CNN poll: Romney leads in … all four early states; Update: Cain leads Romney in national Fox News poll

posted at 9:14 pm on October 26, 2011 by Allahpundit

Even an eeyore like me wasn’t prepared for the sheer despair generated by these numbers. Bad enough to nominate Romney by default after the rest of the field flames out, but … to let him run the table? Says Philip Klein, “[T]ogether, the candidates are uninspiring, unserious, unprepared, dishonest, unreliable, inexperienced, inconsistent or ideologically malleable. Not one of them seems up to the task at hand.” True — but surely there’s one Not Romney in the bunch who’s sufficiently up to the task to win one state. Isn’t there?

Serious question: If the architect of RomneyCare and Great Centrist Hope runs the table, what’s left of the tea party as a national political movement? It’s one thing to say, “You can’t beat a well-funded, well-organized establishment candidate in a long race,” but you should be able to beat them somewhere. If you can’t, what’s left?

In Iowa, which will hold its caucuses on January 3 and is traditionally the first state to vote in the race for the nomination, 24% of registered Republicans say they are backing Romney, who’s making his second bid for the presidency, with Cain, the former Godfather’s Pizza CEO and radio talk show host, at 21%. Romney’s three point margin is within the survey’s sampling error…

It’s a dead heat in South Carolina, which will hold its primary on Jan. 21 and traditionally is the first southern state to vote along the road to the White House. According to the poll in the Palmetto State, Romney has the support of 25% of self-identified Republicans or independents who lean towards the GOP, with Cain at 23%. Romney’s two-point margin is well within the survey’s sampling error…

Florida will hold its primary on January 31, voting fourth in the primary and caucus calendar. According to the poll, three out of ten Republicans say they back Romney, with Cain at 18%. Gingrich and Perry each grab 9% support, with Paul at 6%, Bachmann at 4%, and Huntsman and Santorum at 1%.

Meanwhile, in New Hampshire, he leads by 27. Granted, that’s the only one of the four where his lead is commanding, and granted, only a third or so of voters in each state say that their minds are made up, so there’s still lots of room for movement. But consider two things. One: This could be a sign that the Cain surge is starting to fade. I think he’ll be in the top tier for the rest of the race, but being top-tier and actually winning primaries are two different things. The last few polls out of Iowa had Cain ahead by anywhere from seven to 10 points; now suddenly he’s down to 21 percent again. (His numbers have dropped in South Carolina too.) Maybe last week’s abortion and Gitmo gaffes have finally started to bite. Two: The best Perry does in any of these states is 11 percent in South Carolina, which was supposed to be his southern stronghold. He’s fourth there, trailing Romney, Cain, and Ron Paul, with Gingrich just three points behind him. The closest he gets to second place in any of these is … nine points. If I’m right about Cain sticking around the top tier and if, as expected, Gingrich continues to impress at debates, there’s no way to avoid a deep split among the Not Romney vote. How does Perry manage that?

Here’s Huntsman, who tops out at six percent in New Hampshire and one percent everywhere else, dumping on Romney for “leading from behind.” Counterintuitive exit question: Is there a silver lining for Romney critics insofar as the Iowa numbers might force him to compete there? His nightmare scenario is thinking he can stun the field by winning Iowa, pouring in lots of money to make it happen, and then finishing a crushingly disappointing second behind some grassroots darling like Cain. (It’s happened before, you might remember.) He might not be able to resist gambling on it if the polls keep up like this.

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Update: Good news for Cainiacs: The Cain Train hasn’t been derailed yet. The bad news? National polls don’t matter compared to state polls. They’re fun as a proxy for popular support, but if Romney wins Iowa on January 3, the race is over no matter what his national numbers are that day.

A Fox News poll released Wednesday shows support for Cain has quadrupled among GOP primary voters since late August. At that time, he stood at 6 percent. After three September debates, he jumped to 17 percent. And now Cain leads the pack at 24 percent.

While it’s the first time Romney has trailed Cain, it’s the second time he’s been ousted from the lead since July. Romney receives 20 percent — a new low for him. That’s down from 23 percent last month and a high of 26 percent in early August.

Newt Gingrich now comes in third with 12 percent — edging out Rick Perry. The former speaker — like Cain — has seen his support quadruple since late August.

Perry’s support has dropped to 10 percent, down from 19 percent in September.

That flat-tax idea had better catch on quick-like. Especially since Cain just landed the most coveted endorsement of all.

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We’d sure like some links to all these come aparts that Romney has had. I’ve watched every debate and if you can find more than one, then you just aren’t paying attention to the times he handled himself with poise and professionalism.

csdeven on October 26, 2011 at 11:14 PM

Oh, gee, sport, gosh. You might want to check out the last debate, the one I’ve referenced about 5 or 6 times on this thread. You know the one I’m talking about, the one where Perry went after Romney over Romney’s hiring of illegal aliens to mow his lawn and then started talking over poor Mitt, taking up Mitt’s time and getting downright rude and breaking all the rules and not being a gentleman at all until Mitt just couldn’t take it anymore and started calling out for intercession by the moderator. That debate. Surely you saw it. Mitt was all upset.

By the way, csdeven, aren’t you the guy who attacked Palin for three years running? What, was Romney your one true love the whole time? Were you worried she might threaten your hero’s chances?

troyriser_gopftw on October 26, 2011 at 11:24 PM

troyriser_gopftw on October 26, 2011 at 11:24 PM

Focus groups say otherwise.

Buy Danish on October 26, 2011 at 11:38 PM

Self-selected surveyists. “Hi, I’m calling for a CNN poll.” Click. Dial tone.

