Rasmussen: Obama 44, Christie … 43

posted at 11:25 am on September 30, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

He’s not running.  He’s said it a number of times, at least publicly, that he has no interest in challenging for the Republican nomination.  But if he did run, the latest Rasmussen poll shows Chris Christie in a virtual tie with Barack Obama:

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows that Obama earns 44% support in the matchup, while Christie attracts 43%. Six percent (6%) prefer a third option, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. These numbers place Christie in the same league as other top GOP hopefuls within single digits of Obama including former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, Texas Governor Rick Perry  and businessman Herman Cain.

But not even the enthusiastic responders believe Christie will actually run:

However, just 26% believe the first-term governor is likely to run for the White House, a figure that includes only five percent (5%) who think he is Very Likely to run. Twenty percent (20%) of all voters think Christie should run for the White House, but nearly twice as many (37%) say he should not.

Among Republicans, 32% say he should run, 25% hold the opposite view, and 43% are not sure. Just 31% of GOP voters believe he is even somewhat likely to run, while 44% see a Christie campaign as unlikely.

Let’s take a look at the internals.  Christie wins men by a wide margin, 50/39, but loses women by the same margin, 37/48.  Voters under 50 favor Obama, while voters over 50 favor Christie.  Christie wins an edge with independents, 42/37, but not by a lot.  Oddly, 17% of conservatives would prefer to vote for Obama in this matchup, with only 69% sticking with Christie, and he loses big among moderates (30/48) and of course with liberals (8/88).

Compare that to Mitt Romney’s performance in a Rasmussen poll ten days ago, when he trailed Obama by only 3 points, 44/41.  Romney actually gets edged among independents 38/39, but Obama gets less traction, and undecideds will usually break against an incumbent.  Romney holds 76% of conservatives, too, but loses even bigger than Christie among self-professed moderates 30/57, probably because of being a more known quantity.

Does Christie position the GOP against Obama any better than Romney, who may be at least a little more conservative?  It doesn’t really appear so, and in a primary, they would probably occupy similar policy space.  Romney has also been in the race for a long time, and his numbers are therefore more solid.  As soon as Christie jumps into the race, people will start perusing his record with the same vigor as they have with Rick Perry and will find big issues.  Family Research Council president Tony Perkins has already warned that evangelicals will not flock to Christie’s side based on his track record in New Jersey.  As the debate sharpens on Christie’s record, these poll numbers could come down fairly quickly.

I’d still guess that Christie stays out.  However, this does show that he’d be competitive in a general election, and that may say a lot about the future of the incumbent.  Meanwhile, be sure to read Jazz Shaw’s pushback on Christie’s weight, especially with people who throw donuts from fat houses.

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It appears that Christie is the soup du jour that must be beaten over our heads.

search4truth on September 30, 2011 at 11:28 AM

Christie is combative, not conservative.

JohnTant on September 30, 2011 at 11:28 AM

Meanwhile, be sure to read Jazz Shaw’s pushback on Christie’s weight, especially with people who throw donuts from fat houses.

fat, it’s the new bla….., er. nevermind.

ted c on September 30, 2011 at 11:29 AM

Is that his poll number or his pant size?

I keed, I keed…..

tpw on September 30, 2011 at 11:30 AM

These polls are meaningless! A truly wasteful mental exercise. Christie is not even in the race yet and they are projecting him as GOP nominee. Its ridiculous. These polls have only one purpose: to manipulate the public. Christie has to get in and perform before a poll of him should be taken seriously. Enough already!

milemarker2020 on September 30, 2011 at 11:30 AM

All this means is that Christie is generic republian until his positions are known.

Vashta.Nerada on September 30, 2011 at 11:30 AM

Picture shows how Cristie is twice the man Obama is. Sorry. Had to go there.

Paul-Cincy on September 30, 2011 at 11:30 AM

Another post on another person who isn’t running.

I would enjoy a post about the chances of Zombie Reagan a lot more.

catmman on September 30, 2011 at 11:30 AM

In that picture, Christie looks like he could swallow Obama in one bite, like the whale that ate Pinocchio’s dad.

Alden Pyle on September 30, 2011 at 11:32 AM

So pretty much everyone who might possibly run against PBHO is capable of putting the dude away for good, excellent.

