Oh my: Palin within five of Obama in new Marist poll

posted at 9:20 pm on September 20, 2011 by Allahpundit

The Palin fans on Twitter were nudging me to post this before I’d even seen it. Now I understand why. Might be the best poll she’s had since the ’08 election.

After trailing Obama by more than 20 percentage points in polls all year, the new national survey, taken Sept. 13-14, found Palin trailing the president by just 5 points, 49-44 percent. The key reason: She now leads Obama among independents, a sharp turnaround…

By a margin of 49 percent to 36 percent, voters said they definitely plan to vote against Obama, according to the poll. Independents by 53 percent to 28 percent said they definitely plan to vote against him…

Obama is neck and neck with Romney, leading by 46-44. Obama had led by 5 points in August, 4 points in June, and 1 point in April. Romney now leads among independents, 44 percent to 40 percent.

Obama leads Perry by 50 percent to 41 percent. They split independents 43-43. Obama had led Perry by 19 points in August, as Perry was joining the campaign.

Some of what’s going on here, obviously, is utter public exhaustion with Hopenchange and Obamanomics. If I were David Plouffe, that 49/36 split on voters who say they’ll definitely vote against The One would make me wet myself. But some of it’s specific to Palin too: Look no further than the fact that she now fares better against Obama than Perry does — and actually leads him among independents. That’s an astounding turnaround given the trend in her polling over the past three years and a huge boost for Palinistas vis-a-vis questions about her electability. That said, I’m not sure how to square this with other recent polls showing grimmer numbers for her. When Rasmussen polled her head to head against Obama at the start of the month, he found her trailing by 12 points among likely voters. That was a bigger margin than Romney, Perry, Paul, Cain and even Jon Huntsman faced. And the new NYT/CBS poll published last Friday showing brutal new numbers for Obama also found Palin’s favorables at an all-time low — 20/62, with even a plurality of Republicans saying they view her unfavorably (39 percent, compared to 36 who view her favorably).

Exit question: What explains the sudden surge? Did her attack on crony capitalism in her Indianola speech strike a chord with independents? Or is her amazing name recognition helping her here? The more disgusted the public is with O, the more open they are to voting on “Anybody But Obama” grounds, and thus the more it stands to reason that they’d react favorably to a Republican alternative whom they’re already very familiar with.

Breaking on Hot Air

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Did you rinse, dry and put the bowl back away?…

Gohawgs on September 21, 2011 at 8:18 PM

Soooooiiiiiieeee! :D

Lanceman on September 21, 2011 at 9:04 PM

Just that there is no reason to rehash what we have already discussed and disagreed on. Neither of us is going to change our minds.
Cindy Munford on September 21, 2011 at 8:13 PM

Fine, but why did you say you’re going to be watching me from here on in? The topic of this thread was not, Who is the most conservative candidate?. Herman Cain is probably the most conservative candidate. Is he the best possible candidate? I like him very much, subscribe to his emails, used to listen to his radio show (if I happened to be in the car when he came on), joined the “intelligent thinkers movement” well before he announced, went to a Tea Party event he hosted at the birth of the movement. But he is not ready for the White House as he has huge gaps in his resume’ and it way too untested as a politician – and thus makes too many unforced errors.

You probably liked her as long as she was perceived to be hurting Palin.
ddrintn on September 21, 2011 at 8:13 PM

Jeez, I certainly hope you’re not in law school or planning on being a lawyer. Once again you open the door to something you know nothing about and get a big fat “F”. I contributed to her Congressional campaign and finally had to cut off her calls and emails. I talked about how overly aggressive she was right here at Hot Air. It has NOTHING to do with Palin.

Buy Danish on September 21, 2011 at 9:58 PM

Drat, I missed this:

Just because a candidate gets an A+ on ‘conservative values’ is no guarantee that they’ll be the most effective executive. See, say, Michele Bachmann who would be an absolute disaster.

You don’t know that she would be any more of a disaster as executive as, say, Mitt Romney was as governor of Massachusetts. SUccess with Bain Capital is no indicator of a successful presidency, either.

.
Uh, yes I do. There’s a huge leap from being a member of the House and President. She was a nightmare during the Debt Ceiling debate, screwed up in N.H. and Ohio with embarrassing bloopers, and the Gardisil kerfuffle was a complete disaster for her (and we’re very early into this campaign!).

As for Romney, did I assert he was the most conservative candidate? No? I didn’t think so. What’s your point again?

I’ll be gone tomorrow for a tennis match so if you manage to find an answer I won’t be here to read it.

