Gallup: Obama concludes worst polling quarter of his presidency

posted at 1:25 pm on October 21, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

Gallup published its quarterly analysis of its presidential polling, and the good news is that Obama set a new record.  That’s good news for his opponents, however, as Obama hit a new low of 41%.  The quarter-on-quarter decline was the worst of his presidency since the third quarter results (via Andrew Malcolm):

President Barack Obama’s 11th quarter in office was the worst of his administration, based on his quarterly average job approval ratings. His 41% approval average is down six percentage points from his 10th quarter in office, and is nearly four points below his previous low of 45% during his seventh quarter.

These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking from July 20-Oct. 19, 2011. During this time, Obama’s approval rating ranged narrowly between 38% and 43% for all but a few days of the quarter. The 38% approval ratings, registered on several occasions, are the lowest of his presidency to date.

The most notable event in Obama’s 11th quarter was probably the negotiations to raise the federal debt ceiling in late July and early August. Shortly after the agreement was reached, the stock market plummeted after Standard and Poor’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating. Later, the government’s jobs report showed no new net jobs were created in August, a sign the economy was still a long way from recovery. The president has been unsuccessful so far in getting Congress to pass the jobs bill he proposed in early September.

For the record, this is the worst level of support in the 11th quarter since Jimmy Carter’s 31% in Gallup’s series.  Carter ended up being a one-term President both for what preceded that 11th quarter result, and for what followed it — the Iranian hostage crisis and 444 days of futility.

The good news?  The only other presidents with below-majority 11th quarter polling were Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton.  However, there are significant differences in the comparisons.  By the time the 11th quarter rolled around for Reagan, the economic recovery had already started and was building steam.  For Clinton, the poll came in the middle of the HillaryCare debacle, and while Clinton was making a successful triangulation on welfare reform and economic policy to recapture the momentum.

Gallup notes that the measure in the 12th and 13th quarters are more indicative of what will happen in the next election cycle, but this is notable for another reason.  This includes at least six weeks of polling after Obama’s decision to strike a much more populist, class-warfare tone in Washington, a strategy that undoubtedly at least inspired the Occupy movement, if not explicitly coordinated with that effort.  There is no particular reason for such a sharp dropoff in approval otherwise — no big economic setback, no significantly bad outcome militarily or diplomatically, either.  This looks like a very good indication that Obama’s attempt to appease the hard Left has further marginalized him with the overall electorate, and if Obama can’t produce economic growth quickly, this trend could turn into a rout.

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“You can go ahead and clap,” the president said. “Go ahead, nothing wrong with it.”

El_Terrible on October 21, 2011 at 1:24 PM

ted c on October 21, 2011 at 1:27 PM

But has he been attacked by a crazed rabbit?

notashamed on October 21, 2011 at 1:29 PM

By the time the 11th quarter rolled around for Reagan, the economic recovery had already started and was building steam.

well then, we’ve had two solid years of Recovery Summer….
/

ted c on October 21, 2011 at 1:29 PM

I’m reporting both Gallup and Ed to attackwatch.org.

Knucklehead on October 21, 2011 at 1:29 PM

ted c on October 21, 2011 at 1:27 PM

lol. Thanks, I was about to post it here too.

El_Terrible on October 21, 2011 at 1:29 PM

Ditto, ted c, in fact I’m giving him a standing ovation.

notashamed on October 21, 2011 at 1:30 PM

But but but, he killed Bin Laden and Qaddafi with his own bare hands. C’mon people what else could you want?

Scrappy on October 21, 2011 at 1:30 PM

President Barack Hussein Obama loves the self-enriching title with all his heart and soul, but he absolutely loathes the job because he absolutely sucks at it. No matter. He said he was ‘fine’ with being a one termer POTUS. I am totally fine with it too. In fact, the more likely it looks the more ecstatic I become.

