Gallup shows Obama trailing generic Republican, 46/38

posted at 8:45 am on October 14, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

I think I have this election licked.  All we need to do is find a Republican candidate with plain wrapping and a blue stripe:

U.S. registered voters, by 46% to 38%, continue to say they are more likely to vote for the Republican presidential candidate than for Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election. The generic Republican led by the same eight-percentage-point margin in September, and also held a lead in July. The August update, conducted just after an agreement to raise the federal debt limit, had Obama with a slight edge.

The current results are based on a Gallup poll conducted Oct. 6-9. The eight-point lead for the Republican candidate persists, 50% to 42%, when taking into account the leanings of undecided voters.

Is this really a good indicator of future outcomes?  That’s arguable. Gallup notes that an incumbent President 20 years ago had a 17-point lead over the generic challenger, and who could forget the glorious second term of George H. W. Bush? On the other hand, his son had a narrow 3-point lead at this stage over a generic opponent and won the next year by just about the same margin.

Of course, an incumbent President should have a substantial lead over an unknown challenger, at least if that President wants a second term.  When an incumbent falls below 50%, a risk arises of having undecideds break sharply for “change,” and Obama is 12 points below that threshold.  That’s not in the “change” category, that’s in the “jump ship” category.  This is the second time in a row that Gallup has Obama at this low re-elect support against a generic challenger, both of which are new lows in this series.  It indicates that his new class-warfare schtick isn’t playing well with voters, at least not at the moment.

However, Republicans won’t be nominating a generic opponent; they will have to nominate someone whose weaknesses will get tested by the Obama campaign for months, while Obama’s weaknesses are already well known.  This poll shows that the eventual Republican nominee will face an electorate that wants a change — but the nominee will still have to make the case.

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Who’s the most generic? I agree we have at least one “generic Politician” but is there a generic republican?

rihar on October 14, 2011 at 8:47 AM

Anyone but Obama it isn’t……yet?

Mord on October 14, 2011 at 8:48 AM

Good, then we stop with the stupid who does better against Obama polls which actually only measures name recognition.

Bill C on October 14, 2011 at 8:50 AM

I have a very liberal/socialist friend who has already confided in me that he will not vote for Obama. He may not vote for the Republican, but a no-vote is as good for me.

Obama will lose. Count it.

BierManVA on October 14, 2011 at 8:52 AM

and who could forget the glorious second term of George H. W. Bush?

Not really a fair comparison as the economy started to tank during the campaign thanks, in no small part, to his breaking his “no new taxes” pledge. And he was rightfully pounded over the head for it.

lorien1973 on October 14, 2011 at 8:52 AM

I like Generic over Romney. Everyday I get a little more frustrated that rather then electing a conservative we are going to elect Romney. After suffering through 4 years of Obamaville, we need to be rewarded with a real conservative.

jeffn21 on October 14, 2011 at 8:52 AM

This doesn’t help Cain. You can’t find a less generic Republican than him.

/

Doughboy on October 14, 2011 at 8:53 AM

However, Republicans won’t be nominating a generic opponent; they will have to nominate someone whose weaknesses will get tested by the Obama campaign for months, while Obama’s weaknesses are already well known.

So do we want to nominate the Republican who is responsible for a universal health care law that made his states taxes go up or do we want to nominate a candidate whose state has one of the best records of job creation during this recession.

Bill C on October 14, 2011 at 8:54 AM

plain wrapping and a blue stripe

Well, we all know which “Republican” has a blue stripe a mile wide. Unfortunately, there’s nothing inside the wrapping.

ElectricPhase on October 14, 2011 at 8:55 AM

It’s actually Gen. Eric Republican. I’ve met him before; nice man, but a little quiet.

Mutnodjmet on October 14, 2011 at 8:57 AM

The way we’re going we’ll be lucky if this poor sick Republic isn’t engulfed in violent street wars by next November and the election called off.

rplat on October 14, 2011 at 8:58 AM

I think now, based on the way the campaign has shaken out, that there probably is a candidate on our side who does embody all three legs of the conservative stool, and that’s Romney

– Rush Limbaugh

hahah… Rush is such a flip-flopper

gatorboy on October 14, 2011 at 9:01 AM

I like Generic over Romney. Everyday I get a little more frustrated that rather then electing a conservative we are going to elect Romney. After suffering through 4 years of Obamaville, we need to be rewarded with a real conservative.

jeffn21 on October 14, 2011 at 8:52 AM

jeffn21: I know several conservative state in 2008 that they were either NOT voting or, if voting, voting for Obama. Why? McCain wasn’t conservative enough for them. They thought the 2012 bonus was going to be a Reaganesque conservative.

Too bad the party is pushing a Massachusetts liberal who signed off on the template of Obamacare. Also, the OWS activities are directed and bankers — and a window into how the Obama campaign is going to attack Romney in 2012.

