Siena poll shows Dem down by 6 for Weiner’s House seat

posted at 10:45 am on September 9, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

Just remember that NY-09, which sent Anthony Weiner to the House seven times in a row.  It has a Cook index of D+5, a significant registration advantage for Democrats.  This district voted for Barack Obama 55/44 in 2008.  And yet, with just four days to go before a special election to replace the disgraced Weiner, Siena’s new survey of 886 likely voters show the Democratic nominee David Weprin six points behind the man who couldn’t come within 20 points of Weiner in a massive Tea Party midterm:

Heading into the final days of the special election for New York’s 9th Congressional District seat, Republican Robert Turner has taken a 50-44 percent lead over Democrat David Weprin, according to a Siena (College) Research Institute poll of likely 9th CD voters released today.  In Siena College’s previous poll on August 10th Weprin had led Turner 48-42 percent.

Turner is viewed favorably by 48 percent of likely voters and unfavorably by 34 percent, while Weprin has a 41-41 percent favorability rating. By a 43-32 percent margin, likely voters say Turner is running the more positive campaign, and by a similar 39-30 percent margin, they say Weprin’s is the more negative campaign.

That’s actually a bit surprising, too.  Turner’s obvious strategy was to turn the race into a referendum on Obama, which entails plenty of negative campaigning.  Perhaps voters simply don’t perceive it that way since they seem to think that Weprin isn’t too bright.  A surprising 32% of Democrats plan on voting for Turner on Tuesday. Ninety-six percent say that there is no chance or is unlikely that they will change their mind before Tuesday.  But it may not be Weprin’s negative favorability that is the problem for Democrats.

Recall that Obama won this district by eleven points in 2008.  What do voters think of him now?  Siena’s crosstabs show Obama’s approval at 43/54 in this Democratic district in New York City.  Among Democrats, he only has a 59/38 approval rating, hardly a strong vote of confidence in the party leader.  Independents in the district give him an abysmal 29/68 job approval rating, and he has majority-disapproval ratings among all gender, age, religion, and income categories.  He’s even underwater among union households, 46/52.

If Turner pulls off the upset on Tuesday, Democrats will find a better candidate for the 2012 election to run against Turner than the hapless Weprin, who has a terrible record in elections anyway.  But if Obama is at the top of that ticket, Turner has a pretty good shot at holding the seat if these approval numbers stay the same.

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Is the wave continuing?

Remember “Teddy Kennedy’s Seat?”

dogsoldier on September 9, 2011 at 10:49 AM

DARE TO DREAM!

And keep pouring money into NYC, Dems. Just like Wisconsin. Drain those coffers.

If NY is a battleground for the Dems, that means OH, NV, FL and VA are simply being conceded.

Paint the map red.

Washington Nearsider on September 9, 2011 at 10:53 AM

Nice slap in the face after last nights big speech…

PatriotRider on September 9, 2011 at 10:54 AM

I sure hope that this continues and that Turner wins! Did bho give weprin a shout out for him to be going down in the polls?
L

letget on September 9, 2011 at 10:55 AM

Washington Nearsider on September 9, 2011 at 10:53 AM

Fight them on THEIR terf!

thebrokenrattle on September 9, 2011 at 10:55 AM

Obama, the new anchor man.

All Aboard.

fogw on September 9, 2011 at 10:56 AM

Dave shouldn’t have danced at that rally. This is one of those “I’ll believe it when I see it” deals. I can’t believe that Weiner’s seat will go to a Republican.

Cindy Munford on September 9, 2011 at 10:57 AM

A referandum on Barry in NYC and he’s losing. I like it. If Turner wins, I hope Tapper asks Carney about it.

a capella on September 9, 2011 at 10:57 AM

Great news, even if Turner just becaomes another Charles Djou or Joseph Cao and gets beaten down the road. It says something that New Yorkers (at least some of them) have turned against The One.

Pope Linus on September 9, 2011 at 10:57 AM

If Turner pulls off the upset on Tuesday, Democrats will find a better candidate for the 2012 election to run against Turner than the hapless Weprin, who has a terrible record in elections anyway.

If the district survives re-districting.

CDeb on September 9, 2011 at 10:57 AM

I think this is a referendum on Weiner.

matthew26 on September 9, 2011 at 10:58 AM

I hope Tapper asks Carney about it. a capella on September 9, 2011 at 10:57 AM

“Did we lose that seat? I’m not aware of the particulars, I’ll have to get back to you on that,” -Jay Carney.

Akzed on September 9, 2011 at 10:59 AM

The media is quietly at work creating two templates:

If Democrat David Weprin wins it’ll be a grand reaffirmation that the glorious Obama magic has returned and that the evil terrorist hobbit tea party racists have been ‘taken out’.

If Republican Robert Turner wins it’ll rate a two line mention on page A20.

Chip on September 9, 2011 at 10:59 AM

If NY is a battleground for the Dems, that means OH, NV, FL and VA are simply being conceded.

Paint the map red.