FlatFoot on October 21, 2011 at 1:30 PM

Pass The Bill!

a capella on October 21, 2011 at 1:32 PM

Actually, if you read the raw data carefully, it appears that the plurality of the daily tracking was at about 38/39%. Some, I would say suspect, days at the end of the polling period dragged the quarterly average up above 40%

pat on October 21, 2011 at 1:32 PM

But but but, he killed Bin Laden and Qaddafi with his own bare hands. C’mon people what else could you want?

Scrappy on October 21, 2011 at 1:30 PM

An increase in forceable fornication…?

/

Seven Percent Solution on October 21, 2011 at 1:32 PM

David? *sniff** David, what do I do? Wall Street won’t donate to me, the Dems ignore me, fer pete’s sakes I can’t even get a bunch of union firefighters to clap for me without promptin’ them to do so and now this Gallup bullsheet. Damn, the dog BO won’t even play with me unless I put on a wagyu beef necklace… whatchu think?

Axelrod: Well, Mr. President. You could announce that you’ll bring the troops in Iraq home by the end of the year and call it a Christmas present?

BHO: Dayumn. Great idea, where’s my secretary?

ted c on October 21, 2011 at 1:32 PM

El_Terrible on October 21, 2011 at 1:29 PM

that quote HAD to go first.

ted c on October 21, 2011 at 1:33 PM

OWS to the rescue!

mankai on October 21, 2011 at 1:33 PM

I’m sure Gallup’s poll will lead all of the newscasts this evening.

Then again, maybe not……

JustTurnRight on October 21, 2011 at 1:34 PM

… a strategy that undoubtedly at least inspired the Occupy movement, if not explicitly coordinated with that effort.

Whatever Community Mr. Obama is attempting to Organize, 99% of us are pretty sure we’re not members of it.

The Chewbacca Defense on October 21, 2011 at 1:35 PM

The timing of the ending of the Iraq War and his terrible poll numbers is not an accident. Someone realized he needed an October surprise about a year early to even have a prayer.

nswider on October 21, 2011 at 1:36 PM

This video ties this up like a present!
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2011/10/oh-this-is-good.php

tim c on October 21, 2011 at 1:41 PM

Man, I love a good rout.

mikeyboss on October 21, 2011 at 1:41 PM

My little voice tells me to remain cautious. This is Gallup, and they lean liberal. Maybe this is true, or maybe this is a ruse to get us to let our guard down. I dunno. I want to believe this, but something tugs at me and says….go slowly. Proceed with caution.

capejasmine on October 21, 2011 at 1:41 PM

There is no particular reason for such a sharp dropoff in approval otherwise — no big economic setback, no significantly bad outcome militarily or diplomatically, either.

at least no new, big economic setback aside from the one we are currently enduring, right?

ted c on October 21, 2011 at 1:43 PM

Welcome to Carter Country!

Ward Cleaver on October 21, 2011 at 1:44 PM

I got my rapey face on!

lorien1973 on October 21, 2011 at 1:44 PM

This video ties this up like a present!
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2011/10/oh-this-is-good.php

tim c on October 21, 2011 at 1:41 PM

Frightening.

mankai on October 21, 2011 at 1:45 PM

He’s in real trouble. There aren’t enough hated dictators for him to a$$a$$inate in between now and Nov 2012 to bring up those approval numbers.

DrAllecon on October 21, 2011 at 1:46 PM

ted c on October 21, 2011 at 1:32 PM

You nailed it there, good buddy.

UltimateBob on October 21, 2011 at 1:46 PM

Yet Rasmussen has had him in the mid to upper 40s for the past 2 weeks as OWS was gaining steam.

angryed on October 21, 2011 at 1:48 PM

I got my rapey face on!

lorien1973 on October 21, 2011 at 1:44 PM

heh!

ted c on October 21, 2011 at 1:48 PM

By this time next year if the riots don’t work…

… Obowma will start drilling for oil.

Seven Percent Solution on October 21, 2011 at 1:51 PM

But but but, he killed Bin Laden and Qaddafi with his own bare hands. C’mon people what else could you want?

