The Iranian terror plot: Why would Iran do it the way they allegedly did it?

posted at 6:51 pm on October 12, 2011 by Allahpundit

I’m asking earnestly. After thinking about it for a full day, I can’t come up with a theory. To be clear, I don’t doubt the DOJ’s account: Read Andy McCarthy on why 10/11 Truthers are goofy to think so many Justice Department personnel would be party to a trumped-up case with explosive geopolitical implications. They apparently have hard evidence, including a wire transfer of $100,000 and phone calls from the lead suspect to an alleged Quds Force member in Iran. But that doesn’t answer the questions of why Iran would do it, why they’d do it now, and why they’d do it here. In fact, even the regime’s archenemies in the Iranian dissident community can’t answer those questions:

As Iranians struggled Wednesday to comprehend an alleged plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to Washington, analysts here agreed that even if U.S. charges of official Iranian involvement were true, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his government likely had nothing to do with the scheme…

Amid new levels of infighting within Iran’s opaque leadership, Ahmadinejad at present wields no influence over the country’s two main intelligence and security organizations: the Ministry of Intelligence and the Revolutionary Guard Corps. They are firmly under the control of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Even against the backdrop of this power struggle, Iranian dissidents and analysts are hard-pressed to come up with reasons for any of Iran’s leaders to undertake such a risky plot. Even if carried out successfully, it probably would have been quickly blamed on Iran, the analysts noted.

Right. If Iran knew that it would have been found out and was intent on committing an act of war on the U.S. and Saudi Arabia anyway, why not do something closer to home where their odds of success are much better? They could have tried to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in any number of Middle Eastern countries where the Quds Force might more easily infiltrate. They could have targeted Robert Ford, the U.S. ambassador to Syria, who’s been making trouble for their pal Assad by showing solidarity with local protesters. They could have plotted some sort of spectacular attack against U.S. troops in Iraq and/or Afghanistan, either large scale a la the 1983 Beirut barracks bombings or smaller scale a la the kidnappings and murders of five American soldiers/a> in Karbala four years ago. The Quds Force is Iran’s A-team, equivalent to the Mossad in Israel. As Robert Baer, a former CIA analyst, told WaPo, “If they wanted to come after you, you’d be dead already.” And yet, their big idea for striking a blow against the Great Satan and its Wahhabist puppet in Riyadh was to … hook a used-car salesman from Corpus Christi up with an alleged member of a Mexican drug cartel? Seriously?

Speaking of which, what would the cartel get out of this arrangement except a bit of cash that it doesn’t need and a lot lot lot of new scrutiny from the world’s greatest military power? Shouldn’t Iran have known something was fishy when the supposed cartel member expressed interest in the plot? Time wonders:

One of my TIME colleagues in Mexico, Ioan Grillo, whose book, El Narco: Inside Mexico’s Criminal Insurgency, is being published this month, agrees. “For the Zetas, political murder is done concretely to protect their own business interests inside Mexico,” Grillo told me today. “It’s just not their modus operandi to carry out political murders in the U.S.”

Had Arbabsiar actually been dealing with the Zetas – and not a U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration informant who posed as a Zeta operative – they probably would have conveyed that reality to him fairly quickly. And they would have likely dismissed the $1.5 million that Arbabsiar allegedly offered the D.E.A. informant. Ditto for the opium the Iranians allegedly threw into the deal. The Zetas, after all, are part of a Mexican drug-trafficking, kidnapping and extortion industry that rakes in as much as $40 billion a year. To risk that kind of cash flow by carrying out a five-alarm international hit for a million and a half bucks seems a non-starter. It also seems an organization like the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, for whom the Justice Department says Arbabsiar may have been working, should know better. Arbabsiar, who lives near Mexico in Corpus Christi, Texas, certainly should have been wiser.

Mafias like the Zetas don’t like to draw attention to themselves for business reasons. Iran, which has some experience with mafia tactics, should have figured that out before proposing a bomb plot in America’s capital targeting a hugely influential diplomat. In fact, read this Danger Room post for an overview of just how bizarrely amateurish the whole operation was, right down to the kitschy euphemisms used for executing someone. Here’s Robert Baer again, writing in Time and trying to make sense of it all:

In its 30-year history of attacking the West, the Quds Force went out of its way never to be caught with a smoking gun in hand. It always used well-vetted proxies, invariably Muslim believers devoted to Khomeini’s revolution. And when the operation was particularly sensitive, they gave the job to Lebanon’s militant Shi’ite Hizballah, organization the Iranians themselves had founded and which has an unsurpassed record in political murder. Hizballah has cells all over the world, including in the United States. But the point of it all was that if caught — and they were, more than once — Iran still enjoyed plausible deniability, a commodity in this business worth its weight in gold. So, if this plot was genuine, why didn’t the Iranians use tried and tested Hizballah networks and keep Iranian nationals, much less unknown Mexican narcos, out of it?

The possible explanations are disturbing as the plot itself. One would be that the Iranian regime has lost control of the IRGC. In that scenario, the convoluted internal political calculus of Iran’s internal power struggles would prompt the faction the plot to have Iranian fingerprints all over this, in order to provoke a confrontation with Washington — in their minds, such a confrontation would be the only way to reunify Iranians behind Khomeini’s revolution.

