Rasmussen: Cain 43, Obama 41
posted at 12:45 pm on October 17, 2011 by Ed Morrissey
Is Herman Cain electable? As he keeps the nation’s attention on his unorthodox run for the Republican presidential nomination, Cain has begun to show strength in general-election polling at Rasmussen. In today’s poll, he becomes only the second Republican to take a lead over Obama among likely voters in their surveys:
Whether Herman Cain’s surge in the polls is temporary or has staying power, he’s enjoying a big enough bounce to take a very slight lead over President Obama in a hypothetical 2012 matchup. At the moment, the Georgia businessman is the only Republican with a lead of any kind over Obama, although former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has held a similar advantage several times and is currently trailing the president by just two points.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows Cain attracting 43% support, while Obama earns 41%. Given such a matchup, eight percent (8%) prefer some other candidate, and another eight percent (8%) are undecided.
According to Rasmussen, the only other Republican candidate to lead Obama in this series was Rick Perry, whose electability at the time was his greatest asset. Perry has stumbled considerably since, dropping to 14 points back of Obama in a survey last week, 35/49. Romney came close to Obama two weeks ago, trailing only 41/43.
In the crosstabs, Cain picks up support from voters 40 years and older, winning a 16-point majority among seniors (50/34), but losing 18-29YOs by almost the same margin (35/50) and narrowly losing thirtysomethings, 38/43. Cain only gets 4% of the black vote, an outcome that should remind people that blacks vote with Democrats largely because they share their policy positions. Cain wins a 21-point plurality among independents, 48/29, which should open a few eyes to the reality that regardless of political experience, people are looking for a genuine alternative to Obama.
Interestingly, all of the income demos give narrow splits. Obama wins the under-$20K by only six points despite his recent class-warfare schtick, 39/45. Cain wins every other income demo by six or fewer points, including a narrow 46/44 in the $100K+ demo. Just as curiously, Obama only beats Cain among union households by a seven-point plurality (44/37), while Cain wins non-union households by an even narrower margin of 44/41. Obama beats Cain among those who reject Tea Party affiliation, but only by fifteen points, 34/49. Those who embrace the Tea Party support Cain head to head by 86/7, not surprisingly, while those who are not sure support Cain by 21 points, 48/27.
What does this tell us? Cain seems to be gaining credibility as a candidate on the national stage. That doesn’t necessarily address issues about his organization and his campaign strategy, but it does rebut the notion that no one would take Cain seriously as a nominee if he managed to win in the primaries.
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The next HUGE business will be used car businesses since they will not be assessed a sales tax nationally. In my state, new cars would have an almost 18% sales tax assessed on it.
Voter from WA State on October 17, 2011 at 4:32 PM
Me with Newt? I don’t think so, whatever gave you that idea…
right2bright on October 17, 2011 at 4:33 PM
Schadenfreude is most assuredly NOT in Cain’s camp. He/she barely posts a comment but to whine and moan about 999 these days.
KingGold on October 17, 2011 at 4:34 PM
My support for Sarah was last election…man, don’t give up your job to by a political analyst…sheeesh…
right2bright on October 17, 2011 at 4:35 PM
RedLizard64 on October 17, 2011 at 4:18 PM
First, I am not decided on any. I’m only know that I’m against Romney and Obama.
Second, if you left out Buy Danish from the Romney camp, and sauerkraut, and haner, you’re not keeping accurate tables.
Schadenfreude on October 17, 2011 at 4:37 PM
KingGold on October 17, 2011 at 4:34 PM
Meh, you’re whining here. I said often that I’m against Romney and watching the others. I’m totally against new taxes, unless the old ones are irreversibly dissolved. I know the Australian, Canadian and European systems too well.
I do like Cain, as a person. We’ll see. I only know that I no longer like Romney and I despise Obama.
Schadenfreude on October 17, 2011 at 4:39 PM
President Cain…..That’s what I’m talkin about!
JustJP on October 17, 2011 at 4:39 PM
That’s the truth, and if Mitt keeps mis-stepping even csdeven is looking at Cain…good grief, redlizard is a graduate of Dan Rather school of journalism…
right2bright on October 17, 2011 at 4:40 PM
Indeed…plus, don’t stock either. It was good for smiles, though.
Schadenfreude on October 17, 2011 at 4:41 PM
You two must be drinking, lately. I NEVER supported Romney in this cycle, never, never, except after Thompson in 2008. After he scared the seniors in FL, just like Obama does, I sent him to Hell, for good. Open yer eyes and see/read.
Schadenfreude on October 17, 2011 at 4:43 PM
Re-write
Schadenfreude on October 17, 2011 at 4:44 PM
Your list is cute, but it’s pretty far off. For example, Bluefox is pretty far in Perry water.