Buy Danish on September 21, 2011 at 10:10 PM

Buy Danish on September 21, 2011 at 9:58 PM

Yes, the topic of the thread is Gov. Palin being within five points of The Won. I’m smart enough to know that this is an outlier but optimistic enough to hope it is the beginning of good things to come. You, on the other hand, hope that it is never repeated. I like Gov. Palin, you don’t. I don’t get myself all twisted into knots about her because 1) that’s not who I am and 2) she is not a declared candidate.

Cindy Munford on September 21, 2011 at 10:20 PM

You, on the other hand, hope that it is never repeated. I like Gov. Palin, you don’t. I don’t get myself all twisted into knots about her because 1) that’s not who I am and 2) she is not a declared candidate.
Cindy Munford on September 21, 2011 at 10:20 PM

Nothing you said here has anything to do with my comments at this thread. I dislike her recent, underhanded tactics which are exacerbated exactly because…she’s not a declared candidate. How many times do I need to make that point? I’ve laid it out very clearly. To the extent that I get “twisted in knots” it’s because of the twisted comments from her supporters (not you – the others).

You made a comment about how we should support “the most conservative candidate”. I responded in good faith and got a disturbing response from you. Do note: Palin’s not a candidate so she shouldn’t even be part of that discussion at this time. If she’s left out, too bad for her. Oh well, the bottom line: I like to get to the truth about things. That’s who I am.

Goodnight.

Buy Danish on September 21, 2011 at 10:45 PM

I like to get to the truth about things. That’s who I am Buy Danish on September 21, 2011 at 10:45 PM

Truth is a tricky thing but I wish you luck in your pursuit. Have fun at you tennis match tomorrow. If you are playing, I hope you win. Goodnight.

Cindy Munford on September 21, 2011 at 10:49 PM

My my my, look at this. How could I be so cynical about Palin’s motives? Shame on me./

Buy Danish on September 21, 2011 at 10:50 PM

Buy Danish on September 21, 2011 at 10:50 PM

You could try waiting for it to happen. But then that’s no fun.

Cindy Munford on September 21, 2011 at 10:59 PM

My my my, look at this. How could I be so cynical about Palin’s motives? Shame on me./

Buy Danish on September 21, 2011 at 10:50 PM

My, my, my another example of you looking for anything to use against Palin…

I dislike her recent, underhanded tactics

Buy Danish on September 21, 2011 at 10:45 PM

You haven’t liked nor supported her, let alone recently…

Gohawgs on September 21, 2011 at 11:00 PM

Gohawgs on September 21, 2011 at 11:00 PM

For the last time I’ve told you over and over.

Cindy Munford on September 21, 2011 at 11:02 PM

I apologize, Mrs. Munford. I’ll go sit over in the corner for a bit…

Gohawgs on September 21, 2011 at 11:04 PM

Gohawgs on September 21, 2011 at 11:04 PM

Sorry, I was projecting, don’t take it personally.

Cindy Munford on September 21, 2011 at 11:06 PM

I was laughing as I typed…between sniffles

/

Gohawgs on September 21, 2011 at 11:16 PM

Gohawgs on September 21, 2011 at 11:16 PM

Have you gone to the latest thread? I was unaware that we had so many people on HotAir who are deeply in tuned with Gov. Palin that they can just feel what she is thinking. It is remarkable.

Cindy Munford on September 21, 2011 at 11:52 PM

Cindy Munford on September 21, 2011 at 11:52 PM

Just another way for “some” to do what they can to support their hoped for Palin non-candidacy…

Gohawgs on September 22, 2011 at 12:24 AM

Gohawgs on September 22, 2011 at 12:24 AM

Somehow the constant fighting over who is the most pro/anti anybody is daunting. Although in my heart I know we will pull together when we need to, sometimes I think we deserve Obama.

Cindy Munford on September 22, 2011 at 12:29 AM

I dislike her recent, underhanded tactics which are exacerbated exactly because…she’s not a declared candidate

big whatever Danish

Sonosam on September 22, 2011 at 12:58 AM

Cindy Munford on September 22, 2011 at 12:29 AM

We may be seeing what happened in the Alaskan ’10 election again. The status quo/big gov’t Murky faction against the TEA Party/small gov’t faction. Luckily, somewhat, the dem candidate that cycle is as weak as the obamanation will be come Nov ’12. Unluckily, the status quo/big govt faction may win again…

Gohawgs on September 22, 2011 at 2:07 AM

Oh my: Palin within five of Obama in new Marist poll

Ha!

