PPP poll in NY-09 shows Turner leading by 6

posted at 12:45 pm on September 12, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

Democratic pollster PPP delivered a heaping helping of bad news to Democrats last night from their latest polling in the special election contest that will fill the unserved term of disgraced former Congressman Anthony Weiner.  In a district where Democrats enjoy a distinct registration advantage and have held this seat since Warren Harding was President, Republican Bob Turner leads Democrat David Weprin by six points.  But losing the seat isn’t really the big problem for Democrats, PPP explains, and it’s not just this district that’s the problem:

Turner’s winning in a heavily Democratic district for two reasons: a huge lead with independents and a large amount of crossover support.  He’s ahead by 32 points at 58-26 with voters unaffiliated with either major party.  And he’s winning 29% of the Democratic vote, holding Weprin under 60% with voters of his own party, while losing just 10% of Republican partisans.

If Turner wins on Tuesday it will be largely due to the incredible unpopularity of Barack Obama dragging his party down in the district.  Obama won 55% there in 2008 but now has a staggeringly bad 31% approval rating, with 56% of voters disapproving of him.  It’s a given that Republicans don’t like him but more shocking are his 16% approval rating with independents and the fact that he’s below 50% even with Democrats at 46% approving and 38% disapproving. Obama trails Mitt Romney 46-42 in a hypothetical match up in the district and leads Rick Perry only 44-43.

If Weprin loses, it won’t be because he’s been a poor candidate, PPP says:

Weprin has been much maligned as a candidate but he actually has positive favorability numbers too with 39% of voters rating him positively and 36% negatively.  Over the last few years there have been very few races we polled where a candidate had a postive net favorability spread and still lost.  If Obama’s approval in the district was even 40% Weprin would almost definitely be headed to Congress. He’s getting dragged down by something bigger than himself.

I’ll say.  The Cook index rates this district rated as a D+5, but Weiner won it handily in 2010, 61/39.  PPP’s sample in this poll has a D/R/I of 59/25, which seems to be undersampling Republicans by quite a wide margin.  That could explain PPP’s favorability ratings; a Siena poll last week had Weprin at a flat 41/41 favorability.  However, Siena’s sample gave Democrats an even wider advantage, 58/18.

Either way, running in statistical dead heats with Rick Perry and Mitt Romney in NY-09 is a big sign of trouble for Obama.  Even more so is the finding that a district with such a large Democratic advantage would slightly prefer a Republican Congress, 45/44, and have slightly more confidence in Congressional Republicans than Obama on leading America in the right direction, 44/42.  Bear in mind that this same sample gave Congressional Republicans a 31/50 approval rating in the question directly preceding the questions about leadership and Congressional control.

PPP concludes that Obama has lost independents, and a significant number of Democrats as well — all of whom will vote with the GOP tomorrow:

One final note on the poll and what perhaps should concern Democrats most of all. 55% of voters in the district report having voted for Obama in 2008, which is the actual percentage of the vote he got in the district.  Last year a lot of the races Democrats lost were because their voters didn’t show up and the electorate was far more conservative than for a Presidential year.  When you lose that way you can say, well, our voters will come back out in 2012 and we’ll be fine.  But there is no enthusiasm gap here.  Obama voters are showing up in the same numbers they did in 2008.  But only 65% of them are voting Democratic.  That’s a really big cause for concern.

In that case, a big  GOTV effort tomorrow won’t help, since it’s about a third as likely to make the situation for Weprin worse than it is better.  And if Democrats can’t find a way to turn this around in the next few months, they can expect Turner to hold this seat in a regular election — and for a lot of Democratic incumbents to join the ranks of the unemployed.

National Journal reports that Democrats are beginning to panic at the thought of losing this seat and another in Nevada tomorrow:

Democrats are facing the very real possibility that a pair of special elections on Tuesday will shake the foundations of the 2012 political landscape. The party is at serious risk of losing a House race in New York City that few thought would be close, and campaign officials are already close to writing off a Nevada House race they had once hoped to contest.

If Republicans win both contests, it would raise fresh concerns about President Obama’s drag on down-ballot Democrats and the party’s ability to keep its Senate majority. The losses would also raise questions about whether the party can gain the 24 seats it needs to regain the House. …

In the Silver State, the situation isn’t as ominous, but Democrats have all but written off contesting a Republican-leaning seat in rural Nevada that once seemed squarely in play weeks ago. The Democratic nominee is state Treasurer Kate Marshall, and Democrats had touted her as a leading recruit. She got off to a fast fundraising start, and hammered the Republican nominee, Mark Amodei, for supporting entitlement cuts.