This is not the scenario that these conservatives had envisioned.

Mutnodjmet on October 14, 2011 at 9:03 AM

This is not the scenario that these conservatives had envisioned.

Mutnodjmet on October 14, 2011 at 9:03 AM

that’s how life rolls… and so what is the option? elect someone who has NEVER held a public office for another 4 years of learning on the job?

gatorboy on October 14, 2011 at 9:05 AM

There is a crazy theory out there that these protests Occupy _________ is just the beginning. That there is a behind the scenes movement to turn this into violent protests, complete with marches of tens of thousands.

Some have even said that there may be such a swell of “violence” that the President might have to step in and declare a state of emergency or declare martial law to “restore order” right before any elections.

So these polls wouldn’t matter would they?

Besides that the CASTRATED GOP would go along with any declaration of emergency right? Who could oppose “restoring order”?

PappyD61 on October 14, 2011 at 9:06 AM

The “Occupiers!” will be heading for the Gallup main office next week to voice their displeasure.

Bishop on October 14, 2011 at 9:07 AM

PappyD61 on October 14, 2011 at 9:06 AM

These are liberals not Arabs though. Their grievances are manufactured. They will be a loud pain in the ass, but I doubt they will get violent.

Anton on October 14, 2011 at 9:17 AM

Where do we find this elusive “Generic Republican”? And more importantly, can he construct cogent sentences?

mudskipper on October 14, 2011 at 9:18 AM

Will the Occupy Wall Street violence help or hurt Obama in 2012? The violence begins. One of the protesters got flattened by a motocycle. Violence this morning in New York.

http://themorningspew.com/2011/10/14/occupy-wall-street-violence-begins/

bloggless on October 14, 2011 at 9:19 AM

However, Republicans won’t be nominating a generic opponent; they will have to nominate someone whose weaknesses will get tested by the Obama campaign and eviscerated by the 99% of the liberal mainstream media for months (I mean totally freakin’ trashed, dude), while Obama’s weaknesses are already well known (but to be played down exponentially). This poll shows that the eventual Republican nominee will face an electorate that wants a change — but the nominee will still have to put on a superman cape to be able to fly over the misleading media filter and make the case.

I humbly fixed. Please put that check in the mail asap.

RepubChica on October 14, 2011 at 9:20 AM

I’m willing to bet “generic” will be Romney/Perry or Perry/Romney and Cain will have a “Yea-ahh-ahh!” Howard Dean moment.

Marcus on October 14, 2011 at 9:21 AM

There is a crazy theory out there that these protests Occupy _________ is just the beginning. That there is a behind the scenes movement to turn this into violent protests, complete with marches of tens of thousands.

I just don’t see this happening. Many of these protests have about 50 people at best. Even with all the union thuggery available, it’s going to be very difficult to produce tens of thousands.

I do see violence as a possibility, though; it can’t be ruled out. These children can’t wait for the opportunity to Resist The Man.

Missy on October 14, 2011 at 9:25 AM

OT/ but So Bloomie caved in and the horde immediately escalated into violent confrontation? I never saw that coming….

sandee on October 14, 2011 at 9:25 AM

There is a crazy theory out there that these protests Occupy _________ is just the beginning. That there is a behind the scenes movement to turn this into violent protests, complete with marches of tens of thousands.

Some have even said that there may be such a swell of “violence” that the President might have to step in and declare a state of emergency or declare martial law to “restore order” right before any elections.

So these polls wouldn’t matter would they?

Besides that the CASTRATED GOP would go along with any declaration of emergency right? Who could oppose “restoring order”?

PappyD61 on October 14, 2011 at 9:06 AM

Nah. They’ll just vote Democrat like the always do.

Browncoatone on October 14, 2011 at 9:27 AM

gatorboy on October 14, 2011 at 9:05 AM

If you think the country’s situation right now is because of lack of experience on Obama’s part, I have some swampland to sell you. He has done exactly what he plainly stated he would do. He’s a mistake by the voters, not of inexperience.

Cindy Munford on October 14, 2011 at 9:46 AM

I think now, based on the way the campaign has shaken out, that there probably is a candidate on our side who does embody all three legs of the conservative stool, and that’s Romney
– Rush Limbaugh

hahah… Rush is such a flip-flopper

gatorboy on October 14, 2011 at 9:01 AM

When I think of stool, Romney’s the first thing that comes to mind.

Laura in Maryland on October 14, 2011 at 9:49 AM

Just wait until the 4th quarter starts. That’s when Obama will start throwing up bricks like you’ve never seen. Wait, that isn’t right…

NotCoach on October 14, 2011 at 9:52 AM

Who’s the most generic?

Well, Ed, clearly the title of “Mr. Generic” belongs to the plain, vanilla Congressman from Texas, Mr. Paul.

