Note to self: Start drinking early tomorrow night.
What might be most remarkable about the 23 point margin in this poll is that it’s exactly identical to what we found the first time we polled on this issue all the way back in March. Voters were furious then and that anger has continued all the way to November.
Democrats are almost unanimous in their opposition to SB 5, supporting repeal by an 86-10 margin. Meanwhile there’s division in the Republican ranks- 30% are planning to vote down their Governor’s signature proposal while only 66% are supportive of it. Independents split against it by a 54/39 spread as well.
If this margin holds on Tuesday night it will be a humiliating defeat for John Kasich. Kasich continues to be one of the most unpopular Governors in the country with only 33% of voters approving of him to 57% who disapprove. The only person we’ve found with worse numbers this year is Hawaii Governor Neil Abercrombie. If Ohio voters could do it over again they’d reelect Ted Strickland by a 55-37 margin over Kasich, and although they don’t have an opportunity for a redo on the Gubernatorial election the likely results of the Senate Bill 5 referendum on Tuesday can be seen as a proxy for it.
I know what you’re thinking. Didn’t I write a post just two weeks ago about how confusion over the ballot language for SB 5 might make tomorrow’s vote much closer than thought? Indeed I did! PPP thought of that this time too, though: Its new poll used the ballot question verbatim, and they still got a 23-point spread in opposition. The demographic breakdown:
No meaningful disparities among age groups and killer heavy opposition among independents. The GOP would need herculean turnout to offset those numbers, and even if they got it, I’m still not sure the referendum would pass with these numbers. Among Republicans, support for the bill is running only slightly better than two to one. If this holds tomorrow, it’s going to be a huge boost for labor.
Here’s Kasich defending the bill on Hannity’s show a few weeks ago. Don’t forget to vote tomorrow, HA Ohioans.