ChuckTX on September 22, 2011 at 2:14 AM

Gohawgs on September 22, 2011 at 2:07 AM

I don’t see her going third party but you never know. They sure haven’t given her any reason to be loyal.

Cindy Munford on September 22, 2011 at 2:21 AM

Cindy Munford on September 22, 2011 at 2:21 AM

I don’t see a 3rd party run, she’s said so herself. As for the latter, no doubt…

Gohawgs on September 22, 2011 at 3:17 AM

My my my, look at this. How could I be so cynical about Palin’s motives? Shame on me./

Buy Danish on September 21, 2011 at 10:50 PM

You’re damning her and feel justified in being cynical about Palin’s motives because someone completely unaffiliated with Governor Palin’s team is theorizing she could run third party.

That about sum up your post?

powerpro on September 22, 2011 at 5:24 AM

I don’t see her going third party but you never know. They sure haven’t given her any reason to be loyal.
Cindy Munford on September 22, 2011 at 2:21 AM

Who’s “they”? Karl Rovvvvvvvvvvve? Please. Cry me a river.

Buy Danish on September 22, 2011 at 6:56 AM

Arggh. Hate my new computer keyboard. Didn’t finish my comment –

The tanning bed media is not run by the GOP. Joe McGinnis, Andrew Sullivan, the NYT, none of those creeps are agents for the GOP. To the extent that she has been fairly criticized for missteps (Christine O’Donnell for example)… tant pis. She is not immune from criticism and golly gee she better be prepared for it as a candidate and, if she should win the White House, as President. It comes with the territory…

But hey, she could end all this speculation today.

Buy Danish on September 22, 2011 at 7:04 AM

She is not immune from criticism and golly gee she better be prepared for it as a candidate and, if she should win the White House, as President. It comes with the territory…

But hey, she could end all this speculation today.

Buy Danish on September 22, 2011 at 7:04 AM

She’s been under constant scrutiny and criticism for years now. You think she’s not aware of this or that any Palin supporter lives under the misguided belief that officially announcing will make the usual suspects criticize her less?

And she could announce anytime she wants. Given the signals she’s been sending of late though…I anticipate it’ll be awhile longer.

And that’s fine by me.

powerpro on September 22, 2011 at 7:11 AM

powerpro on September 22, 2011 at 7:11 AM

My comment was in reference to Cindy’s use of the word “they” as in “they haven’t given her a reason to be loyal”, as if it’s the fault of the GOP that she gets criticized.

That was my point. Not that she hasn’t been subject to scrutiny.

Carry on…won’t be around today….

Buy Danish on September 22, 2011 at 7:48 AM

You’re damning her and feel justified in being cynical about Palin’s motives because someone completely unaffiliated with Governor Palin’s team is theorizing she could run third party.
That about sum up your post?
powerpro on September 22, 2011 at 5:24 AM

Ooops, missed this. I’m not “damning her” you “damn” jackass. I am cynical of her motives because of her own words and actions. If people theorize she might run third party because she is going after “GOP candidates” and playing coy games with decision dates and not demonstrating her plans with any clarity, so be it. I feel vindicated because if Hot Air is the world I am pretty much alone so it’s reassuring to see that I have company in this great big ole lonely blogosphere – even if it’s speculation from people who, unlike me, are huge fans.

Buy Danish on September 22, 2011 at 7:59 AM

Carry on…won’t be around today….

Buy Danish on September 22, 2011 at 7:48 AM

Gosh, we will try.

Cindy Munford on September 22, 2011 at 9:27 AM

Buy Danish on September 22, 2011 at 7:59 AM

Shouldn’t you actually wait to be vindicated before gloating on a theory?

Cindy Munford on September 22, 2011 at 9:30 AM

Interesting, but unscientific data point. Lou Dobbs, Fox News, has a poll on his site asking:

Do you think Governor Sarah Palin could beat President Obama in 2012?

Yes 83.01%

No 16.99%

http://www.foxbusiness.com/on-air/lou-dobbs-tonight/index.html

On the center, right side of page.

OnlyOrange on September 22, 2011 at 12:18 PM

OnlyOrange on September 22, 2011 at 12:19 PM

Ooops, missed this. I’m not “damning her” you “damn” jackass. I am cynical of her motives because of her own words and actions. If people theorize she might run third party because she is going after “GOP candidates” and playing coy games with decision dates and not demonstrating her plans with any clarity, so be it. I feel vindicated because if Hot Air is the world I am pretty much alone so it’s reassuring to see that I have company in this great big ole lonely blogosphere – even if it’s speculation from people who, unlike me, are huge fans.

