Poll: Democrats’ recall effort against Scott Walker looking mighty weak

posted at 7:20 pm on October 26, 2011 by Allahpundit

Good news in the abstract, but is it good news right now?

Walker’s still not popular- 47% of voters approve of him, compared to 51% who disapprove. But those numbers represent continuing improvement over the course of the year. He hit his lowest point in PPP’s polling in May at 43/54. By August he’d improved to 45/53, and now that improvement has continued over the last couple months. Republicans continue to stand pretty uniformly behind Walker, and Democrats pretty uniformly against him. Where the shift is occurring is with independents. In May only 40% approved of him with 56% disapproving. Now those numbers are almost flipped with 52% approving to 44% who disapprove.

Walker’s not out of the woods by any means. 48% of voters in the state want to recall him, while 49% are opposed to such a move. But it’s not clear if Democrats will have a candidate strong enough to unseat Walker. The only one who beats him in a hypothetical recall is Russ Feingold. But Feingold’s already said he’s probably not going to run, and his margin over Walker is just 3 points at 49-46. In May Feingold led Walker 52-42 and in August Feingold had a 52-45 advantage. So even with their strongest possible candidate Democrats’ prospects against Walker are slipping…

Here’s something to keep in mind though: in all of the State Senate elections we were polling over the summer, public opinion moved against recall in the closing days.

That’s from PPP, a.k.a. Kos’s pollster, so this isn’t a case of a conservative polling outfit concern-trolling liberals about how another pesky recall effort might backfire. This is a bona fide heads up to the true believers, with good reason. Not only is the outrageous outrage over the collective bargaining bill fated to cool over time, as success stories bubble up in the news and centrist voters realize that the blue-collar apocalypse isn’t at hand, but it turns out a loophole in Wisconsin law will allow Walker to raise unlimited funds for two months to fight the recall effort starting in November. He’ll be armed to the teeth financially, in other words, and Republicans who turned out in droves to re-elect David Prosser in the face of a liberal onslaught will be even more motivated to protect the GOP’s newest hero.

Meanwhile, thanks to the “Occupy” movement, the left no longer has as much riding on Wisconsin as it once did. When I wrote about this two weeks ago, I thought the excitement over OWS and grassroots liberalism would compel them to try to take down their archnemesis Walker regardless of how prudent that might be. Now, though, I’m wondering if OWS won’t have the opposite effect by turning Wisconsin into yesterday’s news. The left has already spent a ton of money there trying to beat Prosser and retake the state senate and it failed in both tries. Unless a big name like Feingold gets in, they’re probably going to whiff again in their showdown with Walker. Now that they’ve got a way to flex their muscle nationally instead of staging sit-ins at the capitol in Madison, why not cut their losses and apply the “get Walker!” money to OWS (or Obama) instead? I’m asking earnestly. No concern-trolling, scout’s honor.

But back to the question I posed up top. Don’t we want the left to try this, given how likely they are to suffer another humiliating defeat? Alas, the PPP poll will only discourage them. Or is that a good thing, given the amount of Republican money that’ll be diverted to this race instead of being spent to defeat Obama?

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Glad to hear it. Walker has cajones.

carbon_footprint on October 26, 2011 at 7:22 PM

Don’t we want the left to try this, given how likely they are to suffer another humiliating defeat?

Yes. I want to see the left driven before me and hear the lamentations of their fugly women. Plus it will be a snapshot of where their intensity level is at that moment in time.

Kataklysmic on October 26, 2011 at 7:25 PM

as long as humpbot is invited, let’s roll!

cmsinaz on October 26, 2011 at 7:26 PM

What does this have to do with Scott Huntsman…?

/

Seven Percent Solution on October 26, 2011 at 7:28 PM

Attention Mitt Romney: It is safe to support Scott Walker’s union reforms next time you’re in Wisconsin, they are polling much better than Ohio’s similar measures.

Lawdawg86 on October 26, 2011 at 7:28 PM

Meanwhile, we’re headed for a rout of biblical proportions in Ohio that’s probably going to destroy the governorship of John Kasich and kill us in 2012. And it includes the possibility of factions in our own party deliberately sabotaging our efforts.

Attentive posters following the Romney/Ohio story know this well. Maybe instead of more talk of our total victory in Wisconsin, we can chat a bit about Ohio?

KingGold on October 26, 2011 at 7:30 PM

I don’t know, looking for a chance to gloat always has the potential to blow up.

Cindy Munford on October 26, 2011 at 7:31 PM

KingGold on October 26, 2011 at 7:30 PM

I hadn’t heard of Ohio before this week. I’d like to know more too.