Another possibility is that this is the work of the Iranian opposition, presumably intending to frame the regime, and draw the United States into conflict that would bring down the mullahs. The Iranian opposition group Mujahedeen e-Khalq, which remains on the U.S. list of international terror organizations despite a strenuous lobbying effort to get itself delisted, is perfectly capable of pulling something like this off.

I don’t know about the second theory but the first makes no sense to me since a Quds Force operation, whether or not authorized by the regime, still should have been more professional than this. If they’re looking to goad America into war for whatever political reason, a successful operation that blew up a few ambassadors/buildings would have gone a lot further than this failed attempt has. As it is, U.S. officials say that our retaliation will consist of isolating Iran globally with new sanctions, blah blah blah. Obama couldn’t have gotten away with something that low key if blood had actually been spilled, so if the IRGC really was intent on starting a war, they did an awfully lame job of it. One other possibility that’s sure to be popular with Obama’s critics is that Iran did this simply to show how vulnerable America is under Obama and to test his mettle by daring him to respond to an act of war in kind, knowing that he’d settle for some soft diplomatic countermeasure instead. The problem with that theory is that The One is a big fan of covert operations himself and, as we know from the Bin Laden raid and the Awlaki strike, is perfectly willing to use special forces and the CIA against leaders of terrorist regimes. He won’t order a bombing run on Tehran but he might very well target higher-ups in the regime and/or the IRGC for revenge. And again, Iran would, or should, know that, which makes the price of ordering this terror plot potentially very, very high for the people who ordered it. All the more reason not to have done it. And yet, according to the DOJ, they did. Why?

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Because they sense a weak President…I think it might just that simple.

Oil Can on October 12, 2011 at 6:54 PM

Read Andy McCarthy on why 10/11 Truthers are goofy

Ouch. I think that’s a touch overboard to equate questioning the timing of a high-level bust in connection to the percolation of a career-ending scandal with accusing the government of slaughtering 3,000 people.

KingGold on October 12, 2011 at 6:56 PM

That’s the dangerous thing with the Iranian leadership, they don’t need a reason, they’re all a bunch of whack jobs.

vcferlita on October 12, 2011 at 6:56 PM

I dunno, Allah. Maybe you’re giving these people too much credit for being complex thinkers…Remember this?

“The Washington Post reports that the Saudi government helped the US (and others) interrupt a terrorist plot to send bombs to Jewish organizations in the US. It appears that Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula sought to use courier services to send doctored ink-jet printers, with their ink cartridges replaced by bombs, to the US through UPS and FedEx. The Saudis were able to provide tracking numbers on the packages which were intercepted in the UAE and the UK”

Now granted, the previous involved al Qaeda, but aren’t they all drawing from the same brain trust?

cynccook on October 12, 2011 at 6:58 PM

The Iranian terror plot: Why would Iran do it the way they allegedly did it?

Because this is the sort of thing they do at home and nobody notices, so they think it’ll work everywhere?

You might become the Tic-Tac-Toe champion at the daycare center, but nowhere else.

I think its entirely plausible that the Iranian mullahs are trying be Tic-Tac-Toe champions of the world.

BobMbx on October 12, 2011 at 6:58 PM

Maybe the Iranians are just stupid.

SlaveDog on October 12, 2011 at 6:59 PM

Ouch. I think that’s a touch overboard to equate questioning the timing of a high-level bust in connection to the percolation of a career-ending scandal with accusing the government of slaughtering 3,000 people.

He’s not talking about people who question the timing, he’s talking about people who think the whole alleged plot is phony.

Allahpundit on October 12, 2011 at 6:59 PM

Shall we send them a message!
(sarc)
——-

bomb bomb iran
Uploaded by IDFco12 on Aug 15,
2008
****************

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jb6nR_kdk9w&feature=related

canopfor on October 12, 2011 at 7:00 PM

It could be they already have nuclear weapons and figure they are therefore immune from serious retaliation.

cool breeze on October 12, 2011 at 7:01 PM

Why overthink this? How about because they are not very smart?

neoavatara on October 12, 2011 at 7:01 PM

Paper tiger theory methinks

cmsinaz on October 12, 2011 at 7:02 PM

I had the same question immediately. Iran simply would not risk the war that would happen if they commited a bombing on American soil just a few miles away from the White house, the Senate, the House and the Supreme Court. They would know the devastation they would get in return would be more than they could bare. Just seems silly to think Iranian government had any idea about this.

astonerii on October 12, 2011 at 7:03 PM

Read Andy McCarthy on why 10/11 Truthers are goofy to think so many Justice Department personnel would be party to a trumped-up case with explosive geopolitical implications.

Whoa, AP! Hold on a sec. I don’t think this is trumped up, but before you think that the DOJ wouldn’t ham-fist their way into an explosive geopolitical situation, may I remind you that the DOJ is in the middle of having to explain why they sold hundreds of small arms to Mexico’s domestic terrorists, which have resulted in hundreds of Mexican citizen deaths, while not coordinating one bit of it with our Mexican partners? This administration is dangerously reckless.

Weight of Glory on October 12, 2011 at 7:03 PM

Good one Canopfor :)

cmsinaz on October 12, 2011 at 7:03 PM

And again, Iran would, or should, know that, which makes the price of ordering this terror plot potentially very, very high for the people who ordered it. All the more reason not to have done it. And yet, according to the DOJ, they did. Why?

How certain are we that they don’t already have a nuclear weapon?

