Q-poll approval rating for Occupy movement: 30/39

posted at 11:25 am on November 3, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

How popular has the Occupy Movement made itself over the last few weeks?  At first, it enjoyed a plurality of support, thanks to generous media coverage and lingering mainstream frustration over bailouts and the state of the economy.  After the demonstrations turned violent in ways large and small, that support has begun to erode.  In the latest national poll from Quinnipiac, the movement has a plurality disapproving of the demonstrations and demonstrators:

By a 39 – 30 percent margin, American voters have an unfavorable opinion of the Occupy Wall Street movement, with 30 percent who don’t know enough about it for an opinion.

The Tea Party movement gets a slightly more negative 45 – 31 percent unfavorable rating, with 24 percent who don’t know enough about it for an opinion.

I’ll return to the comparison in a moment. First, National Journal notes the significance of the shift:

A sign that the Occupy Wall Street movement isn’t the best long-term vehicle for Democrats to connect themselves with: A new Quinnipiac poll, showing a plurality of voters viewing the group unfavorably.

The poll, released today, show 30 percent of voters surveyed view the movement favorably, 39 percent unfavorably, with an additional 30 percent not hearing enough to have an opinion.  It’s one of the first national polls to suggest voters are growing skeptical of Occupy Wall Street- and it comes as police have clashed with protesters in several cities.  Previous national polls have shown a plurality of adults supporting the movement.

It’s probably worse than NJ imagines.  Yesterday, both NJ and I noted that the latest Q-poll had oddly boosted Barack Obama’s approval rating even though he hadn’t improved in any of the partisan demographics.  I suspected that Quinnipiac’s sample had shifted significantly to Democrats, and  Steven Shephard confirmed it later:

The sample of voters to whom Quinnipiac talked in the new poll is significantly more Democratic — and less Republican — than the early October survey. In the current poll, 35 percent of respondents identified as Democrats, 22 percent as Republicans and 36 percent as independents, according to data provided to National JournalWednesday morning. In the early October poll, 31 percent of respondents were Democrats, 28 percent were Republicans and 33 percent were independents.

(For reference: In 2008, according to exit polls, 39 percent of voters identified as Democrats, 32 percent identified as Republicans and 29 percent identified as independents. In the 2010 midterm elections; the percentages of Democrats and Republicans were equal; midterm elections typically feature higher Republican turnout.)

In a phone interview Wednesday morning, Quinnipiac Poll director Doug Schwartz said his organization does not weight by party identification, and the poll’s large sample size guards against over-sampling or under-sampling a certain subgroup. A review of other demographic data from the two polls shows that there were not significant discrepancies in the breakdowns by age, gender, geographical region or race across the surveys.

This poll was conducted with the same sample — that features a D+13 shift, and unweighted.  Not only is that almost twice as large as the 2008 turnout split from exit polling, it’s also almost twice as much as Barack Obama’s margin of victory in the 2008 election.  Unless Quinnipiac wants to argue that the country has become significantly more Democratic over the last three years of Obama’s term, this sample is ridiculously unrepresentative of the electorate.

In response, I took Quinnipiac’s sample and reweighted it for both the 2008 and 2010 exit polling percentages for partisan split.  In the 2008 model, the approval rating for the Occupy movement goes to 29/41; with the 2010 model, it goes to 28/42.  The Tea Party, on the other hand, fares a bit better in both models, although it’s still underwater in both. The 2008 model has a 32/44 approval rating, while the 2010 model is 34/41.

And what happens to Obama’s approval rating?  It doesn’t stay at 47/49.  In the 2008 model it falls to 46/50, and in the 2010 model to 43/52 — which turns out to be pretty close to his previous Q-poll rating of 41/55.

Update (Allahpundit): Philip Klein looks at Quinnipiac’s sample and makes a nice catch about how OWS is viewed by people with different income levels.

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Bullshiite, this is bullsh…..

Down twinkles! DOWN TWINKLES!

Bishop on November 3, 2011 at 11:28 AM

Vandals and anarchists… Sounds like Democrats to me!!

Khun Joe on November 3, 2011 at 11:30 AM

I gotcher twinkles RIGHTERE, pally!

fusionaddict on November 3, 2011 at 11:31 AM

Quinnipiac needs to poll somewhere outside their own faculty lounge.

