Open thread: The “second look at Gingrich” debate

posted at 7:31 pm on November 9, 2011 by Allahpundit

8 p.m. ET on CNBC, the first of four — count ‘em, four — debates in just 13 days. (The next is Saturday night.) Here’s the scene on InTrade as I write this. Dude?

A half-hour ago Newt’s odds were actually slightly better than Perry’s. And why not? He’s led Perry in five of the last six national polls and now leads him even in his supposed-to-be stronghold of South Carolina. Nate Silver posted a point-by-point pros-and-cons on Gingrich this morning, but it’s really not more complicated than this: (a) Apart from Romney, he’s the only credible candidate who consistently sounds like he knows what he’s talking about, and (b) he’s not Romney. Sounds good right now, unless you think a cutting joke about Ubeki-beki-beki-beki-stan-stan is apt to win over undecideds in a debate against Obama.

And yet, like a near-majority of Republicans, I still can’t help but think Romney will prevail in the end. Why? Because, as Jay Cost says, he’s the luckiest man alive:

I am sympathetic to the concern among grassroots conservatives that the GOP elites have political beliefs that differ from the rank-and-file. That being said, I do not think this accounts for Romney’s dominance. Instead, I think he will be the nominee largely because of good fortune: the number of potential, top-level challengers was unusually small this year, and the ones who could really have given him a run for his money have all dropped out or flamed out. Romney’s moderation and flip-flopping were potential weakness for 2012, but there is nobody of sufficient stature out there to challenge him over them…

We can tweak the requirements on the margins here and there — separating out the “presidential timber” was admittedly subjective — but we’d still only have Romney and Perry as the declared, high-profile candidates. The other Republicans running this time around are quite far from having the sort of resume that usually qualifies one for the nomination.

This explains why Romney is at the top of the heap. It is not because of some advantage the heirs of Rockefeller retain over the conservative grassroots. Instead, it’s just dumb luck. Romney’s position here is akin to being dealt a 5 and a 7, but drawing a straight on the river in a game of Texas Hold ‘em. He lucked out because relatively few Republicans were in that top tier with him, he lucked out again when five of his six competitors chose not to run, then he lucked out one more time when Perry turned out to be a dud. It’s not the inherent moderation of the party elite that explains his advantage, it’s just a perfect storm.

Cost is using executive experience as a prerequisite here, which is a solid rule of thumb normally but might not exclude Gingrich because of the place he inhabits in the conservative imagination. For one thing, he does have executive experience of a sort — he ran the House for a few years in the mid-90s. Beyond that, precisely because he does know what he’s talking about and enjoys the gravitas of being a party elder statesman, the usual fears of a congressman being in over his/her head as president aren’t there. Still hard to see him beating Romney, especially if he doesn’t win either Iowa or New Hampshire, but check those InTrade odds in three hours. As for me, I’m rooting for a brokered convention.

Tonight’s topic is the economy, incidentally, and since they’re in Michigan, there’s bound to be plenty of squirming about the GM bailout. While we wait, here’s Laura Ingraham making the case for Newt to Ann Coulter.

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Comment pages: 1 2 3 13

Bishop…!

Seven Percent Solution on November 9, 2011 at 7:32 PM

Come on Newt!

portlandon on November 9, 2011 at 7:33 PM

Gingrich will never win. It’s that simple.

Chudi on November 9, 2011 at 7:33 PM

The hall is rented. The orchestra engaged. Our frontrunners have center stage.

Time to see how they dance when the pressure is on…

JohnGalt23 on November 9, 2011 at 7:34 PM

I don’t think I have enough whiskey to drown out the amount of derp we’ll be hearing tonight.

mythicknight on November 9, 2011 at 7:34 PM

Gingrich will never win. It’s that simple.

Chudi on November 9, 2011 at 7:33 PM

Romney can’t beat Obama.

Buy Kleenex.

portlandon on November 9, 2011 at 7:34 PM

I thought this was the second look at Huntsman? With four debates in the next 13 days, are we close to a first look at Santorum? Or a third look at Bachmann?

joejm65 on November 9, 2011 at 7:34 PM

Anybody have a link for online viewing? I don’t get CNBC.

Oleta on November 9, 2011 at 7:36 PM

Let’s get ready to Ruuummmmbbbllleee!..:)

Dire Straits on November 9, 2011 at 7:36 PM

Romney can’t beat Obama.

