Another poll shows Obama losing to Mitt Romney, Rick Perry and Herman Cain

posted at 4:05 pm on October 12, 2011 by Tina Korbe

Ed characterized the first poll to show Herman Cain beating Barack Obama in a head-to-head match-up as a “wait and see” poll, and I’d say this new poll from Evolving Strategies falls in the same category — but it’s still another little weight on the electability side of the Herman Cain scale.

What has been said of Herman Cain over and over seems to still be true: The more people know of him, the more they like him. So it’s no wonder he’d perform well in the type of survey Evolving Strategies conducted this weekend:

Over the weekend, Evolving Strategies launched a national survey, executed by YouGov, testing each of the three GOP frontrunners (Romney, Cain and Perry) in a head-to-head match-up against President Obama. (YouGov is a well-regarded sample service, quoted by leading polling analysts like Real Clear Politics and Nate Silver of the NYT here.) It is a nationally representative, general population sample consisting of 1,000 respondents.

Most Americans outside of the media and politics have little idea who Romney is, let alone Perry or Cain. The only way to get a real sense of how each candidate might play in a general election is to introduce respondents to the candidates.

What makes our survey unique and uniquely informative is the fact that we had our respondents watch a video clip of President Obama speaking about the economy, followed by a video clip of either Romney, Perry, or Cain speaking about the economy during the last Fox debate (they also read a short, 120 word bio).

The results? Obama beat Generic Republican 41 to 36, but Perry, Romney and Cain all bested Obama. Perry received the most support of the three, with 42 percent to Obama’s 36, but Romney beat the incumbent by a wider margin, 40 to 33. Cain just narrowly edged out Obama 35 to 34.

The sample leaned a little to the left with a D/R/I of 37.4/23.3/26.8 (not all those polled fell under one of the three categories, apparently), but the breakdowns in terms of age and race are pretty accurate. No added advantage for Cain with an outsized number of senior citizens, as in the first poll Ed cited: They made up just 16.5 percent of the sample this time. That’s pretty much right on the dot: Seniors comprised 16 percent of the electorate in 2008. Blacks and Hispanics each comprised a little more than 10 percent of the sample size.

Interestingly and in contrast to Poll Position’s results, this particular poll showed Obama earning 75 percent of the black vote — with the remaining 25 percent saying they weren’t sure who they’d vote for. In other words, in this particular survey, Cain came nowhere close to garnering a third of the black vote as he says he would in the actual general election. But he picked up 47 percent of independents compared to Obama’s 17 percent, and 11 percent of Democrats crossed party lines to say they’d vote for Cain compared to just 3 percent of Republicans who said they’d vote for Obama.

The pollsters summarize: “Herman Cain can win the general — people have an open mind about him — but he needs to close the sale with those uncertain swing voters.”

To do it, he would just need greater exposure — but how’s he going to get it? Folks might tune in to debates and other campaign coverage as the primaries draw nearer, but Cain really doesn’t have much time to expand his name recognition. For that reason, he’s still a long-shot — just as Perry’s higher name ID and deep campaign coffers mean he’s not yet out of the race. Notice that, in this poll, Perry actually had the highest percentage of actual support. People like what they see of the Texas governor, too, even if they’re underwhelmed by his performance at the podium (or table).


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..when a poll showing all of the candidates including Huntsman are beating this sack of crap, I predicts Hillary gets in the race.

The War Planner on October 12, 2011 at 4:08 PM

Tina/ Ed 2012

faraway on October 12, 2011 at 4:08 PM

..I does!

The War Planner on October 12, 2011 at 4:08 PM

Uh-oh. Fourth quarter, champ.

John the Libertarian on October 12, 2011 at 4:08 PM

..I does!

The War Planner on October 12, 2011 at 4:08 PM

Harry Belafonte just called to say you’re not authentically black enough.

John the Libertarian on October 12, 2011 at 4:10 PM

Anybody but Obama!

ABO, I like that, maybe it will catch on with the haters.

cozmo on October 12, 2011 at 4:11 PM

Another poll shows Obama losing to Mitt Romney, Rick Perry and Herman Cain

next in line: Ham sammiches!

Ham Sammich 55%; Obama 45%

predictions

ted c on October 12, 2011 at 4:11 PM

Uh-oh. Fourth quarter, champ.

John the Libertarian on October 12, 2011 at 4:08 PM

and he ain’t no Joe Montana.

ted c on October 12, 2011 at 4:12 PM

To do it, he would just need greater exposure — but how’s he going to get it?

