Unemployment edges to 9.0%, 80K jobs added

posted at 8:37 am on November 4, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

Unemployment dropped a tenth of a point in October but the number of jobs added provided less than needed for population growth, according to the latest report from the BLS:

Nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend up in October (+80,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in the private sector rose, with modest job growth continuing in professional and businesses services, leisure and hospitality, health care, and mining. Government employment continued to trend down. …

Total nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend up in October (+80,000). Over the past 12 months, payroll employment has increased by an average of 125,000 per month. In October, private-sector employment increased by 104,000, with continued job growth in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, health care, and mining. Government employment continued to contract in October.

Analysts expected an overall job growth number around 95,000, so this falls short of predictions. Even with just the private-sector growth taken into consideration, the number isn’t enough to keep up with population growth. I suspect the topline number fell because the workforce may still be shrinking, although the civilian participation rate and employment-population ratios remained the same as last month.

Looking a little deeper into the year-on-year numbers for people not in the work force (and therefore not counted in the jobless rate), those numbers (not seasonally adjusted) increased from October 2010, from 84.878 million to 86.181 million.  People who want work but remain outside the labor force rose from 5.867 million to 5.969 million, although the category of “discouraged workers” dropped from 1.219 million to 967,000.  The seasonally-adjusted numbers show a one-month increase in people who want a job but don’t have one from 6.241 million to 6.403 million — a bad sign after last month’s decrease in this figure.

However, U-6 dropped back down three-tenths of a point to 16.2%, the same level as in August, which is a move in the right direction, but not much change from the rest of 2011.  That measures all unemployment, underemployment, and marginal attachment, and it’s a more reliable indicator than the top line number in this recovery. (via No Runny Eggs)

Reuters tries to find the happy thought:

The Labor Department says the economy added 80,000 jobs last month, the fewest in four months and below September’s revised total of 158,000. The unemployment rate dipped to 9 percent.

Businesses added 104,000 jobs, below September’s total. Government shed 24,000 jobs.

The report included some positive signs. The government revised August and September’s figures upward by 102,000. Average hourly earnings rose. And the unemployment rate fell for the first time since July, because a separate survey of households showed more people found work.

It’s weak tea, really, as we lost ground once again to population growth.  Essentially, the report shows that the 2.5% GDP rate in Q3 didn’t prompt much hiring, which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise anyway.  It also shows that Barack Obama won’t get a rescue from the economy before his election bid, as the Fed expects no higher than 2.5-2.9% GDP growth in 2012.

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Obama….”See the unemployment number went down!”

sandee on November 4, 2011 at 8:39 AM

At this rate of “job creation” we should be seeing “full” employment (4-5% unemployment) in about 20 years, maybe 25?

Thank you, Prezdit Obama. My life, for you!

Putz.

coldwarrior on November 4, 2011 at 8:41 AM

Happy Days. Thank you, OWS, you’re working wonders.

Bishop on November 4, 2011 at 8:41 AM

you should be thanking me.
/bho

ted c on November 4, 2011 at 8:42 AM

Well, let’s hold our fire untile the numbers are “revised”. I think they will find out that the new jobs numbers were unexpectedly (!!!) lower than first reported…..

Isn’t that always how it goes?

dczombie on November 4, 2011 at 8:42 AM

and all the SHEEPle will get from ABC,CBS and NBC is that the unemployment rate DROPPED…..yes let’s give the man child another shot at 4 more years…..

SDarchitect on November 4, 2011 at 8:43 AM

Doesn’t make sense to me. I believe we need ,at a minimum, 150,000 new jobs/moth just to break even. So how can the rate go down if only 80,000 jobs were created?

huckleberryfriend on November 4, 2011 at 8:47 AM

I checked the Stimulus I unemployment projection chart… we’re at 6.2% and we’ll be under 6% by 1Q of 2012.

I have no idea what you wingnuts are looking at.

mankai on November 4, 2011 at 8:47 AM

If you don’t count people who are actually unemployed, the number is 0%.

“Do it!” said PBHO.

Bishop on November 4, 2011 at 8:49 AM

By these standards the rate will be 6% by election time but with more unemployed throughout the country…

PatriotRider on November 4, 2011 at 8:49 AM

“Please stop looking for work – that’s our only hope!” bho

tomg51 on November 4, 2011 at 8:50 AM

It’s comforting to know that at least these people are better off than they were four years ago.
/

Patrick S on November 4, 2011 at 8:50 AM

Yep, keep fudging those stats, Mr. Downgrade. Keep artificially reducing the actual size of the labor force to make yourself look good.

No one except the 0Zombies are buying it.

dogsoldier on November 4, 2011 at 8:53 AM

Doesn’t make sense to me. I believe we need ,at a minimum, 150,000 new jobs/moth just to break even. So how can the rate go down if only 80,000 jobs were created?

huckleberryfriend on November 4, 2011 at 8:47 AM

Plus, didnt’ the BLS use the added 41k Verizon strikers to this number? Just wait for the “adjustments”/”revisions”—and an unexpected rise.