Buy Kleenex.

portlandon on November 9, 2011 at 7:34 PM

Romney can beat Obama. But then what?

joejm65 on November 9, 2011 at 7:36 PM

Romney can beat Obama. But then what?

joejm65 on November 9, 2011 at 7:36 PM

Exactly.

sandee on November 9, 2011 at 7:39 PM

Romney can beat Obama. But then what?

joejm65 on November 9, 2011 at 7:36 PM

Then you press Congress to pass conservative legislation that he would be too embarrassed to veto.

JohnGalt23 on November 9, 2011 at 7:40 PM

NEWT!!!!

Nikkia2112 on November 9, 2011 at 7:41 PM

My only question: Does Newt have at least as good a chance as any of the other contenders to beat Obama?

Dash on November 9, 2011 at 7:41 PM

Perry at 9.3% on intrade is ridiculous.

Seriously. Raises 17 million, has almost every radio talk show host and blogger in the country on his side with a double digit lead entering the contest, and he is now fighting Newt for relevancy.

Yet some bloggers want everyone to lay down for a candidate who cant even get out of his own way.

swamp_yankee on November 9, 2011 at 7:42 PM

Sad thing is when I look at the GOP field I dont see a president I see people who should be in another candidates Cabinent

William Amos on November 9, 2011 at 7:42 PM

Excited for this debate! Lets see how they do.

nswider on November 9, 2011 at 7:43 PM

I switched public unions from WI to Ohio, they seem to have more clout these days.

So….FIRST!

Bishop on November 9, 2011 at 7:43 PM

CNBC Republican Debate from Michigan tonight at 8pm ET
on November 9th, 2011
*********************
*********************

Oakland University in Rochester, Michigan, will be hosting eight GOP candidates tonight for the CNBC “Your Money, Your Vote” debate focusing on the economy and jobs. Tonight’s event is only 90 minutes compared to previous GOP debates, featuring eight candidates, which have been 2 hours in length.

Air Time: Wednesday, November 9 at 8pm ET / 5pm PT on CNBC (channel finder)

Participants: Bachmann, Cain, Gingrich, Huntsman, Paul, Perry, Romney, Santorum

Live Stream: CNBC.com
======================
======================

http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2011/11/cnbc-republican-debate-from-michigan-tonight-at-8pm-et/

canopfor on November 9, 2011 at 7:31 PM

canopfor on November 9, 2011 at 7:43 PM

Romney can’t beat Obama.

Buy Kleenex.

portlandon on November 9, 2011 at 7:34 PM

You got that right!

cartooner on November 9, 2011 at 7:43 PM

My only question: Does Newt have at least as good a chance as any of the other contenders to beat Obama?
Dash on November 9, 2011 at 7:41 PM

I have some problems with the Newt, but in a debate forum with Teleprompter Boy….oof, I’d almost feel sympathy for PBHO. Almost.

Bishop on November 9, 2011 at 7:45 PM

Romney can’t beat Obama.

Buy Kleenex.

portlandon on November 9, 2011 at 7:34 PM

I think Romney can beat Obama. Sadly I dont know if that is good news for the GOP or for the democrats.

William Amos on November 9, 2011 at 7:45 PM

Prediction: Michelle will broadside Cain and probably get booed for it. She seems to be our resident “flav a flav” on stage.

BruthaMan on November 9, 2011 at 7:46 PM

REMINDER!
=========

2012 Primary Debate Schedule
****************************

Here is the most up-to-date and complete schedule we have for the 2011 / 2012 Republican Primary debates. These debates are between all the Republican candidates. For the schedule of debates between the Republican nominee and President Barack Obama, see the 2012 Presidential Debate schedule page.
===================================

November 12, 2011 8pm ET on CBS – Tickets
******************************************
Location: Wofford College in Spartanburg, South Carolina
Sponsor: CBS News, The National Journal and the Republican Party of South Carolina
Participants: TBD

November 19, 2011 Thanksgiving Family Forum
********************************************
5pm ET on C-SPAN
Location: First Federated Church in Des Moines, Iowa
Sponsor: The Family Leader
Participants: Bachmann, Cain, Gingrich, Paul, Perry and Santorum all confirmed, Romney unconfirmed
———————————–

http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-debate-schedule/2011-2012-primary-debate-schedule/

canopfor on November 9, 2011 at 7:46 PM

So, I guess the entire debate were going to have to deal with all of these graphics on the side? Man thats annoying.

nswider on November 9, 2011 at 7:47 PM

My only question: Does Newt have at least as good a chance as any of the other contenders to beat Obama?