JohnGalt23 on October 12, 2011 at 7:04 PM

He’s not talking about people who question the timing, he’s talking about people who think the whole alleged plot is phony.

Allahpundit on October 12, 2011 at 6:59 PM

I didn’t get that idea from his piece, exactly, but whatever.

KingGold on October 12, 2011 at 7:04 PM

Well there’s one thing you can’t argue with; it’s none of our business if these people develop nukes!

/Ron Paul!!!!!!

BuckNutty on October 12, 2011 at 7:04 PM

Ouch. I think that’s a touch overboard to equate questioning the timing of a high-level bust in connection to the percolation of a career-ending scandal with accusing the government of slaughtering 3,000 people.

Really? This Iranian thing happened in June. JUNE! And just now do we hear about it, and on cue, the State Department issues travel warnings based on the “bust”…not in June, but now.

I don’t think its overboard at all. I think its a bulls-eye.

BobMbx on October 12, 2011 at 7:04 PM

#1 Better propaganda. Strike at the heart of the enemy sort of a deal.
#2 and most important. They know we will do nothing about it. Why not swing away at that homerun with no negative consequences for trying.

I really think it is this simple.

uskorea on October 12, 2011 at 7:05 PM

Read Andy McCarthy on why 10/11 Truthers are goofy to think so many Justice Department personnel would be party to a trumped-up case with explosive geopolitical implications.

To not trust Justice Department personnel (has McCarthy never heard of “Fast and Furious”?) in no way requires that one be a “10/11 Truthers”, whatever that is.

InkyBinkyBarleyBoo on October 12, 2011 at 7:06 PM

How certain are we that they don’t already have a nuclear weapon?

JohnGalt23 on October 12, 2011 at 7:04 PM

Because it hasn’t detonated in Saudi Arabia. We aren’t the target. The Saudi family is.

If Iran were to take out SA, they become the power in the Middle East. Taking out SA also all but decimates the US and other western powers financially (no oil from the ME for anybody).

BobMbx on October 12, 2011 at 7:08 PM

Good one Canopfor :)

cmsinaz on October 12, 2011 at 7:03 PM

cmsionaz:Haha,here’s another,its from the linky,I’m gonna post,
from a good US Female Intelliigence website!:)
==================================

Another US Meassage!

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CCxnJZWje98/TpG7qpnQUoI/AAAAAAAAH2c/fWBZQkY6XIg/s1600/2naviesin1.jpg

canopfor on October 12, 2011 at 7:08 PM

The “Iranians are not very smart” argument doesn’t make sense since, as the article above quotes, they’ve been smart in conducting operations like this. Or at least not this ham-fisted.

They assassinated a number of former Iranian officials in Europe and they didn’t hire guns to do it.

The Mexican cartel angle makes no sense to me at all.

And if they wanted to start a war with us, I can imagine a lot of other provocations beside this.

It is interesting that the Saudi ambassador who was targetted reportedly had a personal left from King Abdullah that he presented to Obama. And then immediately went back to Saudi Arabia with a message from Obama the next day.

This is really strange…

SteveMG on October 12, 2011 at 7:08 PM

Probably some iranian dude that tried to impress a chick by telling her that he was in quds force. Then he had to play it out like some bad three’s company plot, and the whole thing went horribly wrong.

or it was the Jooooooooooooos.

rw on October 12, 2011 at 7:10 PM

But that doesn’t answer the questions of why Iran would do it, why they’d do it now, and why they’d do it here.

I’ll throw out a theory I thought of today. I believe Iran is getting worried about all of the revolts they’re seeing in neighboring Arab nations and believe their days are numbered until the revolts start in their country.

The only way they can get their people to rally behind their regime once again is by starting a war with America, this way they (the regime and the Iranian people) have a common enemy, America.

Just a theory…

Liberty or Death on October 12, 2011 at 7:10 PM

CONGRATULATIONS HOT AIR! This is the 500th story you’ve captioned with “Nuance.” We knew you could do it! ::Pops champagne::

Here’s to HA’s tradition of imagination and originality!

Constantine on October 12, 2011 at 7:11 PM

The only way they can get their people to rally behind their regime once again is by starting a war with America, this way they (the regime and the Iranian people) have a common enemy, America.

Okay, but trying to kill the Saudi ambassador to the US isn’t a smart idea to start that war.

Attacking our ships in the Gulf? Attacking our embassy in Baghdad? Okay but not this.

SteveMG on October 12, 2011 at 7:11 PM

Look the Iranian leaders are zenophobes and not likely to know much about other nations.

Heck some Germans knew hitler was out of his element in world affairs. And Yamamoto warned the ignorant japanese leadership that the US was more powerful than they thought.

I can see Iran’s leadership being clueless on what actions we might take.

William Amos on October 12, 2011 at 7:12 PM

Definition of CASUS BELLI:

..an event or action that justifies or allegedly justifies a war or conflict
============

American Exceptionalism, Foreign Policy Initiatives, Foreign Affairs, Diplomatic, Intelligence and Military Analysis
********************************************************

Wednesday, October 12, 2011
al Qods!
**********
**********

The audacious reports about Persia’s Revo Guards al Qods Force prepping and plotting to detonate multiple detonations on Great Satan’s holy home turf is bloody off the charts y’all!

1st off – the proxy wars in Persian Gulf betwixt the Kingdom of Wahabbia Arabia and Preacher Command are getting all amped up. Willing to be killing around 200 Americans to make a point to Saudilanders is riskily risque beyond repair.

