Gingrich in PPP poll lead, two points back of Romney in CNN poll

posted at 1:20 pm on November 14, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

The Newt Gingrich surge continues apace in two national polls released this afternoon.  Democratic pollster PPP shows Gingrich ahead of Herman Cain by three points and Mitt Romney by seven, a gain of 13 points for the former Speaker in a month:

Newt Gingrich has taken the lead in PPP’s national polling.  He’s at 28% to 25% for Herman Cain and 18% for Mitt Romney.  The rest of the Republican field is increasingly looking like a bunch of also rans: Rick Perry is at 6%, Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 3%, and Gary Johnson and Rick Santorum each at 1%.

Compared to a month ago Gingrich is up 13 points, while Cain has dropped by 5 points and Romney has gone down by 4.  Although a fair amount of skepticism remains about the recent allegations against Cain there is no doubt they are taking a toll on his image- his net favorability is down 25 points over the last month from +51 (66/15) to only +26 (57/31). What is perhaps a little more surprising is that Romney’s favorability is at a 6 month low in our polling too with only 48% of voters seeing him favorably to 39% with a negative opinion.

Gingrich’s lead caps an amazing comeback he’s made over the last 5 months.  In June his favorability nationally with Republican voters plummeted all the way to 36/49. Now he’s at 68/23, representing a 58 point improvement in his spread since then. As recently as August Gingrich was mired in single digits at 7%, and even in September he was at just 10%.  He’s climbed 18 points in less than 2 months.

There’s reason to think that if Cain continues to fade, Gingrich will continue to gain.  Among Cain’s supporters 73% have a favorable opinion of Gingrich to only 21% with a negative one. That compares to a 33/55 spread for Romney with Cain voters and a 32/53 one for Perry.  They like Gingrich a whole lot more than they do the other serious candidates in the race.

In the PPP poll, no one else even comes close.  Fourth place goes to Rick Perry with just 6%, one point ahead of Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann.  Gingrich’s favorability has shot upward dramatically, with a 68/23 favorable rating.  That increases to 81/14 among self-described Tea Party voters, while dipping into negative territory among liberals and moderates.  Right now Gingrich gets better ratings among women (67/21) than Michele Bachmann (42/36), Herman Cain (52/33), and Mitt Romney (49/36).   He also earns 60%+ in every age category, beating Romney in every age demo.

CNN’s poll released today shows a different result, but with Gingrich still surging into a virtual tie with Romney:

A new national survey of Republicans indicates that it’s basically all tied up between Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich in the race for the GOP presidential nomination, with Gingrich on the rise and businessman Herman Cain falling due to the sexual harassment allegations he’s been facing the past two weeks.

According to a CNN/ORC International Poll released Monday, 24% of Republicans and independents who lean towards the GOP say Romney is their most likely choice for their party’s presidential nominee with Gingrich at 22%. Romney’s two-point advantage is well within the survey’s sampling error.

Interestingly, the sample sizes are almost identical in both polls, as was the polling period.   Only Romney has a positive favorability rating in the CNN poll among all voters and not just Republicans (39/35), but Newt comes in second at 36/39.   That’s an improvement on Gingrich’s numbers since officially kicking off his campaign.    Among Republicans only, Gingrich comes in first at 61/21, with Romney dropping back to 55/27 — similar, if not exactly equal, to PPP’s results.

The CNN poll pits the GOP candidates head to head against Obama in their larger sample of registered voters.  This comes up favoring Romney, who beats Obama among RVs 51/47.  Gingrich comes up significantly short at 53/45, as does Herman Cain at 53/43, but the poll doesn’t disclose the D/R/I of the overall sample, either.  Considering that out of 925 registered voters only 480 were Republicans and GOP-leaning independents, I’d guess that the sample might tend to skew a little to the Democrats.

It looks like Gingrich has his opening.  Can he take advantage of it?  We’ll see now that the other candidates have an incentive to go after him — but Gingrich has played very graciously with everyone else in this race, and going negative on Newt might have a high risk of backfire.