Dash on November 9, 2011 at 7:41 PM

No. Newt loses to Obama by an average of 11 points. Only Bachmann does worse.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/president_obama_vs_republican_candidates.html

Jon0815 on November 9, 2011 at 7:48 PM

Romney might just surprise us. Dubya was a disappointment on domestic policy, but he rose to the occasion when it came to fighting back against terrorists. The country wasn’t in this kind of bad shape when Romney ran in 2008. He’s a smart guy. If he wins, he’ll see the opportunity to do the kind of logical things to turn things around that Obama refuses to do. No, he’s not going to shut down the EPA or outlaw public unions, but I don’t think he’ll be business as usual, not when things are this bad, and he has the ability to be the man who rescued America from the brink.

ardenenoch on November 9, 2011 at 7:48 PM

Breaking………………………..

@Reuters
Blast hits gas pipeline between Egypt, Jordan, Israel http://t.co/9PNnzeGc
20 Min.ago
***********

http://www.breakingnews.com/

canopfor on November 9, 2011 at 7:48 PM

the first of four — count ‘em, four — debates in just 13 days.

You know who this doesn’t help?

whatcat on November 9, 2011 at 7:49 PM

I’d almost feel sympathy for PBHO. Almost.

Bishop on November 9, 2011 at 7:45 PM

Softy! I wouldn’t feel any sympathy. Not one bit, not even close.

I’d have to change my handle to schadenfreude if it wasn’t already taken.

cozmo on November 9, 2011 at 7:49 PM

For one thing, he does have executive experience of a sort — he ran the House for a few years in the mid-90s.

Yeah, and he did such a stellar job that he helped Billy Jeff get reelected. The problem with Newt is that he is so full of himself that it takes a herculean effort to get him to admit he’s wrong. As I said in the other thread, it took him over 3 yrs to admit that boneheaded ad with Pelosi was boneheaded. I still can’t get that image of the two of them sitting on that bench out of my head. Ick.

Him calling Ryan’s budget “right-wing social engineering” and his support of RomneyCare pretty much sealed the deal for me. No second look at Newt.

rcpjr on November 9, 2011 at 7:50 PM

Most likely to take a cheap shot at Herb:

Dick Huntsman!

kg598301 on November 9, 2011 at 7:50 PM

Perdiction,

Cain gets Bimbo’d Eruptus Ambushed,by,Lefty
moderator!!

canopfor on November 9, 2011 at 7:50 PM

I’m feeling — dare I say it? — Newtmentum!!!

cynccook on November 9, 2011 at 7:51 PM

kg598301 on November 9, 2011 at 7:50 PM

Lol, your probably right.

nswider on November 9, 2011 at 7:51 PM

Anybody know if I can watch the debate online?

Saltysam on November 9, 2011 at 7:51 PM

You know who this doesn’t help?

whatcat on November 9, 2011 at 7:49 PM

Palin ?

gh on November 9, 2011 at 7:52 PM

Yeah, and he did such a stellar job that he helped Billy Jeff get reelected. The problem with Newt is that he is so full of himself that it takes a herculean effort to get him to admit he’s wrong. As I said in the other thread, it took him over 3 yrs to admit that boneheaded ad with Pelosi was boneheaded. I still can’t get that image of the two of them sitting on that bench out of my head. Ick.

Him calling Ryan’s budget “right-wing social engineering” and his support of RomneyCare pretty much sealed the deal for me. No second look at Newt.

rcpjr on November 9, 2011 at 7:50 PM

Yeah, it was more like the fact that they got the economy moving again that helped Clinton. Now we’re supposed to penalize Newt for doing his job back then?

cynccook on November 9, 2011 at 7:52 PM

Saltysam on November 9, 2011 at 7:51 PM

Scroll up through the comments, Canopfor posted the link.

nswider on November 9, 2011 at 7:53 PM

I switched public unions from WI to Ohio, they seem to have more clout these days.

So….FIRST!

Bishop on November 9, 2011 at 7:43 PM

Bishop:Next you will tell us,your starting a new line of GoonIon
lures!!haha:)

canopfor on November 9, 2011 at 7:53 PM

Scroll up through the comments, Canopfor posted the link.

nswider on November 9, 2011 at 7:53 PM

Thanks!

Thanks, Canopfor!

Saltysam on November 9, 2011 at 7:54 PM

Anybody know if I can watch the debate online?

Saltysam on November 9, 2011 at 7:51 PM

Live Stream: None, CNBC is NOT streaming the debate

http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2011/11/cnbc-republican-debate-from-michigan-tonight-at-8pm-et/

William Amos on November 9, 2011 at 7:55 PM

OT: SMU got the football Death Penalty for a lot less than PennState

faraway on November 9, 2011 at 7:55 PM

cyncook, it’s what he’s done since then that is the problem. If Newt winds up our candidate, I’ll vote for him, but no way he beats obama.