Scrappy on October 21, 2011 at 1:30 PM

Delta Airlines confirmation: Your one-way ticket (for five, including dog), from Washington to Chicago on January 20th has been confirmed. Please enjoy your flight.

Rovin on October 21, 2011 at 1:53 PM

It’s Friday what bad news will Obama quietly release this afternoon???

albill on October 21, 2011 at 1:54 PM

By this time next year if the riots don’t work…

… Obowma will start drilling for oil.

Seven Percent Solution on October 21, 2011 at 1:51 PM

and sucking it up with a straw?

ted c on October 21, 2011 at 1:55 PM

Too bad we can’t get a solid conservative nominee to slam dunk this election, and erase the progressive legacy from the past 100 years.

Rebar on October 21, 2011 at 1:55 PM

It’s Friday what bad news will Obama quietly release this afternoon???

albill on October 21, 2011 at 1:54 PM

that’s right, we’re getting into the witching news hours….

ted c on October 21, 2011 at 1:55 PM

Celebrate not. The media and their polling operations are setting a very nice stage for the “comeback kid” narrative Team Obama is planning on. Can’t you just see the stories now: Obama “made the hard choices.” Obama “risked his presidency to do the right thing.” Obama “was willing to be a one-termer to help the poor.” But his “gamble” has paid off. The economy is “recovering nicely.” The rich are paying their “fair share.” And Obama “stayed true to his principles and didn’t worry about re-election.” This stuff just writes itself.

Rational Thought on October 21, 2011 at 1:56 PM

The Socialist-Idiot-In-Chief still believes pleasing the hard left will get him re-elected. With ACORN dead, there’s no way the left has that many votes, even counting the faithful dead in Chicago.

GarandFan on October 21, 2011 at 1:58 PM

My little voice tells me to remain cautious. This is Gallup, and they lean liberal. Maybe this is true, or maybe this is a ruse to get us to let our guard down. I dunno. I want to believe this, but something tugs at me and says…go slowly. Proceed with caution.

capejasmine on October 21, 2011 at 1:41 PM

I think you’re right to be cautious. I bet that ONero is telling his staffers, “I need something to happen to make me look Presidential. Fix me a September 11 a year from now, only bigger.”

Mary in LA on October 21, 2011 at 1:58 PM

Axelrod: Well, Mr. President. You could announce that you’ll bring the troops in Iraq home by the end of the year and call it a Christmas present? “But, you’ve screwed up this nation biggtime with your stupid socialism crap, and it’s still the economy—stupid”
BHO: Dayumn. Great idea, where’s my secretary?

ted c on October 21, 2011 at 1:32 PM

Rovin on October 21, 2011 at 1:59 PM

Rational Thought on October 21, 2011 at 1:56 PM

dude. you’re so right. I am enjoying the stumble tho’….

ted c on October 21, 2011 at 2:00 PM

After Carter, the media decided they would back their guy to the end.

faraway on October 21, 2011 at 2:06 PM

New entitlement cry from the Teater Nation!!!


“I WANT MY DIAPERS!!!”

http://delauro.house.gov/release.cfm?id=3206

Maybe, just maybe this kind of stuff adds up and makes an impact on voters?

PappyD61 on October 21, 2011 at 2:06 PM

New Haven, CT — Congresswoman Rosa DeLauro (CT-3), Ranking Member of the Appropriations Subcommittee on Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education, introduced the Diaper Investment and Aid to Promote Economic Recovery Act (DIAPER) Act today to provide diapers and diapering supplies to needy families through child care providers.

Millions of American families are struggling in today’s tough economy. For many, even the cost of keeping a child in diapers, about $4 a day, or $100 a month, is too much. But without an adequate supply of diapers, a child cannot attend day care—meaning that working mothers have a harder time getting to work, and can fall even further behind. And for the child, infrequent diaper changes can lead to diaper rash, increased risk of urinary tract and skin infections, and can even cause outbreaks of viral meningitis, dysentery, and Hepatitis A.