I’m not sure that two Republican wins tomorrow will shake any foundations.  They would destroy the illusions under which Democrats have labored that (a) 2010 was a fluke, and (b) Obama is so personally likeable that he has Reagan-like Teflon.  Pay special attention to the Nevada contest, too, because Democrats there have begun to worry about their presumed nominee for the 2012 Senate race in the state.

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I don’t believe it. They are just trying to whip up the base.

faraway on September 12, 2011 at 12:48 PM

Faster!

honsy on September 12, 2011 at 12:49 PM

So. Uh. Anyone have spare pants?

mythicknight on September 12, 2011 at 12:50 PM

NYT headline: “Racism On the Rise In NY-9, Signals a Broader Troubling Trend Across America”.

Bishop on September 12, 2011 at 12:52 PM

Pay special attention to the Nevada contest, too, because Democrats there have begun to worry about their presumed nominee for the 2012 Senate race in the state.

You mean they would primary Dingy Harry???

Damn, I need to stock up on popcorn.

BacaDog on September 12, 2011 at 12:53 PM

“In a district where Democrats enjoy a distinct registration advantage..”

..it’s the JOOOOOOOOOOOOZ!

The War Planner on September 12, 2011 at 12:54 PM

BacaDog on September 12, 2011 at 12:53 PM

Oops. Dingy’s not up again till 16′. Had me excited there for a minute.

BacaDog on September 12, 2011 at 12:55 PM

I believe these races are part of the reason that the Republican response to Obama’s speech to the Joint Session has been so muted. If/When the Pubs take both races, they can call the victories a referendum on O’s leadership on the economy. Yes, it’s spin, but it’s not something totally out of left field, the charge will have merit. The Republicans can then say ‘why should Congress support this deficit-busting jobs bill when even Democrats don’t support it?’ Something like that. We’ll see.

joejm65 on September 12, 2011 at 12:55 PM

If this is true, it makes one wonder how Weiner was elected all these years. Perhaps some election box chicanery.

csdeven on September 12, 2011 at 12:55 PM

You mean they would primary Dingy Harry???

Damn, I need to stock up on popcorn.

BacaDog on September 12, 2011 at 12:53 PM

Wrong seat. Unfortunatly we are stuck with harry red for another 4 years.

VegasRick on September 12, 2011 at 12:56 PM

I attribute this condition to two things:

1. Weprin’s 4 trillion dollar US debt blunder. People can’t in good conscience vote for someone that is portrayed as incompetent.

2. New York Jews; I think these are the people Obama’s losing. They’ve been biting their lips and voting D even though D’s are in many ways antithetical to their values. They’re finally turning on him.

I don’t know what the cross-tabs are in respect to religious affiliation but I’d bet the Jewish vote is driving a lot of the 38% Democratic support for Turner.

hisfrogness on September 12, 2011 at 12:56 PM

AP, prepare to deploy the Humpbot!

fusionaddict on September 12, 2011 at 12:56 PM

Democrats are going nonstop with the “tea party extremist” tag on Turner and it’s blowing up in the faces.

JammieWearingFool on September 12, 2011 at 12:57 PM

In other words:

..it’s the JOOOOOOOOOOOOZ!

The War Planner on September 12, 2011 at 12:54 PM

hisfrogness on September 12, 2011 at 12:57 PM

If Turner wins, the NY Times will bury the story in its “Life” section.

buzdburd on September 12, 2011 at 12:58 PM

If Turner wins by 5% or more, obama is in deep trouble in NY. he has already lost upstate NY, and now he is beginning to lose the city.

ConservativePartyNow on September 12, 2011 at 12:59 PM

I dont trust PPP anymore.

dogsoldier on September 12, 2011 at 1:00 PM

This w/b a bigger political earthquake than S. Brown winning in Mass.

Don’t celebrate, yet, but on Tuesday night, if this happens, smile at Tomasky, E.J. Dionee, and Maureen Dowd, Kathleen Parker too.

Schadenfreude on September 12, 2011 at 1:02 PM

skeptical until the last vote counted

cmsinaz on September 12, 2011 at 1:03 PM

OT: obama just lost the election. Another bold-faced lie he told. The anti-war crowd will be furious

ConservativePartyNow on September 12, 2011 at 1:02 PM

hello

wheres the authorization?????

cmsinaz on September 12, 2011 at 1:05 PM

If this goes down (forget the polls, big if) the Donks are gonna go into “wounded, rabid wolverine” mode from now until next November.