Rovin on November 4, 2011 at 8:53 AM

Birth/Death Rate = 103,000
Actual Job Number = -23,000

In Oct. 1983 – the US created 271,000 as the Reagan Recovery gained momentum

LordMaximus on November 4, 2011 at 8:56 AM

C’mon man! Without all of his 24/7/365 hard work, I mean with hardly a break, and the tireless efforts of Reid and Pelosi, not to mention that of the First LinebackerLady, I mean, we’d be looking at unemployment numbers in 70-80% range. Or something.

TXUS on November 4, 2011 at 8:57 AM

In yesterday’s poll, 28.92% (422 votes) of Hot Air voters picked 9%. (Congrats?) The majority, 36.33% (530 votes), chose 9.1%. (Not bad?)

I voted with 9.18% (134 votes) for 8.9%. Meh. I guess they are saving the breaking 9% blitz for a little closer to elections time?

Fallon on November 4, 2011 at 8:59 AM

I picked 8.9 % myself. If they’re going to fudge the numbers why not tweak them just a tad more. The MSM will gladly cover for them.

sandee on November 4, 2011 at 9:02 AM

Stewart Varney: “If you want to get unemployment down to 8.5%, (by next November) you will need 200,000 jobs per month.”

Rovin on November 4, 2011 at 9:04 AM

I voted with 9.18% (134 votes) for 8.9%. Meh. I guess they are saving the breaking 9% blitz for a little closer to elections time?

Fallon on November 4, 2011 at 8:59 AM

And, you can bet that the LSM will be heralding anything below 9%, even 8.99% as 8%, and that Obama’s stimulus and health care reform worked. Promise kept!

TXUS on November 4, 2011 at 9:05 AM

And remember it takes something like 6 months to convince the general public that good numbers really mean good times are here. So Obama only has till spring to be rescued by the economy. It’s looking now like he’ll have to stay with his class warfare strategy through the election to have a chance of earning four more years in the WH.

Fred 2 on November 4, 2011 at 9:06 AM


Obama:
“If those Republican obstructionist had passed my jobs bill…everything would be getting better by now…..God said so.”

Baxter Greene on November 4, 2011 at 9:07 AM

Now we can get back to talking about 9-9-9% unemployment.

WashJeff on November 4, 2011 at 9:12 AM

Looking around at the headlines the media is pimping this as a “positive.” The unemployment rate “dipped.” Happy days are here again!

sandee on November 4, 2011 at 9:17 AM

At this rate of “job creation” we should be seeing “full” employment (4-5% unemployment) in about 20 years, maybe 25?

Thank you, Prezdit Obama. My life, for you!

Putz.

coldwarrior on November 4, 2011 at 8:41 AM

More likely, the 13th month of never.

Steve Eggleston on November 4, 2011 at 9:20 AM

If only those evil House Republicans would stop blocking Barack’s jobs bill!!

SouthernGent on November 4, 2011 at 9:25 AM

Spin away

cmsinaz on November 4, 2011 at 9:37 AM

At this rate, it will be at 8% in Nov. 2012 – still worse than Bush on his worst day.

Good Lt on November 4, 2011 at 9:44 AM

Ed, can you add the poll results? 9.0 was what I guessed.

Ward Cleaver on November 4, 2011 at 9:47 AM

Government shed 24,000 jobs.

Silver lining.

More please!

pain train on November 4, 2011 at 9:56 AM

All the gloom and doom about how it will take us years, YEARS, to return to full employment, even if Republicans are elected instead of Dhimmicrats, is misplaced.

If given the fact that a Republican will be in charge and the Senate will be more sympathetic to House bills after January 2013, then by January 2014, unemployment will be under 6% and heading towards 5% or less. This prediction also assumes that Republicans will repeal Obamacare, allow oil drilling in the Gulf of Mexico and off the coasts of the US (and yes, Alaska), and that the US Budget is actually cut below this year’s budget by a measurable amount. If the indicators go in the correct direction, then business will begin hiring, the Bust will be over, and a Boom like you’ve never seen will replace it for the next ten years. We will still have to suffer through some conflicts that could have been prevented by real diplomacy and strength in our foreign policy, but we may be able to survive it by a rapidly expanding economy and the revised priorities war for our very existence will bring.

If Obama is re elected, or the Senate isn’t at least Republican policy sympathetic (able to get reasonable Democrats to vote for prosperity instead of Communism), then stand by for this to be the status of the US economy in the world for the rest of our lives and our children’s lives. We will be a failed superpower for sure.

If Obama get’s re elected, odds are we will see World War III at the end of his second term or shortly thereafter…. Count on it.