Washington Nearsider on September 9, 2011 at 10:53 AM

If NY is in play, the GOP could nominate Charlie Sheen and win

ConservativePartyNow on September 9, 2011 at 11:02 AM

My friend in queens just texted me

“I’m gonna have a republican congressman before you”

blatantblue on September 9, 2011 at 11:03 AM

If Turner pulls off the upset on Tuesday, Democrats will find a better candidate for the 2012 election to run against Turner..declare it not a big deal…you know..
……….just like Wisconsin after they poured tens of millions of dollars into it.

…..”Resist we much”

Baxter Greene on September 9, 2011 at 11:06 AM

I think the world has gone crazy! Or at least New York!

Did the NYT sorta endorse SARAH PALIN????? Works for me!

http://themorningspew.com/2011/09/09/pigs-fly-nyt-tells-truth-about-sarah-palin-she-is-electable/

bloggless on September 9, 2011 at 11:08 AM

If you look at a map of NY 9, you will see that it includes much of what used to be called the Archie Bunker district.The ethnic middle class areas of Glendale, Ridgewood, Middle Village. Places where Catholic schools still have large enrollments and small businesspeople are in large supply among the residents. They’re not the majority, but Werpin dissed them by bailing on the Juniper Valley Assoc debate and they’re likely to come out in large numbers. add the Forest Hills and Kew Gardens Jews who see Obama abandoning Israel and an upset may be in the offing.Though I still think that the traditionally Democrat Jewish voter will come home on Tuesday.

xkaydet65 on September 9, 2011 at 11:10 AM

I think this is a referendum on Weiner.

matthew26 on September 9, 2011 at 10:58 AM

Then how do you explain Obama’s 45/54 favorability in the District? Is Obama’s underwater favorability rating also a referendum on Weiner?

steebo77 on September 9, 2011 at 11:18 AM

Not.Getting.My.Hopes.Up.

New York has burned us twice already.

SouthernGent on September 9, 2011 at 11:18 AM

Color me skeptical….that other special ny election looked good for the gop before the vote and the dem still won there

cmsinaz on September 9, 2011 at 11:20 AM

If they lose the Weiner seat after the Kennedy seat and the others, they will still point to Christine O’Donnell and Harry Reid as proof that they are still in control, lol.

jeffn21 on September 9, 2011 at 11:20 AM

I refuse to leash my inner Eeyore…

JohnGalt23 on September 9, 2011 at 11:23 AM

New York today……California tomorrow! Paint it all RED!

Rovin on September 9, 2011 at 11:25 AM

New York is losing two seats due to redistricting. I would not be surprised if this one goes bye bye!

Ricki on September 9, 2011 at 11:27 AM

Turner’s obvious strategy was to turn the race into a referendum on Obama, which entails plenty of negative campaigning.

I dunno, as campaigns go, this has not been all that negative. Turner is courting Jewish voters and has made a big deal of Weprin’s support of the Ground Zero Mosque.

Buy Danish on September 9, 2011 at 11:27 AM

The American born Ashkenazi Liberal Jews are now a minority in the Forest Hills/Kew Gardens area. Most of the Jews in these neighborhoods are from the USSR, mainly Uzbekistan and Georgia. They’re very Conservative (and the raven haired girls are HAWT, though they marry very young, and only amongst each other).

ardenenoch on September 9, 2011 at 11:29 AM

O/T:

No political games right Obama? Over 1400 homes in Texas have burned to the ground and Obama has yet to declare this a federal disaster, which would open up funds for these victims. But it’s NOT POLITICAL.

Rovin on September 9, 2011 at 11:30 AM

New York is losing two seats due to redistricting. I would not be surprised if this one goes bye bye!

Ricki on September 9, 2011 at 11:27 AM

That seems to be why they recruited Weprin. I suspect if Turner wins, the Hochul seat is suddenly on the cutting board too, and frankly party hacks might agree.

amazingmets on September 9, 2011 at 11:30 AM

bloggless on September 9, 2011 at 11:08 AM

Nice job linking that off-topic story here. The writer loves her because her anti-corporate populism appeal to liberals. Woo Hoo, what an endorsement./

Buy Danish on September 9, 2011 at 11:37 AM

@Buy Danish:

Your welcome!

bloggless on September 9, 2011 at 11:42 AM

Certainly hope this turns out. 6 points is just about outside the margin of fraud we can expect from the Democrats, so this might actually turn into a win. IIRC, the other two NY elections were much closer, so they didn’t get outside the margin of fraud.

AZfederalist on September 9, 2011 at 11:43 AM

In order to guarantee a Republican victory, O’Bambi should fly in and campaign for the DemoRat. :)

honsy on September 9, 2011 at 11:50 AM

bloggless on September 9, 2011 at 11:42 AM

I agree with BD, nice job. We should turn this into a Sarah Palin thread.

Strangely, she was saying things that liberals might like, if not for Ms. Palin’s having said them.

mike_NC9 on September 9, 2011 at 12:03 PM

BOOM.

nickj116 on September 9, 2011 at 12:04 PM

A guy from PPP (Yeah, I know they suck…) has tweeted about the polling they’re doing on this race.