Hard Right on November 9, 2011 at 7:55 PM

He lucked out because relatively few Republicans were in that top tier with him, he lucked out again when five of his six competitors chose not to run, then he lucked out one more time when Perry turned out to be a dud.

I know of at least one candidate who did not choose not to run but was forced out by Team Romney and the GOP establishment.

promachus on November 9, 2011 at 7:56 PM

T-Minus…tick..tick…tick….

to Snark your verbal engines!!

canopfor on November 9, 2011 at 7:56 PM

90 minutes for 8 candidates with moderators and applause taking up time. Ugh. Newt has to be the favorite for landing a new heavy hit on Obama, from a direction not anticipated by the moderators.

GaltBlvnAtty on November 9, 2011 at 7:56 PM

I have been all over the place with these candidates. My first choices aren’t running. I have had to rationalize all of them, particularly Romney. I have seen the debates and believe the smartest most qualified person in the race is Newt.

Seeing him on Fox yesterday has led me to the conclusion that he should be the nominee.

His checkered past doesn’t bother me anymore. He seems to have had a spiritual awakening and is more comfortable in his skin than ever.

He’s is the best of the lot. He would beat Obama’s brains in during a debate.

joepub on November 9, 2011 at 7:56 PM

I hope we hurry up and get Huntsman’s and Newt’s flavor of the week turns out of the way soon. By my estimation, after you throw out rino Romney and throw out Paul, that will leave only Bachmann and Santorum left standing, either of which I can tolerate.

Buddahpundit on November 9, 2011 at 7:56 PM

Has anybody found a live stream?

mfrantom on November 9, 2011 at 7:56 PM

promachus on November 9, 2011 at 7:56 PM

Who?

nswider on November 9, 2011 at 7:57 PM

Newt, Perry, Romney, Cain, even Santorum. ABO!!!

LASue on November 9, 2011 at 7:57 PM

Has anybody found a live stream?

mfrantom on November 9, 2011 at 7:56 PM

Try -
http://www.rentadrone.tv/debate

whatcat on November 9, 2011 at 7:57 PM

Akward…

… The candidates were all talking to each other, except Herman Cain.

Seven Percent Solution on November 9, 2011 at 7:57 PM

CNBC will NOT be live streaming the debate tonight.

Saltysam on November 9, 2011 at 7:57 PM

Then you press Congress to pass conservative legislation that he would be too embarrassed to veto.

JohnGalt23 on November 9, 2011 at 7:40 PM

Sure seems like a good plan… with conservative stalwarts like Boehner as Speaker of the House and McConnell as Senate Majority (?) Leader. /sarc

TheRightMan on November 9, 2011 at 7:57 PM

Has anybody found a live stream?

mfrantom on November 9, 2011 at 7:56 PM

Debate wont be online.

William Amos on November 9, 2011 at 7:58 PM

Live Stream: None, CNBC is NOT streaming the debate
http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2011/11/cnbc-republican-debate-from-michigan-tonight-at-8pm-et/

William Amos on November 9, 2011 at 7:55 PM

William Amos:Sh*t,nearly had a herat-attack,same link,I posted,
most excellent work——————–:)

canopfor on November 9, 2011 at 7:58 PM

Come on Newt!

portlandon

Ohh, you were schilling for Newt. THAT explains why you were so eager to tear Cain down. Figures. Scum of a feather.

Hard Right on November 9, 2011 at 7:58 PM

Has anybody found a live stream?

mfrantom on November 9, 2011 at 7:56 PM

I found a Newt in mine.

faraway on November 9, 2011 at 7:58 PM

Has anybody found a live stream?
mfrantom on November 9, 2011 at 7:56 PM

Try -
http://www.rentadrone.tv/debate
whatcat on November 9, 2011 at 7:57 PM

(BTW, not responsible for what ya might find on links, lol)

whatcat on November 9, 2011 at 7:59 PM

Bishop:Next you will tell us,your starting a new line of GoonIon
lures!!haha:)
canopfor on November 9, 2011 at 7:53 PM

I regularly use Goonion lures, they’re called “leeches”.

Bishop on November 9, 2011 at 7:59 PM

I cant believe its not online! Ridiculous.

nswider on November 9, 2011 at 7:59 PM

CNBC should have hired Frank Williams Jr. to start the show…

Seven Percent Solution on November 9, 2011 at 8:00 PM

This intro is a bummer.