Careful what you wish for. I believe the Democrats are going to attempt to “Dan Quayle” Cain. The more exposure Cain gets, the more chances he gets to screw up. He has already gaffed quite a bit.

crosspatch on October 12, 2011 at 4:12 PM

Maybe Perry could change his name to Generic Republican

faraway on October 12, 2011 at 4:13 PM


“Herman Cain can win the general …

But we’d only be voting for him because we’re racist … or something.

Tony737 on October 12, 2011 at 4:14 PM

Herman Cain can win the general — people have an open mind about him — but he needs to close the sale with those uncertain swing voters.

I think his likeability quotient will help close that sale. Every time I hear him speak, he makes me laugh. He is just good-naturedly funny, and the man laughs hard...that’s healthy! We need that.

ted c on October 12, 2011 at 4:14 PM

Maybe I should jump into this race.

forest on October 12, 2011 at 4:14 PM

Maybe I should jump into this race.

forest on October 12, 2011 at 4:14 PM

no one could see you for the trees…..

ted c on October 12, 2011 at 4:16 PM

“What makes our survey unique and uniquely informative is the fact that we had our respondents watch a video clip of President Obama speaking about the economy,…”

I can see it now…

“Stop it,… PLEASE! For the love of Pete, turn it off…. TURN IT OFF!!! I’ll say anything, you MONSTER!!! You call yourself a human being…. TURN IT OFF!!! I’m gonna get you if it’s the last thing I due you son of a bit%h!!! TURN IT OFF!!! What kind of a sick game is this anyway!!! STOP IT!!! TURN… IT… OFF!!!…”

Seven Percent Solution on October 12, 2011 at 4:20 PM

People like what they see of the Texas governor, too, even if they’re underwhelmed by his performance at the podium (or table).

More evidence of that:

GIGOT: Dorothy, Rick Perry has been in the series (ph) two or three times in the last couple of years.

DOROTHY RABINOWITZ, EDITORIAL BOARD MEMBER: Yes.

GIGOT: We’ve seen him for an hour or more. Is this the same Rick Perry that we’ve seen in those meetings?

RABINOWITZ: Magically, you’ve touched on the exact point. The trouble with Rick Perry, in public, is he’s not the Rick Perry that we see in private. The Rick Perry we see, with that aggie (ph) ring standing there –

(LAUGHTER)

RABINOWITZ: — this military man, is one tough customer. And the first impression you get is, not only does he look tough, he is tough. What happens when you put him in the public arena? He becomes an inhibited person, suppressing all of that arrogance because he thinks this it wasn’t necessary. And this makes him constricted performance.

GIGOT: Over handled by the political advisors, stuffing him with this or that.

RABINOWITZ: Possibly. You can’t conceal who you really are. and here he is, being this nice guy, smiling over these assaults on him. Whereas, when you confront him at some — across some table, you don’t want a fight with this guy.

I don’t know why Rick can’t seem to be himself in debates, it sure won’t hurt him any more than his current TV persona.

cartooner on October 12, 2011 at 4:21 PM

I’m underwhelmed by Perry’s consideration of me as a person lacking a heart.

Rick, you are dead to me.

exdeadhead on October 12, 2011 at 4:23 PM

compared to just 3 percent of Republicans who said they’d vote for Obama.

Who in the hell are these 3%? They aren’t Republicans. I’m certain of that!

capejasmine on October 12, 2011 at 4:26 PM

There is not one thing bad about this poll.

gophergirl on October 12, 2011 at 4:27 PM

…just 3 percent of Republicans who said they’d vote for Obama.

Who in the world are these people?

SlaveDog on October 12, 2011 at 4:29 PM

I don’t know why Rick can’t seem to be himself in debates, it sure won’t hurt him any more than his current TV persona.

cartooner on October 12, 2011 at 4:21 PM

I wonder who’s on his campaign team. Sabotage?

darwin on October 12, 2011 at 4:29 PM

capejasmine on October 12, 2011 at 4:26 PM

Great minds and all that.

SlaveDog on October 12, 2011 at 4:30 PM

The pollsters summarize: “Herman Cain can win the general — people have an open mind about him — but he needs to close the sale with those uncertain swing voters.”
To do it, he would just need greater exposure — but how’s he going to get it? Folks might tune in to debates and other campaign coverage as the primaries draw nearer, but Cain really doesn’t have much time to expand his name recognition.