Tweet link

My pretty straight forward take on the first night of our NY-9 poll: Dems in BIG trouble. It deserves the caps.

No wonder Pelosi et all are throwing so much money at this race.

teke184 on September 9, 2011 at 12:07 PM

If Turner pulls off the upset on Tuesday, Democrats will find a better candidate for the 2012 election to run against Turner than the hapless Weprin, who has a terrible record in elections anyway. But if Obama is at the top of that ticket, Turner has a pretty good shot at holding the seat if these approval numbers stay the same.

NY State will lose two districts before 2012, so the Democrat-controlled State Legislature will probably chop up Wiener’s old district and meld the pieces with bluer parts of NYC.

It would still be great to see a Republican Wiener-snitching even for a year…

Steve Z on September 9, 2011 at 12:11 PM

I live in the Orthodox Jewish section of Queens (Kew Gardens Hills), which is a traditionally Democratic neighborhood. Most of the yard and store signs in my neighborhood are for…Bob Turner. That is simply amazing for this area.

I’ve been bombarded with cards, letters, and mailers from both candidates. Bob Turner’s message is very effective. Focusing on people’s frustation with Obama’s policies, the economy, and emphasizing strong values. Meanwhile, Weprin’s been trying to ride his being an Orthodox Jew and his ties to Israel, but that is not cutting it here. People are discounting the Israel thing as a non-factor and his pro-choice and pro-gay marriage stance has really hurt him. Orthodox Jews (and I am one of them) don’t really expect non-Orthodox Jews or non-devout Christians to be pro-life or in favor of traditional marriage, so when they aren’t, it’s a non-factor (think Schumer as an example). But when one of our own, who is Orthodox, takes a position that goes against our belief system, that does not sit well at all.

bigdubs on September 9, 2011 at 12:13 PM

Don’t forget the Israel factor in this district. Turner is strong on Israel, and while Weprin isn’t precisely weak, he’d be part of a Democratic minority that has become iffy to hostile on that subject.

Weprin is, in fact, running a snarky NY Democrat campaign as well. Turner seems to have a good chance. I’d be careful about calling the whole thing a “referendum on Obama,” but Obama certainly isn’t offering Weprin any coattails.

J.E. Dyer on September 9, 2011 at 12:14 PM

bigdubs on September 9, 2011 at 12:13 PM

Funny that our posts ended up next to each other. Not being a Jewish resident of the district, I’ve been going on what I hear from Jewish friends. They are saying pretty much the opposite about the significance of Israel to the campaign. But it’s good to get another perspective.

J.E. Dyer on September 9, 2011 at 12:16 PM

I’ll believe this is going to a Rep when I see it.

Hard Right on September 9, 2011 at 12:19 PM

Color me skeptical….that other special ny election looked good for the gop before the vote and the dem still won there

cmsinaz on September 9, 2011 at 11:20 AM

True, but just the fact that we’re even having this discussion about a true-blue district in NYC does not bode well for Democrats in other “swing” districts.

UltimateBob on September 9, 2011 at 12:19 PM

What we all need to understand is that ALL threads lead to Palin. Really.

bloggless on September 9, 2011 at 12:29 PM

Sure it looks promising, but remember that 6% is not outside the democratic margin of vote stealing. That 6% and more can easily be made up by dead people, illegal aliens, people that don’t exist and never did, etc.

In a special election, it’s also easy for crooks from outside the district voting to come in and claim residency.

Fingers crossed.

slickwillie2001 on September 9, 2011 at 12:33 PM

I wouldn’t be too confident about a Rep taking this seat. I mean come on, it’s New York.

bloggless on September 9, 2011 at 12:47 PM

bloggless on September 9, 2011 at 12:47 PM

Sarah… huge… coattails.

mike_NC9 on September 9, 2011 at 1:11 PM

“886 likely voters.”

The problem with polls in general is the sample population. Who defines it? How big is it?

Cui bono?

Skepticism continues in re polling.

warbaby on September 9, 2011 at 1:23 PM

Bob Turner is the Republican Candidate in this Special Election in New York. Here is a link to Bob Turner’s campaign web site:

http://www.bobturnerforcongress.com/Home.aspx

Let’s all do whatever we can to help Bob Turner win this election.

- If you are near this congressional district in New York, please volunteer.

- If you know people in this district, call them to encourage them to vote for Bob Turner

- Wherever you are, you can always post links to Bob Turner’s campaign web site to raise awareness of his campaign via the internet.

The election is on Tuesday September 13, so this weekend will be key in turning out the vote and spreading the word about Bob Turner.

Just imagine how ticked off Obama, Pelosi and the rest of the Democrats will be if a Republican wins this congressional seat!

Let’s make it happen!

Go team!

wren on September 9, 2011 at 2:01 PM

I may actually hurt myself from laughing if this thing actually plays out the way I think it’s going top play out. Go Turner!

eyedoc on September 9, 2011 at 2:19 PM

It. Is. The. PEOPLE’S SEAT.

NOT Weiner’s.

KMC1 on September 9, 2011 at 2:33 PM