Mr. D on November 3, 2011 at 11:32 AM

That’s not very twinkley :(

lorien1973 on November 3, 2011 at 11:33 AM

Ed, There is more support for the position that Quinn’s sample is outlandish.

There are multiple polls showing the GOP has a massive 18-27 pt enthusiasm gap over the Dems.

That should but is not being reflected in current poll samples.

Agendas.

artist on November 3, 2011 at 11:33 AM

This should help Men’s Wearhouse.

Right, sesquipedalian?

Del Dolemonte on November 3, 2011 at 11:33 AM

The sample should always be put at the TOP of any posting about a poll, survey, or questionaire, and shaded to highlight it.

D+13 is entirely skewed, but sadly is also typical of all polls that come out.

Shawn92101 on November 3, 2011 at 11:33 AM

That’ll go down after last night, methinks.

Bob's Kid on November 3, 2011 at 11:33 AM

Even if you are against everything the Tea Party stands for, how can they been seen in a more negative light? It’s not like they weren’t already out there and voting accordingly and they certainly didn’t hurt anyone or anything by gathering. I don’t get it.

Cindy Munford on November 3, 2011 at 11:36 AM

At first, it enjoyed a plurality of support, thanks to generous media coverage and lingering mainstream frustration over bailouts and the state of the economy.

Not to mention push polling by attributing to OWS positions that are popular, but not necessarily representative of OWS.

besser tot als rot on November 3, 2011 at 11:36 AM

Not to worry. Once the invasion of the low-lifes and sewer rats overwhelms these OWS protests, the young, mis-guided idealogues will sense that things are not going the way they envisioned and, if they’re smart, will leave before something bad happens to them. Or, if they aren’t too bright, once they get raped, bludgeoned, or robbed of everything, they’ll figure it out.

iamsaved on November 3, 2011 at 11:38 AM

Good point abotu the sample. Ok, sample is not weighted, but if on believes the party id distribution, the headline should be ‘big shift toward Democrat self-id’ rather than results from other questions.

NORUK on November 3, 2011 at 11:40 AM

Let’s see how many high profile donks start to edge away. Hope Tapper asks Carney something about this today.

a capella on November 3, 2011 at 11:41 AM

It will get worse as they #occupyChristmas on “Buy Nothing Day.” I guess we shouldn’t think for a minute that they will stay home. I wonder if they will try to create violence.

bloggless on November 3, 2011 at 11:45 AM

Man, that’s a lot of old cranky pissed off suburbanites!

lorien1973 on November 3, 2011 at 11:46 AM

Let me say it one more time . . . polls produced by that organization are mathematical garbage and are designed to influence opinion not to inform. Remember, the left is not only attacking in the streets, they are attacking your minds.

rplat on November 3, 2011 at 11:47 AM

Check out the Boss Emertitus’ web site today–then ask about that Q poll again!

herm2416 on November 3, 2011 at 11:49 AM

I wish these slackers would come to my city and neighborhood.

I lived in Memphis when MLK was shot and experienced rioting firsthand.

The difference now, at least in the South, is that most would-be vicitms are armed and these clowns are not.

This is just the first phase of civil unrest that we will expeience as our country is unable to provide the money that it has previously paid under the auspices of various entitlement programs.

Get used to it.

molonlabe28 on November 3, 2011 at 11:50 AM

At first, it enjoyed a plurality of support, thanks to generous media coverage and lingering mainstream frustration over bailouts and the state of the economy.

TANGENTIAL: This is one of the main reasons I frequent HA, Ed; your ability to slice-and-dice these Bravo Sierra polls and accurately put them into the proper perspective.

..that, and the fact that you are not afraid to boycott bleeding-heart-pinko-commie-simp clothing businesses.

The War Planner on November 3, 2011 at 11:51 AM

“We are the 30%!”

MeatHeadinCA on November 3, 2011 at 11:52 AM

Remember, the left is not only attacking in the streets, they are attacking your minds.

rplat on November 3, 2011 at 11:47 AM

In large part, polls are used as a way to cover a topic, without actually talking about the topic at hand.

lorien1973 on November 3, 2011 at 11:52 AM

“The Tea Party movement gets a slightly more negative 45 – 31 percent unfavorable rating,…”

It must be all the rapes and rioting…

… Oh, wait!