TWG78 on October 26, 2011 at 11:41 PM

hoping Perry comes alive – he is our hope to get rid of ROmney!

Bullhead on October 26, 2011 at 11:59 PM

csdeven on October 26, 2011 at 10:31 PM

Is that how you people defend Mitt? By tearing down everyone else – EVEN Reagan?

Name one key Conservative issue Romney has not played both sides on and been a consistent advocate for throughout his career.

we’ll compare the Conservative credentials and leadership of Reagan and anyone in the primary minus Huntsman to see how Mitt holds up.

Now you can go back trying to tear down Reagan’s record in a futile attempt to convince us that we are somehow being too hard on Mitt. Name that one key Conservative issue he has not played both sides of and been a strong advocate for.

Daemonocracy on October 27, 2011 at 12:00 AM

The bad news? National polls don’t matter compared to state polls. They’re fun as a proxy for popular support, but if Romney wins Iowa on January 3, the race is over no matter what his national numbers are that day.

In Eeyoreland, perhaps. In the real world, for better or for worse, it’s very plausible that Romney could win Iowa and New Hampshire and lose the nomination, as the GOP primary has been adjusted to give a proportionate number of delegates.

The early races could simply solidify support behind either Cain or Perry, with people abandoning their favorite to support the Not Romney in second place.

It’s not like previous primaries where the Republican who wins two of the first three is a cascading runaway. The media will be declaring Romney the victor, but he (alone among politicians of all stripes) won’t be helped much by that.

HitNRun on October 27, 2011 at 12:04 AM

CNN poll comes from the most unbiased news channel in the history of mankind.
HC has a brilliant campaign — I predict more surging.
Herman Cain…Herman Cain…Herman Cain!

balkanmom on October 27, 2011 at 12:30 AM

Very salient Forbes article mentioned elsewhere here.

Here’s a meaty excerpt:

…This is the power of the new force (Tea Party). It can grab a third-tier candidate (Cain) by his lapels and put him on top. And the new force is seeking the most electable radical it can find, not the pol patiently waiting in the wings. They want a 21st century reformer who will take on the mid-20th century entitlement state, not a tinkerer trying to keep alive a consensus formed before many of them could vote.

The majority of sensible GOP voters dislike phony plastic politicians (which is why many didn’t bother to even vote); we’ve had almost 3 years of the soviet-plastic model bent on destroying/neutering the nation, and we’re not eager to accept a slick plastic Massachusetts Ken doll unless we have to. Cain is authentic and a non-politician, and to me those are positive attributes at the moment.

The GOP has let us down, we’re not going to automatically take their chosen darling, thank you.

E-R (Former Fred Thompson supporter in ’08)

electric-rascal on October 27, 2011 at 12:31 AM

Fix to above:

(which is why many didn’t bother to even vote in 2008)

electric-rascal on October 27, 2011 at 12:32 AM

In Eeyoreland, perhaps. In the real world, for better or for worse, it’s very plausible that Romney could win Iowa and New Hampshire and lose the nomination, as the GOP primary has been adjusted to give a proportionate number of delegates.

The early races could simply solidify support behind either Cain or Perry, with people abandoning their favorite to support the Not Romney in second place.

It’s not like previous primaries where the Republican who wins two of the first three is a cascading runaway. The media will be declaring Romney the victor, but he (alone among politicians of all stripes) won’t be helped much by that.

HitNRun on October 27, 2011 at 12:04 AM

Not all the states are going proportional. Florida, NY, Pennsylvania and California are still winner take all, and they favor Romney. The states a Not-Romney could easily win would be in the South, and several of those states are proportional.

The math favors Romney.

haner on October 27, 2011 at 12:52 AM

troyriser_gopftw on October 26, 2011 at 11:24 PM

You think he looked bad but the focus group and the polling prove otherwise. But you are certainly entitled to your imaginary beliefs.

I insisted that Palin was not electable, but it wouldn’t matter because there was no way she would run. She respects Americans too much to think they were dumb enough to nominate someone the dems would excoriate as a quitter. As it turns out, I, and many other rational folks, were 100% correct and the delusional wing of the St Palin the Victimized congregation were 100% wrong.

csdeven on October 27, 2011 at 12:57 AM

Daemonocracy on October 27, 2011 at 12:00 AM

Name one bill that was referenced that Reagan did not sign. Go ahead, we’ll wait.

csdeven on October 27, 2011 at 12:59 AM

Serious question: If the architect of RomneyCare and Great Centrist Hope runs the table, what’s left of the tea party as a national political movement?

Serious question for you Allahpundit: Did the individual mandate originate with the Heritage Foundation or not?

Hint: The architect of RomneyCare was not Romney.

Conservative Samizdat on October 27, 2011 at 1:58 AM

For all my favorite HA posters read these:

Here is what Heritage/Romney proposed NOT what was created
MA Healthcare Law explained:
http://www.heritage.org/research/commentary/2006/01/mitts-fit

Romney Strategic Advantages
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-romneys-strategic-advantages_604015.html?nopager=1

Romney has the organization and the cash to go the distance. Many of you forget also that it takes funds and a certain amount of signatures to register in EVERY state. Because Romney is a smart businessman and has the executive experience he KNOWS what it takes to run a smooth campaign and some of these candidates are too new to the national stage to figure all this out on the fly. Romney will smack Obama around in the debates because Obama without his script telling him what to say he cannot speak extemporaneously and Romney can speak to any subject with knowledge and competence.

Romney will be a great POTUS and many hopefully will come back here and say they were mistaken in their comments about him.

g2825m on October 27, 2011 at 2:49 AM

The GOP is clearly 75% Conservative – that’s why Mitt can only top out at 25% support. The rest is split out amongst several other candidates. If you only had one conservative vs Mitt – then Mitt would lose to the 75%.

