PPP: WV gubernatorial race now a dead heat before tomorrow’s election

posted at 3:25 pm on October 3, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

Tomorrow, West Virginia voters go to the polls to choose their next governor in a special election necessitated by Joe Manchin’s election to the Senate last year.  Manchin won that seat as a popular Democrat in a conservative, which the Senate president and interim governor, Earl Ray Tomblin, hoped would suffice to keep the seat away from Republicans.  He entered the race with a 33-point lead in polling over his GOP challenger Billy Maloney, but Democratic pollster PPP now says it’s a dead heat:

The race for Governor of West Virginia is looking more and more like a toss up, with Democrat Earl Ray Tomblin now leading Republican Bill Maloney only 47-46.  Tomblin’s lead was 46-40 on a poll conducted at the beginning of September and he had led by as large a margin as 33 points earlier in the year.

So what happened?  Maloney started scoring some points off of Tomblin, but PPP’s Tom Jensen thinks the problem may not be Tomblin at all:

Attempts to saddle Tomblin with the burden of Barack Obama might be having an impact as well- the President’s approval in the state is just 28%, with 63% of voters disapproving of him.

When we polled West Virginia a month ago Maloney led by 65 points with Republicans and 5 points with independents.  He currently leads by 65 points with Republicans and 4 points with independents.  So there’s basically been no change with those voting groups.  The shift that’s occurred has been with Democrats.  Maloney’s share of their vote has increased from 17% to 24%, while Tomblin has remained in place at 69%.  Maloney has particularly made in roads with conservative Democrats- they now support Tomblin by only a 49-43 margin.

The news is probably worse for Democrats than PPP lets on.  Their polling sample gave Democrats a 20-point advantage, 55/35/9.  In 2010, with the popular Manchin at the top of the ticket, CNN’s exit polling showed a much narrower edge for Democrats, 41/35/24.  Since Jensen himself notes that Manchin would beat Maloney by thirty points, it’s hard to see why Democrats would add 14 points to their edge from 2010 while Republicans lose two points and two-thirds of independents disappear.

If we reweighted the response to reflect the 2010 exit polling, I’d bet that Maloney would be leading this race outside of the margin of error.  We’ll certainly know after tomorrow.

Update: Tomblin was the Senate president; WV doesn’t have a lieutenant governor.  Thanks to Bobby R for the reminder.

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

If this one goes GOP, look for the Dems to try to get Obama to pull out- or find a challenger for him (Hillary).

michaelo on October 3, 2011 at 3:29 PM

You know, that Perry fella saw a rock with a racist word painted on it one day. And he didn’t remove it until he was legally allowed to.

lorien1973 on October 3, 2011 at 3:29 PM

Obama declares war. The commoners fight back.

faraway on October 3, 2011 at 3:29 PM

Man, that Romney and his flip flopping. And what’s up with his hair?

lorien1973 on October 3, 2011 at 3:30 PM

Ever notice these PPP polls have a way of “tightening up” right before an election?

This way they can attempt to maintain a shred of credibility when the actual numbers come in (this of course after discouraging as many undesirable voters as possible).

pain train on October 3, 2011 at 3:31 PM

We won’t know if this means anything until it’s over.

/msm

mankai on October 3, 2011 at 3:31 PM

They’re having an election now, almost a year after Manchin left the governorship. Wow. They do move slow in W. VA.

angryed on October 3, 2011 at 3:32 PM

Not a bad consolation prize, considering we handed the Dems Kentucky on a silver platter with lace doilies and a garnish.

KingGold on October 3, 2011 at 3:33 PM

Their polling sample gave Democrats a 20-point advantage, 55/35/9.

no bias there/

cmsinaz on October 3, 2011 at 3:33 PM

Too bad Manchin will probably hold the Senate seat next year.

steebo77 on October 3, 2011 at 3:34 PM

Ever notice these PPP polls have a way of “tightening up” right before an election?