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Gingrich/Cain.

Could you live with that?

Knucklehead on November 14, 2011 at 3:51 PM

I could. :-)

Punchenko on November 14, 2011 at 3:52 PM

g2825m on November 14, 2011 at 3:51 PM

Yeah I give up, theres really no point anyway.

nswider on November 14, 2011 at 3:54 PM

I could. :-)

Punchenko on November 14, 2011 at 3:52 PM

Well now we’re getting somewhere :)

Knucklehead on November 14, 2011 at 3:55 PM

“stenwin its my opinion I don’t have to prove anything to you or anyone else, you don’t have to agree, now you can kiss my A$$.

G. on November 14, 2011 at 3:29 PM”

Kissing your ass may be deemed sexual harrassment and therefor sir you have no crediblity. You and Hermain Cain should be both sent to the Gulag!

As for Newt, man the guy has got chops and brilliance when it comes to policy. He just sometimes loses his backbone in the typical GOP way. If he gets the nomination, he will win it! He just has to hope the weak willed types types who latched on to the Cain smear, won’t wet their pants when the MSM sh*t storm comes raining down on him. I swear if we were ever in battle I would put half the people in the blogs up front as arrow bait!

Africanus on November 14, 2011 at 3:57 PM

Theres no point in debating with you because your tactic is to present facts selectively as a way to support your argument without the larger context. Which is exactly, if were talking about who uses DNC talking points, what the DNC does.

nswider on November 14, 2011 at 3:44 PM

You argue that the “rich” (defined by Romney the same way Obama defines them) can “afford to pay” the taxes. That is not a principled stand, it is a class warfare stand.

Assign motive to me all you want, it doesn’t change the facts.

Review the tax policy initiatives from the candidates:

http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxtopics/Summary-of-Tax-Proposals-of-2012-GOP-Candidates.cfm

Huntsman is more aggressive!

While Herman Cain wants to replace the entire federal tax code with his 9-9-9 consumption tax and Rick Perry favors a massive tax cut, Romney would do little more than tinker around the edges of the current law. In short, he seems pretty happy with the individual tax code while he supports more business tax cuts.

Are you satisfied with the individual tax codes? Do you believe $200K/year makes one “rich” and that you should pay higher capital gains tax rates?

mankai on November 14, 2011 at 3:58 PM

I could. :-)

Punchenko on November 14, 2011 at 3:52 PM

I couldn’t-but I’d vote for it if the only other choice was Zero.
Newt can do better for veep than Cain.

annoyinglittletwerp on November 14, 2011 at 4:04 PM

g2825m,

I’m from Michigan, everyone I talk to says that they like Romney because of his dad, but that Newt is their second choice because Christie and Ryan both didn’t run.

cpaulus on November 14, 2011 at 4:05 PM

nswider and I have presented FACTUAL statements on here to many of you and yet you cannot even concede those points.

Good nite all!

g2825m on November 14, 2011 at 3:51 PM

No you haven’t!

but I believe the female (who vote in larger numbers than men) and the Indies will not vote for Gingrich they’ll either vote Obama or not come out. Romney (despite what some here believe) will bring the ticket home for us.

g2825m on November 14, 2011 at 2:57 PM
Right now Gingrich gets better ratings among women (67/21) than Michele Bachmann (42/36), Herman Cain (52/33), and Mitt Romney (49/36). He also earns 60%+ in every age category, beating Romney in every age demo.

Vince on November 14, 2011 at 4:06 PM

I couldn’t-but I’d vote for it if the only other choice was Zero.
Newt can do better for veep than Cain.

annoyinglittletwerp on November 14, 2011 at 4:04 PM

Quit baiting Knucklehead!

Vince on November 14, 2011 at 4:08 PM

I couldn’t-but I’d vote for it if the only other choice was Zero.
Newt can do better for veep than Cain.

annoyinglittletwerp on November 14, 2011 at 4:04 PM

I know Ryan’s name has been floated around a bit. Rubio said he was out, and I don’t know if Perry would be interested in the second slot.