As is the amateur time aspirational that didn’t make the haj to operational – financed from a known al Qods financial institute, no less – seems awful hokey. Plausible you know what ability perhaps

Attacking the Royal Saudi Embassy to kill His Excellency Ambassador Al-Jubeir (he’s not a Royal – just a loyal productive minion). Envoy reported last month that Al-Jubeir personally brought a super secret letter from Saudi King to 44 in September and instantly split immediately for Saudiland. What all did the letter say? Great Satan and Saudi embassy did not disclose what all the correspondence involved. From pages 4 & 5

“…If we keep our diplomatic ties with the Iranians, they will think we are weak, and they will keep trying to attack us. This is their hobby. Iran has no respect for international law.”

And how about doing Little Satan’s Embassy and His Excellency Ambassador Oren as a what for?

Serious chiz kids -this kinda murderous chicanery is of the type where funintended consequences could literally detonate an avalanche of cascading mayhem drawing Great Satan right into Persian Gulf and the Hijaz. Unexpected overt and covert combatty ops and delights would certainly entail.

If Iran was truly hot to attack a diplomat and close confidante’ of the Undying King on American soil – and loling the deaths of hundreds of Americans – has Great Satan casus belli to respond? Should she respond?
(More…………….)
========================

http://greatsatansgirlfriend.blogspot.com/2011/10/al-qods.htm

canopfor on October 12, 2011 at 7:13 PM

CONGRATULATIONS HOT AIR! This is the 500th story you’ve captioned with “Nuance.” We knew you could do it! ::Pops champagne::

Here’s to HA’s tradition of imagination and originality!

Constantine on October 12, 2011 at 7:11 PM

Thanks, Constantine! And thanks for reading all 500 posts!

Allahpundit on October 12, 2011 at 7:14 PM

When I first heard of this, I thought of the movie “Wag the Dog”. There is no telling what is really going on. It does seem a little improbable Iran is stupid enough to do a terrorist attack inside the U.S. when if they were sucessful would have led to retaliation which would end their leadership. Not something they have done in the past. But then you never know. They do see Obama as weak.

Zelsdorf Ragshaft on October 12, 2011 at 7:14 PM

It is interesting that the Saudi ambassador who was targetted reportedly had a personal left from King Abdullah that he presented to Obama. And then immediately went back to Saudi Arabia with a message from Obama the next day.

That’s personal letter not a personal left.

Why not a simple phone call?

SteveMG on October 12, 2011 at 7:15 PM

Intelligence operations and organized crime have always been partners. Just think about the U.S. Navy & the Mafia against the NAZI’s in New York in WWII. This is no stranger.

And I don’t buy Andy McCarthy’s straw man.

I think that this actually happened. That because it didn’t fit any of the Obama’s regime’s political templates, they just let the machinery grind on and ignored it. Until they need a distraction from Holder’s up coming hanging.

I hear Rahm saying “Never let a good opportunity go to waste”.

Iran is at war with us, it has been since Jimmy blew it. So is North Korea. So is Islam. Only Pollyanna or their allies think otherwise.

CrazyGene on October 12, 2011 at 7:15 PM

I’m asking earnestly. After thinking about it for a full day, I can’t come up with a theory. To be clear, I don’t doubt the DOJ’s account…

Uh…why is it out of bounds to question the credibility of Eric Holder and the Justice Department on this?

The Justice Department let pistols, rifles and semi-automatic weapons walk across the border knowing full well they’d end up in the hands of hyper-violent drug cartels. They then spent the better part of a year telling bald faced lies and obstructing a Congressional investigation. All because it served a political end.

Yet somehow they’re morally and ethically incapable of trumping up a terror bust to deflect attention from all that.

You must be trolling for comments.

Mike Honcho on October 12, 2011 at 7:15 PM

I think it comes down to Iran showing the US to be weak. They knew this attack wouldn’t be taken seriously by our current administration, and they wanted that fact illustrated. Now it will become a matter of pushing the boundaries further.

MadisonConservative on October 12, 2011 at 7:15 PM

I’ll wager that the Iranian nuclear scientists who were taken out were killed by Saudi operatives.

Not Israeli or US. We/Israel probably helped but they pulled the triggers.

SteveMG on October 12, 2011 at 7:16 PM

Throw some Iranian war ships just off the east coast of the United States into the equation with the assassination of an Islamic foreign diplomat on American soil, along with a few other simultaneous terror bombings with massive casualties on American soil, and you’ve got yourself a good reason to use a fairly massive amount of military force on Iran’s theocracy in retaliation- and Iran has a perfectly good reason, Islamically speaking of course, to then reign hellfire down on Israel. It escalates from there and before you know it… Armageddon, Israel’s ‘wiped off the map’ and, ostensibly, the return of the Twelfth Imam. Which is exactly what Ahmadinejad & Co. have been pining for all these years.

They wanted to get caught. Just not so early in the game.

FlatFoot on October 12, 2011 at 7:16 PM

Here’s to HA’s tradition of imagination and originality!

Constantine on October 12, 2011 at 7:11 PM

I’ll drink to that!

Weight of Glory on October 12, 2011 at 7:17 PM

Andy McCarthy on why 10/11 Truthers are goofy to think so many Justice Department personnel would be party to a trumped-up case with explosive geopolitical implications.

