Obama below 50% approval in … California?

posted at 11:25 am on September 14, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

Remember when Republicans hoped that Barack Obama’s declining job approvals would help the GOP limit him to the coastal states?  According to the latest Field Poll in California and the results of the NY-09 special election, Democrats may have to hope that Obama can actually carry the coastal states:

Even in heavily Democratic California, President Barack Obama’s job approval rating has plummeted among voters, largely on his handling of the economy, according to a new Field Poll.

Though Obama is strongly favored to win California in his re-election bid next year, the poll suggests many Democrats may vote for him only begrudgingly, and it is yet another indication of weakening support nationwide.

“When you’re seeing vulnerability in a state like California, I think that really is ominous for his national standing,” Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo said.

For the first time since Obama took office in 2009, less than half of California voters – 46 percent – approve of the job he is doing, just two percentage points more than disapprove, according to the poll.

“Plummeted” is correct.  In June, his approval rating was a comfortable 54/37, with a gap of 17 points.  Obama has lost 15 in the gap in just three months.  The lowest gap in the Field series before this month was 12 points, which came last September, a few weeks before his party got buried in the Tea Party midterm avalanche.

Obama has lost ground in all subgroups in the poll, save one.  Obama gained a point among those identifying strongly with the Tea Party, going from 3% in June to 4% in this poll.  Otherwise, Obama took hits in all areas.  He did worst among Asian voters (-16 to 48/34), independents (-13, 45/43), not surprisingly in the Central Valley (-13, 35/56).  The Central Valley had much of its irrigation water cut off because the federal government intervened on behalf of the Delta smelt and turned one of the nation’s richest agricultural areas into a near-desert.

There are other warning signs in this poll, too.  His standing among Democrats dropped by 10 points, most likely on Obama’s activist-base Left.  He now polls significantly under water with men, 42/48, having been up 52/38 in June.  Obama still performs solidly among voters under 40, but now trails with all age demographics 40 and older.  Three months ago he commanded majorities in all age demographics.

Does this show that Obama could lose California in 2012?  It’s still unlikely.  Democrats control the state legislature and executive, and Obama scores majorities in the two major population centers of Los Angeles and San Francisco — although lower majorities at the beginning of the summer.  However, Democrats and the Obama campaign can no longer take the state for granted, using it only as an ATM to fund campaigns in other states.  They will have to spend money, probably a lot of it, to keep California blue in 2012.  That means that the state won’t be much of a net profit center for Obama 2012, and that will have a big impact in other areas of the country.  If they have the same problem in New York, and the NY-09 results appear to indicate that, the middle of the country should open wide for the GOP nominee, and Republicans could be poised to score big gains in the Senate and House races in 2012 as well.

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..you are not. You are an absolute joy to read!

The War Planner on September 14, 2011 at 12:27 PM

Shhh! Don’t say that around idesign or promachus. LoL
Thank you.
-Barb
*blushes*

annoyinglittletwerp on September 14, 2011 at 12:30 PM

By the way, been gone a few days and Rasmussen Daily Presidential tracking poll has Obama at -17. Said he got a bounce from his speech last week. Really? Hard for me to believe…

sandee on September 14, 2011 at 11:32 AM

That index is all over the map.

Here is the jobs bill poll released today:

38% Approve.

Money quote: Most voters consistently believe that cutting government spending is good for the economy. just 24% of voters believe increased government spending is more likely to create new jobs than reducing government regulations on business. Sixty-two percent (62%) think reduced regulation is a more likely job creator.

angryed on September 14, 2011 at 12:31 PM

“Terrible,” Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.) told POLITICO when asked about the president’s ideas for how to pay for the $450 billion price tag. “We shouldn’t increase taxes on ordinary income. … There are other ways to get there.”

“That offset is not going to fly, and he should know that,” said Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu from the energy-producing Louisiana, referring to Obama’s elimination of oil and gas subsidies. “Maybe it’s just for his election, which I hope isn’t the case.”

“I think the best jobs bill that can be passed is a comprehensive long-term deficit-reduction plan,” said Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.), discussing proposals to slash the debt by $4 trillion by overhauling entitlement programs and raising revenue through tax reforms. “That’s better than everything else the president is talking about — combined.”