“Ugly” won’t do it justice.

Bruno Strozek on September 12, 2011 at 1:05 PM

And if Democrats can’t find a way to turn this around in the next few months, they can expect Turner to hold this seat in a regular election — and for a lot of Democratic incumbents to join the ranks of the unemployed.

Actually, Ed, the word on the street is that the Weiner seat, especially if Turner wins it, is probably going to be on the chopping block since NY loses two seats.

Red Cloud on September 12, 2011 at 1:06 PM

Breaking News: No, make that “record-breaking news”! President Obama sends actual written documents, (of the American Jobs Act), to Congress for consideration.

Re-Breaking News! Obama’s budget director says the Obama’s Jobs Act to be paid for with less interest deductions—-translation: raising taxes of everyone!

Rovin on September 12, 2011 at 1:08 PM

If Turner wins by 5% or more, obama is in deep trouble in NY. he has already lost upstate NY, and now he is beginning to lose the city.

ConservativePartyNow on September 12, 2011 at 12:59 PM

He’ll never lose the city. Too many of those low-income wage earners there who don’t pay any taxes. And mobsters.

UltimateBob on September 12, 2011 at 1:08 PM

495 days of President Lame Duck.

The light at the end of the tunnel can be seen.

PappyD61 on September 12, 2011 at 1:09 PM

I always see the word “disgraced” before Anthony Weiner’s name. Did he ever have any?

RDE2010 on September 12, 2011 at 1:10 PM

495 days of President Lame Duck.

The light at the end of the tunnel can be seen.

PappyD61 on September 12, 2011 at 1:09 PM

Wake me up when we get to 200′sville.

RDE2010 on September 12, 2011 at 1:11 PM

PPP: Hoffman by a landslide in NY-23!

lorien1973 on September 12, 2011 at 1:11 PM

This w/b a bigger political earthquake than S. Brown winning in Mass.

Don’t celebrate, yet, but on Tuesday night, if this happens, smile at Tomasky, E.J. Dionee, and Maureen Dowd, Kathleen Parker too.

Schadenfreude on September 12, 2011 at 1:02 PM

We already have a trend, however tomorrow goes. The dems will call it a huge victory if they win, but we will all know the expense they incurred to pull it out. A GOP win there will be huge, but since its been a dem seat for some time a win for them is just hanging on to the status quo by the skins of their chinny chin chins.

dogsoldier on September 12, 2011 at 1:11 PM

lorien1973 on September 12, 2011 at 1:11 PM

‘zactly!

dogsoldier on September 12, 2011 at 1:12 PM

You know, PPP is usually suspect. Until right before an election, that is. They have to keep their “record” accurate. So if the day before the election PPP shows the republican winning by 6, that’s probably pretty reliable. They don’t want to become the DailyKos poll liberal wet dream, after all.

But if Obama is this far under water (and I suspect this poll is somewhat correct on the reasons; I also suspect that this refreshing moment of honesty will vanish on Wednesday) then he’s toast, and we should look for the exceedingly delicate attempts to push Obama off the cliff by the rats.

Vanceone on September 12, 2011 at 1:13 PM

New York still has KING ANDREW II (the Cuomo Dynasty).

Until they get rid of him and his “FOUR FREEDOMS” goal.

http://ipbiz.blogspot.com/2011/09/cbs-with-scott-pelley-covered-911.html

PappyD61 on September 12, 2011 at 1:16 PM

When did Weiner become a vampire?

forest on September 12, 2011 at 1:17 PM

The light at the end of the tunnel can be seen.

PappyD61 on September 12, 2011 at 1:09 PM

The light might be an on-coming locomotive.

Don’t get complacent. The day to really celebrate is on Jan. 20th, 2013. Until then, all senses on the alert!

Schadenfreude on September 12, 2011 at 1:20 PM

When did Weiner become a vampire?

forest on September 12, 2011 at 1:17 PM

Well, he sucks. That’s one indicator.

UltimateBob on September 12, 2011 at 1:25 PM

OT: obama just lost the election. Another bold-faced lie he told. The anti-war crowd will be furious

ConservativePartyNow on September 12, 2011 at 1:02 PM

Really? This is what you are going to make a big deal about? With all of the things that we can hammer Obama about, this is pretty petty. Obama said he would not put US combat troops on the ground in Libya. Four guys assigned to the Embassy to sweep for booby-traps are not ground troops.