I would say threats, intimidations are enough. Barring that….wouldn’t keeping a job in this economy be reason enough? After all we’ve seen these past years, I don’t put anything past Obama, his administration, and especially the DOJ and Holder.

capejasmine on October 12, 2011 at 7:17 PM

Can ya say “Wag the Dog”?

try again later on October 12, 2011 at 7:18 PM

Excellent Canopfor :)

cmsinaz on October 12, 2011 at 7:18 PM

One more thing. I do not think the Zettas want the full force of the United States after them. If you think about it. Preditor drones could easily strike Mexican targets.

Zelsdorf Ragshaft on October 12, 2011 at 7:19 PM

They knew this attack wouldn’t be taken seriously by our current administration, and they wanted that fact illustrated.

But my point is, I think it will be taken seriously — covertly, as so many of our ops against Iran are these days.

Allahpundit on October 12, 2011 at 7:21 PM

The Iranian terror plot: Why would Iran do it the way they allegedly did it?

Because they didn’t. Just a theory.

reddevil on October 12, 2011 at 7:21 PM

Because they sense a weak President…I think it might just that simple.

Oil Can on October 12, 2011 at 6:54 PM

I agree. And they are testing him. Remember when Biden said they’d be tested? He may have been off on the timing, but if this isn’t some bizzarre way for Holder to distract , then t his is a test. Time will tell if it’s pass or fail. I’m leaning towards fail! Again!

capejasmine on October 12, 2011 at 7:21 PM

I do wonder,if Iran,still plans to park there
warships,off the US Coast??!!

Could they,be,that stupid,er,callous!!

canopfor on October 12, 2011 at 7:22 PM

I think Holder’s liberal cohorts are responsible. He calls the plot “Let’s Hope Congress Has ADHD, and Distract Them from My & Barrack’s Incompetence.”

Danny on October 12, 2011 at 7:22 PM

Heck, I think this is more of a test of the House of Saud then it is of Obama.

Riyadh has to respond as much as we do.

Why this Ambassador?

SteveMG on October 12, 2011 at 7:23 PM

But my point is, I think it will be taken seriously — covertly, as so many of our ops against Iran are these days.

Allahpundit on October 12, 2011 at 7:21 PM

Allahpundit:Agreed,gawd only knows how many special ops,are going
on,now,concerning Iran:)

canopfor on October 12, 2011 at 7:23 PM

Okay, but trying to kill the Saudi ambassador to the US isn’t a smart idea to start that war.

Attacking our ships in the Gulf? Attacking our embassy in Baghdad? Okay but not this.

SteveMG on October 12, 2011 at 7:11 PM

Because attacking our ships is an overt act, an assasination isn’t. They would have a hard time selling the spin that they were setup by the evil Americans, the assasination plot is not overt and provides them cover with their people. After all the regime is great at conspiracies and since they control the media it would be very easy for them to convince their people they were “framed” for the assasination whereas it’s difficult to have plausible deniability when you actually attack warships in your own gulf.

Just sayin…

Liberty or Death on October 12, 2011 at 7:23 PM

But my point is, I think it will be taken seriously — covertly, as so many of our ops against Iran are these days.

Allahpundit on October 12, 2011 at 7:21 PM

That’s great IF the president ever approves some serious action by those covert forces. However, do you think that’s likely? Meanwhile, any other countries tossing around the idea of screwing with us become further emboldened by a perceived lack of reaction, just as it was with Iraq.

MadisonConservative on October 12, 2011 at 7:24 PM

Because attacking our ships is an overt act, an assasination isn’t.

Okay but if the theory is they want to start a war then I can think of more overt and direct acts.

As I said above, I think this may be more of a challenge directed at King Abdullah/Riyadh than the US.

SteveMG on October 12, 2011 at 7:25 PM

Maybe the Iranians didn’t think that we would mind so much…?

Seven Percent Solution on October 12, 2011 at 7:26 PM

I thought Iran was just “a small country” which in no way endangered us? Wasn’t that the “wisdom” of Obama on the campaign trail?

Sharr on October 12, 2011 at 7:26 PM

He’s not talking about people who question the timing, he’s talking about people who think the whole alleged plot is phony.

Allahpundit on October 12, 2011 at 6:59 PM

Looks like a cheep false flag to divert attention or create a case for sanctions.

the_nile on October 12, 2011 at 7:28 PM

Maybe Team Iran,thinks Hopey/Changey is that clueless and isolated!

And,we all knew d*mn well,that Obama was out of his league,
concerning National Security,and case in point,the image of
horror on Obama’s face,in the command room,when Osama was be
ing snuffed out!

If there was an Operation against Iran,I think,Obama,would
be fainting,like clock-work,as the battle-field news poured
in!

Leon Penatta,would be Hopey’s Nurse Maid,er aid!

canopfor on October 12, 2011 at 7:28 PM

Allahpundit on October 12, 2011 at 7:21 PM

Alright, then let’s go the other way. Maybe they did it because they knew it would be taken seriously and we’d retaliate in some form. Then, after having denied the initial charge of a terror plot, they’d use our response as pretext for the action that they really wanted to take. Just spitballing.

Weight of Glory on October 12, 2011 at 7:28 PM

The Iranian terror plot: Why would Iran do it the way they allegedly did it?

..It may be we are trying to rationalize this from the wrong perspective.
The leaders of Iran have different motivations and see different goals than the basic foreign policy goals we debate on a regular basis.

