GOP candidates outraising Obama in battleground states?

posted at 2:05 pm on October 18, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

So far, the focus of the campaign coverage has mainly settled on the big-but-not-spectacular numbers from Team Obama.  Those compare favorably to the fundraising activity of Obama’s potential rivals in the Republican primary — but only when considered individually.  Eric Ostermeier at the University of Minnesota’s Smart Politics blog looks at aggregate fundraising for Republicans, especially in swing states, and discovers that Obama might find himself in serious trouble once the GOP settles on a nominee:

Early fundraising for the GOP field signals that the Republican Party has already made inroads in several of these states – notching more contributions than the president in large donor money in nearly a dozen of them.

A Smart Politics analysis of FEC data finds Republican presidential candidates have raised more large donor money ($200 or greater per individual) than Barack Obama in 11 states won by the President in 2008.

Almost all of these states will be considered battlegrounds next November: Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Virginia.

Overall, Obama received $116 million from these 11 states he carried in the ’08 cycle compared to $100 million for the entire Republican field, and raised more money than the Republicans in eight of them: Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Ohio.

In the current cycle, the GOP field has nearly doubled up on the president in these 11 states, raising $14.7 million compared to just $7.4 million for Obama.

Earlier today, I wrote about efforts by Democrats in Virginia to distance themselves from Obama, but Virginia had traditionally been a narrowly Republican state in presidential elections before 2008 anyway.  This list contains a couple of surprises, chief among them my own state of Minnesota.  This state last went for a Republican President in 1972; it’s the only state not to have voted for Ronald Reagan at least once.  Not only do we make the list of states giving more to Republicans, we actually come in third, with a +$179 per-1000-people advantage for Republicans over Obama’s campaign.

The top state is another surprise.  Connecticut backed Obama by more than 2o points in 2008, went for John Kerry by 10 over George Bush in 2004, and Al Gore by 17 in 2000.  Right now, despite the fractured Republican race and the relatively small number of Republicans in the Nutmeg State, the aggregated GOP per-1000 advantage is at +$204.  Republicans also lead in Obama 2008 states like Colorado and New Hampshire by smaller margins.  Meanwhile, Obama only leads in one state where he lost in 2008 — Montana, where he has a four-dollar advantage.

Going beyond the top eleven states doesn’t reverse the Republican trend, either:

Republican inroads can also be seen in that “Obama states” make up 12 of the Top 20 spots for large donor per capita giving in the GOP presidential field, whereas no state won by John McCain appears on the president’s Top 20 per capita list in giving to his reelection campaign.

Bear in mind that these are aggregate numbers from separate and unequally organized campaigns, not a national effort by Republicans.  Obama should really be dominating the fundraising, especially in states he won in 2008, where one would presume he would concentrate his efforts in order to hold his gains — especially swing states like Florida and Ohio.

This analysis strongly suggests that Obama will find it difficult to raise money like he did in 2008, let alone enough to raise a billion dollars as his campaign has promised.  It also suggests that Obama’s destruction of the public-financing system in 2008 might end up putting him at a big disadvantage when Republicans unite behind one campaign — and that the earlier that unity occurs, the sooner Obama will find himself trailing in the money race.

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The nation cannot afford another another 4 years of Obama. To invest against him is the wise choice.

portlandon on October 18, 2011 at 2:11 PM

Not to worry the ‘foreign’ money hasn’t started to come in yet? Probably going to be gobs of gosh knows who’s sending money to bho.
L

letget on October 18, 2011 at 2:12 PM

This is so telling, a bellweather…Obama may not be the candidate…if they lose the Senate and the White House, it is all over and they know it.
Watch the special investigations fly…

right2bright on October 18, 2011 at 2:13 PM

Was “Bev” Perdue in Asheville, NC with Barack yesterday? I don’t recall seeing her on the stage with him.

SouthernGent on October 18, 2011 at 2:13 PM

There’s always Bernake money!!!!!

SayNo2-O on October 18, 2011 at 2:17 PM

Was “Bev” Perdue in Asheville, NC with Barack yesterday? I don’t recall seeing her on the stage with him.

SouthernGent on October 18, 2011 at 2:13 PM

She’s too busy writing up legislation to stop the election to be seen with King Barry.

Knucklehead on October 18, 2011 at 2:20 PM

This is so telling, a bellweather…Obama may not be the candidate…if they lose the Senate and the White House, it is all over and they know it.
Watch the special investigations fly…

right2bright on October 18, 2011 at 2:13 PM

..even more instructive might be the squirming of Hillary and othe rpossible VPOTUS replacements for Plugs. She said yesterday that it was someone else’s turn “to step up”. The run for the lifeboats versus whose still on the promenade deck listening to the band or rearranging the deck chairs will be fun to watch. Wonder if Plugs wants his old Senate seat
back?

..pass the popcorn.