Buy Danish on September 22, 2011 at 7:59 AM

So again…people are theorizing what she might do…and because you agree with them even though they support or like her and you don’t, you feel vindicated that their flawed theory justifies your cynicism?

LOL Yeah that’s not twisted or anything.

powerpro on September 22, 2011 at 12:41 PM

And by “agree with them” I mean recognize that even her allies see her strategy as being unconventional and are jumping to outrageous conclusions…

powerpro on September 22, 2011 at 12:42 PM

Sarah Palin: Why the Marist poll showing Palin within 5 points of Obama is no fluke!

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2782241/posts

technopeasant on September 22, 2011 at 1:36 PM

BD is slipping into Obsessor, lying liars lying and, our lil annual flower territory…

Gohawgs on September 22, 2011 at 2:28 PM

This thread is probably long dead, I finally have time to address some comments:

Shouldn’t you actually wait to be vindicated before gloating on a theory?
Cindy Munford on September 22, 2011 at 9:30 AM

First, I’m not “gloating”. I’m “heartened” that others are closely parsing her words and reading between the lines. Second, I said this at the Allah’s thread so while I feel “vindicated” for being furious with her, I also said this, so I’m not leaping to conclusions about her plans if that was your point:

<em>Not that there is proof that she intends to run as a third party spoiler, but the coy, self-serving, game playing has not been a figment of my imagination.
Buy Danish on September 21, 2011 at 11:01 PM

Meanwhile, I’m still waiting for an answer to this:

I don’t see her going third party but you never know. They sure haven’t given her any reason to be loyal.
Cindy Munford on September 22, 2011 at 2:21 AM

Who’s “they”? Karl Rovvvvvvvvvvve? Please. Cry me a river.
Buy Danish on September 22, 2011 at 6:56 AM

And after you said ,,,,

You and I don’t agree on this and probably on who would be the most conservative. I’ll just watch you in action from here on out.
Cindy Munford on September 21, 2011 at 7:50 PM

I asked:

Fine, but why did you say you’re going to be watching me from here on in? The topic of this thread was not, Who is the most conservative candidate?

Did you respond? I’m finding that the search function isn’t totally reliable. That statement really bothered me. Perhaps I misread you – I’d just like some clarification.

theotherone on September 21, 2011 at 3:24 PM

I’ll have to respond to you later when/if I have the time in a separate comment. I’ll only say this for now: You don’t know a thing about my past support for Palin.

Buy Danish on September 22, 2011 at 8:13 PM

Sarah Palin: Why the Marist poll showing Palin within 5 points of Obama is no fluke!

technopeasant

Pffft. She’s not even within 5 of winning the Republican nomination.

Florida Republican Presidential Primary: Perry 28, Romney 22, Palin 8

New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary: Romney 41, Perry 8, Palin 6

Michigan Republican Presidential Primary: Romney 40, Perry 17, Palin 7

South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary: Perry 31, Romney 27, Palin 6

North Carolina PPP Poll Republican Presidential Primary: Perry 33, Palin 13, Romney 10

She’s not within 5 of Obama. She cannot win. And before one of you cult members try to tell me that Perry can’t win either, don’t bother….I never said he could.

xblade on September 22, 2011 at 8:47 PM

Until you actually start talking about substantive things regarding Palin, like how her past life experiences in public office do or do not fit her for the Presidency or whether her views on crony capitalism are true or not, there’s really no reason to engage you in conversation.
theotherone on September 21, 2011 at 3:24 PM

I have been taking on substantive things: The content of her speeches, the content of her remarks to Sean Hannity, her embrace of populism, the bromides, the trite talking points, the lack of specificity, the hypocrisy, her indecisiveness, ethical conflicts, and so forth. Additionally I have criticized her extemporaneous speaking skills, her appearance, her voice – all things which you may think are superficial but which, like it or not, matter very much to voters.

It’s not my job to frame my arguments according to your desires. Every single thread about every single potential candidate contains criticism from commenters. Despite your best efforts to the contrary, Palin does not get a pass.

Buy Danish on September 23, 2011 at 9:25 AM

She is the only portential candidate out there with true Intellectual Honesty…..:-)))))) the folks are finally seeing the truth

huskerdiva on September 23, 2011 at 5:01 PM

What explains the sudden surge?

I personally blame it on the republican debates. You can clearly see that Sarah continues to inspire more than the career politicians do today, and perhaps the reason for that is people are learning to know when a person is speaking from their heart instead of from prepared remarks thanks to all of the speeches from the 0bamanation. ;o)

DannoJyd on September 23, 2011 at 9:52 PM