The Mullahs and Ahmadinejad are hell bent on chaos and the coming of the 12th Imam:

http://www.michaeltotten.com/2010/04/our-man-inside-irans-revolutionary-guards.php

Twelver Shias believe the Twelfth Imam, or Mahdi, will return to bring peace and justice to the world during a time of massive upheaval and chaos. Khomeini and his disciples deviate from traditional Shia doctrine and say the deliberate creation of upheaval and chaos may hasten the Mahdi’s return.

If you look more deeply into the thought processes of the people controlling the government, these are people who strongly believe Islam will conquer the world. Every act they commit is in that direction. They don’t just want a nuclear bomb to make them untouchable. They think it will be the trigger for Islam conquering the world.

Reza Kahlili: The other side of the coin is the crazy talk. They believe what they say. I know they do. I know Khamenei has private prayers with the Mahdi. It’s all crazy talk, but they take it seriously. Thirty years ago they were told the Mahdi wants them to proceed with the nuclear project, and that’s why they’re not bending. They think they’re untouchable and that the Mahdi wants it.

….there visions and goals are no secret and are part of their National policy.

Iranian Video Says Mahdi is ‘Near’

http://www.cbn.com/cbnnews/world/2011/March/Iranian-Regime-Video-Says-Mahdi-is-Near-/

It’s called The Coming is Near and it describes current events in the Middle East as a prelude to the arrival of the mythical tweflth Imam or Mahdi — the messiah figure who Islamic scriptures say will lead the armies of Islam to victory over all non-Muslims in the last days.

…..may be crazy to us…but when you want to create major chaos in the world…getting caught does not matter…..creating the chaos is the main goal.

Baxter Greene on October 12, 2011 at 7:29 PM

Maybe Iran thought that 9/11, their usual routes of causing terror would be found out to quickly. So they decided to try something most would never have thought? A used car salesman in Texas? Who would think of this? It’s like a plot right out of a Cohen Brothers movie.

portlandon on October 12, 2011 at 7:30 PM

sometimes, people are just stupid.

rob verdi on October 12, 2011 at 7:31 PM

-Mr. President, sorry to wake you sir but the phone is ringing.

“Wassat? Wha? What time is it?”

-Three in the morning, sir.

“Eh, let the answering machine take it.”

Bishop on October 12, 2011 at 7:31 PM

But hey, it’s great that everyone’s discussing this instead of that boring old gun giveaway program, right? Fast and what?

cynccook on October 12, 2011 at 7:31 PM

Maybe the Iranians didn’t think that we would mind so much…?

Seven Percent Solution on October 12, 2011 at 7:26 PM

Seven Percent Solution:No sh*t,oops,I mean a great point!:)

canopfor on October 12, 2011 at 7:33 PM

Iran is building nuclear weapons , why risk any over conflict with USA until the are working.

They are probably not that stupid.

the_nile on October 12, 2011 at 7:33 PM

Okay but if the theory is they want to start a war then I can think of more overt and direct acts.

As I said above, I think this may be more of a challenge directed at King Abdullah/Riyadh than the US.

SteveMG on October 12, 2011 at 7:25 PM

I hear what you’e saying Steve, but in my original comment regarding a theory about why the Iranians would do this I didn’t say their ultimate goal was to start a war with us. If that was their ultimate goal they would as you say just attack one of our ships. My theory is they do not want a revolt in their country, something which they fear is coming soon since it is happening all over the ME. In their twisted minds they may believe if they make it look as though the US framed them for the assasiantion as an excuse to attack they can galvenize the people back to their side to avoid a revolt. I didn’t say it wasn’t twisted thinking but think about who we are dealing with here…”I’m-a-mad-dinner-jacket!”

Liberty or Death on October 12, 2011 at 7:35 PM

My theory is they do not want a revolt in their country, something which they fear is coming soon since it is happening all over the ME. In their twisted minds they may believe if they make it look as though the US framed them for the assasiantion as an excuse to attack they can galvenize the people back to their side to avoid a revolt. I didn’t say it wasn’t twisted thinking but think about who we are dealing with here…”I’m-a-mad-dinner-jacket!”

Liberty or Death on October 12, 2011 at 7:35 PM

Silly.

It all looks like a preface to Iran sanctions before the can build nukes.

the_nile on October 12, 2011 at 7:38 PM

-Mr. President, sorry to wake you sir but the phone is ringing.

“Wassat? Wha? What time is it?”

-Three in the morning, sir.

“Eh, let the answering machine take it.”

Bishop on October 12, 2011 at 7:31 PM

Bishop:

Answering machine spits out the message,inexplicably on its own…

beep..beep..”Mr.President,ACME Golf Club,is just calling to con
firm,that your T-Off is going to be,at 0800,oh,and
if you could arrange,for your OWS Goons,not to picket
our site,that would be nice….thank-you!”

(snark)

canopfor on October 12, 2011 at 7:38 PM

AP,

At first glance, this looks like a head-fake to me. The targets and locations are major, enough so as to fix the attention of all the right people. No serious Iranian operatives involved, so it was easily and deliberately botched, confounding those whose attention was fixed.

Now, what was happening in June or just before then which they truly wanted to succeed? Probably unrelated to the Libyan ordnance fire sale and items flowing into Gaza. 1,000 additional trigger fingers are just itching.