This way they can attempt to maintain a shred of credibility when the actual numbers come in (this of course after discouraging as many undesirable voters as possible).

pain train on October 3, 2011 at 3:31 PM

And yet for some reason conservatives give a shit about PPP polls 13 months before an election.

angryed on October 3, 2011 at 3:34 PM

I’m thinking BLUE.

With West-by-God_Virginia, you just never know.

And yes, many WVA inhabitants are proud of the West-by-God-Virginia handle.

I’m not so far from the state line.

hillbillyjim on October 3, 2011 at 3:34 PM

It’s not a referendum on Obama, it’s anti-incumbent anger, or something.

Mord on October 3, 2011 at 3:35 PM

Toblin is getting beat up on Obamacare in radio ads. Manchin may have shot a hole in the bill with his rifle, but Tomblin is apparently doing nothing to oppose its implementation. I have a feeling this might be a pick-up.

forest on October 3, 2011 at 3:36 PM

Their polling sample gave Democrats a 20-point advantage, 55/35/9.

that’s the same way their kids get good solid B+’s in school….

methods.

ted c on October 3, 2011 at 3:36 PM

It’s not a referendum on Obama

Mord on October 3, 2011 at 3:35 PM

Bullshit. It is exactly a referendum on the dumb-ass in chief. Do you subscribe to any newspapers, or are you relying on DailyCos for your misinformation?

hillbillyjim on October 3, 2011 at 3:38 PM

isn’t WV. coal country?

darwin-t on October 3, 2011 at 3:39 PM

If this one goes GOP, look for the Dems to try to get Obama to pull out- or find a challenger for him (Hillary).

michaelo on October 3, 2011 at 3:29 PM

Hillary won’t run and, if she does – it’ll be a “Fred Thompson” kind of run for her.

I knew Hillary – I worked at the White House during the first three years of the Clinton administration. I have seen Hillary in her “full on” No-Holds-Barred Alpha Femaleness. When Hillary is ON and MOTIVATED – you can sense it in every fiber of her being. She is dead serious, humorless, focused.

She’s lost that – and I think rather than “lost” it – she willingly gave it up.

Hillary is focused on other things in life and, I believe, she intends her stint as SOS to be her last public job.

Now – Bill Clinton has an insatiable lust for power – and he might talk her into a run. However – I don’t think so as I don’t think he has the kind of “pull” with her that he once did (too many bimbo eruptions).

And – if she does run, her heart won’t be in it – and it will show.

And besides – look at her, she is doing nothing to improve her physical image and even looks quite comfortable with the way she looks. I think she is enjoying the last bit of public exposure she thinks she’s likely to have.

HondaV65 on October 3, 2011 at 3:40 PM

hillbillyjim on October 3, 2011 at 3:38 PM

Uh, Mord was laying the sarcasm on pretty thick there, champ. You not catch it?

KingGold on October 3, 2011 at 3:40 PM

WV will vote overwhelmingly against Obama next year. But they like their Dems in statewide positions. We’ll see – hope Maloney can pull it out.

Missy on October 3, 2011 at 3:42 PM

isn’t WV. coal country?

darwin-t on October 3, 2011 at 3:39 PM

Yes, it is.

My already-broke neighbors are going to take it on the chin again because of this administration and their anti-energy policies.

It is sad. Some of these folks are barely able to afford their water.

hillbillyjim on October 3, 2011 at 3:42 PM

Hoffman, NY-23 Landslide.

lorien1973 on October 3, 2011 at 3:44 PM

It’s not a referendum on Obama, it’s anti-incumbent anger, or something.
Mord on October 3, 2011 at 3:35 PM

Either that or an ill-informed electorate that doesn’t know what’s best for them; maybe we should suspend elections for a few years.