Since we don’t have on Conservative candidate – the 75% is spilt and a guy like Mitt could win. That would make him a serious minority nominee of the party and with that much dissatisfaction with the nominee – you’ll get a third party run.

That’s the thing about you Mitten’s people – you don’t understand – lose now or lose later. You might get your boy nominated – but he’ll be cut off at the knees in the general by someone like Sarah Palin.

You can bank that. You cannot subvert the will of 75% of this party – especially after the McCain experience.

Go ahead and try though – you’ll see. ;)

HondaV65 on October 26, 2011 at 10:04 PM

Honda I think you misread the amount of conservatives that fall into the camp that are LIKE US…those that follow politics closely and are on the HA, Townhall, Drudge, RedState, etc…
Overall, the country is more conservative than liberal and that is why Romney looks good to many voters because they are too busy with their lives to see all the inner workings of campaigns. Most people will look and see what Obama has done the last 3-4 years and then will see that a candidate like Romney has business/executive experience, saved the Olympics, saved hundreds of other companies and will pull the lever for him. This is how Independents see the race as well…THIS is why Romney leads in many polls because there are NOT enough people like us that follow it day in and day out and this is why I think many of you know that Romney will be the guy…besides he will be 100xTimes better than Obama.

g2825m on October 27, 2011 at 3:03 AM

I’m sorry man – but Mitt Romney is going to get a third party challenger if he can’t EARN more than 25% of the GOP vote.

You can bank that.

HondaV65 on October 26, 2011 at 10:31 PM

All this talk of winning with 25% of the vote seems extremely academic. Is there any reason to think that most candidates won’t drop out after the first few rounds of primaries, like they’ve generally done before? Then it’s a two-man race, which I’d guess would be between Romney and someone more conservative. People will likely coalesce around one of them, depending on whether or not the other guy has his act together. Then they win more than 50% of the votes until the last opponent drops out, and gain more or less 100% of the not-Ron Paul votes from then on, which would at least partially make up for the low percentage early in the race.

However, I could be totally off – I haven’t looked at numbers for raw vote totals from earlier primaries.

Has anyone actually won with anywhere close to as little as 25%?
This is an honest question, maybe this has happened before – I’m not very knowledgeable on these things. But it doesn’t seem likely.

RINO in Name Only on October 27, 2011 at 3:30 AM

Florida is proportionate distribution of delegates because of being before March 6, and only half value because of leap-frogging into January.

Cain has virtually no organization. It’s so haphazard even the local volunteers complain. Perry has the money, maybe not the traction. One of them needs to step up and solve his problems fast, or it is Romney by default.

Adjoran on October 27, 2011 at 6:19 AM

Medved gave a pretty solid endorsement of Mitt on his show yesterday. I didn’t get to hear it all, but one of the features of his analysis was that conservatives have this inexplicable habit of asking their primary candidates a question which has no real point, and then destroying them because they don’t answer it right.

His example was “abortion in the case of incest or rape” — why would a Presidential candidate need to have a position on this and spend valuable energy in a primary discussing it?

Someone, anyone, explain why. Let’s focus on reality instead: economy, spending, jobs, over-regulation…end of discussion.

Jaibones on October 27, 2011 at 6:30 AM

besides he will be 100xTimes better than Obama.

g2825m on October 27, 2011 at 3:03 AM

My pet rock from high school is better than Obama.

Answer me this: Why should a majority Conservative, Center-right nation, have to settle for a Stick-My-Finger-in-the Wind-to-Make-a-Decision, Center-Center candidate?

kingsjester on October 27, 2011 at 7:02 AM

kingsjester on October 27, 2011 at 7:02 AM

i fear we are going to snatch defeat if Mitt is the nominee

*sigh*

cmsinaz on October 27, 2011 at 7:15 AM

cmsinaz on October 27, 2011 at 7:15 AM

Exactly. Read today’s effort when you get a chance.

kingsjester on October 27, 2011 at 7:20 AM

kingsjester on October 27, 2011 at 7:20 AM

good one KJ…

utter failure of this man and people are too short sighted to see it…

cmsinaz on October 27, 2011 at 7:34 AM

cmsinaz on October 27, 2011 at 7:34 AM

Thank you, ma’am!

kingsjester on October 27, 2011 at 7:38 AM

It’s one thing to say, “You can’t beat a well-funded, well-organized establishment candidate in a long race,” but you should be able to beat them somewhere.

You left out “best debater”.
*sigh*
Inevitability.
Here’s hoping he’ll pick Jindal or Rubio for veep.

itsnotaboutme on October 27, 2011 at 7:43 AM

If you are sitting around thinking of who Flipper Romney might pick as a VP I suggest you spend the time deciding what you will be wearing for Obama’s second Inaugural.

SurferDoc on October 27, 2011 at 7:59 AM

SurferDoc on October 27, 2011 at 7:59 AM

Exactly. And if you believe Romney’s a Conservative, you probably also like to be taken snipe hunting.

kingsjester on October 27, 2011 at 8:08 AM

Gosh, I just heard a fine young Congressman from Illinois on Fox N Friends relate how a crowd of them met Romney yesterday, they asked him very tough questions, and he said he “knocked it out of the park”.

Apparently Hot Air is a parallel universe.

Buy Danish on October 27, 2011 at 8:16 AM

Or Murdoch made Ailes get rid of Beck and moved their editorial style more toward the middle, instead of Center-Right.

kingsjester on October 27, 2011 at 8:19 AM

Romney will be a great POTUS and many hopefully will come back here and say they were mistaken in their comments about him.

g2825m on October 27, 2011 at 2:49 AM

Great in comparison to Obama, but that’s really not that high of a bar.