Lizard Man has yet to announce but I’m thinking it would be:

Lizard 45%, PBHO 43%.

Bishop on September 30, 2011 at 11:32 AM

Does Christie position the GOP against Obama any better than Romney, who may be at least a little more conservative?

Romney is a little more conservative? You mean the guy singing the praises of Social Security and attacking Perry on the issue from the left? There is no way of knowing if Mitt is more conservative than Christie, he’ll say anything to get elected. So yeah, I’d take Christie over Romney any day of the week.

Lawdawg86 on September 30, 2011 at 11:34 AM

King Kris Kristy?

/NJ teacher

KingGold on September 30, 2011 at 11:34 AM

It appears that Christie is the soup du jour that must be beaten over our heads.

search4truth on September 30, 2011 at 11:28 AM

Well, you posted the truth. I think more and more people
are catching on to what is going on.

Amjean on September 30, 2011 at 11:35 AM

Obama2008 is polling better than Obama2011 by 15 points.

portlandon on September 30, 2011 at 11:35 AM

I would like my candidate to be called to serve not reluctantly get in and have to be begged. They need to able to articulate conservative principles and why they work and they need to be inspiring. Only one candidate in it right now fits all three.

ldbgcoleman on September 30, 2011 at 11:39 AM

Oddly, 17% of conservatives would prefer to vote for Obama in this matchup, with only 69% sticking with Christie

It’s not odd, Ed. Every poll by Rasmussen is like that. It means conservatives haven’t settled on a preferred candidate yet. This is actually a good sign. Whomever ends up with the nomination will almost assuredly have 90+% of conservatives backing them immediately which will give them a solid lead over Barry.

Doughboy on September 30, 2011 at 11:39 AM

I would like my candidate to be called to serve not reluctantly get in and have to be begged. They need to able to articulate conservative principles and why they work and they need to be inspiring. Only one candidate in it right now fits all three.

ldbgcoleman on September 30, 2011 at 11:39 AM

Palin 2012!

ConservativePartyNow on September 30, 2011 at 11:40 AM

Well, we’re having no luck shoving Romney down their throats, so let’s try someone else.

/GOP (NOT “Conservative”) Establishment

CurtZHP on September 30, 2011 at 11:41 AM

Needed for the photo:
Two derbies and one small mustache.

Dr. Carlo Lombardi on September 30, 2011 at 11:41 AM

All this means is that Christie is generic republian until his positions are known.

Vashta.Nerada on September 30, 2011 at 11:30 AM

Can’t imagine someone of Chris Christies magnitude having many positions.

Knucklehead on September 30, 2011 at 11:43 AM

Bishop on September 30, 2011 at 11:32 AM

Who is “Lizard Man”?

pseudonominus on September 30, 2011 at 11:43 AM

CurtZHP on September 30, 2011 at 11:41 AM

That’s pretty weak on the logic.

If the “establishment” was pushing Romney so hard, why would they seek out Christie at all? Why wouldn’t they pimp Romney harder?

I swear, Rush is getting way ahead of himself on this idea.

KingGold on September 30, 2011 at 11:44 AM

We’ll all be in Christie’s gravitational pull soon.

lorien1973 on September 30, 2011 at 11:45 AM

I don’t know how to love them.
What to do, how to move them.
I’ve been changed, yes really changed.
In these past few days, when I’ve seen myself,
I seem like someone else.
I don’t know how to take this.
I don’t see why he moves me.
They are Rinos. just a Rino.
And I’ve voted for so many ones before,
In very many ways,
They are just one more.
Should I bring him down?
Should I scream and shout?
Should I speak of Romneycare,
Say the one is too fat?
I never thought I’d come to this.
What’s it all about?
Don’t you think it’s rather funny,
I should be in this position.
I’m the one who’s always been
So calm, so cool, no fatty’s fool,
Running every show.
They scare me so.
I never thought I’d come to this.
What’s it all about?
Yet, if they said they are conservative,
I’d be lost. I’d be frightened.
I couldn’t cope, just couldn’t cope.
I’d turn my head. I’d back away.
I wouldn’t want to know.
They scare me so.
I want them so.
I love them so

Bradky on September 30, 2011 at 11:46 AM

Christie will have Scott Rasmussen to thank as this only means one thing: a sudden sharp turn in media focus on the grave problem and epidemic of obesity!