El_Terrible on October 26, 2011 at 7:32 PM

Glad to hear it. Walker has cajones.

carbon_footprint on October 26, 2011 at 7:22 PM

Mittness should ask to borrow one from him.

AH_C on October 26, 2011 at 7:36 PM

Don’t we want the left to try this, given how likely they are to suffer another humiliating defeat?
Yes. I want to see the left driven before me and hear the lamentations of their fugly women. Plus it will be a snapshot of where their intensity level is at that moment in time.

Kataklysmic on October 26, 2011 at 7:25 PM

YES YES YES…because everytime they throw all their money at it and lose..they lose MONEY, POWER, FACE, and SUPPORT…and all that moves “Across the Aisle”.

RedLizard64 on October 26, 2011 at 7:37 PM

KingGold on October 26, 2011 at 7:30 PM

It does have a smell to it. Sounds like the chair of the state GOP is running a game on Kasich. I still don’t understand why the Ohio voters prefer insolvency. They can’t all be public union members.

a capella on October 26, 2011 at 7:38 PM

Attentive posters following the Romney/Ohio story know this well. Maybe instead of more talk of our total victory in Wisconsin, we can chat a bit about Ohio?

KingGold on October 26, 2011 at 7:30 PM

All I saw in that story was a bunch of spin trying to protect Romney. Let me get the logic of this straight: according to Business Insider, Kevin DeWine wanted to show off his influence with the national GOP (aka Mitt Romney) and he wanted to embarrass Gov. Kasich at the same time… so he humiliated Romney to marginally embarrass Kasich???

And how exactly was it that DeWine “set up” Romney? Was Romney unaware of the ballot initiative? Did he not know he was going to a call center and would inevitably be asked about Issue 2? I mean, I just don’t see how this is possible unless all of Romney’s aides ditched him at the Ohio border, DeWine picked him up, blindfolded and earmuffed him, and then drove him straight to the call center.

You’re in denial about Mitt’s flip-flop-flip if you believe that Business Insider story.

Lawdawg86 on October 26, 2011 at 7:43 PM

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canopfor on October 26, 2011 at 7:46 PM

You’re in denial about Mitt’s flip-flop-flip if you believe that Business Insider story.

Lawdawg86 on October 26, 2011 at 7:43 PM

Romney flipflopping, and the Ohio GOP chair being a backstabbing jackass who’s helping out the unions to bring down Kasich, are not mutually exclusive.

If the story’s even remotely true, there ought to be hell to pay in the higher echelons of the Ohio GOP.

KingGold on October 26, 2011 at 7:48 PM

Oh man,Vindictive BitterNess……

they name is Wisconsin Teacher Union!!!

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canopfor on October 26, 2011 at 7:51 PM

Let ‘em spend the money. The more, the better, because that will be less for Barry next year.

GarandFan on October 26, 2011 at 7:52 PM

WI. News!
———

Local Political News
**********************

Election Chief Discusses Recalls With Senators
Senator Defends Sweeping Changes To Water Permits
Committee Passes Bill Expanding Charter Schools
Groups Launch Ad Supporting Walker’s Budget
Madison Officials Release Concealed Carry Guidelines
Assembly OKs New NR Board Requirements
Assembly OKs Longer Hours For Liquor Sales
Democrats Rally Support For Walker Recall
Environmental Advocates Speak Out Against Bill
Bill Would Limit Attorney Fee Judgments
National/World Political News
==============================

http://www.channel3000.com/politics/index.html

canopfor on October 26, 2011 at 7:55 PM

I would think it was pretty funny if they couldn’t get enough signatures. Didn’t I read that Gov. Walker can raise unlimited money to fight this little maneuver?

Cindy Munford on October 26, 2011 at 7:58 PM

But back to the question I posed up top. Don’t we want the left to try this, given how likely they are to suffer another humiliating defeat?
=============

Why yes,let’em Liberaly hang Dem selves!

canopfor on October 26, 2011 at 7:59 PM

I would think it was pretty funny if they couldn’t get enough signatures. Didn’t I read that Gov. Walker can raise unlimited money to fight this little maneuver?

Cindy Munford on October 26, 2011 at 7:58 PM

Cindy Munford:Found this!:)
============================

Walker could raise unlimited cash to fight recall
Oct 13 2011
************

A rarely-talked-about exception in the state’s campaign finance laws would let donors give unlimited cash to help Gov. Scott Walker beat back a possible recall election.