Something to consider…Cain is either leading or within the margin of error for first place overall (depending on which poll you believe…I heard the Fox poll this morning that put him 2 pts over Romney), but Romney is leading in states that, by and large, have monkeyed with their primary schedules. Aren’t at least the optics here of an establishment trying to ram their preferred candidate through at any cost?

There’s a healthy appetite and desire among the GOP base for a NotRomney. With Romney I see him actually having to tack right during the General, exactly the opposite of what you normally see.

JohnTant on October 27, 2011 at 8:29 AM

So hey, Romney true believers, is there any real rationale behind Mitt Romney’s candidacy or does Mitt Romney want to be President because Mitt Romney wants to be President? What, exactly, does your guy believe in or do his core beliefs fluctuate depending on sampling results that day? Remember that Kasich ballot initiative debacle in Ohio a few days ago? Yeah, that. A candidate who actually believed in something other than his own inevitable destiny would be able to speak to the issue without waiting for his staff to come up with the numbers indicating the safest possible position.

Your guy has no passion. He whines under pressure. He takes no risks. He never deviates from plan or shows anything remotely resembling the human touch when it comes to retail politicking. And he’s the candidate you want us to put up against Barack Obama and the Chicago Machine? These guys’ll make what Rick Perry did in that debate look like a kiss from an angel.

It’ll be a close race in the general election. If Romney wins the GOP nomination, he’s going to have to come up with a new plan, one that entails showing some guts, a willingness to take it to these socialist weasels. Otherwise, we get McCain redux.

troyriser_gopftw on October 27, 2011 at 9:08 AM

The MSM knows they can beat Romney by cheering for him and pi$$ing off Conservatives…or by attacking him and diminishing his support among Moderates. They can’t lose with this jerk.

SurferDoc on October 27, 2011 at 9:16 AM

What makes your position untenable ( and selfishly stupid) is that a 3rd party run guarantees Obama a second term.

Basilsbest on October 26, 2011 at 9:59 PM

If you want my vote, nominate a conservative. Period.

Knowing that, pushing for a RINO makes your position untenable (and selfishly stupid).

dominigan on October 27, 2011 at 9:18 AM

The MSM knows they can beat Romney by cheering for him and pi$$ing off Conservatives…or by attacking him and diminishing his support among Moderates. They can’t lose with this jerk.

SurferDoc on October 27, 2011 at 9:16 AM

I’d love to hear a passionate argument how Cain or Perry or any of the other candidates would fare against the MSM and Obama… It all ain’t a bed of roses with those guys either – don’t kid yourself.

gatorboy on October 27, 2011 at 9:18 AM

Granted. Mitt is McCain Redux. The rest aren’t so hot, either. I won’t lift a finger to elect a RINO. Period.

SurferDoc on October 27, 2011 at 9:22 AM

Granted. Mitt is McCain Redux. The rest aren’t so hot, either. I won’t lift a finger to elect a RINO. Period.

SurferDoc on October 27, 2011 at 9:22 AM

You should get used to not voting then I suppose… RINO applies to them all, doesn’t it?

gatorboy on October 27, 2011 at 9:28 AM

I don’t see any one of them that can perform at a general election winning level.

SurferDoc on October 27, 2011 at 9:39 AM

Plenty of time still – the trick is to lead when the votes are counted.

EconomicNeocon on October 27, 2011 at 10:01 AM

If Romney is the GOP candidate in the general election, I will vote for him, RINO or not. The next election isn’t even primarily about who wins the presidency. We’re at a fork in the road and the next election is a referendum on the kind of country the United States will become: failed socialist superstate or shining light on the hill. There is no more middle ground.

troyriser_gopftw on October 27, 2011 at 10:07 AM

So a poll comes out showing Romney is leading in the first four states (re: He has quite a bit of support out there) and everyone launches into how weak he is and he is RINO…

Romney is a great candidate and many of you misunderstand his experience in the private sector and working with world leaders for over 2 years during the build up to the 2002 Olympics. You do not build a multi-million dollar company being a light weight. Romney is a conservative and will be a great POTUS.

Leave it to Allah to try to fend off any momentum Romney may gain…

g2825m on October 27, 2011 at 10:18 AM

Romney is no Conservative. He is a pile of RINO crap.

I have voted for more than one RINO because “this is the most important election ever”. Too late for that BS. Never again. Never.

SurferDoc on October 27, 2011 at 10:25 AM

Well Surfer, and those like you, will just create another 1996 and 2006 where Dems kept or came into power and the 2006 election, because people were mad and stayed home in the mid-terms, elected Pelosi and Reid to power. Obama came on the heels of this wave because people wanted to stay home.

Romney will do a great job and will be the one candidate who will know what to do on day one.

g2825m on October 27, 2011 at 10:34 AM

I Romney wins Iowa it’s over?

Have you ever read about Harry-Cain Truman?

Don L on October 27, 2011 at 10:35 AM

If the Republicans want my vote this time, it is on them to give me somebody I can vote for comfortably. So far, they haven’t made the sale.

SurferDoc on October 27, 2011 at 10:40 AM

Romney / T-Paw 2012!!

Go RBNY on October 27, 2011 at 10:41 AM

One thing is crystal clear . . . Romney is the choice of the media and their leftist constituency. They don’t believe he can beat Obama and, at this point, they are probably correct.

rplat on October 27, 2011 at 10:48 AM

I like Perry but given his performance to date I’m skeptical he can go toe to toe with Obama and the media. Yes, Romney is a RINO but he’ll be a million times better than Obama. I don’t get some on here who are tearing up our candidates. The Obama campaign/media will have their general election work done for them by the time we get our nominee.

buckichick1 on October 27, 2011 at 10:54 AM

Well Surfer, and those like you, will just create another 1996 and 2006 where Dems kept or came into power and the 2006 election, because people were mad and stayed home in the mid-terms, elected Pelosi and Reid to power. Obama came on the heels of this wave because people wanted to stay home.

