Polling bounce for Obama?

posted at 10:45 am on November 2, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

Until now, there hasn’t been much indication in national polling that Barack Obama’s embrace of class-warfare rhetoric had gained him much standing with the electorate.  On September 8, when Obama gave his jobs speech to a joint session of Congress and kicked off his new populist strategy, the Real Clear Politics poll average  for Obama’s job approval was 43.8/51.6.  Yesterday’s was 44.0/50.9, hardly any change at all, and the chart shows a more stable period than anything preceding it this year.

Today, however, Quinnipiac reports a moderate boost in Obama’s standing to 47/49, up from last month’s 41/55:

President Barack Obama’s job approval rating is up, from a negative 41 – 55 percent October 5, to a split today with 47 percent approving and 49 percent disapproving in a Quinnipiac University poll released today. The president has leads of 5 to 16 percentage points over likely Republican challengers.

Voters also are divided 47 – 49 percent on whether Obama deserves reelection, compared to last month, when voters said 54 – 42 percent he did not deserve reelection.

Not so fast, says National Journal’s Steven Shepard:

Obama “seems to be improving in voters’ eyes almost across-the-board,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “He scores big gains among the groups with whom he has had the most problems — whites and men. Women also shift from a five-point negative to a four-point positive.”

In addition to his improved approval rating, Obama also leads Romney, his closest GOP challenger, by five points, 47 percent to 42 percent, turning around a four-point deficit a month ago. Obama posts double-digit leads — and clears the crucial 50-percent threshold — over Cain (50 percent to 40 percent), Gingrich (52 percent to 37 percent) and Perry (52 percent to 36 percent).

Still, there are indications that the poll could just be a blip. There is little change in the crosstabs by party from last month, when Romney led Obama by four points. Independents broke for Romney by five points in each survey, yet, overall, there was a nine-point swing. It simply appears that this month’s sample is significantly more Democratic.

Shepard asked Quinnipiac to release their demographics in both surveys to check sampling.  So far, they haven’t responded.  However, if the results by party in both polls are identical and yet Obama gained in popularity, then Shepard is probably correct that the new sample included more Democrats at the expense of either Republicans, independents, or both.

Among Republican primary voters, Herman Cain has a significant lead over Mitt Romney, 30/23, and beats Romney 47/39 in a two-man race for the nomination.  However, almost all of this polling took place before the Politico story about two settlements over harassment claims at the National Restaurant Association.  So far that story doesn’t seem to be gaining traction among GOP primary voters and might even be attracting support for Cain as he fights the national media.  This Q-poll will serve as a pretty good baseline for future polling to determine whether Cain ends up damaged or helped by the imbroglio this week.

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I’m sticking with Rasmussen. Obama has consistently been in the negative 20%+.

sandee on November 2, 2011 at 10:50 AM

That poll is mathematical garbage and is undeserving of publication.

rplat on November 2, 2011 at 10:51 AM

Doesn’t matter, all hail dear leader
-lsm

cmsinaz on November 2, 2011 at 10:51 AM

Well, let’s see, the Republican Party has put together a primary process that does it best to have the Repub candidates shoot themselves in the head in television every chance they get

Obama is in full time campaign mode doing nothing but trashing the Repubs and reinforcing the stereo-type of Repubs hating the poor, taking money away from students and old people and giving money to the fat cats of the world and it is meaningless that most is not true because the MSM spends all its time being PR team for Obama and attack dogs on the Repubs….

Yeah….., if his numbers did not go up now they never would

georgealbert on November 2, 2011 at 10:55 AM

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

Meanwhile at Gallup Obama is at 43%/50%

He has gone up but not by much.

William Amos on November 2, 2011 at 10:55 AM

Was on RCP and was *praying* that Hot Air would cover the results.

What a disgrace. ANY poll that has Dems leading Republicans by *8* points on the Generic Congressional Vote question should immediately be thrown away.

nickj116 on November 2, 2011 at 10:56 AM


The next time they get it right will be the first time as they are one of the most biased polls out there

HAGGS99 on November 2, 2011 at 10:59 AM

I may have a simple but plausible explanation. The Occupy groups are requesting free, taxpayer funded electricity to charge their high tech devices. These devices are then used to participate in some polls. They are still supporting Obama.

bloggless on November 2, 2011 at 11:03 AM

Cain will crash and the coronation of Mitt McCain 2.0 has begun. The establishment has the books cooked. I’ll hold my nose and vote for Mitt McCain 2.0 in the general, but most conservatives will sit it out (even worse than 2008 b/c there’s no Palin VP pick to gin up the base) allowing dear leader to eek out a victory.

Pray for holding on to the House and winning the Senate.

davek70 on November 2, 2011 at 11:04 AM

Blip.

petefrt on November 2, 2011 at 11:11 AM

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html

This poll has Dems ahead by 8 points on the generic congressional ballot.

Mark1971 on November 2, 2011 at 11:11 AM

Meow.

Ack. Gasp. Kak.

Phooooooooo.

Plop.

Thump.

Bruno Strozek on November 2, 2011 at 11:13 AM

This Q-poll will serve as a pretty good baseline for future polling to determine whether Cain ends up damaged or helped by the imbroglio this week.

Like you were reading my mind.

Spooky…

JohnGalt23 on November 2, 2011 at 11:24 AM

Polls. Pfffffft. To early to get any clear picture, and most of them are biased towards dems. So of course the picture always looks rosey for them.