Though, I can overlook you putting annoyinglittletwerp in the Palin devotee camp ;)
MeatHeadinCA on October 17, 2011 at 4:47 PM
He’s got this ‘Nista’s support, and I’m not alone.
thebrokenrattle on October 17, 2011 at 4:50 PM
RedLizard64 on October 17, 2011 at 4:18 PM
How could you forget unseen, idesign, gryph and steebxx from the Palin list? Heresy!
Schadenfreude on October 17, 2011 at 4:52 PM
The other post I stated Romney instead of Perry (just a typo), but not here did I?
right2bright on October 17, 2011 at 5:01 PM
Sorry, don’t get it…
right2bright on October 17, 2011 at 5:02 PM
Cain only gets 4% of blacks? There really is no hope for the GOP in that demo is there?
angryed on October 17, 2011 at 5:07 PM
This will change if he’s nominated. And if he gets even 10 or 15%, the democrats are in grave and lasting danger.
rrpjr on October 17, 2011 at 5:09 PM
25-30% of the blacks will vote for him…he is what every black father and mother wants his kid to be…successful, intelligent, hard working, boisterous, he is the model of a successful black man.
The difference between Obama and Cain is more than Political, it is social, and Cain has lived the “true black experience”…no contest.
Obama may lose up to 50% of the black vote, it will be historic.
right2bright on October 17, 2011 at 5:16 PM
Assuming Cain and his low-budget campaign wins the GOP nomination, it will be largely because of our wired and wireless society and (relatively) free and instantaneous info/news/rumors dissemination.
Therefore, Cain should officially thank the inventor of the interweb, ManBearPig, by offering him the number two spot.
Is this the “Cain fall/winter” ???
fred5678 on October 17, 2011 at 5:28 PM
999 tax calculator.
DanaSmiles on October 17, 2011 at 5:38 PM
manbearpig never stopped being a number #2.
jdkchem on October 17, 2011 at 5:47 PM
Sorry, not you, the commenter keeping tables/track of us, stalking us…
Schadenfreude on October 17, 2011 at 6:21 PM
Herman Cain is the ONLY GOP candidate who has stated that OWS is a Team Obama construct. This shows me the man can identify the real problem, target it, and upend the lefty memes. To me, this makes him the only choice in the current field.
If Perry decides to attack OWS, and not anti-amnesty Americans, really hone his energy plans, and unleash his inner Cheney during the debates, I will reconsider him as well.
Mutnodjmet on October 17, 2011 at 6:24 PM
999 tax calculator.
DanaSmiles on October 17, 2011 at 5:38 PM
Then there is the health insurance that your employer probably pays at least a portion for you that you will have to pay under 999 because employers will no longer be able to deduct labor costs . . . payroll and benefits no longer deductible. Let’s say that is 35% of their expenses. That is a low #. Let’s say that their overhead, not including the only things that may be deducted under 999 is another 35%.
For a business that maybe has $1M in revenue. They can only deduct investments and product purchaed if only produced in the US. So let say that is 10% of gross revenue. That leaves them with gross revenue of $900K. That leaves them with a tax bill of $81K. What they have left of their $1M is $139K (or around $11K per month). Out of that $11K per month comes their own personal 9% sales tax (in my state closer to 18%) plus 9% income tax. That leaves the owners of that corporation around $9,020 per month. Better be no more than 2 owners.
Meanwhile the employees are pay for their own health insurance. Don’t know what your employers are paying for you, but I would think it is close $500-600 per month at the very least. That would be no longer offered.
Voter from WA State on October 17, 2011 at 6:41 PM
I have no problem with that..:)
Dire Straits on October 17, 2011 at 8:04 PM
Got me correct, wow man, where do you get the time to come up with that? Clever.
nswider on October 17, 2011 at 8:14 PM
Umm,no–thanks to Obamacare, my ins at my hospital has already been dropped…I’m paying for it myself now…have to work an extra night just for that…
lovingmyUSA on October 17, 2011 at 10:50 PM
You’re assuming that present conditions are not affected by distortions introduced by the original corporate tax rate. If the same company, with the same employees, can increase its marginal productivity and (sans the 35% corporate tax rate) reap the benefits of that increased productivity, the net gains can more than account for whatever benefits the company currently pays.
Punishing success leads to less of it. More precisely, punitive taxation suppresses productivity at the margin.
Anything that keeps more wealth in the hands of those that create it (entrepreneurs) and keeps it away from those that destroy it (government bureaucrats), is good.
spmat on October 17, 2011 at 11:10 PM
That’s a great point! Although I am self employed, my hubby carries our insurance through his employer and he says he doubts the 999 would ever pass. And, if it did he says his company has to hide so much money, he wouldn’t think they would drop this benefit. So far I have asked several Cain supporters and no one will answer. I’m still going to support Cain because the only other options at this point are far worse.
DanaSmiles on October 18, 2011 at 8:05 AM
I don’t have the time or the desire to learn another language under Cain….
oppotoonity = opportunity
manipalate = manipulate
cacalate = calculate
valya = value
From the 10/18 debate.
Very presidential…
stacman on October 18, 2011 at 8:37 PM
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