Historically this has not been much of an issue. Before this year, the state dealt with only a handful of recall elections, none as large as the effort against Walker could be.

Election watchdogs are predicting this recall, if it goes to an election, could shatter state campaign fundraising numbers.

“It’s hard to imagine that it won’t be more than the $44 million spent this summer for the nine Senate recalls,” said Mike McCabe, executive director of the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign. “How much more, I don’t know. But it will be big.”

The Democratic Party of Wisconsin unveiled plans earlier this week to begin the recall effort Nov. 15, and the petitions would be due by Jan. 17. GAB has to review the signatures to make sure they are valid and deal with challenges before it can officially call for an election, the earliest of which is expected to be March. Then there is a likelihood of court challenges.
(More…..)
==============

http://www.wiscnews.com/bdc/news/local/article_c4512f86-f615-11e0-ab13-001cc4c002e0.html

canopfor on October 26, 2011 at 8:06 PM

KingGold on October 26, 2011 at 7:48 PM

Agreed. I just don’t buy the Romney angle, particularly the part about how DeWine invited Romney to the state to show off his influence… and then humiliated him just to tweak Kasich. Romney has a better-than-even chance of being the GOP nominee and next President, no state Republican chairman (and particularly not one already in the Romney camp) would risk humiliating the frontrunner for the nomination (who will effectively control the RNC next year) just to marginally injure a party rival in the same state.

I don’t doubt that there are probably tensions between DeWine and Kasich, but that story in Business Insider is a load of malarkey that is attempting to use whatever split there is between DeWine and Kasich to explain Mitt’s waffling yesterday.

Lawdawg86 on October 26, 2011 at 8:10 PM

Praise the Lord. Walker is gold. And meanwhile, good fiscal reports have begun to come in, proof of the soundness of Walker’s policies.

paul1149 on October 26, 2011 at 8:10 PM

Attention Mitt Romney: It is safe to support Scott Walker’s union reforms next time you’re in Wisconsin, they are polling much better than Ohio’s similar measures.
Lawdawg86 on October 26, 2011 at 7:28 PM

Heh. I was just about to note how Mitt Romney was onboard with Scott Walker from the beginning. Here are the facts, Champ:

Read this. And this. If you follow the thread from the last link you’ll see multiple examples of Mitt supporting Walker. I’d relink to all of them but alas Hot Air limits how many links you can provide in one comment.

Buy Danish on October 26, 2011 at 8:13 PM

Now that the professional bongo-bangers and vuvuzela puffers have moved out of state, things have mellowed considerably for the short-memoried (and low-information) voters. Sure, they got worked up by all the screeching and wailing, but didn’t understand at the time why all the hullabaloo. Now that the wailing has subsided, the pedestrian voter is back to their usual slumber… And that ain’t going to be helpful to the commies and freeloaders trying to overturn the 2010 gubernatorial election.

The moonbats and commies still drive around with their soviet fist emblems and “recall Walker” bumper stickers, but that percentage of parasites is irredeemable, and never voted for Walker in the first place. He’ll be fine.

And if the Ohio referendum isn’t ratified, they deserve what they get.

roscopico on October 26, 2011 at 8:15 PM

P.S. I welcome comments from those of you who take the time to pursue the truth and not remain forever stuck in your own tedious preconceptions. I’ll be back after dinner to see how you’ve responded to the facts of the matter.

Buy Danish on October 26, 2011 at 8:15 PM

Let em’ try.
Then watch them cry.

Then we will all laugh.

NeoKong on October 26, 2011 at 8:16 PM

Buy Danish on October 26, 2011 at 8:13 PM

Lawdawg’s Walker comment was, I’m almost certain, a joke. You know, because Romney’s position on union reforms is so “fluid” these days.

George Will called it a “versatility of conviction.”

KingGold on October 26, 2011 at 8:20 PM

, public opinion moved against recall in the closing days.

Funny how that works isn’t it??

‘Hey, let’s try and be accurate now because the only thing in the whole wide world that can hold our polling methods accountable…people actually voting..is only a few weeks away.’

Polls and pollsters are Dog$hit……

BigWyo on October 26, 2011 at 8:29 PM

New ad showing Wisconsin budget success’s

And Gov. Walker’s Reforms and Results web site

Interesting if you want to take a peek.

WhoU4 on October 26, 2011 at 8:41 PM

Lawdawg’s Walker comment was, I’m almost certain, a joke. You know, because Romney’s position on union reforms is so “fluid” these days.
George Will called it a “versatility of conviction.”
KingGold on October 26, 2011 at 8:20 PM

But it’s not fluid. That’s the point. Did you check out the links I provided?