RepubChica on September 30, 2011 at 11:49 AM

Bishop on September 30, 2011 at 11:32 AM

Who is “Lizard Man”?

pseudonominus on September 30, 2011 at 11:43 AM

pseudonominus:Here ya go!!!!
============================

The Lizard People ballot solved
Posted at 5:43 PM on November 21, 2008
***************************************

http://minnesota.publicradio.org/collections/special/columns/news_cut/archive/2008/11/the_lizard_people_ballot_solve.shtml

canopfor on September 30, 2011 at 11:49 AM

He can’t jump in now that he’s repeatedly said he’s not interested or ready and doesn’t tell himself to get in. This supposed poll result would evaporate once he did announce just like Perry’s did. The media and pollsters are working overtime to pick our ‘guy’ and muddy the waters so that people don’t know who they really like.

Kissmygrits on September 30, 2011 at 11:50 AM

This supposed poll result would evaporate once he did announce just like Perry’s did.

Perry’s dropped cuz he underperformed, badly.

lorien1973 on September 30, 2011 at 11:54 AM

All the “fat” jokes are really getting old. I don’t care if he runs or not, but if he doesn’t his endorsement will be huge.

SouthernGent on September 30, 2011 at 11:54 AM

Wait a tic,nice try,Hopey is the 44TH President.
Sounds like someone thought this one out,long and
hard….and its really Coinky Dinky,er,coincidental
me thinks…not!!
(snark)

canopfor on September 30, 2011 at 11:56 AM

Doesn’t he look like the guy in Stephen King’s “Thinner”?

50sGuy on September 30, 2011 at 11:56 AM

Run, fat man, run! We need to clarify and confirm the collapse of the establishment.

rrpjr on September 30, 2011 at 11:57 AM

Perry’s dropped cuz he underperformed, badly.

lorien1973 on September 30, 2011 at 11:54 AM

Exactly. And it was only the 3rd debate that did him in. The first 2 debate performances were average at best, yet he was just fine in the polls going into the 3rd one.

If there’s one thing Christie is very good at, it’s articulating fiscal conservatism and thinking quickly on his feet. I think he’d do fine at the debates and would never be at risk of a Perry-esque flameout.

Doughboy on September 30, 2011 at 11:58 AM

All the “fat” jokes are really getting old. I don’t care if he runs or not, but if he doesn’t his endorsement will be huge.

SouthernGent on September 30, 2011 at 11:54 AM

AHA!

fiatboomer on September 30, 2011 at 12:01 PM

State of Emergency, Obama-style: Polls like this may mean that Team Obama is looking for some out-of-the-box measures to avoid the 2012 defeat that is looming ahead.

Mutnodjmet on September 30, 2011 at 12:01 PM

I would like my candidate to be called to serve not reluctantly get in and have to be begged. They need to able to articulate conservative principles and why they work and they need to be inspiring. Only one candidate in it right now fits all three.

ldbgcoleman on September 30, 2011 at 11:39 AM

Palin 2012!

ConservativePartyNow on September 30, 2011 at 11:40 AM

Palin isn’t a candidate.

catmman on September 30, 2011 at 12:03 PM

Have you noticed when bho shakes hands with someone, he will most times not look at them? It’s almost as if he shakes on the run. I have seen pictures like this one numerous times.
L

letget on September 30, 2011 at 12:04 PM

All the “fat” jokes are really getting old. I don’t care if he runs or not, but if he doesn’t his endorsement will be huge.

SouthernGent on September 30, 2011 at 11:54 AM

You thinkin’ he’s gonna throw his fat in the ring?

MrScribbler on September 30, 2011 at 12:05 PM

Christie will have Scott Rasmussen to thank as this only means one thing: a sudden sharp turn in media focus on the grave problem and epidemic of obesity!

RepubChica on September 30, 2011 at 11:49 AM

Where some see an “obesity epidemic”, others see a “fat moment” in America.