Punchenko on November 14, 2011 at 4:09 PM

Heh, how long before the DNC and LSM think back to 1994 and the Gingrich-orphanage controversy and bring that up to knock off our newest frontrunner?

I can’t believe they’d pass that up…

Dr. ZhivBlago on November 14, 2011 at 4:09 PM

Vince on November 14, 2011 at 4:08 PM

Me?
Bait someone?
Surely you must be joking.

annoyinglittletwerp on November 14, 2011 at 4:14 PM

If you’d have asked me a few months ago there would have been no chance. Now, I think I might be able to support Newt. Must be the politics equivalent of beer goggles at last call.

ElectricPhase on November 14, 2011 at 4:14 PM

O/T Gosnell employee plea bargains and will testify against him.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_ABORTION_CLINIC_INVESTIGATION?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-11-14-15-54-51

a capella on November 14, 2011 at 4:16 PM

Vince on November 14, 2011 at 4:06 PM

Last time I checked I was female(checks again just be sure)and I’d have ZERO problem voting for Newt.

annoyinglittletwerp on November 14, 2011 at 4:17 PM

a capella on November 14, 2011 at 4:16 PM

That man is example #1 on why the death penalty is important.

annoyinglittletwerp on November 14, 2011 at 4:19 PM

I know Ryan’s name has been floated around a bit. Rubio said he was out, and I don’t know if Perry would be interested in the second slot.

Punchenko on November 14, 2011 at 4:09 PM

I want Paul Ryan to continue leading the House Budget Committee; if Ryan gets tapped for VP I would see it as an attempt to sideline him and prevent him from charging ahead with entitlement reform in 2013.

Lawdawg86 on November 14, 2011 at 4:19 PM

I would rather have my taxes tripled than donate one dime to Newt.

Snake307 on November 14, 2011 at 2:17 PM

Just stupid. Stupid. You’d rather have the government rob you of your money than of your free will donate money to a reasonably conservative Republican that would work to have the government rob you of less.

MeatHeadinCA on November 14, 2011 at 4:23 PM

Heh, how long before the DNC and LSM think back to 1994 and the Gingrich-orphanage controversy and bring that up to knock off our newest frontrunner?

I can’t believe they’d pass that up…

Dr. ZhivBlago on November 14, 2011 at 4:09 PM

They will and Gingrich would explain it the same way he did then, a Boys Town type of orphanage. He got lots of support from former orphans most of whom did better than being abandoned to their welfare mothers.

Vince on November 14, 2011 at 4:24 PM

I know Ryan’s name has been floated around a bit. Rubio said he was out, and I don’t know if Perry would be interested in the second slot.

Punchenko on November 14, 2011 at 4:09 PM

If Newt got the nod (and that’s a big if), it would be interesting to see him team up with Cain. Now, someone else floated the idea of Gingrich/Pence … but I’m sure that would be way too white for keepthechange.

MeatHeadinCA on November 14, 2011 at 4:26 PM

If you’d have asked me a few months ago there would have been no chance. Now, I think I might be able to support Newt. Must be the politics equivalent of beer goggles at last call.

ElectricPhase on November 14, 2011 at 4:14 PM

My wife is surprised to say the least. I was a Cain supporter, even if a bit wary, and a Newt hater. Now I am a Newt as second choice and Cain somewhere above paul, huntsman and romney.

Newt has shown that he has grown a bit since sitting with nancy, I sure hope it is real and not faked.

astonerii on November 14, 2011 at 4:31 PM

I know Ryan’s name has been floated around a bit. Rubio said he was out, and I don’t know if Perry would be interested in the second slot.

Punchenko on November 14, 2011 at 4:09 PM

I just can’t see Rick Perry playing second fiddle to anyone.

Knucklehead on November 14, 2011 at 4:31 PM

In 1993 I was in a hotel and Herman Cain was in the room next to me.
I heard though the walls Mr. Cain having sex. Those involved included but were not limited to two women prostitutes, a male prostitute, a 16 year old girl, a 12 year old boy, 3 gerbils, a boa constrictor, a donkey, and a partridge in a pear tree. Sadly the partridge did not make it through the night.