JohnGalt23 on October 14, 2011 at 9:52 AM

Cindy Munford on October 14, 2011 at 9:46 AM

that’s silly.. you think obama had experience in destroying this country before he got elected?

gatorboy on October 14, 2011 at 9:55 AM

I saw this on althouse;

“The only shovel-ready job Obama has made is the one of making America dig its own grave.” – Kirby Olson

Dasher on October 14, 2011 at 10:05 AM

I was wondering how McCain got the 2008 nomination. Everyone thought they were voting for a generic Republican, but checked the box for geriatric Republican.

percysunshine on October 14, 2011 at 10:06 AM

I think I’ll change my name to Generic E. Republican (Super Genius) and I’ll be a shoe in for the presidency. :)

simkeith on October 14, 2011 at 10:09 AM

gatorboy on October 14, 2011 at 9:55 AM

I think the policies he rammed down our throats and the results of them were intentional. The guy said in an interview before he was elected that he planned to shut down coal fired plants and “electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket. ..”, Obamacare has always been a stinker in the polls and yet it is the law of the land. He’s not an inexperienced accident.

Cindy Munford on October 14, 2011 at 10:16 AM

that’s how life rolls… and so what is the option? elect someone who has NEVER held a public office for another 4 years of learning on the job?

gatorboy on October 14, 2011 at 9:05 AM

A wee bit defensive, dontcha think? I didn’t state a preference for any of the candidates, nor do I have one.

If you are going to troll the comments to aid Team Romney, you should be more discerning.

Mutnodjmet on October 14, 2011 at 10:22 AM

Obama will lose. Count it.

BierManVA on October 14, 2011 at 8:52 AM

The left can win by losing if we nominate Romney.

besser tot als rot on October 14, 2011 at 10:24 AM

Well, Ed, clearly the title of “Mr. Generic” belongs to the plain, vanilla Congressman from Texas, Mr. Paul.

JohnGalt23 on October 14, 2011 at 9:52 AM

I think Gary Johnson is more generic than Ron Paul.

besser tot als rot on October 14, 2011 at 10:25 AM

The good news is we can dump the “he has the best chance of beating Obama” meme.
Now we can focus on who best serves us, knowing that we will win.
Sorry Mitt-bots…took away your only bumper sticker…

right2bright on October 14, 2011 at 10:33 AM

The stars are aligned. This is is our best chance to elect a conservative president. Do not settle for anything less!

CliffHanger on October 14, 2011 at 10:36 AM

that’s silly.. you think obama had experience in destroying this country before he got elected?

gatorboy on October 14, 2011 at 9:55 AM

Excuse me, where have you been…Alinksy was his mentor, Dorn his best buddies…his life was wrapped up in radical thought and policy…what do you think a Community Organizer does…hint, look at Wall Street.

right2bright on October 14, 2011 at 10:36 AM

gatorboy on October 14, 2011 at 9:55 AM

And just to piss you off, Romney is Obamalite at best.

Cindy Munford on October 14, 2011 at 10:42 AM

I have a question. Romney supporters keep asking conservatives if they’ll support Romney in the general election. My question is, if a conservative wins the nomination, will Romney supporters, A) vote for the conservative, B) vote for 0bama, C) stay home?

CliffHanger on October 14, 2011 at 10:47 AM

OT/ but So Bloomie caved in and the horde immediately escalated into violent confrontation? I never saw that coming….

sandee on October 14, 2011 at 9:25 AM

I also heard former Mayor Rudy Giuliani last night saying that if HE were still mayor, he wouldn’t have let the protesters sleep in the streets or parks–let them get a hotel room or go to a homeless shelter. Gee…renting a hotel room might enrich some greedy corporation that owns hotels, and the REAL homeless might not be too kind to these spoiled brats crashing their pity party!

If only Bloomberg had the cojones that Rudy had…

Steve Z on October 14, 2011 at 10:57 AM

CliffHanger on October 14, 2011 at 10:47 AM

I’m sure they will, most of the are “Party” first folks.

Cindy Munford on October 14, 2011 at 10:59 AM

Sounds about right. Who, though, can pick up that other 6-7% to ensure an electoral college victory? If the Republican doesn’t win decisively, be assured we will see months of recounts that will make ’00 look like nothing. Even if Obama loses in a landslide, fulfilling the hopes of all sensible Americans, I expect to see a level of malignance from the West Wing that puts this administration’s day-to-day petulance to shame.

This will not be pretty.

Wingo on October 14, 2011 at 11:14 AM

So we have some so called “conservatives” to blame for Obama. What a really lousy excuse to vote for someone who has done so much damage to the US it may take decades to fix. I just don’t understand this convoluted thinking.

Are there really people out there who think that we would have been in this bad of shape with McCain in the WH? If so, they need their heads examined.

