CNN poll: Gingrich 24, Romney 20, Cain 17, Perry 11

posted at 6:38 pm on November 21, 2011 by Allahpundit

No surprise in the topline numbers but lots of little surprises in the details. For instance, after dropping from 25 percent last month to 14 percent last week, Cain’s actually bounced back to 17 percent. A few voters might be giving him the benefit of the doubt now that no more women have come forward to accuse him of harassment. Another surprise: From mid-October to mid-November, the number of voters who said they’d definitely support one candidate versus those who might change their minds stood perfectly even at 31/61. This week, however, the spread jumped to 27/67. Proof, perhaps, that Gingrich really is starting to soften up other candidates’ support? Perry’s numbers have now declined for five straight polls and, at 20 percent, this is Romney’s poorest showing since September, so … maybe, yeah.

The two most fascinating Newt numbers? Behold:

He’s now the tea-party favorite with a double-digit lead over his closest competitor, Cain. Being the momentarily anointed Not Romney will do that for you, I guess, even if you’ve spent decades as a Beltway insider. (Note that Perry, who embraced the tea-party movement early on, is now fifth in this demographic.) And he’s a runaway winner in the 65 and over group, which bodes well for the general election if he’s the nominee but which I’m at a loss to fully explain. Is it simply that he’s the only candidate up there (besides Paul) who belongs to that age group? Is it gratitude for his coolness to Paul Ryan’s Medicare plan early on? Is it the unusual amount of time he’s spent on the trail talking about Alzheimer’s research? Worth keeping an eye on this number going forward as it could matter a lot in explaining any Newt upsets in the primaries.

Gingrich is also the candidate whom voters are most enthusiastic about, even though he’s a distant fourth in likability. How to explain that disparity? Could be this:

So deep are doubts about Perry that he now trails even Cain in this category despite the latter’s unending gaffe parade.

Here’s the number that probably decides the nomination, though:

That’s a nice bounce for Gingrich, but if those numbers hold — and there’s reason to think they will as the media starts to revisit his baggage — a lot of Republican undecideds in Iowa (yes, Iowa!) who desperately want to beat Obama will bite the bullet on Mitt. Exit quotation: “The others may not quite be toast. But they’re certainly in the toaster, the dial is turned up to nine, and there is smoke coming out.”

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Alrighty. You obviously missed my point.

terryannonline on November 21, 2011 at 9:28 PM

What was the point Sparky?

idesign on November 21, 2011 at 9:30 PM

What rhetoric would that be?

idesign on November 21, 2011 at 9:27 PM

The rhetoric was the cross hairs ad. That’s what the media, unfairly or not, was criticizing. Which is their right. She should probably have let the absurdity speak for itself. Which is basically what Newt was saying. But she responded like a human being would and that doesn’t make her any less formidable. Which is exactly what Newt was also saying. If you don’t get it, you just don’t get it. It happens.

mike_NC9 on November 21, 2011 at 9:32 PM

In other words, aslans girl was wrong. Whether or not he defended her is immaterial. I don’t recall that being Newt’s job, or anyone elses for that matter.

xblade on November 21, 2011 at 8:41 PM

Nope, it was an attack. But, just hypothetically, let’s say that Newt’s only sin was “not defending her”: the MSM attack on Palin was also an attack on the Tea Party and conservatives in general , remember “we” were all called murderers by the MSM. I expect a POTUS to defend Americans. In fact, the only real job of a POTUS is DEFENSE! Since Newt wants to run as a GOP candidate, he should’ve been defending the very party he wishes to represent. He did not.

Aslans Girl on November 21, 2011 at 9:32 PM

Newt never agreed that Palin was guilty of murder.

mike_NC9 on November 21, 2011 at 9:28 PM

Wow, that was big of him…LOL

idesign on November 21, 2011 at 9:32 PM

Are you really that lost? Newt was actually talking about the blood libel controversy. Not the cross hairs ad.
And even then, Newt never agreed that Palin was guilty of murder. You lie. Now most people know that about you too.

mike_NC9 on November 21, 2011 at 9:28 PM

I think you’re “lost” and I doubt you are much of a supporter of Palin’s. It matters not a whit whether Newt was talking about Palin’s use of “blood libel” (one of the other rare occasions I agreed with Palin) or her use of cross-hairs: he was joining the MSM in attacking Palin. That whole week, the MSM had said that the shooting was Palin’s fault. And Newt fell for it. I did not lie. Everyone at the time saw it the same way I did and were furious with Newt over his actions.

Aslans Girl on November 21, 2011 at 9:36 PM

idesign on November 21, 2011 at 9:32 PM

You and girl fight like libs. But that’s ok, you probably know the truth as much as any of us like they do. But can’t ever admit being wrong.

mike_NC9 on November 21, 2011 at 9:36 PM

The rhetoric was the cross hairs ad. That’s what the media, unfairly or not, was criticizing. Which is their right. She should probably have let the absurdity speak for itself. Which is basically what Newt was saying. But she responded like a human being would and that doesn’t make her any less formidable. Which is exactly what Newt was also saying. If you don’t get it, you just don’t get it. It happens.

mike_NC9 on November 21, 2011 at 9:32 PM

It wasn’t an ad…LOL

It was a map, showing what candidates Palin would challenge, the same type of map used by Republicans and democrats for years. When Palin was accused of being complicit for murder, Newt was silent, but attacked her when she defended herself. Not his finest hour

idesign on November 21, 2011 at 9:39 PM

idesign on November 21, 2011 at 9:39 PM

Yep.

