, and she certainly doesn’t have any now.  She would have to find donors to fund those organizations, including some who shifted their money after it became clear that Palin wasn’t serious about running in this cycle.  Palin might find it very difficult to get those donors to take her bid seriously, even if she managed a win in Iowa, given the difficulty of running from behind after those early primaries.

A late Palin entry would probably benefit Mitt Romney most.  The buzz of her entry might very well hand her Iowa, which would kneecap Romney’s competitors heading into South Carolina and Florida, where she couldn’t compete.  If Romney swept through South Carolina, Michigan, and Florida (and perhaps the Nevada caucus as well), he’d be well on his way to inevitability.  Palin’s smart enough to know all of this, so despite the heartfelt efforts of C4P, her next announcement will almost certainly be an endorsement and not a declaration of candidacy.

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