Maybe Cain needs a money-bomb to be as well-known as Romney and Perry.

It’s possible that a lot of those polled didn’t watch the latest debates, but maybe Perry is pulling in more votes with his campaign ads.

Whatever this poll is worth, I like their idea of showing video clips of the candidates before asking the questions, which negates the President’s bully pulpit for the poll. The problem is, can the Republican nominee get his message out to the general population while being drowned by a billion dollars worth of Obamaganda?

Steve Z on October 12, 2011 at 4:30 PM

Careful what you wish for. I believe the Democrats are going to attempt to “Dan Quayle” Cain. The more exposure Cain gets, the more chances he gets to screw up. He has already gaffed quite a bit.

crosspatch on October 12, 2011 at 4:12 PM

Every GOP candidate will make gaffes, and if they don’t make them, the media will be there to create them. It doesn’t matter. It’s what the media does. Nobody even knows about Obama’s gaffes.

I think people are a little more wise to the media this time around.

Gaffes will happen. The problem is getting the GOP and/or the candidate to be on top of it and go around the media….every step of the way.

bridgetown on October 12, 2011 at 4:31 PM

compared to just 3 percent of Republicans who said they’d vote for Obama.
Who in the hell are these 3%? They aren’t Republicans. I’m certain of that!

capejasmine on October 12, 2011 at 4:26 PM

Mitt supporters, no doubt.

Midas on October 12, 2011 at 4:31 PM

In other news, my shaken faith hopeful about the American people. They may not double down on stupid after all.

Axeman on October 12, 2011 at 4:32 PM

If anybody but Obama wins, can we please run anybody but Mitt?

SAMinVA on October 12, 2011 at 4:33 PM

next in line: Ham sammiches!

Ham Sammich 55%; Obama 45%

predictions

ted c on October 12, 2011 at 4:11 PM

Ham sammich will lose the Jewish vote.

portlandon on October 12, 2011 at 4:33 PM

Once the polls consistently show just about everyone beating Obama, things will get really hinky.

SlaveDog on October 12, 2011 at 4:33 PM

I don’t think Perry really wants the job of POTUS bad enough.

I think it’s going to come down to Cain, Romney and Bachmann

Hopefully, Bachman will wise up and get out.

Romney won’t give up. Dangit.

bridgetown on October 12, 2011 at 4:33 PM

Maybe Perry could change his name to Generic Republican

faraway on October 12, 2011 at 4:13 PM

but they all outperform generic republican..

Plenty of time for Perry and Cain.

El_Terrible on October 12, 2011 at 4:35 PM

Here’s the link.

cartooner on October 12, 2011 at 4:36 PM

Herman Cain cannot win the general. His 999 plan is beginning to sound like a childish nursery rhyme and everyone involved knows it’s never going to pass. He also has a ‘fatal flaw’ type speech impediment that’s unfortunately fairly common in blacks from the deep South, wherein he says the consonant slur ‘th’ like an ‘f’ – e.g., “Happy Birfday.” AND he’s an occasional race baiter. Nice guy, unserious candidate.

Blacksheep on October 12, 2011 at 4:37 PM

Second looks at Newt and Tpaw ?????

phreshone on October 12, 2011 at 4:37 PM

Second looks at Newt and Tpaw

Newt is the smartest, most qualified man on the stage every debate. Naturally we reject him out of hand for past moral failings – good thing no one else has any of those! Oh well, brought it on himself.

Blacksheep on October 12, 2011 at 4:40 PM

Who in the world are these people?

SlaveDog on October 12, 2011 at 4:29 PM

Palin supporters trying to burn America to the ground to make a point.

csdeven on October 12, 2011 at 4:40 PM

What has been said of Herman Cain over and over seems to still be true: The more people know of him, the more they like him.

Ahhhhhahahahaha…no.

capitalist piglet on October 12, 2011 at 4:40 PM

This is by Particularly Partisan Pollsters, but it’s still eyepopping.

Cain leads nationally

30-22 over Romney. Gingrich over Perry, 15-14.

KingGold on October 12, 2011 at 4:41 PM

If Cain wants to win, he needs to drop that 9-9-9 nonsense.

PackerBronco on October 12, 2011 at 4:42 PM

“Happy Birfday.”

Blacksheep on October 12, 2011 at 4:37 PM

I still like him, for what it’s worf.