Bishop on October 3, 2011 at 3:44 PM

WV is a strange place. You would think it would be Conservative but it’s far from it. Obama has done everything he could to shut down their coal industry and threatened to do so even before the election and they still voted for him. . If we win this I would really be shocked…

sandee on October 3, 2011 at 3:45 PM

I heard that Maloney once owned a bottle of Johnny Walker Black and he never covered up the word black.
Once he even clean his floors with Spic n Span.

NeoKong on October 3, 2011 at 3:45 PM

hillbillyjim on October 3, 2011 at 3:38 PM

Uh, Mord was laying the sarcasm on pretty thick there, champ. You not catch it?

KingGold on October 3, 2011 at 3:40 PM

Heh. I was just thinking the same thing.

Jim is on a hairtrigger today.

fossten on October 3, 2011 at 3:45 PM

Manchin won that seat as a popular Democrat in a conservative, which his lieutenant governor, Earl Ray Tomblin, hoped would suffice to keep the seat away from Republicans

How do you squeeze a Democrat in a conservative? Is it like a filled doughnut?

MississippiMom on October 3, 2011 at 3:46 PM

Uh, Mord was laying the sarcasm on pretty thick there, champ. You not catch it?

KingGold on October 3, 2011 at 3:40 PM

Um, yeah, I missed it.

I am not familiar with his/her handle, and to my disgrace, I assumed the worst.

Apologies.

It’s just that folks are asleep at the wheel when their way of life is going to be damaged if Ojugears’ energy policies and prescriptions go through without challenge.

He pretends to be Robin Hood and in actuality he is just a Chicago hood.

hillbillyjim on October 3, 2011 at 3:46 PM

Dead heat.

The new tone, please.

BobMbx on October 3, 2011 at 3:46 PM

Manchin won that seat as a popular Democrat in a conservative, …

… state?

Jaibones on October 3, 2011 at 3:47 PM

That poll is raaaaacist.

Physics Geek on October 3, 2011 at 3:49 PM

Ed banned the last person who noticed his grammatical errors, tread lightly.

Bishop on October 3, 2011 at 3:50 PM

“He was a country boy from the hills and hollows of West Virginia…”

… Oh, wait!

/

Seven Percent Solution on October 3, 2011 at 3:52 PM

New PPP poll questions to look for next year:

1) Obama: best hope of mankind or God on Earth?

2) Do you plan to vote to re-elect President Obama, or will you vote to condemn the world to everlasting perdition?

3) Obama gives you a tingle up your leg, right? I’ll just put you down as a “yes” because, you know, of course.

Physics Geek on October 3, 2011 at 3:52 PM

Ed banned the last person who noticed his grammatical errors, tread lightly.

Bishop on October 3, 2011 at 3:50 PM

Me likee teh grammer.

hillbillyjim on October 3, 2011 at 3:52 PM

o/t – Knox walks

50sGuy on October 3, 2011 at 3:52 PM

OT: Amanda Knox Freed.

portlandon on October 3, 2011 at 3:54 PM

Go Mountaineers! Also it’ll be interesting if they’ll join the SEC along with A&M.

TimTebowSavesAmerica on October 3, 2011 at 3:55 PM

Yes, it is.

My already-broke neighbors are going to take it on the chin again because of this administration and their anti-energy policies.

It is sad. Some of these folks are barely able to afford their water.

hillbillyjim on October 3, 2011 at 3:42 PM

“Well, omelettes, broken eggs, greater good, you know…”
-Dems

VelvetElvis on October 3, 2011 at 3:56 PM

Republicans need to do a much better job of getting people in states like WV to understand that dem = liberal.

Sure, the local/state dem politicians manage to remain pretty conservative. But all of their US reps and senators help forward the liberal agenda. How such a conservative state can continue to elect dems is troubling and shows that the GOP is terrible at branding.

Monkeytoe on October 3, 2011 at 3:58 PM

OT: Have you seen the list of demands from the Wall Street Protesters?

http://occupywallst.org/forum/proposed-list-of-demands-for-occupy-wall-st-moveme/

I don’t think even Van Jones is that delusional.