The man is out of control. Just listen to him and you can tell this is man who has no morals or control over his inner beast. The prostitutes commented to me that his performance on the trapeze and trampoline the hotel had installed at his bequest was beyond their wildest dreams. All looked totally worn out and needed weeks to recover. I tell you this man is dangerous! Why his stamina in the bedroom could wreck the moral fabric of our society!

All of this is critical to the issues that are important to this country.
Yes, a persons sexual proclivities, alluded to by ghostly 10 year old innuendos, are so critical in this countries time of need.
So pay attention. You might be the next partridge.

InkyBinkyBarleyBoo on November 14, 2011 at 4:32 PM

InkyBinkyBarleyBoo on November 14, 2011 at 4:32 PM

Would be funny, except that the reason our nation is in such deep debt is purely a social morality problem. The people keep voting for all this spending and the people keep voting to make the next generation pay for it. That is a moral problem, not a fiscal one. If the only problem you see facing America today is the debt and deficit, then you deserve the nation you have.

astonerii on November 14, 2011 at 4:35 PM

I just can’t see Rick Perry playing second fiddle to anyone.

Knucklehead on November 14, 2011 at 4:31 PM

In music, it’s important to remember your lines. I just can’t see him playing fiddle.

MeatHeadinCA on November 14, 2011 at 4:41 PM

….All of this is critical to the issues that are important to this country.
Yes, a persons sexual proclivities, alluded to by ghostly 10 year old innuendos, are so critical in this countries time of need.
So pay attention. You might be the next partridge.

InkyBinkyBarleyBoo on November 14, 2011 at 4:32 PM

Already heard that story, it was started by Newt Gingrich!
Ok, ok, it’s just a hunch!

G. on November 14, 2011 at 5:15 PM

I like the other way around…but…

Don L on November 14, 2011 at 3:39 PM

Me to, but She isn’t running :( so I’ll take Gingrich/Palin 2012!

Who is John Galt on November 14, 2011 at 6:16 PM

GINGRICH / RYAN 2012!

What better way to cement the loyalties of the base than by bringing one of our brightest young stars onto the ticket. And then we’d have not one, but TWO exceptional debaters. They’d wipe the floor with Obama, Biden AND the liberal debate moderators… every time.

Woody on November 14, 2011 at 6:44 PM

Heh, how long before the DNC and LSM think back to 1994 and the Gingrich-orphanage controversy and bring that up to knock off our newest frontrunner?

I can’t believe they’d pass that up…

Dr. ZhivBlago on November 14, 2011 at 4:09 PM

They will and Gingrich would explain it the same way he did then, a Boys Town type of orphanage. He got lots of support from former orphans most of whom did better than being abandoned to their welfare mothers.

Vince on November 14, 2011 at 4:24 PM

Sure, but you’re making a common mistake that I see a lot around here (probably on Huffpo and DU as well) that because most around you agree with you, you extrapolate the false idea that the majority of American voters are like-thinkers.

They’ll excoriate Gingrich like they did back when Slick Willy was “president”, they’ll dust off the “Grinch” thing and I’m sure it will be bye-bye to Republican frontrunner #x (losing track).

Then there’s the disastrous (World War II?) novel he wrote in which most copies were turned to pulp because they didn’t sell.

Now, they may wait until the general election to do so, but they can have a field day with him, obviously out of fear of his competence, intelligence, experience and political knowledge.

Dr. ZhivBlago on November 14, 2011 at 8:53 PM

Here is Hot Air’s “more conservative wing” track record in the past 5 months.

Bachmann? Flame out.
Perry? Epic flame out.
Cain? Stale cheese flame out.
Now Newt?

How many times do you have to fail before you realize y’all just aren’t very good at picking candidates? I would like to say “I told you so,” but that’s like playing an 80-20 basketball game and then doing a victory dance.

haner on November 15, 2011 at 1:22 AM

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