Aslans Girl on November 21, 2011 at 9:40 PM

idesign on November 21, 2011 at 9:39 PM

I love Sarah, but I agree with Newt on this one. What did Rick Perry say about it. Did anyone ask him?

mike_NC9 on November 21, 2011 at 9:58 PM

It wasn’t an ad…LOL

It was a map.

idesign on November 21, 2011 at 9:39 PM

A map? Are you implying that Sarah actually is complicit? By publishing a map with targets as opposed to an ad with targets?

mike_NC9 on November 21, 2011 at 10:06 PM

mike_NC9 on November 21, 2011 at 9:58 PM

He was busy governing TX; he’s never been a pundit, unlike Newt who likes to stick his foot in his mouth on a regular basis. That’s the danger of being a pundit — pundits speak on every issue (making a long paper-trail) and if they’re like Newt, they’re wrong on important issues more often than is comfortable.

Aslans Girl on November 21, 2011 at 10:06 PM

A map? Are you implying that Sarah actually is complicit? By publishing a map with targets as opposed to an ad with targets?

mike_NC9 on November 21, 2011 at 10:06 PM

They weren’t targets Sparky, they were surveyor’s marks.

For someone who claims to support Palin, you sure as hell don’t know much…LOL

idesign on November 21, 2011 at 10:14 PM

Aslans Girl on November 21, 2011 at 10:06 PM

Texans must really like Perry as governor because they sure as hell don’t seem to support him for president. Is Gingrich leading there yet?

mike_NC9 on November 21, 2011 at 10:15 PM

Texans must really like Perry as governor because they sure as hell don’t seem to support him for president. Is Gingrich leading there yet?

mike_NC9 on November 21, 2011 at 10:15 PM

Why do you attack fellow candidates?

idesign on November 21, 2011 at 10:18 PM

girl, here’s how you back up a statement. You should try it once in a while.

Palin/Newt 2012

mike_NC9 on November 5, 2009 at 10:43 PM

Why do you attack fellow candidates?

idesign on November 21, 2011 at 10:18 PM

OMG, now I know you’re a liberal plant. LOL

mike_NC9 on November 21, 2011 at 10:33 PM

OMG, now I know you’re a liberal plant. LOL

mike_NC9 on November 21, 2011 at 10:33 PM

Yea right…

idesign on November 21, 2011 at 10:38 PM

Idesign, why don’t you ask asians girl the same question? Besides, show me a Texas poll where Rick Perry is leading? I gave up looking.

mike_NC9 on November 21, 2011 at 10:39 PM

Idesign, why don’t you ask asians girl the same question? Besides, show me a Texas poll where Rick Perry is leading? I gave up looking.

mike_NC9 on November 21, 2011 at 10:39 PM

Polls are for strippers and cross country skiers.

idesign on November 21, 2011 at 10:44 PM

Polls are for strippers and cross country skiers.

idesign on November 21, 2011 at 10:44 PM

indeed. maxima mea culpa

mike_NC9 on November 21, 2011 at 10:47 PM

indeed. maxima mea culpa

mike_NC9 on November 21, 2011 at 10:47 PM

Thanks…

idesign on November 21, 2011 at 11:02 PM

Prediction: Palin endorses Perry shortly before Iowa caucuses.

jaschenb74 on November 22, 2011 at 8:59 AM

The Gingrich lead here highlights a very important weakness in the Romney strategy …

Moderates aren’t going to be enough.

I suspect that Santorum, Bachmann, Huntsman, perhaps even Cain will be gone soon after Iowa.

The Conservative field will get whittled down quick.

And, we’re already seeing that one Conservative candidate can get more support than Romney.

Romney will have to shift strategies and move to the right.

HondaV65 on November 22, 2011 at 2:05 PM

Anyone who has lessened their support for Cain is abetting the LeftSM’s effort to pick the GOP nominee and therefore has no standing in the debate over our nominee. Do you really want another McCain?
The only two candidates who will restore the U.S. of A. to its intended form and its once-great (pre-1960s) status as magnanimous leader of the free world are Bachmann and Cain.

rocksandbroncs on November 22, 2011 at 3:20 PM

Polls are for strippers and cross country skiers.

idesign on November 21, 2011 at 10:44 PM

Except when it came to the unelectable Palin. The polls showed her unelectability for 3 years. It was proven that the Palin supporters were no smarter than a stripper poll. And it appears that as many of them still haven’t moved on from being 8uttbroke about it, the stripper poll has more sense than them also.

rotflmmfao!

csdeven on November 22, 2011 at 4:08 PM

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