The uselessness of NBC’s new poll release
posted at 9:15 am on November 14, 2011 by Ed Morrissey
The headline is a grabber: “GOP support for Perry plummets after debate flub.” The second takeaway from the latest NBC poll release also sounds explosive:
After his flub at a Republican debate on Wednesday, Texas Gov. Rick Perry has seen his support plummet among GOP primary voters, according to a re-contact of Republicans surveyed in this month’s NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.
And after another charge of sexual harassment this week, ex-businessman Herman Cain’s support has stagnated or slightly declined.
“If this was not a good week for Herman Cain, it was an absolutely horrendous week for Rick Perry,” said Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this re-survey.
The beneficiaries: “Mitt Romney has slightly improved his position, while Newt Gingrich is the candidate who has gained most from the drops from the Perry and Cain camps,” Hart added.
Hey, all of those things might be true … but you can’t make that assumption from the NBC poll. In fact, you can’t make any assumption from a national poll taken among 102 respondents. Yes, it’s true, the new data comes from a survey of 102 people – who had previously taken part in the prior NBC national poll of likely Republican primary voters.
How many people participated in the original poll? Only 248, which itself is a highly weak sample size for a national poll. That would be a weak sample in some states, let alone nationally. Going back and cherry-picking less than half of a substandard polling sample in order to draw national conclusions about the direction of a presidential race — and presenting the results as a poll rather than an anecdotally-sourced story — amounts to polling malpractice. How did this subsample get chosen for “recontact” anyway? Did NBC go back and “recontact” respondents who were already inclined towards opposition to either Perry or Cain in the first poll?
And just who were these 102 Republican primary voters? Only 60 of them identify as Republicans at all. Another 22 are independents who lean Republican. Three of them are Democrats, and another five independents who lean Democratic, with three more classifying themselves as “other” and another respondent who has no idea what his/her affiliation is.
This poll makes an impression, all right, but I’m pretty sure it’s not the impression NBC intended.
Blowback
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Cain has refused to fired his serial-liar campaign ‘manager’. IHis dropping in the polls is quite deserved.
As far as my guy goes-Perry probably won’t be able to bounce back
I’m a realist. He most likely won’t be the nominee-but I’ll continue to support him until he drops out.
annoyinglittletwerp on November 14, 2011 at 9:21 AM
Huh? Since when does a poll of Republican voters use a small sample that’s only 59% Republican?
Doughboy on November 14, 2011 at 9:22 AM
Clearly, this is proof that any other polls that will show the same results are worthless.
csdeven on November 14, 2011 at 9:23 AM
I said this yesterday without knowing all the extra details Ed is telling us:
Turns out I was right.
Can we now disregard the polls as gospel until two to three weeks before voting begins? Because at that stage, the polling organizations start to shift from spin and advocacy into being professional organizations trying to save face.
TheRightMan on November 14, 2011 at 9:23 AM
The uselessness of NBC’s new poll release…
Akzed on November 14, 2011 at 9:23 AM
“Uselessness“?
bofh on November 14, 2011 at 9:24 AM
Making stuff up.
forest on November 14, 2011 at 9:24 AM
They didn’t poll me. I would have told them that Perry with Alzheimer’s beats Obama on his best day. Same with Cain or Newt.
Extrafishy on November 14, 2011 at 9:25 AM
I really like Perry and think he would be great, however, I cringe at the thought of him debating Obama.
Now if Gingrich were to be debating Obama, I would PAY to see that!
NJ Red on November 14, 2011 at 9:25 AM
Take it to the bank!
-msdnc talking heads
cmsinaz on November 14, 2011 at 9:26 AM
I get a greater number of responses from polling our local Tea Party!
michaelo on November 14, 2011 at 9:26 AM
The LSM is are a desperate bunch aren’t they?
Anybody else hear of Allred popping up today with another press conference? UGH – seriously just go away.
gophergirl on November 14, 2011 at 9:27 AM
I agree. As someone who has managed marketing research and polling for a large national market research company I am just amazed at how much the national media mis-uses polls.
