Florida poll puts Romney up two points over …

posted at 10:45 am on September 29, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

Maybe that P5 straw poll in Florida had more significance than some thought.  A new poll by Survey USA of likely Florida primary voters shows Mitt Romney ahead in the GOP nomination race at 27%, but the second-place finisher comes within the margin of error — and it’s not Rick Perry:

In the Florida Republican Primary for President, Mitt Romney at 27% edges Herman Cain at 25%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV Tampa. Rick Perry finishes 3rd with 13%, others further back. The Primary is tentatively, and controversially, scheduled for 4 months from today, on 01/31/12,

Romney is strong among older voters, women, moderates and in Southeast Florida. Cain is strong among men, younger voters, Tea Party members, affluent voters and in Northeast Florida. Perry is strong among those who say they are “very conservative,” among those who attend religious services regularly, among Evangelicals and in Northwest Florida.

Newt Gingrich at 6%, and Michelle Bachmann and Ron Paul at 5%, effectively tie for 4th place. Jon Huntsman, in 7th place, finishes ahead of Rick Santorum.

Survey USA has a lot more credibility than Zogby’s online interactive polls do, and Florida is a significant state.  This survey took place Saturday through Tuesday, and SUSA culled 500 likely voters from almost 1400 responses on both landlines and cellphones.  I’d be interested to see how the general-survey numbers turned out, and how each day’s tally worked out.  Even apart from that, though, Herman Cain obviously made a big impression on Florida voters in the debate as well as at the straw poll.

Cain ended up winning a couple of key demographics, especially the age demos of 35-49 and 50-64, leading Romney by double digits in each.  Romney won seniors handily, 34/19 over Cain.  Cain won Hispanic voters 22/16 over Romney.  Cain won men (32/22) and Romney won women (31/17).  Not surprisingly, Cain also won self-identified Tea Party voters, although not by as much as one might think at 34/26. Romney won the lower- and middle-income voters, but Cain edged him among those making more than $80K, 28/27.

Rick Perry did surprisingly poorly in this survey.  He only got 13% for a distant third, barely ahead of the undecideds at 12%, but well ahead of the second tier. Perry didn’t seriously challenge in any of the demographic categories, finishing at less than half of the Tea Party support Cain got (34/16).  Perry’s not the only candidate to do poorly in Florida, either; Michele Bachmann finished at 5% overall and 4% among Tea Party voters, trailing Newt Gingrich in both categories at 6% and 8%, respectively.

At least for the moment, Herman Cain’s momentum is real — in Florida, and that’s no small feat.

Breaking on Hot Air



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technopeasant on September 29, 2011 at 12:17 PM
mozalf on September 29, 2011 at 12:29 PM
Most polls out there show Romney with strong support and he has only been running since early 2007 not 7 years techno…

Many people in the country last go around WANTED to vote for Romney who had already picked up NH, MI, NV, and was on his way to winning in WV when Huckabee and McCain who couldn’t beat him in the voting and so Huckabee voters threw their votes to McCain thus taking Romney out and stunting his momentum into SC and then FL was after where Romney eventually dropped out to rally HIS supporters behind McCain vice what was going on the Democratic ticket where it was being smartly dragged out by Operation Chaos. We are doing that to ourselves somewhat this year having 8-10 candidates and others “thinking” of getting in. The MSM loves this spectacle…

Romney is a strong candidate and will make a great President! There is more support for him than what you may believe.

g2825m on September 29, 2011 at 12:52 PM

Yeah, it’s like deja vu all over again: McCain had “strong” support, too – from the republican establishment. And so Romney would have lost in 2008 if he had succeeded and we’d be stuck with McCain now getting rammed down our throats this time. We’d get the same results continuously hitting our heads with a hammer as with a Romney candidacy. Sorry, enough is enough. The republican establishment is fracturing us – always kicking conservatives in the teeth (unless they need us). Romney is an appeaser as he’s showing us he is with Romneycare. So if it’s Romney, it’s is a stay home election for me. 4 more years of a liberal disaster may be what it finally takes then to wake people up, sorry to say.

mozalf on September 29, 2011 at 2:46 PM

Why is Cain qualified to be President, again?

changer1701 on September 29, 2011 at 11:25 AM

Something to do with junk food, I think.

