Rasmussen: Cain still riding high in South Carolina

Yesterday, the Des Moines Register reported that the allegations of misconduct at a trade group in the 1990s didn’t seem to be bothering Iowa caucus-goers, although their evidence was anecdotal.  Today, Rasmussen takes a more scientific approach to another key primary state, and finds much the same thing:

Businessman Herman Cain leads the GOP field in South Carolina with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 10 points behind. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is the only other candidate with double-digit support. The survey was conducted on Tuesday night following two days of media coverage concerning allegations of sexual harassment against Cain.

In polling conducted before the latest allegations, Cain led in Iowa  with Romney second, while Romney led in New Hampshire  with Cain in second place.

The first Rasmussen Reports poll of South Carolina’s Likely Republican Primary Voters shows Cain with 33% support, Romney at 23% and Gingrich at 15%. Texas Governor Rick Perry earns nine percent (9%) of the likely primary vote, Texas Congressman Ron Paul five percent (5%) and Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann two percent (2%). Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum and former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman each pick up one percent (1%), as does “some other candidate.” Ten percent (10%) remain undecided.

It’s not that respondents didn’t know about the Politico story.  Forty-three percent say they followed it “very closely,” with another 33% “somewhat closely.”  Three quarters of respondents correctly identified Cain as the candidate at the center of the controversy.  Whatever else this says about the poll, it’s not an uninformed sample.

Maybe the bigger news here is that Romney’s running ahead of everyone else for second place — and by a wide margin.  South Carolina is considered a conservative, evangelical state in which Southerners expect to do well.  A Northeastern moderate isn’t supposed to perform well, and yet Romney is ahead of two other Southerners, Newt Gingrich (by eight) and Rick Perry (by fourteen).  Second-place finishes in Iowa and South Carolina wouldn’t be as good as wins in either or both for Romney, but they would probably be impressive enough for him to build momentum out of expected wins in New Hampshire and Michigan.

Romney gets more good news in another question asking whether his nomination would generate support for a third-party bid.  Only 13% said they would be “very likely” to vote for such a candidate, and only another 17% said “somewhat likely.”  With passions their highest as the primaries approach, that doesn’t look too bad for Romney or the GOP.

Another surprise is how poorly social conservatives Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum are faring.  Santorum never really caught fire, so his low standing is less of a surprise.  Bachmann, though, had at one time captured the attention of the Tea Party grassroots, which are particularly strong in the Palmetto State.  She’s now getting less than the margin of error in the polling.

Cain’s got support from which to draw, and it’s not running for the hills at the first attack.  Whether it sticks depends on how well Cain can do in shifting the narrative back to the campaign issues.

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