Voter from WA State on October 14, 2011 at 10:02 AM

There are lots of conservatives on this blog who think that one of the other Republican candidates would be more conservative than Romney. But if Romney wins the nomination, and so-called “conservatives” don’t vote for him, we will get 4 more years of the Hussein the Master of Disaster, which must be avoided AT ALL COSTS. Anybody But Obama, with noseplugs if necessary!

I heard an interesting theory on the 2012 election from a guest on a conservative talk-radio show last night. If solid Tea Party conservatives unite and Republicans keep the House and take the Senate in 2012, both houses of Congress will be pushing a solid conservative agenda in 2013. If Romney is elected President, he will sign whatever Congress passes (including repeal of ObamneyCare), and be dragged to the right by Congress. Romney would not risk vetoing bills passed by a Congress controlled by his own party! If Obama is re-elected, he will veto everything Congress passes, and Republicans won’t have enough votes to override, so we would be stuck with 4 more years of gridlock.

If Romney wins the nomination, we need to support him, and count on a Tea Party Congress to move him rightward!

Steve Z on October 14, 2011 at 11:15 AM

Generic Republican +12

Second look at Tpaw????

phreshone on October 14, 2011 at 11:24 AM

When I think of stool, Romney’s the first thing that comes to mind.

Laura in Maryland on October 14, 2011 at 9:49 AM

Lol.

Bill C on October 14, 2011 at 11:24 AM

that’s silly.. you think obama had experience in destroying this country before he got elected?

gatorboy on October 14, 2011 at 9:55 AM

How silly you are. All he wanted to do. He’s been very successful in his plan. Give him another term and he’ll finish the land off.

Schadenfreude on October 14, 2011 at 11:28 AM

I think I have this election licked. All we need to do is find a Republican candidate with plain wrapping and a blue stripe..

..great minds, stolen thunder, separated at birth, my first reaction, etc.

(Perhaps you should rent and watch “Repo Man” again, again?)

The War Planner on October 14, 2011 at 11:45 AM

The most Generic?

Given the Populist establishment within the GOP… that would probably be Romney.

Not my pick, though.

I’m leaning toward Herman Cain. Or anyone other than Romney. So, yeah, with my luck it’ll probably be Romney I have to vote for… or maybe I’ll just stay home. In my state it won’t matter anyway.

Lawrence on October 14, 2011 at 12:35 PM

Romney is the most milk toast RINO in the race so he’d be the easiest to get elected. However he’d be disastrous as POTUS IMO for that very reason. He’s not going to fight for anything for conservatives, will pass pretty much anything that’s put on his desk by congress, and will just be a seat holder for four years.

Benaiah on October 14, 2011 at 12:43 PM

All of these polls are garbage, and are in no way an accurate indicator of who stands where. I see this posted on here, and last night on Fox News they were showing Obozo leading all GOP candidates in head-to-head matchups. Who’s right? Do we really know all the subtleties included in the polling. How could anyone believe at this stage that Obozo could hold a lead against even a OWS hippie?

stacman on October 14, 2011 at 1:12 PM

Comparing Bush Sr to Obama is not appropriate. It’s much easier to fall in popularity the way Bush did than it is to rise in popularity the way Obama will have to do.

Think of it in your personal life. How many times do you make a judgement on someone that he’s a douche then change your mind later vs. make a judgement that someone’s cool and then change your mind. The former seldom happens, the latter happens often.

angryed on October 14, 2011 at 1:45 PM

When it’s GOOD to be a DEMOCRAT!

Mutnodjmet on October 14, 2011 at 1:51 PM

This has been Romney’s strategy all along.

He truly is playing on a far different level than anyone else.

The others are all caught up in the weeds of the swamp, while Romney is in the free water in the middle of the stream.

If Romney pulls this off, this campaign will be studied for a long long time. He has been brilliant so far.

petunia on October 14, 2011 at 3:29 PM

I have a question. Romney supporters keep asking conservatives if they’ll support Romney in the general election. My question is, if a conservative wins the nomination, will Romney supporters, A) vote for the conservative, B) vote for 0bama, C) stay home?

CliffHanger on October 14, 2011 at 10:47 AM

I would be hard pressed to support Perry. He is simply icky. And I think he is a scandal-in-waiting with his pay-for-play past.

Any of the others, sure no problem. Well, not Paul or Johnson, but how likely is that?

And if Romney loses fair and square. If there is some kind of trickery I would not like that.

The far right does need to lighten up on Romney though because they are just flat out lying now and I am pretty sick of it. Mark Levin is the worst, I feel like switching to Independent rather that stay in the same party with someone who lies as easily as Mark Levin. This is total corruption. I won’t be part of a party that has to win on corruption and lies.

petunia on October 14, 2011 at 3:35 PM

I’m pretty generic but nobody ever notices me.

IlikedAUH2O on October 14, 2011 at 9:28 PM