Why isn’t this being reported?

http://investmentwatchblog.com/unconstitutional-obama-regime-to-cut-off-all-tv-radio-broadcasts-on-november-9th-2011/

capejasmine on November 2, 2011 at 11:25 AM

What a disgrace. ANY poll that has Dems leading Republicans by *8* points on the Generic Congressional Vote question should immediately be thrown away.

nickj116 on November 2, 2011 at 10:56 AM

As much as I dislike the “That poll reports results I don’t like, so it must be fixed” game…

… a spread that far out of kilter with all the other data out there sure would make me at least take a look at my sample, and see if there was something fishy there.

JohnGalt23 on November 2, 2011 at 11:28 AM

Polls had Angle up over Reid by 6 on election day. Look how well that worked out. It just told seiu how many buses they would need.

Kissmygrits on November 2, 2011 at 11:36 AM

Thank the GOP primary nihilism. Of course, Obama looks better to independents after watching this charade.

Its embarrassing to watch Perrywinkles, in the name of conservatism, celebrate Santorum and Perry turn debates into rude, immature, shouting matches. Yet, these clowns proclaim that Perry ripped Romney’s heart out, made him bleed, and Romney “unquestionably” lost. Polls show this is wrong.

That faction is making themselves and the conservative movment look like a bunch of jackholes.

Time to start focusing and rewarding the adults in the room.

swamp_yankee on November 2, 2011 at 11:41 AM

Polls had Angle up over Reid by 6 on election day. Look how well that worked out. It just told seiu how many buses they would need.

Kissmygrits on November 2, 2011 at 11:36 AM

I don’t trust Quinnipac. Never have. They were really far off in 2008. They are very left-leaning.

Voter from WA State on November 2, 2011 at 11:38 AM

..a couple of things:

QP is also cited here on HA when it shows Obama polling inordinately low as well. Can you spell “Outlier” boys and girls?

And this sort of stuff is a narcotic for the Dems. A lot will figure he’s “doing o.k.” and figure he does not need the energy expended. It also causes our sphincter to pucker down to f16 — and we work harder.

The War Planner on November 2, 2011 at 11:50 AM

Why isn’t this being reported?

http://investmentwatchblog.com/unconstitutional-obama-regime-to-cut-off-all-tv-radio-broadcasts-on-november-9th-2011/

capejasmine on November 2, 2011 at 11:25 AM

Yes. I’d only heard it on the radio as just an “announcement”. Struck me as some mighty big creepy bigbrotherism.

whatcat on November 2, 2011 at 11:50 AM

The fact that it can even be close, when our country is being taken from us in a Marxist coup, should give everyone pause. Roughly half the country either doesn’t understand what’s going on, or approves of it.

IronDioPriest on November 2, 2011 at 11:51 AM

I never thought the nation would elect Obama the first time, so I take these polls seriously.
The fact that the conservative are allowing he MSM to dictate the policies and who they attack…”as long as they don’t attack the person I am supporting”…than his poll numbers will be strong.
When they decide one week to attack Perry, and the anti-Perry hop on that bandwagon, then the next week it’s Cain, and the anti-Cain hop on that, you will have strong Obama numbers.
The conservatives have a hard time standing up to and demanding factual reporting from the MSM (who is fed by Obama administration), as long as their candidate (that week) is not being attacked.
They know how to manipulate the conservative mind…they just pick off one at a time.

right2bright on November 2, 2011 at 11:51 AM

OT: We just set our Primary Date here in New Hampshire. January 10th.

Del Dolemonte on November 2, 2011 at 11:53 AM

Its embarrassing to watch Perrywinkles, in the name of conservatism, celebrate Santorum and Perry turn debates into rude, immature, shouting matches. Yet, these clowns proclaim that Perry ripped Romney’s heart out, made him bleed, and Romney “unquestionably” lost. Polls show this is wrong.

Time to start focusing and rewarding the adults in the room.

swamp_yankee on November 2, 2011 at 11:41 AM

Once more: Ausgezeichnet!

..and once again, I implore you to send me your address so I can send that case of beer to you!

The War Planner on November 2, 2011 at 11:53 AM

Any Republican or conservative who sits the election out because they dont like Romney (if nominated)might as well join the Socialist Democrat Party. Supporting four more years of Obama by not voting against him in 2012 is tantamount to treason.

ObamatheMessiah on November 2, 2011 at 11:56 AM

The War Planner on November 2, 2011 at 11:53 AM

Mmmmmmmmmm. Beer.

swamp_yankee on November 2, 2011 at 12:07 PM

If your surname isn’t “Obama, Axelrod or Plouffe” and you approve of the job this clown is doing, then you sir are a complete idiot.

That’s all I have to say.

NoDonkey on November 2, 2011 at 12:40 PM

This poll has Dems ahead by 8 points on the generic congressional ballot.

Mark1971 on November 2, 2011 at 11:11 AM

Which means the Dems are likely to take back the House (as all seats are up every 2 years)… interesting.

http://intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=639651

For $2.84 you can buy an intrade share that pays $10 if the Dems take back the House; more than tripling your money.

Curious that you’d get 3:1 odds for the “probable” outcome… I have to suspect maybe this poll isn’t exactly accurate. That or there is a lot of money to be made on intrade right now.

gekkobear on November 2, 2011 at 1:12 PM

I wonder how things are going to get if he is elected again and has at least one Demo house.

Shangri La

Escape From New York

IlikedAUH2O on November 2, 2011 at 1:54 PM