Romney will do a great job and will be the one candidate who will know what to do on day one.

g2825m on October 27, 2011 at 10:34 AM

And let me hear you tell everyone how you’ll enthusiastically support Cain/Perry/NotRomney in the general.

Funny how the “moderates” always demand support from the base but never seem to reciprocate….

Also, earlier you said:

So a poll comes out showing Romney is leading in the first four states (re: He has quite a bit of support out there) and everyone launches into how weak he is and he is RINO…

The guy doesn’t even have that strong of a plurality. In other words, there are significantly more people against him (70-75%) than are for him. You can’t translate that to “quite a bit of support.”

How about recognizing that Romney has some serious problems among the base…the same base he needs to win…instead of prattling on about how “great” he is? This force-feeding of Romney isn’t selling him.

JohnTant on October 27, 2011 at 11:03 AM

I have voted for more than one RINO because “this is the most important election ever”. Too late for that BS. Never again. Never.

SurferDoc on October 27, 2011 at 10:25 AM

Me, too. But I live in Texas so the Republicans don’t have to worry about me with Romney not voting. Right? They don’t need to worry…………..do they?

Marcus on October 27, 2011 at 11:07 AM

I have voted for more than one RINO because “this is the most important election ever”. Too late for that BS. Never again. Never.

SurferDoc on October 27, 2011 at 10:25 AM

Me, too. But I live in Texas so the Republicans don’t have to worry about me with Romney not voting. Right? They don’t need to worry…………..do they?

Marcus on October 27, 2011 at 11:07 AM

The progressive democrats plan to split the republicans from their support is working. I am an Independent, if the “establishment” republicans don’t want my vote, that’s no skin off of my nose :)

Dr Evil on October 27, 2011 at 11:24 AM

And let me hear you tell everyone how you’ll enthusiastically support Cain/Perry/NotRomney in the general.

Funny how the “moderates” always demand support from the base but never seem to reciprocate….

John,
You have no idea! I am not a moderate and have been posting on HA back to 2007/8! From this currently serving 7 tour Vet I will gladly vote for Perry or Cain or Gingrich…whoever our candidate is over Obama. I have witnessed over here (AFG) firsthand the results of some of his choices.

It is people like you that refuse to vote for Romney because they believe they are standing up for the “greater” good and do not realize the smallness of their decision and where it will lead if we have another four more years of Obama.

Again Romney will be a great President! We all need to concentrate on the current occupant.

btw did you all read the article that HA linked to about Cain and his former staffers. Granted I will give you that they are talking to people who are no longer with the campaign BUT people leave for a reason.

g2825m on October 27, 2011 at 11:26 AM

The guy doesn’t even have that strong of a plurality. In other words, there are significantly more people against him (70-75%) than are for him. You can’t translate that to “quite a bit of support.”

One other note…because Romney is polling at 25% does NOT translate that 75% are against him. If that is the logic then 80% are against Perry, 85% are against Bachmann, etc etc…

The percentages will all rise once it is down to 2 choices. Romney is just better positioned with the funds and organization. He also knows how to run a campaign and this is why I think other Conservative Senators and Congressman are jumping on his bandwagon because they know he CAN beat Obama.

I really do not believe there are large swath of people that want to have Obama, Pelosi, Holder, Czar’s, and Executive Order’s for the next four years.

g2825m on October 27, 2011 at 11:33 AM

Answer me this: Why should a majority Conservative, Center-right nation, have to settle for a Stick-My-Finger-in-the Wind-to-Make-a-Decision, Center-Center candidate?

kingsjester on October 27, 2011 at 7:02 AM

Precisely. This is why Cain is un-electable.

Haldol on October 27, 2011 at 11:34 AM

my new favorite Rasmussen poll of NH

* Mitt Romney 41%
* Herman Cain 17%
* Ron Paul 11%
* Newt Gingrich 8%
* Jon Huntsman 7%
* Undecided 5%
* other candidate 2%

WHERE IS RICK PERRY LMAO!

hanzblinx on October 27, 2011 at 11:36 AM

One other note…because Romney is polling at 25% does NOT translate that 75% are against him. If that is the logic then 80% are against Perry, 85% are against Bachmann, etc etc…

The percentages will all rise once it is down to 2 choices. Romney is just better positioned with the funds and organization. He also knows how to run a campaign and this is why I think other Conservative Senators and Congressman are jumping on his bandwagon because they know he CAN beat Obama.

I really do not believe there are large swath of people that want to have Obama, Pelosi, Holder, Czar’s, and Executive Order’s for the next four years.
Choose Romney, it’s his turn. Inevitable!

g2825m on October 27, 2011 at 11:33 AM

FIFY

fossten on October 27, 2011 at 12:17 PM

It is people like you that refuse to vote for Romney because they believe they are standing up for the “greater” good and do not realize the smallness of their decision and where it will lead if we have another four more years of Obama.

Again Romney will be a great President! We all need to concentrate on the current occupant.

btw did you all read the article that HA linked to about Cain and his former staffers. Granted I will give you that they are talking to people who are no longer with the campaign BUT people leave for a reason.
g2825m on October 27, 2011 at 11:26 AM

No, I refuse to support Romney based on being beat over the head with the “electability” canard. In an environment with Obama’s job approval ratings in the toilet and the GOP poised to make historic gains, trying to say we have to elect a moderate Democrat Republican is a non starter. He still hasn’t offered up any reasonable explanation about supporting RomneyCare, for example. Frankly, from the standpoint of the base, he’s treating the nomination as an entitlement and that’s not the way to woo people.