Lawdawg86 on September 30, 2011 at 12:05 PM

I’d be lost. I’d be frightened.
I couldn’t cope, just couldn’t cope.
I’d turn my head. I’d back away.
I wouldn’t want to know.
They scare me so.
I want them so.
I love them so

Bradky on September 30, 2011 at 11:46 AM

Original work? Perhaps a political poetry blog is in your future.

RepubChica on September 30, 2011 at 12:06 PM

milemarker2020 on September 30, 2011 at 11:30 AM
I agree. I’ve had enough of these meaningless polls.

ulyses on September 30, 2011 at 12:08 PM

Rush touched on this either yesterday, or the day before. It was his thought that Christie is being foisted out there by the establishment Republicans, because they want us to want anyone but a hard core Conservative, and he specifically named Cain as that Conservative.

capejasmine on September 30, 2011 at 12:08 PM

If the “establishment” was pushing Romney so hard, why would they seek out Christie at all? Why wouldn’t they pimp Romney harder?

KingGold on September 30, 2011 at 11:44 AM

Like I said, Romney is still underperforming for their tastes, so time to come up with someone else.

CurtZHP on September 30, 2011 at 12:10 PM

Where some see an “obesity epidemic”, others see a “fat moment” in America.

Lawdawg86 on September 30, 2011 at 12:05 PM

Quite possibly. Christie is extremely confident and accepting of himself.

RepubChica on September 30, 2011 at 12:10 PM

YOU, get in my belly!

hanzblinx on September 30, 2011 at 12:11 PM

Poor debating skills and his inability to think on his feet is just one factor that has helped do Perry in. His general attitude toward borders and illegal immigration, a record of pay-to-play and, most recently, the Islamic curriculum he helped usher into Texas public schools are things that have turned him off to conservatives.

Acting like a cowboy and being a “good ‘ol boy” may do it in Texas but not in the rest of the country.

bw222 on September 30, 2011 at 12:12 PM

The “establishment” is pulling out all the stops, aren’t they…

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

golfmann on September 30, 2011 at 12:13 PM

RepubChica on September 30, 2011 at 12:06 PM

LOL

Bradky on September 30, 2011 at 12:13 PM

The real head exploder?

From Alternate Reality News, a service of Hot Air Comments:

ATLANTA, Oct. 15 — Herman Cain’s presidential campaign received a double shot in the arm today as the two people who were thought to be likely candidates – former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and current New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie – jointly announced their support for the former head of Godfather’s Pizza.

“No, he didn’t buy me off with a lifetime supply,” Christie quipped.

“You betcha gotta love that his economic policy is dressed to the nines,” added Palin.

either orr on September 30, 2011 at 12:14 PM

_____ vs Obama

_____ has big numbers

_____ has big ego that gets pulled into race

_____ initially has big approval number once in race

_____ sinks like a rock after people get a second look

It’s getting old.

Moesart on September 30, 2011 at 12:15 PM

Even a left wing RINO that can’t beat Romney, can beat Obama.

That’s good news.

faraway on September 30, 2011 at 12:16 PM

The more a candidate gets dumped on by purists, the more I like him.

The RINO-hunt is going to give us four more years of Obama if we don’t watch ourselves.

Red Cloud on September 30, 2011 at 12:16 PM

The more a candidate gets dumped on by purists, the more I like him.

Red Cloud on September 30, 2011 at 12:16 PM

So, the more left wing, the better?

faraway on September 30, 2011 at 12:20 PM

So, the more left wing, the better?

faraway on September 30, 2011 at 12:20 PM

He didn’t say “conservatives.” He said “purists.” Purists aren’t conservatives. They’re personality-driven zealots.

KingGold on September 30, 2011 at 12:22 PM

Original work? Perhaps a political poetry blog is in your future.

RepubChica on September 30, 2011 at 12:06 PM

That’s from Jesus Christ Superstar

pseudonominus on September 30, 2011 at 12:25 PM

Christie would fall apart once the vetting began. Conservatives would run away in droves.

The man is a one-trick pony.

ButterflyDragon on September 30, 2011 at 12:25 PM

The RINO-hunt is going to give us four more years of Obama if we don’t watch ourselves.

Red Cloud on September 30, 2011 at 12:16 PM

Oh dear. We need to watch ourselves.

RINOs gave us Obama.