Buy Danish on October 26, 2011 at 9:05 PM

Wisconsinites didn’t even want to send Feingold back to the Senate. Why in the world would they tap him to run their state?

SukieTawdry on October 26, 2011 at 9:10 PM

…but it turns out a loophole in Wisconsin law will allow Walker to raise unlimited funds for two months to fight the recall effort starting in November.

3 months, actually. The clock on “unlimited” fundraising/spending (to counter the unlimited fundraising/spending the Democrat Party of Wisconsin will be able to do to conduct the recall petition effort) doesn’t end until the Government Accountability Board certifies whether there is enough signatures. Of course, any funds raised above the $10K per person per year limit that still exist when the clock runs out have to go toward legal challenges (which is also unlimited), refunded to the donor, or (if memory serves, at least) shuffled off to a PAC.

As for the entry/exit question, neither the PPP downtwinkle nor my Green Room hack of the numbers, which shows the odds are worse than PPP lets on, will discourage the DPW. This truly is their last gasp, and they’re hoping to replicate what is likely going to happen in Ohio next Tuesday.

Steve Eggleston on October 26, 2011 at 9:27 PM

Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Shame! Shame! Shame! It’s Working.
.
Recall Walker!

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canopfor on October 26, 2011 at 9:47 PM

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canopfor on October 26, 2011 at 9:51 PM

Knucklehead on October 26, 2011 at 7:30 PM

Thanks for the plug. As always, I’m a bit cash-poor :-)

Steve Eggleston on October 26, 2011 at 10:10 PM

KingGold on October 26, 2011 at 8:20 PM

I re-read Lawdawg’s comment. He was not joking. He was certain that Romney would not have supported Walker. It would be nice if he could acknowledge his error, but that’s like asking Obama to admit any faults.

Buy Danish on October 26, 2011 at 10:29 PM

A little known fact: In the Senate recall elections, the Dem candidates did NOT want to run on the collective bargaining law. They completely avoided the issue, probably figuring that there were no new votes on that topic and instead ran against one incumbent Republican who was going through a messy divorce after an ugly affair and another Republican who was in a heavily-Dem district anyway.

So what are they going to say in a recall race against Walker? I just don’t see that as being a successful campaign. And truth be told, Wisconites are pretty much sick and tired of the whole recall nonsense anyway. They don’t like seeing public funds being spent on a new set of elections right after they got done with a different set of elections.

If the Dems were smart, they would fall “just short” of the signatures needed for the recall, but instead use the signature list as a donors database for other 2012 elections.

PackerBronco on October 26, 2011 at 11:25 PM

So what are they going to say in a recall race against Walker? I just don’t see that as being a successful campaign. And truth be told, Wisconites are pretty much sick and tired of the whole recall nonsense anyway. They don’t like seeing public funds being spent on a new set of elections right after they got done with a different set of elections.

If the Dems were smart, they would fall “just short” of the signatures needed for the recall, but instead use the signature list as a donors database for other 2012 elections.

PackerBronco on October 26, 2011 at 11:25 PM

If they’re stupid enough to be successful in turning in enough signatures to trigger an election, they’ll do the same tired “tax, eat, kill the rich” Bravo Sierra they always run. EVERY ‘Rat ad over the summer featured the “they’re taking $800 million away from the ‘teachers’ to give to the ‘rich’” horse manure, even in the 3 districts where the Dems were targeted for recall.

I’m sure they’ll use the list as a donor database; they just won’t be smart enough to realize that if they get enough signatures to force an election but fail to oust Walker, he’s immune from further recall until after the 2014 election.

Steve Eggleston on October 26, 2011 at 11:41 PM

This is a win win for the conservative movement. If they recall Walker then some crazy lib will get in there and spend the state into bankruptcy. If he doesn’t then the union goons will have spent all that time and money for nothing.

Africanus on October 26, 2011 at 11:50 PM

I live in Wisconsin. I’m looking forward to signing as many recall petitions as I can find. My friends Daffy Duck, Bugs Bunny, and Yosemite Sam also plan to sign early and often.

Metanis on October 27, 2011 at 10:02 AM

On my way to work in a non-union job, that doesn’t have healthcare or other benefits. But glad I have the job. Can’t wait to read this thread tonight. I hope people are opening up their eyes and their minds. It’s about time we put a stake in the heart of Wi progressivism. I will be whistling at work today.

wi farmgirl on October 27, 2011 at 1:33 PM