Besides, not one primary vote has been cast yet. Trying to say we all need to gel around Romney before the primaries even start is, frankly, a stupid argument. Why bother to have a primary at all then?! Primaries are the way the party vets candidates…they are not inconveniences for the anointed.

So yeah, if you’re worried about large portions of the base staying home instead of voting for the “right” candidate, then maybe you should be supporting honest primaries and candidates who actually excite the base instead of forcing them into a choice between bad and worse.

One other note…because Romney is polling at 25% does NOT translate that 75% are against him. If that is the logic then 80% are against Perry, 85% are against Bachmann, etc etc…

If people were supportive of Romney then they’d be supporting him now. You are conceding the fact that a significant chunk of Romney’s support would be based on his (presumed) status as a default candidate, not because voters actually like the guy (by your logic, ANY Republican candidate can claim “quite a bit of support” when the field is whittled down….). And on that basis, he loses. McCain found that out and Romney apparently hasn’t learned the lesson.

So no, Romney doesn’t have “quite a bit of support.”

And incidentally, I’m quite comfortable with a talking point that 85% of the GOP doesn’t like Bachmann for President.

JohnTant on October 27, 2011 at 12:26 PM

Precisely. This is why Cain is un-electable.

Haldol on October 27, 2011 at 11:34 AM

You must be referring to President ‘middle of the road not a dimes worth of difference in a liberal’ President McCain, oh, wait…

Cain is the only Conservative in the race.

DanaSmiles on October 27, 2011 at 12:29 PM

Romney is no Conservative. He is a pile of RINO crap.

I have voted for more than one RINO because “this is the most important election ever”. Too late for that BS. Never again. Never.

SurferDoc on October 27, 2011 at 10:25 AM

Ditto — speaking for 3 Ohio voters here.

EconomicNeocon on October 27, 2011 at 12:52 PM

Update: Cain leads Romney in national Fox News poll

..poll of 335 registered voters; MOE +/- 5.5%

The War Planner on October 27, 2011 at 1:03 PM

Herman Cain is Mr Bullseye for the last two weeks.

The nuance of the critics is skilled, which shows how much professional propagandists are being paid suddenly to turn their guns from Perry to target Cain.

Let me think, we suddenly learn that:

Cain like # 45, so he is a cultist numerologist.

Cain has not had a full staff until his fund raising could afford it, so he is a Book Tour only man.

Cain wants to release the gitmo terrorists, even if he corrected himself.

Cain wants to allow abortions, even though the President has no such power until the SCOTUS changes the law.

Cain is merely a Pizza Company owner, even though he is a mathematician and has has done executive turnarounds for 2 major Corporations and served on the Board at companies and The FED, and has run a leadership consultant business for 10 years and done a nightly Talk Radio Show for 4 years.

Cain is unaware of the term Neo-conservative, even though he has done the Talk Radio Gig and discussed it for years and clearly meant he would not recognize that antisemitic dog whistle as a legitimate category of analysis.

Cain has always been Flipper’s stalking horse, even though he has never been a secret switch artist before in all of his marriage and career moves.

Cain does not like constant interruptions from his staff when he is being himself.

Cain is secret racist, even though as a Conservative he has had many close white friends all of his life including your truly.

jimw on October 27, 2011 at 1:25 PM

btw did you all read the article that HA linked to about Cain and his former staffers. Granted I will give you that they are talking to people who are no longer with the campaign BUT people leave for a reason.
g2825m on October 27, 2011 at 11:26 AM

Yeah, and people criticize anonymously for a reason also…

lovingmyUSA on October 27, 2011 at 1:43 PM

g2825m on October 27, 2011 at 11:26 AM

And like any good boss, Cain knows when to cut the deadwood from a campaign…

lovingmyUSA on October 27, 2011 at 1:44 PM

What percentage of voters self-define as “Tea Party” associated, affiliated or participating?

I ask because my impression is that most on the Right and Moderate have all been quite gracious to and about the Tea Party but it’s been a small minority of voters who have actually declared as Tea Party and participated in Tea Party events/protests/rallies.

What I’m getting at is this: we see and read reports about the Occupy Wall Street protest and it appears to be a huge crowd gathered there.

Then, just a few days ago, I read a first-hand report from someone who actually traveled to the Park where the OWS people are, and he stated that there were “about 100 people who were actually protesting” and then there was another crowd adjacent of “about 200 journalists” reporting about the 100. And the guy was surprised to find that the crowd protesting was actually small while he along with the rest of the public had been led to believe that the protesters were of a much more vast number.

So I wonder just how populated the Tea Party numbers actually are. Because their effect on the campaigns of late has been noticeable but I wonder to what degree they actually represent voters who can effect actual change at the ballot box by their numbers.

Lourdes on October 27, 2011 at 2:06 PM

Gosh, I just heard a fine young Congressman from Illinois on Fox N Friends relate how a crowd of them met Romney yesterday, they asked him very tough questions, and he said he “knocked it out of the park”.

Apparently Hot Air is a parallel universe.

Buy Danish on October 27, 2011 at 8:16 AM

It’s not so much the site but those who comment with intensity in dislike of Romney. It’s been going on for a long time here, in my experience, but it’s not from the site but, rather, from certain commenters.

Same on twitter. The same few post there very, very often with anti-Romney tweets and then harass anyone who isn’t doing likewise. And then accuse you of being a Romney campaigner or, on this site, accuse you (me, for example) of being “paid by Allahpundit” or some other ridiculous allegation, when/if one does not denigrate Romney and promote specific others such as Palin or Cain.