Reload.

rrpjr on September 30, 2011 at 12:25 PM

Ask Christie about the 2nd Amendment.

Texas Gal on September 30, 2011 at 12:26 PM

This supposed poll result would evaporate once he did announce just like Perry’s did.

Perry’s dropped cuz he underperformed, badly.

lorien1973 on September 30, 2011 at 11:54 AM

rickyricardo on September 30, 2011 at 12:28 PM

The RINO-hunt is going to give us four more years of Obama if we don’t watch ourselves.

Red Cloud on September 30, 2011 at 12:16 PM

Rasmussen just said that Jefferson Davis could beat Obama at this point.

/

faraway on September 30, 2011 at 12:29 PM

Rush said he would fund a poll, it has to be legit company, to put Micky Mouse agains bho and see who comes out on top!
L

letget on September 30, 2011 at 12:34 PM

That’s from Jesus Christ Superstar

pseudonominus on September 30, 2011 at 12:25 PM

Good catch – usually I remember to credit the orginal score. If you recognized it right away I’d guess you are not too far from the 50 something set!

Bradky on September 30, 2011 at 12:36 PM

All this means is that Christie is generic Republican until his positions are known.

Vashta.Nerada on September 30, 2011 at 11:30 AM

So true. I like his fight and candidness just not the majority of his positions, which happen to be extremely liberal leaning. I hope he gets in so he splits the moderate/liberal/establishment vote with Romney. As Rush said yesterday, that paves the way for the best Conservative candidate to win. Go for it Christie!

conservative pilgrim on September 30, 2011 at 12:37 PM

Rush said he would fund a poll, it has to be legit company, to put Micky Mouse agains bho and see who comes out on top!
L

letget on September 30, 2011 at 12:34 PM

Mickey Mouse wins in a LANDSLIDE. Can you imagine the kid vote?

conservative pilgrim on September 30, 2011 at 12:40 PM

Styles make the fight- that’s why Christie is so attractive to many.
He probably is similar politically to Romney but the guy knows how to come across as real and honest even if you disagree with him.
His style is anti-Obama and it will resonate in a huge way if he runs ( so many fat puns).

jjshaka on September 30, 2011 at 12:43 PM

Anyone know what happened to the monthly candidate poll?

It was there now it’s gone…

What’s up?

idesign on September 30, 2011 at 12:45 PM

Anyone know what happened to the monthly candidate poll?

It was there now it’s gone…

What’s up?

idesign on September 30, 2011 at 12:45 PM

another casualty of crony capitalism…

Bradky on September 30, 2011 at 12:50 PM

All this means is that Christie is generic republian until his positions are known.

Vashta.Nerada on September 30, 2011 at 11:30 AM

I think this about sums it up. Most people don’t know much about his record beyond the union-busting.

Missy on September 30, 2011 at 12:54 PM

Oddly, 17% of conservatives would prefer to vote for Obama in this matchup, with only 69% sticking with Christie, and he loses big among moderates (30/48) and of course with liberals (8/88).

BS

angryed on September 30, 2011 at 12:55 PM

I love the accompanying picture! To me it looks like a sumo match, one that Christie is winning.

:-D

Mary in LA on September 30, 2011 at 1:00 PM

Oddly, 17% of conservatives would prefer to vote for Obama in this matchup, with only 69% sticking with Christie, and he loses big among moderates (30/48) and of course with liberals (8/88).

BS

angryed on September 30, 2011 at 12:55 PM

Maybe. But I remember, four years ago, on these very pages, some posters saying that they would stay home rather than vote for McCain. Whether they did or not in the end, I don’t know.

Some men just want to watch the world burn.”

Mary in LA on September 30, 2011 at 1:02 PM

“Some men just want to watch the world burn.”

Mary in LA on September 30, 2011 at 1:02 PM

Thought I’d better amplify that. I don’t think anyone on our side of the aisle gets off on wanton destruction. But the wish to see our nation in flames so that it can rise again, phoenix-like from its corrupt ashes as a pure and Constitutional nation again is strong.

I understand the feeling, and sometimes feel it myself. But I don’t think for one minute that our enemies would give us the time and space to regroup. They’d pick our carcass clean, exulting all the while, before our second sieve ill wore got even close to being resolved.