MJBrutus on September 29, 2011 at 3:02 PM

It is a dig at Palin to call Herman Cain, Herb, but it really doesn’t do him any favors if people start to not remember his name.

I don’t think Cain is all that qualified either but he is still better than everyone but Romney.

Cain would be second, and I started this thing believing that there was no way Romney could ever win. The Mormon thing.

So if the establishment suceeds in knocking Romney out to put the resident establishment puppet, Perry, in his place, I will then vote for Cain.

petunia on September 29, 2011 at 3:23 PM

it’s is a stay home election for me. 4 more years of a liberal disaster may be what it finally takes then to wake people up, sorry to say.

mozalf on September 29, 2011 at 2:46 PM

I have available for qualified persons, the Official Cut-Off-Your-Nose-To-Spite-America butter knife. You are pre-qualified and are eligible for a rebate when you send us a photo of yourself hacking your noise off while screaming at the top of your lungs (the day after Obama stacks the SCOTUS with progressives)…..

“I told you 8astards so!!”

csdeven on September 29, 2011 at 4:08 PM

Herman Cain is qualified to be President.

He is at least 35 Years of Age on the day of the election and an American Citizen.

All of this other crap about qualifications is largely irrelevant nonsense. Of the governors in the race, one had a strategy of showing up as himself, a boastful Texas bighorn who wasn’t Romney, the other has been running for President since 2004 and will do, say anything to wash away the legacy of his father’s, George Romney’s, failed presidential run. The third governor is an Obama employee and can’t hit 4%. The 4th one is a light version of Ron Paul who also can’t hit 4%.

Herman Cain has turned around two large, failing enterprises and made them successful. If you count Romney’s Olympics turnaround, that still puts Cain ahead by 1. Cain also never had Romney’s material advantages growing up, so it makes his efforts all the more impressive.

Cain was literally a rocket scientist in the Navy and has a degree in Mathematics. If you’re questioning his intelligence or ability, you really need to stop imbibing the Romney/Perry kool-aid like they’re the only two choices that we must settle for.

As for me, I don’t want either of them to be the nominee, and I’ll raise Cain to solve that problem.

BKennedy on September 29, 2011 at 9:58 PM

Texas biglonghorn


Texas Gal on September 30, 2011 at 11:32 AM

Amen BKennedy . Mr Cain is best suited for the job. we have had decades of professional politicians. That’s how we got to the mess we are in now. EINSTIEN said that repeating the same procedures time and time again and expecting differing results is a mark of insanity. We are in deep sh*t now so lets change our procedure and see what the results are. if we elect another professional politician we are just begging for more of the same.

ColdWarrior57 on September 30, 2011 at 4:30 PM

amen BKennedy and ColdWarrior, the people questioning his “qualifications” sound like the pundits from MSLSD.

We need him PRECISELY because he’s NOT STATUS QUO.

1. He’s never been a Community Organizer
2. He doesn’t have a Harvard degree
3. He never voted “present”
4. He isn’t starting his political career with William Ayers
5. He doesn’t go to Rev. Wright’s “church”

So just get over it, and send him some $$ so he can get the nomination and kick Obama’s butt!

kirkill on September 30, 2011 at 4:42 PM

Herman Cain will be on the Tonight Show tonight 9/30/11

bluefox on September 30, 2011 at 8:14 PM

Far be it from me to note that the name sprung from somebody’s ignorance about the GOP presidential field.

KingGold on September 29, 2011 at 10:57 AM

She’s Shakespeare, ya know! She’s just having fun with the language and creating new words like “refudiate”.

-Aslan’s Girl

Aslans Girl on September 30, 2011 at 10:02 PM

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