So, it goes to the impression the “loudest” complaints make, not that what they sometimes express (or always express) is an accurate picture of anyone else or this site but that they simply complain loudly and often and repeat that process here, there, elsewhere.

Lourdes on October 27, 2011 at 2:15 PM

Romney-Cain will be a formidable team.

Basilsbest on October 26, 2011 at 9:21 PM

I think so, too. Appealing to Moderates and other Independents, to some Democrats and to many Republicans (and a few Tea Partiers as to Cain).

But I’d still love to see Gingrich debate Obama…somehow see that happen.

Lourdes on October 27, 2011 at 2:19 PM

Romney leads in a poll hosted by the Communist News Network! Big surprise there hey! This should open the eyes of these Romney (RINO) supporters but it will not! The communist left wants this ass clown in the election because they see him as the easiest to beat, and personally I think they are right! You Romney (RINO) supporters are going to give us another 4 years of a true born and raised communist! Geee thanks a lot!

Confederate on October 27, 2011 at 2:23 PM

HA Candidate Support update (171 explicit or implicit declarations, Romney has the most pickups in last 48 hours).
CAIN (74) [Current 43.2%, Previous, 43.6%, High 43.6% ] – 2Tru2Tru, AH_C, Alecj, Apologetic, Astonerii, Balkanmom, BierMan VA, Bill C, Bishop, Bkennedy, Blatantblu, BroncosRock, Canopfor, Carbon_footprint, CatoReansci, Cliffhanger, Coldwarrior 57, Conservalicious, CrankyTRex, CTSherman, davidk, Deedtrader, Dingbat63, Ditkaca, DrW, Elcapt, exdeadhead, Faraway, Gh, Grunt, gryphon202, Iowawoman, Jason Coleman, Jhffman, JimW, Jinxed, joe_doufu, Karmi, katablog.com, katy, Katy the mean old lady, Keep the Change, KingGold, Knucklehead, Landlines, Lily, Lovingmy USA, Mankai, Milemarker2020, MR_Magoo, Ninjapirate, Norwegian, pappyD61, pbundy, petefrt, prtlandon, Puncheko, RalphBoy, r keller, Rational Thought, RedbonePro, redeye, redfoxbluestate, Repubchica, Robert_Paulson, ronsfi, Rose, Sbvft, Schadenfreude, Steve Z, Ted c, TinkerThinker, tjexcite, Txmomof6.
GINGRICH (50) [Current 29.3%, Previous, 29.9%, High 29.9%] – A capella, Ameripundit, Bflat879, Bluefox, Borntoraisehogs, BuckeyeSam, Carbon_footprint, Christian Conservative, Cindy Munford, cmsinaz, cycncook, Daemonocracy, Darwin, DKCZ, Don L, Doughboy, El_Terrible, ElectricPhase, Floating, Rock, Fossten, Georgealbert, Hellcat, Huckleberryfriend, JellyToast, jhffmn, kerrhome, Lourdes, MeatHeadinCA, Meh, NY Conservative, paul1149, phreshone, PowerPro, ProudPalinFan, Puncheko, Redlizard64, Right2bright, SaltySam, sandee, Search4truth, Sharrukin, Socmodfiscon, Spanky, Spypeach, Stenwin77, Trs, Unseen, VBMax, Victor82, Weight of Glory.
PERRY (29) [Current 17%, Previous, 17.6%, High 17.6%] – Annoyinglittletwerp, Aslans Girl, Bluefox, Cartooner, Christian Conservative, Cmsinaz, Darwin, Dire Straits, Dr. evil, El_terrible, Flyfisher, Gophergirl, HondaV65, Jeffn21, JeffWeimer, JohnGalt23, JonPrichard, Juliesa, kg598301, Marcus, Meh,
NickDeringer, OneGyT, Rukiddingme, SlaveDog, stacman, Steve Z, The Right Man, XWing5.
ROMNEY (16) [Current 9.3%, Previous, 8.5%, High 8.5%] – Andy85719, Chudi, csdeven, Faraway, jjshaka, Joepub, Lorien1973, MJ Brutus, Nswider, Pcoop, Petunia, Sheryl, Swamp Yankee, Thuja, Voter from WA State.
BACHMANN (1) [Current 0.5%, Previous, 0.6%, High <5.0%] – FloatingRock
PAUL (1) [Current 0.5%, Previous, 0.6%, High <5.0%] – iamse7en
As a comparison from what I gather there are 21 Former/Current Palin supporters declared at HA…only half have committed to another candidate. That tends to put Romney’s support in perspective and his possible nomination in great jeopardy statistically speaking.
PALINITES (21) – Annoyinglittletwerp, Bill C, Cindy Munford, Capitalist piglet, CS89, Ddrintn, InkyBinkyBarleyBoo, JonPrichard, Leftnomore, Listen2glenn, Marcus, NoLeftTurn, Promachus, pugwriter, Puncheko, RedLizard64, right2bright, Tencole, There Goes The Neighborhood, Western_Civ, Who is John Galt.
Percentages might exceed 100% due to rounding. If for any reason I have you under the wrong candidates tent, I have you listed under more than one candidate, or you would like to throw your name behind a candidate you can update me at prov22.17-21@juno.com (three people have updated this way.
Provided as service towards eventual coalescing behind he/she who saved the people from HWINLM.