Mary in LA on September 30, 2011 at 1:06 PM

All this says is that a year out any potential candidate that the GOP puts forward has a good chance of beating Obama. And that’s with the election over a year away, a time when most people aren’t really paying attention to politics.

A year from now, when the economy still sucks and a fifth of the population isn’t working, the polls will be really interesting. After all, who’s going to pay attention to the economy when we can go out and see a movie where Obama watches the SEALS kill bin Laden?

Christie is not a good choice. I know the establishment people like Kristol really don’t want the great unwashed masses choosing the candidate. But the fact is that a lot of these guys are NOT going to energize the base. Choosing a guy like Christie, Huntsman, or Romney is going to spell doom for the GOP–if not in the election, then afterwards when the establishment starts to take it’s pound of flesh from one of these guys….

PetecminMd on September 30, 2011 at 1:11 PM

PetecminMd on September 30, 2011 at 1:11 PM

There are two very telling reasons why the self professed conservatives don’t form their own party. First, they wouldn’t be able to create the structure and fundraising efforts needed to compete, and secondly they realize that they are in the minority of the GOP at large — important things to say but not close to a majority of the party.
This leaves them with rhetoric only. Sort of like the person you let stay at your house because they have no where else to go, yet they complain about how you run your affairs.

Bradky on September 30, 2011 at 1:17 PM

Have you noticed when bho shakes hands with someone, he will most times not look at them? It’s almost as if he shakes on the run. I have seen pictures like this one numerous times.
L

letget on September 30, 2011 at 12:04 PM

Yes, and he’s always got that shoulder-grab dominance thing going on.

txsurveyor on September 30, 2011 at 1:19 PM

Poll’s weighted.

MaxMBJ on September 30, 2011 at 1:30 PM

Romney would beat him by 25% if he was not running.

borntoraisehogs on September 30, 2011 at 2:01 PM

Christie would destroy the One. Romney will gently defeat the One.

Perry or Palin would be destroyed.

I hope

Poor communicators will not win versus Obama under any circumstance.

rickyricardo on September 30, 2011 at 2:07 PM

Missed in Ed’s sotry is that Mitt Romney is the only Republican beating Obama in this poll.

sheryl on September 30, 2011 at 2:15 PM

Oops that would be “story”

sheryl on September 30, 2011 at 2:15 PM

Poor communicators will not win versus Obama under any circumstance.

rickyricardo on September 30, 2011 at 2:07 PM

So true.

sheryl on September 30, 2011 at 2:16 PM

Eugene Robinson prefers a leader who is in ‘optimum health’ so that they can ‘perform best.’

Like that ‘Adonis’ Anthony Wiener, perhaps?

CaptFlood on September 30, 2011 at 2:40 PM

Christie’s stance on global warming, the Second Amendment, Sharia Law, Et Al are all sufficient to place him near the bottom of my list.

I don’t care what someone looks like, what sex, race, or gender they are, just as long as they and I are in firm agreement on three or four of my top issues. The libs don’t get this; we do.

Of the declared candidates, Cain is currently in my #1 slot, but I’ll also be the first to admit that with such a great opportunity to take back the presidency, we’ve fielded a remarkably weak crop.

‘Jindal/Rubio’ in 2016, perhaps?

CaptFlood on September 30, 2011 at 2:45 PM

OBAMA 44, CHRISTIE 43

No way. It’s Obama 170, Christie 340,

Christie is twice the man Obama is.

Christie: A big man for a big job.

Vote Christie: Pi$$ of FLOTUS and the fatists!

Cut the fat, Vote Christie

Vote for the man who man who will trim the fat … before eating it.

Stop nibbling at the edges, take a big bite out of the Budget….and everything else.

Krispie Christie: Not fit for any office (or chair).

Basilsbest on September 30, 2011 at 5:28 PM

Christie Christie – tipping the scales in our favor.
Watch him weigh in against a top heavy government.

Basilsbest on September 30, 2011 at 5:32 PM

Ask Christie about the 2nd Amendment.

Texas Gal on September 30, 2011 at 12:26 PM
————————–

also his disdain for Legal Carry Concealed , his support of Obamacare, cap and tax and the ground zero mosque ?

Sandybourne on September 30, 2011 at 6:07 PM