Clearly they have an agenda they are trying to sell. And this included Foxnews who I have really given up upon now because they have basically transformed from what was an attempt to be fair and balanced into just another ABC News et al… with inaccurate comments, foolish assumptions, and except for Hannity and a few others, just another PR agency for Obama and the DC elites
It is quite clear that the MSM, which now includes FNC, have no education required for their talking heads about polling, and they have no defined standards about using polls
georgealbert on November 14, 2011 at 9:29 AM
“It’s only make believe…” -Conway Twitty.
Akzed on November 14, 2011 at 9:30 AM
NJ Red on November 14, 2011 at 9:25 AM
I agree.
annoyinglittletwerp on November 14, 2011 at 9:31 AM
Glenn Beck just said NBC has hired Chelsea Clinton as a news correspondent.
*barf*
petefrt on November 14, 2011 at 9:31 AM
Being a political realist sometimes means a recognition that stranger things have happened in primary politics.
I personally see Perry as being in the best position he could hope to be before the primaries begin. Fighting as an underdog is sometimes a blessing to one’s campaign.
If Perry was polling at the levels of Gingrich or Cain, trust me – he would have been set upon with such viciousness by the media/Dems/GOP Establishment that I doubt he could have won anything. Currently, the steady hate pieces that were being churned by Jennifer Rubin and other so-called conservative commentators appear to have ceased or slowed down.
Perry is fighting hard and has a massive ground operation in Iowa and SC especially.
I believe with time many will come to terms with his debate flaws and other weaknesses and accept him the way Romney has been accepted by his 25%. But Perry’s would definitely be higher than 25%.
:)
TheRightMan on November 14, 2011 at 9:32 AM
I think Perry would make the best President of all the candidates hands down. Unfortunately he’s not the best “candidate” if that makes sense.
I wish you could meld Gingrich and Perry into one person.
gophergirl on November 14, 2011 at 9:34 AM
That’s the first I’ve heard of this. Any word on what she’s gonna say? I saw her appear sans Beotch-lik on Hannity last week and she was unimpressive to say the least. And that was with a dumb#$%& like Hannity interrogating her.
Doughboy on November 14, 2011 at 9:34 AM
wow – almost as scientific as a Luntz focus group… astonishing
gatorboy on November 14, 2011 at 9:35 AM
Bwahahahahaha!!!!
csdeven on November 14, 2011 at 9:35 AM
Didn’t David Letterman knock her up during the 7th inning stretch of a Yankees game or something?
Akzed on November 14, 2011 at 9:35 AM
The left has given up even attempting to be serious now.
I do expect a story this PM, though, about another study showing Republicans being anti-science.
Dusty on November 14, 2011 at 9:35 AM
[[fergot to paste this in...]]
Akzed on November 14, 2011 at 9:36 AM
Hahahaha!!!! Perry already was polling higher and the medias reporting on his unforced errors and ridiculous debate performances has put him where he is at today. And they didn’t have to make it up!
“Duuuuuh….what was that third agency? Ooooops!”
csdeven on November 14, 2011 at 9:38 AM
Apparently it’s the boyfriend that signed one of the affidavits. I’ve only seen it on one, non political site so I was wondering if it was making the rounds.
gophergirl on November 14, 2011 at 9:39 AM
We have that now. It’s Romney.
csdeven on November 14, 2011 at 9:39 AM
THREE CHEERS!!! Fantastic summation…please apply liberally to almost every poll!!!
Thanks!!!
winston on November 14, 2011 at 9:42 AM
Sorry – not even close IMO
gophergirl on November 14, 2011 at 9:43 AM
RCP average has Perry at 10.2%
Apparently his gaffe and the aftermath have proven to have helped him.
Go figure!
ArmyAunt on November 14, 2011 at 9:44 AM
And in line with what I said yesterday, the next few polls did prove me right.