Should we report them? Has somebody already done so?

either orr on September 14, 2011 at 12:31 PM

my tortie says: Koy?
Yummy!

annoyinglittletwerp on September 14, 2011 at 12:21 PM

lol

Your tortie better say yummy! Coy are eeeeeexpensive!

csdeven on September 14, 2011 at 12:32 PM

We might have to run Bachmann just to make it a contest . . .

When Ron Paul is competitive with BHO in national polls, you know the Democrats’ crazy train is on high speed rails . . .

Adjoran on September 14, 2011 at 12:34 PM

Though Obama is strongly favored to win California in his re-election bid next year, the poll suggests many Democrats may vote for him only begrudgingly, and it is yet another indication of weakening support nationwide.

They’re unhappy with how things are going, so they’ll vote for it again, in hopes that things will be different in the next term? Wow!!! If public education sucks across this nation, it must REALLY suck in California.

Talk about stuck on stupid!!!

capejasmine on September 14, 2011 at 12:35 PM

What are the odds that he loses all 57 states if this continues?

right2bright on September 14, 2011 at 11:35 AM

Not gonna happen R2, everyone knows he’s a lock in all the higher numbered states…

JusDreamin on September 14, 2011 at 12:36 PM

Heh! It could be hilarious if the CA Dems ramrod through the bill that will assign all CA electoral votes to the candidate winning the most individual votes nationally. Heads in Sacto would explode on election eve in November 2012 as CA’s votes are assigned to the Republican candidate. Can’t wait! LOL!

in_awe on September 14, 2011 at 12:40 PM

Being a Californian I can tell you that I’m a sheep. And so is everyone else here. Obama’s approval numbers here will eventually find equilibrium with the national average, it’s just that it takes a while for narratives to trickle-down from universities heads and high school teachers.

As more educators and union leaders in California gradually become aware that Obama is no longer popular, their disappointment becomes evident to other less informed people, eventually trickling down to the 80% that lack the capacity for independent thought.

We’re teetering on the edge here. I believe that soon enough it will be cool to mock Obama publicly, and that’s when the 80% will assimilate.

;)

hisfrogness on September 14, 2011 at 12:40 PM

Obama will respond to this bad news by being even angrier and more petulant in his speeches.

John the Libertarian on September 14, 2011 at 12:41 PM

Even in heavily Democratic California, President Barack Obama’s job approval rating has plummeted among voters, largely on his handling of the economy, according to a new Field Poll.

Even starry eyed leftist/progs will get irritated and concerned when the world around them is coming unglued. My take is by the time Nov `12 rolls around Barry`ll be able to count on the 20-30% of die hards/idiots and colorblinded.

NY Conservative on September 14, 2011 at 12:44 PM

The GOP has a shot in the peninsula, south of San Francisco, and (I know this sounds nuts) even in parts of San Francisco itself. The city has a surprising libertarian bent and many neighborhoods are hard to categorize. No one should call San Francisco a monolithically Democrat zone, in my opinion. A concentration on fiscal sanity will play very well in California as a whole (the land of the terminally boned, as AoSHQ likes to say), and in the bay area especially.

MTF on September 14, 2011 at 12:02 PM

My wife and I were in the city several months – got lost and had to ask a horse mounted police officer for directions. In the middle of the exchange, a random moron started yelling at the officer that our trucks tailgate was covered with “Conservative” bumper stickers and that we should be expelled from the city (not kidding here folks). The officer begrudgingly offered to the moron that even conservatives were allowed to be in the city. It was clear to us that the officer sympathized with the moron’s point of view – and despite his best judgment, was forced to allow us access to the expertise of a civil servant.

After living here for 46 years, I am convinced that the state is heading for a Greece/London type of showdown when the entitlement crowd is no longer able to purchase iPhones and XBox 360s with welfare dollars. When 67% of the “Poverty Class” has cable television, it isn’t going to take much to get the freeloaders to take to the streets.

By this time next year, we’ll be in PA and Kalifornication can kiss my six figure income based tax receipts goodbye.

oldfiveanddimer on September 14, 2011 at 1:02 PM

It’s simply. You can’t claim this is the worse economic climate for jobs since the Great Depression and then tell everyone you’ll be submitting your IDEAS for a possible future jobs plan AFTER a 10 day vacation. Leaders lead, losers whine. The Martha’s Vineyard vacation/jobs bill mess was the “attack rabbit” of this presidency.