Mark1971 on November 9, 2011 at 8:01 PM

That debate intro was pretty solid.

mythicknight on November 9, 2011 at 8:02 PM

I cant believe its not online! Ridiculous.

nswider on November 9, 2011 at 7:59 PM

Just one more reason to boycott NBC

William Amos on November 9, 2011 at 8:02 PM

I’d love to see the candidates all say to the moderators, “One scandal question, and we’re walking out.” Then do it if they don’t obey.

predator on November 9, 2011 at 8:02 PM

going to go out on a limb and say CNBC debates are the least watched, least influential

jp on November 9, 2011 at 8:02 PM

He looked like he was going to throw up when he said “Republican”

faraway on November 9, 2011 at 8:02 PM

Try -
http://www.rentadrone.tv/debate
whatcat on November 9, 2011 at 7:57 PM

Thanks, this one works!

cynccook on November 9, 2011 at 8:03 PM

This is ridiculous, its not online?

Lawdawg86 on November 9, 2011 at 8:03 PM

Nice applause Herman…!

Seven Percent Solution on November 9, 2011 at 8:03 PM

Michelle Bachmann left her Sgt. Pepper uniform home tonight.

Knucklehead on November 9, 2011 at 8:03 PM

Perry is awake!!

faraway on November 9, 2011 at 8:03 PM

This is ridiculous, its not online?

Lawdawg86 on November 9, 2011 at 8:03 PM

Use whatcat’s link:

Try -
http://www.rentadrone.tv/debate
whatcat on November 9, 2011 at 7:57 PM

cynccook on November 9, 2011 at 8:04 PM

“The smartest people on CNBC … Jim Cramer”!!!

faraway on November 9, 2011 at 8:04 PM

“We may have to interupt you…”

BBBBWWWWWWAAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHHAAHAH…!!!

Seven Percent Solution on November 9, 2011 at 8:04 PM

Jim Cramer, dressing like a p!mp

JohnGalt23 on November 9, 2011 at 8:04 PM

Herman Cain just loves those yellow ties. The Dems pundits must feel that it reeks of “sexual power”, I guess…

Always Right on November 9, 2011 at 8:04 PM

4 minutes in and no questions yet.

GaltBlvnAtty on November 9, 2011 at 8:05 PM

Y’all say thank you: http://www.zahistation.com/watch-cnbc-live

Lawdawg86 on November 9, 2011 at 8:05 PM

This is a cookie cutter format..?

d1carter on November 9, 2011 at 8:05 PM

Try -
http://www.rentadrone.tv/debate
whatcat on November 9, 2011 at 7:57 PM

Thanks, this one works!

cynccook on November 9, 2011 at 8:03 PM

If it pauses, just click play.

whatcat on November 9, 2011 at 8:05 PM

Softball to Cain.

GaltBlvnAtty on November 9, 2011 at 8:05 PM

For once, I’d like a candidate’s mic to simply be cut off when they go on a wild tangent.

mythicknight on November 9, 2011 at 8:06 PM

If it pauses, just click play.

whatcat on November 9, 2011 at 8:05 PM

Thanks, buddy! :-D

cynccook on November 9, 2011 at 8:06 PM

Mitt: “We dont want to bail out Italy”

faraway on November 9, 2011 at 8:07 PM

First time I’ve seen Mitt in days…

d1carter on November 9, 2011 at 8:07 PM

Decent answer by Cain on the looming Italian failure. Notice the gotch at the end from the moderator: “So to be clear – let Italy fail!”

cane_loader on November 9, 2011 at 8:07 PM

No bailouts. There you go Mitt.

nswider on November 9, 2011 at 8:07 PM

I’d love to see the candidates all say to the moderators, “One scandal question, and we’re walking out.” Then do it if they don’t obey.

predator on November 9, 2011 at 8:02 PM

THIS

cane_loader on November 9, 2011 at 8:08 PM

DVR’g the debate. Watching the CMA Awards, crowd just gave Hank Jr. a rowdy standing O when he walked on stage.

TXUS on November 9, 2011 at 8:08 PM

Cramer is there. I might have to turn this off.

Mark1971 on November 9, 2011 at 8:08 PM

No bailouts. There you go Mitt.

nswider on November 9, 2011 at 8:07 PM

Cain said the same thing “fix us first”

Knucklehead on November 9, 2011 at 8:08 PM

Romney with a good answer..:)

Dire Straits on November 9, 2011 at 8:08 PM

Why on earth is Jim Cramer let anywhere near economics anymore?

mythicknight on November 9, 2011 at 8:08 PM

Gah . . . do I have to hear this Cramer guy scream all night?

Alana on November 9, 2011 at 8:09 PM

Comment pages: 1 2 3 13