Please see RCP for the full poll results. Here is a summary:
USA Today/Gallup (11/2 – 11/6)
Romney – 21
Cain – 21
Gingrich – 12
Perry – 11
Politico/GWU/Battleground (11/6 – 11/9)
Romney – 25
Cain – 27
Gingrich – 14
Perry – 14
CBS News (11/6 – 11/10)
Romney – 15
Cain – 18
Gingrich – 15
Perry – 8
McClatchy/Marist (11/8 – 11/10)
Romney – 23
Cain – 17
Gingrich – 19
Perry – 8
The above shows that Perry is still holding to his base support (8-12%). Cain appears to have lost his soft support (~5%)to Gingrich, but is still holding on to his base support (8-10%) and the ‘bitter Palinistas’ (10-12%), again as I predicted in an earlier thread.
TheRightMan on November 14, 2011 at 9:47 AM
I took a “survey”. It was unanimous, NBC is populated by liberal cretins. All 2 people were in agreement on this.
GarandFan on November 14, 2011 at 9:48 AM
Nothing But Crap
faraway on November 14, 2011 at 9:59 AM
That depends on who the candidate is.
conservative pilgrim on November 14, 2011 at 10:14 AM
This reminds me of a joke that circulated during the Clinton years:
Q: What do you get when you cross a corrupt politician with a crooked lawyer?
A: Chelsea Clinton
Hey, this is MILD compared to some of the stuff that people have said about Sarah Palin and her family.
UltimateBob on November 14, 2011 at 10:18 AM
I read she’s having a press conference in Shreveport, LA, this afternoon. This new witness is Bialek’s ex-boyfriend, a pediatrician, and supposedly the boyfriend Bialek told about Cain’s inappropriate sexual behavior. Maybe they’re trying to re-establish Bialek’s credibility (not that she ever had any) since the current fiance admitted he’s not engaged to Bialek and that they haven’t been engaged since last winter, when she moved out with her son.
GrannySunni on November 14, 2011 at 10:27 AM
What’s wrong with that? csdeven would never think that Chelsea being hired was anything but that Chelsea was accomplished and had nothing to do with her father being president…powerful political people never help their children…
Didn’t Chelsea leave her $400,000 “consulting” job, for this? It must be nice.
right2bright on November 14, 2011 at 10:28 AM
I bet this poll was repeated on all the cable news networks this morning without any explanation or break down.
It really looks like it is coming down to the American citizen vs the corrupt media. Not to be confused with a Free Press. Who knows what happened to the Free Press. All we have today is yellow journalism masquerading as news disseminators. We have infotainment and celbutards. The only standard they have applied was to get rid of Beck and Olbermann, and the only reason for that was legal liability. After Gabby Giffords was shot, they were afraid they left themselves exposed for legal liability, if at some point some whacko acted on something one of them said on air and it could be proven in court. Bad PR.
Dr Evil on November 14, 2011 at 10:40 AM
True true…the polls will get better as their credibility gets closer to the actual vote
It is fun though to battle over whose candidate is better than another’s candidate and it helps HA with all the postings! :o)
g2825m on November 14, 2011 at 10:47 AM
If only the rest of the 99% could convert their useless History Degrees into a $400,000 per year “consulting” gig, then network “journalism.”
MNHawk on November 14, 2011 at 10:47 AM
Breaking news….
Romney throws out trial balloon of Palin as VP…
g2825m on November 14, 2011 at 10:49 AM
That would make a great blog post what are the legitimate news outlets American’s can read, and view today without the tabloid slant? The WSJ? I honestly wish we had publications, and at least one network that could set the standard of objectivity, and just “report” and stop spinning the freakin news.
It would make a great poll question, name the top newspapers, and magazines, and have people rate them on a trust worthy scale. I would include some of the British papers, because I have had to read British papers for their reporting of what goes on inside our country, when our own “media” won’t. As for magazines Time and Newsweek’s brand has been tarnished, they used to be a kind of standard. What magazine with any heft is left today?
Dr Evil on November 14, 2011 at 10:50 AM
Okay…maybe not.
Just wanted to see what the reaction would be. ;o)
g2825m on November 14, 2011 at 10:51 AM
Newt…RINO
Romney…RINO
Perry…Illegal alien tuition breaks
Romney…I can’t have illegals!