This legislation will simply amend the Child Care and Development Block Grant Act of 1990, and will help to relieve some of the stress on families facing hardship in this economy by allowing diapers to be provided as a direct service, instead of as an administrative cost.

“No family should have to choose between buying diapers for their child or buying groceries—but that is exactly what is happening today. Diapers are expensive, but necessary, to keep children healthy and in daycare, giving their parents the freedom they need to work. The DIAPER Act is a simple, straight-forward proposal to change the current law to allow diapers and diapering supplies to be provided to families in need,” said Congresswoman DeLauro. “I applaud the work of Joanne Goldblum, who has been operating a Diaper Bank in Connecticut for years now, and whose good work has served as the inspiration for this legislation. I look forward to continuing to work with Joanne to make this bill a reality.”

“It is so thrilling that Congresswoman DeLauro is taking the lead on recognizing this very important basic need, which has become more pressing as the economic downturn continues to put more families at risk,” said Joanne Goldblum, President and Executive Director of The Diaper Bank.

PappyD61 on October 21, 2011 at 2:08 PM

Politico spoke with former New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, who is urging the president to highlight a strong national security platform:

“His main platform should be, ‘I protected America from terrorists,’ and he should cite the death of the two terrorists and that he was brave and determined to make it happen, and he did,” said Bill Richardson, a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations who, like Obama, ran for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008. “He should run on foreign policy, easing tensions around the world, America regaining its respect abroad, and homeland security and terrorism. That’s what should be his main campaign address.”

However, is this really the case? While it is certainly important for any candidate or incumbent to show strength in the area of national security, nevertheless it does not guarantee an election or a re-election for anyone. Just ask George H.W. Bush.

Mr. Bush had an 88 percent approval rating after Desert Storm ended and he failed to convince voters to put him in the White House for a second term. Furthermore, the unemployment rate in 1992 was 7.5 percent. This number is a far cry from the current 9.1 percent unemployment number President Obama is dealing with today.link

It’s still the economy, stupid…………

Rovin on October 21, 2011 at 2:09 PM

Obama concludes worst polling quarter of his presidency

Til next quarter, anyway. It ain’t over til it’s over.

CantCureStupid on October 21, 2011 at 2:25 PM

New Haven, CT — Congresswoman Rosa DeLauro (CT-3), Ranking Member of the Appropriations Subcommittee on Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education, introduced the Diaper Investment and Aid to Promote Economic Recovery Act (DIAPER) Act today to provide diapers and diapering supplies to needy families through child care providers.

New Haven isn’t far from NYC. Maybe Rep. DeLauro can send the diapers to the Occupy Wall Street crowd, and keep cop cars clean.

Steve Z on October 21, 2011 at 2:30 PM

This looks like a very good indication that Obama’s attempt to appease the hard Left has further marginalized him with the overall electorate, and if Obama can’t produce economic growth quickly, this trend could turn into a rout.

Circumstances are such that white guilt won’t save Obama. Hey, great; break the color line. But Walter Williams wrote three and a half years ago that Obama was no Jackie Robinson. He also voiced concern that Obama would set blacks back for decades in national politics. I’ll never blame blacks for Obama; I’ll always blame liberals and independents–the 52 percenters.

Obama’s at 41%. Imagine what it would be if he were white. That POS is getting such a free ride at our expense.

BuckeyeSam on October 21, 2011 at 2:30 PM

Guess bho better get that bus ready for another taxpayers paid campaing tour stat! This time he might take mo, she polls higher than bho does? My little blood pumper just loves news polls like this! I have faith bho can do lots better getting lower by the months.
L

letget on October 21, 2011 at 2:33 PM

One thing to keep in mind….Carter, as bad as he was, was on his way to re-election, until one awesome debate performance by Reagan.

xblade on October 21, 2011 at 2:59 PM

“How loooow can you go?!”