RedLizard64 on October 27, 2011 at 2:33 PM

DP ’12

Dr. Carlo Lombardi on October 27, 2011 at 3:07 PM

RedLizard64 on October 27, 2011 at 2:33 PM

Wow I didnt even know there were that many commentators. You have mine right, good job!

nswider on October 27, 2011 at 3:13 PM

Answer me this: Why should a majority Conservative, Center-right nation, have to settle for a Stick-My-Finger-in-the Wind-to-Make-a-Decision, Center-Center candidate?

kingsjester

Because there is no credible Conservative, do-the-right-thing candidate running.

xblade on October 27, 2011 at 3:31 PM

Granted I will give you that they are talking to people who are no longer with the campaign BUT people leave for a reason.
g2825m

But it’s not always a bad reason.

xblade on October 27, 2011 at 3:36 PM

Because Romney is a smart businessman….

If he was so smart, he wouldn’t have signed Romneycare then, and he wouldn’t continue to defend it now.

You do not build a multi-million dollar company being a light weight.

George Soros has built a billion dollar company. Maybe we should vote for him instead.

Romney is a conservative and will be a great POTUS.

g2825m

Romney is not a Conservative, and you saying it over and over won’t make it so.

xblade on October 27, 2011 at 3:50 PM

Confederate on October 27, 2011 at 2:23 PM

..grab a paper bag and start breathing into it before you hyperventilate, old son.

The War Planner on October 27, 2011 at 3:57 PM

If you all believe these polls, then I have swamp land for sale in Arizona.

Polls including Rasmussen are done for a reason — so the establishment candidate Romney can win or the Koch Brothers candidate Cain.

As IBD said last night in one of their columns, the voters haven’t spoken. The article basically called the establishment dumb for supporting Romney at all costs. Hope Rove is proud of himself. Now Cain is complaining about Rove because he went after him. He should be in Perry’s shoes — Cain forget I guess he went after Perry with a vengence on the rock. Guess he only likes dishing it out not taking what comes. Shows a very thin skin!

If you go by actual fundraising, it sure isn’t Romney!

PhiKapMom on October 27, 2011 at 4:01 PM

The guy doesn’t even have that strong of a plurality. In other words, there are significantly more people against him (70-75%) than are for him. You can’t translate that to “quite a bit of support.”

How about recognizing that Romney has some serious problems among the base…the same base he needs to win…instead of prattling on about how “great” he is? This force-feeding of Romney isn’t selling him.

JohnTant on October 27, 2011 at 11:03 AM

There is some polling that you must consider.

1) 75% of the GOP will vote for the candidate that can beat Obama and are not so concerned with ideological purity.
2) The GOP has a 40% advantage in enthusiasm on the demrats.

That means the GOP is going to get out and vote irrespective of the nominee. At this time, they are vetting for the most conservative candidate that can win. That is why Bachmann, Perry, and soon Cain have risen and then fell. They fell because they did not appear electable. Romney is electable and as big as a RINO he is, the GOP will turn out in droves to vote for him.

I don’t for one second listen to the fools at Hot Air who whine about sitting at home rather than vote for a RINO. I am sure they will sit at home, but they over estimate their influence. They are the smallest iota of the tiniest minority and they wont even be missed. Narcissistic whiny boobs is what they are.

csdeven on October 27, 2011 at 6:05 PM

RedLizard64 on October 27, 2011 at 2:33 PM

Great work I think, but Lorien 1973 is for Romney? I don’t know what system you used to compile this list, but damn, you coulda fooled me! I’m also not sure how you missed putting me in the Mitt column. I’m also not buying your conclusion about former Palinistas not supporting Romney are “putting his nomination in jeopardy”. Unless of course you were joking.

Buy Danish on October 27, 2011 at 7:56 PM

They are (and some of you creepy independents) are hooking up with the middle of the road media to nominate Romney .. because he is going to lose to Obama.

The most conservative candidate is Cain.

It’s going to be a repeat of the McCain nominee.. don’t you “teat party hobits get it”? hehe

Romney Fail – to .. just to perfect in a corrupt way.

Perry – fail.. to pissed off and everyone in the middle see’s (B)s(h).

. . hm that leaves Cain

amend2 on October 27, 2011 at 8:44 PM

csdeven on October 27, 2011 at 6:05 PM

Interesting points, but there is an implicit wiggle in your statement that “75% of the GOP will vote for the candidate that can beat Obama…” (my emphasis). That is a pretty thin hook on which to hang a hat, because by definition don’t most voters think their preferred candidate “can beat Obama?” Oh, sure, you have the protest voters who hang around the Paul camp (and even there I bet the percentage of Ronulans who don’t think their guy can win the general is nowhere near as high as 25%).

What is getting lost here is the reality that saying “this guy is electable” is not a synonym for actual substantive reasons to vote for the guy. That always gets overlooked by the Establishment-types who keep pushing moderate Democrats onto the GOP ticket and then hector the GOP conservative base for their support.

Plus, I’d suggest that if the polling crosstabs show (and I think they will) that support for a so-called “electable” candidate is more grounded in anti-Obama sentiment, trying to say that 75% is exclusive to Romney is stealing an intellectual base or two. If the 75% would vote for anyone running against Obama, then it’s not limited to Romney.

The real danger is the Establishment trying to force their preferred candidate through so vigorously that the conservative base abandons the GOP and goes third party…in that case Obama wins, and the blame will fall squarely on the GOP Establishment who insisted on a candidate distasteful to the base.

JohnTant on October 28, 2011 at 10:59 AM

JohnTant on October 28, 2011 at 10:59 AM

The GOP will vote for the guy who can beat Obama, ideology isn’t important. The only people who claim the base will sit home are the ideologues. The ideologues think ideology is more important than winning. Ergo, they are not part of the 75% that will vote for the guy that will beat Obama.

csdeven on October 28, 2011 at 8:59 PM

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