Yep, combine Newt and Perry and you get Romney.
csdeven on November 14, 2011 at 10:57 AM
All you have to do is provide the proof that Bubba got her the job.
csdeven on November 14, 2011 at 10:58 AM
Chelsea is getting divirced I undersatnd. Apparently her husband recently got Lasik surgery…
Hard Right on November 14, 2011 at 11:02 AM
funny but mean…haha
unless you meant it that he finally realized who his in-laws were!
g2825m on November 14, 2011 at 11:07 AM
The methodology of this poll and its conclusions would receive an F in any Stats 101 course.
RadClown on November 14, 2011 at 11:20 AM
The 102 sample size is a joke just as the carnival, “gotcha” atmosphere of the innumerable Lefty-moderated MSM debates are. This has resulted in the internicine, circular firing-squad among GOP voters WITHOUT ONE PRIMARY VOTE BEING CAST.
From what I can remember of the Dem debates back in 2008 (at least those that I could stomach watching), they were a love-fest of slow-pitch softball lobs — and still it required Iowa caucus chicanery from The Immense Bowel Movement’s campaign to jilt Hillary. (Go read the commentary on this as to why HillBuzz.com’s progenitor switched his political views.)
So they will probably have picked our nominee for us and that person goes into the general election “pre-tenderized” with all of his or her warts exposed for the MSM to prey upon.
(Dreadful mixed metaphor for a Monday morning; sorry.)
The War Planner on November 14, 2011 at 11:24 AM
This is not polling this is propaganda…
d1carter on November 14, 2011 at 11:25 AM
..I would not were I he, lest he end up crow bait at Fort Marcy Park.
The War Planner on November 14, 2011 at 11:27 AM
The in-laws are less corrupt than his own old man, at least measured by years served in prison.
Gaia I hope these two don’t procreate. A lot of corruption genes going into whatever these two spawn.
MNHawk on November 14, 2011 at 11:28 AM
Soon they’ll just be polling 50 members of NBC’s overnight office cleaning crew.
Tim_CA on November 14, 2011 at 11:31 AM
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAA!
Oh, crap, now I can’t breathe, that was a good one!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Sekhmet on November 14, 2011 at 12:06 PM
A 102 size sample would be small for a High School class presidential election, much less a national survey. What’s their margin of error? 15 percent? 20 percent? How can you judge what is or isn’t a “slight” decline when your results range from a + 15 percent to a – 15 percent? “Hermain Cain went from a 25 percent support level last week to somewhere between a 10 percent support level and a 40 percent support level. Wow, was that a bad week!” This result says something about their abilities as pollsters but it also says something about their abilities as journalists.
Fred 2 on November 14, 2011 at 12:21 PM
Polls won’t mean anything until they are timed to actually predict election results. Today there’s no “real world” check on the polls, so pollsters and the media can just sling numbers around to satisfy themselves. When an election will prove your poll wrong, suddenly the polls start being conducted properly.
J.E. Dyer on November 14, 2011 at 12:21 PM
Yep, the knowledge and intelligence of Perry, and sparkling charm and personality of Gingrich.
Siddhartha Vicious on November 14, 2011 at 12:43 PM
Anyone who has taken statistics knows that to generate statistically significant results and obtain a normal “bell curve” knows that there needs to be at least 30 respondents selected from a RANDOM sample.
With NBC extrapolating results from a NON-random sample of only 60-something Republicans and extrapolated to form conclusions about a voting population in the multiple tens if not hundreds of millions, it reminds me of the old saw:
There are lies, da*n lies, and STATISTICS.
This “poll” clearly falls into that latter third category.
Shirotayama on November 14, 2011 at 12:48 PM
There’s room for crow bait at Ft. Marcy Park???
;-)
Shirotayama on November 14, 2011 at 12:51 PM
Romney’s 2 people?
No wonder he flip-flops so often, it must be hard to make up your mind when there are two of them.
DrAllecon on November 14, 2011 at 1:18 PM
Yeah, Real Clear Politics didn’t even let this one in; they’ve treated it like a dumb Zogby poll or that online Reuters one. It’s just not legit.
-Aslan’s Girl
Aslans Girl on November 14, 2011 at 5:21 PM
Hard to get people to participate in your poll when your viewing audience is half of the sample size.
chickasaw42 on November 14, 2011 at 5:23 PM