People in Massachusetts like Sen. Scott Brown. More than 50 percent of his constituents have a favorable opinion of him and just 29 percent have an unfavorable view. But that doesn’t mean they’ll reelect him. To do that, they’d have to overcome, once again, their deeply entrenched tendency to vote for whatever Democrat happens to be on the ballot.

Right now, it seems pretty safe to assume that that Democrat will be former Obama administration official Elizabeth Warren. Scott Brown better look out. Her fever-reducing tax-hike talk appears to be working:

According to the Boston Herald/UMass-Lowell poll, in a Brown versus Warren matchup, Brown leads 41 percent to 38 percent. Meanwhile, 21 percent say they don’t know who they would vote for.

Broken down by party affiliation, the poll found that 44 percent of moderate voters would vote for Warren and 38 percent would vote for Brown. But Brown does better among independents, with 48 percent to Warren’s 29 percent, according to the poll.

Still, the poll’s findings are good news for Warren, who only jumped into the Senate race recently but already leads the Democratic primary field for the nomination. A recent PPP poll had even more promising numbers for Warren. That poll found the former Obama administration official and consumer protection advocate ahead of Brown, 46 percent to 44 percent.

But the poll’s findings are also good news for the GOP: Tight races remind Republicans that taking back the Senate is every bit as important as taking back the White House, if not more so. They remind them to take no seat for granted and to campaign relentlessly. Scott Brown’s initial election didn’t prevent the passage of Obamacare as was popularly hoped — but his reelection combined with Republican victories in other states (or just enough Republican victories, in general) is the only way to repeal.

P.S. Here’s one of my favorite smack-downs of Warren’s now-notoriously shabby take on taxation. Warren says: “There is nobody in this country who got rich on his own. Nobody.” Libby Sternberg says: “There are no rich people in this country who want people to be poor. None.” Agreed.