If we want to play petty games with semantics, then technically Obama did not put any boots on the ground. The US Embassy is sovereign US soil and therefore, not in Libya.

Are we going to call out Obama’s BIG LIE when embassy personnel return including the Marine Guard Detachment that is assigned to protect the embassy?

Let’s be serious and keep our eye on the prize and go after Obama for the real serious derilect of duty of turning this country into a third world socialist nation.

DoS_Conservative on September 12, 2011 at 1:28 PM

Add 5% to the Dems for fraud. It’s a tie.

angryed on September 12, 2011 at 1:36 PM

Here is a link to Republican Candidate Bob Turner’s campaign website:

http://www.bobturnerforcongress.com/Home.aspx

Take a look to see how well Bob Turner is doing on collecting endorsements from big name New Yorkers.

If you know anybody in New York’s 9th Congressional district, give them a call to make sure they remember to vote for Bob Turner in tomorrow’s special election (September 13).

Just imagine how angry Nancy Pelosi will be if the Democrats lose this congressional seat because little Anthony just had to show his weiner to the world! That alone is a big motivation to help Bob Turner win this special election!

wren on September 12, 2011 at 1:38 PM

DoS_Conservative on September 12, 2011 at 1:28 PM

You attack EVERYTHING. Big, small, important, unimportant. Doesn’t matter. You attack. No mercy. Take no prisoners. They bring a knife, you bring a B-52 bomber.

That’s how you win elections. The alternative is John McCain’s strategy of 2008.

angryed on September 12, 2011 at 1:39 PM

You know, PPP is usually suspect. Until right before an election, that is. They have to keep their “record” accurate. So if the day before the election PPP shows the republican winning by 6, that’s probably pretty reliable. They don’t want to become the DailyKos poll liberal wet dream, after all.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2011/house/ny/new_york_9th_district_special_election_turner_vs_weprin-2863.html

I don’t think PPP is “suspect” in THIS case. RealClearPolitics has three recent polls on this election:

PPP: Turner 47 / Weprin 41 Turner +6
Siena: Turner 50 / Weprin 44 Turner +6
Magellan: Turner 45 / Weprin 40 Turner +5

One poll can be an outlier, but three polls with margins within 1 point of each other should probably predict the actual result.

Steve Z on September 12, 2011 at 1:46 PM

DoS_Conservative on September 12, 2011 at 1:28 PM

obama promised that not one US troop would go to Libya. he lied. plain and simple

ConservativePartyNow on September 12, 2011 at 1:55 PM

Barry is going no where but down. If he was “The Smartest Man in the World”, he’d reserve that moving van now and get in line ahead of all the other Democrats who will be looking at the “funemployment” line.

GarandFan on September 12, 2011 at 2:01 PM

Both PPP and Siena are suspect. Jews and voters over 45 are overrepresented. I strongly doubt that Jews of voting age exceed 20% of the district vote.There is a large immigrant Jewish community in Forest Hills, many of whom have never registered to vote.

In the case of PPP, polling was done by robocall, which would exclude
many young voters.

While Turner will fare better than in the last election against Weiner, victory is not assured.

The Unions and local clubs will be transporting the senior citizens to the polls.

Please urge all of your friends in the district to vote.

bigben on September 12, 2011 at 4:33 PM

I don’t believe it.

That being said, I’d LOVE to be wrong in this case.

runawayyyy on September 12, 2011 at 4:44 PM

OT: obama just lost the election. Another bold-faced lie he told. The anti-war crowd will be furious

ConservativePartyNow on September 12, 2011 at 1:02 PM

hello

wheres the authorization?????

cmsinaz on September 12, 2011 at 1:05 PM

None required, and this is a non-story. U.S. Military members are present at pretty much all U.S. Embassies around the globe. They are not technically “boots on the ground” in Libya, because the embassy is U.S. Sovereign soil abroad. Bolton has it right, as usual.

Freelancer on September 12, 2011 at 8:26 PM

The unfortunate consequence of the Obomba presidency is that he has virtually destroyed the chances of all black presidental candidates in the next few election cycles. It’s a fact that his core support, other than black folks themseves, were racial guilt feeling Independants and Republicans that were po’d by GWB actions in the wane of his presidency.
You don’t have that case, anymore! This clown has set about destroying this country and even now some of his staunchest supporting blacks are calling out for his head. The sad part is, there are well qualified blacks out there, who would make decent presidents, e.g. Herman Cain. But after this debacle, most all will take a pass at trying another black, until the stench clears the air, and that could take a good while.

gunter on September 13, 2011 at 11:06 AM