John the Libertarian on October 12, 2011 at 4:46 PM

If Cain wants to win, he needs to drop that 9-9-9 nonsense.

PackerBronco on October 12, 2011 at 4:42 PM

Or rather expand beyond it. I like Cain, don’t like 9 9 9.

El_Terrible on October 12, 2011 at 4:46 PM

Palin supporters trying to burn America to the ground to make a point.

csdeven on October 12, 2011 at 4:40 PM

Are you sick pukes ever going to stop?

darwin on October 12, 2011 at 4:57 PM

Second looks at Newt and Tpaw ?????

phreshone on October 12, 2011 at 4:37 PM

Welcome to the club, I started weeks ago.

fossten on October 12, 2011 at 4:57 PM

Are you sick pukes ever going to stop?

darwin on October 12, 2011 at 4:57 PM

Dude. Look who you’re talking to. cslouis is INSANE. Trying to reason with him/her is like trying to reason with the Tasmanian devil.

fossten on October 12, 2011 at 4:59 PM

There is not one thing bad about this poll.

gophergirl on October 12, 2011 at 4:27 PM

I would agree if it was taken after the Primaries. Any poll this far out is good for the day it was taken. We know how fast things change.

Those that want to see Gov. Perry outside of a debate, take a look at Part 1 & 2 of Post Dartmouth remarks. Comments are good also.

http://www.redstate.com/moe_lane/2011/10/12/rick-perrys-post-dartmouth-remarks-part-i/#comments

bluefox on October 12, 2011 at 5:01 PM

Palin supporters trying to burn America to the ground to make a point.

csdeven on October 12, 2011 at 4:40 PM

Can you post anything to back this statement up?

IowaWoman on October 12, 2011 at 5:02 PM

Can you post anything to back this statement up?

IowaWoman on October 12, 2011 at 5:02 PM

He’s pathologically obsessed with her. That’s clear by now. I’d let it go.

rrpjr on October 12, 2011 at 5:14 PM

A real poll, Rasmussen, shows Perry losing by 14, but shhhhh.

Lets lead with a pol from “Evolving Strategies”. Err, okay.

swamp_yankee on October 12, 2011 at 5:28 PM

Heh. For being “dead” Rick Perry is even leading Obama.

-Aslan’s Girl

Aslans Girl on October 12, 2011 at 5:33 PM

Heh. For being “dead” Rick Perry is even leading Obama.

-Aslan’s Girl

Aslans Girl on October 12, 2011 at 5:33 PM

Depends which poll you’re looking at.

darwin on October 12, 2011 at 5:36 PM

Cartooner and bluefox, thanks for the links. That’s the Perry I’m accustomed to.

juliesa on October 12, 2011 at 5:37 PM

Aslans Girl on October 12, 2011 at 5:33 PM

I hope you have time to read my 5:01PM post & watch the videos:-)

bluefox on October 12, 2011 at 5:41 PM

next in line: Ham sammiches!

Ham Sammich 55%; Obama 45%

predictions

ted c on October 12, 2011 at 4:11 PM

Ham Sammich is a RINO squish! We need to support MOLDY Ham Sammich!!

CurtZHP on October 12, 2011 at 5:49 PM

..I does!-Aslan’s Girl

Aslans Girl on October 12, 2011 at 5:33 PM

..ahhhh yes! But the real burning question on everyone’s mind at this moment is does Aslan lead him in a poll?

The War Planner on October 12, 2011 at 6:11 PM

I was skimming the headlines and for some reason, I read “Perry and Herman” in the title as “Pee Wee Herman”. I bet even Pee Wee could beat Obama!

behiker on October 12, 2011 at 6:15 PM

Clearly, this very small poll of a very small sample of people watching one specific clip has determined the next President will be Republican; I’m glad that’s out of the way. All that’s left to determine is what country we’ll be attacking.

Constantine on October 12, 2011 at 6:41 PM

The War Planner on October 12, 2011 at 6:11 PM

Aslan’s the King. He don’t need no stinking polls ;)

-Aslan’s Girl

Aslans Girl on October 12, 2011 at 7:57 PM

bluefox on October 12, 2011 at 5:41 PM

Haven’t yet, but I will! Thanks :)

-Aslan’s Girl

Aslans Girl on October 12, 2011 at 7:58 PM

Rasmussen seems to have a dramatically different finding. One of them is off by a lot, or maybe they both are.

Jaibones on October 12, 2011 at 10:16 PM