Fred 2 on September 14, 2011 at 1:34 PM

Being a Californian I can tell you that I’m a sheep. And so is everyone else here. Obama’s approval numbers here will eventually find equilibrium with the national average, it’s just that it takes a while for narratives to trickle-down from universities heads and high school teachers.

As more educators and union leaders in California gradually become aware that Obama is no longer popular, their disappointment becomes evident to other less informed people, eventually trickling down to the 80% that lack the capacity for independent thought.

We’re teetering on the edge here. I believe that soon enough it will be cool to mock Obama publicly, and that’s when the 80% will assimilate.

;)

hisfrogness on September 14, 2011 at 12:40 PM

I’m also a Californian, and I find your optimism amusing. We are teetering on the edge, but our union overlords are perfectly capable of using their legislators to keep us in line. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dems gain a 2/3 majority in the next election (with help of redistricting) and pass massive tax increases, including taking an axe to Prop 13. 5-10 years from now the house of cards may collapse, or we may be saved by a national economic rebound when Obama is ousted, but the sheeple here will never blame their own choices.

peski on September 14, 2011 at 1:40 PM

Does this show that Obama could lose California in 2012?

This has to be some sort of fake-out campaign tactical attempt. California is way too far Left to ever not vote for the Democrat in any election; the place could burn down entirely, there could be no more water there, dogs and cats could take over the freeways, avocados would turn to bitter fruit, the wind would stop blowing entirely and the Pacific Ocean would pack it up and head for other places and California Liberals would still vote for any Democrat you placed before them unless they were given another Democrat as an option. Then they’d still vote for the Democrat.

It’s a state that is just too far gone Left (mostly always in the urban areas) to ever vote otherwise.

I sense some sort of fake-out effort underway by the Obama “re-election campaign” (so-called) to, perhaps, try to garner increased sympathy for Poor Baby Barack, the Needy One. Just enough hapless Liberals in CA to fall for this.

Lourdes on September 14, 2011 at 2:02 PM

Just remember this as we head toward November 2012:

Obama NEEDS the sympathy votes. He’s SEEKING the sympathy votes. Criticism of him gets just enough defensive sympathy responses to throw him those predictable sympathy voters.

Just last week, amidst one of those Q&A’s on FOX with random voters, when asked who voted for Obama in the last election, about a third of the hands went up and then they were asked if they’d vote for him again and only two hands went up (both were females) and one of those said, with head lowered, voice somber, low, soft voice, “he just isn’t being given any support, what he needs is our support, we have to support him, then things will get better…”

So THAT is the vote that Obama/the DNC is relying on. Claiming Obama is not doing well in high-Democrat majority states/areas is an attempt (I am nearly sure) to generate increased “sympathy responses” for Obama, to depict him as the Poor Baby Barack, the Needy One.

Never underestimate the sympathy voters’ ability to waste their vote to soothe their need to participate in Drama.

Lourdes on September 14, 2011 at 2:08 PM

If Romney wins the nomination, he will compete in California. I like all of the other candidates, but only Romney can win in California. And if we win California, its all over for the big dog…

RedSoxNation on September 14, 2011 at 2:27 PM

California just wants the GOP to waste millions more in their overpriced media market. Don’t fall for it Republicans, you can win this and completely ignore California – only go there for fundraising.

Daemonocracy on September 14, 2011 at 2:34 PM

If only this tanking approval can resonate down-ticket to the state and local level, so that Cali has a fighting chance to rejoin modern civilization.

curved space on September 14, 2011 at 2:45 PM

California just wants the GOP to waste millions more in their overpriced media market. Don’t fall for it Republicans, you can win this and completely ignore California – only go there for fundraising.

Daemonocracy on September 14, 2011 at 2:34 PM

Yes!

SwabJockey on September 14, 2011 at 2:48 PM

All my California friends are mad at Obama for not being liberal enough. That in no way implies that they would ever vote Republican. Green Party maybe.

bobthepeeler on September 14, 2011 at 4:59 PM

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