The War Planner on October 18, 2011 at 2:21 PM

This analysis strongly suggests that Obama will find it difficult to raise money…

“Hey buddy…

… can you spare a dime?” – BHO

Seven Percent Solution on October 18, 2011 at 2:21 PM

There’s always Bernake Bernanke money!!!!! Sorry.

SayNo2-O on October 18, 2011 at 2:22 PM

Wonder if Plugs wants his old Senate seat
back?

..pass the popcorn.

The War Planner on October 18, 2011 at 2:21 PM

Nahhh…

He knows he will be the Golden Boy of Wall Street and Banking once POTUS falls on his Face.

He will have to support OWS e-v-e-r so carefully to make sure he sucks up to the Libs but doesn’t ruin his chance to make millions off of the ones they hate.

Get up and take a bow! Oh OH…God love ya!

SayNo2-O on October 18, 2011 at 2:27 PM

Connecticut? I guess some rich people aren’t so keen on becoming un-rich people.

forest on October 18, 2011 at 2:27 PM

Republicans beating him in CT? That must be hedge fund money because the average citizens will break heavily for Obama…unfortunately.

jnelchef on October 18, 2011 at 2:30 PM

No worries there’s always taxpayer money to supplement any shortfall

ldbgcoleman on October 18, 2011 at 2:30 PM

I don’t make much, but I saved up a few hundred for next year’s election that I plan on donating to worthy candidates if I think it will help. The way things are going, I might be able to keep it with a clear conscience.

Mord on October 18, 2011 at 2:31 PM

Connecticut? I guess some rich people aren’t so keen on becoming un-rich people.

forest on October 18, 2011 at 2:27 PM

I think that Wall Street guys living in western Connecticut are unamused by the OWS protests and Bambi throwing in with them.

teke184 on October 18, 2011 at 2:32 PM

I think that Wall Street guys living in western Connecticut are unamused by the OWS protests and Bambi throwing in with them.

teke184 on October 18, 2011 at 2:32 PM

It’s about time they’ve become unamused by that clown.

forest on October 18, 2011 at 2:35 PM

Imagine, after the primaries, after the convention, two Black men, could debate on TV for the office of President.

Speakup on October 18, 2011 at 2:38 PM

I live in CT. Wow, you mean my vote may actually have a shot this year?

Uncledave on October 18, 2011 at 2:38 PM

Who paid for that bus again…?

/

Seven Percent Solution on October 18, 2011 at 2:42 PM

How does this approach – looking at aggregate donations – compare with aggregate donations in previous election cycles (not just voting records in those states)?

Midas on October 18, 2011 at 2:50 PM

Imagine, after the primaries, after the convention, two one and a half Black men, could debate on TV for the office of President.

Speakup on October 18, 2011 at 2:38 PM

All we need now is a black moderator and some photoshopping of “Two and a Half Black Men” publicity stills!

Midas on October 18, 2011 at 2:52 PM

SecState Clinton doesn’t want to get ANYWHERE near a cabin on the TITANIC…

With PHBO at the helm…

Icebregs ahead, but he’ll never see them…

Khun Joe on October 18, 2011 at 2:58 PM

Not only do we make the list of states giving more to Republicans, we actually come in third, with a +$179 per-1000-people advantage for Republicans over Obama’s campaign.

Bachmann & T-Paw effect, I’m guessing.

strictnein on October 18, 2011 at 3:27 PM

Hey if we are lucky Obama will be so cash poor he will once again be a part of the igoramus 99%

Psycotte on October 18, 2011 at 3:41 PM

Not much in the way of our liberal trolls to explain the news for us these days. I miss em.

What up?

hawkdriver on October 18, 2011 at 3:46 PM

i don’t think i’ve seen karma work as quickly, efficiently, and bluntly in my life.

bloghooligan on October 18, 2011 at 4:18 PM

So we need to rally around Mittwit so we can outraise Oboobi? I think not. He’ll have to get the $$ from somewhere else, cause I’m going 3rd party if that happens.

AH_C on October 18, 2011 at 4:21 PM

The picture used for this post

Does Obama’s use of the NAZI salute feed into the impression that Obama want’s to be a tyrannical dictator?

DSchoen on October 18, 2011 at 4:58 PM

Well, we’ve got NAZIS for OBAMA in Chicago … maybe he can rally the KKK for OBAMA in the south … or is that asking too much?

joe btfsplk on October 18, 2011 at 5:51 PM

Not to worry the ‘foreign’ money hasn’t started to come in yet? Probably going to be gobs of gosh knows who’s sending money to bho.
L

letget on October 18, 2011 at 2:12 PM

It’s hard for those foreigners to donate when they are in the street overthrowing their own governments.

cobrakai99 on October 18, 2011 at 7:20 PM

test

Dire Straits on October 19, 2011 at 11:54 AM