Seven Percent Solution on November 3, 2011 at 11:52 AM

Cindy Munford on November 3, 2011 at 11:36 AM

I didn’t dig in to the link, but the last time this sort of poll appeared the questions were laughable.

-What is your opinion of the Tea Party? Good___ Bad___

-What is your opinion of the Occupation Movement which seeks to produce jobs for everyone, rein-in corporate criminality, stop bank bailouts, and provide free everything for everyone? Good___ Bad___

Bishop on November 3, 2011 at 11:55 AM

When all else fails…..force the math!!

Tim_CA on November 3, 2011 at 11:55 AM

The poll, released today, show 30 percent of voters surveyed view the movement favorably, 39 percent unfavorably, with an additional 30 percent not hearing enough to have an opinion

..hey, did anyone notice that that adds up to 99%?

The War Planner on November 3, 2011 at 11:55 AM

-What is your opinion of the Tea Party reactionary, right-wing Nazi, astroturfed Tea Party? Bad___ Sucks___

-What is your opinion of the Occupation Movement which seeks to produce jobs for everyone, rein-in corporate criminality, stop bank bailouts, and provide free everything for everyone? Good___ Bad___

Bishop on November 3, 2011 at 11:55 AM

FIFY

The War Planner on November 3, 2011 at 11:57 AM

Yup, last November’s election certainly showed the Tea Party’s poor showing…NOT!!! Total crock of SH*T…but it’s a POLL I guess!!!

winston on November 3, 2011 at 12:00 PM

I’m watching the live feed and Cornel West is prancing around. Well, not really prancing, he’s only 58 y/o but looks and walks 10 years older.

Blake on November 3, 2011 at 12:02 PM

Let the violence continue (and it will) let them keep hurting everyday American’s (there’s going to be collateral damage) and the great amount of tolerance the occupation has enjoyed will evaporate.

The question is how far will this go, how big will it get, how much chaos will it cause and how much benefit will that chaos provide for the left?

Maybe the loons will screw up bad enough they actually have to eat it this time.

Speakup on November 3, 2011 at 12:02 PM

Oh, and they are banging their stupid drums.

Blake on November 3, 2011 at 12:03 PM

Bishop on November 3, 2011 at 11:55 AM

I hate to break it to them but I think OWS failed it’s mission.

Cindy Munford on November 3, 2011 at 12:15 PM

If these ignorant thugs had the government they long for it would crush them like the pissants they are. I suppose that’s why they’re known as useful idiots.

darwin on November 3, 2011 at 12:19 PM

Seeing how Democrats hitched their wagon to the movement in hopes of gaining votes, proves just how far out of touch they are with average American values.

They live within their echo chamber and really do believe their socialist beliefs are popular across the land.

ButterflyDragon on November 3, 2011 at 12:35 PM

Even if you are against everything the Tea Party stands for, how can they been seen in a more negative light? It’s not like they weren’t already out there and voting accordingly and they certainly didn’t hurt anyone or anything by gathering. I don’t get it.

Cindy Munford on November 3, 2011 at 11:36 AM

It’s the MFM. They have a free pass into the unlocked backdoors of many a person’s brain, and can step in and rearrange the furniture at will. Take it from me as a former democrat who lives surrounded by democrats. They don’t know why they know the tea party is a bad thing, it just is. The t.v. told them.

perries on November 3, 2011 at 1:15 PM

It’s the MFM. They have a free pass into the unlocked backdoors of many a person’s brain, and can step in and rearrange the furniture at will. Take it from me as a former democrat who lives surrounded by democrats. They don’t know why they know the tea party is a bad thing, it just is. The t.v. told them.

perries on November 3, 2011 at 1:15 PM

What prompted you to lock the back door to your mind?

OhioCoastie on November 3, 2011 at 2:20 PM

i remember decades ago being liberal (not radical) but reading the local newspaper (left leaning) and thinking, well, if this stuff is true then we need to fix a lot of things.

shortly after (thx Jimmy) i sobered up, then realized the vast power of the press in stage managing political/cultural affairs. The old story of course is never make someone mad who buys ink by the barrel. The media mavens are mad at the US, and have plenty of ink

r keller on November 3, 2011 at 2:52 PM