Doughboy on October 3, 2011 at 3:58 PM

If this one goes GOP, look for the Dems to try to get Obama to pull out- or find a challenger for him (Hillary).

michaelo on October 3, 2011 at 3:29 PM

I agree to a point. I believe Dems are probably actively working to get Obama out, and coming up with a slew of excuses he could use, to get him off the campaign trail. However…unless they can pull that off, no other Dem will touch it, or take it, if they say they won’t support Obama.

They’ll never win doing that, and they know it.

capejasmine on October 3, 2011 at 3:59 PM

Doughboy on October 3, 2011 at 3:58 PM

I’d love to know just how many are on Soros’ payroll for this. LOL

capejasmine on October 3, 2011 at 4:00 PM

OT: Have you seen the list of demands from the Wall Street Protesters?

http://occupywallst.org/forum/proposed-list-of-demands-for-occupy-wall-st-moveme/

I don’t think even Van Jones is that delusional.

Scratch a liberal. Find a communist.

lorien1973 on October 3, 2011 at 4:02 PM

Ed banned the last person who noticed his grammatical errors, tread lightly.

Bishop on October 3, 2011 at 3:50 PM

Good thing he doesn’t ban people who laugh at the incompetence of his Vikings.

lorien1973 on October 3, 2011 at 4:03 PM

We’ll certainly know after tomorrow.

…when the left will howl uncontrollably.

Schadenfreude on October 3, 2011 at 4:05 PM

I’d love to know just how many are on Soros’ payroll for this. LOL

capejasmine on October 3, 2011 at 4:00 PM

Sadly these people seem dumb enough to be willing to do it for free. Especially if the alternative is working.

Doughboy on October 3, 2011 at 4:08 PM

“Thank you Mister President!’
crr6

“Not so fast…”
West Virginia voters

Khun Joe on October 3, 2011 at 4:20 PM

isn’t WV. coal country?

darwin-t on October 3, 2011 at 3:39 PM

Yes, it is.

My already-broke neighbors are going to take it on the chin again because of this administration and their anti-energy policies.

It is sad. Some of these folks are barely able to afford their water.

hillbillyjim on October 3, 2011 at 3:42 PM

I’m not aware of any other industry in W. VA.

Is there any other?

listens2glenn on October 3, 2011 at 4:23 PM

WV, please vote r and get every person you know to do so also. The more that vote, the better we do. Thank you.
L

letget on October 3, 2011 at 4:44 PM

This way they can attempt to maintain a shred of credibility when the actual numbers come in (this of course after discouraging as many undesirable voters as possible).

pain train on October 3, 2011 at 3:31 PM

And watch out during the general election. It’ll just get worse. The pollsters will actually do it against other Dems just to get their favorite to win. During Hillary vs. Obama in 2008, it was ridiculous. 20 to 30 point advantages a week before and Hillary would win the state in question. After a while, they wouldn’t even move back to realistic numbers anymore.

MrX on October 3, 2011 at 4:46 PM

Barry will be eating crow once again. What will be his excuse this time?

GarandFan on October 3, 2011 at 4:46 PM

It’s not a referendum on Obama, it’s anti-incumbent anger, or something.

Mord on October 3, 2011 at 3:35 PM

The voters have lost faith in government. Or maybe they’re just soft.

/

Ward Cleaver on October 3, 2011 at 4:52 PM

Scratch a liberal. Find a communist dirty, smelly hippy.

lorien1973 on October 3, 2011 at 4:02 PM

BigWyo on October 3, 2011 at 7:18 PM

Scratch a liberal. Find a communist dirty, smelly hippy.

lorien1973 on October 3, 2011 at 4:02 PM
BigWyo on October 3, 2011 at 7:18 PM

Yeah. Ewww. C’mon, Lorien. At most you should poke ‘em with a stick.

TexasDan on October 3, 2011 at 7:36 PM