Just spitballing here…

Christien on October 12, 2011 at 7:38 PM

In their twisted minds they may believe if they make it look as though the US framed them for the assasiantion as an excuse to attack they can galvenize the people back to their side to avoid a revolt. I didn’t say it wasn’t

Sure, it’s possible. We all know that history is filled with examples of governments doing things that made no sense outwardly but from their own perspective and internally made sense.

It may indeed be a power struggle with the radicals trying to rally their forces against the “less” radicals. We all have read about the fight between Ahmadinejad and the Mullahs. This might be a manifestation of that division.

SteveMG on October 12, 2011 at 7:39 PM

But hey, it’s great that everyone’s discussing this instead of that boring old gun giveaway program, right? Fast and what?

cynccook on October 12, 2011 at 7:31 PM

That too.

the_nile on October 12, 2011 at 7:39 PM

Here’s to HA’s tradition of imagination and originality!

Constipated on October 12, 2011 at 7:11 PM

And here’s to your chlamydia test coming back negative!

CurtZHP on October 12, 2011 at 7:41 PM

10/11 is the new Birther.

Sigh.

Our pundits are afraid.

faraway on October 12, 2011 at 7:41 PM

The Mullahs and Ahmadinejad are hell bent on chaos and the coming of the 12th Imam:

…..may be crazy to us…but when you want to create major chaos in the world…getting caught does not matter…..creating the chaos is the main goal.

Baxter Greene on October 12, 2011 at 7:29 PM

Baxter Greene on Octobeer 12:Great to see ya,and the idiot that is
still stuck in the well.

Another good point,as Iran,would love
to seperate,the Real True Believers,
from,the True-Believers!:)

canopfor on October 12, 2011 at 7:43 PM

10/11 is the new Birther.

Sigh.

Our pundits are afraid.

Yeah, hundreds of DOJ and FBI and DEA personnel all agreed to promote this to help Obama.

Not. one. single. one. refused. to. go. along.

SteveMG on October 12, 2011 at 7:45 PM

Excellent Canopfor :)

cmsinaz on October 12, 2011 at 7:18 PM

cmsinaz:–:)

canopfor on October 12, 2011 at 7:46 PM

Our pundits are afraid.

And AP is afraid that they’ll take away his cat.

SteveMG on October 12, 2011 at 7:46 PM

Why would Iran do it the way they allegedly did it?
Why would anyone think that a mass murdering, caravan robbing, paedophile who claims he heard voices from a vengeful and hateful god is the perfect man? You expect rational behaviour from these people?

Basilsbest on October 12, 2011 at 7:48 PM

test

faraway on October 12, 2011 at 7:56 PM

10/11 is the new Birther.

Sigh.

Our pundits are afraid.

faraway on October 12, 2011 at 7:41 PM

And the “new” denier and the “new” racist.

InkyBinkyBarleyBoo on October 12, 2011 at 7:59 PM

Another good point,as Iran,would love
to seperate,the Real True Believers,
from,the True-Believers!:)

canopfor on October 12, 2011 at 7:43 PM

Great to see you to.

What seems crazy to us is perfectly rational to people that live,breath,and carry out their daily business in accordance with Allah.

Their goals in life are dictated by the Koran and fulfilling Mohammad’s teachings.

A country lead by mullahs that see their true purpose in life is to fulfill the teachings of Mohammad,would not be out of character in pushing a terrorist plot that would create chaos not only between them and America…but would also involve a border country that is close to becoming a failed state.
If your main purpose is to create chaos and international upheaval….than you are not that concerned with “getting caught”…only with the final outcome.
Iran will certainly bring up “Bush lied about WMD’s” (thanks for that propaganda liberals) so that he could attack Iraq….
…..”Bush did 9/11″ so that he could start another crusade”…..
………….”Now America is pushing false allegations so that they can attack us and protect Israel”….
….”this is why we need Nuclear Weapons….so what happened to Saddam,Bin Laden,and Qaddafi…does not happen to us”……

It’s win win for them…
…..they either get the confrontation they want which will rally muslim nations…China…and Russia against us(and our weak economy) or they make the White House look weak if no real action is taken against them.
Obama has been so weak concerning Iran that they either don’t think he will take covert action or they are not worried about it.
Iran’s tentacles of influence reach far and wide…are protected by the likes of China/Russia/Turkey,and they are in a position to cause major upheaval for the West.
This administration will talk loud but carry a toothpick in regards to Iran.

Baxter Greene on October 12, 2011 at 8:18 PM

Errm…because Chaos, Death and Destruction will herald the imminent arrival of the 12th imam? Don’t knock it if you haven’t tried it, kids.

Fortunata on October 12, 2011 at 8:19 PM

Can ya say “Wag the Dog”?

try again later on October 12, 2011 at 7:18 PM

Yup. Too convenient that Iran does this before they got nukes.

the_nile on October 12, 2011 at 8:22 PM

Allah is quite brave here with this post. Kudos.

faraway on October 12, 2011 at 8:28 PM

Questions from terror experts on CNN blog (for some reason I can’t link it)

Former CIA operative Bob Baer expressed his skepticism about the allegation that Iran was behind the plot

Gary Sick is a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Middle East Institute

“I find this alleged Iranian plot very hard to believe.

faraway on October 12, 2011 at 8:30 PM

Allah is quite brave here with this post. Kudos.