The American people have ample evidence that Socialism doesn’t work. They are not happy and will respond by punishing Dhimmicrats who brought us here.

You heard it here first.

Subsunk

Subsunk on November 4, 2011 at 10:00 AM

Unemployment edges to 9.0%, 80K jobs added

Holiday hiring started.

batterup on November 4, 2011 at 10:12 AM

Birth/Death Rate = 103,000
Legal immigration = 150,000
Actual Job Number = -23,000 -173,000

LordMaximus on November 4, 2011 at 8:56 AM

FIFY.

Rebar on November 4, 2011 at 10:24 AM

Job growth below what is needed to keep pace, yet employment rate goes down.

Hot is cold … wet is dry … old is new … short is long … high is low.

bw222 on November 4, 2011 at 10:52 AM

Barry will just pull a number from his ass and tell everyone how many jobs he’s ‘saved’. The Obamabots will believe him.

GarandFan on November 4, 2011 at 10:52 AM

Holiday hiring started.

batterup on November 4, 2011 at 10:12 AM

People stopped looking … or both.

bw222 on November 4, 2011 at 10:54 AM

I call BS on the rate drop. In fact, I call BS on the rate itself.

ornery_independent on November 4, 2011 at 11:10 AM

The American people have ample evidence that Socialism doesn’t work. They are not happy and will respond by punishing Dhimmicrats who brought us here.

You heard it here first.

Subsunk

Subsunk on November 4, 2011 at 10:00 AM

While I tend to agree with you, in the back of my mind is always that little tidbit that almost half of all Americans get some form of government subsidy. Those who depend on government to feed them will never vote to cut that lifeline. No politician is going to cut his own political throat and actually reduce entitlements. Until we get our government out of the hands of politicians and back into the hands of the people I think we’re screwed no matter who wins. It’s just a matter of how long it’s going to take. With Obama another 4 years would do it. With any of the others it will be delayed for a while.

Oldnuke on November 4, 2011 at 11:12 AM

Barry will just pull a number from his ass and tell everyone how many jobs he’s ‘saved’. The Obamabots will believe him.

GarandFan on November 4, 2011 at 10:52 AM

Well the Obamabots don’t really matter since they will pull the lever for The Won no matter what. Overall that’s a fairly small number. There are a larger number of us who wouldn’t vote for Obama if a NBP goon was in the booth with us. What he has to do is convince a large majority of those “Independents” that they should vote for him. I don’t think he’s being very successful there. His halo’s gotten a little tarnished in the last couple of years.

Oldnuke on November 4, 2011 at 11:19 AM

The American people have ample evidence that Socialism doesn’t work. They are not happy and will respond by punishing Dhimmicrats who brought us here.

You heard it here first.

Subsunk

Subsunk on November 4, 2011 at 10:00 AM

People had ample evidence after the trifecta of Johnson, Nixon and Carter. We elected Reagan but failed to fix the real problem in the House and Senate and then went back to Socialism Lite with Bush I, Clinton and Bush II and Socialism heavy with Obama. Don’t bet the mortgage on thinking the American people have had enough of Socialism.

The 2010 elections put 63 new representatives (not all conservatives) in office but left about 372 old school socialism lite representatives in office. The senate put 7 new pubs in (not all conservatives) and left 93 old school types in office. So I really don’t see much evidence that this country is sick and tired of Socialism.

chemman on November 4, 2011 at 11:40 AM

Unemployment dropped a tenth of a point in October but the number of jobs added provided less than needed for population growth,

OK, I’m just an engineer, therefore I’ve only had the maths through differential calculus and tensor equations, so someone smart needs to explain to me how you can add less jobs than needed to accommodate population growth yet have the unemployment number go down.

Could one of the economic adviser wizards explain this to me?

AZfederalist on November 4, 2011 at 1:06 PM

Doesn’t make sense to me. I believe we need ,at a minimum, 150,000 new jobs/moth just to break even. So how can the rate go down if only 80,000 jobs were created?

huckleberryfriend on November 4, 2011 at 8:47 AM

Job growth below what is needed to keep pace, yet employment rate goes down.

Hot is cold … wet is dry … old is new … short is long … high is low.

bw222 on November 4, 2011 at 10:52 AM

OK, I’m just an engineer, therefore I’ve only had the maths through differential calculus and tensor equations, so someone smart needs to explain to me how you can add less jobs than needed to accommodate population growth yet have the unemployment number go down.

Could one of the economic adviser wizards explain this to me?

AZfederalist on November 4, 2011 at 1:06 PM

I wholeheartedly agree. This number is such B.S..

I hate the way that they game the numbers. Ever since the changes to the way they count them in 1994, they are completely unreliable.

The only number published should be the percentage of population which is actually employed.

Theophile on November 4, 2011 at 1:29 PM