Scotsman on October 21, 2011 at 3:19 PM

I’m reporting both Gallup and Ed to attackwatch.org.

Knucklehead on October 21, 2011 at 1:29 PM

Whatever happened to the Ministry of Orwell/Attackwatch? Did O’Bozo quickly tire of being mocked on late night TV?

Jaibones on October 21, 2011 at 3:22 PM

One thing to keep in mind….Carter, as bad as he was, was on his way to re-election, until one awesome debate performance by Reagan.

xblade on October 21, 2011 at 2:59 PM

..that’s *ahem* debatable. Carter was so intensely disliked going into the campaign that it spawned a third party “moderate Republican candidate”, John Anderson, who is said to have sucked away some of Carter’s votes.

Per the Wiki entry:

Meanwhile, Carter was burdened by a continued weak economy and the Iran hostage crisis. Inflation, high interest rates, and unemployment continued through the course of the campaign, and the ongoing hostage crisis in Iran became, to many, a symbol of American impotence during the Carter years. John Anderson’s independent candidacy, aimed at liberals, was also seen as hurting Carter more than Reagan, especially in such Democratic states as Massachusetts and New York.

It was acknowledged that the polls which had Carter leading Reagan going into the election — and the results certainly proved that they were wrong. (i.e., no last minute tectonic shifts in the electorate.)

My “refutation” is based on your seeming assertion that it was just the debate that influenced voters. Carter came into the election wounded by the hostage crisis, the weak economy, a challenge by Kennedy, and the John Anderson independent run. But this does not diminish Reagan’s campaign one iota. To be sure, the debate performance by Reagan was the coup de grâce.

The inference is that whomever is the GOP nominee, he or she had better bring his “A” game to the debates because the MSM will give Obama a lot of cover is not in dispute.

I kind of like Gingrich’s suggestion that they be like the Lincoln-Douglas debates: three hours, no [limp-wristed, comm-simp, NPR] moderator, and only a time keeper. Two men enter, one man leaves.

I’d pay to watch that hatchet-asssed metro-sexual, commie squirm.

The War Planner on October 21, 2011 at 3:47 PM

Help me out here – is Gallup racist? Or is it all the people who “disapproved” of Obama?

Squiggy on October 21, 2011 at 4:11 PM

The Obama administration discovers that their usual claptrap no longer works…

landlines on October 21, 2011 at 5:03 PM

always keep in mind when speaking of billy jeff clinton….he NEVER hit 50 % in any of his 2 elections for the presidency thanks to Perot

Aggie95 on October 21, 2011 at 5:18 PM

Full capitulation occurs in the steady 30s.

DrStock on October 21, 2011 at 6:13 PM

There is no particular reason for such a sharp dropoff in approval otherwise — no big economic setback, no significantly bad outcome militarily or diplomatically, either.

How about the possibility that people’s patience has finally started to wear out after another summer with high gas prices, high air conditioning bills, and no recovery in sight?

ardenenoch on October 21, 2011 at 6:43 PM

I wonder if the man ever had an original idea pop into his head. From what I have seen, his skills are being willing to enact ideas that others have proposed e.g. Saul Alinski. Obama is just a shill for others who actually come up with the ideology he is willing to represent. His “signature programs,Obamacare and Stimulus Spending, spend are just warmed over, failed ideas of the past. Empty suit indeed.

I don’t think he is an idea guy. Since everything he has touched has turned to sh*t, he has no where to go to rescue himself. All he can do is hold tight to his teleprompter like cold death and try to dazzle people with his stellar oratory skills.

Mallard T. Drake on October 21, 2011 at 7:22 PM

Don’t forget the steady waning of the MSM’s influence. Obama’s sycophants in the media are losing their ability to spin everything for the Democrats.

The economy may improve but the media trends are relentless — and very long term. The Democratic party is already worried about a landslide but they haven’t factored in the evolution in the media.

Big things are possible.

Pythagoras on October 21, 2011 at 7:22 PM