Because he risks Homeland Security taking him away?

What the heck do you think is going to happen to him?

SteveMG on October 12, 2011 at 8:30 PM

God help me, I can’t get the idea out of my mind that this is a false flag operation by the O and his friends.

1. No one believes anything the Iranians say, so they can deny it all they want. Also includes a guy from Texas, whose governor is a threat to the O regime.
2. Distracts everyone from the economy, Fast and Furious, etc.

3. First phase of a conflict with the Iranians. (see 2)
4. Reminds me of the Gulf of Tonken incident.

It’s just waaaaay too convenient in it’s timing.

gordo on October 12, 2011 at 8:32 PM

Alright, then let’s go the other way. Maybe they did it because they knew it would be taken seriously and we’d retaliate in some form. Then, after having denied the initial charge of a terror plot, they’d use our response as pretext for the action that they really wanted to take. Just spitballing.

Weight of Glory on October 12, 2011 at 7:28 PM

This. I don’t think this was the real op. You’re right, Allah. Something’s really fishy about this whole thing. It smells like a slight-of-hand. There’s more going on than we (and probably Washington) know about right now.

Either that, or the mullahs have been reading too much Vince Flynn and Brad Thor.

nukemhill on October 12, 2011 at 8:34 PM

what would the cartel get out of this arrangement except a bit of cash that it doesn’t need and a lot lot lot of new scrutiny from the world’s greatest military power?

The cartel was not involved – at all. Only an FBI informant.

faraway on October 12, 2011 at 8:39 PM

What the heck do you think is going to happen to him?

SteveMG on October 12, 2011 at 8:30 PM

Were you around during the “birther” episodes?

faraway on October 12, 2011 at 8:44 PM

I’ll toss another theory onto the fire: the Iranians didn’t really care of it succeeded or not. They wanted to send a few messages:

(1)The Quds has been active in South and Central America executing operations (embassy bombings) and recruiting disaffected locals to join a movement against the US. This reinforces to the US that the situation in Mexico is out of control and our border has been leaking Middle East illegals for years (sleeper cells anyone?). Just as Iran has buddied up with Chavez in Venezula and will place medium range Iranian missiles there, they want us to now really be concerned about Quds and drug gangs teaming up in Mexico – maybe even creating a narco state aligned with terrorists.

(2)Iran wanted us to know that they have the ability to place a bomb wherever they like – especially in our capital city. This is a shot across the bow for when they have a portable nuke.

Either way things played out we will be diverting billions of dollars into new defensive efforts and out of our economy. Obama will be shown – once again – to be all bluff & bluster. And President Igotadinnerjacket wet himself laughing so hard at what $100,000 bought him.

in_awe on October 12, 2011 at 8:47 PM

SteveMG,

Yeah, hundreds of DOJ and FBI and DEA personnel all agreed to promote this to help Obama.

How many DOJ and ATF personneel particpated in Operation Fast and Furious? How much time passed before details of that clusterfark began leaking out?

Other than the fact that it makes absolutely no sense and apparently serves a political end for the Obama administration, we know very little about this operation.

Mike Honcho on October 12, 2011 at 8:48 PM

Why would the Iranians need help from Mexicans for a bombing? Ask yourself this question a few times.

I question the timing, of course. The guy was arrested over a month ago, and Holder (not FBI or Janet) announces on the day of subpoena. Come on.

I don’t doubt that some guy (usually referred to as “lone wolf” in every case for 10 years…until now) tried to arrange a hit via the Mexican cartel.

I have questions about the Iranian government connection, however.

faraway on October 12, 2011 at 8:51 PM

Uh, maybe Obama is thinking he has nothing to lose by starting another war.

A full scale conflict and he gets lots of reasons to use emergency powers, to suspend elections and to get the GOP to stop criticizing him.

He is capable of anything.

JellyToast on October 12, 2011 at 9:03 PM

How many DOJ and ATF personneel particpated in Operation Fast and Furious

Did you read the Andrew McCarthy piece that AP linked to?

He worked in the DOJ and with the FBI and other agencies. It is impossible – he says – to pull something like this off without patriotic Americans in those agencies blowing the whistle.

I’ll defer to his knowledge on the people who work in those agencies.

SteveMG on October 12, 2011 at 9:05 PM

Were you around during the “birther” episodes?

And what happened to the “birthers”?

They were called names?

So AP is brave because he might be called names on the internet?

In any case, if you read AP above he believes the charges – he doesn’t think it’s a hoax or a wag the dog – but is puzzled over why the Iranians would operate like this.

SteveMG on October 12, 2011 at 9:07 PM

Yeah, hundreds of DOJ and FBI and DEA personnel all agreed to promote this to help Obama.

That’s a few hundred strawmen.

faraway on October 12, 2011 at 9:09 PM

Because he risks Homeland Security taking him away?

What the heck do you think is going to happen to him?

SteveMG on October 12, 2011 at 8:30 PM

Townhall runs a commercial business. nuff..

the_nile on October 12, 2011 at 9:11 PM

It actually speaks volumes about this administration that a false flag or wag-the-dog rational popped right into the minds of so many upon hearing of the plot, even though those ideas make even less sense than the official explanation.

Knott Buyinit on October 12, 2011 at 9:17 PM

So we’re now the war-hawks are taking the word of the same people who concocted F&F as gospel?

Notorious GOP on October 12, 2011 at 9:46 PM

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